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Scotland’s first choices

Posted on April 12, 2019 by

We’ve still got a few of the results from our last Panelbase poll (conducted last month) to round up, and this one seems pertinent this week:

As has been the case ever since we started asking this question about the nation’s twin constitutional dilemmas back in July 2015, the single most popular option in a four-way choice remains an independent Scotland inside the EU, which leads the impending reality (a UK Scotland outside the EU) by a clear 10 points.

Scotland isn’t merely about to get something it doesn’t want, it’s about to get the exact opposite of the thing it wants most. But oh boy, is it ever more complicated than that.

Those headline numbers have barely changed in four years, with one exception. We asked the question in 2015, 2016 (in September, after the EU referendum), 2017 and 2019, and the figures for each option have been these:

INDY+EU: 32, 32, 31, 32
UK+EU: 31, 28, 26, 30
UK+BREXIT: 15, 24, 27, 22
INDY+BREXIT: 11, 11, 10, 8

We’re not sure we can explain the leap in support for the “UK plus Brexit” option since the EU referendum, other than on democracy grounds. There’s been absolutely no increase in support for Brexit in Scotland – most polls show the opposite – so we can only reasonably assume that it’s a reflection of people thinking the referendum result should be enacted even though they don’t like it, because there’s been no actual material change or political mandate to contradict it.

(Both main UK parties campaigned in the 2017 election on a promise to carry out Brexit and got around 85% of the vote between them. The situation is entirely different to that with Scottish independence, where a party pledging a second referendum won an election and where the Parliament passed a motion upholding that pledge by a clear majority.)

Meanwhile what we might perhaps call the “extreme independence” faction, which wants a divorce from both London and Brussels, has reached its lowest ebb, dropping by almost a third since 2015 and 2016.

Interestingly, the gender gap which people used to blame on the personality of Alex Salmond has made a notable return:

Despite the gender-balanced cabinets of Nicola Sturgeon and the work of much-lauded groups like Women For Independence, the women of Scotland now prefer the status quo option by 31-28, whereas men favour independence by 35-29, a significant nine-point margin between the sexes.

The generation gap, though, is considerably more dramatic.

By an ENORMOUS gulf, Scotland’s youngest voters, the 16-34 age group, want to live in an independent EU member state. Indeed, if we exclude Don’t Knows then they’re an absolute majority (53%) even in a four-way question, with young people extremely against either variant of Brexit.

The middle age group slightly prefers the current status quo (which is due to come to an end by this October) to independence in Europe, while the elderly would actually choose Brexit with the UK, with the status quo as their second preference and independence a distant third. Scotland’s grandparents, parents and children are now all at war with each other.

Within those age groups, however, the gender gap looms large again. For 16-34s, men prefer indy+EU by a colossal margin of 32 points over any other option (54% versus 22% favouring the status quo), but for young women it’s just 13 points (43-30).

For over-55 men the numbers are fairly tight – the status quo leads by just three points over UK+Brexit and another five points over indy+EU (33-30-25). It’s Scotland’s old women who favour Brexit, with a clear eight-point lead over UK+EU, and another 10 points over indy+EU (36-28-18).

The nation is divided by social class too:

Scotland’s wealthier ihnabitants prefer the status quo, unsurprisingly (given that it’s made them wealthy), but more interestingly they prefer independence in the EU to Brexit by some distance. The poor, meanwhile, back independence by a whopping 13 points, with a UK Brexit in second place marginally ahead of the status quo, and are the only demographic other than young voters where the combined independence options outscore the combined UK options (45 to 43).

And we may as well also do it by party allegiance:

The most interesting thing there is that both Labour voters (by a huge margin) and Lib Dem voters (by the smallest margin possible) prefer independence to Brexit, with more than a quarter of 2017 Labour voters having indy as their first choice.

In total, a thumping 38% of Labour voters want some sort of Scottish independence as their ideal choice, which (a) makes the Scottish party’s fanatical resistance to it even more politically idiotic, and (b) does rather cause one to wonder what on Earth those people were thinking by voting Labour regardless of that resistance.

And screw it, let’s get the football in there too.

Celtic and smaller clubs’ fans both go for indy with the status quo in second place (but with dramatically different numbers – Celtic fans are a huge 60% for some form of indy compared to just 39% of the smaller-club supporters), New Rangers fans are a dead heat but also with much higher Brexit backing, and football-haters want the status quo with Brexit as their next-best option.

So let’s just recap those first preferences:

ALL SCOTS: Independence in the EU
MEN: Independence in the EU
WOMEN: UK in the EU
YOUNG PEOPLE: Independence in the EU
MIDDLE-AGED PEOPLE: UK in the EU
OLD PEOPLE: UK Brexit
WEALTHY PEOPLE: UK in the EU
POOR PEOPLE: Independence in the EU
YOUNG MEN: Independence in the EU
MIDDLE-AGED MEN: UK in the EU
OLD MEN: UK in the EU
YOUNG WOMEN: Independence in the EU
MIDDLE-AGED WOMEN: UK in the EU
OLD WOMEN: UK Brexit
SNP VOTERS: Independence in the EU
LABOUR VOTERS: UK in the EU
LIB DEM VOTERS: UK in the EU
TORY VOTERS: UK Brexit
CELTIC FANS: Independence in the EU
“RANGERS” FANS: Independence/UK in the EU
SMALLER CLUB FANS: Independence in the EU
NON-FOOTBALL FANS: UK in the EU

Well, that’s a mess, isn’t it? Nine each for independence in the EU (for which there’s no power to hold a vote) and UK in the EU (for which there’s no democratic mandate), three for a UK Brexit (the thing that’s actually currently going to happen) and one tie.

We’re tired, folks. Who’s up for just agreeing to toss a coin for it and then never talk about any of this ever again?

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    187 to “Scotland’s first choices”

    1. Patsy Millar says:

      I know exactly where you’re coming from with your last paragraph but if you give up on us Stu, I think ‘we’re doomed’ to quote one Scot!

    2. Ella says:

      Can I just say as a soon to be 57 year old woman, (Who are you calling old?) I definitely favour Independence and EU membership!

    3. Alan says:

      And that’s why FPTP doesn’t work.

      We need to find out the second preferences of that “UK in the EU” group.

    4. robbo says:

      Well maybe we should just state it as it is when naming political party’s.

      Farage has formed his party- BREXIT party- says what means -end of story.

      Maybe SNP should rename to SIP(Scotland’s Independence Party) Slogan- Scotland for Independence 1st and foremost.

      When you vote, your voting for independence first and foremost. End of story, no ifs no buts.

    5. jason arneil says:

      Hi,

      “Scotland isn’t merely about to get something it doesn’t want, it’s about to get the exact opposite of the thing it wants most.”

      Not true, the thing it least wants is independent Scotland outside the EU. That is *not* what we are about to get.

    6. Nigel says:

      Here’s a coin – oh, dropped it…
      Under the desk somewhere.

      Interesting, nay, fascinating analysis there, though, as tiresome as the whole thing may be at the mo, it’s useful data for Yes campaigners. Thank you!

    7. Dr Jim says:

      I suppose everybody wants everything which is a reflection of what’s going on in the HOC right now

      The difference is punters don’t get that amount of multiple choices to dither over when it comes to a referendum, because that choice is more like *would you like your head bitten off by a Tiger a Lion or would you like Independence

      Although I bet there are some who would pause for thought over the animal selection choice

    8. Ian Brotherhood says:

      Heads!

      😉

    9. Ahundredthidiot says:

      who dares wins

      time to call indyref2

    10. Jamero66 says:

      This is depressing reading, when undecided are removed from Q13 then:

      57% want to stay in the UK
      43% want an Independent Scotland.

      Is that correct??

    11. Derick fae Yell says:

      There’s a missing question

      Independent Scotland outside the EU and outside the single market

      Independent Scotland outside the EU and in the single market (or EFTA-EEA).

      If I’d answered Q13 as set I’d be in the 15% SNP members who don’t want to be in the EU. But I’d be lumped in with the tiny fraction who want Caesar!nia in the Heather

    12. Derick fae Yell says:

      Bloody typos

    13. Mogabee says:

      We’ve always known that Scots are thrawn and this just reiterates the contradiction.

      Going to be obvious fairly soon that we have a ‘choice’ of indy or fucked with UK. Hellish…

    14. Foonurt says:

      Wae jist huv tae fin oot, hoo tae lee awe wurr young yins staunin.

      Free pass-oots, fur thae aull yins.

      Scoattish Independence, ah daudull.

    15. How can you be in the e.u. Being told what to do and laws being passed on you and be liable to be out voted by 27 to 1 and call that independence ???

    16. Fraser McLaren says:

      There are 9 groups for ‘In the UK and in the EU’ It would be interesting to know these groups 2nd Preferences.
      It demonstrates the dangers of calling IndyRef2 for the sake of calling it. IndyRef2 needs to be called when we can win it.
      The 45% will vote YES again. ‘Old Women’ and ‘Tories’ in the main will always vote NO.
      Its the 9 groups for ‘in the UK and in the EU’ which will determine the outcome of the next IndyRef. The best time to hold IndyRef2 is when ‘in the the UK and in the EU’ is definitely no longer possible…or when lots of Old Women die and are replaced by more indy supporting 16-24 year olds.
      Everything will be clearer in the next 6 months – we’ve been waiting 300 years….is another 6 months so long?

    17. Socrates MacSporran says:

      Rev Stuart

      I fear you may have been too-long in the Scottish Missionary Service in the far Souh-West of England.

      From reading your twitter feed, it appears you are advocating the use of a chibb as a means of ridding oneself of aa troublesome grand-mother.

      Surely every Scot knows, although the practice is frowned upon – indeed we are always told: “Ye cannae dae that;” the time-honourd way to be rid of a troublesome grandmother is to shove her off a bus.

    18. liz says:

      Those who presently opt for in the UK and in the EU are going to have to make their minds up which one they would rather have assuming the gov is still intent on getting us all out. The older/wealthier you are the less you want change which is why these groups rank high in the status quo option. Women also sadly tend to dislike change and will opt for the choice closest to the status quo. Big decisions to be made by these people when we know where the UK is going. Would be good to know second preferences for those in the status quo option.

    19. Leigh Cassidy says:

      It would be interesting to correlate by use of social media as I suspect that older people are least likely to use it for anything other than pics of the grandkids

    20. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “Not true, the thing it least wants is independent Scotland outside the EU. That is *not* what we are about to get”

      No, that’s not how language works. There are two binary variables here – independence and EU membership. Scotland’s first preference is both. It’s going to get neither. That’s the opposite of getting both.

    21. Corrado Mella says:

      Older women supporting Brexshit is also skewing the demographic of all older folks supporting Brexshit.

      Women – especially in Scotland – outlive men by 2 to 1.

      Most older women are also drawn to be selfish – because they’re the remaining survivors in the couple – thus of a Tory bent.

      Now, if their grandchildren could prod them to rethink. we may turn a corner.

    22. Proud Cybernat says:

      Bugger! Coin landed on its bloody edge!!

    23. Jimmock says:

      Agree with Robbo “when you vote you’re voting for independence”

      This should be shouted loud and clear at every election. If you vote for us you are in favour of

      independence. If you are opposed to independence vote for someone else. This would force

      voters to come off their fences and make a choice.

    24. Sharny Dubs says:

      Heads we win, tails they loose! ?

      But seriously folks, May is playing a blinder. Westminster behaving like the rogue state it is fast becoming. Like North Korea threatening to bring the whole neighborhood down with it, they don’t give a shit about making preparations for what happens next, they leave everyone else to tie themselves in knots. EU, Ireland, us, Labour et all, while they wait to step in and pick up the pieces.
      We need out!! Brexit is Brexit, against our will, time to call it!!

    25. Labour now stand for banning Freedom of Movement, when Scotland cannot survive with out inward migration.
      I demand that Leonard, Rowley, Findlay, Lamont, Gray, Sarwar and the rest of the Branch Office defy Corbyn and McDonnell who are sitting down with their Blue Tory pals and dragging Scotland out of Europe against our express wishes at the last SGE.
      Do the thousands of Young Scots who got caught up in the Corbynmania hysteria now believe that the Islington gardener has ‘international’ Socialist credentials.
      We cannot hang around any longer; I am 71, and have never felt so vibrantly ‘young’ politically in my whole life.
      Sturgeon must come off the fence now; we are done trying to save England from self harm.
      Independence is our only option.

    26. Liz g says:

      We’ve Mibbi gone as far as we can persuading our elderly folk?
      They’ve always tended to vote,and if they haven’t changed by now,very few probably will!
      Mibbi, we should concentrate on our natural majority of the young.
      Campaign towards them,get them registered, and get them out to vote.
      I wonder if the numbers would support such a campaign?
      Could the young out vote the elderly?

    27. Tony Hay says:

      Pretty depressing stuff, so time to redouble our efforts. No one thought this was going to be easy and it wont be so we go on.

    28. GrahamB says:

      O/T
      Posted this on the previous thread:

      A lot of people on here getting excited about SNP + Green showing in yesterday’s by-election but can I advise some caution – the Greens are not all Indy supporters!
      At the 2014 referendum Robin Harper, past Green leader, promoted Greens for NO. The leader of the Greens on Glasgow City Council, Martin Bartos, is a staunch unionist and at the 2017 council election count it was noticeable that SNP voting papers had Green as their next preference whereas the Greens mainly had Labour as their next preference. In this year’s GCC budget debate they voted with Labour against SNP (it only passed because the Tories abstained). I suspect in Glasgow they are mainly the old ‘champagne socialists’.
      Last night, going round doors (yes, some of us are still very active rather than sitting at our keyboards) I encountered a Green voter who voted NO in 2014 and would still do so in indyref2!
      So please be wary and don’t assume the Greens are all on our side.

    29. Sinky says:

      Good analysis of Leith Walk Edinburgh Council by election result from Scot Goes Pop.

      https://scotgoespop.blogspot.com/2019/04/its-another-bonzer-by-election.html

      “The swings speak for themselves – there was a swing of more than 4% from Labour to SNP, and of roughly 2.5% from Conservative to SNP. The Tories must be particularly disappointed, because it’s not all that common for them to go backwards in local by-elections.”

    30. Robert J. Sutherland says:

      Alan @ 12:37,

      Absolutely. Where is that substantial chunk of the voting public going to turn when they lose their first preference, as they are assuredly going to do?

      Even better, instead of waiting passsively to find out, getting their heads out of the sand and soundly on board through proactive leadership and serious campaigning from now on.

    31. robbo says:

      GrahamB says:
      12 April, 2019 at 1:45 pm
      O/T
      Posted this on the previous thread:

      Yup- all after there own agenda

      That’s why I trust no-twat. Vote SIP(Scotland Independence Party)for independence 1st and foremost.

    32. Ken500 says:

      Why would people who support Independence vote Unionist. They are just cutting off their nose to spite their face. No unionist Party supports Independence. Why would they vote for them. Just plain weird. No fool like an old fool.

      Mind there are still enough folk who never vote to support Independence 30%. Plenty to decide.

    33. Jockanese Wind Talker says:

      Couple of thoughts:

      On coin tosses:

      Tails never fails.

      On the older demographic (and I know there are a lot of Indy Supporters & Wingers who fall into it and probably weren’t polled):

      Minimum commitment of making an Indy Scotland’s State Pension the same as the EU Average State Pension.

      For example the maximum weekly UK state pension is £141

      However the weekly state pension is:

      £507 in Germany,

      £304 in France,

      and £513 in Spain.

      So an average weekly pension of just UK, Germany, Spain and France would be £366.

      Or an increase of £225 per week (a rise of 159%).

      Surely a vote winner.

    34. Ken500 says:

      That’s why polls are nonsense. Especially in a tight margin. The Polls are manipulated to influence the vote. Gerrymandering. Breaking every Electoral Law regarding funding and personal data. Make some multimillionaires more wealthy. Including some academics. Fund managers funding Brexit, then the stock market being manipulated. Totally illegal.

    35. Sharny Dubs says:

      We need some clarity and leadership here!!

      Fars Cactus when we need him??

    36. Robert J. Sutherland says:

      Liz g @ 13:39,

      I’ve said this before, but the most productive tack I believe we can take with the “unreconstructed” elderly is not to try to convince them of a change of view (other than saying that their backward-looking view isn’t going to be available from anyone), but rather to use the young, including those too young to vote, in a campaign to ask the elderly to bequeath them the future they desire rather than saddle them with problems they don’t want. Appeal to the wish of the elderly to be remembered well in a future they won’t themselves see.

      “Our future – our inheritance – your legacy”.

    37. Capella says:

      I think it reflects where people get their information from. Older people, especially women, get it from TV, specifically the BBC. They also read the Mail and Express.

      Young people go online. And so do some of the more enlightened older people. 🙂

      Opinion forming is hard outside the mainstream but it is happening.

    38. Derick fae Yell says:

      Liz g says:
      12 April, 2019 at 1:39 pm
      “Could the young out vote the elderly?”

      Yes. Or rather the young replace the elderly. All major social change happens that way.

      Politics is the froth on the waves. Demographics is the sea coming in inexorably below.

      50,000 come of age every year. 50,000 drop off at the other end. Net change 100,000 a year.

      The Scottish electorate is 4,105,800. If everyone registered the turnover in the electorate would be 2.4% a year

      I did work out that the age split is putting about 0.7% a year on Independence support. We are right on that trajectory since 2014

      Natural parity around 2021 with an increasing majority thereafter.

      The complicating factor is in-migration from the rest of the UK which is insanely difficult to model. Generally older, more ‘British’, nailed on No voters. Anecdotally Brexit is attracting a different crowd to Scotland.

      The change in support for a Scottish Parliament between 1979s 52% Yes and 1997s 74% Yes (Q1) was right on the demographic trend over the 18 years

      Later is better.

      I personally know 3 x 2014 No to current Yes, all because of Brexit. Of the older people I personally know who voted No none have changed their minds, but 3 are no longer here to vote. And I know 3 young people who are nailed on Yes voters.

      People misrepresent the demographic point as celebrating death. It isn’t. It’s just natural change.

      Keep normalising independence for the young. GET THEM REGISTERED TO VOTE

    39. DerekM says:

      Said it years ago the only way to get the baby boomers to vote your way is to bribe them.

      The Scottish government,SNP,green, yes movement and grass roots activists for indy should have had a big shiny bribe for them oh along the lines of you know your UK pension well we will double it.
      Who cares about the costings the tories and labour never bother their arse when they pull a bribe out for the dafties.

    40. Sharny Dubs says:

      Perhaps we should encourage the young eans tae collar their grandma and da, “hey it’s my future, do it for me” ?

    41. Capella says:

      @ DerekM – no need to denigrate fair pensions as a “bribe”. Most of us have paid into NI all our working lives and the least Westminster could do (for it is a reserved matter) is pay a fair return. But no. They squander the money then tell us “the country can’t afford it”.

      If the country can afford Trident missiles, billions of bank bailouts and more billions of BREXIT damage limitation it can afford fair pensions.

    42. Jockanese Wind Talker says:

      See my comment at 2:06 pm regarding Pension Bribe/Voting Incentive @DerekM says at 2:14 pm

      “Who cares about the costings” well most folk who believe in telling the truth and running an Ethical Campaign I’d imagine

      Costing is easy though:

      iScotland can use the tax it currently doesn’t get (you know the Ex-Regio stuff like Oil and Gas and the other 80ish% that Westminster won’t devolve like VAT).

      Also as the ‘Battery of the UK’ iScotland can sell electricity and potable water to England, NI, Wales for the going rate rather than being charged for the privilege of doing so as at present.

      Simple really.

    43. robbo says:

      DerekM says:
      12 April, 2019 at 2:14 pm
      Said it years ago

      Yup . Where does the money come from for pensions and other stuff. Well just borrow it, invest some and distribute rest. Didn’t seem to matter to the Labour or Tory mob over the years as we’re nearly 2 Trillion in National debt and we have shit pensions unless your a big Union boss, a former director of a busted company or born with a silver spoon in your mouth.

      So who gives a toss. It’s only paper.

    44. Street Andrew says:

      “The most interesting thing there is that both Labour voters ….”

      Hmmm….I’d say the most interesting revelation across party lines is the number (12% !!)who will happily stay in the UK (and EU)

      I can only assume that they mean they would prefer to be in both than out of both. (?) That tallies with the false, compromise proposition people voted for in 2014. Are these people asleep and haven’t noticed the real options have changed ?

    45. geeo says:

      Blair Paterson says:

      12 April, 2019 at 1:14 pm

      How can you be in the e.u. Being told what to do and laws being passed on you and be liable to be out voted by 27 to 1 and call that independence ???
      …….

      It is almost like you are deliberately and wilfully ignoring the literally hundreds of times where multiple people have utterly debunked this moronic chuntering…!!

      Malta, population under half a million, had the power to veto the latest extension the other day.

      If they had vetoed it, the Uk would have suffering a cliff edge crash out in just over 8 hours from now and 65 million lives would be in imminent danger of devastating consequences.

      As EU partners post indy, SCOTLAND enjoys such power.

      Thats a lot more than what we have now.

    46. DerekM says:

      @ Capella

      Since i get a pension i am quite aware of how rubbish it is but then i am highly politically active these people are not they only see the headlines.

      OAP`S TO GET DOUBLE THEIR UK PENSIONS IN AN INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND.

      See its easy i used to work for Labour you know lol

    47. Fraser McLaren says:

      Jockanese Wind Talker – 2.00pm

      Agree 100% that a commitment to moving towards EU Average Pension should be included as a firm promise at the next Indy Ref.
      Just as important should be a commitment to WASPI women (and men), to honor original Retirement dates and to cap future retirement age at 65.

    48. Robert J. Sutherland says:

      Derick fae Yell @ 14:12,

      I don’t agree with your usual EEA/EFTA bollocks, which is becoming increasingly apparent as appealing to no-one. And a reliance on demography rather than the “froth” (?) of conviction seems essentially defeatist to me. (Though Einstein would agree with you there, if about physics at least rather than politics.)

      However, you are dead correct in saying it’s crucially important for the young to get themselves registered. And even more crucially, for everyone to then get out and vote when the time comes.

      For all RISE’s self-promotion over voter registration back in 2014, in the event the turnout in their main turf of Glasgow was extremely disappointing. We need to do far better.

      There have been encouraging signs of increased voter participation by the young in the US, a democracy with traditionally-low turnouts, so hopefully the same will happen here. After all, the stakes couldn’t be higher.

    49. Street Andrew says:

      Blair Paterson says: [And I find this an odd attitude, though not uncommon as bit of unionist propaganda ‘logic’ which has little foundation in reality]

      “How can you be in the e.u. Being told what to do and laws being passed on you and be liable to be out voted by 27 to 1 and call that independence ???”

      If Scotland is outvoted on an issue by 27-1 don’t you think we might need to consider why ? Maybe we’d be making a bad decision (?) I think it highly unlikely Scotland would be that far away from European consensus on any issue.

      In the UK we are out-voted frequently and can do nowt about it on issues we are right about and Westminster is palpably wrong-headed.

    50. Gmere says:

      I know two blokes, gave up on trying to convert them years ago. One now 43 and the other 55 who voted for both Brexit and No but who are now intending to vote YES in an indyref2. Why? Well apparently Jerry (43) started to watch the live debates in the HOC during this Brexit farce (when he had never bothered before) and came to realise Scotland actually had no power or voice in it what so ever and found watching it ‘humiliating’. (UK government doing the job of us 😀 ). He also came to understand too late, via google searches in his own time, what Brexit would do to the Scottish economy.

      Kev, 55 apparently fell out of love with the UK when he realised his grandson didn’t know who Lord Thomas Cochrane was, or for that matter general knew zip about Scottish history or culture. He is now part of that NO EU or UK demographic. Strange reason but there you go.

      In one case all it took was someone to actually watch the mother of all parliaments in action. The other was a ‘Proudscotbut (TM)’ that had some sort of cultural awakening I guess?

      Not sure what I’m trying to say, maybe just continue to covert and convince those you can, but hold out hope for those you think beyond reasoning? Sometimes life just umm.. eh.. ah…umm… finds a way.

    51. ross says:

      It’s not that difficult to understand the increase in support for

      Union and Brexit. And it’s little to do with democracy.

      It’s people that voted No and think independence is even worse than Brexit (which they don’t like either).

      When confronted with a straight choice, they plump for the Union. They seem themselves as pragmatists.

    52. Donald anderson says:

      Farage is now getting unlimited air time for his new party.

    53. DerekM says:

      Ethical we tried that and anyway what is wrong with a political movement having a solid pledge or promise to the people especially one that has yet to let them down.

      And plus shhhh you and i both know if we go into the EU independent then we will need to raise them by about 50% anyway.

      We can argue and debate as much as we like they do not hear us so we have to get their attention and trust me they like the shiny shiny ,its how Thatcher got them to sell us all out.

    54. Gmere says:

      @ Donald anderson

      Business as usual then.

    55. yesindyref2 says:

      We’re tired, folks. Who’s up for just agreeing to toss a coin for it and then never talk about any of this ever again?

      I think a lot of us are tired. We do a lot of analysis to try to see what will happen in Indy Ref 2. But there is another way.

      Hold the fucking thing.

      Then we’ll know how it all translates into reality. At worst it’s a whole load of data and analysis to be done for next time.

      At best, who gives a shit, we’ll all be partying like it’s going out of fashion 🙂

    56. Dr Jim says:

      The voting system has always been won by the party who can terrorise the older voter the most about the horrors the other party will heap upon them, it’s how they won the 2014 referendum as well and not just the introduction of *The Vow*

      Hope works for the young, the elderly have no hope, only fear and cynicism so they’re low hanging fruit for the use of it
      It’s a miserable tactic but well proven and used at every election and we should know because that’s what they throw at the SNP every time

      Get your slogans out and polish them up, liken your opponents to Nazis, make *separatism* a ghastly sounding thing to be feared, talk about *The Economy crashing*!!, Gordon Browns favourite lie *No more blood transfusions* in other words the nasty nationalists are planning to kill you off, deride any economic plans as *ludicrous* the rest of the world will *veto* you because your bad and they don’t want you, and Bazinga job done

      Look at what that slime Farage did, they fell for it though and the trouble is they don’t learn because these people employ the same tactic over and over again and it keeps working, and I’m sorry to say my age group the elderly are also stupid they’re mostly simple minded nitwits who can barely focus their eyes let alone what’s left of any brains they might have had

      We’re stuck with yesterdays generation of the old who won’t lovey dovey into voting for us because of the cynicism of UK politics in which they don’t trust or believe but it’s better than trusting new versions of the same thing (In their minds)

      So what are we left with, well being gentle and kind and communicative didn’t work the last time so Scare the old buggers shitless with tactics they’re used to, what can it hurt, in the end they’ll be better off and so will everybody else

      I woudn’t make a good politician because I’d look at the average life span after retirement and chop off their right to vote within five years of it, me included, we’re a financial burdon on the state anyway so why should we decide the future of the folk who pay to keep us alive in it

      Brutal eh, of course no political party would ever do it

    57. HandandShrimp says:

      It is almost as if the sheer number if options has fractured the drive for purpose and direction. Something afflicting Westminster as much as the voters.

      I think the next month or so is going to be pivotal to everything, Indy, Brexit, political affiliations…the lot. That said. The latter may be less volatile in Scotland than the rest of the UK but imagine being in a UK with what may come to pass.

    58. Derick fae Yell says:

      Robert J. Sutherland says:
      12 April, 2019 at 2:49 pm

      Derick fae Yell @ 14:12,

      I don’t agree with your usual EEA/EFTA bollocks, which is becoming increasingly apparent as appealing to no-one. And a reliance on demography rather than the “froth” (?) of conviction seems essentially defeatist ”

      LOL. That was almost polite for you. Are you no weel?

      Once you finally admit that there’s no magical way to stay a member of an organisation we are not a member of, and that the EU option is ‘join’ then the alternative and massively faster way into the EEA will come into play.

      Considering the demographics (or strictly actuarial) angle is FAR from defeatist. Independence is inevitable. It’s not as fast as we’d all like, but it’s VERY low geared.

      We have a housing crisis for the sole reason that household sizes continue to fall, so we need more houses for the same population.

      Crime rates have fallen because the population cohort that commits most crime is smaller

      Smoking rates have fallen by 2/3 since the 70s because smokers simply aren’t around to smoke

      Population change is immensely powerful

      For a political project like independence we need campaigning to keep normalising it when people form their political views in their teens. That’s exactly what happened between 1979 and 1997.

    59. Petra says:

      “It’s Scotland’s old women that favour Brexit.”

      Research findings show that the NHS is of FAR greater importance than pensions, for the elderly in particular. WAY ahead in fact. It might make sense to get the “news” out there and that is that Westminster, especially the Tories, are absolutely determined to privatise the NHS in totality and of course the US and Trump will factor in this. Additionally if Barnett exists, following Brexit, the more that they privatise down south the less money will be coming our way. Add to that too, that people fleeing from England, more so than currently, to ensure that they get a superior SNHS / Home Care service will create even more challenges for Holyrood. I’m hoping Stu that your “wee book” will be focusing on the future of our SNHS. If so, surely that would / could make a massive difference?

    60. DerekM says:

      @ Dr Jim

      Exactly!

      It is only a lie if you fail to act on your promise so lets promise my auld duffer eejit generation some shiny and tell them the tories are going to slash their pensions and put 20 pence on mark and spencers scones.

    61. yesindyref2 says:

      For the +60 generation, buses, bus stops and coffee shops, plus perhaps tour buses.

      How, don’t ask me. Encourage the kids, grandkids to wear YES badges when going for a visit, and happen to have the odd leaflet.

    62. Dr Jim says:

      All this chat’s mostly academic now because the FM is about to fire the starting gun, have you noticed the papers, it’s on and they’re gearing up for it

    63. Maria F says:

      For sure, the most interesting thing will be to find out what will the choice of those who for now want to remain in both unions be when such option is not longer available, and this decision they will have to make sooner rather than later.

      The Rev has very smartly put in front of us the reason why indyref must not happen just yet. Call it denial or wishful thinking, but there are still far too many people in Scotland desperately clinging onto the idea of the survival of the old status quo (that of being able to remain in both unions), an illusion that, in my view, the political arms of the English establishment are only too happy to preserve for as long as possible with delay after delay and no clarity whatsoever and with illusions of people’s votes. Perhaps what the SNP has been trying all along is to bring constantly to the fore the people’s vote not as much as an encouragement for it to happen but more as a way for the tories and labour to grow the backbone of publicly rejecting it for once and for all.

      The moment of truth will be when the option of “remaining in both unions” is finally taken away from all those people, being that by means of a definite and final brexit date, a hard brexit, a dodgy deal brexit, the complete rejection of revoking A50, the elimination of the possibility of a people’s vote or a “people’s vote” that gives again a brexit result.

      Cynical as I am, I have been wondering for quite a while if the perceived “incompetence” of Westminster to decide one way or another for so many months and the convenient “fracture” of labour and tories with sections “demanding” for a “people’s vote” has been engineered as a maneuver to delay the moment for the above voters to having to wake up and smell the coffee of a reality where remaining in both unions is not longer an option.

      What is clear to me is that this is simply been a waiting game and one that is testing which of the two main forces driving this game can hold the longest and push the hardest: if the pro Scottish independence parties fighting against brexit or rather the pro VIP taxdodgers, Tax haven-philes, anti EU tax avoidance regs, pro USA-UK deal, pro neocon on steroids ideologies, desperate for brexit. Because lets not make any mistake here, these are the 2 real forces driving this and the only 2 forces which have brought the UK politics to a standstill – any excuses used by the pro-brexiteers are also applicable for the pro-independence forces, so the stronger the pro-brexit site gets, the stronger it makes the pro-independence site at the same time. TIG’s, LibDems and fractions of tories and Labour asking for a People’s vote are simply a reflection of the English establishment desperately attempting to slow and cool down that end game fight by prolonging the illusion that the option of the old status quo is still very much possible – hence revoking A50 or the people’s vote have not been discarded completely yet – this weakens the brexit side and with that is destroying the Establishment politics, but it is a necessary evil to weaken the pro-indy side that grows stronger as teh brexit process moves forward.

      What the English establishment has in its hands is a time bomb and MPs from the political arms of the English establishment are desperately passing the ticking bombshell from one to the other. Have we ever seen tories and labour “negotiating” some kind of coalition before this? The only way to stop the advance of pro-indy forces is by obliterating completely the pro-brexit side and doing so will inevitably destroy the concept of England bipartite politics as we know it. In addition, the English establishment is going to have to deal with a very disappointed electorate and of course with the angry vested interests (foreign and domestic) who pushed for brexit in the first place and that have not achieved the embarrassment of riches they were hoping to get by now.

      Now, wouldn’t it be marvelous to find a common ground where to unite those two opposing forces on the same side against the English establishment, like for example by finding a way to get the pro brexit elements in England to see Scotland dissolving the union as the only possible way to achieve it?

    64. Macart says:

      @Proud Cybernat 1.34pm

      Wins the internet. 😀

    65. Gary says:

      The unionists seem to have shifted from Brexit to Remain, other variations are fairly minimal.

      It’s NOT a four way choice though, so the figures are only useful as a tool for direction of travel. In this case, AWAY from Brexit from those who very likely voted for it.

      But HOW does this situation resolve itself? Would any future government overturn the referendum or re-run it? VERY doubtful, the people of England & Wales would be, rightly, up in arms that their democratic voice was being ignored (Yeh, I know how THAT feels!)

      Labour want the Tories to get Brexit resolved so they can use the mess as an election tool. May wants to be able to say she’s tried every possible avenue (ie speaking to Labour)There’s no majority for ANY solution and the EU will extend this into the long grass for as long as possible.

      The next Westminster government is likely to be a hung parliament, but which party will form a coalition?

      If the Tories can’t go begging back to their terrorist-sympathising chums in the DUP and LidDems aren’t numerous enough to help Labour form a government that would leave ONE other option. A confidence and supply arrangement between Labour and SNP. SNP could agree a deal for Brexit, to respect the English & Welsh vote at the price of having the right to decide when referenda are called on Indy. NOT just get one, have the RIGHT TO DECIDE when they are called. That way we can get out before Scotland is removed from the EU along with England…

    66. Iain 2 says:

      I have been banging on for years that the Snp having the policy that an independant Scotland would at least pay the european average penson.
      This would make independence certain.

    67. yesindyref2 says:

      @Dr Jim
      I think you’re right, but still a good idea to keep the pressure on.

    68. Big Jock says:

      Does anyone think that Nicola is actually going to announce an independence referendum. She is hoping that the next two weeks deliver a WM deal with Corbyn backing it.

      The two weeks are just another way of saying. I will see what the shape of Brexit is. It’s just been framed a different way. She is gambling on events making her decision for her. If nothing changes in the next two weeks. She will cobble together some version of kicking the can down the road.

      Please don’t get your expectations up people. It will only lead to more frustration.

      I will happily take a slap and eat humble pie if I am wrong.

    69. Ottomanboi says:

      Should Scotland come out of this badly the SNP is toast. Sturgeon & co have been too concerned with saving the UK from quitting the EU. This strategy, if you can call it such, has failed. It has wasted precious time when an all out propaganda assault on the British state and all its devious and incompetent works might have been effectively mounted.
      Independence supporters are frustrated. A party that once had 56 mps and >50% of the Westminster vote did nothing with it. Woefully pathetic.
      The SNP conference should be interesting, provided the great leader’s stage managers are kept well away.

    70. yesindyref2 says:

      @Iain 2
      In stages starting with an immediate rise, and going up in stages as the economy improves.

      And get this link on the mobile or whatever and do a calc for the old person to let them know hown many years pension they can expect!

      https://thepeoplespension.co.uk/calculators/life-expectancy-calculator/#!/

      Also a good idea perhaps to say that iScotland might regulate private pension schemes to make them prudent and safe.

    71. yesindyref2 says:

      Mmm, 1 in 4 chance I’ll reach the age of 92. Poor world, I feel sorry for it!

    72. yesindyref2 says:

      Mmm, talking pensions, old people, female voting intention gap, there’s WASPI which any non-Tory Scottish Government would address urgently.

      Plus the Scotland’s Future plan was not to follow the UK scale for pension age, due to the approximately 2 year less life expectancy in Scotland. Relevant to say 60-64 year-olds,

    73. Thepnr says:

      @Ottomanboi

      “Woefully pathetic.”

      Yes you are.

    74. Scottish Steve says:

      Ooh, Scotland is so divided. All this politics stuff is so divisive according to unionists. We might as well all just shut up about it and keep the status quo.

      Politics is divisive by nature. And different societal groups have conflicting interests. That’s democracies for you. They’re messy.

    75. geeo says:

      @maria F 3.48pm

      Good post, and totally agree that Ukexit has long since been about getting a ‘brexit’ that England wants, without losing the Scottish resources, by us gaining enough support for independence, because of our clear objection and rejection of leaving the EU.

      The SNP have been busy for a couple of years now, whittling away at the options for WM trying to stop ukexit driving Scots indy.

      The Continuity Bill highlighted brilliantly that WM think they can walk over Scots Law by employing “sleekit” means, but the reality is, Scots Law was indeed subjugated, as The Queen had no right to give the Wrecking Bill Royal Assent before the Scots Law Bill (Continuity).

      Sleekit means is still subjugation, it just moved to being sleekit subjugation.

      That alone is reason for Sovereign Scots to punt Betty.

      The thing is though, WM knows that was not going to fly later in international courts, as once they are informed that the Queen had a LEGAL duty to protect the interests of Scots Law and CHOSE to allow WM to employ sleekit means, and not only that, SHE enabled them by giving Royal Assent priority to the wrecking bill, they will have no option but to rule with Scotsgov on that one.

      And that means that the international courts, must find the Treaty of Union in full and open breach, and Holyrood is recognised as the government of the now independent, Scotland.

      If WM think they are on strong legal ground re: over ruling Scots Law/Sovereignty of the Scots People, and simply saying ‘No’ to a Section 30 and tough titty, then why do they not simply ‘get on’ with a No Deal ukexit ?

      Simply, because they KNOW the legal position they sit on, is just not legally competent and will be eviscerated by a Scottish gov/parliamentary presented case to the international courts/bodies.

      WM is crippled by fear of losing Scotland’s revenues, and are apopletic with rage over Scotsgov refusal to show its hand too early, allowing WM to find more ‘sleekit’ ways to circumvent our case for indy.

      There is only ONE route WM can take, which allows them a hope of keeping Scotland tied to the Union.

      A Section 30 referendum, at a time of Scotsgov choosing, and on Scotland’s terms to the fore.

      Thanks to some great work over the last few years by the SNP (and others-revoke A.50 case) there are ZERO other scenario’s which do not involve the Scotsgov having the right to simply dissolve the Treaty of Union for subjugation of Scots Law (Continuity Bill) subjugation of Scots Sovereign Will (ANY ukexit) EVEL (denial of legally equal union partner status) amongst others.

      Even if Nicola writes to Treeza and states “We will be having an indyref on xyz day / date, with a S.30 order” and treeza tries her “now is not the time” patter, then its off to Holyrood and a dissolution motion as the United Nations charters, which WM is a signatory to, is VERY specific.
      ……..

      http://www.un.org/en/decolonization/declaration.shtml

      3. Inadequacy of political, economic, social or educational preparedness should never serve as a pretext for delaying independence.
      ……….

      In other words, now IS the time.

      No matter the political shambles of ukexit, no matter if it destroys the WM led economy, no matter what, an indyref, with or without a S.30, called by Scotsgov/Holyrood, MUST be respected as by rights afforded by the U.N. never mind a cast iron mandate by Sovereign Scots and Holyrood.

      Imagine if English voters ever figured out that they are actually being denied their precious ‘brexit’ because WM gov is petrified of losing Scotland ?

      Having to admit Scotland keeps England afloat, after centuries of propaganda saying the complete opposite !

      Not sure English political establishment, as is, could survive such a monumental earthquake.

      THAT is down to the hard work and great patience of the SNP.

      Why would people think, after years of brilliant positioning/politiking, that the SNP have suddenly decided to contrive to shit the bed at the moment of proof ?

      Makes no sense if you examine the big picture, so i shall continue to keep the faith, and remain supremely confident in the job the SNP/Scotsgov are doing.

      We ARE winning, i have zero doubt about that at all.

    76. geeo says:

      Iain 2 @3.56pm

      Such a promise would certainly have helped enormously, although, pensioners were also told they wouldnt even GET a pension…!

      No denying that plenty could have been swayed by the offer though.

    77. Bibbit Blair says:

      So the folk we mostly think are the most ‘cautious’ or ‘risk averse’ in life, i.e. oor auld grannies, are actually closet Thelma & Louises…

    78. Iain 2 says:

      Great post geeo,hope you are right.

    79. Hamish100 says:

      As a matter of interest are under 18’s excluded from polling?

    80. Jockanese Wind Talker says:

      “All this politics stuff is so divisive”. Aye @Scottish Steve says at 4:45 pm it certainly is.

      Just as well that Westminster’s slide into Authoritarianism will soon end in proper Dictatorship (Right Wing English Neo-Fascist Styli).

      That’ll put an end to all this unpleasant divisiveness (which was supposed to be settled for a generation in 2014 apparently)!

      GSTQ & Her Fascist Regime right enough.

      😉

    81. jfngw says:

      Well those 30% that want to be in the UK & EU will have to jump one way or another. With indy in the EU and Indy outside the EU at 40%, then you only need to attract 10% of them.

      Of course those that want Indy outside the EU may cut of their noses to spite their face. It would be the Scottish way of things, Indy supporters voting against Indy because it’s not the Indy of their choice.

    82. Scottish Steve says:

      @Jockanese Wind Talker

      I am genuinely convinced that if Scotland’s representatives were removed from Westminster and we were just ruled by a horde of English MPs with zero say, most unionists up here would be perfectly content with that.

      All this independence/self-rule stuff is just too hard. Better that the big country and its people next door do it all for us.

      Unionists/North Brits: the infants of Scottish politics.

    83. Hamish100 says:

      It’s funny that the Tories don’t like being governed by a larger body than their own little own local authority.
      East Renfrewshire, Rutherglen / Cambuslang , Bearsden areas are happy to earn their monies in Glasgow but don’t want to be run by Glasgow preferring to have their own authority areas.

      Personally Glasgow should charge all those “outsiders ” a middle class rate for wandering around The Art Galleries !!!

    84. Heart of Galloway says:

      Heart of Galloway says:
      Your comment is awaiting moderation.
      12 April, 2019 at 10:36 am
      Leith Walk by-election result could be a significant straw in the wind. SNP gain from Labour, SNP and Green vote up, Tory and Slab vote down, Indy vote 61 per cent.
      It looks odds on that we will contest the Euro elections on May 23, a plebiscite in which Scotland will have the chance to remind Europe to ‘leave the light on’ for us.
      I foresee the campaigns in Scotland and England taking entirely different paths, ours coloured by an internationalist desire to remain in the EU family of nations, England’s by recrimination and nasty nationalism.
      Voter motivation will also come into play with the Indy parties likely to be the beneficiaries of strong and committed pro-EU sentiment. The SNP are a stick-on for 2 seats, Labour should scrape one and May’s epic feck-up could see the Tories reduced to a single seat. That leaves two up for grabs but who will claim them?
      I reckon UKIP’ clown Coburn is oot on his erse, which leaves the Greens, Lib Dens and SNP as players. Most likely scenario is the Lib Dems and Greens pick them up, leaving a score of Indy 3, UKOK 3.
      That in itself would be a major advance from 2014’s 2-4 defeat and would bode well for IndyRef2. However, it is not out with the realms of possibility that the SNP and Greens could pick up seats 5 and 6, delivering a 4-2 Indy victory. Imagine what that would do to the political dynamic!
      This is one reason why May is desperate to avoid Participation in the Euros – a hugely divergent result in Scotland and England highlighting the determination of Scotland to go her own way.

    85. velofello says:

      “We’re tired folks’ – a lead in for me to say that I’m tired of the crass stupidity, incompetence and lying of May and her cohorts – would you offer any of them a job on your business? – and me, a life-time SNP supporter, I’m getting frustrated by the SNP. The route, and the timing is clear. Brextension thankfully affords us another clear opportunity, with time to hold the IndyRef before Brexit is finally triggered, and for Scotland to decide on remaining in the EU.

      A strange Treaty if a country cannot rescind a Treaty.So enough of this Section 30 stuff. Hold a referendum on the clearest of terms – independence and remaining a EU member. The SNP must advise May without pause of Scotland’s decision to hold Indyref2.

      May will whine, May will threaten, May will need to heed what the Eu says.

    86. Ken500 says:

      Just talk to yer auld granny.

      Independent Scotland could easily afford to pay higher OAPensions. Scotland already pays the (UK) Gov OAP. Less spend pro rata than the rest of the UK. People in Scotland on average die younger. Scotland could easily pay higher OAP. Not paying for illegal wars, tax evasion, financial fraud, Hinkley Point, HS2, Trident etc.

      Irish Republic pays much higher pensions and benefits. They do not have the resources and assets of Scotland. Scotland raises, pro rata, more in tax revenues than the rest of the UK.

    87. DerekM says:

      @ Geeo

      They could have left on day 1 this whole 3 years has all been about them trying to keep Scotland.

      If we had called indyref they would have revoked A50 and used their veto to scare us,the tories dont give a damn about people or countries or what they want or voted for they do what they want for as long as they get away with it for.

      A lot of people are down,grumpy,fed up,impatient cant blame them as they think that we are back in groundhog day again but that is not correct because something has changed something important we are still EU citizens and the UK can no longer threaten us with a veto to join the EU even if they revoke A50 its too late.

      I posted before about this feeling like a plan and how one of the road blocks to independence in the EU has been removed,the UK veto threat.

    88. geeo says:

      Not sure when this was, but worth the watch just the same…!!

      https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=10157153998947232&id=805772231

    89. Iain mhor says:

      Can we put numbers on the demographics?
      I think the poll shows that there are several relatively unchanging mindsets within Scotland. Eg. A poll will always have a elderly, tory women as ‘brexiteer unionists’ and suchlike.
      I’m minded though of ‘The Battle of New Orleans’:
      “We fired our guns and the British kept a comin,
      There wasn’t nigh as many as there was a while ago…”

      There can’t really be any danger of the ultimate poll – an Indyref. It will put numbers back on the board.
      If it is a loss we are still in the same position as ever.
      If its a close one, it will put to bed the arguments of “no-one wants Indy” restore the spirits and embolden the faithfull. Of course if it is a win…

      What really is the argument for not holding a referendum which may be lost? That it will put the question to bed forever? Didn’t last time. It will lose the SNP support? Didn’t last time, it will kill all clamour for Independence stone dead…what exactly is the bad thing which will happen?

      If you don’t have Independence you don’t have it. Where is the great bonus of living life under a ‘potential Indy’, is it really having an Indy Sword of Damocles to hold over the head of WM, in order to eek out little concessions in perpetuity? Pah, that’s a craven, snivelling little country.

      Alternatively, it certainly does not appear to be an ultimate prize, being held tantalizingly out of reach, while the faithfull are exhorted and whipped into a frenzy to claim it. That’s the modus-operandi of the right-wing certainly, but the vanguard of Independence politicians? Nope – “If you’re good ye can mibbe have a sweetie – if ah mind at the checkout and no busy rummlin ma purse for change, or bletherin tae the neebor”

      Only the ragged army of the Yes movement is raising any clamour and if Scotland doesn’t want it now, perhaps it never will – if only there was a way to find out…

    90. Petra says:

      @Iain2 at 3:36pm …… “Promised pension rise.”

      The problem with that Iain is that many elderly people don’t believe, for one minute, that an Independent Scotland would be able to afford to pay a higher rate of pension. In fact last time round many had been brainwashed into thinking that their pension would cease to be altogether the week following Independence. That opinion of theirs will be reinforced when the time comes, of course, with the BritNats making a point of informing everyone of that massive Scottish black hole that ranges from £10 to £16 billion depending on who’s telling the story.

      The SNHS on the other hand which is tangible (rather than an imaginary pension rise) due to many people having experience of it would have a massive impact on people if they thought that they were going to lose it.

    91. Jockanese Wind Talker says:

      That’s the 20% – 30% Hardcore British Nationalists @
      Scottish Steve says at 5:54 pm

      As long as they can wave a wee Union Fleg and say they are British they’d live in shit.

      Some are Religious Fundamentalists – DUP/OO types.

      Others were raised to believe that Scots are inferior to the English and as they can’t be English, they default to being British (still not English but better being Scottish in their minds).

      Others are sufferers from Jockholm Syndrome but this category is shrinking.

    92. galamcennalath says:

      My plan for Indy success….

      1) Everyone is a potential convert if the right buttons are pressed. The best people to convert NOs to YES is by their nearest and dearest – partners, spouses, off springs, grand children – you need to gently but regularly work on your NO relatives.

      2) Older folks – their pensions and the NHS are key. A carrot and a stick. As others have suggested, promise iScotland will bring pensions up to the EU average quickly, and beyond in time. Make sure they understand that a devolved Holyrood cannot protect their NHS if the UK moves to the right and mimics the US. Only iScotland can guarantee an NHS.

      3) Young folks – get them engaged and registered to vote, and get them to turn out on the day. It’s their future we are fighting for. They need to understand their future might be taken away from them!

    93. Capella says:

      @ DerekM 2.42 – point taken 🙂

    94. Jason Smoothpiece says:

      geeo@ 6:22

      Nice one not the answer she wanted I would say.

    95. jfngw says:

      Unionists have a simple philosophy, they only believe in unions where they can dominate and strip the assets of the other country. Obviously the local unionists need some bribery, so they are given the ermine (although maybe it’s just cat). Or they see that being in a larger country makes them feel more important, those nukes are as good as a aphrodisiac to some.

    96. galamcennalath says:

      Iain mhor says:

      I’m minded though of ‘The Battle of New Orleans’:
      “We fired our guns and the British kept a comin,
      There wasn’t nigh as many as there was a while ago…”

      Sadly, the ‘British’ who display illogical bravery on that occasion were the Argyll and Sutherland Highlanders.

      Scots need to display a different kind of bravery now. However, on this occasion it would be for a better more just cause.

    97. Bill Hume says:

      Cheer up people……I must admit that I have had more than a couple of drinks, so treat with caution.

      Westminster is about to explode…..gammon faces are about to get even redder…Jacob rhees somthing what’s his name will be applopletic, the Labour Party will do as they always do….and abstain.
      The right wing shit for brains who idolise Tommy lexly yanon (or whatever he’s calling himself this week) will be rioting in the streets.
      Rev……keep the faith……we need you.
      I’m pissed (hey I’m at my wife’s birthday party), but I’m not about to give up on the prospect of Scottish independence. No way.
      Rev…..gird your loins…….the best is yet to come.

    98. yesindyref2 says:

      @Iain mhor
      Mmm, Indy Ref 1 lost. SNP membership goes up from 25,500 to 125,000. Call it 5 times. MPs go up from 6 to 56 – 9 1/3 times.

      If Indy ref 2 were to be lost, SNP membership goes up from 125,500 to 750,000. MPs go up from 56 to 522. They’d take over the House of Commons! We’d OWN the UK!

    99. yesindyref2 says:

      Mmm, maths not quite right there, but close enough for Government work.

    100. CameronB Brodie says:

      You can’t expect rational political thought in a media environment that predominantly supports right-wing, xenophobic, nationalism. The Brexit process has undone democracy in Britain, which has been incrementally reduced to a process of majoritarian populism. Scots better be prepared to start performing as Brexitarians, as both the Prime-minister and Queen appear to think the British constitution is ‘optional documentation’. Without adherence to the Moral Law, British nationalism is simply English fascism.

      Are Increasing Inequalities Threatening Democracy in Europe?
      https://carnegieeurope.eu/2019/02/04/are-increasing-inequalities-threatening-democracy-in-europe-pub-78270

    101. geeo says:

      @yesindyref2 6.47pm

      With such numbers at WM, we could vote to ban England from, well, everything !!

      Actually, thats vindictive and cruel, we could let English MP’s vote to choose the tea room biscuits.

    102. CameronB Brodie says:

      Why is the BBC not highlighting investigations in to the criminal hijacking of the Brexit vote. Could it be they support English fascism?

    103. geeo says:

      @Cameron

      The BBC are an integral PART of English fascism.

    104. Muscleguy says:

      The UK in the EU people will be the one’s who will be more likely to vote Yes after or in the context of Brexit since this option seems less and less likely to pertain. The status quo is no longer an option, it is which change do you want.

      We need an official campaign to go canvassing and persuading them.

    105. Dr Jim says:

      The Telegraph is firced to retract and apologise for Boris Johnson Making up his own figures which turned out to be lies
      this is not the first time Boris has been caught doing this and yet the English will support him being their next Prime Minister
      It seems they’re rather fond of Prime Ministers who lie their faces off

      I’d call that pretty relevant material circumstances wouldn’t you

    106. CameronB Brodie says:

      Some stuff on the Moral Law and democracy.

      Morality and democracy
      https://medium.com/reformermag/morality-and-democracy-f5da43e6986a

      DEMOCRACY AND MORALITY
      faculty.tcu.edu/rgalvin/readings/DEMOCRACY%20AND%20MORALITY.doc

      Democracy and Natural Law
      https://scholarship.law.nd.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1047&context=nd_naturallaw_forum

      Natural Law, Justice and Democracy–Some
      Reflections on Three Types of Thinking about Law
      and Justice

      chicagounbound.uchicago.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=11601&context=journal_articles

    107. CameronB Brodie says:

      geeo
      I know that, you know that but a lot of Scots have been brought up as mushrooms, i.e. kept in the dark and fed a news diet of keach. 😉

    108. yesindyref2 says:

      @geeo
      If the UK Gov really wanted to understand the “United” Kingdom, it could try some indicative votes where the 59 Scottish MPs were allowed to vote, the 18 NI (minus SF presumably) and the 40 Welsh MPs – and just 59 English MPs. Seem how they like that …

    109. yesindyref2 says:

      “The New Devolution Bill.
      Block grants to Scotalnd, Wales and Northern Ireland will be multiplied by a factor of 10”.

      Ayes 100
      Nays 81 (you’d always get a few!)

      The Ayes have it, the ayes have it. Queen’s Assent in 10 minutes.

      Mmm, forget about the “indicative” bit.

    110. David Francis says:

      The ONLY one which matters, is the first one – ALL Scots.

      The answer to that – Indy in the EU – shows the direction Scotland wants to go.

      The rest is interesting, but irrelevant when it comes to the Vote.

    111. Dr Jim says:

      So the British Nationalists are complaining about the SNP winning Leith on around 30% odd turnout
      If I could just point out the Tories are in charge of the entire UK on not much more %

    112. CameronB Brodie says:

      Does the Church of Scotland still pledge allegiance to (white) British nationalism? Do they consider themselves agents of moral good, or are they comfortable as enablers of right-wing, xenophobic, nationalism? Is the Church of Scotland simply an out-of-touch enabler of English Torydum.

      Rule Britannia and all that pish!

    113. ScottieDog says:

      @CameronB Brodie
      WRT religion and moral text, ever wondered why debt jubilees are seldom mentioned amongst the sermons?
      It was very common across the religious spectrum and often practiced – before the banisters took over that it.

    114. CameronB Brodie says:

      @Church of Scotland
      Some homework for you, might help bring you up to speed on the morality of contemporary politics.

      The Rule of Law
      https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/rule-of-law/

      Natural Law and Democracy: The Philosophy of James Wilson
      https://www.lawliberty.org/2018/11/20/natural-law-and-democracy-the-philosophy-of-james-wilson/

      “THE HUMAN RIGHT TO DEMOCRACY –
      A MORAL DEFENCE WITH A LEGAL NUANCE”

      https://www.venice.coe.int/WebForms/documents/default.aspx?pdffile=CDL-UD(2010)003-e

      Human rights and democracy in a global context: decoupling and recoupling
      https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.3402/egp.v4i1.6348

    115. Thepnr says:

      Listen to this liar on yesterdays Peston show.

      Jeremy Hunt on why a Customs Union with the EU is a bad idea and he uses Whisky and the NHS as examples of why it would be bad.

      https://twitter.com/itvpeston/status/1116231593578958848

    116. Wee Alex says:

      OT but just watched Internet blog on impact of Universal Credit.

      Makes me think the Tories are using Brexit to cover up the utter misery that is going on. People’s lives destroyed and suicides down to the Tories inhumane policies.

      I’m perhaps crediting the Tories with more intelligenxe than they actually have but the use of deflection is an art form they have perfected.

    117. Big Jock says:

      Nicola is waiting 2 weeks to see if the EU elections go ahead. If they do it will be:” Show Westminster, Stronger for Scotland” All that jazz we have heard before. I have lost interest.

    118. CameronB Brodie says:

      @Church of Scotland
      The image you had of Britain no longer applies. Time you wised up and started looking after your congregation. That’s if you want to remain morally relevant that is.

      Democracy and Human Rights under pressure: the effects of right-wing populism, post-truth and radicalisation on Education for Democracy with young people
      http://dare-network.eu/democracy-and-human-rights-under-pressure-the-effects-of-right-wing-populism-post-truth-and-radicalisation-on-education-for-democracy-with-young-people/

      Political violence, civic space and human rights defence in the era of populism and authoritarianism
      https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/political-violence-civic-space-and-human-rights-defence-in-era-of-populism-and-authori/

      Populism and the Rule of Law
      http://www.lse.ac.uk/International-Inequalities/Assets/Documents/Working-Papers/III-Working-Paper-28-Lacey-Populism-and-the-Rule-of-Law.pdf

      RISING TO THE POPULIST CHALLENGE
      A NEW PLAYBOOK FOR HUMAN RIGHTS ACTORS

      https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/ksikkink/files/rising-to-the-populist-challenge-version-final-para-web-1.pdf

    119. Petra says:

      Bampots United: We’ve heard that Boris Johnston’s father is planning to stand in the EU election. Next up, Jacob Rees-Mogg’s sister is standing for EU election via Farage’s party. One thing for sure is that the Brexiteers won’t be giving up anytime soon. If A50 was to be revoked or Remain won in an EURef2 they’ll still fight on. In other words if we remain in this Union we’ll always be living under the threat of being dragged out of the EU.

      http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-party-rees-mogg-sister-annunziata-eu-election-candidate-farage-a8866631.html

    120. Scottish Steve says:

      @Jockanese Wind Talker

      My uncle is one of those hardcore British nationalists. He’s Orange and voted No because he’s proud to be British and “we fought two wars together” (his words not mine.) The irony of it all is his mum is Catholic yet is happy to sing along about being up to his knees in Fenian blood.

      We had a conversation the last time he visited. He said that Muslims are outbreeding Christians in the UK (he doesn’t even attend church) and that it was Nicola Sturgeon’s fault we were being taken out the EU. He also said Sturgeon is only interested in courting the Muslim vote although he used a derogatory term. I’ll let you guess what it was but it starts with a P and ends with an I. He then proceeded to complain about various issues, all of which are reserved to Westminster.

      Once I corrected him about all this, he told me he is convinced independence will be shit, that Westminster is also shit and that nothing will change. I asked him what we should do then. He said, “better the devil you know.”

      Some people are beyond help.

    121. John Thomson says:

      May and Corbyn will do a deal to get withdrawal agreement through so that EU elections will not take place. If they do not then both parties will be significantly reduced. This mays local elections will be very interesting.

    122. Soda says:

      Ok then, so if most people want to remain in the EU as an indy state or want to remain in the UK and EU then the people who want to remain in both the UK and the EU need to be slapped about the face repeatedly until they understand THEY CANNOT HAVE BOTH!

      They can have EU membership but only as an independent state. I suggest a regular kick in the crotch on the hour every hour until they grasp that simple premise.
      I also suggest a general ban on voting for elderly harris tweed skirt wearing middle class blue rinse ladies as those auld cows wont be around for long anyway… at least not as long as it will take to clear up this brexit mess…

    123. CameronB Brodie says:

      Britain culture is sick, part of a wider social malaise. Scotland must break free from political subjugation, if we want our grandchildren to have any hope.

      Demonising populism won’t work – Europe needs a progressive populist alternative

      How should Europe react to the rise of populist parties? Chantal Mouffe argues that the consensus established between centre-right and centre-left parties on the notion there is no alternative to neoliberal globalisation has left Europe in a post-democratic phase, fuelling the rise of right-wing populist parties. Moral condemnation and demonisation of the supporters of such parties does not work: what is required is an alternative populism that is reformulated in a progressive way, defining the adversary as the configuration of forces that strengthen and promote the neoliberal project.
      https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2018/09/13/demonising-populists-wont-work-europe-needs-a-progressive-populist-alternative/

      The difference between right and left-wing populism
      Right-wing populism evokes fear, left-wing populism hope.

      https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/01/difference-left-wing-populism-170112162814894.html

      Populism, Sovereigntism, and the Unlikely Re-Emergence of the Territorial Nation-State
      https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40647-018-0233-z

      Capacity Building – Conclusions and Recommendations “How to Counter Right Wing Populism and Extremism in Europe”
      https://eu.boell.org/en/2015/12/24/capacity-building-conclusions-and-recommendations-how-counter-right-wing-populism-and

    124. CameronB Brodie says:

      In need to learn to proof read better.

      Democratic stress, the populist signal and extremist threat
      A call for a new mainstream statecraft and contact democracy

      https://progressivepost.eu/wp-content/uploads/Democratic-Stress-the-Populist-Signal-and-Extremist-Threat.pdf

    125. Iain mhor says:

      @galamcennalath 6:45pm
      Aye right enough, though I was using the lyrics more allegorically, for the possible gradual reduction of the older British Nationalists as a demographic; through natural attrition and volleys of information from Independence campaigning.
      Yeah, that was a bit of a tortured metaphor too haha, but thanks for the historical info anyway.

    126. CameronB Brodie says:

      Given the Brexit vote was corrupted by dark money, here’s some more on “contact democracy” and human rights.

      Rule of Law – Democracy and Human Rights
      https://www.ohchr.org/EN/Issues/RuleOfLaw/Pages/Democracy.aspx

      Democracy and human rights policy – democracy
      https://ec.europa.eu/europeaid/sectors/human-rights-and-governance/democracy-and-human-rights/democracy_en

      CALL FOR PAPERS
      CORRUPTION, DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS

      esil-sedi.eu/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/EUI-conference-CfP-corruption-democracy-and-human-rights-def.pdf

      Corruption Democracy and Human Rights: Exploring new avenues in the fight against corruption
      http://www2.port.ac.uk/school-of-law/school-events/corruption-democracy-and-human-rights-exploring-new-avenues-in-the-fight-against-corruption/

    127. CameronB Brodie says:

      And a bit more on the interaction between the rule-of-law and “contact democracy”.

      The Moral Distinctiveness of Representative Democracy.
      https://eric.ed.gov/?id=ED175775

      The relationship between organizational democracy and socio-moral climate: Exploring effects of the ethical context in organizations
      https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/0143831X12450054

      Against Supranationalism: In Defence of National Sovereignty and Brexit
      https://www.plutobooks.com/blog/national-sovereignty-supranationalism-brexit/ (N.B. Britain is a union of nations, not a supranational entity as English Tories would have you believe. From a Scottish perspective, the EU is more democratic than Westminster.)

      Sovereignty, International Law and Democracy
      https://academic.oup.com/ejil/article/22/2/373/540688

    128. Big Del says:

      Where/who is this country that Farage the fange, SKY with BBC talks about?
      Britain is an Island NOT a country………
      Asked again today “ What does it say n yer blah” shit ?

      Please Nichola call it……

    129. James Barr Gardner says:

      O/T Coleman’s Island Norther Ireland.

      A pene-enclave is almost an enclave in the same way that a peninsula* almost is an island.

      The Irish border as designated by the Westminster Government at the time goes to prove their incompetence is ageless.

      Check Google Map for this enclave, BBC don’t say much about this, perhaps it’s too embarrassing for the London centric ruling classes !

    130. CameronB Brodie says:

      @Church of Scotland
      While I’m at it, I hope you remember that “harm prevention” is the most compelling legal argument, with respect to Moral Law.

      What does Brexit mean for social policy in the UK?
      An exploration of the potential consequences of the 2016 referendum for public services, inequalities and social rights

      Summary

      ….The paper explores the consequences of Brexit understood in two ways – as the referendum result itself and as the eventual outcome of negotiations over the exit process and shape of future relations with Europe. Regardless of where the process ends up, the result changed British politics. The evidence the vote presented of deep disaffection with the status quo, the change of administration, and the time and resources focused on withdrawal negotiations and scenario planning have all had ongoing implications for social policymaking.

      In terms of the eventual outcome, huge uncertainty remains and may well continue for years to come. Against this backdrop, the paper maps out the implications of likely alternatives, including a central scenario in which the UK leaves the single market and brings an end to the free movement of workers. We consider the implications under five broad headings i) the effects on the economy, with knock-on consequences for living standards and public spending; ii) withdrawal from European labour, social protection and human rights legislation; iii) the implications of an end to free movement for the social rights and entitlements of EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the EU; iv) implications of leaving the single market for public service delivery more widely; and v) implications of regaining control over resources and regulations, including those governing public procurement and industrial strategy. We seek throughout to look for the opportunities as well as the risks of Brexit, and to highlight government action that could mitigate risks and allow opportunities to be maximised.

      Our overarching conclusion is that Brexit poses major risks to social policy, and that these risks are larger the more distant the UK’s future relationship with the EU. Social policy has been affected by the UK’s membership of the EU in multiple ways – and hence will be deeply unsettled by leaving.

      Evidence points towards lower economic growth under all Brexit scenarios, meaning lower living standards and less money for public services – the opposite of a ‘Brexit dividend’. Slower growth could also result in downward pressure on workers’ rights as the UK tries to find new ways to invite investment and boost employment. And a weaker economy will make the UK a less attractive place for the migrant workers we are likely to continue to need to keep our public services running.

      Concerns about immigration were interpreted as being one of the key drivers of the referendum result, and ending the free movement of workers has been a red line for the UK government from early on. But a fall in EU migration also looks likely to have significant negative consequences for social policy. EU migrants play an important role in the delivery of health and social care and in housing construction, so reduced migration will make it more difficult – and more expensive – to provide these services.

      The consequences for service delivery are likely to be much greater than any reduction in service demand. Aside from their role in delivering services, EU migrants are estimated to pay more into the exchequer in taxes than they take out in benefits and services, so reduced migration will have a negative effect on public finances. And evidence does not suggest there will be significant compensatory effects on the wages of UK-born workers as a result of reduced competition….

      sticerd.lse.ac.uk/dps/case/spdo/spdorp03.pdf

    131. Cactus says:

      Your timely update:

      The ghost of Brexit past (29/03/19)
      https://howmanydaystill.com/its/brexit-6

      The ghost of Brexit present (12/04/19)
      https://howmanydaystill.com/its/new-brexit-19

      The ghost of Brexit yet to come (31/10/19… subject to change)
      https://howmanydaystill.com/its/halloween-brexit-19

      (Disclaimer: “Excludes Scotland & Northern Ireland”)

    132. CameronB Brodie says:

      I’ve posted this before but Scotland needs to wise up or it will end up a footnote in history.

      Media definitely do matter: Brexit, immigration, climate change and beyond

      Abstract

      The notion that the media’s principal role regarding public opinion is reinforcement of pre-existing attitudes – and that this idea is relative inconsequential politically – is pervasive, across many political and social science sub-disciplines, and in non-academic commentary.

      This article comprehensively challenges the evidential and theoretical underpinnings of this thesis, drawing on a wealth of contemporary survey data and media coverage research, across a range of issues, including climate change, Brexit, immigration, the economy and benefit fraud. It also argues that ‘reinforcement’ is an important and consequential power, and that the processes involved have significant implications for public misperception of salient political issues.

      It makes the case that the media create attitudinal uncertainty, and can have pervasive but subtle influences on political attitudes, particularly when there are persistent patterns of coverage across a range of media. But also that in contexts like particularly close political contests, such influences can be decidedly consequential.

      Keywords media impact, minimalist influence thesis, public misconceptions, public opinion, reinforcement, United Kingdom

      https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1369148118799260

    133. MacMina MacAllan says:

      Obviously thought provoking article leading to lots of good comments.

      Pensions and pensioners will be critical. I really like the idea of promising and being prepared to raise pensions to average European levels. We should at least be repeatedly passing on the message that UK pensions are so embarrassingly low nobody in their right mind should consider voting to keep them, only demanding better, much better.

      And the future should be for the young to decide. At pension age or retirement you stop contributing tax and NI etc so you give up your right to vote and are compensated with a bus pass and respectful care in the community. Seems like a good deal at the time of life you should be moving towards relaxing.

      Striving to raise support for inde2 and fighting to prevent Brexit is anything but relaxing!
      At my age, I’m pushing 80, I should be pottering in the greenhouse and taking time to read books and sitting by the fire with a dram.
      In my experience ‘on the doorsteps’ the very elderly voters are not making any rational choice based on available facts. They are paying no attention to reality and current changing circumstances. It’s easier to vote as they have always voted as it saves thinking. They have opted out, they are not involved, yet they vote. Their choice possibly based on a decision they made decades ago when they last thought about political options.
      Time to think of the children and grandchildrens’ generation and to put their hopes and aspirations for their country before elderly self-interest, or maybe self-apathy if there is such a term!

      Be prepared to take up adult responsibility, including the duty to vote, at age 16 then be prepared to step back and resign that responsibility on retirement.

    134. Thepnr says:

      Incorrect Cactus.

      The UK’s 2nd chance to leave the EU was 2 minutes ago 🙂

    135. Cactus says:

      Something has messed wae mah 12/04/19 countdown clock…

      Twas set to countdown at and to 11pm

      Ach well wan mair oor’s on it

    136. Cactus says:

      Hey Cameron, aye it must be the gremlins… or the ghosties 🙂

    137. Thepnr says:

      @MacMina MacAllan

      I’m not sure if that was your first post but it was certainly a good one. Nice to hear new voices here on Wings, so thanks.

    138. Cactus says:

      Hey Thepnr, Brexit is trying to gaslight me

      Scotland needs new choices

      This year

    139. Jim McIntosh says:

      Initially looking at the results I was depressed, but assuming we leave the EU the 30% that voted “in the UK and in the EU” have a decision to make. With the age demographics I see us getting 40% of that vote so 12% overall.

      We should also pick up 50% of the “Indy Scotland outside the EU” as that option will also most likely disappear.

      So that gives an
      Indy vote of 32% + 12% + 4% = 48%.
      Unionist vote of 22% + 18% + 4% = 44%
      Undecided = 8%.

      So not too depressing after all.

    140. Jockanese Wind Talker says:

      Aye @MacMina MacAllan as per Thepnr welcome BTL.

      I believe Indy Ref 2 needs to focus on iScotland vs Westminster controlled UK:

      Pensions

      Not allowing the SNHS to be sold to the Americans

      Protecting Scotlands world renowned food and drinks industries

      Getting the going rate for suppling electric (rather than paying SE biased the grid connection charge)

      Having full control of all fiscal levers (including taxing Amazon, Google, BP, She’ll etc. properly rather than giving rebates)

      Lots more examples exist (IndyPosterBoy has great visuals) but the BritNats will only have their already discounted lies and threats.

    141. CameronB Brodie says:

      I’m nicely saddled on my “high horse” now, so I’ll expect Reluctant Nationalist to make an appearance soon. 😉

      Brexit and the Moral Vision of Nationhood

      Conservatism Versus Progressivism

      The conflict here is largely a conflict between conservatism and progressivism. Damon Linker writes:

      Whether or not it’s expressed in explicitly theological terms, progressivism holds out a very specific moral vision of the future. It will be a world beyond particular attachments, beyond ethnic or linguistic or racial or religious or national forms of solidarity. In their place will be the only acceptable form of solidarity: humanitarian universalism.

      And this means that the progressive future will even result in the end of politics itself — at least if politics is understood as encompassing more than the jostling of interest groups, bureaucratic administration, and the management of government benefits. Politics in that narrow sense will remain. But politics in Aristotle’s sense — this particular community in this place with this history and heritage, determining its own character for itself, deciding who is and who is not a citizen, who will rule, and in the name of which vision of the good life — that existential form of politics will cease to exist in the progressive future.

      https://mereorthodoxy.com/political-social-earthquake-brexit-future-britain/

    142. Cactus says:

      Hey Wingers, ah’ve worked it out and it appears that the countdown clock software is not adjusted for the clocks going backwards or forwards seasonly

      That’s a bit of an obvious oversight like!

      Wha’s like time?

    143. CameronB Brodie says:

      Evening Cactus, here’s one with young dudes like yourself in mind.

      Intergenerational Justice and Generational Sovereignty in Light of Brexit Vote and of Climate Change [Audio]
      https://podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/intergenerational-justice-generational-sovereignty/id279428154?i=1000433737679

    144. CameronB Brodie says:

      That last link was to a LSE: Public lectures and event.

    145. CameronB Brodie says:

      Scotland’s economy needs immigration but (white) British nationalism and opposition to immigration has brought us the full-English Brexit. Scotland must defend its’ democracy better and give racism the boot in the nads it deserves. The “old-fashioned” personality offers no hope for future Scots.

      British Social Attitudes 34

      Immigration
      How attitudes in the UK compare with Europe

      In the years leading up to the Brexit vote we see a stark and growing divide in people’s views on the economic impact of immigration between the young degree-educated and older school-leavers. Across Europe young graduates are more likely than older school-leavers to say immigration is good for the economy, and this divide is biggest in the UK.

      http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/media/39196/bsa34_full-report_fin.pdf

    146. Kangaroo says:

      That cohort of 30% wanting UK and EU is a concern. We know that is not probable, so why would they think it is ?

      If we hold indyref before 31 Oct then these voters may vote No believing it will result in No Remain. This is a big problem. Hells bells perhaps we need to wait some more.

    147. CameronB Brodie says:

      This is what you get if you mix some social and democratic theories together. 🙂

      Intergenerational Justice of What: Welfare, Resources or Capabilities?

      ABSTRACT
      An important aspect of intergenerational justice concerns the specification of a ‘currency of advantage’ that can be used to evaluate distributive outcomes across time. Environmental theorists have introduced several innovative currencies of justice in recent years, such as ecological space and critical natural capital. However they have often
      downplayed the application of established currencies (such as welfare, resources or capabilities) to issues of futurity.

      After exploring the merits of a number of rival currencies, it is argued that the currency of ‘capabilities to function’ provides a promising basis for a theory of justice that takes seriously the rights and duties of intergenerational justice.

      https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/pais/people/page/publications/fenp_a_225082_o.pdf

      Governance for Future Generations: A Global Review of the
      Implementation of Intergenerational Equity

      https://dspace.library.uu.nl/bitstream/handle/1874/361333/E_Dirth_5786851_Thesis.pdf?sequence=2&isAllowed=y

      A Capability Approach to Intergenerational Justice? Examining the Potential of Amartya Sen’s Ethics with Regard to Intergenerational Issues
      https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19452829.2014.899563

      HANDBOOK OF INTERGENERATIONAL JUSTICE
      https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Joerg_Tremmel2/publication/298455096_Handbook_of_intergenerational_justice/links/575a910508aec91374a5f31c/Handbook-of-intergenerational-justice.pdf

    148. Dr Jim says:

      Fortunately voting for stuff is a lot more simple than pollsters asking a menu load of questions designed to produce even more complicated results in order to do nothing more than analyse a menu load of results proving absolutely nothing but giving the pollsters a cushy job telling us all what we want and more often what we don’t want, creating even more mindless confusion to the voter who under real circumstances would never ever be asked by any political party to consider because punters are basically short attention spanned creatures who can’t make head nor tale of it all after the first ten minutes

      Voting is simple, do you want the bad people or the nice people and it’s all the political parties are selling, good or bad, because that’s what they’re telling you the other guys are

      People like us on WOS and other places don’t count, we’re geeks or we wouldn’t be here, most people aren’t geeks, they know nothing, or as we say in the music business they only know what they think they like, that doesn’t mean they know what’s good

      All my life people who couldn’t play any instrument at all would approach me and say things like, do you mind constructive criticism, and the answer is always the same, not if you don’t play a musical instrument because you wouldn’t know how to criticise something you are unable to understand, because I’m cheeky like that, but do it nicely

      Politics is much the same, so the question is do you like me or do you not, and that’s the sell, including one core message because it’s all you need and it’s all you should be selling, all the rest is stuff and unneccesary noise

      Remember when they used to sell cars by filling your head with stats about zero to sixty in so many seconds, or how much torque or BHP it had, that stuff’s only for geeky top gear people now, the car sell now is, how does it make you feel, with adverts of satified faces looking comfortable driving their *dream*

      Sell the dream

    149. CameronB Brodie says:

      A Moral Democracy is a nice dream.

      STRENGTHENING THE CAPABILITY APPROACH:
      THE FOUNDATIONS OF THE CAPABILITY APPROACH, WITH INSIGHTS
      FROM TWO CHALLENGES

      Abstract

      The Capability Approach was initially developed by Nobel laureate Amartya Sen, with the first basic articulation presented in his 1979 ‘Equality of What?’ Tanner Lecture. Since then, the approach has gained a huge amount of attention as a conceptual framework which offers a clear and insightful way to measure well-being and development. Most recently, the approach has been refined and extended by Martha Nussbaum to issues of disability, nationality, and species membership in political philosophy.

      This project is about the foundations of the capability approach. More specifically, this project asks whether we can, and whether there are good reasons to, strengthen those foundations. The conclusions drawn here are that we ought to think seriously about the way that the capability approach develops as a theory that responds to real world challenges and change. More importantly, this project contends – in light of the challenges of future people and indigenous peoples – that there is good reason to think of new ways to ground the approach. This project takes up this challenge and grounds the approach in a modified version of Tim Mulgan’s approach to well-being. This project demonstrates that this alternative enriches the capability approach by providing us with a way of making sense of important problems, and with options for moving forward.

      Overall, this project asks important questions about how the capability approach could evolve based on challenges that remain relatively under-explored in the current literature. This project contributes to this literature by demonstrating that we can and ought to strengthen the capability approach and its ability to understand, take on board, and resolve these challenges.

      https://research-repository.st-andrews.ac.uk/bitstream/10023/1902/3/KrushilWatenePhDThesis.pdf

    150. CameronB Brodie says:

      The nostalgic character of contemporary British nationalism undermines rational moral thought. Subsequently, Scotland’s electorate are at risk of serious moral harm if Scotland is dragged out of the EU. Westminster is determined to excluding Scotland from decisions that will shape Scotland’s future, so all we can do is sit back and watch as England’s structural cultural chauvinism tears the yoonyawn to bits. Then we need to act correctly and at the correct time.

      Democracy for the Future: A Conceptual Framework to Assess Institutional Reform

      Abstract:
      There seem to be good reasons that democratic institutions must be reformed in order to minimize the danger of unsustainable policy decisions infringing upon duties of intergenerational justice. This is why there exist a number of different proposals of how to reform democratic states in order to foster their duties towards the future. However, the debate lacks a systematic assessment of these suggested reforms within a coherent theoretical and normative framework.

      This paper aims at developing such a framework. We suggest two conceptual dimensions defining the spectrum of different justifiable institutional reforms: the relation between democracy and justice as one dimension and the conditions
      considered relevant for viewing democracies as responsible collective agents as the other. Depending on how we understand this relation and these conditions, it is possible to substantiate a set of types of institutional reforms that will promote democracies’ capacities to comply with their responsibilities towards the future.

      https://www.zora.uzh.ch/129604/1/Wallimann-Helmer_et_al__FINAL_UncorrectedProof.pdf

    151. Liz g says:

      Dr Jim @ 12.58
      Eh, well just be a wee bit careful there selling that dream Dr Jim…
      I can remember cars being sold because they draped a half nakid woman over them???
      So unless you guy’s are volunteering to “drape” for Indy ye might want tae rethink that!!! 🙂

    152. Confused says:

      i have just went down the contributors page on bella doing the
      good guy / wank
      – thing for a wee joke

      i am thinking of doing the same for wings BTL bods – its funny how, most of the good people evaporate, but the irritants just keep going (- why would you do that) – its gotten boring; the REVS posts are referencing Beckett FFS – desperate …

      – everyone knows the situation
      – everything has been talked about, repeatedly
      we all know the score

      SNP/SG/Nikki – its coming to a head …

      stop trying to fix a situation for people who do not want it fixed and made it freely, by choice

      “step away from the vehicle” – fuck the peoples vote – the only peoples vote the SNP/SG should worry about is indyref2

      fuck england if it burns – we are not in charge of the fire extinguisher (I have been all over the place reading what the english think … its delusional and scary – so screw them – they wont drag us down)

      stop allowing the most incompetent tory govt in history to repeatedly postpone the inevitable hard brexit
      just call it – preferably the day before brexit, for maximal chaos
      PISS OR GET OFF THE POT – WE ARE NOT WAITING
      – make these idiots fight on two fronts

      make the campaign all about MONEY – and play up the fear factor
      – scare the grannies, if you need to – they should be scared
      – Scotland will be LOOTED even worse than it ever was to shore up the economic disaster they have brought upon themselves
      – a country with no manufacturing
      – no natural resources
      – a massive trade imbalance
      – that cannot feed or power itself
      – that survives on a lot of dubious funny money shenanigans that can dry up in an instant
      – but that bends to the will of a nutbag populace who believe the “scots get tons of free gibs” – all “paid for by england”

      recognise that the UK outside of Scotland is simply a collection of enemies, and theres a fair few inside it too
      – any more accommodation of england, its govt, its people ( the little englanders AND the guardian readers) is “aiding the enemy during wartime”

    153. mr thms says:

      Kangaroo @ 12:24 am

      “That cohort of 30% wanting UK and EU is a concern. We know that is not probable, so why would they think it is ?”

      I am wondering if those polled want Scotland to remain in the union because they perceive Scotland gains from the block grant it receives?

      However, since the introduction of the Scotland Act 2016, the amount Scotland receives from the block grant has reduced by 40% because of the devolution of more revenue raising powers and the devolution of disability benefits.

      The block grant will reduce again (by another 20%?) in 2020 when 10% of the VAT raised in Scotland during 2019/20 is allocated.

      If the trend is to have more reductions in the block grant of 20% a year (due to more reserved powers being devolved) then by 2022/23 the block grant would come to an end.

    154. Kangaroo says:

      Confused @ 2:26am

      Agreed wholeheartedly. Indeed I argued at Xmas the tactic of holding indyref on 29 Mar as that would be the date of Maximum Pressure, so 31st October would be the equivalent except, now we could have a GE or a People’s Vote to contend with before that, not to mention the possibility of a Tory leadership contest, if TM resigns. Complicates matters somewhat. Then of course we also have the voters who might vote No thinking they will also be in the EU and the possibility that the EU will offer another extension, thus reducing the pressure.

      What would Sun Tzu do NOW?
      The troops are restless and its ideal campaigning time, so get some skirmishing practice in and the EU elections are around the corner.
      Seems like a good idea to me, get going on the EU elections and in the process try and educate the “I want to be in the UK and EU cohort”.

    155. Kangaroo says:

      Mr thms @ 3:15am

      Not sure that the block grant is uppermost in anyone’s mind, so I doubt that is a significant factor. However it is worth keeping in mind when doorknocking on the campaign trail.

    156. robertknight says:

      The first sample figures suggest both the ‘Scotland in UK’ options combined account for 52% but the ‘Independent Scotland’ options combined account for only 40%. The remainder being DK. Lies, damned lies and statistics being borne in mind.

      However, it appears that the situation needs to get a lot worse before getting any better, if you know what I mean.

    157. Robert Louis says:

      Yet again it needs stated, that most folk do NOT pay much heed to political events, unless they need to. As a result, London could do many horrible things to Scotland and most of the population might not even notice. That is reality.

      In that context, it makes no sense to keep hanging on polling information in the way that is being done. I do not doubt that when Theresa the liar called the general election she had ‘polling information’ which suggested she could increase her majority. It didn’t turn out like that. Once the campaign started, folks who pay no heed most of the time, started getting some information, and clearly in some cases changed their minds.

      We really must remember, that when Alex Salmond called the first indyref, the polls for indy were around 28-35% YES, but that shifted during the campaign. So, holding a referendum should not be held up until their is a pro indy majority in polling information, since that will change once the campaign starts.

      If poll were showing only say, 10% in favour of indy, then even I wouldn’t think it a good idea, but that is not where we are. In fact, we are in an immensely strong position to start an indyref campaign, but things only kick off when the referendum is actually called.

      With reference to earlier comments, the idea that we can sit and wait for things to get so awful with brexit, that their is a pro indy majority in the polls, without a referendum being called is just daft. It truly would be like waiting for godot.

    158. Robert Louis says:

      yesindyref2 at 0647pm,

      Yes, an interesting idea.

      The fact is though, that in my opinion, the only thing which would diminish SNP support, would be a failure to call a referendum in the current circumstances. As we saw with indyref1, we lost the vote, but not the war. The next battle awaits. The referendum needs called.

      The people who want independence are not going away – a point which the neanderthal British unionists who are so enthralled with English rule need to get used to..

    159. Breeks says:

      If Nicola needs a stalking horse to force the pace on IndyRef2, use Scotland’s Constitutional argument, and the prospect of a hard Indy delivered abruptly by a Court judgement, or a Soft Indy with Withdrawal Agreement delivered by a democratic vote and constructive negotiation.

      Pick our battlefield:- Where OUR Sovereignty determines the legitimacy of our IndyRef, not the Palace of Westminster which will attempt to delegitimise the vote by their refusal to agree a Section 30.

      Scotland’s future can be forged inside our own Borders. We need no permission, consent or acquiescence from Westminster, but me MUST stand resolute behind our Constitutional Sovereignty and never compromise an inch on it’s essential principle.

    160. Liz g says:

      Re.. Sun Tzu..
      I’m not saying you Kangaroo… But there’s been some reference to Sun Tzu before… So just as an FYI!
      Sun Tzu is not a person.I
      It’s…
      The translation of the title “The Art of War”.

      Jist sayin,so we all read the comments referencing it right! 🙂

    161. Liz g says:

      Check me correcting everybody…and messing it up!!!
      The Art of War is the English translation of Sun Tzu..
      Which is a book!

    162. Nana says:

      Links

      https://www.alynsmith.eu/scotland_in_europe_update_12th_april_2019

      Ian Blackford MP (pictured) pressed Theresa May to heed the message of the EU Council President Donald Tusk to not waste any more time, and renewed the SNP’s calls to use the extension for a second EU referendum – with the option to remain on the ballot paper – as a means of finally ending the Brexit impasse
      http://archive.fo/W4oId

      https://ukandeu.ac.uk/towards-a-devolution-backstop/.

      https://www.holyrood.com/articles/news/five-million-trees-be-planted-across-central-belt-coal-mining-communities

    163. Nana says:

      https://universalcreditsuffer.com/2019/04/05/dwp-paid-315000-for-single-gogglebox-advert/

      Brexit: eyes wide shut
      http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=87205

      https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/presenters/james-obrien/no-deal-better-than-bad-deal-most-mindless-gambit/

      16 MPs claiming cash to rent London homes – while letting out their own
      Tory Liam Fox is one of 16 involved.
      He has claimed £150,000 for a flat since 2012 but earns at least £10,000 a year renting his home, papers show.
      http://archive.is/XneJR

    164. Nana says:

      Steve Peers analysis of Assange extradtion
      https://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2019/04/12/playing-for-time-how-brexit-could-help-assange-beat-the-extr

      Article from 2011 detailing atrocity by US forces in Iraq
      https://amp.mcclatchydc.com/news/special-reports/article24696685.html

      “It’s a warning from history….if Julian Assange and @Wikileaks can be prosecuted, so can the editors of those newspapers that carried Wikileaks’ work. This is an ASSAULT ON JOURNALISM”
      https://twitter.com/Underground_RT/status/1116690280437157888

      https://www.democracynow.org/2019/4/12/chomsky_arrest_of_assange_is_scandalous

    165. Nana says:

      ICC rejects request to investigate war crimes in Afghanistan
      http://archive.fo/OdJcq

      https://www.army.mod.uk/who-we-are/formations-divisions-brigades/force-troops-command/77-brigade/

      The Home Office had kept the file closed despite being more than 30 years old, and even withheld it from the National Archives.
      http://www.foiacentre.com/news-Libyan-embassy-siege-Home-Office-debrief.html

      WATCH as the Qataris are shown the growing international scandal of our insane UK government gambling our future on the decision of just 635,000 people in a referendum whose result was obtained by groups already found guilty of cheating.
      https://twitter.com/brexit_sham/status/1116684668026413057

    166. CameronB Brodie says:

      Given Brexit will enable the Tories to undertake further privatisation of Britain’s civil infrastructure, the public really need to be concerned that Britain’s future business model will set out to deliberately undermine the “Precautionary Principle”. Tories are even worse at inter-generational ethics than they are at social ethics. Tories are thick and evil.

      The Role of the Judiciary in Promoting Sustainable Development:
      The Experience of Asia and the Pacific

      http://www.lec.justice.nsw.gov.au/Documents/preston_the%20role%20of%20the%20judiciary%20in%20promoting%20sustainable%20development.pdf

      The Theoretical Foundations of Intergenerational Ecological Justice:
      An Overview

      commonslawproject.org/sites/default/files/weston_-_the_theoretical_foundations_of_intergenerational_ecological_justice.pdf

      Justice Between Generations: Investigating a Sufficientarian Approach
      https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/17449620600991960

      Protecting the Rights of Future Generations
      are constitutional mechanisms an answer?

      https://ojs.victoria.ac.nz/pq/article/download/4536/4024

    167. Brian Doonthetoon says:

      Hi Nana at 8:50 am.

      You linked to,
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-12/brexit-exposes-painful-disconnect-between-england-and-britain

      A fine read! More people dan sarf should read it. Probably make them a tad uncomfortable.

    168. Breeks says:


      Liz g says:
      13 April, 2019 at 8:12 am

      Sun Tzu is not a person….

      I think you’re wrong there Liz. Sun Tzu was a Chinese General and military strategist of Zhou Dynasty circa 500BC.

    169. Nana says:

      Morning Brian, it’s a damn fine piece of writing and should be read out from every pulpit ‘dan sarf’ and especially in Theresa’s church.

      She’s a committed christian, don’t ya know. At least that’s what she keeps telling herself 🙂

      Reading the article reminded me of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds by Charles MacKay

      “In reading The History of Nations, we find that, like individuals, they have their whims and their peculiarities, their seasons of excitement and recklessness, when they care not what they do. We find that whole communities suddenly fix their minds upon one object and go mad in its pursuit; that millions of people become simultaneously impressed with one delusion, and run after it, till their attention is caught by some new folly more captivating than the first.”

    170. Nana says:

      Fidelma Cook has a good article in the herald
      http://archive.is/Ib1z9

    171. Legerwood says:

      Nana @ 10.08am

      Tulip mania in Holland in the 17th century would be an example of the situation McKay describes in the extract you quoted.

    172. Kangaroo says:

      Lizg

      What Breeks said @9:54am is correct.

    173. Nana says:

      Morning Legerwood

      That’s a very good example of ‘fashion craze’

      My hubby says I have a ‘collecting craze’ due to all the fabulous things I collect. He calls it junk!!

    174. CameronB Brodie says:

      I’m not sure what Sun Tzu would advise but I know Brexitania is unlikely to offer any sustainable hope for Scotland’s future. Failure to resist the New Right’s Brexit coup will have significant ramifications for the global world poor. If Scots fail to defend the rule of law and human rights, who will?

      Global Risks Report 2017
      Part 1 – Global Risks 2017

      http://reports.weforum.org/global-risks-2017/part-1-global-risks-2017/

      Sustainable quality of life
      Conceptual analysis for a policy-relevant empirical specification

      https://www.zora.uzh.ch/129604/1/Wallimann-Helmer_et_al__FINAL_UncorrectedProof.pdf

      The multiple meanings of justice in the context of the transition to a low carbon economy
      https://www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/resources/publication-pdfs/the-multiple-meanings-of-justice-in-the-context-of.pdf

      An Introduction to the Human Development and Capability Approach
      https://idl-bnc-idrc.dspacedirect.org/bitstream/handle/10625/40248/IDL-40248.pdf

    175. McDuff says:

      Thepner 4.24

      Ottomanboi is absolutely right in what he says, I and others have long felt that Nicola Sturgeon has made the case for independence solely on leaving the EU.
      Independence is about much much more, and if we end up with a settlement staying in the EU customs union where do we go from there.
      I would like to hear more from the SNP about the new oil fields that are constantly being discovered in Scottish waters and the huge profits that we never see. The McCrone reprt, the theft by England of a section of our waters, the broken promises of the Vow.
      And given the huge resources of this country why hasn’t there been a detailed financial plan outlining our viability and one that the public can understand. Why can`t they be more publically vocal and produce details of small countries that are successful and use by way of comparison as the Rev has done.
      And where, is the passion.

    176. CameronB Brodie says:

      The SNP are a political party. Political parties need to balance different needs and interests in order to gain support for their policies. Political parties are rarely fully abreast of legal, moral, scientific research.

      Political Philosophy
      http://oxfordre.com/politics/browse?t0=ORE_POL%3AREFPOL012

    177. CameronB Brodie says:

      That would have read better as, political parties are rarely fully abreast of scientific research in to the legal and moral justification of authority.

      Living in dignity in the 21st century
      Poverty and inequality in societies of human rights: the paradox of democracies

      https://www.coe.int/t/dg3/socialpolicies/socialcohesiondev/source/GuideLivingDignity.pdf

    178. Robert J. Sutherland says:

      Derick fae Yell @ 15:16 (12.Apr),

      Thank you for your enquiry as to my well-being, and I’m happy to say that my leetle grey cells at least are functioning very well. =laugh=

      As to your EEA/EFTA thing, we see Leavers reacting allergically against any such kind of “rule-taking”, whereas there is a steady move of popular opinion in Scotland towards Remain, and the SNP strengthening its public resolution to protect Scotland’s clear preference and use it purposefully. But I guess there’s always going to be a contrarian trying to swim solo against the prevailing current.

      At least though you have given me an inkling of why the “revolutionaries” of the Bella mob want to delay an indyref until 2022 or 2029 or whatever. That has always puzzled me. Never mind setting the heather on fire and inspiring folk of the historical rightness of the cause, just wait long enough for sufficient old folk to expire and it’s job done. For free.

      (And never mind all the social damage what will be caused by an unleashed and unmitigatable Tory UKGov in the meantime, and another lost generation of our kids.)

      Here we have a situation where the entire political arrangement is more fluid than it has ever been in living memory, one that is splitting mainstream parties asunder and producing unprecedented changes in party allegiance across the spectrum, and you dismiss this golden opportunity as mere “froth”? Now why would anyone want to dampen down a situation so pregnant with possibilities as casually as that?

      There’s none so blind as those who will not see, and so it would seem with your doctrinaire EU antagonism. A mini-me Corbyn, you just want it done and dusted, whatever the cost, provided only that someone else gets the blame. Even if the cost to us is a lost opportunity for independence that will not come our way again.

    179. CameronB Brodie says:

      I do think their insistence that Scotland will not be dragged from the EU, indicates the SNP have a firmer grasp of legal morality than any other political party represented in Scotland by an accounting unit.

      Draft Horizon 2020 Work Programme 2016-2017
      in the area of Europe in a changing world – inclusive, innovative and reflective Societies

      https://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/sites/horizon2020/files/13.%20SC6_2016-2017_pre-publication.pdf

    180. Jack Murphy says:

      Nana said at 10:12 am today:

      “Fidelma Cook has a good article in the herald
      http://archive.is/Ib1z9

      Headline:

      ‘The UK is damned whatever is to come. But Scotland isn’t’.

      Thankyou Nana.

    181. Jim Watson says:

      robbo says:
      12 April, 2019 at 12:37 pm

      Farage has formed his party- BREXIT party- says what means -end of story.

      Bigoted
      Racists
      Extremely
      Xenophobic
      Ignorant
      Twats

      Probably
      All
      Renegade
      Tory
      Yesterdayspeople

    182. yesindyref2 says:

      Fair point actually, little about oil from the SG.

      https://www2.gov.scot/Topics/Statistics/Browse/Economy/oilgas1718

      and plenty of news here:

      https://news.gov.scot/

      but not much about oil, or the oil finds.

    183. GaryMc says:

      So … women are risk averse, old folk are feart and Gers fans love the queen. It’s up to young, male, Celtic fans to say the day. Hail hail!



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