Polls
An archive of the opinion polls we’ve commissioned from Panelbase.
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POLL 1 (August 2013)
Topics covered (analysis links in brackets):
- which powers SHOULD be devolved to Scotland? (1)
- which powers WILL be devolved to Scotland? (1)
- if Scotland was independent now, would you vote for Union? (1)
- which politicians are most truthful on independence (2), (7)
- opinion of “Better Together” campaign (2)
- opinions on media coverage (3), (8)
- does your preferred party share your view on independence? (4)
- does your Holyrood 2016 vote depend on the referendum outcome? (4)
- which of these things represents a threat to Scotland? (5), (6)
- which of these things does Trident protect Scotland against? (5), (6)
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POLL 1B (August 2013)
Topics covered:
- should the UK have four “national” sports teams? (1)
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POLL 2 (October 2013)
Topics covered:
- should Scotland be an independent country? (1)
- nuclear weapons (2)
- the monarchy (2)
- the bedroom tax (2)
- membership of the EU (2)
- voting rights for prisoners (2)
- assisted suicide (2)
- nationalisation of the railways (2)
- decriminalising recreational drugs (2)
- fracking (2)
- “page 3” pictures in newspapers (2)
- the death penalty (3)
- membership of NATO (3)
- the council tax freeze (3)
- privatising the Royal Mail (3)
- a written constitution (3)
- building new nuclear power stations (3)
- making the unemployed work for benefits (3)
- minimum pricing for alcohol (3)
- gender quotas for MSPs (3)
- anti-sectarianism football laws/OBFA (3)
- who would be the best leader for the No campaign? (4)
- which people/organisations are acting in the best interests of Scotland? (4)
- reasons for vote choice in independence referendum (5)
- personal constitutional preference in an ideal world (5)
- indyref vote if the Barnett Formula were to be abolished (5)
- indyref vote if the UK were to leave the EU (5)
- have your views on independence changed since the campaigns started? (6)
- which media outlets do you use? (6)
- would the Scottish people make an independent Scotland a success? (6)
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POLL 3 (April 2014)
Topics covered:
- should Scotland be an independent country? (1)
- which information source do you trust most on independence? (2)
- how actively are you seeking information about independence? (3)
- if undecided, are you leaning either way? (4)
- opinions on Labour devolution proposals (5)
- who do you think will be Prime Minister after the 2015 UK election? (6)
- will austerity continue, worsen or ease during the 2015-20 UK Parliament? (6)
- will there be an EU referendum during the 2015-20 UK Parliament? (6)
- how will Scotland be treated by the UK if it votes No? (6)
- what if the referendum ballot paper was two flags? (7)
- should working people need benefits for a liveable income? (8)
- should Scotland invest in renewable energy for long-term gains? (8)
- should Scotland refuse a share of UK debt if there’s no currency union? (8)
- should private schools continue to be treated as charities? (8)
- are there enough jobs for everyone if people look hard enough? (8)
- should the top rate of tax be higher than 45? (8)
- should the top rate of tax be higher than 50%? (8)
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POLL 4 (May 2014)
Topics covered:
- which areas of government are devolved to Holyrood? (1)
- have you changed your mind about independence in the last 18 months? (1)
- which football team do you support? (1)
- what currency would an independent Scotland use? (2)
- will Scotland be independent in the next 10 years? (2)
- will there be an EU referendum in the next 10 years? (2)
- will the UK leave the EU in the next 10 years? (2)
- will the English/Scottish NHS be privatised in the next 10 years? (2)
- will Boris Johnson become Prime Minister in the next 10 years? (2)
- will free university tuition be abolished in Scotland in the next 10 years? (2)
- will UKIP have more MPs than the Lib Dems in the next 10 years? (2)
- will tax and welfare be devolved to Holyrood in the next 10 years? (2)
- will your standard of living increase significantly in the next 10 years? (2)
- will UK armed forces be involved in another war in the next 10 years? (2)
- will there be a Labour First Minister in the next 10 years? (2)
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POLL 5 (November 2014)
- voting intentions (1)
- how would you vote in a second independence referendum? (1)
- EU referendum voting intentions (2)
- would a Scotland/England split on the EU justify a second indyref? (2)
- who should be the next Scottish Labour leader? (3)
- should Scottish party leaders always be MSPs rather than MPs? (4)
- should the Smith Commission proposals be subject to a referendum? (4)
- should Scottish MPs have a veto on UK legislation affecting Scotland? (4)
- should Holyrood have the power to hold referendums? (4)
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POLL 6 (January 2015)
*double poll, with full-size samples from Scotland and the rest of the UK
Topics covered:
- should the voting age be lowered to 16? (1)
- should non-threatening offensive comments on social media be prosecuted? (2)
- should people illegally downloading movies etc be imprisoned? (3)
- should the death penalty be brought back? (3)
- should the security services be able to monitor everyone’s communications? (3)
- should convicted rapist Ched Evans be able to resume his football career? (3)
- should the minimum wage be raised to the living wage? (4)
- should the NHS only be for those who can’t afford to pay? (4)
- should we build more nuclear power stations? (4)
- should we build more windfarms? (4)
- would you mind there being a windfarm in sight of your home? (4)
- would you mind there being a nuclear power station within 20 miles? (4)
- should energy companies be nationalised? (4)
- should the railways be renationalised? (4)
- should the UK electoral system be changed to proportional representation? (4)
- should private schools continue to be treated as charities for tax purposes? (4)
- should the UK continue to have nuclear weapons? (5)
- should defence spending be cut in favour of welfare spending? (5)
- is there too much immigration? (5)
- are immigrants treated as scapegoats for the country’s problems? (5)
- does cutting benefits help the economy? (5)
- should the unemployed have to work for benefits? (5)
- should Britain keep the monarchy? (5)
- is the BBC balanced and unbiased? (6)
- does England subsidise the rest of the UK? (6)
- should the UK leave the EU? (6)
- do pensioners get preferential treatment from governments?
- should there be “English votes for English laws”?
- should council tenants have the right to buy their house?
- should voting be compulsory?
Other analysis: (7)
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POLL 7 (May 2015)
Topics covered:
- voting intention (1)
- how would you have voted had the Smith powers been on the indyref ballot? (1)
- is there a difference in UK attitudes towards Scotland since the referendum? (2)
- which football club do you support? (3)
- do you back the Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act (OBFA)? (3)
- do you back the ban on alcohol at football matches? (3)
- would you prefer a majority Labour UK government or coalition with the SNP? (3)
- do you support Full Fiscal Autonomy (FFA) for Scotland? (3)
- would you pay for the BBC if it was a subscription service? (4)
- is the current “Rangers” a new club? (4)
- do you back consensual stop-and-search for under-12s? (5)
- do you back the “Named Person” legislation for child welfare? (5)
- are female politicians better than male ones? (5)
- should social-housing tenants have the right to buy at a discount? (5)
- who controls Scottish Labour policy – the Scottish leader or the UK one?
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POLL 8 (July 2015)
Topics covered:
- which websites do you visit regularly for political content? (1)
- how did you react to Labour ruling out an electoral deal with the SNP? (2)
- should Alistair Carmichael resign? (3)
- should the Scottish Government raise or lower taxes? (4), (7)
- can any of the Labour leadership candidates win in 2020? (5)
- which unions (UK and/or EU) should Scotland be in? (6), (8)
- does the Scotland Bill live up to the pre-referendum promises? (9)
- should Scottish Labour become an autonomous party? (10)
- have you been subjected to abuse over your political views? (11)
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POLL 9 (November 2015)
Topics covered:
- how would you vote in a second independence referendum? (1)
- do you understand Labour’s position on Trident? (2)
- which politics TV and radio shows do you watch/listen to? (3)
- should the House Of Lords be abolished? (4)
- how should the SNP and Labour treat the House Of Lords? (4)
- should Michelle Mone have been made a peer? (4)
- would you EVER vote for independence? (5)
- should the Scottish Government raise taxes to mitigate benefit cuts? (6)
- if it should make cuts elsewhere instead, which departments should be cut? (6)
- which level of government impacts most directly on your life? (6)
- how likely is it that Labour will win the 2020 election? (7)
- is the current regulation of the press adequate?
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POLL 10 (January 2016)
Topics covered:
- views on various types of energy sources (1)
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POLL 11 (February 2017)
Topics covered:
- council election voting intentions (1)
- should Scotland be an independent country? (2)
- constitutional preference on independence and the EU (2)
- which elections could Labour win? (2)
- independence support by football allegiance (3)
- who was the best-ever First Minister? (4)
- when should there be a second independence referendum? (5)
- what should be Scotland’s national anthem? (6)
- are the other countries of the UK subsidised by England? (7)
- how many of the No campaign’s indyref promises were kept? (8)
- should the UK keep Trident, and if so where? (9), (10)
- is Scottish media’s political coverage balanced? (11)
- are gender (and other) quotas a good idea? (12)
- how important is the economy to your view of independence? (13)
- which media outlets are pro-/anti-independence? (14)
- is Theresa May or Nicola Sturgeon doing the better job? (14)
- which electoral system/s should Scotland use? (15)
- social attitudes: immigration, nationalisation, monarchy, hanging etc (16)
- should the Offensive Behaviour at Football Act (OBFA) be scrapped? (17)
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POLL 12 (December 2017)
Topics covered:
- would you vote for independence if it meant staying in the EU? (1)
- what’s the best Scottish movie of all time? (2)
- will Jeremy Corbyn ever be Prime Minister (3)
- when should the next UK general election be? (3)
- should there be a second EU referendum once the deal is known? (3)
- who will you support at the World Cup? (4)
- should the Scottish Government spend money supporting Gaelic? (5)
- young people’s voting intentions (6)
- who should decide about a second independence referendum? (7)
- is transgender self-ID a good idea? (8)
- is the sugar tax a good idea? (9)
- what’s the best outcome of a UK election for Scotland? (10)
- should Kezia Dugdale have gone on I’m A Celebrity? (11)
- should the Scottish Government raise taxes to fund public services? (12)
- how are Scottish public services performing against the rest of the UK? (13)
- why did you vote for the Conservatives/the SNP this year? (14)
- do you understand the difference between a hard and soft Brexit? (15)
- should Orange and/or political marches be banned? (16)
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POLL 13 (May 2018)
(English-born residents of England)
Topics covered:
- should corrections in newspapers be as big as the original lie? (1)
- would you sacrifice Scotland/NI/Gibraltar to ensure Brexit happens? (2), (11)
- which countries would you like England to join a union with? (3)
- would you like more federalism in the UK, or less? (4)
- who would you prefer to see as Prime Minister? (5)
- if Scotland was an independent EU country, would you move there? (6)
- is transgender self-ID a good idea? (7)
- what would you do about Trident if Scotland was independent? (8)
- should people be jailed for offensive but non-threatening tweets? (9)
- should countries bomb each other if they feel like it? (10)
- do you know who the current UKIP leader is? (11)
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POLL 14 (June 2018)
Topics covered:
- Holyrood/Westminster voting intentions (1)
- timing of a second independence referendum (2)
- should any other countries be run by their larger neighbour? (3)
- correlation between football club support and religion (4)
- views on devolved public services (5)
- positive and negative views of political media outlets (6)
- would you be prepared to rent Faslane to the rUK for Trident? (7)
- would you rather be more aligned with the US or the EU? (8)
- opinions about the Westminster “power grab” (9)
- which powers are, and which should be, devolved? (9)
- Yes and No voters’ attitudes to the EU (10)
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POLL 15 (March 2019)
Topics covered (analysis links in brackets):
- Holyrood voting intentions (1)
- recognition of Richard Leonard (2), (7)
- various transgender/women’s issues (3)
- do only Unionists like rugby? (4)
- independence and Brexit (5)
- “strict liability” and OBFA (6)
- Scotland’s relationship with the UK and the EU (8)
- what currency should an independent Scotland use? (9)
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POLL 16 (April 2019)
(Two full-sized samples, Scottish and English voters)
Topics covered (analysis links in brackets):
- what do you understand the words “gender” and “sex” to mean?
- should biological males be allowed to compete in women’s sports?
- can human beings ever actually change sex?
- should the Scottish football authorities introduce “strict liability”?
- was it a good idea to abolish the Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act?
We’re not too sure why we asked the strict-liability and OBFA questions again so soon, as they were only asked to the Scottish sample. Oddly, we don’t seem to have written about this poll at all, except for a passing mention of the OBFA numbers here, perhaps as all the results are basically identical to the March ones.
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POLL 17 (September 2019)
(SNP voters only)
Topics covered (analysis links in brackets):
- independence voting intention (1)
- what is the SNP’s goal regarding Brexit? (2)
- what SHOULD BE the SNP’s goal regarding Brexit? (2)
- will there be a second indyref before the 2021 Holyrood election? (3)
- should the SNP pass Brexit in return for permanent indyref powers? (3)
- would you prefer independence or the UK avoiding Brexit? (4)
- which parties have you voted for prior to voting SNP? (4)
- would you consider voting for a new pro-independence list party? (5)
- demographics of SNP voters (6)
- what should be the SNP’s strategy to secure a second referendum? (7)
- views on transgender/women’s issues (8)
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POLL 18 (October 2019)
(Double-sized sample, Scotland/England/Wales)
- which facts on a person’s birth certificate should be alterable? (1)
- should the four UK nations each have a veto on major issues like Brexit? (2)
- which is most important, Brexit or saving the Union? (3)
- should there be a new Brexit referendum? (3)
- which options should be offered in any new Brexit referendum? (3)
- would the result of a new Brexit referendum be respected by Parliament? (3)
- should children be separated at school on the basis of religion? (3)
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POLL 19 (April 2020)
- independence voting intention (1)
- was there a conspiracy to convict Alex Salmond? (2)
- various transgender/women’s issues (3)
- various political issues around coronavirus (4)
- what should be done about football and coronavirus? (5)
- would you sacrifice the SNP to secure independence? (6)
- support for Universal Basic Income (7)
- what circumstances should trigger a second independence referendum? (8)
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POLL 20 (June 2020)
- will the 2021 election trigger a second independence referendum? (1)
- which Parliament should decide about a second referendum, and why? (2)
- who should get to remain anonymous in sexual assault trials? (3)
- should public money be used to support newspapers? (4)
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POLL 21 (July 2020)
(Two full-sized samples, Scottish and English voters)
- should there be Scotland/England border controls to fight coronavirus? (1)
- will polling force the UK government to grant a second indyref? (2)
- have circumstances changed enough since 2014 to justify a new indyref? (2)
- would you vote for an Alex Salmond-led Holyrood list party? (3)
- views on transgender/women’s issues (English sample) (4)
