In, out, and shaking it all about
Let’s start with a bang, then.
Since nobody wants to define devo-max and the parties of the Union won’t let anyone vote for it anyway (preferring the “Oh, we’ll sort it out for you later, just trust us” argument they so often berate the SNP for), the independence referendum has a great big hole in it where a very substantial proportion of the population would like to be.
So while the press constantly talks about “more powers” (and repeats the falsehood that the London parties are committed to them) without ever saying what the phrase means, and as Labour, the Tories and the Lib Dems frantically evade even making solid promises to think about them in the event of a No vote, we thought we’d cut straight to the chase and ask the Scottish people what they wanted.
———————————————————————————————
Q: The three main anti-independence parties have said they’ll re-examine the devolution settlement in the event of a No vote in the referendum, and may consider passing more powers to the Scottish Parliament.
Which, if any, of the following powers do you think SHOULD be devolved to Scotland in the event of a No vote?
(Tick as many as apply.)
———————————————————————————————
Welfare (eg benefits, pensions and things like the so-called bedroom tax): 60%
Control of oil revenues: 53%
Taxation (eg income tax, corporation tax and VAT): 52%
Defence (eg Scottish regiments, jobs and the siting of nuclear weapons): 35%
There should be no new powers: 19%
I believe the Scottish Parliament’s powers should be REDUCED: 6%
———————————————————————————————
A surprise straight away, for our money – welfare is the thing Scots want controlled at Holyrood more than anything else, though oil revenues and taxation are also sought by a clear majority. (The formulation of the question deliberately allowed for passive Don’t Knows, so anything over 50% is significant.)
The most popular answer with Tories was “No new powers”, with a hefty 43% backing Ruth Davidson’s original “line in the sand” position, but 21% of Conservatives also shared the belief of the sizeable and vocal Labour faction – including Brian Wilson, Michael Kelly and Tam Dalyell – that thinks Holyrood is too big for its boots and needs reining in or even abolishing entirely.
That’s a whopping total of 64% of Scottish Tories who are against ANY new powers (27% of Labour voters and 26% of Lib Dems agree with them, as do an odd 11% of SNP voters), so it’s hard to see them pushing David Cameron too hard on the subject.
Perhaps the most unexpected figure at first glance is the low score for defence, until you think about it for a moment. Devolved, rather than independent, defence makes very little sense. You don’t want jurisdictional disputes if the Russians are storming towards Berwick, and Scotland could hardly unilaterally decide to get rid of Trident if it was still in the UK (or make major cuts in spending and leave the rest of the country to fill the holes). It’s all or nothing with defence powers.
But here comes the twist.
———————————————————————————————
Q: “Better Together” chairman Alistair Darling recently said “If you want anything more than a fairly minor change to the constitutional arrangement then at some point you are going to have to ask the rest of the UK, which means that all the parties in a general election would have to have in their manifesto what they would intend to do”.
Which, if any, of the following powers do you believe the UK Parliament would be LIKELY to devolve to Scotland in the event of a No vote?
(Tick as many as apply.)
———————————————————————————————
Welfare (eg benefits, pensions and things like the so-called bedroom tax): 21%
Taxation (eg income tax, corporation tax and VAT): 14%
Control of oil revenues: 8%
Defence (eg Scottish regiments, jobs and the siting of nuclear weapons): 7%
None of the above: 48%
I believe they will REDUCE the powers of the Scottish Parliament: 19%
———————————————————————————————
These are some quite astonishing numbers, readers. Scottish voters simply aren’t swallowing the “jam tomorrow” promises of the Unionist parties. An astounding 67% of Scots believe that a No vote will result in either no new powers, or FEWER powers, for the Scottish Parliament.
Surprisingly, given that all three UK parties have so far talked solely of possible concessions on taxation, that’s not the thing people think is most likely to be devolved, with welfare scoring the highest at a still-pitiful 21%, well clear of tax on 14%.
(A technical point: it wouldn’t actually be possible under EU law to devolve VAT. We knew that, but left it in the question anyway for illustrative purposes and because, hey, who knows if the UK would still be in the EU by the time any new powers were devolved? Even the current Scotland Act isn’t due to take effect until 2015, seven years after the Calman Commission first sat.)
Perhaps tellingly, there’s a big divide among respondents who chose the “None of the above” option. SNP, Labour and Green voters are almost inseparable, with around 44% of each gloomily predicting we’d get nothing for a No.
Supporters of the two parties currently in power in the House Of Commons, however, are much more pessimistic – 61% of Tories and 63% of Lib Dems can’t see Westminster giving Scotland anything if it rejects independence. You have to wonder what they know that we don’t.
We’re going to say it again before we go, because it’s a gobsmacking result: just a third of Scottish voters think ANY new powers will actually be devolved in the event of a No vote, and two thirds think we’ll get nothing or worse.
And when we asked people to think about that, they told us something else.
———————————————————————————————
Q: If Scotland was currently an independent country, would you vote to surrender control of taxation, welfare, defence and oil revenues in order to join the Union?
———————————————————————————————
Yes: 18%
No: 55%
Don’t Know: 28%
———————————————————————————————
This is a question posed rhetorically by Yes Scotland a year ago, but we doubt even they expected such a striking answer. By a huge margin – over three to one – Scots who’ve made up their mind would NOT vote to join the Union today, with over a quarter unsure (but irrelevant, with votes against the UK already comfortably past 50%).
While they were unsurprisingly the keenest, even Tories couldn’t muster an absolute majority of “Yes To The Union” supporters, breaking 46 to 31 with 23% undecided. Only 23% of Labour voters would merge an independent Scotland with the rest of Great Britain and Northern Ireland in 2013, with more than twice as many (47%) opposed.
Lib Dems were even more comprehensively against at 16 to 54, and as you’d expect hardly any SNP voters were in favour, with a crushing 73% against and only 8% for. Every single age group also scored at least 50% against, with over-65s the most pro-Union (23%) and under-25s the most undecided (33%).
It just goes to back up something we’ve been saying for months and which has been supported by several previous polls, ruling out any reasonable suggestion that this is a freak result: most Scottish people want independence, except when you call it that.
This site said back in May that the No camp’s endless “fear, uncertainty and doubt” attacks on specific issues were irrelevant and that Yes Scotland had to successfully make just two arguments to win – that Scotland would get nothing for a No vote, and that the name of the thing Scots already actually wanted was independence.
It looks like the first of those is fairly conclusively in the bag already – almost nobody’s being fooled by the cryptic, evasive hints from the Unionist parties about some vague manner of possible extra powers, maybe, sometime, if England allows it. Squaring the second circle in the next 13 months is the Yes campaign’s biggest task.
All that’s quite a bit to take on board, so we’ll let you mull it for a while. We’ve got a whole heap of fun facts and figures still to come, so clear your diaries.
.
*All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number. Figures may not add up to 100%, either due to rounding or the type of question.
Fascinating results – I already feel as if I got value for money. 😀
Och Stu, I was just going to wait to read the results in The Scotsman, or get Brian Taylor’s analysis – is he away with Johan perhaps?
“I already feel as if I got value for money”
We’ve hardly started 😀
excellent read, cant wait for the rest.
interesting that such a large number of Labour wouldnt vote to join the union lol
Astonishingly heartening results. 🙂
Agree with Michael – looking like it was worth every penny!
Oh dang this’ll leave a mark. Can hardly wait for the contortions from Better No to start. 😀
Excellent Rev.
I am absolutely sure a huge majority of Scottish residents WANT to vote YES. These results so far underline this
I think the result of “status Quo” versus fewer powers is optimistic
SO, If Scotland were independent and had unionist parties, there wouldn’t be a majority in favour of joining the union. I love it.
Q3. If Scotland was currently an independent country, would you vote to surrender control of taxation, welfare, defence and oil revenues in order to join the Union?
Yes: 18%
Can you imagine any other country in the world doing that?
FFS.
I remember seeing Blair Jenkins posing the Q3 scenario (and yes I did click the link too) on youtube and I felt then that it was a powerful question.
These results back that up putting meat on the bone.
We are constantly told by the MSM that two-thirds of Scots
‘don’t want Independence’ but here we have only 18% saying
they would join the Union. Shame that option wasn’t available
to the public in the 1700s…
I’m thinking this poll may be one of the most important
to be done so far in the run-up to the referendum.
Can’t wait to see more results!
Only 18% would vote to join the Union. Says it all really.
Loving the stats, can’t wait to see the rest!
What’s even more exciting is waiting to see how the MSM will try to spin these results if indeed they can… 🙂
Already, this poll is reaping dividends (not of the union kind, natch).
And it’s interesting to note that no one is offering to devolve oil revenues. Devo Plus specifically ruled it out, and it’s likely that even their modest proposals are too radical for the unionist parties. As for other taxes? Well, Labour have already given that one a swift boot up the backside.
The question is: how many of those who want oil, taxes and welfare devolved – but know fine it won’t happen – have put two and two together and come up with YES?
Thanks, Rev! These are absolutely fascinating results and I can’t wait to see what else you’ve got coming along 🙂
Outstanding stuff but I’ve an issue with Q2 – its “a tick all you think apply” so the answers add up to 117%. So your 67% who think less powers cannot be right.
Mind you if you assume that people ticked both the 48% for non of the above and 19% for less powers, that brings you to 98% total, much closer. So around 50% of Scottish people think we will get no more or less powers in the event of a no vote?
Fascinating reading. Do we get more results today?
Q3. If Scotland was currently an independent country, would you vote to surrender control of taxation, welfare, defence and oil revenues in order to join the Union?
No: 55%
It’s going to be interesting seeing how No Scotland manage to spin that one…
Wow. These are quite something else!
When there is no love for the union, no belief that we would get what we want/need by being in the union, when people would choose not to join the union if it was proposed today, what is left?
These people are ready to be convinced. Exciting times ahead.
Question 1
I cannot for the life of me work out how 25% of people, Scots, would want NO further powers or reduced powers for the Scottish Parliament.
Why, why, why??? Are these people scared or what?
This is great Rev you have asked questions that can really make a difference if used properly.
I am sure if YES ask you will share this with them?
ONLY 18% OF SCOTS WOULD VOTE TO JOIN THE UNION
An obvious headline, but I can’t see the MSM running with it.
Perhaps the SG missed a trick – they could have declared UDI in 2011 and then promised Scotland a referendum to stay in the union if so desired!
Very interesting, and the numbers will take a bit more studying, but its good to see the poll supporting the idea that the majority want extra powers, and that they haven’t fallen for the ‘Jam Tomorrow’ lines of the ‘No Scotland’ camp.
But I’m kinda stumped as to what logic the 8% of SNP voters who would choose to join the Union now are using though? Any suggestions?
This is great stuff and close to what many of us hope/expected. I do have a wee concern that we’re interupting the enemy during a mistake. I’m sure they know they’re making an arse of it already but the data might pinpoint areas for course correction. My feeling is that even with 13months to go its too late for them. The dam is really bust.
Doug, I don’t think they’ll even attempt to. Instead it’ll just be another smear, another attack, dismissed as SNP black ops, an allegedly imploding LfI.
Wonder if Project Fear will commission an independent survey using questions of their choice? Go on Blair, spend some blue tory money on it.
Talking to people I’ve found this in many cases too, when the powers and needs are discussed as separate issues they want us to control them, but they just don’t join up the dots and recognise that only Independence will allow control.
I have talked to people who have said they would want Scotland to be Independent but are voting No!
Q3 : 18% would give up powers to join with r’UK. Surprising high, and about the Conservative Vote in Scot Gove elections – but made up from a party mix.
And Who are these 8% SLABCON infitrators in the SNP; 🙂
@Tearlarch
I also have issues with Q2, mainly with the conclusion that 67% believe we won’t get any new powers. There are other powers that could be devolved that aren’t listed, which people may think will be devolved, therefore 48% might not think that no extra powers will be devolved. People may think that Westminster will devolve some less meaningful powers.
Also could respondents tick “None of the above“ and “I believe they will REDUCE the powers of the Scottish Parliament“? If so then drawing the conclusion that 67% believe we won’t get any extra powers is wrong.
“But I’m kinda stumped as to what logic the 8% of SNP voters who would choose to join the Union now are using though? Any suggestions?”
To be fair, it was a well known phenomenon that a minority of people voted SNP on the principle that they were doing a good job in Government, without supporting the aim of independence. I guess it is a dark mirror of people voting for the Unionist parties despite supporting independence.
This is indeed excellent information. It is clear, that despite the bare faced lies from the unionist cabal in bitter together, Scots simply do not believe Westminster would ever give more powers to Scotland.
Today, I have a skip in my step.
The confidence of Salmond, and his trust in the Scottish electorate is proven simply by this one result. in 1979, there was NO internet, all people knew was what the propagandist media and BBC pravda told them – and even then there was a majority for devolution.
The simple fact is, Scots voters are not as daft as London thinks.
Looking forward to more juicy news, as it arrives
“I cannot for the life of me work out how 25% of people, Scots, would want NO further powers or reduced powers for the Scottish Parliament”
That’ll be the “PEEPUL” if you get my meaning.
@KraftyKris
Yep – lots of other reasons as to why, but the 67% figure cannot be right, as the totals are 117%. Easy to do, but needs sorted before that 67% figure gets used as a stick to beat the rest of this brilliant piece.
Will you be giving these results to the mainstream press, Rev?
I have a feeling that BT already know what is going on in Scotland, from their own private polling. Unfortunately, they never paid for this one, so they cannot bury the results.
@heraldnomore
‘Wonder if Project Fear will commission an independent survey using questions of their choice? Go on Blair, spend some blue tory money on it.’
I’m sure they already have, repeatedly, in a ‘keep asking till we get the right answers’ kinda way.
“Outstanding stuff but I’ve an issue with Q2 – its “a tick all you think apply” so the answers add up to 117%. So your 67% who think less powers cannot be right.”
No, you’ve misunderstood. The individual powers were “tick as many as you want” answers, but the bottom two were either-or. So it’s perfectly possible for 67% to think there’ll be no new powers while the other numbers add up to more than 33%.
Panelbase check what you’ve written about results before you publish them, to make sure you haven’t gotten anything like that wrong. They’ve cleared everything you see above.
Fascinating results – I already feel as if I got value for money
That’s the beauty of crowdfunding. Those three questions cost me less than a quid. 🙂
Very interesting!
In a future poll, it’d be interesting to make Q3 look more like Q1 and Q2, e.g., “If Scotland was already an independent country and was considering joining the UK, which of the following powers would you be willing to surrender in order to join? [List of powers.] [] I would not be willing to join the UK under any circumstances.”
People are asking about the 8% of SNP voters. The voting question was not about voting intention, rather how respondents had voted at the last election. Therefore the 8% could simply be floating voters, ex-Labour voters, or voters for parties who had no constituency candidates at the last election.
Also, it doesn’t necessarily follow that natural SNP voters (fully) support independence; they may just be lefties who wouldn’t dream of voting Labour and use their vote to see the party whose policies they prefer overall, regardless of their view on independence.
Brilliant stuff Rev. This is great the way you’re presenting this to us, working through the methodology behind the questions, it makes it much easier to understand.
Thanks Rev – that’s a much better result, I did wonder how a simple error (that even I could see) could creep through. That makes the 67% even more impressive. You may want to edit that explanation in to the main piece so other’s – possibly less friendly – do not jump to the same conclusion as me, and it then becomes a “fact”
Hi Stu – Thanks for the smart questions. Looking forward to the next set of stats!
Very interesting questions so far Rev, but in my mind the answers to question three don’t answer the questions asked. The question they answer is: “Are you a hard-lined unionist, who will vote to remain a part of the union no matter what and under any circumstances?” And the answer is 18%.
The only concern I have is that by releasing the results over more than one day, you might reduce the chance of any media coverage. I don’t know what that chance was anyway, but it’s just a thought.
Restlessnative says:
8 August, 2013 at 12:26 pm
“I cannot for the life of me work out how 25% of people, Scots, would want NO further powers or reduced powers for the Scottish Parliament”That’ll be the “PEEPUL” if you get my meaning.
============================================================
I get your meaning and as stated before i find it offensive and ill informed.
Many Rangers Season ticket holders and shareholders are as committed to Independence as anyone.
I would wager that if we did a poll at Ibrox , Parkhead and Firhill you would get around the same outcomes.
FYI Of a Saturday more British MPs .MSPs and Councillors sit in Parkhead Stands than any other ground in entire United Kingdom.
Go figure !!
“Many Rangers Season ticket holders and shareholders are as committed to Independence as anyone.
I would wager that if we did a poll at Ibrox , Parkhead and Firhill you would get around the same outcomes.”
Completely non-sarcastically, I would love if someone did that. Has nobody polled any of the big Rangers forums? (I’d check, but they’re so paranoid I’ve never been able to sign up for one.)
I have three questions:
In the interests of legitimacy – what was the sample size?
Does anyone think that this poll will make it on to the MSM?
How can we get the message out? – what about billboard advertising?, we are many and it has been established we don’t mind dipping into our pockets when there is a clear, obtainable objective. I for one would donate a LOT more towards a billboard campaign. How much do these bad boys cost?
“In the interests of legitimacy – what was the sample size?”
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Good results, however a bit worrying that 47% think control of oil revenues should not be devolved – who are those people?
angers Supporters for Scottish Independence | Facebook
link to facebook.com…/Rangers…Independence/10902034592818…?
Rangers Supporters for Scottish Independence. 424 likes · 7 talking about this. A page where Rangers fans can show their support for an Independent Scotl
Rangers FC, SNP Supporters – Glasgow – Club | Facebook
link to facebook.comRangers-FC-SNP…/121113214586741?
Fictional Character. LikeUndo. Rangers & Chelsea. Amateur Sports Team. LikeUndo. 22 Sept, 2012 March and Rally for Scottish Independence – Edinburgh
Very encouraging figures, which I think may provide an unexpected spin-off. A gauge of how strong the ‘cringe’ is.
Re. the 8% SNP voters who would join the Union. I bet they are all in their forties and still live with their parents. 🙂
Magnificent work, Stu.
I am sure the BBC are eager to pick up on these results, particularly the fact that only 18% would vote to join the Union. Over to you, Mr Boothman.
@ Rod mac
At Firhill we’re all pro-indy 😉
“the totals are 117%”
Here’s a clue: “Tick any that apply”
Early days in the indy ref debate and already there is a healthy degree of scepticism around unionist “promises”. Q3 just shows much harder to give something up once you have it. Folks just need to think about the future and voting for Labour, SNP, etc in an independent Scotland.
Damnation! How the blazes am I supposed to settle for my siesta now? Blood pressure’s up, adrenalin pulsing and enough testosterone to fuel the removal of trident single-handed.
Nurse…… tranquiliser please 🙂
Q3 is perfect, basically the core union vote is ~18% and is being boosted by ~30% soft votes in polls due to inertia or fear. Most of the winning “No” at 48% polls currently show a ridiculous 87% turnout which means at least 13% of folks in polls who say they are going to vote, frankly aren’t actually going to vote at all and I don’t think it would be fair wager now to suggest which side they aren’t going to bother turning out to vote for…
What is detectable from the above results is that it appears that Scotland really is on a collision course with Westminster. Interesting times are upon us.
Also with a huge majority of Tories wanting to either reduce powers at the Scottish Parliament or abolish it completely shows us that we are right to never ever trust the odious Westminster Tory party currently and very likely to still be our Government come the Scottish independence referendum next year and beyond. With the very real prospect of them also forming a new Government in 2015/16 as a majority or in coalition with UKIP, it looks likely that Scotland will vote to exit this toxic London centric union.
@naebd
The Rev has already sorted this one out. The “tick any that apply” only applied to the first part of the question, so the 67% figure is solid.
Here’s a clue – You may want to check through the comment thread first in future. 🙂
The fact that there’s a pro-independence majority in the hypothetical scenario that Scotland is already independent I think shows that:
People are in favour of a successful independent Scotland. The scenario implies that Scotland has gone through all the uncertainty and is a viable entity. This rings true (although when you witness real full-on unionists you do wonder).
People have a hard time envisaging such a big change happening. Even I have difficulty imagining a yes vote and all that that entails. It would/will definitely be Interesting Times.
That’s my non-insightful two p.
Here’s a clue – You may want to check through the comment thread first in future.
Cheers, but (at least to me) the fact you point out was obvious. The last two answers are exclusive.I was just pointing out to somebody else why the sum could add up to more than 100%
@DougieDouglas
Does anyone think that this poll will make it on to the MSM?
Not a chance. However, it does appear that, if the Unionists do not make a firm and binding offer on more powers, they risk losing the referendum. I honestly cannot see them coming up with a firm guarantee of more powers.
Shinty, its not so bad that 47% is made up of undecided and dont knows, not just those who say no 🙂
Maybe we’ll see a couple of column inches on how a Nationalist Website conducted a poll?
I think this poll is fascinating and will be hard to ignore, but WoS is not hugely chummy with the Scottish Media, so you know… I can’t see it becoming a front page splash 🙂 Very interested to see how it’ll play out.
If YES Scotland offer it up to the MSM would it not be more likely to get some air time?
Dying Unionist Stooge Media aside, it’ll provide lots of infographic-fodder for Yes Scotland. Social media is the future and all that.
Oh and thanks for putting all of this together Rev, excellent job. I don’t think its an exaggeration to say yourself especially and WoS community in general is actually making a noticable impact on the debate.
Let’s get this info shared out to the masses folks!
People have a hard time envisaging such a big change happening.
They do, yes. But the closer the time gets and it becomes quite obvious the sky isn’t falling towards them, the less nervous they get. Businesses haven’t been running away, the economy is not collapsing as we were warned. Life is just going on as normal (ok getting crapper for many due to Westminster policies past and present but you catch my drift).
And standing in that booth they’ll find when the pencil touches the Yes box on the ballot paper nothing happens. Start to draw the X and still no sudden thunder and lightening with darkening skies. Move onto the second stroke and yep, still no sign of impending doom; no trembling of the ground, dogs barking madly, people running past screaming. Nope, nothing. Seems safe enough. They’ll go home and have tea; still nothing will be wrong. The next morning the sun will rise just as it always has.
And so on.
Very few people who would like an independent Scotland in their heart will vote No. They’ll stay at home or vote Yes, even if it is a last minute ‘oh my god’ decision. After all, what harm could one more Yes vote do. It’s just one vote after all…
It’s why such referenda normally deliver a Yes / result in independence.
PS Great stuff Rev. I’ve no complaints about the questions; good approach and not leading.
Geoff Huijer says:
We are constantly told by the MSM that two-thirds of Scots
‘don’t want Independence’ but here we have only 18% saying
they would join the Union. Shame that option wasn’t available
to the public in the 1700s…
I suspect it would have gone ahead anyway and executed under more sinister terms!
Back to the poll. Some fascinating results.
The most heartening thing I’m taking away from this (so far) is that the people of Scotland are not taken in by Better Together’s smear, fear & jam tomorrow campaign.
I think it’s already a given that people want real change. As others have pointed out, we must convince people that what they already crave IS independence under a different name.
Alba gu brath
There will be lots of good talking points for family, friends, colleagues and ba’heids in the pub.
Looking forward to the next installment…
I still think you should be careful with drawing the conclusion that 67% don’t think Scotland will get any extra powers. 48% think that the powers you listed will not be devolved, you don’t list all the possibilities, so some of that 48% may think that other powers may be devolved.
Stu, first and foremost, well done and thank you from us all.
If you haven’t already done so, may I suggest that you circulate this outside the UK MSM? e.g. RT, Reuters, Associated Press etc. This would make it more difficult for the UK MSM to ignore.
As Darling himself said, the only clear way towards more powers for the Scottish Parliament is for the Westminster parties to place such commitment in their election manifestos.
This is not going to happen by indy ref (or even after). Can anyone really see the Tories or Westminster ConLabour do that? People are already seeing through this nonsense.
When the information of this poll gets out there into the public domain.
We can be assured of one tihng Project Fear and their pals in MSM and BBC will do everything possible to rubbish the answers.
Loaded questions etc that vile blogger and satanist Rev Stu behind it ,just ask that nice Mr McDougall about how he was stalked bullied and threatened by the big bad cybernat Rev Stu bla bla bla
If the MSM don’t run with it we will simply have to spread the word ourselves. Perhaps, once the good Reverend has finished explaining everything to us, he will be able to provide some easy to digest one-liners and/or graphs etc that can be circulated via other social media sites.
This is a poll of the people, by the people, so to speak, so provided it is highlighted in that way, people will naturally be interested in the results. The fact that a group of random strangers got together to pay for it, is news in itself. This poll and the results have a unique selling point and that should be shouted from the rooftops.
Scottish_skier – yes I agree with you that:
The marking of ballot papers will not trigger adverse meteorological activity.
Tea will still infuse into hot water on 18/11/14.
The Earth’s rotation will continue regardless of Scotland’s constitutional status.
I reckon even most arch-Unionists would agree with those. Maybe not Michael Forsyth. 😉
This suggests why Better Together are in panic mode. They’ve probably been asking the same questions in a private poll.
These results, and the stuff to come, do tend to back up the feeling – already highlighted by Stu in the article – that a clear majority want independence, but are just not yet in the position to articulate it yet.
Its very similar to the run up to the 2011 landslide. All the SNP’s internal polling and focus groups highlighted that their message and policies were clear winners, but this did not translate through to the polls until the last few weeks. Torrance’s bio of Salmond (Second Edition) covers that poll issue well.
Oops. Got the referendum date wrong there. Disqualified.
KraftyKris – but if these people are ruling out welfare, taxation, oil revenues and defence, then what powers WOULD they think might get devolved? And would that not be tantamount to the same thing anyway?
big_al at 12:19 8/8
I cannot for the life of me work out how 25% of people, Scots, would want NO further powers or reduced powers for the Scottish Parliament.
Why, why, why??? Are these people scared or what?
They are strong Lab or Tory supporters and would see them as a further step to Independence.
How about asking BBC’s favourite public opinion expert, Prof Curtice to comment on the results? Invite him to provide an interpretation as an article for WoS!
@Doug Daniel
Reserved matters include:
benefits and social security
immigration
defence
foreign policy
employment
broadcasting
trade and industry
nuclear energy, oil, coal, gas and electricity
consumer rights
data protection
the Constitution
link to scottish.parliament.uk
This has made my day.
Can it get any better?
Luigi
Seconded.
People may also be unsure as to whether it is asking if they think all powers related to taxation are likely to be devolved or any of them.
I did have my reservations about asking rhetorical questions (Q3) in the poll, but having seen so much money was raised, I suppose there was room for it – and having seen the result, it does give a really strong and important answer. Just don’t listen to me in future.
And folks – this is not our survey. It is a Panelbase survey, we only commissioned it.
Kris, looking at that list, I still think you’re needlessly quibbling.
Some of those items are “wouldn’t even be devolved in the most maxy of devo maxes”.
Other items are “oh, I’d have thought this was part of X” where X was in the survey.
I think the survey options were sufficient in identifying peoples’ feelings about further devolution and didn’t leave out anything meaningful, in the sense of painting a false picture.
I’ve linked to this page and posted Q3 on the Guardian politics live section. Wonder if anyone will comment on it? I know John Ruddy is a frequent poster on that page.
KraftyKris, its a fair point but there is only limited space, this is the exact same arrangement as the Scottish Social Attitudes survey questions on Devo Max and contains the main areas of policy people are broadly aware of.
Kris – stop it. you’re making me start to come out in that rash I got while reading the ‘Hey Gang, what do you think of these two questions?’ thread.
That’s certainly cheered me up 🙂 well done can’t wiait to see the rest…
Rod Mac – there is also a joint Celtic & Rangers for Independence FB page with 789 likes.
Since I started reading Wings, I’ve learned a few things – one such is never to wake what the media say at face value. A year ago, I was doing just that and was in severe doubt that we would win the referendum. Now? I’m in severe doubt that we’ll use the referendum.
These reults are fantastic news and reaffirms what I’ve been telling folk myself – the polls reported in the MSM do not show the whole story. They say we’re likely to lose, but the word on the street is saying we’re going to win.
Scotland is heading for independence. In 2014, we’ll win.
naebd – yes, exactly.
KraftyKris,
You’re beginning to sound like Currywurst on the legal status of Scotland last night…..
@ a supporter
That 25% would pretty much accurately quantify the core status quo vote wouldn’t it?
I am quietly very pleased.
Lots of meat to the bone.
Brilliant work and very very encouraging overall.
Be assured that Better Together and BBC Scotland will attack the poll in the grounds that
1. YOU sponsored it so the questions must be fixed and so the results bogus
2. Just over 50% for control of taxation and oil revenues. Despite your poll weighting point I am shocked this is not a lot more and will be spun by Pacific Quay to show that a lot of big handed large hearted Scots still want to support good old Blighty in its time of need Bless em all.
3. Confusion among respondents will be another attack line – in Q1 60% want Welfare in the hands of Holyrood but do not appear to understand this needs to be financed by having the full economic powers which only slightly more than 50% support.
I can see the “journalists” at Pacific Quay delighting in that – need to explain the power of these weightings in Q1 Stuart to us as well since you appear to think that these weightings are really significant.
Overall the message is positive and lines up with my own canvassing experience
Doug
Good point, I think the only thing left might be the Foreign Office. The wee stuff like control of pointy sticks and whether doors should be painted red are not exactly on the “I really care about that” radar.
I think the reverse question if independent 55% would vote to stay so is the one that matters. We have 37% saying they will vote Yes we need that 16% over and above that opt to stay independent to also vote Yes…that is it job done.
@Naebd
“It would/will definitely be Interesting Times.”
I’m so looking forward to living in Interesting Times! Especially when all the pro union types realise the game’s up and need to cast around for a new rationale.
Great work Rev.
Not surprisingly, nothing on any news website about it yet. One lives in hope!
What the unionist lot will do regarding more powers for Holyrood, they will hang on as long as they can, then when their polls start to show the YES vote almost even with or in front of theirs, they will drip feed things to be devolved starting with the most unimportant and then building up only if they have to, they will also continue to use evasive terms like could & maybe etc, whilst keeping up their forecasts of doom, thereby trying to turn their campaign from a negative to a positive.
Our job, to keep in touch with voters at the level we are aiming for and which I believe is now showing returns, to keep on questioning the NO camp and basically work, work. work and if we can recruit!
No magic formula, just the obvious!
First class Rev Stu, can’t wait for the next one… 🙂
Calman wouldn’t touch welfare as it was one of the things that held us together as British he said. Now the Tories are bringing in the Bedroom Tax ill suited to the 38 million Brits who do not live in Greater London (Savill’s report in todays FT) and are floating the idea that there should be different levels of benefit in places where living costs differ.
If there is a 2015 Tory government / coalition, it is quite possible that we will have welfare forcibly devolved to us and not on the Barnet formula either. We should be careful what we wish for, knowing the way the Unionists will spin it.
Wee_m
It is on Yes Facebook though so it will rapidly circulate through the No camp. Expect rebuttals. One chap already thought it was just us voting and that 55% opting to sat independent on a pro-independence site was poor. It will interesting to see how they spin it. The Cochrane types are going to hate the results with a vengence. Those on the No side that believe their own promises will take comfort in Devo Maybe offering enough. I wonder when it will sink in there isn’t a Devo Anything on the table.
Scots don’t love the Union even after all the propaganda. They grudgingly accept it as a compromise as they collectively feel we don’t have what it takes to be independent.
That’s why the No camp unwaveringly go on viability by never saying clearly but implying we’re not capable. They’ve put all eggs in that basket, actually. This could be their downfall if Yes manage to push what BBC, No, most journos admit: that Scotland is capable of independence from a financial point of view.
“most Scottish people want independence, except when you call it that”
Fascinating, and key. People know that they should run their own affairs, they really do. But they get spooked when it’s called something apparently radical like ‘independence’. They feel that they’re having to buy into something rather outré (sorry, pretentious, can’t think of an English word).
Make a checklist of powers that Westminster has reserved then ask the average Scot which of those should be given to Edinburgh and he’ll check every box. And then declare that he still doesn’t fancy independence.
“I get your meaning and as stated before i find it offensive and ill informed.”
Apologies if I’ve offended you but you cant deny that there is a rabid
unionist element among the Ibrox faithful.And why bring “Parkhead” into it?
Leave the “whataboutery” for another day.
My point was there is a certain faction in this country that that revels
in proclaiming they are “the people” and have a loathing for their country of birth or those who wish that country free.
Not offensive,not ill informed,fact.
Again my apologies,but you can’t blame a man for wishing his country rid of their supremacist attitude,an attitude based on the very things were voting to get rid of.
pmcrek says:
8 August, 2013 at 1:07 pm
Oh and thanks for putting all of this together Rev, excellent job. I don’t think its an exaggeration to say yourself especially and WoS community in general is actually making a noticable impact on the debate.
THIS
Great stuff Rev, BUT – there’s always a but – the poll is a week too early!
Yesterday the new boss of the Bank of England advising that interest rates will continue at the present level until unemployment falls below 7%, projected to be about 2016. So if Scotland’s unemployment alone falls below 7% we’ll just have to wait for rUK.
Better -to wait – Together?
i wonder how this would affect the responses in your poll?
A well spent tenner from my pooch
Well I’ve had one response to posting Q3
“What a bizzare question!
If Scotland was independent would you vote to have all haggis and tartan flown in from the moon?
Give it up, the Yes vote is going to lose.”
none so blind it seems…
I have to say I am also glad I opened the HandandShrimp vaults to let loose a few groats and some moths. Money well spent (not often I say that).
What is bizarre about asking if Scotland was still an independent country would you opt to join the Union? If the Union is so much “better” surely the answer would be Yes. The question highlights that the No vote is playing on fear of change. There is a default gut feeling that Scotland is a country and that if it was still independent and people did not have to worry about change then independence would be the preferred option. It shows the No vote has a soft vote that actually leans the other way by heart and we just need to convince the mind.
Haggis and moons? – now that is bizarre. We were once independent when did we ever import haggis from the moon? The response demonstrate an inability to think and an ability to grasp at straws.
It will be very interesting to see if Q3 will make it into any of the MSM, it’s a headline-grabber but probably not the result they fancy. I just hope that, if it does make it, this is portrayed as an independent survey done by Panelbase (which is it) as opposed to a mad Cybernat-sponsored hatchet job. We’ll wait and see what spin is attached to it!
CameronB says:
8 August, 2013 at 12:45 pm
Re. the 8% SNP voters who would join the Union. I bet they are all in their forties and still live with their parents.
NO; …… Just the usual masquerading Labour / Tory muppets pretending to be SNP supporters online Im sure.
Still they did well to manage 8% dont you think ?
Yep, I predict there’ll be a lot of theatrical eye-rolling and attempts to paint hypothetical questions as just KERRRRAYYYZEEE. It’s always interesting to see a flimsy hive-mind response taking shape.
Not totally surprising, but a welcome confirmation, and very encouraging.
Rev,
Yes, yes, great enthusiasm, but all of this is meaningless, until a certain polling ‘expert’ from Strathclyde university has a chance to rubbish it on Newsnight Scotland.
panda paws – yeah, that sounds similar to my Tory-voting unionist friend. “Give it up, you’re going to lose, no one’s stupid enough to vote for independence, Alex Salmond blah blah blah” etc.
It’s the sound of someone being forced to confront a question they hoped they’d never have to face. It’s the sound of panic. It’s the sound of someone who needs to portray bravado to conceal their fear.
“Give it up, the Yes vote is going to lose.”
I’m sure others have noticed the recent increase in No Scotland acolytes repeating this mantra to themselves and to anyone who will listen. Michael Kelly’s insane column in the Scotsman today is a case in point.
Edit: Doug, beat me to it!
They are seriously rattled.
As Blair MacDougal tweeted a couple of weeks ago that the SG had a figure for the defence budget, but why aren’t they telling us, even though it had been announced publicly three times, he will have no problem utterly failing to understanding this poll, and making up a completely false version of the results.
Somehow, I think, that ‘result’ will be the one the media try very hard to report!
Has BBC Scotlandshire had Professor Poultice look at the figures yet?
SHE SPEAKS!!!!! The Wings poll has brought the lesser-spotted Johann out of her hibernation (maybe): link to twitter.com
I had that converstation regarding the you are going to lose thing and said. “Fine, well we will just have to work harder and your lot needn’t bother voting as it is so clearly in the bag 🙂
Al Jazerra fast becoming more trusted than the BeeB internationally , CNN , Fox get it out to them all. If the yanks pick it up, UK MSM will not be able to ignore it.
Well done Rev and all who helped out.
Not offensive,not ill informed,fact.Again my apologies,but you can’t blame a man for wishing his country rid of their supremacist attitude,an attitude based on the very things were voting to get rid of=========================================================
It is not fact , it is perhaps in your mind but ti is not fact.
You are acting like the unionists do with Oil ,or Scottish viability.
They believe so parade it as a “fact” without any substansial proof.
It is the willie Bain Principle in football ,some people hate rangers more than they love their own club.
I brought in FACT regarding Celtic because it is the kind of reality someone like yourself chooses to ignore.
More British Labour MPs ,MSPS Councillors sit in Parkhead Stands than any other ground in Britain.
Perhaps you can tell us a Rangers Director ,never mind a Chairman that has been a British Cabinet Minister.
I was brought up in the south side my father took me to my fisrt game in the 1950s.
I have never been a Rule Britannia muppet ,nor was my father.
There are many many Rangers fans supporting Independence.
I would suggest as a % as many as any football team in Central Belt.
So I do take exception and offence to this blanket willie Bain rule with Rangers fans.
@ panda paws
none so blind it seems…
Probably as the result of an attack of normalcy bias, possibly brought on by a dose of the ‘cringe’.
HandedShrimp lol, whats the exchange rate like for moths like these days? If its gone up I better find a way to stop the cats eating them,
Lets help move this along a little, I’ve posted this article to the WorldNews and UKPolitics subreddits on reddit.com, it was already posted on the /r/Scotland subreddit. If you have a reddit account or wish to create one (its worth it, fast, easy and you don’t even need to provide an email) please login and upvote 🙂
Great job Rev, saw your tweet RE media coverage… did you send out a press release?
link to reddit.com
link to reddit.com
link to reddit.com
“Great job Rev, saw your tweet RE media coverage… did you send out a press release?”
PR is not my strong field. Tweeted every Scottish political journo I could think of, so far only three have replied at all, and not a single one has asked for the raw data or anything else. Need someone with marketing skills to take it beyond that 🙂
It’ll be interesting if they don’t cover it. Indeed, it’ll be such an absolutely blatant display of indefensible, naked, extraordinary open bias that it’ll have been worth the money just for that.
I’m halfway through the first bag of chocolate raisins, when’s the next bombshell due? 🙂
“I’m halfway through the first bag of chocolate raisins, when’s the next bombshell due?”
Pending text approval from PB, 5pm.
Great stuff. The Yes Camp has all the arguments already – in fact, some of these results are very similar to previous polls – we just need to use them better.
Keep it simple. Reinforce, keep on reinforcing, two basic messages – that you really want control of your own destiny, irrespective of what you want to call it; and that if you already had it, you would never even think of giving it up.
HnS: the question highlights that the No vote is playing on fear of change. There is a default gut feeling that Scotland is a country and that if it was still independent and people did not have to worry about change then independence would be the preferred option. It shows the No vote has a soft vote that actually leans the other way by heart
That’s what all the polling / SSAS etc data I’ve collected over the years says clearly to me.
That and an alien landing here today would decide they’re in a country called Scotland from all they can see around them (saltires, thistles, tartan, Scottish this and that), even during the year of the Great British jublympics…
I suspect those who were around back in the 1950’s can confirm that Scotland is more ‘Scottish’ now than it has ever been in recent history. Even the changes over my time (grew up in the 80’s) are stark. Britain is almost ‘visually’ (and physically) gone from Scotland.
As British ‘society’ was torn out of Scotland (privatisation of British industries, destruction of the welfare state etc, i.e. what held Britain together in the post war years), so Scotland has become itself again.
——
Incidentally, the above poll findings highlight why the Tories ken the game’s up.
Remember, the unionist parties could have held a referendum any time they wanted if they were so confident Scotland would vote no.
Instead, they’ve done everything in their power to stop one for over 70 years (as support has risen for home rule / indy). They know in all probability what the result will be.
Q3 is a good indicator of what’s in the heart and thus what will happen.
5pm
YASSSSSS
“5pm
YASSSSSS “
Pending approval from PB. There are some quite complicated figures that need double-checking.
Doug Daniel
that sounds similar to my Tory-voting unionist friend. “Give it up, you’re going to lose, no one’s stupid enough to vote for independence, Alex Salmond blah blah blah” etc.
You’re not alone, I too have a friend exactly like that. I’ve decided to give up speaking about Indy until next year, cos’ she does come out with some crackers.
Scottish Skier,
very well put.
I was having a realy bad day today. Not any more! This is better than I’d hoped.
In an uncanny bit if timing there is this:
link to blog.whatscotlandthinks.org
which has a UKOK spin on the mysterious SNP voters who might say no.
There are some other signs that WOS is attracting attention – an old friend has challenged Rev Stu to apologise for something everyone else has forgotten about. I’ll not provide a link because it is a site of unparalleled snarling nastiness.
Well done Rev Stu for anticipating and doing while the rest of us sit back and enjoy.
A few more responses now including John Ruddy stating
“Sorry, I refuse to believe anything written by the Misogynist from Bath.”
I’m assuming Rev that’s libel.
“defamation, a claim must generally be false and have been made to someone other than the person defamed” according to wiki.
You might want to get yourself over for a screen shot.
““Sorry, I refuse to believe anything written by the Misogynist from Bath.”
I’m assuming Rev that’s libel.”
It is, and it’s also a little bit racist. Not sure why my living in Bath would discredit a UK polling company polling people who live in Scotland.
Where’s that from?
As this is a properly conducted poll, John Curtice will include this into his Referendem Blog which I think he has the Yes side higher than what the media are running with;
link to blog.whatscotlandthinks.org
Cool beans Rev.
Edge of seat and looking forward to it.
A few more responses now including John Ruddy stating
“Sorry, I refuse to believe anything written by the Misogynist from Bath.”
I’m assuming Rev that’s libel.
No, it really isn’t. He can refuse to believe anything he likes, quite legally.
“He can refuse to believe anything he likes, quite legally.”
Yeah, but he can’t call me a misogynist.
Not that I’d sue him for it in a million years, but it IS defamatory, as it’s utterly untrue.
(There’d also be a case that he’s defaming me by implying I’m a liar, when I’ve simply published some poll results.)
Oh I see, you mean the “misogynist” part? Is that term actually defamatory? I suppose technically, but I doubt you’d find anyone taking action over it.
Here’s a story from this week about someone winning a £40,000 court award for being called a paedophile on Twitter:
link to dailyrecord.co.uk
“Misogynist” is obviously a way down the scale from “paedophile”, but we do now live in a world where you can’t just call folk nasty untrue stuff on Twitter.
link to theguardian.com
Bright side 2 WOS articles now linked.
Luigi – Prof John Curtis would rather open a vein than comment fairly on this poll – anyway his psephology skills have been ‘verrry suspwect’ of late in his other day job with auntie Beeb and he’s got no cred left – sad really!
[reins in excessive exuberance]
Ahhh, John Ruddy – the prototype Duncan Hothersall.
fantastic results!
I’m not surprised at the SNP for no further powers, because people who do not want independence still think the SNP are the party that best serves our nation, hence why SNP gets 48% in the latest times poll.
BT can call rev names and attempt to discredit these polling results, but as the results themselves show the people of Scotland are not daft.
We have mostly rejected the scare stories so Blair McDougals campaign strategy has completely failed and this is the headline that we need to be copying around the web.
‘Blairs McDougals, Project Fear campaign is not scaring the Scots’
sub- ‘New panelbase poll shows overwhelming majority of Scots think he isn’t telling the truth about independence’
Project Fear from Planet Fear has failed.
Initiate Project Smear from Planet Smear
Exterminate!
@Doug Daniel
Trying to figure out who you’ve insulted there, if anyone.
Maybe both of them would find that a flattering comparison.
@Rev Stu
It’ll be interesting if they don’t cover it. Indeed, it’ll be such an absolutely blatant display of indefensible, naked, extraordinary open bias that it’ll have been worth the money just for that.
I believe they will not cover it. Hope I am wrong, but cannot see MSM in Scotland covering this poll, and its findings.
Well done Stu. What a breath of fresh air. I look forward to more crowdfunded projects. They can’t keep ignoring you. Real democracy at work.
It’s good to burn the heather now and again. Allows for regeneration. Gets rid of the old wood. Talking of which,…..Aha! John Ruddy! Anyone got a light?
Something which can be kept in mind, as we know the reason the NO mob won’t mention what powers will be devolved to Holyrood following a NO vote is because they don’t want to give up anything, now i’m not just stating the bleeding obvious here for the sake of it, but to point out that what we have to do at every opportunity is to keep asking them until it becomes bleeding obvious to even more of our countrymen and women what their true intention is and also something which will act against them even when they don’t answer.
That’s also why the recent comments by Tam Dalyell and Michael Kelly are so useful, because it boxes them into a corner, we can now start asking others in the NO camp if they support that view and even if they say no then we can call it what it is, a split in their ranks.
Tactics folks, tactics!
For those asking who are the ones voting No but voted SNP. Quite simple in that they may vote for the SNP MSP in a constituency seat who has a high personal vote. The SNP MSP in my seat received 64% of the vote in 2011 and I think not all of that share of the vote will be voting yes. I wish they would though.
“Even Panelbase, whose figures tend to be rather rosier for the Yes side”
A portent of John Curtice’s opinion of Panelbase, and his likely opinion of this poll IF he ever ventures to give one.
“A portent of John Curtice’s opinion of Panelbase, and his likely opinion of this poll IF he ever ventures to give one.”
Perhaps, but also unarguably factually correct. I think we need to be careful about only criticising people when they spin stuff, not when they just say things that are true but which could be SEEN as spin.
Ananuhing
Gets rid of the old wood. Talking of which,…..Aha! John Ruddy! isn’t he wooden. Gives furniture a bad name. I cnnot see him in the LFI splinter group.
There are quite a few hard core unionists that vote SNP tactically – they just hate Labour!
One of the best things about this poll may not be seen or felt in the pages of the media, but could none the less be very effective, and that is the effect that it will have in the ranks of the No mob, those at the top I mean.
It could help to divide them, it will certainly cause a few arguments between them and that could be very useful to us.
With Michael Kelly and Co calling for the eventual closure of the Scottish Parliament I can’t help but think they see it being dominated by SNP for years to come. With regard to the MSM commenting on the Poll the only hope of that is if they find something they can twist to suit their own bias agenda.
SS
As someone who was born in the 50s I agree that Scotland has re-emerged from the comfort blanket of Brig O Doon and become much more confident and much more identifiably Scotland. There were far more Union flags flying and on products in my youth than there are now.
EXCELLENT START Rev !!
Seasick Dave says: “If Scotland was currently an independent country, would you vote to surrender control of taxation, welfare, defence and oil revenues in order to join the Union? Yes: 18% Can you imagine any other country in the world doing that?”
.
…and possibly from some of those same unionists who have been known to cry out “No surrender” too. It’s a funny old world.!
Where’s Currywurst’s take on all this?
Come on CW, don’t be coy…
John Ruddy is from Devon isn’t he? They don’t like Grockles from Somerset and Cornwall. I used to live in Bath when I worked in England many years ago and am familiar with the local issues 🙂 John can choose to believe anything he likes including the moon is made of green cheese but a Panelbase Poll is no different from any other Poll so he better not start bigging up Polls that suggest Milliband might win either…that would be hypocrisy and surely John isn’t a hypocrit.
“It’ll be interesting if they don’t cover it.”
If this is as far as it goes, then they won’t cover it. The little theological nuances that interest saddos like us don’t make headlines – they’re not even interesting enough to be actively ignored.
So how many said they would vote Yes in 2014? That’s a headline, no matter what the answer is.
One of the best things about this poll may not be seen or felt in the pages of the media, but could none the less be very effective, and that is the effect that it will have in the ranks of the No mob, those at the top I mean. It could help to divide them, it will certainly cause a few arguments between them and that could be very useful to us.
Indeed. How rattled they are will be measureable by the tone of their voices, and the level of nonsense they shout.
It also gives the YES speakers very powerful ammunition, which, if used correctly, could be devastating.
“One of the best things about this poll may not be seen or felt in the pages of the media, but could none the less be very effective, and that is the effect that it will have in the ranks of the No mob, those at the top I mean. It could help to divide them, it will certainly cause a few arguments between them and that could be very useful to us.”
Wait until you see Release 2 😉
YASS!
In terms of the release of the data to the MSM, I’d suggest doing a press release of the results with a simple synopsis of the most noteworthy points in bullet points.
It’s basically embracing churnalism. If a paper gets a press release of anything vaguely interesting they can basically fill a few columns for next to no money. This is interesting, therefore they’ll print it.
If this is just a taster of the results, why would RT not be interested in the poll, as a follow up to the AS interview? I guess you’re very busy, but hope you’ll be contacting them Rev. They are pretty keen on citizen journalists, especially if they undermine the western Establishment.
Ooh, very good point. Now to find some contacts.
I’m hoping that Scurrilous Cybernat Push-Poll Massages Unsuspecting Survey Takers into Indy Majority.
In other words, after nudging people with these hypotheticals, the last question is the referendum question. I think perhaps that has been ruled out though, so I’ll not press the point 🙂
Ooh, very good point. Now to find some contacts.
link to twitter.com
Now that the word is out Rev it would be interesting to know if the site traffic grows much over next few days as you drip feed this out.
That will show if our friends in the BT Campaign are taking notice
My point was there is a certain faction in this country that that revels
in proclaiming they are “the people” and have a loathing for their country of birth or those who wish that country free.
Not offensive,not ill informed,fact.
Its not factual at all, its total and utter rubbish, the Peepul part I think you are confusing as many ill informed people do as you are putting a modern slant on it…
The Pomp and Ceremony crap at Ibrox stems from the NI link and general historic Scottish prejudice against Irish immigration and Catholicism.
Scottish nationalism has become a much bigger ‘bogeyman’ and people on both sides have bent the meaning of the songs and Flags to be anti Scottish Nationalist when its in fact bizarrely founded in anti Irishness/anti Catholicism … We are the Peepul stems from saying we’re not Irish nor are we Catholics…..Its not in itself pretty but its the facts. Where I was brought up , if you raised a union flag your windows would be smashed and not because I was from a Unionist family but because I was was making an anti Irish statement, British politics was never involved. I was brought up in the West of Glasgow. I’m 100% Scottish.
I do know a lot of my fellow Rangers fans are Unionists, quite a wedge of my friends are but the spread isn’t skewed to my mates who are fellow Rangers fans. I agree some of the young supporters now seem to have morphed the whole Anti Irish thing to pro London….you certainly hear the anti Salmond songs.
On the opposite side plenty of the big SPL clubs(snicker) fans see the UJ stuff as anti Independence. I can understand it and I would agree that to some extent its evolved to that but none of it is based on that at all.
I’m season ticket holder and SNP member…..and one of the Peepul ;o) I think people born in Glasgow to second or third generation born Scots who declare themselves Irish are pretty poor citizens, right up there with the 25% who would vote for the Union.
Taps foot, looks at watch……
Excellent stuff Stu. I don’t see why The Herald and STV wouldn’t give good coverage. Expect nothing from the Scotsman but the BBC might be ‘forced’ to cover it? I suggest you offer to appear and debate with BliarMac??? Time you got your face on the box?
As others have said, excellent. 🙂
And the news begins to spread…..
link to yesscotland.net
“And the news begins to spread…..”
You know what’s interesting, and disappointing? Seeing who HASN’T tweeted or covered the poll, on our own side. National Collective? Nope. Bella Caledonia? Not a dicky bird. Newsnet Scotland? Nowt. (In fairness to the latter, they did at least ask for the data tables.) Let alone all the bitter sorts who you’d expect to put their personal dislike of us above the good of the independence campaign. It’s been an eye-opener.
@naebd @Doug Daniel – needlessly quibbling over the validity of one of the main conclusions in the article? I think it is important to choose your words carefully and not say anything that is not strictly true or mislead people, something the Rev has been quite rightly hammering the MSM for. In my opinion some token powers may be devolved in the event of a no vote but nothing meaningful.
@Jamie Arriere – Why do you say I sound like currywurst instead of debating the content of my argument? It seems pointless and juvenile.
“Taps foot, looks at watch……”
Small hitch with batch 2 of the results. Just delayed slightly, hopefully have them out within the hour.
The suspense is killing us here Rev you little tease you
@revstu
From your twitter account I see you have found a Conservative in Scotland.
I note that your exciting example of the almost extinct species exhibits all of the typical features of the fauna in question: baldy head, batshit views, lapses into couthiness “sonny”, possessed of hopeless and embarrassing trash talk.
I particularly enjoyed his suggestion that you lack the wherewithall to rise to the heights of councillor in the paradise that is East Renfrewshire.
Such is the talent pool in this neck of the woods that is possible one day a council could benefit from the super dream team that is Terry Kelly, Gordon McCaskill and Alex Gallagher.
Early days Stu. Some folk are working. 😉
“Early days Stu. Some folk are working”
They’ve all found time to tweet other stuff.
There’s a massive mistake on Question 3!
Yes: 18%
No: 55%
Don’t Know: 28%
BUT THIS TOTALS UP TO 101%
I’m a Supporter of Yes Scotland but this really needs to be checked out and verified.
“BUT THIS TOTALS UP TO 101%”
As the disclaimer at the bottom of the feature notes, all figures are rounded to the nearest whole number and may not total exactly 100%.
What a top idea this whole thing was, well done.
In my opinion some token powers may be devolved in the event of a no vote but nothing meaningful.
Airgun licensing? Speed limits? Drink-drive alcohol limits? (Oh noes, you could be done for drunk driving if you drove over Carter Bar even if you were legal on the south side, DO NOT VOTE YES IT WILL BE A NIGHTMARE!!!)
Ah, that tweeting thing. Difficult to do whilst inside a machine, covered in oil. 🙂
Ah…Rev this is priceless!
“You know what’s interesting, and disappointing? Seeing who HASN’T tweeted or covered the poll, on our own side.”
Maybe they’re waiting until it is published in it’s entirety?
Give it time Stu. How long did it take you to write this article?
They’ve all found time to tweet other stuff.
I think some may worry for their own ratings/visits, this could have the potential to have a blockbuster outcome….really throwing the debate wide open if it catches any legs.
The whole idea that people organised it on their own and paid for it via crowdsourcing is pretty groundbreaking.
National collective tweeted about it. Betrayal partially rescinded.
“National collective tweeted about it. Betrayal partially rescinded.”
Not until it was posted on the Yes Scotland site in the last hour or so, which was what they linked to.
Any bites from the international press Rev? AP/Reuters/RT/WP/AJ etc.
Rev,
re ‘contacts’, one of the regulars offered – many many posts ago – a direct contact for Keiser/Herbert at RT’s Keiser Report. Forget who, but the details were definitely there – a friend of a friend etc.
Giving Bella/NC/NNS the benefit of the doubt, I’d hope it’s because they’re waiting for the full information to be disclosed, make it a big bombastic announcement with all the details. Not a great explanation, but it is something that concerns me somewhat.
Kenny Campbell says:
The whole idea that people organised it on their own and paid for it via crowdsourcing is pretty groundbreaking.
That alone will be causing consternation in certain places.
“This is a poll of the people, by the people, so to speak, so provided it is highlighted in that way, people will naturally be interested in the results. The fact that a group of random strangers got together to pay for it, is news in itself. This poll and the results have a unique selling point and that should be shouted from the rooftops.”
Exactly this. Even if the poll results themselves weren’t interesting and illuminating – which they are – the very fact this is people coming together to crowdsource a blog to commission a poll should be big news. It’s a real story. But then a country finally heading towards independence after so long fighting for it is also a big story and I can’t understand any journalist, especially one in that country, who doesn’t want to cover it as an exciting story.
People need time to get their heads around this stuff, whether they’re editors or ordinary punters. We’ve been watching this thing gestate, were forewarned about it’s arrival, but I daresay most of us are still grappling with the implications.
Patience.
Value for money indeed. That last question is very telling and a source of great hope. Well done, Stu.
“You know what’s interesting, and disappointing? Seeing who HASN’T tweeted or covered the poll, on our own side”
I’d have just thought that prudent as you haven’t released the whole thing yet.
“oh let us tell you all about this new poll, um we don’t know what it says”
“I’d have just thought that prudent as you haven’t released the whole thing yet.”
Why? If this was the whole poll, it’d be notable. So it’s still notable as part of one.
f5 key just fell off…
i am so convinced we will be an independent country with alex salmond and nicola sturgeon as our leaders. so convinced i almost bought a round last nite
Re the ‘Poll of the People’ angle, which is indeed interesting, it might, (i just say might) be useful to send news of this, when competed to Ian MacWhirter who has been known to put forth his own take on some things.
The whole idea that people organised it on their own and paid for it via crowdsourcing is pretty groundbreaking.
That alone will be causing consternation in certain places.
Oh dear, this democracy thing could turn out to be a bit problematic for the Establishment. How sad. 🙂
The trouble with painting a picture by numbers is that you dont see the whole picture till its done. Noone, myself included, wants to hurry out with comment when another part of the picture may contradict it.
Yes I have commented above but only on the likelyhood of us getting the wished for devolution of welfare without the money to pay for it.
The Rev’s take on the results are fascinating but for the rest I’ll wait for the cross tabs on the Panelbase website.
Doubt very much if NNS will pick it up. Can’t think of a single occasion on which they have acknowledged anything emanating from this site.
“Doubt very much if NNS will pick it up. Can’t think of a single occasion on which they have acknowledged anything emanating from this site.”
To be fair, they did with the Labour For Independence thing. It’s very rare that they acknowledge/link to other indy sites, but they did with that.
I am having a lousy day. New laptop and grief from BT that’s British telecom! (security issues!) Still the results are taking the edge off of my rage at these incompetent numpties.
a reassuring start, pretty much what I’ve been concluding from reading between the lines of other polling results. Well worth the wee donation, and an excellent work, pat on the back for the Rev for doing this. Big Smiley Face
Wooohooo, front page of reddit WorldNews, lets go Scotland lets go, upvote and share Yeeeesss!
link to reddit.com
@ Boorach,
I have linked a few things on NNS from Wings. They do often pick things up and put out a piece from a Newsnet reporter.
“Restlessnative says:
8 August, 2013 at 12:26 pm
“I cannot for the life of me work out how 25% of people, Scots, would want NO further powers or reduced powers for the Scottish Parliament”That’ll be the “PEEPUL” if you get my meaning.”
Yes we know who you mean Restless. If you knocked on these peoples’ door and actually told them to their face that life would get worse if they remained in the Union and physically showed them proof they would still trot to the local school and vote the same way as their “faithers”.
Hopefully due to the internet as previously mentioned, people are more informed as well as heartily sick of being derided. We will I hope see a majority of sensibility.
We already know things are set to get worse if it’s no. Why would anyone vote for that?
Let’s not get nippy with NNS or anyone else on ‘our’ side – they raised dosh to launch ‘Duggy Dug’ same as WoS raised the readies to commission this poll. It’s all good good stuff – what goes around comes around etc…
link to newsnetscotland.com
So far the poll hasn’t revealed anything that we didn’t already know, or could have guessed. The lack of reaction from National Collective, Bella etc. is because there doesn’t seem to be much of interest to react to. Earth not flat. Hold front page.
Having very meanly said that, this is a bold and creative initiative, Rev, but it needs to be developed. Let’s not seek support for our own views, but try to find out what people are thinking. That would be new. And I don’t give a Donald Duck if the MSM don’t report it. We are the folks who need to know and understand, it’s better if they continue to stumble around in the fog of their own farts. The hallmark of quality on your journalism is that the MSM don’t repeat it. Bravo!
Excellent work from WOS.
However,some people here need to wind in the necks.
All of us on the YES side of the campaign are working for independence and the last thing we need is sniping about who is covering what or not as the case may be.We have enough enemies without inventing more.
Meanwhile over at BBC Scotland, Scotland now at its highest population link to bbc.co.uk and their analysis says that the population is growing older, or should I say selective analysis. Both the average and median age have actually decreased by half a year according to my calculations. And we have higher birth rates in the last 5 years than the 5 years previous. Also every age from birth up to age 23 has seen an increase in the last year over and above those that were born here. BBC Scotland, always looking for the negatives.
“You know what’s interesting, and disappointing? Seeing who HASN’T tweeted or covered the poll, on our own side”
Obviously not wanting to steal your thunder.
Following the debate from afar, what I find fascinating is that this independence campaign seems to be rewriting all the rules of political engagement that we have known all our lives. The MSM and unionist parties are so used to the usual modus operandi, that they just cannot see that this campaign is a completely different animal, where people are engaged in a whole new way, combining social media and old style campaigning to win people’s hearts and minds. This crowdfunded poll is just another manifestation of this.
What’s great for us in Wales is that you are setting up a template to win an independence referendum that we can maybe follow when our turn comes in a few years time!
I wonder if someone could answer this question for me, in the event of a YES vote next year. Will the 2015 Westminster Elections still be contested in Scotland, presuming that the negotiations about the exact nature of an independent Scotland will be under way by then?
Cy mru Rydd
Hello and welcome.
I frankly do not know whether Scotland would participate in the 2015 UK elections following a 2014 Yes vote. Logically I would think that it would not and I would also think that would be based on a Holyrood vote and negotiations with Cameron and Clegg. This phase post 2014 would be Government to Government period of negotiations with a projected date for Independence of 2016 which, by a number of experts is quite within reality, assuming good faith on both sides.
What would be the point of having Scottish members in Westminster for about a year.
Cameron would be laughing out loud at that.
I would like to see a poll conducted using the following question:-
How do you intend to vote in the referendum on Scotland becoming an independent nation?
a) I am definitely voting ‘Yes’.
b) I am voting ‘Yes’ but could change my mind.
c) I am undecided but leaning towards voting ‘Yes’.
d) I am definitely voting ‘No’.
e) I am voting ‘No’ but could change my mind.
f) I am undecided but leaning towards voting ‘No’.
My apologies to NNS then, they undoubtedly do a good job overseeing the BBC, however, their censorship policy is abhorent.
Cy mru Rydd
Nobody knows really, but I don’t think Scotland’s participation would be in either Government’s interest so I suspect not. Just imagine if Scottish Labour MP’s held the balance of power, for example.
Boorach
It’d be a bit embarrassing for NNS if both they and the BBC failed to cover it!
Boorach and Albert Herring
I get the feeling that NNS is not a rapid attack dog site and, perhaps by way of some administrative mechanism take a little more time to craft and respond.
I would be astounded to find out that it was not covered and I think they will want to maintain their Doug the Dug scoop momentum.
Well said ‘beammeupscotty’, and others above regarding other pro independence websites.
There is no point whatsoever in knocking ANY pro independence website, just because it doesn’t adhere to YOUR notion of what such a site should be. There are now many such sites, and to its credit, Newsnet Scotland since it started has been a breath of fresh air – indeed, `I’d even argue, it was as much a sea change in independence coverage when ti started many years ago, as Wings has achieved recently. Prior to Newsnet Scotland, there was little in the way of regular independence news available, and it started quite some years before this site, from very humble beginnings. AND it is run by volunteers.
Different websites aim at different demographics. Not all people have the same approach, and so having a good mixture of representation of Scottish independence is good. This way as many types of people as possible can get the facts they want.
Nothing, and I really do mean NOTHING would make bitter together happier than division amongst independence supporters. Do not let some online posters fool you into thinking such things. We are ALL on the same side – the side of Scottish independence.
Vote YES in 2014, for a better future.
@ Bugger (the Panda)
About the 2015 GE, following a yes vote in the referendum. The current UK law says that Scotland is to be represented at Westminster by 59 MPs. Unless the UK and Scottish governments agree to ignore the law, which is unlikely, then for Scotland not to take part in the GE, Westminster will have to pass new legislation to provide an alternative arrangement. My guess is that they will be busy enough with other matters, including negotiations for Scottish independence, and so will take the easy way out and let the GE go ahead exactly as it would have without the referendum.
Given recent opinion polls, which suggest that Labour will lose quite a few seats in Scotland, I do not think that either government would be happy with one possible alternative, which would be to let current Scottish MPs remain in office until independence. Another possibility, having no Scottish MPs for the last year of Scotland’s membership of the UK, would prematurely break the Treaty of Union; in any case, surely Scotland must be represented in the UK Parliament as long as we are part of the UK.
The question about Scots MP’s taking part in the 2015 General Election to Westminster in the evnt of a Yes vote.
Of course they would take part – you can’t have 5 million people unrepresented in government even if it was only for 9 months or so. That would go against just about every single Human Right law in the world. Then again, we don’t have any rights in the UK not having any kind of written constitution. Thank god for Europe.
I would presume there would be a ceremonial leaving of Scots MP’s from Westminster on the day of independence – please let the BBC cover this in a live special presented by Dimbledore. The best bit would be seeing all the Lords being kicked out and given their P45’s – we could have a special live reporter inside the Westminster dole office waiting for all the duffers to walk in and sign on.
Sorry, drifting off into fantasy land here…
“I do know a lot of my fellow Rangers fans are Unionists”
Exactly the point I was trying to make,not a condemnation of all fans.
I’m talking of the corpulent fucks with 1690 tats and a pathological hatred of green pens.
You know,I know,they exist and will do anything to preserve their “culture”.
Again,I meant no offence. Hailsa.
@Robert Louis.
Never forget “divide and conquer” is the modus vivendi of the establishment.
Further some posters may be “agents provocateur”
Hail Alba
“Let’s not get nippy with NNS or anyone else on ‘our’ side”
My sentiments exactly Sir,let’s get this done.
110 bribed MPs to 18% of Scots voting to join the UK in 306 yrs. 51% in 2,820 yrs at that rate. The Dependants have their work cut out. All we have to do is convince Scots that the things they actually want happen to be called independence.
Good stuff and a great start. I believe the logical extension to this is to frame the next poll around (say)twenty listed things an independent Scotland could set about doing and ask those polled to rank their first five
I used to do PR. Not an awful lot to it when you have scorching content, which you do. Pick couple of main points, the ONLY 18% of Scots would vote to join the UK” is the obvious one. Quick news release, ideally with quotes from someone famous- emailed out to the SMSM. I would say dont release this all at once, drip, drip, drip, might be more effective. That way we/you can keep up the positive news for a longer period. Once its published on here – to the MSM it will age rapidly, then they wont consider it to be news.
@Braco
I would have never of heard of Wings Over Scotland if it wasn’t for the fact that I was an avid Your Sinclair/Digitiser reader.
Wow! Best value for money I’ve had in a long time. If you’re planning on voting no, confidently expecting increased powers, stuff like this is surely going to give you nightmares of waking up the day after a No vote, thinking NOOOO, WHAT HAVE I DONE??
Come the referendum, the only people with a pencil poised strongly over the No box are the people that truly don’t want more powers.
Do these results mean -when taken together with current surveyed voting intentions: “simply feart,” or “simply not bothered/not very interested” ? Or do they presage a possibe pro-independence landslide from those currently categorisd as “don’t knows” ?
( I like the ‘choose your top 5 ideas’ suggestion. The PR on the 18% was done yesterday I think. But on the ‘don’t call it independence’ finding – didn’t George Bush keep his ratings up by simply inserting the word ‘Freedom’ into every second sentence of all his speeches? Different people I guess, so best stick to policies lol)
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