Wings Over Scotland

One of the dumber things we see regularly posted on social media is that Yes voices should stop criticising the First Minister because her leadership is the only reason Yes is now consistently ahead in the polls and we would have no chance of winning a new referendum with someone else in charge.

This is obviously nonsense, because Nicola Sturgeon was SNP leader and FM for five years in which support moved barely a single millimetre, until COVID-19 came along. Our current lead is due entirely to a tiny invisible virus and a giant Etonian buffoon.

But you know us, readers – we like to check.

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The BBC ran a completely insane story this week about a transman (ie a mentally ill woman) who almost died of kidney failure because she didn’t tell her doctors what sex she really was. The standout paragraph was probably the one pictured below, in which the atom-brained narcissist imbecile explained to a startled nation that apparently having a mental disorder also changes your physical biology:

(Also, y’know, “cute and awesome!” is definitely how men talk.)

But anyway. When we commission opinion polls, we’ve often noted that in any given poll you can expect around 5-10% of respondents to vote for even the most seemingly ridiculous options – either as a “joke”, or because they’re too dim to have understood the question, or whatever.

And last week we thought we’d put that to the test.

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Two opinion polls, just over one Parliamentary term apart:

MAY 2014

JULY 2020

That is not a politically healthy country, readers.

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The Huffington Post published a poll today, to the great delight of the likes of Stonewall Scotland, which seemed to fly in the face of every previous one on the idea of gender self-identification, a policy which appears to have been dumped by the UK government but is still very much in favour with the Scottish one.

That the poll had been commissioned by trans uber-fundamentalist website Pink News immediately set off alarm bells, especially as the site had previously asked a similar question, found dramatically different results and swiftly disappeared them.

As ever, Wings went looking for the truth.

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Our most extra-specially alert readers may have recently noticed the website of some dodgy chancer claiming that a recent opinion poll by Survation showed high support for a pro-independence list party led by Alex Salmond.

Unfortunately, no such poll existed. The site owner blanked every request to back up his assertion with a link to the supposed survey, and it rapidly became clear that it was a totally fabricated piece of attention-seeking which we won’t indulge with a link.

But it seemed worth asking the question for real.

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Holiday Boy is on holiday again. But this week we stumbled across a genuine piece of artwork that might explain a lot about the way Unionists think.

Happy Someone Else’s Independence Day, readers.

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We were rummaging around semi-aimlessly in the vaults last night, readers, and we were rather startled to come across this:

Shows what YOU lot know, eh?

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The ramifications for Scottish politics of the failed stitch-up of Alex Salmond over false allegations of sexual abuse have hardly begun to be felt. The Parliamentary inquiry into the affair, which formally began yesterday and is due to start interviewing people in August, looks set to be swamped in material – or at least, whatever material hasn’t been quietly and conveniently disposed of already – and nobody knows how long it’ll take to reach any sort of conclusion.

It seems a safe bet that the SNP leadership will be praying it doesn’t do so before the 2021 Holyrood election, for all sorts of reasons – not least that it appears beyond any credible doubt that Nicola Sturgeon lied to Parliament about the investigation.

But while Salmond was found innocent on every charge, he continues to be attacked from behind a shield of anonymity by the accusers that the mainly-female jury declined to believe, supported and co-ordinated by organisations funded almost entirely by the Scottish Government and with very close personal links to it.

So when we were putting out our latest Panelbase poll, we thought we’d find out what the people of Scotland thought about it.

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On the face of it, this finding from our latest Panelbase poll isn’t very surprising:

But then again, maybe it is.

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So, the good news today is that independence polling is finally back to where it was almost exactly four years ago – 26 June 2016, to be precise. Although we couldn’t help notice that The National’s front-page splash on the latest (re)surge was taking second billing in its readership stats to a day-old story about the First Minister’s haircut.

Now, as we noted earlier this month, that might just be down to people getting weary of false dawns. But it might also indicate that a measure of realism is belatedly beginning to dawn on the Yes movement about the lack of connection between nice poll numbers and actually securing another referendum.

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We had a little mini-poll out with Panelbase this week, readers. Given that the SNP are currently still insisting that they need ANOTHER mandate at the ballot box to secure a second independence referendum (by our count that would be the tenth), we thought we’d see how many people believed this cunning plan would work.

The results, we suspect, will not amaze you.

Scottish voters, it turns out, aren’t completely stupid.

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Some in the independence movement got quite excited yesterday about a widely-reported poll showing that 63% of Scots want a new indyref in the next five years. It reminded us that we’d had a question on the subject in our own Panelbase poll earlier this month that we hadn’t got around to talking about.

Because of what we wanted to find out, that question was asked in a slightly strange way, so let’s quickly explain.

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