All the damn vampires
There were no surprises in our latest Panelbase poll with regard to the independence question, at least not in terms of the headline figures – in line with a flurry of recent polls they came out at Yes 46% No 54%, with 2016’s Brexit vote seemingly having caused almost equal numbers of people to change sides since 2014.
But as readers will know, we usually like to probe a little bit deeper into the thoughts of our respondents than other media do, so we asked a few more questions on the subject. And the results of that were just plain weird.
Firstly, for the sake of comparison we asked a question that Panelbase samples have been asked for over a year and a half. And what it’s found every time is that when presented with four options for Scotland’s relationship with the UK and Europe, the single most popular choice is an independent Scotland inside the EU.
JULY 2015
SEPTEMBER 2016
FEBRUARY 2017
As we suggested last month, the option described by Kezia Dugdale as being the choice of the “vast majority” of Scots – being inside both the UK and the EU – has now slipped to THIRD place, five points down from 2015. Only the extreme-isolationist position of being outside both the UK and the EU is less popular.
But we wondered what would happen if you confronted respondents with the reality that Dugdale’s choice is simply no longer an option at all – Scots CANNOT remain in the EU if they stay in the UK, because the UK is leaving the EU and taking us with it. So we cut the options to three, and this happened:
Support for independence inside the EU rose by six points, but most of the people who wanted to stay in both the UK and the EU – 16% – plumped for the UK when they could only have one of the two unions.
Alert readers will have noticed, however, that independence now has a combined 48% to the UK’s 43%. The Yes camp’s problem is that its vote is split over Europe.
None of which is perhaps very surprising, because the correlation between voting No and voting Leave is a pretty strong one. A clear majority of Remain voters (ironically enough, 55% to 45%) back independence, but Leavers are No by just over two to one.
It’s quite plain (were it ever in doubt) that No is essentially a British-nationalist position, and the hopes of the Yes movement that Brexit would tip the scales among left-wing internationalist Scots have been somewhat overly optimistic.
However much people might wish otherwise, the independence debate boils down to a contest between two nationalisms – an outward-looking, civic Scottish one that wants to be part of Europe and the world, and an inward-looking, imperial British one that’s belligerently hostile to foreigners – and currently the British one is still on top, crucially assisted by the small minority of Yes voters who actually ARE the narrow nationalists that the entire Yes side was painted as during the indyref.
Any dispute about that assertion was pretty comprehensively shattered by the next questions we asked. Firstly we inquired about Labour’s electoral prospects:
No great shocks there. Just 15% of voters think there’s any realistic possibility of the party winning the 2020 UK election, and even fewer – 13% – believe it’s got any hope of winning at Holyrood in 2021. Even among the rump who voted Scottish Labour at the general election just nine months ago, only a quarter think it’s got any chance of winning either election. (25% and 24% respectively, to be precise.)
But when we asked how the prospect of permanent Tory government affected people’s views on independence, something really peculiar happened.
The thought of eternal Tory rule at Westminster made Labour voters 5% LESS likely to vote for independence (28% down to 23%), but made Tory voters MORE likely to – from 11% up to 14%, with the number of Don’t Knows also jumping from 2% to 7%.
Now, in truth we weren’t exactly staggered to uncover the latent British nationalism in some Scottish Labour voters, who regularly tell us they’d rather be ruled by Tories for decades or even centuries so long as it was under a Union Jack rather than a Saltire.
(Also, since they have no hope of being in power at Holyrood again and they actually hate the SNP more than they hate the Tories, it’s logical from their perspective.)
But we’ve been scratching our heads for the last 24 hours trying to make sense of the increased Tory support for independence in the event of a permanently Tory UK, and we’ve got nothing. Any suggestions gratefully received.
And don’t think that’s an end to the oddness. Stay tuned, folks.
Not exactly cheering reading for indy supporters, but then again A50 hasn’t been triggered yet.
Well this is depressing, what’s it going to take to sway no voters??
Perhaps just a sampling anomaly? It’s not impossible, and it would be nice if the earlier results on this one were suspect too.
Time and again in canvassing we run across No voters who want to wait and see what the final Brexit deal looks like. These people are still going to say No to pollsters – but they exist. And not all are Remainers.
The rise in Tory attitudes to independence when faced with perpetual Tory government down South, can, I suggest, best be explained by a lingering sentiment for the old ‘wet’ Scottish Conservative party. In other words, the loyalty to the May/Davis/Fox wing of the party is conditional and temporary.
Any Tory vote for Independent Scotland is coming from tired old ermine-crusted cap-doffers, whose only hope for ever having blood pump through their collapsed haemorrhoidal veins in anything like enough pace or volume to get it up, is the thought of governing in the Parliament of not just one Sovereign nation, but two.
Truth is, as we’ve always known, Unionism within Scotland, both with and without a Scottish accent, is clinging doggedly to a view of Britannia which fits its own world view. It may be repugnant and flawed, but it runs deep nonetheless.
Just makes those North of the Border look as thick as those South of it in political terms.
Depressing but better to know the score anyway.
If the impoverished, deprived and politically latent don’t get out and vote I fear we are done for. Just how do you motivate if folks don’t really care ??
Good grief, more polls, am away to trim the grass with scissors.
Aye, there’s nowt as queer as folk!
Sampling error?
Ultimately, it’s grim-reading to find out that Scotland will be held in the UK because of an ugly British nationalism that I, personally, just don’t experience and find completely alien.
But in the end… The Yes campaign needs to sort it out. I’m not bringing my family up in Brexit Britain; I’ll emigrate if the next vote goes the wrong way.
Those Tory supporters may actually have been right wing Labour supporters who could not vote for the current labour leadership. If faced with an eternal UK Tory government, they may plump for independence to improve their chances.
Seems on this snapshot that some folk still refuse to believe that bad stuff will happen to them. Worse, that they are aware bad stuff will happen, they simply don’t care so long as its someone else.
The small shift in the right direction is heartening, considering there has been no indy campaign and the unionists and their media never really stopped, but it needs to continue.
How and ever, the media and the political class have a lot to answer for.
What’s it going to take to sway No voters someone asked?
Working our damn socks off for a start. Counteracting Project Fear two for a second. Not wasting any time trying to persuade British nationalists that the UK is bad for Scotland. They don’t care – they only care that it is better for the UK as a whole.
Spend time persuading the persuadable and regaining previous Yes voters where possible. And hope to God that the SNP and the Yes campaign get the best strategists money can buy.
Well maybe I’m being weird here but the tables for July 2015, September 2016 and February 2017 look statistically very similar. No surprise since brexit hasn’t started yet.
The other qustions? By the time the last question was asked – the tory support for independence – most folk just wanted the interrogation to stop?
I’m not a great fan of the EU but to vote against your country having the kind of autonomy that’s enjoyed by the likes of France, Germany, Sweden, Finland, Denmark etc is beyond my understanding. Why must anti EU voters always cite Greece as the bogyman? Why would Scotland be like Greece and not like Denmark?
It’s the classic “snatching defeat from the jaws of victory” again for Scotland isn’t it? Now I’m depressed.
Hopefully the next poll covers all the options, including an independent Scotland in the EEA instead of in the EU…
British conservatism, small c, would appear to be solidly entrenched within voters of the UK Parties.
It would be interesting to see this broken down by age groupings. Are we really going to have to wait until the baby-boomers have all gone? Kinda looks that way.
As stated above A50 has not been triggered. The papers and the news are in full “dunkirk” mode and it is difficult to see any news at all that is actually relevant.
What we have is Buzz words and Mantras, Brexit is Brexit, the best deal for a Global Britain..etc.
I strongly believe that when the shit actually starts hitting the fan, it will become progressively harder for the media to run with everything is fine bullshit.
They only have enough wallpaper for a couple of cracks and even a compliant media cannot rebuild the wall.
I have never believed that the EU is a deal breaker for many. Hardly anyone really likes it, though most in Scotland are in favour for pragmatic reasons. Those who wish to leave also believe they are being pragmatic, though some are passionate against the EU and I think there are more of them than of passionate supporters.
I believe the SG has to call indyref2, win or lose, because it is a manifesto commitment and goes to the heart of their mandate and their integrity. Brexit is the trigger and so must be central to the campaign. But it is a mistake to rest on that. It is a proxy for Scotland’s powerless position within the UK: and the damage that inflicts on our lives. This is the main message we are failing to get across: it is hard for me to understand why people still accept the MSM and WM message.
Surely the example of Norway and the other north european social democracies ought to make the case by itself.
Surely the fact that WM opposes independence is evidence enough that their economic nonsense is false. Does anyone really believe the UK is altruistic? If not why do they wish to retain what they claim is a drain on their resources? (For the record I do not believe it is solely to prop up economy: rUK would do as well or as badly with us or without is in the long run. Another factor is they do not want a successful social democracy where their electorate can see it, because that would give the lie to TINA and make them responsible for what is currently seen as almost a law of nature with no author)
As to why tory support for indy would rise in face of permanent tory rule: remember that some Scottish tories are still old style. They perhaps oppose one party rule in any guise, since they are still democrats. Sadly it appears that one party rule does not phase labour supporters: but we knew that since they did not cry about labour dominance in Scotland: it only became a one party state when the dominant party changed
We live in a nation of brilliant midfielders given the opportunity to score
They pass!
It’s not always about Queen and country loyalty, much of it is just downright cowardice hidden under the banner of sensibility
Scotland has a half empty glass whereas England has a half full glass because they’re confident they’ll go out and steal the other half from someone else
The only weak theory I can come up with is those polled Tory voters might consider that “no Labour government” question to include the possibility of an UKIP government. Or at least replacing Labour in the opposition.
Could it be Q6 is measuring likely voters and Q19 is measuring all responses?
Isn’t the propensity for some Scottish Tory voters to support independence when presented with the prospect of permanent Tory rule simply explained by the fact they are not Tories?
Let me explain, these will be people who leant their vote to the Tories in order to beat the SNP at the last election.
Deep down they are not Tories and would rather independence than permanent Tory rule.
At least they have a limit and know when the jig is up.
So the 44.x% is now a solid 46% – excellent news and a brilliant platform to start Indy Ref2. Remember – IndyRef#1 started from around 30% YES. If we can increase the current YES support by a similar margin, it’ll be a Nigel Tranter.
But no slacking. The hard graft is still to come and no one is shirking from it.
…I give up! (for today anyway….)
With two distinct worlds on offer of such polar opposite positions people go for the option of right wing imperialistic control devised to protect and enhance the fortunes of the few.
Their choice screams I am too thick to manage my own affairs. My betters will permit some of their wealth to dribble down…how do you even begin to address that view of the choices on offer???
Probably rugger buggers, on the way back from Murrayfield last match. When the pipers stopped playing Flower of Scotland anthem, after the first verse, the whole of Murrayfield kept on singing, all of it, without them. Rather stirring, frankly.
link to youtube.com
I think it’s true that an independent Scotland would at some stage return a Tory/centre-right government. This is to be welcomed in the limited sense that it would mean Scotland is a normal country and not a country being tipped out of the rowing boat by the elephant at the other end. As an independent nation we could have a sensible and balanced political dialogue. Also a Scottish Tory/centre-right party would be free to be something different and less right wing than it’s English counterpart.
Think I saw an opinion poll last week, taken from a Polish paper I believe, that had 88% for YES.
I don’t know how many European nationals were interviewed for this poll but I believe the status of our European friends will be a big decider in the next indy ref. Last time a great many, I believe, were swayed by the LIES from Broon and co. about voting NO to stay in the E.U. Now that that particular LIE has been well and truly destroyed it does appear that most Europeans are now switching to YES.
I don’t know how much affect, if any, the European nationals will have on indy ref #2 but it could be the straw that gets us over the line if polling figures continue to be relatively close, in my view.
“Any suggestions gratefully received”
Employ some Critical Social Theory practitioners. Proper ones. 🙂
At the risk of alienating the people we need to win back, what kind of person looks at what has happened in the UK since 2014 and decides that maybe it’s best to stick with it after all? Incredible.
Pre campaign it is understandable the stats are a little subdued. People may have had their fill of politics and change. But then again for most the only change folk will have seen is the cost of holidays increasing. Brexit hasn’t bitten yet. Once it does and once yes puts forward concrete plans I expect to see the polls change.
We can’t expect cautious former no voters to get behind a proposition that right now has no meat on the bones. We don’t know what Brexit will look like or independence for that matter.
It will take time and plenty of work. For example- Guy Verhofstadt’s courting of Scotland this week was a big deal to me but I’m guessing 19 out of 20 will not even have heard of him.
A slow clap has to go out to the UK media who have been dutifully playing down fears, dismissing the Scottish Government’s efforts to keep us in the EU single market and attacking everything going the Scottish government does.
The process of softening people up continues every single day and will not let up.
One aspect that really bothers me is the strength of Scotland’s economy is underplayed, and simple deceptive soundbites are allowed to embed. We saw the pish at the weekend from Andrew Neil and the queue- do Scots know we are a radically different country to the EU candidates? With a GDP between 5 and 10 times each of the other countries trying to join the club?
Do they know how the EU is actively spending billions trying to help those candidates, to help get their government, laws, infrastructure and economy into the kind of shape we are already in?
Do they know our strengths?
Time will tell. We have plenty of work to do. Exiting times – frustrating too.
The simple truth is, that the people who are doing alright from the Union will get their arses down to the polling booths (and be engaged enough with politics to sign up to do polling surveys).
But the poor don’t.
We need a campaign to engage the poorest people in our society to get out and vote for their own and their kids/relatives sake.
DON’T GET ENRAGED, GET ENGAGED!
Or something along these lines. make people feel they have something to fight for, let people see that the poverty that they are surrounded with just didn’t happen, it happens because the rich Tory/ Labour types in Westminster have contempt for them and think they are not worth bothering about.
Let people see that if they don’t vote they will keep being treated with contempt
The problem is that some of our poorest communities just shrug their shoulders when you mention Brexit because they are already unemployed and skint, so why should they worry about the job losses and financial impact of it.
And when these people do get hammered down the line, they just except it and still don’t vote.
I blame the Labour Party for creating this apathy in Scotland among our poorest communities.
“But we’ve been scratching our heads for the last 24 hours trying to make sense of the increased Tory support for independence in the event of a permanently Tory UK, and we’ve got nothing. Any suggestions gratefully received.”
Haven’t a clue why. But I am sure it’ll make disturbing reading for a certain Ruth ‘Bomber’ Harrison.
Q19 the figures in the table don’t add up.
415 + 466 + 117 = 998 not 1028.
Thought that was absolutely BRILLIANT Heedtracker. It fair gets the hairs rising up on the back o the neck.
Watching it I got to thinking. (Don’t worry meds are on the way 😀 )
There was the Pipe Major standing there after the first verse whilst the crowd carried on regardless. I wondered if he got to thinking “Damn we should have carried on with the second verse.” Of course he would probably have been hit by a second thought “On seconds thoughts glad we didn’t … if we had no doubt they bastards would have carried on wi the third bloody verse!” 😀
we are now commited to holding indyref2 in the next 18 months whether it is the right time or not
have to agree with stu, the eu is an issue we have to deal with otherwise we lose indyref2
we need an euref2 once indy to partly kick the eu issue into the long grass
we also need to offer somthing to yes/leavers to bring them back onboard
we need to campaign to drop eu membership but for efta/eea membership
this option satifies the greatest number of voters
These fascinating polls show one thing is certain, Scots aren’t ready to say YES in the immediate term.
Even after a YES campaign starts up, it would be difficult to get YES into a significant lead.
I suspect people who don’t follow politics blow by blow (the majority) haven’t thought much about what Brexit will mean and how it will effect them personally.
Brexit is going to be bad. The only question is, how bad? The media aren’t exactly painting a realistic picture of some of the many dreadful scenarios which could follow!
Move forward, 3,6,12,18 months and the option of Brexit UK is going to look far worse than it is being perceived today!
Just wait until post-Article 50, the EU delivers the details (and massive price) for the divorce, the talks falter, discussing trade agreements slip into the never-never, the impact on prices, jobs, pound and economy are evident for all to see …. then how many voters will be comfortable with Brexit UK?
Labour’s remaining voters are pretty much hard unionists. Ironically this makes Dugdale’s stance on Independence logical.
If she supported Independence she wouldn’t gain support as Labour is a shambles. Oppose Independence and she loses what little she has.
Perhaps conflating all Tories is rather like conflating Labour Blairites with Labour socialists – just confusing.
It seems perfectly possible for, say, farmers, small businessmen and sole traders to be Tory by inclination and to vote that way in practice but to feel that managing affairs closer to home is better, and removing the benefits of the EU, not to mention, say, publicly available health and care services are unsustainable, indeed destructive, options in the longer term – and these are the preferred options of the current Tory ideology. One Nation Tourism might be these voters preferred option, but they might see it as more likely to be attainable in an independent Scotland.
@Arbroath1320: 12:56
Yes. But how many will be deported before the vote? We need to get on with it
What kinivie says. There’s some have faith still in a Scotland in the UK in the EU razzmatazz with Sturgeon and May, and there’s some still don’t believe the hard Brexit, and there’s some don’t even want to think about a referendum yet, go away, I’m watching paint dry.
46% is good. And the don’t knows have it, the don’t knows have it.
It proves you cant trust polls.
I meant to say support Independence as she loses what little she has.
Yeah, and the constituent, does it have 16-17 year olds, and particularly does it have EU residents, 130,000 or something.
Maybe an offer of a snap EUref if we go independent to see how people feel in an iScotland and make it easier for narrower ones to cross back over the road.
For a long time, looking in from the outside, I have always been of the opinion that the SNP has been too reasonable towards the unionists, and these poll findings only confirm me in that. When you have so-called Labour people who are actually exultant about a Union which would see the Tories in permanent government, then it’s time to start using the kind of language which the nationalists should have been using long since. Language like “("Tractor" - Ed)s”, “collaborators”, “("Quizmaster" - Ed)s” and “Judases”. You’ve really gone as far as you can with reason alone. You’re just going to have to split the country and force people to pick sides. In all honesty, you were never going to make that final stretch for independence without that kind of emotionalism anyway. I would have cheered it you’d done it, but I never really believed it was possible, not after 300 years of entrenched unionism. People need something beyond logic to make that final leap, otherwise they will always balk at the final hurdle. 45% was as high as argument by itself was ever going to take you. Now it’s time for phase two.
As for increased Tory support for independence in the event of permanent Tory government, maybe that has something to do with the historical nature of Scottish conservatism (small ‘c’). Remember, the Tories themselves never had any real support in Scotland. It was always the Scottish Unionists who were the dominant conservative force. Toryism is a purely English phenomenon and the Scottish Unionists, however closely aligned they might have been with the Tories at Westminster, were always a separate, more centrist grouping who supported the union because they believed it was good for Scotland (rightly or wrongly). The point is, their loyalty was to Scotland in the Union, not the Union in Scotland. To quote John Buchan, a good unionist must first be a good nationalist. Small ‘c’ conservatism started to die in Scotland when the Tories forced the merger of the two parties in the 1960s. It was the mirror of Labour’s maniacal centralization and just as poisonous for Scotland.
As time goes by, the Union is being seen for what it actually is – Greater England. You really need to stand up and shout out loud and unashamedly that Scotland is effectively an occupied country, and that if you are loyal to the Union, then by extension, you are loyal to England. There really is no room left for any other position.
I wish I could say I was surprised.
Outside of the usual blogs, and only a small percentage of them, who is making the case for Europe? Who is highlighting the critical importance of Independence? We are all being left to work it out for ourselves.
This phoney war period, where Brexit was going to darken the dies and poison the drinking water is being allowed to turn into the “Brexit isn’t so bad” delusion. Brexit is rank stupidity, but the fools are revelling in it.
To be frank, the only material compromise coming from anybody has come from the SNP, stepping back from full EU membership and bargaining for mere access to the single market, and I for one, am deeply unimpressed with that. I voted to remain in the EU, not the make do booby prize of EU Lite.
The SNP has done well playing for position on Europe’s agenda, but on our constitutional sovereignty? Nothing. On Scots law? Nothing. On the legitimacy of the UK Supreme Court? Nothing. The legitimacy of Westminster? Nothing. The competency of the Act of Union? Nothing. I could go on about the media and the missing pro Indy narrative, but I’d only raise my blood pressure.
I am left hoping that these matters are being addressed covertly, and there are big howitzers lining up to make the case for Indy being strategically deployed on the quiet, just waiting for the nod. The problem is, that expectation pretty much sums up my personal expectations throughout the YES campaign in 2014, but those big guns never did open up, and the BritNat liars and hostile media were allowed to walk in and steal our Independence.
How many people in Scotland know or care that Scottish MP’s were told to sit down and shut up in Westminster? Where is the outrage? Does anybody even appreciate what it meant? Or care?
It feels like we are jockeying for Independence for political anoraks; an obscure game of political oneupmanship which might win a pedestrian game of chess with Westminster, but the impression I am seeing is that it’s leaving the Scottish electorate cold, disinterested and deflated. They’re not adjusting their minds to Independence, they are adjusting their minds to Brexit.
We’re not going to trip over Independence somewhere down the line, we have to win it. I have lost count of how many times I have said so, but our Scottish Government must seize the initiative and keep hold of it. They are not doing so.
link to thenational.scot
Good story. West end Rock?
“When the pipers stopped playing Flower of Scotland anthem, after the first verse, the whole of Murrayfield kept on singing, all of it, without them”
Um, yes, that’s how they’ve done it at the rugby for years now. Wish football would follow suit.
“trying to make sense of the increased Tory support for independence in the event of a permanently Tory UK, and we’ve got nothing.”
Top of head, if you had Corbyn, the rUK would go left, and so would Scotland with it, but if the rUK has Tories there’s more chance Scotland won’t go too far left as it would not be able to compete in the marketplace.
What it does mean though, is that Tories ARE looking at the possibility of Independence. And that’s a good thing.
What you should do in the next poll, Stu, is stick the same question at the start AND the end. I guarantee they will have different results.
Reason: people are strange.
Initially, I was a little depressed upon seeing these figures. Especially the one with the only three realistic options.
However, what the figures do show is that there is movement since 2014.
They also show that there is movement based on circumstances presented.
This could be good news because it shows that movement is possible. Not everyone is entrenched and some views can be changed, depending on how people see the circumstances.
So I choose to hope that when an indyref 2 campaign is in its midst, we will be well served by the Yes campaign, who will hopefully have worked out how to appeal to and push the buttons of as broad a spectrum of Scottish society as is possible (and mean to do right by them all, of course).
As someone above said, for many they will need to see the ‘meat on the bones’ of any indyref 2 and what it will mean for our society should be vote Yes (or should we vote No again, for that matter. And in this case, the likes of G Brown shouldn’t be allowed again to get away with lies about how safe the NHS is in the UK’s hands, for instance).
Hopefully, these things done in the campaign, most movement will be firmly in our favour.
G says:
That, I find the most difficult thing to get my head round.
The UK now, and the way it is going, if not the UK they voted against in 2014, it is MUCH worse.
Perhaps they really hate the EU and believed that in 2014 iScotland wouldn’t be in the EU.
I would propose to anyone that the EU’s negative influences on Scotland are a tiny fraction of what WM brings down about us. If it’s a straight choice, the UK is the union which is and will cause far more damage.
“Q19 the figures in the table don’t add up.”
The rest are Would Not Vote.
Ah, same and opposite for Labour decreasing. They’re taken in by their own hype about Tartan Tories for the SNP, and think if it’s Tories in the rUK that increases the chance of right-wing politics in Scotland.
Heedcracker@12:51…
Beware the 90/80 minute nationalist.
I think that a good % of the Scots ‘nation’ have been on a subconscious ‘downer’ since Flodden; easily subscribing to the 2 small, 2 poor, 2 stupid mantra of the Yoons that have both walked amongst and ruled us for centuries. (The ones Burns famously described as being “a parcel o rogues”). It’s a tough nut to crack for many.
Keep calm and carry on. I’m focusing on the 48% who would vote for independence v 43% who would vote for the UK.
I would expect that 48% figure to grow as BREXIT approaches, in particular, once A50 is triggered. The May Local Elections will be a big test.
The BBC is complicit in constantly pushing the narrative that ‘everything’ is going to be fine come Brexit.
Once Article 50 is triggered the BBC will not be able to shrug off the reality of economic collapse, panic and flight as the two year period of Brexit talks comes to an end with no deal in sight.
We really need to know what people will go for given the choice of an independent Scotland IN the EU and a UK OUT of the EU. I can’t get that from the questions above, or am I missing something?
There really is no room left for any other position.
Its much more nuanced. People are inherently conservative and always risk assessing. Is Scotland running Scotland a risk that I can cope with and even gain from?
Each SNP Scot gov that passes lowers risk as an assessment, in face of relentless tory BBC led media monstering we know. But it comes down to this simple aspect of human nature. Cost benefit risk analysis, at its most basic, is what we do before we do anything, from emigrating to cycling and ofcourse, your nationality.
gala
i think you are correct, the background to indyref2 will be the fallout from leaving the single market
it is access to the single market which will be the main issue of indyref2, not the currency, as per salmond on sunday politics
leave supporters will begin to see how important this access is, if the indy supporters are offering this via the “Norway” type deal, as was proposed by farage, bojo and many others during the euref, this will swing them towards yes.
Perhaps a bit sweeping to brand all Yes-voting EU Leavers as “the small minority of Yes voters who actually ARE the narrow nationalists”.
There are, for example, SNP-voting fishermen who were sold down the river by the UK government when Scotland’s fishing grounds – one third of the best on the continental shelf – were bargained away for EEC entry in the 1970s. Some of them at least are holding out hope that the grounds could be restored with Brexit. A tough call – if your home, family and community has depended on fishing for generations, and the possibilities are present uncertainty, possible relocation of the family and death of that community, or maybe security and prosperity, then the latter might well be the first thing you want.
“The rest are Would Not Vote.”
In which case it doesn’t directly compare with Q6 where the numbers DO add up. Difficult one. Polls often don’t compare completely.
robertknight says:
Heedcracker@
agreed, but we dont need to appeal to all of them, just enough to win indyref2
I’ve done many Panelbase and Yougov polls. This one immediately jumped out at me as being more sensible. I suspected it might be one of Rev’s. As the survey continued I knew it was Rev’s because it asked questions the unionists wouldn’t do. The answers would not allow them to twist the responses to suit their agenda.
Until A50 is triggered, and we see Brussels/EU response to it, the full horror of Brexit will not enter the consciousness of the Not Yet voters. They are the ones we need to convince. Once we have them we’ve won. We then work on the not-so-firm NOs and the majority will be even greater.
Campaigning at present for council elections is just starting the groundwork for #indy2. It is far too early to push the independence button. The ones we need to convince will not listen till they see for themselves what Brexit would mean. They voted Not-Yet in 2014 because they thought they knew that No would keep things the same as they’d always been – which they are only slowly beginning to see is not true.
I spent 18th September 2014 with a small group of people I discovered were Not Yet. I hadn’t thought of that until that day. Their hearts said Independence, but their heads didn’t think the time was right. I tried convincing them that there may never be a more “right” time.
Once they see what a NO vote this time would mean they will listen to their hearts. The problem in 2014 was that nobody would admit that the status quo would not be the result of NO. BT kept pushing their agenda that YES would mean all these terrible things, yet nobody pushed the “NO means all these terrible things”. So many NO voters naively believed things would just stay the same after a NO vote. This time there will be 2 clear outcomes put to the electorate.
The true horrors of tRump and Brexit will slowly dawn on the Not Yets. Once they are clamouring for #indy2 we’ve won.
Unbelievable that Iain Smart wrote that Tweet above. The contempt they have for their own people is just disgusting.
McMexican political stand off.
Fuck it.
Eyes up Canada again.
The problem is how the 11% who want an independent Scotland outside Europe break when presented with a binary choice. Almost all of them (8:3 or better) need to switch to Indy Scot in EU to get us over the line. (All else being equal).
I suggest strongly targeting them with the message of wait & see how the rUK does post-brexit before deciding on how they really feel about the EU.
It’s going to be a hard fight, but it’s winnable.
I have seen YESsers saying they’re sick of referendums and wouldn’t vote next time. I think some are genuine (know at least one is/was/is/was), and I think they will vote in the end. Well, “know” they will (I’m very opinioniated). Might be worth looking at the “won’t vote” for what proportion were YES last time. Won’t vote comes to 3% which is a significant amount.
yesindyref2 says:
Yeah, and the constituent, does it have 16-17 year olds, and particularly does it have EU residents, 130,000 or something.
this is part of the same poll as yesterday, which included info from both groups
I’m a newby to posting on wings but a lurker since 2014. But I feel compelled to post regarding these poll results. What on earth is it going to take for people to shift? I’m totally perplexed as to why there is not a surge in support for Indy.
I’ve been living in Oz for the last 8 years so don’t have the same conversations on the ground other than with family etc. But if Brexit can’t shift opinion then what will?
I always though that talk of Stockholm Syndrome was a cliche but am beginning to think there’s some truth in this with us Scots.
In 2014 all Scots I know in Oz thought it was a no brainer and that was also largely true for the Scots in Oz Facebook page – other than a few Yoonlunatics!
From an outsider looking in – I think the message has to get out there that the world is not sitting ready to do deals with UK. There is absolutely nothing in the Oz media to suggest they stand ready to do bilateral trade deals with UK and I suspect the same is true for NZ, Canada etc.
I also think there is a lot of untruths floating around about being in the EU and what that means. The Yes campaign has to start educating the masses – stuff like ‘leaving the UK to being ruled by the EU’ needs to be quashed.
I visit loads of pro-indy sites but I worry it’s a big echo chamber otherwise how are these polls not shifting in favour of Indy? I hope things are happening behind the scenes to mobilise the Yes campaign to counteract all the bullshit. I know we’re up against the MSM but jeez we have to get creative!
Anyhoo it’s late for me and sorry if it was a ramble but am starting to get the heebee-jeebes that we’re not seeing an upswing in support. ps – love all your posts
Stravaiger
it isnt a question of being in the eu, it is about being in the single market, it is this which will be the focus of indyref2
norway does have access to the single market but isnt in the eu, isnt an eu member
The Tories I know are old, gentlefolk, who are ‘c’ conservatives who have always voted Tory.
They are possibly not entirely happy with the current London centric wannabe UKippers.
I would go along with what others have said up above, your typical Scots born elderly Tory voter is a remnant of the conservative Scottish Unionist of the past. They may be on the right, but they aren’t the authoritarian sub fascists we are seeing down south.
What amazes me is that independence supporters continue to ignore the fact that 12% of people who live in Scotland and therefore have a vote in the Scottish independence referendum are English people who are mostly here temporarily to work and will return to live in England.These English people vote against Scottish independence because they benefit from the control that England has over Scotland, as we have seen time and time again Scotlands vote counts for nothing in a general election.
Scotland needs to exclude English people from voting in the Scottish referendum on the basis that they are part of the country that we are wanting to take back control of our country from.
People will then say what about letting the Scots who no longer live in Scotland have a vote in the Scottish independence referendum and I say no, they have decided to leave Scotland and live elsewhere so in my view they have given up their right to vote here.
By being part of this island it is natural that people move from one country to another for work but that does not give them a right to determine another country,s future by that I mean a Scot should not have a right to determine Wales being an independent country just because he is living in Wales it should be for Welsh people alone to determine if they should be an independent country same applies to Scotland and Northern Ireland.
I started the day off in a coffee shop looking at the papers waiting for a friend to arrive. Day off and was in fine fettle. I dared to look at The Scotsman letters page to fill some time in – I haven’t read it in years. I should’ve known better.
Jesus. Does BS Jill no give it a rest? If she isn’t a guest bloody columnist in that rag then she is in the letters page. How? and why?! Other other contributors with alternative perspectives are available, surely?
Pissed me right off.
People in other countries, such as Switzerland, vote in referendums without any fatigue setting in. Of course, they don’t have our MSM telling them how much they hate referendums.
You do get question blur. From a ’76 survey of Scottish businesses I processed, the likes of “How many employees do you have (000)”? 100. And what is your total wages bill? £300,000. Want to run that past me again?
Curious if we did not have our own rugby and football teams would that make a difference to the Scottish mindset? Does really seem to effect the proud Scots in a BIG way.
@ Cal at 12.39
Perhaps it’s not so much “why would Scotland be like Greece?” as “how could the EU treat one of its members so badly?”
@cat
Thanks. I missed that bit of detail yesterday.
So we campaign with…
“Vote YES to Scottish Independence” once this is done we will have to review our membership of the EU when the conditions for membership are negotiated.
Once those conditions are known we will have a referendum for the people of an Independent Scotland to decide. The democratic will of the Scottish people will be foremost.
Seems simple enough to me, catch both sides.
The 3% difference is unlikely to be a statistically significant one.
All of which, notwithstanding Brexit not having actually kicked in yet, begs the question – are we doing this the wrong way?
Many people still seem to have a strong emotional attachment to the UK, and maybe the whole dot the Is and cross the Ts economic model campaign of indyref 1 and the White Paper, and which is being repeated now by CommonWeal amongst others, is not the way to win them round.
Maybe we need some strong emotional counterweight instead. Something simpler and more visceral.
Nuada
I’ve been doing my best to communicate Scotland’s reality and the nature of British nationalism. Education is the key but when the state broadcaster’s chatter requires them to promote Britain and Yoonion, there’s an unhealthy and anti-democratic imbalance created in public consciousness.
I think minds will start to focus as Scots get closer to being treated as Brexit slaves. Intuition is hard to predict but powerful.
@schrodingers cat
I’d agree that a Scottish EU ref is required in the future. We need to discuss Europe and our relationship in detail as a nation for ourselves. I’d think that it should happen within a parliamentary term of independence gained.
I’d also say to those YES/leavers that should this guarantee be in place it is a subject they could campaign freely upon in the independence referendum as a pro argument for independence in its own right.
A parliamentary term gives the entire Scottish population the chance to see how an independent Scottish government deals with the EU on a one on one basis. It allows current remain and leave voter alike the time to assess that relationship and their own POV.
A referendum after over a parliamentary term in this position also gives both sides of the argument ample time to ‘hopefully’ form a more civilized debate than the uninformed, ill tempered and ultimately tragic debacle we saw last year. Show the world how it should be done, as it were and that EU resident nationals need never fear being used as bargaining chips regardless in an indy Scotland.
At the very least, if I were the current SG, I’d assure the YES/Leave vote, that they were free to campaign for future in/out referendums in an indy Scotland, that it would not be a closed issue.
But I’m not the SG and at ALL times I place returning choice and self government to Holyrood before ANY other constitutional consideration.
We have two unions to consider. People need to ask themselves which of those unions stifles or outright threatens and denies our democractic rights, wilfully damages our economy through geographical preference, and denies us access to the levers of change?
Which one daily causes undue harm to people, their life chances, their aspirations?
I’d say that’s the one you tackle first.
Heedtracker…
Scottish rugby fans sing FoS as an anthem, but definitely not a *National* anthem. 70% of them voted against rising to be a Nation again.
Um, yes, that’s how they’ve done it at the rugby for years now. Wish football would follow suit.
With my comment I think you can see how often I’ve watched rugby lately. 😀
I do agree entirely with you though Stu … football really does need to get its act together and follow suit with this style of National Anthem. It does wonders for the heart as for the rest … well that’s all in the lap of the god’s (or the players on the field whichever is the stronger 🙂 )
Fiona says:
15 February, 2017 at 1:12 pm
@Arbroath1320: 12:56
Yes. But how many will be deported before the vote? We need to get on with it
Sadly I think you are right Fiona. The life for all European nationals (I’m not forgetting other nationals but for the sake of the indy ref it will be European nationals we need most in my view) has been put on hold since that vote last year. Mayhem is not making it any easier for them despite calls from M.P.’s for her to do so. Not only M.P.’s either, U.K. nationals currently living abroad are also calling for Mayhem to just stand up and day E.U. nationals can stay in the U.K. They believe by her say this it will help their cause to stay in the E.U. after Brexit. As usual Mayhem doesn’t give a shite about anyone, E.U. national living in U.K. or U.K. national living in E.U.
Time to get out this god forsaken greed driven xenophobic broken union once and for all.
If wee Kez, Roothie and their mates are unhappy about this then they can all piss off darn surf … NOW!
The headline numbers are entirely consistent with other polls so no real surprise.
The area for hope on independence is where people want to be in the EU and the UK. Clearly both are not an option. May has scrapped Hard Brexit in favour Brutal Brexit. With senior Tories saying now is an opportunity to ditch health and safety rules and workers rights what sort of UK will there be top remain in?
That is where we must convince people that we have to cut free. If Labour back the Union over everything and consign us to years of Tory rule and a race to the bottom then Ian Smart’s words will be telling indeed.
Where was the poll carried out – Carstairs?
The first thing I would ask is who commissioned these polls? Having previously worked for Ipsos Mori, I can tell you that the interviewers are given the streets/postcodes of areas telling them where to go to ask the questions for any given topic. Now, if you have results from previous polls, and know which areas gave what results, then it isn’t hard to replicate the results in future polls, showing a bias towards what the client wants to see, or to suit a larger agenda. I have no doubt that the Scottish Government have carried out their own polls, but we have yet to see what kind of results these have gotten.
“The first thing I would ask is who commissioned these polls?”
Um, I did.
Papers like the Mail and the Express are in full EU shitmode, playing to a Brexit readership in England and Wales: EU a financial disaster and about to collapse. It’s difficult to counter that, right now. In a year’s time The UK’s future prosperity will be a bit more obvious and so will the EU’s. And maybe at that point project EUfear can be countered.
[…] Wings Over Scotland All the damn vampires There were no surprises in our latest Panelbase poll with regard to the independence […]
Tory voters plumping for Indy when faced with Lifetime of Tory Govt can be explained by the ex-Lab voters going to the Tory-vote – the hatred of SNP makes them vote Tory but with the prospect of a lifetime of Tories, they may think again!
My my, twitter is really bad for the imagination.
What or who is a SJW?
Ali@12.52
I wonder now just what a ‘Scottish tory centre right party’ would do that might be different to their dyed in the wool look after themselves, sanction the poor, stamp on the workers past and present ways?
Hmm, might they, not impose tuition fees on students and force nurses in training to take out a loan for the privelege? Or, might they not dismantle the SNHS, or reintroduce prescription charges, or sanction those in desperate need, leaving them destitute? Might they not line their own pockets, while taxing the low paid, or might they build more infrastructure to keep Scotland in the 20th century, or bridges because the other old one is falling down? Might they build affordable homes? Might they protect workers rights, human rights and disability rights?
No, simple, no they will not. Neither will a tory party at the helm in WM.
If Scotland is dragged out of the EU, but still shackled to WM, there will be no country called Scotland within a few years. I am sad to say, but it is pretty much guaranteed. Those who can’t escape will suffer untold poverty. The Greens can forget any notion of renewables, or cycle paths.
Still find it despairing that there are so many who cling to british nationalism, but as has been said, we are still starting on a much more positive footing, compared to last time.
Terence Callaghan – in making sweeping statements like that please bear in mind that some English people, like myself, have made our home here and have absolutely no intention of returning to England. In some ways I can understand your logic since I sadly have to admit you’re right that the majority of English people did and will vote against independence. But to go down the road of excluding people according to where they were born would be a very dangerous move indeed in my opinion, and would run counter to everything that this movement is about.
Capella:
I quite agree.
The media stresses every sinew to tell folk they hate referenda.
In fact, what people probably *do* hate about electoral campaigns of all types is that the media deliberately dumbs them down and focuses on a narrow range of things ad infinitum to the point where even engaged people get sick of hearing it and switch off. No depth, lest people grow to understand things more fully.
But I’d be in favour of things being more Swiss in that regard (by having more referenda on various things) and I don’t understand people whose attitude seems to be ‘oooooh, don’t ask me for my opinion on important issues tat affect me’.
louis.b.argyll says:
Social justice warriors
It was the tweet that the SJW containing tweet referred to.
Sounds like bollocks 🙂
The independent Tories are those that cannot thole the fascist Tories down South. It is the prospect of an eternity of being ridden roughshod by the braying hoard ( think “Sir” Nicholas Soames times 400 ) that prompts them to the Stalinesque position of our sort of Toryism in one country.
I would fight indyref2 on the damage that Brexit has and will cause and its corollary that Westminster is incompetent to rule the UK, let alone Scotland. Make Independence the safer option and we are home and dry.
need to concentrate on what like Britain was like in the 1920’s as this is how we will end up.
Bairns ill .. cant afford the doctor .. no social security .. dad killed at work means family evicted. .. No old age pensions, you worked till you dropped.
The people of Scotland don’t see what is coming in Tory Britain.
In my submission to SG over Indy Ref 2 I advocated a multi option Referendum. I don’t expect that option to see the light of day just as it didn’t in Indy Ref 1 and it effectively allowed I would argue the Yoons to rig the whole process.
As to the spurious opinion poll itself I don’t trust any of them least of all when there are elections in May. I pretty much made the same submission to Indy Ref 2 as I did to Indy Ref 1.
How does it go this contradiction in results where you have one opinion poll barely putting the Yes vote above the Ref result yet we have other polls showing the SNP apparently landsliding the forthcoming Cooncil Elections = AYE RIGHT!
I see the repeat of the Press and Media that preceded the Holyrood Elections of last year with an added stop the SNP edge to it.
@S Tilbury
Quite right, but I’d go a bit further than that – we don’t know what way the English who’ve moved here, had kids here and lived here for some years, will vote. Same as the rest. Could be they end up being more in favour of Indy than average. Things have changed since 2014.
Interesting, Rev you need to continue these polls maybe every quarter and you need to ask us to crowd fund them.
Snode1965 says:
15 February, 2017 at 1:52 pm
Heedtracker…
Scottish rugby fans sing FoS as an anthem, but definitely not a *National* anthem. 70% of them voted against rising to be a Nation again.
Down those leafy driveways of Scotland eh? They’re extremely leafy and lovely too, from which we watched the giant tower schemes go up in the distance, stack a pleb, we were told. How we laughed.
It is better to give a lower figure, it encourages the people to go out and vote, just look what happened last time when the pols displayed the other result, just at the end.
@ Terence callachan
“Scotland needs to exclude English people from voting in the Scottish referendum on the basis that they are part of the country that we are wanting to take back control of our country from.”
Quite apart from the fact that Scotland being a welcoming and inclusive society is one of our key virtues . .
The most strongly pro-Yes people I know are people who have moved up from England and made their home here. By trying to exclude them, then you will exclude many Yes voters. In addition, if you exclude them then you’ll also have to exclude EU citizens on the same basis. My wife being German, that’s not something I would support or countenance under any circumstances.
Does this mean that when we are told not all snp members would vote yes,we can now reply with “not all Tories vote No”? Time to start Tories for Yes.
🙂
starlaw says:
15 February, 2017 at 2:09 pm
“need to concentrate on what like Britain was like in the 1920’s as this is how we will end up.
Bairns ill .. cant afford the doctor .. no social security .. dad killed at work means family evicted. .. No old age pensions, you worked till you dropped.
The people of Scotland don’t see what is coming in Tory Britain.”
My father lost two brothers to Diphtheria in the 1930s. My mother one brother to TB. The Brit Nat Press and Media though will tell us it was some lost Golden Age. And the severely demented Yoons will swallow the lie hook line and sinker and then spread it like an epidemic of the diseases that once killed their brothers and sisters.
When Ind2 arrives, we can take some solace in the fact that we are staring from a much higher percentage of likely votes, than before.
Yes, there will always the hard core element but if we do anywhere near as well as Indy1 we will win.
Nothing taken for granted,but as polls have shown to be only an indication of possible event results.They have not been exactly glorified recently by getting things right.
The point also has to be made that almost all main polling companies are from South of the border, and I feel sure there is a leaning to the Westminster cause.
We will need to work hard to get as high as we can, but winning is within our grasp.
Pointer -the media and hardcore Unionists are getting much more vocal,erratic,and abusive, that is what fear does.
Good point@yesindyref2. Hope you’re right!
Something that would be really really useful in a future poll would be to ask the respondents if they consider themselves British or Scottish as a preference. That may help separate the British nationalist hardline sentiment from the rest?
Polls , Polls . I have always thought Polls & Polling organisations should firstly banned for the whole month Prior to any election as far as i can see they endeavour to influence voters rather than reflect their views .
Anyone name one poll that got anything right in 2016 , just one .
In short they are a load of pish .
Calm before the storm!There is a hurricane about to blow.
The reasons the majority of Scots disagree with independence is the false news and lies! Education and responding in an alternative way at all times is essential. FM is correct at this time to not show her hand. We are all excited about the next referendum and we need to get on with it when it happens.
A50 when it happens will be the turning point. Then call the day of reckoning and give us the hope again. We then then have to work our minds to transform good over evil (EVEL), the can only lie for so long.
There is no union only colonisation! If we can’t run them out we’ll breed them out.Nae chance’.
Alba gu brath’
I’ve said this before and have been shot down in flames for it, but I think the answer is to have two referendums, one for Scottish independence followed by one on the EU. This would keep the two issues of the UK union and the EU union seperate.
This, in my view, is the recipe that would allow all who wish it to vote positively for Scottish Independence, regardless of their views on Europe.
I think we would win easily!
Personally I would vote Yes to Scottish indepenedence followed by voting to remain in the EU; or at least the common market (think Norway, Iceland etc) if that is given as an option.
I have every sympathy with the viewpoint of Terence. Basically allowing citizens of our rulers and overlords a vote on Scottish independence is utter madness. Unfortunately I realise we cannot exclude certain nationalities. It just cannot be done. As you mention Wales and NI. Ban them too? Where does it end? A residency rule could work better. Maybe these people will have more allegiance to our country. I was on a high in recent weeks but this has been like a boot in the gonads. 🙁
@ msean
link to twitter.com
They seem to mean it.
@Terence callachan
I travel all around rural Scotland, and there are many English people moved up here. I’d say none of them would be moving “back to England”, none. Spain maybe for some. Which of course won’t be as easy when the rUK is out of the EU, but would be with iScotland IN the EU.
S.Tilbury@2.04
I too am english, I would likely leave a WM very right wing tory run Scotland with no chance of change for the better. If I thought it would secure independence, I would give up my vote. Might sound daft, but are we not in a dangerous situation in a way, in a very right wing xenophobic UK, if dragged out of the EU which actually protects people. Scotland is a beautiful, forward looking country, going backwards the behest and beholding for crumbs from the britnat establishment is not a good scenario.
We can secure independence for Scotland, but the overseeing of the voting and counting has to be scrupulous.
Terence,1.41, and S Tilbury 2.04 – this issue goes round and round in my head too.
My parents were English-born and I came to Britain aged 3, then schooled/worked in England for 50 years, before early retiring to Wester Ross where my English-born husband has roots.
We both love England and the English [with exceptions!] BUT are both desperate for Scotland to recover its nationhood, and work hard to that end.
BUT we take opposite views on the question you raise – I would cheerfully give up my right to vote and leave it to Scotland-born and resident [none of that postal vote/2nd home rubbish]voters to decide. My husband disagrees – thinks that would be a “dangerous” line to take.
I know many English/other place of birth people here who voted Yes, by the way. Indeed our activists group is attended by a majority of such!
Might an acceptable condition be to have been resident in Scotland for 10 years?
Increased Tory support for Indy, if Tory rule forever in U.K.?
1. Some Tory voters may be Labour voters who switched recently and only voted Tory because they hate the SNP. But faced with Tory rule forever, have recanted on Indy.
2. Some traditional Scottish Tory voters may be conservative with a small ‘c’, and happiest with the Conservatives overall, but feel the current Tories running UK are useless. Especially Johnstone. And Hammond, though thankfully he doesn’t affect us. And Brexit. I’ve heard that from some traditional Scottish Tory voters lately.
3. Some Tory voters may be English, of the kind who flip flop between Tory and Labour, unlike Scottish Tory and Labour voters who never would. But lately these soft Tories have been reconsidering Indy in the light of Brexit.
It seems blindingly obvious that single market access should be the focus for Indyref2.
Park the EU issue until after Independence and have a referendum on whether to join the EU in due course
From within EFTA. Just as Austria, Finland and Sweden did.
When the ‘offer’ doesn’t please the people: change the offer.
Vote Yes to join Norway and Iceland!
and of course there is always the scenario that Nicola calls a referendum on these sort of figures after article 50 and May says no thanks.
Only option is mass resignation of MPs and by-elections fought on UDI
Scottish conservatives.
Obviously many English born folks have brought the Conservatism with them. But looking at Scots born conservatives.
My father’s family were all Conservative voters. They didn’t have two pennies among them to rub together. They would have been attracted by the small ‘c’ conservatism. It was actually Scottish Unionists they voted for. It was the party of the Church of Scotland, and they were all staunch church goers 60-70 years ago. It was also seen by many as opposition to the centralisation of everything under Labour.
I would suggest that only after the merger with the English Conservative party and the appearance of Thatcher, was the party so far to the right. In the 1950-70s there was no suggestion of selling off nationalised industries. The Tories of that era injected government money into deprived areas to launch new enterprises .. Linwood etc etc.
Elderly Tory voters in Scotland may (and I believe many are) conservatives from this era. As one example, I very much doubt they want the NHS privatised.
To get an idea of just how far the right the Conservatives have become look at the EU parliament. They are in the European Conservatives and Reformists
link to en.m.wikipedia.org
‘Normal’ right wing parties are in the European People’s Party Group
link to en.m.wikipedia.org
When the news reports that another EU country has a right wing government, they rarely mean the ‘loony right’ of the recent UK Conservatives!
And, they have just taken a further lurch to the right to the point where they seem indistinguishable from UKIP.
To return to Scottish conservatives who usually vote Tory. I do reckon many of them do not see themselves as far to the right as May’s lot! They are conservatives who by nature as slow to change, but many are old school ‘wet’ Tories, not wannabe Ukipers.
S Tilbury @ 2:04
Seconded – not just because my English (and proud of it) wife voted Yes…
At least that’s what she told me 🙂
O/T I think the award for 1st confirmed ‘Yoon’ should go to Archibald Douglas, 6th Earl of Angus, (1489-1557). Tried, and ultimately failed, on behalf of Henry VIII to persuade the Parliament of Scotland to have Mary Stuart married off to Edward Tudor.
Cuilean @ 1’26: The BBC is complicit in constantly pushing the narrative that ‘everything’ is going to be fine come Brexit.
Sorry Cuilean, that’s dangerous nonsense. BBC coverage often features clearly the potential dangers and imminent disasters of Brexit – to the fury of the Brexiteers. I know the Beeb aren’t popular in this movement, but we have GOT to guard against wallowing in our own preferred perceptions, or it’ll catch us out badly and put off the very people we need to convince.
Gotta say I agree with Colin Dunn and others.
We are meant to be inclusive and so nobody who’s of age, is resident here, and wants to vote should be prevented from doing so.
In fact, we want to show the English-Scots who haven’t been persuaded that they have nothing to fear from independence. The best way to do that is to be inclusive now and to try to persuade them even if it is hard.
As Colin notes, many English-Scots have helped big time and I am aware of some who have done way more for the cause than I ever have (I hope to do a lot more next time around, as circumstances allow it). Who the hell would I be to say these people, who have given a lot already, should be excluded from taking part?
That should have said *SHOULD NOT BE PREVENTED FROM DOING SO*.
D’oh.
Aye, some of the percentages in the polls are from an already marginalised confused minority, who answer the way they think their traditional party values would lean.
Their traditional parties have sold out..all three unionist parties are phantoms of former eminence.
Brexit/Trump/Inequality/Debt/War will soon seep into our everyday lives.
Right-wing policies seem to be less popular than right-wing parties.
Stupid people only vote, they don’t want the kind of progressive democracy that the future demands we need.
The stupid will continue to implode, outnumbered by an educated outward looking community.
Before any indy campaigning…how about a big ‘womens/race/pay’ Equalities March in Glasgow?
Maybe Labour and the big Unions, funded by their members dues, are already planning something this year….
Actually, I had what I meant to say right first time.
I need some caffeine.
Apologies for multiple posts, everyone.
I think that what is holding the Indy vote back in Scotland is that the SNPdo such a good job of running Scotland without independence, that there are a large number of complacent parasites just happy to accede to a Tory run Britain as long as the SNP are protecting them from it.
Another lot are complacent because they are secure and comfortable and would probably be whatever the Tories threw at them. It just wouldn’t affect them that much.
Head. In. Sand. I’m all right Jack.
@Artyhetty and @Sarah
I have considered this long and hard, and equally if I thought it would secure Scottish independence I too would be prepared to give up my vote. But I think at the moment all this proposition does is to make English people the scapegoats, whereas the much bigger problem as I see it seems to be the unionist Scots.
I would agree with a residency condition.
S Tilbury:
Yes, if a large majority of Scots-born people voted Yes, it would not matter what English-Scots, EU-Scots, or whoever else did.
There’s a lot of energy placed into finding groups who are to ‘blame’ for the loss last time, which would be better placed into finding out what would get them to vote Yes next time.
And anyone who lives here will be affected, whether they vote Yes or No, should they must all be given their say if they want one.
I think the issue with the change in Indy voting intentions if the reality is lifelong tory probably boils down to nothing more than the irrationality of people.
Not hugely surprised by the inside UK outside EU favoured by people though, you can see a steady rise in that option over the preceding polls whilst Indy inside EU has stayed pretty stagnant at 32%
If this is truly representative I fear that the worse things get, the more steadfastly yoonionist certain people will become. Pig headedness? Stupidity? Racism? Imperial nostalgia? Who knows…but it’s happening and the worry is it WILL affect indy2 results. We’re seeing a growth in support of INdy from other parts of the UK whilst huge swathes of Scottish population stick fingers in ears and repeats “better together, broad shoulders” as if that will make it true.
Anyone who thought indyref 2 was a certain yes should surely have had a rude awakening with these trends.
Polls are part of the yoonist propaganda apparatus, recent elections have proved that they can be massively way out!
Remember the 16 & 17 year old voters with very uncertain futures directly due to yoonist misrule from London, plus the european folk who work and live in Scotland also with uncertain futures.
An Independent Scotland will and can change our society for the better.
Can people STFU about excluding anyone from voting in a future independence referendum based on where they were born. If my parents had waited a year I’d have been born in England rather than Scotland.
If you want to complain then complain about the campaigns to get people in England to register for a postal vote in the last referendum. You might also want to check the number of cases where postal votes might have been enough to swing some other elections. Ban postal votes.
Whilst opposed to any minimum level of Yes result one with “English” voters in it might mean a far higher proportion of “Scottish” voters were pro-independence. If we can’t achieve that then a lack of belief or ability might be to blame.
For what it’s worth, I’m now firmly convinced that triggering indy ref 2 before we know the brexit deal is utterly stupid. Our main hope is people see how bad it is going to be. Those that can already see that are voting yes, those that might vote yes aren’t going to unless they know the UK is sunk. This poll should firmly kick the indy ref into the 2019/2020 territory that Stu has been advising all along.
I may have missed something and have not yet skimmed through the comments but Q19 only asks about Labour (and possibly implies permanent Tory rule) but respondents could be imagining some other party in Government that might not be as bad as UKIP or Tory. Hope or desperation for some sanity might have influenced judgements in those suffering from a need to resolve cognitive dissonance.
Essentially I think the question, if not preceded by a statement that clarified what simply seems to be implied, was poorly worded.
Perhaps we need to face the uncomfortable truth that we can’t know the future and polls only help a little and sometimes.
We do know that we can mobilise a strong movement and that our opponents have serious problems now and worse to come as Brexit talks go forward.
Maybe that’s the best we’re going to get. So what do we do ?
No ‘one size fits all’ campaign. What persuades in Anniesland is not the same as what may persuade in Helensburgh. Every local group will need to have a grown up debate on best local tactics. This might even include just ‘light touch’ for low yield spots and moving ourselves as reinforcements to more productive places.
Have the detailed arguments available for those that want them but lead with the direct, simple and visceral. Do what RIC did last time and concentrate heavily on low turnout area voters. Ensure that EU citizens get the vote. Time the vote late in Brexit talks but not after.
Then – go out and fight for it like we’ve never fought in our lives before. I’m 65, comfortably off and not an ‘instinctive’ nationalist but I feel the passion. Sometimes that passion can be communicated.
Nothing is certain except that we can’t duck this fight and we have to not miss a single trick.
Graun latest, or everytime you look really. Vote Leave our chums in the south simpered and we we will give you all your Scottish fish back and then you will be loyal Brits again, wont you, suckas.
Daniel Boffey in Brussels
Wednesday 15 February 2017 12.12 GMT
Fishing
UK fishermen may not win ‘waters back’ after Brexit, EU memo reveals
Document obtained by the Guardian states existing quotas will remain despite promises made by leave campaigners
Martin:
It might be that indyref 2 is in early 2019, as Stu suggested all along, but actually ‘triggering’ it will have to be a lot earlier.
Education about what powers Holyrood, Westminster, and the EU all hold is needed, as well as what powers can realistically be expected to come back to Scotland.
Moreover, if indyref 2 is not triggered for too long, then we are going to lose a lot of our EU citiizens who will lose hope.
We already have some idea what shape the negotiations are going to take on the big issues. In the campaign, it will be about educating people as to what this will mean. So I am not too sure we do need to hang round forever at all.
It’s a lot of the minutiae we do not know about.
Bloody love the English. So many creative influencers..
However, just as many are employed and empowered (that’s what the establishment does) to hide Englands (some say Britain’s) now-apparent rotten core.
Indifferent about Scottish unionists?
Some are friends.
Appalled that the North of England swung to the right? But not surprised.
Tony Blair, you’re an affront to the working class and a political coward.
My tuppence worth?
No, you exclude no resident from the vote. Point of origin doesn’t matter. What kind of country you want to live in does.
If any resident wishes to continue enjoying their current benefits and freedoms of residency in Scotland. Indeed, if they want to see such benefits enshrined or expanded, then there is only one reasonable vote.
Retaining the political union and losing those benefits is the other option of course. If we retain this political union then lose them and a great deal more precious things we take for granted besides, is an absolute certainty.
When you are fighting for survival and the protection of the rights of, not just yourself, but future generations, then there are no differences. There’s no colour, no religion, no politics, no gender only people working together to protect what they have and hopefully build something even better for the future.
I don’t care where you come from, what you look like, how you sound, or whether you like sport or the opera. If you live here, contribute to the community and believe in progressive democratic self government, then you are a Scot.
Oh, and if you think I’m exaggerating about losing benefits or freedoms? If you think that even if we did lose those things, they won’t come knocking on your door eventually?
This: link to thecanary.co
@Alt clut – Hear, hear.
Agree with Derick Fae Yell, the clear solution is to make EEA and customs union the priority (via EFTA).
I don’t like the idea of promising another referendum on EU membership as a condition of indy. Yes/Leavers won’t buy it, might make the EU less helpful and no/leavers are getting their way as things are at present anyway.
These polls show how unpredictable and irrational people can be though, you’d think no/remainers would favour iScot in EFTA over UK out on it’s arse and the same for YES/leavers but who the hell knows.
What’s the real word on the street, how many NO voters do you hear that have actually said they are now YES.
Myself a Scot who lives abroad, people I know have not changed their tune, still NO, bleating it’s democracy.
I just shake my head.
Its curious that in 2014, what may have been termed the euro-sceptic part of the Yes vote wasn’t making a big deal about it and voted Yes anyway (well so it seems). It now appears that the airing of the Remain/Leave debate has hardened that percentage against Yes, which is rather suggestive that isolationist “Little Scotlanders” have more in common with “Little Englanders”/”Little Britons” than they do with their fellow Yes voters. Another way to put it might be that for that category of Yes people, their views on immigration – if not outright xenophobia – is dominant over their wish for independence. Its a messy venn diagram this one, I can’t say I have an easy answer in getting us over the 50% line with comfort. A concerted effort might still only result in a very narrow Yes win 51/49 for instance. Squeaky bum time but with effectively as much legitimacy as the 52/48 figure thats taking the UK out of the EU. Its also why the next No campaign will use xenophobia as a tool, it plays to just enough Little Scotlander (former or soft) Yes voters to cause us a problem.
This analysis is very interesting. When we look at the recent analysis compiled for Commonspace, the Tory pattern falls into place. Around 80% of voters who were not born in Scotland voted no. These are predominately Tories, and are “unsettled”, as many of them think of themselves as English. The Tories who switch in the poll towards Yes, are presumably those born in Scotland. If we want to win we have to concentrate on that 80%, approximately 400,000 votes that went the wrong way last time.
Decision Time Scotland…
link to imgur.com
Soultron @3:14pm:
I wonder if Rev Stu will perhaps put a question in the next poll about that, e.g. ‘how would you vote in indyref 2 if there were to be a guaranteed referendum on EU membership within 5 years?’.
Some might ‘buy’ that; some might not. I don’t know what to think although those that are rabid anti-EU might well be thinking ‘I don’t want to in case it’s remain again’.
The West Glasgow enclave where I work is riddled with these ‘strange’ people.
Also at risk of being labelled anti immigrant I know quite a few dismissive anti Scottish BritNat immigrants.Strangely ,old Raj Indians in particular.
I also know more than a few EU immigrants who want UK/Scotland out of EU.
I put it down to them thinking they are superior to their countrymen back home and want to pull up the ladders.
The ‘superior’British brand is pervasive,and it is not only many Scottish people who are too thick to see through it’s thin veneer of decency.
I would add that Pakistani and Muslims in general are the least likely in my experiences to adopt the Britnat stance.
I understand that these are only my personal experiences so are hopefully not representative.
Scots are strange,or we would have been independent long ago,and we are not alone in being strange.
Overall,I think the British state are just the most relentless and successful propagandists ever to stalk the planet.
I would just love to see the look on Leave voters fisher folk faces today, up on the Buchan coast, who swallowed the Leave campers Leave bait, hook and sinker.
From,
Graun last June,
Fishing
Scotland’s fishing industry welcomes decision to leave the EU
EU departure offers a chance to banish past overfishing and incoherent regulation, says head of industry group, despite warnings exit could hurt fisheries
via Bertie the tory yoon from god knows where,
“Armstrong said Scottish fishermen were strongly against staying in the EU, even though the country as a whole voted strongly for remain.
“It must not be forgotten that the whole of the Scottish fishing community, who sustainably harvest seafood from some of the best fishing grounds in the world, does not agree with this stance [on remaining in the EU] in the slightest,” he said.”
to Graun today,
“A flotilla of fishing trawlers, organised by Nigel Farage, sailing up the river Thames during the referendum campaign. Photograph: Facundo Arrizabalaga/EPA
Daniel Boffey in Brussels
Wednesday 15 February 2017 12.12 GMT Last modified on Wednesday
The hopes of British fishermen that the UK can win its “waters back” after Brexit are expected to be dashed by the European parliament, despite the campaign promises of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, a leaked EU document reveals.”
Arise Lord Farage, frae the Broch.
Would all those former soviet states Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus and Georgia etc. have allowed Russian citizens to vote on their independence? I don’t agree with people telling posters to shut the fuck up. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. Gets on my fucking tits the holier than thou crowd on here.
These polls highlight the possibility that a minority of voters who are pro independence are more strongly anti immigrant.
Um, yes, that’s how they’ve done it at the rugby for years now. Wish football would follow suit.
This time felt different though.
Google BetterTogether Bertie and there’s thousands of this,
Bertie Armstrong: Brexit a great opportunity for Scottish fishing.
Get lied to hard at: http://www.scotsman. com bertie-armstrong-brexit-a-great-opportunity-for-scottish-fishing-
link to archive.is
Berite’s not a fan of Alex Salmond either.
The rise of support for in UK, out the EU, can be explained by the tendency of people to support the status quo. It is easier to accept an existing paradigm than change it – even if, a year earlier, your views were different. Brexit was a surprise. But now we have it, people are rapidly adjusting to the new reality.
I always wondered if independence would be the same, or would British nationalists dig in their heels and cause trouble? A lot depends on England/Westmimster’s attitude. If Scotland’s british nationalists are cold shouldered by Westminster similarly to how the EU has abandoned any claim of ties to the UK, people will adapt pretty quickly to Scottish independence. On the other hand if Westminster actively works towards destabilising Scotland then we will struggle.
Maybe some Tory voters are afraid (if the Tories are left to their own devices) of just how far their party would go.
I mean it’s alleged that Tory policies on welfare for example has, killed thousands of people. Imagine what they could do if they remained in power for say 100 years..gulp.
From the Guardian at lunchtime
“The hopes of British fishermen that the UK can win its “waters back” after Brexit are expected to be dashed by the European parliament, despite the campaign promises of Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage, a leaked EU document reveals.
MEPs have drafted seven provisions to be included in Britain’s “exit agreement”, including the stipulation that there will be “no increase to the UK’s share of fishing opportunities for jointly fished stocks [maintaining the existing quota distribution in UK and EU waters]”.
The document, obtained by the Guardian, adds that in order for the UK and EU to keep to commitments on sustainable fishing – contained within the United Nations stocks agreement – “it is difficult to see any alternative to the continued application of the common fisheries policy”.
Re my last post, I see Paul Martin has already made the same point as myself more fully and eloquently.
“On the other hand if Westminster actively works towards destabilising Scotland then we will struggle.”
Can they afford to even try? Brexit’s going to turn the heat up under Westminmster, just like it does with every other recession.
It is important not to allow emotion – like depression – to completely over-rule the mind. When the wind gets up, every sailor reduces the sails to suit the change in conditions. Squalls and storms blow over in time. This poll result looks like a nasty squall, nothing more.
It is not the end of the world.
That will come, in part, when the global Money Markets give their verdict on the triggering of Article 50 and the formal start of Brexit. Sterling will likely collapse to parity with the US Dollar and all hell will then break loose.
A lot of water has to pass under the bridge before IndyRef2.
@heedtracker
Sorry didn’t see your earlier post. I suppose you could say it’s noteworthy that we posted it twice:)
@Wee Jock Poo-Pong McPlop
Cuilean and I are listening to the same BBC.
Maybe you don’t notice because it is what they leave out that strikes me.
Hi stu what dates were these people commissioned by panebase? I can’t find it it’s just to determine Wether people were consulted before or after last week’s vote for triggering A50
A very disappointing aspect of this poll for me is that all Yes supporters, including myself and I’m sure the SNP and it’s leadership believed that Scotland being “taken out of the EU against it’s will” would have brought a flood of new Yes voters over to our side as Scotland voted strongly to Remain..
It did bring a flood of Remainers, well 13% of No voters but at the same time it appears as if it lost us 14% of those that voted Yes first time around?
Result of Brexit=Neutral on Independence
I’m gobsmacked at this as I didn’t believe that so many of those that voted Yes would prioritise getting out of the EU above getting out of the UK and becoming Independent.
Why might that be then?
Immigration no doubt features, there are bigoted Yes voters just as there are bigoted No voters who listen to the trash from the Express and the Mail. How to resolve these differences may be the big question.
I do take heart that just 43% support the UK no matter in or out of EU. Combined 48% want an Independent Scotland either in or out. Excluding don’t knows this results in those are open to the idea of Independent Scotland as 53% and opposed 47%.
More on Edinburgh schools scandal and BBC editorial standards
link to indyref2.scot
Johnny
I appreciate the need to be inclusive but I’m with sarah. I think some form of residency criteria has to be employed.
Maybe I’m over optimistic but my barometer is the panic within unionist ranks.
Let’s do this..
There were some quite vocal posters on here before the EU referendum who advocated Brexit and it struck me they seemed more in favour of Brexit than Scottish Independence.I remember asking were they only in favour of Indy as a means to leaving the EU.
It seems there are a significant number for whom Brexit is the main priority and they will vote accordingly. What is more interesting are those Slabbers who will happily live under Tory rule forever. Maybe these were the Tories who moved to Slab under Tony Blair and were only lending their vote while Blairism was on offer.
Whatever it means the battle lines are by no means clear and I think the status quo is only attractive until people see their own situation is affected. There may be a few changing sides again before now.
galamcennalath, cheers..
On one thème here, the now.. Looking forward to the population at large being made crystal clear WHAT right-wing government is, come Brexit come Trump.
The theory that people just settle into the status quo is probably bang on..look at the indy polls immediately following the Brexit vote (before any positive spin could be put on events by the media).
With only a few weeks to go until article 50 is triggered I’m hoping that this is going to be a bit of a high watermark for No. We’ve had weeks of ‘Everything’ll be fine’ and maybe we’re seeing the results of that. Things will start to unravel over the next few months and even the BBC won’t be able to put a glossy sheen on everything coming out of Europe. As long as we’ve got the more compelling ‘We’re the real safe option – The real status quo’ argument at the time of ref 2, we should win.
I don’t think anyone is seriously suggesting some voters should not be allowed a vote.
I seem to remember there were some recent, at least minor changes in who is eligible to vote in another independence referedum. Can’t quite remember the details, but seemed a bit more realistic in terms lf residency.
We do have to remember that last time, other EU nationals were told they would be thrown out if the result was yes. Quite the opposite this time round.
For all those who would prevent English folks living in Scotland from voting, you need to be a bit broader minded.
Our National Hero, William Wallace was reputed to be an archer from Wales, from where the name Wallace is supposedly derived. When Wallace was executed, and his head stuck on a spike, to the left and right of him were two brothers Fraser, from Neidpath Castle, Peebles. Fraser is derived from the French/Norman word fraisse, for strawberry.
Scotland has a long history of home grown heros, creators and defenders of our nation, but we also have an equally longstanding debt of gratitude to many stalwarts who weren’t born here but chose to make Scotland their home, and to ally themselves with everything that Scotland stood for.
A man’s a man for awe that… And it’s what he says and does that matters, not where he comes from, be that from the lowlands or the Highlands, from Scotland, England, Wales or far beyond. If they’ll put their shoulder to the wheel, then they’re welcome in my book. And for those who can’t bring themselves to vote against their former home South of the Border, spare a thought for how our Scots living in England might feel if they asked to vote against the interests of Scotland.
If we want our English settlers to vote for independence, they are no different from our home grown Unionists. They will be won over by reasoned and persuasive arguments and coming round to seeing the issues as we do. Mark them as English and not to be trusted, and all you achieve is to tie their hands and remain excluded.
They are our allies, and just like Heineken beer, perhaps they can reach parts influence opinion where the rest of us can’t.
If only all of the people had the foresight to realise that there is a real credible possibility of both Tories and UKIP gaining seats in England post Brexit. This in turn could have real implications for Scotland.
Both right wing Tories and UKIP promote the idea that England is subsidising Scotland and this argument is resonating with a lot of English people.
So if we vote ‘No’ at next Indy ref the consequences for Scotland will be massive. We need to make sure people are aware of the potential dire consequences of voting No again. We will have nothing to bargain with and this will most definitely be exploited by those unscrupulous rogues in both Tory and UKIP .
Any politically economic decision that is detrimental to Scotland will be shut down by the argument they are currently using now i.e. ‘Scotland voted to stay part of UK’. This is the argument they use to justify that we just have to accept what they decide, irrespective of the repercussions.
We were never going to be what JKR wrote in her fantasy prophesy on her opinions website dated June 2014- :
“We will be in the heady position of the spouse who looked like walking out, but decided to give things one last go. All the major political parties are currently wooing us with offers of extra powers, keen to keep Scotland happy so that it does not hold an independence referendum every ten years and cause uncertainty and turmoil all over again. I doubt whether we will ever have been more popular, or in a better position to dictate terms, than if we vote to stay”.
Her fantasy prediction was not realised and the ‘wooing of extra powers’ was a pig in a poke and even she, if being honest, must know we were NEVER in or will EVER be in, a ‘better position’ to ‘dictate terms’ on anything while in Britnat UK post Indy 1, and god forbid if we vote no again, post Indy 2.
All is not lost, as people have stated above, Article 50 has not been triggered yet and the people who are YES but LEAVE need to ask themselves why they voted yes first time round, because if they forgo YES in INDY 2 they will be consigning us all to a far worst fate and will live to regret their decision, as will we all should NO win again.
As to Scottish Tories and Independence…..well perhaps Brexit was a step too far. Some of them may worry about their investments and savings , they may have holiday homes in Europe, their children may want to travel, work or study in Europe, so all in all they may see this as affecting them more than the rabid Brexiteers with apparently nothing to lose.
As to Scottish Labour voters …….words fail me.
The Indy2 Referendum has not started despite the opposition bleating about Independence at every available opportunity. The electorate in the main do not eat, breath and sleep politics as we do. The vast bulk have not tuned into the Brexit consequences that will happen sooner than later once Article 50 is triggered. Support for Independence hasn’t gone down but had a slight increase.
Once Article 50 has been triggered the UK Government will have to fight on two fronts. I doubt they will be able to placate the Scottish Government and a Referendum will be called. Once that happens people will start listening and engaging again.
It seems quite a few who voted YES in 2014 actually believed the BT propaganda that an Indy Scotland would be turfed out of the EU, and actually wanted it to happen. People certainly are strange. I never thought that would actually be a motivation to vote YES in 2014. And at what cost?
A Hard English BREXIT will soon clear all the smoke away.
WOS archive links for the remainder of July 2013 now over on O/T.
A lot of very good posts already.
Like Breeks, I also voted to remain in the EU, not the make-do booby prize of EU Lite, and I still don’t agree with the usual proponents of EEA/EFTA, since it adds two layers of uncertainty where there need only be one, and removes a major plank of the pro-indy argument, namely that continuing EU membership protects us against rUK trade bullying.
By all means have an all-Scottish referendum on continued EU membership once the dust has settled, when the decision will be ours to take and ours alone. That is the very core of what being independent means, after all.
If the supposed Yes-Leavers are really all Little Scotlanders, it’s not clear that EU-Lite will work any better with them than EU-Classic anyway.
We have to keep in mind that we are receiving a steady anti-EU hammering from the vast majority of the media, and a wishy-washy “stick together” from the rest, while no-one is making a case any longer for remaining. It’s just “wait and see”. The propaganda is evidently still working with some people, but it can’t be sustained for ever. It’s still the “phoney war” period, and it’s only now that the Brexit chickens have started coming home.
Yesterday it was announced that inflation is going to ramp up again because of the weakness of the pound, and it’s only now that the pre-rise spending spree is coming to an end. Business investment is on hold. The NE fishing Leavers have yet to absorb the news that their much-anticipated “gold rush” of the seas just ain’t gonna happen. Much more is yet to come, and it will hit the self-interested maybe more than anyone.
As to timing, we need to do this while the Brexit negotiations are ongoing. London will then have to fight on two fronts, just like in byegone days. Let the Unionists convince us to wait till they’re done with the continentals, then can turn their full undivided attention onto us, and we’ve wantonly abandoned the higher ground.
If a union Rep in a big company was any good they tried to promote him to the managers side to shut him up.
Who to target for IndyRef 2?
Is there more fruit to be gained by aiming for the soft NOs who voted REMAIN, or winning back the soft YESs who voted LEAVE?
Not sure, really not sure, TBH
One thing is for sure – doing a Labour and trying to please everyone will succeed in pleasing noone.
Hi msean at 2:19 pm.
You typed,
“Time to start Tories for Yes.”
link to twitter.com
@Luigi
“It seems quite a few who voted YES in 2014 actually believed the BT propaganda that an Indy Scotland would be turfed out of the EU, and actually wanted it to happen. People certainly are strange.”
You know, that thought never crossed my mind but could have a lot of truth in it. “We’ll get flung out of the EU so I’m voting YES”.
Oh dear, sad to believe that that there are even some who might think like that. Still can’t believe it’s possible but it is!
Luigi @ 16:48,
I’m not sure it was as obvious as all that. My take is that they were perfectly happy with a simple anti-UK stance before, but were then energised by the EUref “alternative truths”, and ruthlessly exploited thereafter by the BritNats, helped along by disgruntled political has-beens such as Neil and Sillars. The self-proclaimed independistas who still desperately want Scotland to be rogered by the UK one more time? Suckered by the old divide-and-rule ploy. Pluheeaase!
Sooner or later many of them will wake up with a jolt when they realise that a bilateral trade deal with TrumpUSA Corp ™ will be a billion times worse than the (defunct) TTIP EU-USA deal would have been, just f’rinstance.
Many of these people are still re-winnable for indy when the chips go down, I believe. I mean, what’s the alternative…?
All this talk about either having a second EU referendum after IndyRef2 (either to leave/stay in, or join/stay out) whilst well intentioned is I fear not something that the Scottish Government / SNP could do.
Firstly because the case for having IndyRef2 largely rests on “Scotland voted to stay in, but is being dragged out against it’s will” and it’s hard to square that with “But we’ll hold another Eu referendum immediately/soon after independence”. The media and the unionist parties would have a field day with that, claiming the SG/SNP where either being indecisive or trying to be all things to all people.
Secondly it risks rather pissing the EU off! Which under the circumstances is something we should probably avoid doing.
There is of course, absolutely nothing preventing the people of an independence Scotland voting in a government that wants to hold an EU referendum but it’s not something to hold out front and centre during IndyRef2. I can see the arguments about how it’s supposed to appeal to people who’d prefer an independent Scotland that’s outside the EU, but doesn’t it also risk repelling those who think an independent Scotland that’s outside the EU might be worse than a Scotland that’s inside the UK but outside the EU?
… and for the love of all that’s holy can we stop with the “Restrict $MINORITY’s rights in order to get the referendum result I want?” suggestions please? (Though some sensible restrictions on postal voting wouldn’t go amiss, but is that within the remit of Holyrood?)
Folk who want to leave the EU should remember Scotland has never ever had any representation of its own in Europe
all deals were done by and to suit England who effed it up so badly they complained immediately about it being no good which really says a lot more about their skills as negotiators than anything else
In the EU as an Independent country Scotlands own people do the talking on our behalf and they’re not likely to sell us down the river like the good old UK of England did to the grouchy fishermen and farmers
So it’s kinda no wonder some of that lot are grouchy
There are loads of comments here, so I hope I am not repeating something someone else has said, but could these results be down to when Panelbase phone the respondents? If calls take place during the day, then it’s likely a pensioner, or stay at home mum will respond. Whilst not all women and pensioners are No voters, we know they are more likely to do so than other categories of people, and also possibly less likely to have shifted their thinking since 2014.
I find these tables don’t fit with the shift we seem to be seeing from No to Yes from folk willing to speak out publicly, like those in the Phantom Power films. I just can’t believe that Brexit has caused no real shift! It’s a real worry.
“There are loads of comments here, so I hope I am not repeating something someone else has said, but could these results be down to when Panelbase phone the respondents?”
No. Panelbase are an online pollster.
Can anyone please explain with intelligence, facts and logic, why Scotland has to allow any Tom, Dick or Harry, who steps foot in Scotland, to have a vote on Scottish Sovereignty, when most other countries do not?
I don’t like the idea of promising another referendum on EU membership as a condition of indy. Yes/Leavers won’t buy it, might make the EU less helpful and no/leavers are getting their way as things are at present anyway.
These polls show how unpredictable and irrational people can be though, you’d think no/remainers would favour iScot in EFTA over UK out on it’s arse and the same for YES/leavers but who the hell knows.
the offer of efta/eea ebership WILL appeal to Yes/Leavers and no/leavers, the Norway option was the position put forward by farage during the euref. The importance of being in the single market will become very apparent in the next few months and will change a few minds
The No/leave fishermen will love it, it means scotland can cut a deal with norway and block EU AND RUK fishing fleets from scottish waters.
And it WONT make the EU less helpful, scotland has a lot of friends in the EU and I am unsure how helpful or unhelpful they will be anyway, one misleading comment from a Minor EU representative will be trumpeted for weeks by the MSM. Fact.
The promise of an EUREF is not for the NO Leavers, but for the YES remainers who dont like the idea of no longer being an eu member
Robert J. Sutherland @ 4:53pm
Agree completely.
The upcoming contest will be Brexit UK and all the uncertainties which comes with that, versus iScotland with the certainty (I blelieve) of being a full sovereign member of the EU.
We don’t need sidetracking and complexity. We will get enough of that thrown at us by WM.
Rabbits caught in the headlights?
The coming Referendum shouldn’t be on the EU but the right to decide our future destiny. When facts change you have the power to change. We cannot do this being presently tied to Westminster as we’re are at their whim and are powerless without Independence.
restricting the vote of residents who were born in england is a non starter
i understand the logic born out of a desire to win indyref but you might as well stop all residents over the age of 65 fro voting by the same logic and the numbers actually make a far more compelling case to ban OAP’s from voting
oddly enough, baning OAPs or the english from voting would impact y local yes group massively since these 2 groups describe pretty much all of the activists ??
As an ardent independence supporting Brexiteer, maybe I can shed some light on all this ‘gnashing of teeth’
People like myself are in something akin to a state of euphoria about Brexit and like it or not, at the present time it takes priority over all else.
As the people on here are praying for, it might work out badly but that’s a fair way down the tracks.
In addition, no science involved of course, I don’t think people are currently up for another referendum as, for the man in the street, they are quite stressful and can cause family problems.
The 2014 Indy ref was horrendous for that and has taken a long time to get over.
World politics are also a lot more interesting with Trump at the helm and makes the Scottish cause look very paltry indeed.
My advice therefore is to put things on ice and see how Brexit pans out as a hasty lost referendum will set the cause back decades if not generations.
I would focus on building support among soft No an non-voters. We are doing this in order to build a better Scotland, so I think it is important how we win. Pandering to the more ‘libertarian’ among us would be counter-productive, IMHO. Leave them to figure out how they can protect their interest within an increasingly authoritarian and neo-liberal UKOK, overwhelmingly dominated by remote and condescending English nationalists in Westmidden.
I agree that all those who have shown a commitment to Scotland – by working or living here for, say four or five years, should have a vote on independence.
But can it be right that someone who has just arrived and has no knowledge of the land or its history can vote on its future?
Pete says:
15 February, 2017 at 5:40 pm
As an ardent independence supporting Brexiteer, maybe I can shed some light on all this ‘gnashing of teeth’
Pete just because you’re an idiot, doesn’t mean everyone else is. God only knows why you think you have the right to tell the world, “no more democracy.” But the world does seem to be full of idiots like you Pete sometimes.
It seems to me without having read all the responses that the real issue here amongst the ‘Nos’ is simply a response to the years of anti-SNP propaganda from the MSM, rather in the same way that the EU suffered from the bent bananas etc from Murdoch and Dacre.
This fits nicely with the inherited cringe which pervades our society. We all have to up our game in defending the SNP directly. We can’t avoid it by saying that it is up to the Scottish electorate to choose other parties post independence.
This about a direct rebuttal to express our confidence in Scotland making its own choices, actively supporting the Scottish government in running the country with a limited set of powers and pointing to the idiocy of Westminster’s governance.
Interesting to hear your perspective Pete @ 5.40 pm but very depressive and undermining in tone.
Doesn’t chime with me. Thanks for sharing though =)
Nup. We go for Independence with all our hearts and souls when our Scottish Government calls the next Indy Ref.
And we never stop striving for Independence whatever the circumstances.
Anything less is what those who would keep Scotland in this rotten union want.
This poll is more bad news for Labour.
If UKez truly is representative of her (dwindling) flock, you have to ask yourself why the party is still shedding support to the Tories. (It used to be 2:1 SNP:Tory, but now it seems more like 50:50.) I have a feeling that in Scotland it’s losing the same voters rightwards that in England it’s losing to UKIP. Reactionary isolationism is on the rise everywhere, in which case “why vote for the monkey when you can vote for the organ-grinder?”
Labour has always been a coalition between mainly working-class small-c conservatives and mainly middle-class small-p progressives, and it’s the increasing rift between the two in England, driven by an isolationist BritNat MSM, that’s (eg.) so exercising the likes of the Grauniad, who are rather panicking at the prospect. And panicking so much that they see supporters of Scottish indy as part of the problem rather than part of a new progressive solution.
Progressivism may make us feel good, but knee-jerk isolationism is the problem that has to be addressed and challenged head-on. Not accommodated. And not just for Labour but also for indy, it seems. Which if it succeeds, may of course suck even more support away from Labour leftwards.
As for the Scottish Tories, while most people posting on here (like myself) tend to be left-leaning, I don’t hold that Tory support forms a completely monolithic Unionist bloc, despite their current leadership stance. I can believe there are big-C Conservatives who understand in their own terms that total domination by a Brexiteer London exited from the EU would be very bad politically and economically for Scotland.
I think the illogical voting decisions recorded perhaps indicate the unreliability of the poll.
schrodingers
I wasn’t thinking of restrictions based on nationality or ethnicity. I had an English granny, after all. A residence barrier would help improve the representitive-ness of the vote, IMHO. It would help weed out those with little or no understanding, connection or loyalty to Scotland.
For exampel, most students I spoke with running up to indy1, came from outside Scotland, had little understanding of Scotland and were almost all intending to vote No. I wouldn’t have thought many intended staying in Scotland after graduation, so their vote undermined the indicative power of the vote. They muddied the picture, with regards the true mood of Scotland. That’s how I see it anyway.
Proud Cybernat says:
hey, that would make good post drop!
Firstly because the case for having IndyRef2 largely rests on “Scotland voted to stay in, but is being dragged out against it’s will”
no it doesnt, it rests on the visible damage being done to the UK by being dragged out of the single market. It is this that will be the focus of indyref2.
it’s hard to square that with “But we’ll hold another Eu referendum immediately/soon after independence”. The media and the unionist parties would have a field day with that,
No it isnt and saying we will negotiate a bespoke deal with the eu for iscotland from the wreckage of the UK’s is what will leave us open to attack
Secondly it risks rather pissing the EU off! Which under the circumstances is something we should probably avoid doing. but doesn’t it also risk repelling those who think an independent Scotland that’s outside the EU might be worse than a Scotland that’s inside the UK but outside the EU?
No, it doesnt, The EUREF2 idea is to placate the yes/remainers.
You CANNOT just keep mouthing, “In the EU” It is this vagueness which blights the brexit campaign months after the result
So let us be very clear about this, 62% of voters opted to remain, ie the status quo. THAT status quo, no longer exists, even if the UK were to ask to cancel their attempt to leave, there is no way that the eu would agree to allow the UK to continue as before, the rebate and all of the opt outs would be removed. I repeat, the position that scotland and the ruk have at the moment wrt the EU is over, dead, an ex parrot etc
There will be no more bespoke individual country deals, ask the swiss who are being pressured into joining the 3 other EFTA countries in the EEA
If we campaign to “stay in the EU” then it be for a iscotland either as a full member with the euro or, like sweden and a few others, as a full member without the euro
I voted remain, I did not vote remain for someone to decide for me either these 2 options. Nicola does not have a mandate to negotiate or accept either of these 2 options. She would need to hold another euref in an indy scotland anyway
The EUREF2 does not need an option on the ballot paper to Leave, that has already been decided
The EUREF2 does not need an option on the ballot paper to join EFTA/EEA membership. that option has already been mandated by the 62% who voted remain. It stops scotland being pulled out of the SINGLE MARKET against its will
The EUREF2 is a sop to yes remainers with only 2 options, full membership with or without the euro.
Let’s face it: the Noes are simply comfortable. They see no need for change and are fairly confident that their own circumstances are future-proof, whatever happens.
CameronB Brodie says:
schrodingers
A tightening up of the rules concerning residency would be a good idea, stop transit or holiday home owners voting. I would agree to that
Are the polls too complicated ? Should there be so many choices ?
Realistically there are two choices. Indy in the EU, or in the UK. Thats it. Nothing else. I’d love to see a simple poll just on that question. Polls with questions on ‘in the UK and in the EU’ simply cloud matters.
Other point, Again we are not making enough of Brexit. It is the most likely thing to change minds and it is their press that is full of scare stories. We must use that as it’s the unionists (the London media mob) that are writing these stories.
Thats the main take I get from this poll, we have failed to use Brexit as a motivator, instead our indy press still battles away about oil, fish, pensions, deficit etc as directed by the usual unionist mouthpieces. We need to stop answering their calls and highlight the dangers of Brexit.
Dave McEwan Hill says:
There is always a statistic error. I believe it is quoted as 3% for sample of ~1000.
When things move by 5-10% it’s signicant.
Within the error margin, and …. well, no one really knows if it’s true or not.
We are all guilty of trying to read too much into small numbers.
Hi Pete @ 17:40,
Oh, the indyref was horrendous for you but the EUref was adorable, eh? And another indyref is totally abhorrent? Mustn’t have another of those, mustn’t we?
Not too surprising an attitude for a dyed-in-the-wool kipper, though, is it? Ho-hum. Don’t know why you bother here, really.
Keep in mind folks that what your opponent fears most is what makes you strongest.
So “bring it on”!
galamcennalath says:
15 February, 2017 at 5:37 pm
Robert J. Sutherland @ 4:53pm
Agree completely.
The upcoming contest will be Brexit UK and all the uncertainties which comes with that, versus iScotland with the certainty (I believe) of being a full sovereign member of the SINGLE MARKET.
We don’t need sidetracking and complexity of what we mean by BEING IN THE EU. We will get enough of that thrown at us by WM.
fixed that for you gala
tartanfever says:
15 February, 2017 at 6:13 pm
Are the polls too complicated ? Should there be so many choices ?
Realistically there are three choices. Indy in the SINGLE MARKET, Indy in the EU, or in the UK. Thats it. Nothing else.
fixed that 4 u
These polls and all polls before it say we’re not getting our message across, plain and simple.
If, after all that’s been since Sept ’14, Scotland isn’t clambering for self-determination then it’s because the msm are winning the headlines and information war. Neither Twitter or other pro-Indy blogs are doing it for us, and it matters not how many followers you have. Yes, we’re fortunate to have sites like WOS, Dug, IndyRef2, Bateman etc, but more has to be done. There’s a multitude out there who haven’t a clue about what we witness every day on Twitter.
We need another approach to educating people with regard to what the Tories plan to do with this country. No, I don’t have any ideas, but I know we’re doing things wrong.
I personally don’t agree with “Oh, just wait till A50 is triggered – folk’ll be up-in-arms!”.. no they won’t. Their ‘news’ sources will assure them everything’s honky-dory and they’ll swallow it readily. We’re faffing-about on social media and polls confirm this.
A lot of folk getting their knickers in a twist about anyone who voted for brexit , and how this seems incompatible with supporting Independence , Well I have voted for the SNP in every election ,National, Council , Holyrood ,you name it i have voted in all of them since i was able to vote ( age 64 ) you work it out .
So how does yours truly who has always supported Independence justify voting brexit .
TTIP just in case anyone has forgotten was being ,and might still be, was being conducted behind a totally paranoid veil of secrecy by the European Union .
Greece was turned over and its government removed a ,disgraceful act by the European Union .
Thats why i voted out , as for the result ,the Scottish people voted to stay , this majority vote i accept , so i dont get the idea if you voted for brexit your with the Tories , aye right far from it , some might see a contradiction , well tough thats life .
all that is required is a 4% + 1 vote swing toward Scottish Independence,
which going by Indy1 is 149,633 votes,
don`t know if poll includes 16/17 year old`s which if not could swing to Indy maybe 2%,
then have a six year main home residency limit on having a vote which would close it to students and those not putting roots down in Scotland,another 2%,
and then `Pete` as the one extra needed for our Independence,
nae probs.
Sunniva says:
15 February, 2017 at 6:11 pm
Let’s face it: the Noes are simply comfortable. They see no need for change and are fairly confident that their own circumstances are future-proof, whatever happens.
Again its more nuanced. Middle class Scotland YES vote is pretty much as the 2014 ref actually polled at 45%. But it gets less and less the higher up the income scale you go, right up to the queen, JKRowling. Keep your hands off my stash basically.
Its a lot like this in reverse in England, worst off and the English rich came in for Leave winning last year. Its at either end of Scottish socio economics, where losing ref 2 is possible.
There is something amiss with the Q.19 figures, they do not add up. See link to i67.tinypic.com, reworked sums in red.
Even so, this will not account for the anomaly that Rev highlighted (Tory voters who prefer independence if Labour are not to win any).
My best guess is that they might quite like independence, but are deterred by the prospect of a Labour-run Scotland. If Labour were to shrink to insignificance, they might be comfortable with independence.
Breeks @ 1.17…well said. My thoughts entirely. It’s starting to feel like a rerun of the end game in 2014. People should be up in arms at our treatment over the last few months by the EVEL English parliament….but patently over 50% couldn’t give a shit. I heard MP Patrick Grady’s interview with Derek Bateman and it was complacency writ large…do the SNP think that singing/whistling ‘Ode to Joy’ makes them look like anything but diddies in the eyes of the Unionists and the uncommitted Scottish voters?
One reason that occurs to me for the confusing figures is the unknown factor of RUK remainers who will not countenance a Scotland only in the EU.Despite all the ‘shoulder to shoulder’ stuff from many, I don’t care where anyone comes from, but what cultural and national allegiance they bring with them. Unfortunately, culturally and politically many RUK settlers fall into the ‘Scotland as a colony ‘ mindset. According to Ashcroft’s survey, it was around 72% ‘NO’at the Indyref2. This means anything up to 300-350,000 votes. As we have continued to haemorhage young graduates and skilled young Scots, who were /are overwhelmingly pro Indy. Our Population has continued to remain and grow slightly with more RUK probably contributing to this substantial minority of ‘NO’ voters.
I believe that residency is the only criterion that is fair and protects large fresh cohorts from RUK from tipping the balance in the future. …Think if BREXIT means an influx of our nearest ‘cousins’…the Ulster Scots…Loyalists..escaping a possible United Ireland. That particular population is more toxic than even the home grown mob. Long term RUK residents would then be able to vote…and become citizens of an Independent Scotland.
I realise that the biggest problem is not the above, but the 1.6 million Scots who voted ‘NO’of whom a huge majority seem unmoved by not only our national humiliation in Westminster, but by the oppression of the poor and disabled in our communities by the same malevolent source, and the immminent disaster that they are being led sleepwalking into by the insane propaganda drowning out the truth, and excreted by the media. Everyday, I walk past the array of beggars in our city streets and curse the slumbering uncaring multitudes in our population.
@Kevin
“These polls and all polls before it say we’re not getting our message across, plain and simple.”
Totally agree with your whole post. I don’t have the answers either.
Kevin
I’m not suggesting all will be fine for our cause post-A50 but we will at least have an idea of what we are being dragged in to. There will be substance to gain purchase against, which I don’t think the press will be able to spin.
Robert Graham
14% from no to yes because of brexit
13% from yes to no because of brexit
egro no change since 2014
if we can convince those 13% yes to no voters to return to yes in indyref2, we will win by a mile
If we campaigned in indyref2 for an indy scotland to have a “Norway” type arrangement with the EU, do you think these leavers would return to yes?
Lochside, fair points, but watch those stats..
The poll tells me rightly or wrongly that people are happy across the spectrum with the SNP running Scotland on a budget from England.
It also tells me that there are deeper factors influencing their voting intentions. I have no doubt immigration is one such factor.
Brexit has not yet bitten deep enough to focus minds I think. However you can take this to the Bank—-it will.
Only when people feel the impact will truth come home. Human beings tend to ignore warning signs, in preference to experience.
I remain buoyant that our baseline figure is much higher than last time. It is not much to overcome.
Robert Graham
Sorry if you thought I was having a pop as we are probably more of a similar position than you might think. The way I looked at the equation was to ask where my human rights were best served. Given the the examples you mention, how scary is it that I felt safer in the EU?
Really useful comments from:
Fiona @ 12.40 pm (though I, and most folk I know DO like the EU and everything it has brought us:) ) Agree that we need to use Brexit as an example of how Scotland’s wishes are ignored rather than just the main thrust of why we should be independent. There is still so much more that should be said in our campaign for Indy Ref 2 or New.
Arbroath 1320 @12.56 pm Yes, I too think Europeans in Scotland are likely to vote Yes this time round. This must be a truly horible time for folks not knowing what could happen.
And Tam Jardine @ 1.00 pm ‘…the strength of Scotland’s economy is underplayed’ …’Do they know our strenghts?’
THAT we have to sing out loud and clear Tam = )
Johnny @ 1.19 pm = ) ‘This could be good news because it shows that movement is possible.’
‘So I choose to hope that when an IndyRef2 campaign is in it’s midst, we will be well served by the Yes campaign, who will hopefully have worked out how to appeal to and push the buttons of as broad a spectrum of Scottish society as is possible ( and mean to do right by them of course).
Capella too = )
Phew, it’s good to hear positive constructive opinions = )
@ Terence callachan
“Scotland needs to exclude English people from voting in the Scottish referendum”
Why stop at English people? At which point the logic of the argument collapses. This sentiment has been aired, and debunked, before so I will refrain from further comment.
While it is disappointing that the Panelbase poll does not find greater support for Scotland being and independent country, consider:
a) The yoon media acts as if there is – or what is all the screeching about then?
b) Last time round support started at about 23% and peaked, prior to the vow, at about 50%, but now starts at somewhere between 46% and 50% – and campaigning has not yet started
c) Once A50 is triggered we can expect the rotating device to encounter the excrement, which might be a wakeup call for those inclined to vote for the status-quo
So, it’s going to be a slog – but not surprises there. Keep up the good work cheils.
Robert Graham
Just to clarify where I’m coming from. Greece was treated in the manner that it was because it uses the Euro. As such, the European Central Bank is their supreme authority. Similar would not be able to happen to Scotland, as nations can’t be compelled to meet Euro entry requirements.
Robert Graham @ 18:31:
Well, you had your reasons, though we could argue about those (TTIP is a dead duck and will quack no more, and your oft-quoted “abused” Greece has no intention of leaving, because they at least know when they are onto a sure thing), but let that pass.
You’re still voting for indy, though, are you not? Because you understand that there lies the real bottom line. As Marcia rightly said upthread @ 17:40, the coming referendum won’t be on the EU, or any other single issue for that matter, but the right to decide our future destiny for ourselves.
Which we can then proceed to do however we see fit. You included.
A lot of water will pass under a lot of bridges before Indy2 When the full facts are known about Brexit and people have to make their minds up about which country their children and grandchildren are to be raised in.
the Tories may want the Brexit negotiations to remain secret The EU side may not be of the same opinion, and so allow the remainers to know what the true picture is which would change a whole lot of minds.