Moving on up
By now you may have already seen the headline numbers for our latest Panelbase poll. We hope you don’t mind that we gave the Sunday Times a couple of hours’ lead time in return for some major coverage, but we’ve always said that at this stage the headline numbers are the least interesting findings.
(That’s why our first poll didn’t even bother asking the referendum question.)
We’re actually still waiting on the final full tables for the other 10 questions – we should have them tomorrow – so for now let’s just have a dig around in the top line.
NB The +/- figures below are in comparison to our last poll, in October 2013. As ever, due to rounding all figures may not necessarily add up to exactly 100%
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
Yes: 41% (+4)
No: 46% (+1)
Don’t Know: 14% (-3)
And with don’t-knows excluded:
Yes: 47%
No: 53%
That 41% is – with the exception of a single poll in August 2013 that was criticised for preceding the Yes/No question with two arguably leading ones – the highest Yes figure ever recorded for the actual referendum question.
While it shows increases for both camps, the Yes one has made up three points on the No side. Were the remaining 14% of Don’t Knows to split 2:1 for Yes, the final result would be a nailbiting 50.3% Yes, 49.7% No.
With the DKs excluded, the figures come out at Y47 N53, a position that still requires just a 3% swing for Yes in the last six months of the campaign.
There are other striking findings too.
Among men, Yes now leads by a healthy 9% (Y48 N39 DK13). The news isn’t so good on the other side of the gender divide, with No 18% ahead among women (Y34 N52 DK 14). However, both of these stats do still represent progress for Yes – last time around the corresponding numbers were 4% and 20% respectively.
The real weak spot in the Yes ranks is specifically women aged 16-34. The gap there is a vast 36% (26 vs 62), compared to just 6% among 35-54 women, and 17% among women aged 55 and over. On the other hand, the 16-34 vote among men is Yes’s strongest suit, with a thumping 27% advantage. The 55+ group is now the only male one where No still leads (by 13 points, with Yes 14 points ahead among 35-54s).
(Our last poll had different age groupings so can’t be directly compared, though it did also suggest that the youngest voters, of both sexes, were the most inclined to No.)
Were we to idly speculate on the reason for such a huge discrepancy between the age groups, we might note that the youngest women are the ones least likely to have children or grandchildren, and therefore less easily swayed by things like the Scottish Government’s childcare pledge. But we don’t know.
Moving onto party loyalty, there are some significant Yes gains too. 27% of the Labour voters in our sample said they’d be voting Yes, compared to just 19% last time. Lib Dem Yeses were unchanged at 17%, but the most spectacular change was among Conservatives – 12% now say they’ll vote Yes, against just 1% five months ago.
The number of Tory undecideds was almost the same, so that’s a straight 5.5% swing from No to Yes, and links up intriguingly with the surprise findings of a recent survey on Conservative Home. (Though it should be noted that that wasn’t a scientific poll.)
Finally, the numbers across different social grades are fascinating and surprising. No leads in both – by 8% among ABC1 voters and 2% among C2DE voters. Last October the figures showed a huge 24-point No lead in ABC1 but a 6-point Yes lead in C2DE.
That means there’s been a huge 8% swing to Yes among the better-off, but also a 4% swing to No among poorer voters – the exact opposite of what you might expect after months of dire warnings about independence from billionaire executives and a lot of grassroots work in deprived areas by left-wing groups.
People are contrary. It never hurts to remember that.
Now within the margin of error. The NO camp will be shitting themselves. They are losing this referendum.
I think most of the 4% swing to No amongst less well off folk is probably due to standard of error.
Good results, look forward to the rest of the data tomorrow. Looks like a day reading the Sunday Times and Sunday Herald, or half a day as we don’t get Sunday papers until near lunchtime.
“Good results, look forward to the rest of the data tomorrow.”
Tomorrow means tomorrow, ie Monday. We won’t get the tables until then, then we have to analyse, write them up, and get the posts approved by Panelbase to make sure we haven’t misinterpreted anything. Don’t expect anything until Monday afternoon at the earliest.
I’m not sure how to put this to get round some filter Stu seems to have on, but happy 6th April everyone. You’ll maybe have to look it up.
This moderation trap is weird. If I’m never getting approved until the conversation has moved on past me, how will I ever manage to point out to the punters that this is Scotland Day, 6th April, Declaration of Arbroath and all that.
Auspicious, or what? Have a good one.
these figures are very encouraging, but as many have said, now is the time to increase efforts to close the gap and overhaul the no lead. I am in a long term strategy to change 3 no voters and this will hopefully help in that endeavour. Thanks again rev for your continued efforts for the cause.
Uplifting.
Keen to see the breakdown of figures, but keener to see the Yes for community common sense permanently ahead by a large margin.
Till Monday …
onwards and upwards. Keep up the good work Stu.
Exciting stuff. Now get yourself to bed for a well earned rest Rev 🙂
Interesting and intriguing to see, based on our canvassing results (was out this afternoon, dreadful weather!!), I’d agree with the older voters being less-inclined to say YES at the moment. Pension fears are still talked of, despite an arguably much more certain future under YES than no for those of retirement age…
Again, I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again, well done Stuart. You’ve shown far more leadership on the referendum than any of the “traditional” media sources in Scotland. Wish we could get you in print as a newspaper (for those that haven’t quite made the lap to the internet)…
Thanks Morag. I couldn’t find anything relevant
So, no longer any doubt that #ProjectFear isn’t and won’t work with the Scottish public, especially after what was essentially a wide spread mockery of the tactic by the MSM in their choice of April Fools stories.
Now however, what will Better Together and the UK Gov try next? If not stick, then carrot? No doubt they have already budgeted for a range of tactical retreat positions where more power and budget is given to Scots, but still keeping a hold on us and the oil revenue. Will they start experimenting to see how much of a sweetener it’ll take to keep us … and if they do how can they possibly square that with the austerity and tone of the bullshit they’ve been feeding rUK about subsidy junky Scots?
The other option is a mysterious car crash, or perhaps a scandal, or..? Let’s all keep our wits about us … Hmm.
Hmmm!! I wonder if these results (passed on perhaps via someone on the Sunday Times) might have led to the sudden attack on the site. Otherwise, it does seem a tad coincidental – n’est pas?
The majority of women are not against Independence, they are genuinely not engaged with the debate yet.
A common reply amongst women when you mention the referendum is,
“when is it again?”
Saw the Panelbase poll getting a brief mention on Sky News paper review. Surprise surprise one of the *ahem* reviewers was really surprised that we Scots would even be considering voting YES. According to him he thought George Osborne’s “you can never use the pound in an independent Scotland” was all that was needed to ensure a thumping NO victory. What a Muppet!
What is it with all those London centric Muppets who go on to these ‘paper review’ programmes whenever the independence referendum gets mentioned?
Do none of these *ahem* reviewers understand the basic concept of being Scots.?
Do they not understand the simplest of basics that WE do not take kindly to being told by Millionaire Bullington Boys Club members that we can NOT do something?
Even now after gawd knows how many ‘reviews’ of newspaper articles about Scottish independence they STILL assume that we are too wee, too poor and too stupid to do anything for ourselves. They do not say it but it is perfectly clear that is indeed what they are thinking!
I have to say the mood is changing in the nation. When I hear folk at my work speaking now compared to a year ago it`s incredible how peoples views have shifted. I say at my work because One close work mate all this time has been saying he`d vote YES but he didn`t think it would happen. Only yesterday he said he thought it was now going to happen for sure and this is from someone who has a busy work and family life with his disabled daughter. I don`t think he visits many sites like this but he does seem to quite like social media, facebook and twitter so maybe he is seeing stuff on there. New media and the grassroots campaign will win in the end but i`d like to see a poll soon with YES in the lead. Lets do this!
Wow. Things just keep getting better and better.
At this point, I imagine the positive case for the Union as Homer’s prize pig in “Lisa the Vegetarian”, with Alistair Darling the hapless Simpson hoping beyond hope that it can be salvaged:
(Ian Taylor donation scandal)
“It’s just a little dirty, it’s still good, it’s still good!”
(Daily Mail attempted smear of cybernats backfires spectacularly when Wings’ viewing figures explode)
“It’s just a little slimy, it’s still good, it’s still good!”
(Currency plot falls apart, revealing the No campaign’s vaunted trump card to be a gigantic bluff, same day as Wings poll shows Yes & No to be neck-and-neck)
“It’s just a little airborne, it’s still good, it’s still good!”
“It’s gone!”
“I know!”
(head office of The Scotsman)
Kenny Farquharson: You know, Macnab, I think I’ll start a neutrality policy on the referendum. When pigs fly!
[both Farquharson and Macnab start laughing, but then the BT pig flies by their window]
Macnab: Will you be starting now, sir?
Farquharson: Hmm… no, I’d still prefer not.
Two other things. Definite shift in tone of Sunday Herald and I have to wonder which publication will blink next? Also, can’t be too far off the first defections of MSPs from Labour to, perhaps, Labour for Indy. The same ‘troughing’ genetic traits that have made them so disliked by many of us will also force some of them over the line as they try to preserve their careers and save their arses if/when the No vote collapses as I believe it will.
All of this ‘normalises’ Yes further, allows ‘don’t know’ to be less afraid of learning more about consequences and benefits of Yes.
“The avalanche has started. It’s too late for the pebbles to vote” – Ambassador Kosh
Thanks for the birthday wishes Morag. 😛
Don’t understand the swing to no amongst the poorer voters,have they been scaremongered?
It’s time to get those YES badges on ALL your jackets and get the YES wristbands on. They work a treat and are a great conversation starter.
C’mon if you’ve got it, flaunt it.
And we’ve definitely got it.
“The avalanche has started. It’s too late for the pebbles to vote” – Ambassador Kosh
Wins thread.
the most spectacular change was among Conservatives – 12% now say they’ll vote Yes, against just 1% five months ago.
Now you understand why I’ve being harping-on about not tarring us all with the same brush! Seems like some of the right wing have been listening to me!! 🙂
We have to be careful not to become complacent. There will be direct and false-flag attacks. If Wings is experiencing difficulties on the website, that means the British state has only just started. Cheltenham is lovely at this time of year, I’ve heard. One thing is certain, Scotland will never be the same again. The energy unleashed by Yes won’t just dissipate and we won’t go back to being a place where the likes of Johann Lamont and Margaret Curran are viewed as serious politicians. Not an attack on women – Ian Gray and the Liberal guy are useless too.
Worth remembering this, when we’re struggling to keep our heads above the tsunami of pish:
‘England’s lack of sympathy for Scotland’s particular needs seemed sometimes perverse and malicious, the triumph of a small boy who is winning a game he has himself devised…This was not a union of equal peoples. Hot tempers on both sides provoked unreasonable and ill-judged words, but the depth of English arrogance was evident in the linen debate when the Speaker told the Commons that they had ‘catcht Scotland and would keep her fast.’ John Prebble, The Lion in the North, p. 288
Aye, they ‘catcht’ us alright, and have held us down ever since. Now we’re getting out? They don’t like it.
The gimp has bolted.
I think there will be more movement to yes when there are more visible signs of it. It’s like yes supporters are afraid to put it in the window.
@msean
Don’t understand the swing to no amongst the poorer voters,have they been scaremongered?
Nah, just haven’t polled enough in my view. How many in the poorest schemes do you think are subscribed to Panelbase so as they can “vote” online?
Very few in my opinion, they are the unheard voices that will only speak when they put an X in the box.
Do none of these *ahem* reviewers understand the basic concept of being Scots.?
Arbroath, I don’t think the metropolitan intelligentsia are capable of empathising with others not cut from the same cloth. It might have something to do with cultural differences, though these big brains keep assuring us that we are all the same.
Does that make them subsidy junkie as well then, too poor, too small and too stupid to know how to look after themselves? 🙂
Why should anyone listen to them and do they get payed out of BBC license money? Grrrrrr. ;(
The movement is very significant. With over one quarter of voters who identify themselves as Labour voters now voting Yes, the Labour party strategy is in shreds. With Labour leading a Tory funded BT they are undermined from all quarters. A minimalist approach to more powers just emphasises that a politically astute leadership would understand that policy and position has to chime with voters ambitions not with the negativity of Labour’s Westminster MPs. Such internal coalitions of cobbled policy are doomed to failure. It would take a strong and determined Scottish Labour leader to recognise that imperative and they have no such person.
Victory is almost within grasp.
But my wish is for a massive Yes vote.
This can surely be achieved by a really big push in the (former) Labour heartlands.
The less well off have the most to gain from an independent Scotland and no effort should be spared in convincing them.
The next and final Yes rally has to be in Glasgow.
The polls are definitely tightening up in a major way and the Better Together campaign – and likely Westminster too – are extremely nervous about September… and they should be too, the No’s may very well ultimately prevail, but it’s going to be very far from the cakewalk they thought it would be!
As someone who leans right in his politics, it’s very easy to see why Conservatives in bonny Scotland are increasingly moving into the Yes tent; the only chance for a centre-right government in the Scottish Parliament in the future is to completely separate from Westminster and be a wholly independent Scottish party uncoupled from the toxic (as some see them) Tories south o’ the border.
This September is going to be a nail-biter right to the end methinks…
Cool. Positive progress. Needs to work harder to convince the seniors. They are very worried of repercussion to their pension.
Till today, have been persuading/explaining to senior neighbours of opportunities in the event of “YES”, but making slow encouraging progress.
Thanks Rev for your mammoth contributions.
I am just wondering what the Britnats have left if anything In their bag of dirty tricks.
All those of us who have or admin social media groups/ pages should now be pushing to get our people away from the keyboards a few hours a week and onto the streets.
Howdy friends, the stairway to independence. I see Scotland’s Future in five words.. ‘big moves in small steps’ (that’s a line from a smashing sci-fi movie, any takers?).
Cheers to all the groovy people at The Counting House on Friday night, it was a great pleasure to be in your company and the perfect catalyst for a cracking weekend!
Sorry not to sure who said these things just wanted to respond to a few post
1.the Sunday herald has been “pro indy” for a few months now right back to first of the RIC mass canvas events in Glasgow.
2.there will be no final rally and that’s straight from the horses mouth of the two largest pro yes movements. They have discussed it (seperatly) both yes Scotland and RIC feel that 20000 activists in a rally wont do anywhere near as much good as 500 knocking on doors. Not everyone agrees of course.
I understand people’s reasons for wanting a march but at the moment it ain’t on the cards.
we can win now more than ever but we continue to go out work hard I encourage everyone to join a local group and do their bit. Get out from behind the screens and hit the streets if u haven’t already.
Another Scotland is not only possible it’s now probable lets make it a reality.
We’re going to do this!
X XXX X X X
Rev, don’t know what you’re doing with these DDOS attacks, but am sure a lot of us here would be prepared to fund a professional investigation to try to expose wherever these are coming from.
Oh, its on baby. 🙂
tick tock all you labour troughers tick tock
Dances with Haggis says its time to encourage our admin and social media groups to get out on to the streets.
I agree and will personally be doing so from w/b 13th April. I have now automated all my tweets using Socialoomph – updating them once a week and tweeting them every 23 mins. This takes about one morning to do – usually a Tues. The same system is used to update for YesWestLothian and YesKippen.
I also agree that its time to get badges etc in much wider use.
I have spoken with two members of the farming community in the last week and they were both very definitely Yes. One said that if any farmer was asked and answered truthfully they would all say Yes. I wonder how many busy farmers were included in the poll.
Anyone else get the feeling the timing of that DDOS was a little coincidental?
Did the person or persons unknown who perpetrated the attack expect the Rev to be at the Counting house on Friday
and too far from Bath to control the response?
MOLE!
Most Wives, especially Scottish ones, naturally tend to have an opposing view to their significant others 🙁
We’re from Edinburgh and “enjoy” a healthy debate, but both compromise on what is best for our family 😉
link to youtube.com
I warn you in advance.Not for the faint-hearted.
Tongue firmly in cheek here.
Are you sure the 101% total in the question results are due to rounding up and not dodgy postal opinion poll voting? (lol)
Do these results mean we are even beating the dodgy labour tactics as well !!
Polls are always interesting and don’t get too enthused like Prof.John Curtis. I wonder what his appearance money is from the BBC? Just remember how wrong he was prior to the 2011 election results…! Keep up the positive work on the “don’t knows”. As Margo said, “if all the YES supporters convert just one of the “don’t knows” we win” That will be the best epitaph we can give her.
Rev –
Marr is talking Mr Darling on TV show this morning regarding polls now being ‘neck & neck’ (so will mention the Times poll Im sure; but will it be a bridge too far for Mr BBC to mention its the common folk of ‘Wings’ and others tearing BT a new passage.
Agree with others – lets hit the streets too at some point
Glasgow March ??
On another other point regarding women –
Interesting to see your poll findings identifying women remain as a problematic area for YES. Sure No side + UK machine have identified this & thats why they are going after Scot Gov childcare proposals via pet academics etc.
Guys you know how this works right ? We need to back women for independence to the hilt !
Read in the Herald, Cameron thinks the UK GE is more important than the Indy thing.
Are they starting to realise that independence is coming? 😉
As others have said lets hope for a big WoS presence at this event Yes in the Park 7th June (Strahclyde Park).
Ian Brotherhood; you up for getting Wings folk along ?
link to yesinthepark.net
Sponsor a few good indy bands ?? (Sorry)
Dick Gaughan ?
Need to keeep up momentum.
Sunday Herald reports that UK Embassy in Washington is using taxpayers money to provide Alistair Darling, a mere opposition back bencher, with support to hold anti Indy meetings in America.
The ABC over 55s are a tough nut. I’m one of them. I’m in there.
I keep wearing the badges & carrying the Yes satchel, but it’s like swimming in porridge with them.
A few successes, and always a pleasure when they come.
Full text of ST article.
(SUPPORT for Scottish independence has hit a record high with the yes and no campaigns almost neck and neck five months from the referendum, according to a new poll.
With the cross-party no campaign under pressure to sharpen up after a series of gaffes, the Panelbase results show the unionist lead among voters has been cut from more than 24 points last year to six points this weekend.
The findings by the polling company, which had been the first to identify an SNP lead ahead of Alex Salmond’s surprise landslide Scottish election win in 2011, give credence to private claims by nationalists that the yes vote could be in front by July.
The poll for the pro-independence political website Wings Over Scotland finds that when the 14% of voters who are undecided are excluded, 47% intend to vote yes and 53% no. It is the nationalists’ best rating so far this year.
It follows polls by ICM, Survation and YouGov last month that put yes on 45%, 45% and 42% respectively. While Panelbase’s results were considered more favourable to the yes side than others last year there has been convergence this year.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said the findings are “yet further evidence that the no side’s attacks …have failed to reverse the narrowing of the no lead evident since the new year”.
It is likely to spark fresh concerns among senior Conservative strategists who have warned for months that complacency in the unionist ranks could allow Salmond to pull off a victory.
As The Sunday Times disclosed in December, Lynton Crosby, the prime minister’s election guru, and Boris Johnson, the mayor of London, are among those who have voiced doubts about the campaign.
Tory critics believe that Better Together, the cross-party no campaign led by Alistair Darling, the former Labour chancellor, has been lacklustre and too negative, focusing heavily on the economic risks that an independent Scotland would face.
David Cameron has limited his campaigning role and allowed the Conservatives to take a back seat because the party is deeply unpopular north of the border with only one MP while Labour has 41 of the 59 seats.
Yesterday Cameron told delegates at the Conservative spring forum in London of his love for the “incomparable” United Kingdom as he set out what he described as a “positive vision” for preserving the union.
He hailed the shared history of Scotland and the other nations of the UK building the industrial revolution, fighting two world wars, creating the NHS and staging the Olympics — and dismissed Salmond as a “man without a plan” whose proposals for an independent Scotland were “all over the place”.
A vote in favour of independence would provoke a constitutional crisis and months of negotiations over how national assets would be divided up on either side of the border.
Last week Cameron came under pressure from worried Tory MPs to ban the 59 Scottish constituencies from taking part in the general election if Salmond wins the referendum in September.
It follows a warning from Alistair Carmichael, the Liberal Democrat Scottish secretary, that Scotland is in danger of sleepwalking into a split from Britain unless the pro-UK campaign becomes as sharp as the yes camp.
The no campaign has been hampered by gaffes. Better Together was left reeling last month when an unnamed UK minister reportedly dismissed one of the British government’s central messages on independence, that Scotland would not be allowed to share the pound with the rest of the UK.
Darling’s leadership of Better Together came into further question last week when he suggested that a shared currency might be the subject of an English referendum.
The yes campaign is also outspending Better Together, with lottery winners Chris and Colin Weir expected to confirm a second £1m donation to the nationalists’ cause later this month.
Some members of the business community have been wary about donating to the no campaign, fearing a backlash from customers and the Scottish government.
“It’s easier at the moment to come out as gay than it is to come out as a unionist,” said Rory Bremner, the Edinburgh-born impressionist.
He added that George Osborne’s threat to bar Scotland from using the pound had been “completely counterproductive”.
“The first lesson they have to understand is that Scots, and I include myself in that, won’t be told what to do,” he told Scottish Field magazine.)
On the streets these polls will be very different the yes factor is bigger.We need to watch out for the dark arts of the red flag
“I am just wondering what the Britnats have left if anything In their bag of dirty tricks.”
Two things spring to mind.
An appeal from the Queen and a fabricated terrorist attack by a non-existing Scottish terrorist group.
Sad as it seems the Project Fear negative campaign is having some effect on older voters.
I overheard a YES campaigner asking an elderly woman coming out of the main entrance at West Side Plaza Wester Hailes yesterday how she would be voting in the referendum.
“Ah’ll be voting NO” she replied “because I don’t like your man in charge.”
The YES campaigner tried to explain to her that the referendum was a vote for Scotland to govern itself and not a vote for Alex Salmond, but she wasn’t listening and walked away repeating “Ah’m voting NO because I don’t like your man in charge”.
Interesting bet available at William Hill and only Hills. “Scotland to Become Independent on March 24th 2016” @ 11/2. For the non-bettors, put on £20, get £110 profit.
Re Panelbase, is that how it works, you have to sign up to be polled? Never knew that. So how many poor folk are going to do that or even know about it?
I agree that we should all be out in the streets, but wearing badges & wristbands certainly help in everyday conversation. I ensure I am pleasant and chatty to every stranger I meet e.g. checkout operators, shop assistants etc. I am an older woman, of a group more likely to vote for the status quo.
The March for Peace rally in Glasgow yesterday, although not a Yes event as such was an excellent opportunity to display solidarity and I know of at least one convert to Yes. The speakers were brilliant.
Of course, Westminster politicians behaving badly can do nothing but good to our fight. People I meet are incensed at the expenses scandal, which will run & run…
Linda’s Back – I’ve seen that article in the Sunday Herald regarding Darlings visit to the US to talk down Scotland with the help of the UK Embassy.
What I would like to know is , who is paying for his trip, is it out of his own pocket? (doubt it), is it Better Together? or is it us, the tax payer?
Its disgraceful that Lamont spent Thursday’s FMQ’s slagging off Alex Salmond’s visit to the US, promoting Scotland and getting jobs for Scotland, while Darling is going to the US to slagg off Scotland
Well Rev, another blinder played. Another bit of free Publicity and I like others here think you and I like to think the rest of us have them on the run.
Haven’t watched Darling dearest, but I wonder how it feels to have your jaiket on a shoogle nail this morning, darling.
Re the older voters.Perhaps you should make them aware of the IFS report that says if taxes aren’t raised to 55p in the £ by 2017.Then they’ll have to stop paying pensions by 2020.
My guess is they’ll abolish the state pension age claiming it’s ageist and older people have a lot to contribute[as if they already haven’t].That way it’s a win/win for them,no more pension payouts and lots more low paid workers.
The up and coming meeting at the Scottish Affairs Committee with Osborne, Balls and Alexander should be interesting.
Will they stick to the same hard line on currency union or will it soften it a bit.
link to parliament.uk
Getting a lot of coverage on Ken MacDonald’s Headlines – brilliant!
It’s interesting that it’s the female 16-34 demographic that’s lagging behind.
I guess all the indoctrination from MTV, Reality TV and Heat/More/Cosmo magazines has worked then? You’re not a real girl unless you’re vapid and care more about shoes than anything else …
I’ll stop now before I go on an hour long feminist rant about it.
Darling stuttering and gibbering on Marr, and now looking angry when pressed on polls. Very funny.
Very interesting, indeed!
As caz-m says:
The majority of women are not against Independence, they are genuinely not engaged with the debate yet.
and to a degree, this is probably true. Politics …psychologically, is probably more of a male thing due to the perceived ‘alpha male’ image of a confident and bull-headed politician.
I know of women who say they are voting ‘No’ and when you ask them ‘why’, they just go ‘just because’. As we all know, ‘just because’ is not an answer.
This may be the main battleground throughout the summer; converting more women to the cause.
What I have noticed is that if I sit with a woman long enough, and explain it all to them, then they do come around. My wife was a huge ‘Don’t Know’, but after I began pointing out the mistakes, the lies, and what Scotland could be, she eventually realised that BT were offering no future, while even though scary (because who knows what the future holds, and yes, we can say the same about remaining in the union), she bought into the idea of a better future in an independent Scotland.
The wife has begun converting her friends and workmates, and a good few of them have turned the corner.
However, as we get closer to the Referendum date, I think a every women will engage, and when they do, I think we’ll see a huge spike in the ‘Yes’ percentages at some point.
Is anyone watching Andrew Marr, A.D. is a total plonker and a bare faced liar,as usual rubbishing the poles and defending the union.. Cant wait until the YES opinion pole gets to 60% what rubbish will he talk about then..
Darling lying on air again – (denial ?)
Cybernat, Cybernats, Cybernats – Standard Life Barrhead Travel CBI all being Bullied blah, blah, blah.
Polls are not narrowing – were gaining in some recent polls ???
Totally losing the plot gritting teeth etc; stop aksing me these questions !!!!(wife even noticing it now)
Herald front page today – clear UK gov making things up why not asking him this ???
Do the decent thing Darling – do one and fade into the background gracefully.
Snarling Darling on Marr show spinning the tale through 180degrees.
I’m a 17 year old female, and with regards to that figure for 16-34 year old women, I have to say I’m disappointed. But not entirely surprised, if people at school are anything to go by.
I’ve had two proper discussions about the referendum with groups of females in my year that consist of Nos and undecideds. In the first, one girl spent the whole time going on about how much she couldn’t stand Alex Salmond and when I tried to tell her it wasn’t about him, she came out with some weird conspiracy theory that he would turn into a dictator. She started calling Yes supporters Nazis, then another girl came and sat down and said “everyone who’s voting yes should be shot.” Hmm… who sounds like a Nazi there? Anyway, they wouldn’t listen to reason and after that I felt the need to walk away slowly and carefully (she’s kind of scary).
The second was more recent, but both were months ago now. This group weren’t quite so violent, but they still focused on Alex Salmond and how much they hated him. At least this group recognised that there would be an election in 2016, however none of them ‘trusted’ Alex Salmond with the negotiations between the referendum and independence. Instead, one of them said an interesting (and slightly disturbing) statement that the others, all but the one male Tory who was there (rest were female), agreed with: “if Gordon Brown was in charge of it [negotiations], I’d vote Yes.”
So if my school is anything to go by, and I’m seriously hoping it’s not, make your own conclusions from that.
Janine
Maybe you should use the pension angle,on young women, as well?
“Your Granny will have to prove to ATOS she has Dementia/Osteoperosis/Angina/Rheumatoid Arthritis..etc.
@Caz-M
Another interesting one will be the civil service impartiality inquiry on 13Apr.
Mr Marr has never seen Mr Darling so fired up. Sounds like the biased BBC man trying to shore up the failing NO leader.
All in all another very poor interview by Marr who shows no interest in challenging any of flippers assertions just like the Barroso interview.
Simply excellent to get the WOS poll on the front page of Sunday Times. Genius.
Rory Bremner in the ST article:
“The first lesson they have to understand is that Scots, and I include myself in that, won’t be told what to do”
I wonder if that is the major personality flaw of the Scottish Labour folk running the No campaign? They simply are used to being told what to do and following a narrow party line – even when it is obvious it has not been working for years.
Great to see the polls closing again, London must be shaking in it’s shoes.
I haven’t bought a newspaper for years, I’m seriously considering purchasing the Herald after it’s stance of recent weeks.
Darling tells Marr on BBC that this Panelbase poll is an “outlier”.
The guy is a fruitcake.
At the end of the interview, Marr compliments Darling because he hasn’t seen him look so fired up.
I wouldn’t have said Darling was fired up, more like he was going to explode.
This a defining moment for me… it neatly sums up where the ‘British Establishment’ is in the whole referendum debate…
Marr: ‘When are we going to find out about Scottish Labours new devolution proposals?’
Darling: ‘You did, two weeks ago’
@KingofDalRiata, Nation Design Engineer, Scotland
Still haven’t seen hide nor hair of the Ipsos Mori poll I took part in three weeks ago. I would guess its non-appearance is due to the fact it is in line with the latest polls showing Yes surging forward.
“Still haven’t seen hide nor hair of the Ipsos Mori poll I took part in three weeks ago. I would guess its non-appearance is due to the fact it is in line with the latest polls showing Yes surging forward.”
Have heard rumours from very grown-up sources this week about a poll commissioned by a UK trade union being withheld from publication due to a Yes lead.
The Cybernat Controller announces the results of the latest Panelbase poll at a YES gathering in Glasgow this morning:
link to i.imgur.com
‘…An appeal from the Queen and a fabricated terrorist attack by a non-existing Scottish terrorist group.’
Neither will happen.
First, the Government is the Queen’s voice. When a party wins a General Election, the future PM goes to Buckingham Palace (just as Cameron did), and asks the Queen to setup a Government in her name. Cameron is the voice of the Queen.
If the Queen suddenly makes a broadcast asking Scotland to stay, then she in MOST definitely interfering in politics. This is something she is NOT supposed to do (this is what the Glorious Revolution was about in 1688 when James VII (House of Stuart) fled from the throne and William III was placed on it. Absolute power was removed from a King or Queen, and instead passed to Parliament. A Government is setup and acts as the voice of the Queen, hence …constitutional Monarchy (the form of Government we live under). This is why this transformation of power was known as the ‘Glorious Revolution’).
For one, it could be perceived that she has lost faith in her current government, and for two, some politicians could call for a General Election as they would say that the Queen has taken matters into her own hands and cast the Government aside on this matter.
It won’t happen. The Queen knows that she will still be the Queen in Scotland. The last thing she wants to do is upset half of her subjects north of the border. That might push even more of them towards Republicanism.
As to the second point about a terrorist attack. Well …that would be an extremely dodgy thing to do. First, if such an attack was successfully carried out, then it kills the argument about ‘how safe Scotland would be in the union should there be a terrorist attack’. Secondly, if they turned around and said ‘we foiled an attack’, then everyone would most certainly be keen on hearing testimony from the attackers themselves.
Such a train of thought on doing something like this is extremely foolhardy, and could backfire on the most spectacular scale should it begin to unravel.
So, once again …it won’t happen.
The closest we are going to get to an ‘event’ (and I don’t think I was the only one who thought this the other day) was Glasgow council saying they would blow up some flats for the Commonwealth Games. I can’t help it, but I honestly believe that the Labour councillors and some politicians cooked up this idea, fully knowing, that it would lead to a backlash. The idea being, ‘hey, look at the stupid Scots. We’re going to make jackasses of ourselves in front of the World by blowing up some buildings. Yep, that’s our level of thinking. That’s how stupid we are! And just think of the real damage and sheer embarrassment we can do when we run our own country if you silly people out there vote ‘Yes’ in September. Don’t do it! We’re not really going to blow up the flats, but hey! We just wanted to sound stupid; act stupid, and make the whole country look stupid in front of the world …and oh yeah! We wanted you all to look stupid too in front of the world with us!’
That’s about as far as it will go when it comes to ‘events’ with the ‘No’ mob…
Better off Scots tend to have a social conscience.Theyre maybe happy enough with their lot,but might be troubled by what others,not too far away, have for a life.Better off Scots hear the message from billionaires,but they also know that some of Europes most deprived areas are just a stones throw away.More and more of them are deciding that its not acceptable to them.
People tend to assume the Tories decline in Scotland is all down to Thatcher.I think it’s more to do with the Tory Party,in the modern era,drifting too far away from entrenched,traditional,Scottish values to fit in with a South East of England agenda.Along with Labour.
Ehhh,correction to above post.
Public Administration Select Committee scheduled for 8/9Apr.
It is hard to get women interested in politics, (which is strange as they seem to be sthe most affected by the results of ‘politics’) and the Together groups have been pushing the ‘debate’ as if it were a General Election.
I have heard the ‘better the devil you know’ argument, however we can see we didn’t really know that devil very well, until the information became accessible through sites on the web.
I have also heard women who are just to scared to even discuss it, which is incomprehensible to me. Perhaps it is a case of, if you don.t look at it, it will just go away.
Interestingly, women on the continent seem to engage in politics much more readily than here. I won’t speculate on why that is.
@Steph
Welcome to Wings, as for your friends you’ve just got to keep plugging away. They only feel that way because of all the propaganda designed to make Alex Salmond look like a dictator.
You’ve saw it yourself, Salmond = Hitler; Mugabe ect.
Don’t worry too much, sensible people can see past the scare stories and I suspect that as referendum day approaches, just watch your friends move over to the Yes side. I truly believe it is in their best interests to do so. Keep up the good work.
O/T – Check out The Herald’s ‘Twitterendum’. Must be the Devo-Nano-Virus that’s kicking about.
link to scottcreighton.co.uk
O/T but important you were offline for about 10 mins. Another denial of service attack, or just a huge surge of new viewers?
If Cheltenham’s GCHQ swings into action, as in Treminator, we’ll all have to resort to our old CB radios
best not to have a mass rally(kinnock)
grassroots is good,slowly but surely
@thepnr
I should have realised that one,they never ask the poor.There are masses who have never been asked.
I think young people in Scotland should be told what their immediate future may be if Scotland remains within the Union. Whilst the National Services Bill for Young People has only reached its Second Reading at Westminster (a long way yet from becoming an Act of Parliament), there is always the possibility that a Private Members Bill will eventually make it into statute (although, it has to be said, that few ever do).
Whilst presently the Bill is targeted at drafting young people of the ages 18-26 in England and Wales into compulsory National Service, upon a No vote in September’s Referendum there would be little to prevent this Bill from being extended to young people in Scotland. Whilst this Bill may actually be welcome by some young people in Scotland, I rather doubt that the majority of young people would be open to the idea of being drafted into National Service for 2 years.
The Bill:
link to publications.parliament.uk
It’s progress through Westminster:
link to services.parliament.uk
Perhaps the prospect of compulsory National Service might help focus the mind of the younger Scottish voter a little more?
“Have heard rumours from very grown-up sources this week about a poll commissioned by a UK trade union being withheld from publication due to a Yes lead.”
I’d also heard this, although didn’t know it was as good as a Yes lead. And remember this is Ipsos Mori who consistently poll very low for Yes.
Sorry–should be ONE year’s National Service for young people, not two.
Jim Murphy is appearing on Sunday Politics show this morning, having just returned from Qatar.
He will be discussing the workers in Qatar who are involved in the building of World Cup venues, not sure of exact detail.
Has this guy got too much spare time on his hands or what?
He has just finished writing a book and now he is globe trotting fighting for peoples rights, when his own Party have just sided with a far right wing Government on Welfare Reforms.
Which will affect millions of people in the UK.
The sooner we dump parasites like Murphy the better.
Posted earlier but got 503 error code.
I see A. Darling’s new buzz-word is “monstered” – said it three times in this morning’s interview. If we disagree with unionists, they apparantly feel monstered. Thought I’d try it out myself – said to Mr. Jeannie, “I think we should go out for lunch today”. Mr Jeannie disagreed. Monstered!
A very encouraging poll, lets keep the momentum in the months ahead, with 6 months to go its looking more and more likely .
George Galloway blog guardian,now closed
was going to post highest ever poll for independence,please stay ( : > )
To help bridge the gender gap, the WfI fundraiser needs a little push to get to it’s target in 10 days time:
link to indiegogo.com
Stu @9.59am
If a UK Trade has carried out a poll,surely it would be based on Scottish Members? That being the case a bit of publicity to identify which union and members were involved could get them to demand its publication. After all who pays the union dues? What about the paid leadership being open and transparent to their Members? This is too important to let slip..
@donnywho says:
O/T but important you were offline for about 10 mins. Another denial of service attack, or just a huge surge of new viewers?
Once I saw that Wings had been down a few moments I went to the Guardian Politics Live blog and commented that Wings was down on the morning of the poll announcement, and I provided a link to Wings.
link to theguardian.com
It looked like one of those “problems are opportunities” situations.
🙂
What’s that coming over the hill?
Is it a monster? Is it a monster?
What’s that coming over the hill?
Is it a monster? Is it a monster?
YES
There is a lot to be said for Marr giving Darling moral support…we don’t want the No team changing personnel at this juncture. They might bring in someone plausible.
M4rkyboy @ 7.05 WOW!
Must say they were very restrained when faced with that barrage! Surprised he didnt end up getting skelped or handbagged but that would have been the desired result. And the weird thing is the video is from his own camera, rather than the recipients of his tirade. A touch of the agent provocateur
The results of this poll are a great boost to yes! Welcome Steph, there are too few of us women joining this wonderful site!
The only way that I could get into this site was by an older post on Facebook the website says Error 503! Nasty hackers you won’t bring us down! You won’t take away our chance for a true democracy in Scotland!
JLT says:
‘…An appeal from the Queen and a fabricated terrorist attack by a non-existing Scottish terrorist group.’
Neither will happen.
JLT I think your totally wrong about whether or not the Queen will make a plea to Scots to remain part of the Union. The Queen has form in this regard as she spoke out against a Yes vote in the 1995 Quebec Independence referendum. This will surely happen in our referendum also.
On 26 October Quebec DJ Pierre Brassard, posing as Chrétien, prank called Queen Elizabeth II to ask her to record a speech in support of Canadian unity ahead of the referendum. The queen agreed, requesting a copy of the proposed speech and telling the alleged prime minister “No problem, no, I can do that”. A legal scholar stated that there was nothing improper about her willingness to make such a speech, as the queen believed she was acting on her prime minister’s advice.
link to en.wikipedia.org
This is another interesting poll giving us much food for thought.
I find the reduction in the Yes vote among the lower income group and at the same time the growth in yes support among those in the higher income group might be the initial response to the Currency fear factor.
This was bound to have a ‘fear factor’ effect among those with the poorest education, but because of its bad handling it might have had the opposite effect on those with a greater education and understanding of the issues.
O/T
New Logo for BBC Scotland will be printed on all material belonging to the State Broadcaster including t-shirts for all it’s radio staff.
It is a “warning” to anyone thinking of non-payment of your License Fee. It says,
“IF YOU DON’T PAY MY WAGES, YOU WILL GO TO JAIL”.
North Korea loved the logo so much that they have ordered millions of the t-shirts, saying,
The people have to understand who is in charge here.
You’re doing fantastic work Rev Stu – keep it up !
The most interesting part of this poll in my view is that 27% of Labour voters are now Yes voters too. This group just keeps rising.
By the time the referendum comes more than half of labour supporters will vote Yes is my opinion.
Sunday Politics and Andrew Neil with a graph on Milibands weirdness! Ho Ho Ho.
Alan
I watched that video too, that chap did little for the cause of Better Together.
Of course if a Yes supporter (and I hope one wouldn’t because we don’t need to) were to do that to a No campaign effort in the street it would be all over the Mail.
There really is one rule for Yes and another for No.
More money going on Yes. 23/10
link to archive.is
Hi Steph and welcome.
As others have said just keep plugging away with the facts such as: Alex Salmond is the only elected leader in the UK with a majority; it is he who has managed to get 16 and 17 year olds the right to vote in the referendum; and because of Mr Salmond Scottish university students are not facing a £9000 per year debt for their education.
If anyone at your school still says that Alex is about a dictatorship and nazism after you’ve given them the facts then I can only assume that their minds are being manipulated by sick in the head people that are close to them (maybe even Orange Order, BNP and SDL members). One of the best places to direct young people is the National Collective website and Facebook page.
@ Steph
As a former teacher I have to say how disappointed but not surprised I am to read of your experience with your school Salmond haters.
They are thoroughly inculcated by adults who should know better, taught how not to think for themselves, above all, never to question anything.
I have to admit I’m a Salmond fan.
I did not begin that way. I was never sure of his exact political outlook other than regaining sovereignty. Then I discovered it wasn’t him who invited the odious Trump to buy a chunk of Aberdeenshire, but his predecessor, Union Jack McConnell. What Salmond did was to support more jobs for his area. What else could he do?
Nor did I like his contact with Murdoch, the destroyer of worlds. But Murdoch began his political life in Australia a member of his local communist party. He wasn’t always the “dirty digger.”
Once you delve a little deeper you discover amazing things.
Your school peers are repeating what they’ve heard spoken by adults. For adolescents they sound very old – old folk tenbd to close down their options.
Here is a wonderful opportunity to rebel, to show the powers what they offer is not good enough. We want the real thing, not pretendy democracy, not end of the pier democracy, we demand the real thing.
Dictator?
If there’s dictating to be done, the people of Scotland will be the ones to do it. We’ll be bold, innovative, radical, adventurous, making decisions for the general good and widest possible happiness.
Happiness is intoxicating.
Carpe diem!
grousebeater.wordpress
@Alan Mackintosh
Mental,eh?
It staggered me watching that.I knew these boys existed but nothing could have prepared me for seeing it for the first time.
“Ah’ll be voting NO” she replied “because I don’t like your man in charge.”
8.54, above
A possible reply might be along the lines of: “What’s not to like about Dennis Canavan?”, pointing out that Alex Salmond is not in charge of the YES campaign. In fact, I don’t even think that he is in charge of the Referendum campaign within the SNP – that is Nichola Sturgeon.
This is not to deny that AS is a leading light in the drive to independence, but I think that we should take any opportunity to give corrections to the perception that the YES campaign = Alex Salmond.
@M4rkyboy says:
link to youtube.com
I warn you in advance.Not for the faint-hearted.
And here is us all saying for months that Bitter Together don’t have a “grass-roots” campaign.
Clearly we were wrong.
🙂
Steph
How many of your classmates and those in other years hope to attend University?
The UK Government has already announced 2 billion pounds (8bn over the parliament) cumulative cuts per year in Scottish public sector expenditure, it should be noted that in the unlikely event of a Labour Victory in the 2015 General Election that Labour have said they will match the Tory Cuts.
Add to the above cuts the probability of the Barnett Formula ending, which will bring further annual cuts of over 4 billion pounds. These cuts will make it impossible for the Scottish Government to continue to provide free University Education, so say to them vote No to pay 9 thousand pounds per year for their University Education.
Additionally, Free Personal Care, Free Prescriptions, Free Elderly/Disabled Bus Travel will be going if there is a No Vote, Its Simples, Vote YES!
Actually, re the women voters, one thing that bugs me is this banging on about the childcare thing, as if it is simply a women’s problem! This idea that women are solely responsible or interested in childcare has to go!
@caz-m,
Like you I am very critical of Jim Murphy’s position on Indy Ref, and on many other issues, but in this case I think credit where credit is due.
Based on the report this morning status of immigrant workers in Qatar is a disgrace that deserves to be given more publicity.
lSteph
Whenever I encounter the ‘I’m voting No because I hate Salmond’ attitude I use a sales technique known as ‘isolating the objection’.
In a sales situation, when the potential customer raises an objection such as ‘I don’t like the colour’ the response is to say, ‘if we could supply it in your favourite colour, would you buy the product?’. If the answer is a Yes, you can then deal with the issue of colour separately.
Whenever I encounter No voters who bring up the ‘Salmond Defence’, I ask them ‘If Alex Salmond didn’t exist, would you vote Yes?’ If they say Yes, I reply, ‘Well, if you voted No and he dropped dead the day after, wouldn’t you feel a bit silly? Alex Salmond won’t live forever and Scotland will be around a lot longer than he will.’
Your friends will still be living in Scotland long after Alex Salmond is just a memory.
On the subject of younger voters leaning towards the No side, my belief is that this is due to the fact that they weren’t around when Thatcher was wrecking muck of the Scottish economy. Many older Labour voters will never forget or forgive what she did to Scotland and want to ensure that we are rid of that type of Tory government in Scotland for good. Experience was the political teacher of many in my generation. All we can do is to ensure that younger voters are made aware of what Scotland’s experience was and that its lessons are not lost.
@JLT, “A Government is setup and acts as the voice of the Queen, hence …constitutional Monarchy (the form of Government we live under)”.
Err! No,“WE”, in Scotland,”, are not part of a constitutional monarchy. Between 1603 to 1707 the single country, “Kingdoms of Scotland”, and the three country Kingdom of England Did not form a Union of the Crowns. All they had was the two independent crowns resting upon the same person’s head. The 1688, “Glourious Revolution”, was Kingdom of England only. There was, NO Union of the Crowns until the acceptance of, ‘Article I’, of the 1707 Treaty of Union. The Glorious Revolution could not be applied to Scotland even by the, “Treaty of Union”, as Scottish law is, to this very day, based upon the legal fact that the People of Scotland, (not the monarchy), are legally sovereign. As we Scots have never been officially asked to give up our legal sovereignty Until now by the referendum we cannot have granted our sovereignty to anyone. The Glorious Revolution, the overthrow of the direct Stewart lile and the removal of the Royal Veto applied only to the Kingdom of England. It was the reason for the Jacobite uprisings between 1866 and 1745. Although the English parliamewnt claimed it was a Jacobite Rebellion you cannot rebel against a monarch who is not your own and, without a legal Union of the Crowns the English removal of their King did not dethrone the King of Scots, James VI. The reason that he was designated James I & VI was because of there being no Union of the Crowns.
Most people are stupid its best not to for get that.
Thepnr,
The only thing is mate, any speech by her could also backfire. What happens if she asks ‘her loyal subjects to believe in those British values and to stand up for them’?
Guess who comes out of the woodwork? Yep, the one thing that Better Together don’t want. The Orange Order and all the other baggage that might attach themselves to such a cause.
If protests and extremism are seen on the streets, then it could push many people towards a ‘Yes’ vote in protest at what has attached itself to Better Together.
At the end of the day. The Queen is the head of Canada, New Zealand and Australia. Scotland will be no different.
I believe the Queen will have to be very, very careful around this matter. I think her advisors will also warn her of interfering in a major political and constitutional debate. Does the Queen have her pulse on what is happening up here? Does she understand the mood of Scotland and of what it is her subjects North of the Border are wanting in powers?
God knows what Cameron is telling her! That it is in the bag? That there is nothing to worry about? That Scotland will remain part of the Union?
The only time I feel she will speak out is if Cameron has to ask her …and that is a question in itself. Does Cameron and the Tories really want to retain Scotland when it knows it can destroy the Labour party in one devastating stroke?
Folk say the Tories are only interested in Scotland because of the oil, but with Farage also mentioning this week that fracking in the North of England could solve a lot of problems for many, many years to come, then are the Tories really worried about the loss of oil? Do they really, really need Scotland? Cameron knows full well that if Scotland votes ‘Yes’ that the Queen will still be the head of the state in a new Scotland. He may just leave it that, and so might the Queen.
I don’t think the reasons for the shift in ABC1s are too hard to find. The Conservative party in Scotland has long been less far to the right than the Westminster lot, and many Tory voters may be increasingly disgusted by the Farage love-in, and calculate that there is a better chance of reviving a proper Conservative party within an independent Scotland.
Second is the old stock market saying that the time to buy is when everyone else is panicking. The opportunites of an independent Scotland compared to an increasingly dysfunctional UK look more and more attractive.
Third – and maybe most important – is the continuing collapse of Scottish Labour. Clinging onto Westminster used to the best way of avoiding being governed by those nasty socialist central belt wealth-stealers. The more that Scotlab looks incapable of being elected (and have they ever looked less capable?) the less the middle classes will be scared by the thought of independence.
@caz-m@1:38 – It’s time to get those YES badges on ALL your jackets and get the YES wristbands on
Feel the same way it seems like I have been ploughing a lone furrow with my Yes sticker but in the last week I have spotted another couple of cars on the A77. I keep my wristband on at all times but I don’t push my views on anyone but I have only had a few people comment on it maybe as we get closer and it becomes the default position to vote yes more folk will ask questions.
I have been concerned about the number of women in business (either owning their own or in partnership with husband) who are very anti indy, citing much the same as Steph above — don’t like or trust AS — and, in addition, think their business expansion will be seriously harmed if yes prevails.
These are people who are obviously not swayed by anything from Women for Indy, and sadly will not attend a Business for Scotland meeting, though they are obviously in need of information on the possibilities an indy Scotland could create. I have seen in videos how rapt women are at BfS presentations, but first they need to be attracted along.
I emailed Business for Scotland to suggest they might be the best people to produce information specifically tailored for these women. This could perhaps include the potential for good jobs for their children as well as the wellbeing of elderly parents, and bright prospects for themselves as business women under indy.
I haven’t received an acknowledgement to my email, but guess Business for Scotland are snowed under, but I believe the women’s vote is an issue that needs tackled in different ways and hoped BfS could play a significant role in this. A change of attitude amongst these women could also filter down to their families, perhaps even those Steph encounters.
Re the attitude of young women – I was handing out leaflets yesterday in the street and was pleasantly surprised to find most people happy to accept one. Even a senior citizen No voter stopped to chat. But I had one abject refusal on the grounds she would not be voting at all – from a young woman.
Then I saw a picture of Afghans standing in line, risking life and limb to vote on the future of their country and I thought of that young Scotswoman and just felt sad.
Robert
Err! No, “WE”, in Scotland,”, are not part of a constitutional monarchy.
Yes, you to a degree you are right, but officially, or unofficially, we do reside under ‘Constitutional Monarchy’. We have a Queen. We have a Government. They ask permission to setup Government in her name. Scotland is ruled from Westminster under the authority of the Queen. Whether that breaches rules, articles or whatever, those exemptions have been ignored for 300 years.
If it is not that, then
1. What constitutional arrangement is it that Scotland lives under that is different from the rest of the UK.
2. Scotland ‘did’ accept the rule of William III, and therefore the ‘Glorious Revolution’. On the 14th of March 1689, a Scottish Convention of the Estates was setup. They had two letters. One from King James; one from William.
James’s letter was considered threatening as he made veiled threats to those who would stand against him. He also made it sound, that being an absolute monarch, that he had the ability to remove the Nations religion, laws, property and liberties. As has been laid out for centuries, and confirmed by John Know, no King was above the people. The people could rid themselves of a bad king.
This was what the Convention did. They believed by threatening the peoples of Scotland, that James VII had forfeited the throne.
The Convention decided to offer the crown to William and Mary, and it was proclaimed at the Mercat Cross in Edinburgh. should William and Mary fail to produce offspring, then the crown would go to Anne (which it did).
The Convention also drew up 2 articles. the ‘Claim of Right’ and the ‘Articles of Grievance’. these stated that no catholic should rule the Kingdom of Scotland, and that parliament should meet frequently and debate freely.
Now to be fair, William did accept the crown, but there was confusion as to whether he accepted the terms over parliament.
Now, this was before the Act of Union, so the Glorious Revolution DID matter to Scotland and it was officially accepted by the people who did not want a Catholic Monarchy.
Through the Glorious Revolution and the Act of Union, whether some clauses were ignored or not, we do live under a ‘Constitutional Monarchy’. If it is a ‘Yes’ vote then I have no doubt that a few of these ancient and noble clauses will be re-enacted on the 19th of September or in March 2016.
Steph, you should just keep doing what you are doing. Your peers will hear your arguments and think, maybe Stephs’ got a point, I’ll have to look into this further and when they do…another convert.
Go Lassie, go.
Know! Know …Knox!!!! Bring back the Editor!
Belter!
Mr MacIntyre OCD, Woking, has posted a 127 word BTL entry on this poll in the Herald feature… in which he works in an amazing 5 occurrences of “pro-separatist website Wings over Scotland”…
Should do wonders for the google page ranking.
[…] A new opinion poll from Panelbase, crowd funded by Wings Over Scotland, has delivered the final blow to the currency masterplan to scare nationalism stone dead. The Yes vote is still going up. When don’t knows are excluded, Yes is on 47% with No on 53%. A swing of just 3% is all that is required to wipe out No’s increasingly narrow lead. […]
Dorothy Bruce:
As a member of Business for Scotland I know that they are indeed very busy with enquiries and events across the country. I’m involved with the Edinburgh branch and we had a good turnout – male and female – and a 25% swing to Yes in a before and after vote at our “Scotland the Brand” event last week. As regards targetted material, I think to be fair there is some there: see for example link to businessforscotland.co.uk. I’ll mention your point though at our next meeting and make sure it gets passed on.
Jim Murphy is appearing on Sunday Politics show this morning, having just returned from Qatar.
Don’t you recognise imperialism when you see it? 🙂
A Return to East of Suez?
UK Military Deployment to the Gulf
Gareth Stansfield and Saul Kelly
Royal United Services Institute
April 2013
BRIEFING PAPER
Foreword
Michael Clarke
At a time of economic retrenchment and growing uncertainty within Europe, it may seem strange that the UK sees its future military security increasingly ‘east of Suez’. Such an emotive phrase suggests imperial ambitions at a time when UK armed forces are smaller than they have been for 200 years. But there are compelling reasons for the UK to take its Gulf relationships much more seriously.
link to rusi.org
link to en.wikipedia.org
Interesting, and encouraging, headline figures, although there is clearly still work to be done regarding certain groups in particular.
I’m looking forward to seeing the rest of the results.
And well done on getting the front page headline in the Times, Rev. A far cry from the coverage of the first Wings-funded poll!
Ivan McKee
I’ve posted quite a bit about the RTPI and how, IMO, its policy guidance keeps Scotland at a perpetual structural disadvantage. Though I think my theory is sound, I have been out of the profession for years. So I was wondering if the info might have been of interest to BfS?
Ivan McKee
Not only Quatar,Ive been to Dubai and Abu Dhabi several times and the way the workers are treated is terrible, I think they have stopped transporting them about in Cattle Lorries but they still live packed into Shipping Containers with no aircon. It is a scandal and well done Jim Murphy for highlighting the issue. Now, if he could only show as much concern for the disadvantaged, disabled and poor in the UK I might have some respect for him.
O/T Rev, I sent via FB a photo of the Sunday Times Scotland front page, Main story is the poll.
As i have said all along, more ladies and young scotland will get involved when they can see evidence, in windows and on cars and on ourselves. At the mo its still possible to avoid the issue.
Prof Curtice doesn’t seem to think this poll says very much.
Mealer
The Independent on Sunday seem to think it does.
link to independent.co.uk
I see tables are up.
Weighted to 8-10 likely to vote.
Any chance of the full base numbers Rev?
We also have to remember that younger voters don’t have much experience of cheering Scotland on in major sporting events. Recently they have had Team GB to cheer for.
When I was a kid, we always had Scotland to root for in the World cup or the European Football Championships.
I don’t know how much it helps in building a sense of nationhood, but perhaps it has some effect.
It’s a real shame we won’t be competing this year especially.
It will be interesting to see the effect the commonwealth games has in the Summer, and the world cup also, especially if we get all the usual over-the-top coverage of the England teams every move.
Incidentally, it’s actually, excluding DK’s
47.2% Y
52.8% N
😉
Maybe the Scottish Tories are beginning to realise that the only way that they’ll ever gain power in Scotland some day, is under independence, for whilst their linked to Westminster’s Tory party, they haven’t a hope in hell of ever gaining power in Scotland.
A small but promising swing on the polls towards yes, though I personally think the percentages are much closer than they suggest.
Re apparently sensible young people. Just emphasise that if NO succeeds then shortly after that they or their parents will be paying university fees of at least £9000 per year. That should concentrate their minds. And the YES people should be clearly stating that in their ads and literature.
For young air headed men and women we need a few of their ‘much loved’ favourite Slebs to start supporting YES. Are there any? Having said that, such people Y or N are unlikely to vote anyway so net result zero in Referendum.
It took 2Years for BRITISH to Sign AMERICAN INDEPENDENCE:
(that was in 1783, a time of Sailing Ships and the Atlantic Ocean distancing the treaty negotiators)
I’m reading great history book, a Samuel Johnson prize shortlisted “Liberty’s Exiles” by Maya Jasanoff, esteemed American, Imperial History Professor Harvard University USA. She looks at the aftermath of American War of Independence from the British Empire perspective, using the Letters and Papers of those involved, and of the time.
Professor Janaoff reports on the British badly, even to their Union Loyalists. Although it was hundreds of years ago. Its the same people incharge. Leopards don’t change their spots. I’ve found relevant sentences direct from her book, which I hope to post as and when.
For example I’ve listed below direct quotes from this book by Maya Jasanoff, American, Imperial History Professor Harvard University USA.
page56 “King GeorgeIII so strongly opposed to INDEPENDENCE(American 1783) that he threatened to abdicate”
page57 “it took a YEAR for British and American negotiators to work out a preliminary peace treaty, and another YEAR until a definitive peace was signed”
Therefore you surely must vote “YES” after reading this.
This is the best time for Scotland to win.
All the Duck’s are in a line.
ps. Edward – I’ve post good reply to your great comments on: Wings Shifting the blame 5/4/14. Great info keep posting.
The 503 error Unavailable could simply be that Wings hasn’t got enough server connections rather than a denial of service attack?
The profile of this site has been undeniably raised recently and will have lead to a rise in interested newbies (welcome all)
@JLT, Sorry to be slow to reply but my on-line connection went down.
As to point, “1”, Scotland has never been a constitutional monarchy for the very good reason that Scotland’s sovereignty has always legally rested in, “The People of Scotland”, who are sovereign.
As already pointed out there was no legal, “Union of the Crowns”, in 1603. The two realms remained as independent realms until 1st May 1707. (See, ‘Article 1’, of the Act of Union). When Bruce was excommunicated by the Pope, (the international authority in Christendom). After killing the Red Comyn on the alter steps of Dumfries High Kirk. This meant that under the normal system of , “The Divine right of Kings”, he couldn’t be sovereign. As a king’s realm and subjects were owned by him, by divine right, he could lay claim to neither. Enter, “The Declaration of Arbroath”, one of the most clever and cunning documents ever written.
Mind you there were fair grounds for the declaration in the then existing Scottish legal system. The claim was that Scottish monarchs were/are,NOT sovereign but are chosen by the, “Sovereign People of Scotland” and they could sack a bad monarch and replace him/her with another. The Scots monarchy are, , “Defenders of the People’s Sovereignty”, . Hence they are designated as, for example, “Mary Queen of Scots”, not as, “Mary, Queen of Scotland”.
This is why we Scots have, “The Right To Roam”, and why there is no English style, “Law of Trespass”, in Scotland. Note that there was a, “Claim of Right Act 1689”. This was again affirmed in 1989 and here are some of the prominent people who signed it – Gordon Brown, Alistair Darling and Donald Dewer.
Here is another good example that this People’s sovereignty is current Scots law. No private person in Scotland can clamp a vehicle parked on private land in Scotland and demand money to un-clamp it. They are charge with demanding money with menace if they do. No one can prevent you from roaming on their land in Scotland – not even the Queen, There is right to roam across the Balmoral Estate. Mind you there are certain other restrictions such as invasion of privacy.
As to point, “2”, That is exactly in line with Scots law as it states that the Sovereign people of Scotland can sack a bad monarch. Thing was that, like the Treaty of Union, it WAS NOT, the people of Scotland who did it – it was the same landed gentry. The Paircel o Rogues, who had already sold our birthright. This referendum is the first time the Sovereign people of Scotland have been asked to give their sovereign authority to, ANYTHING
@dorothybruce
Re Business for Scotland, when and who did you contact?
Here’s my personal email will chase it up.Certainly didn’t see anything in my inbox.
balharry1@yahoo.com
BTW Rev Nicholas Watt of the Observer reckons your poll was in fact the Sunday Times’ poll.
I have commented to this effect and now emailed Watt to request a correction.
Robert Peffers
Hi Robert, apologies back. Been studying!
To be honest, I agree with you on most of the points except for the current status quo for Scotland.
I totally agree with you on every point that you make, but …the problem we have is that whether we ‘never have been a constitutional monarchy for the very good reason that Scotland’s sovereignty has always legally rested in, “The People of Scotland”, who are sovereign. …we are ruled by a system that is ‘constitutional monarchy’.
I agree that it was the ‘Scottish Establishment’ who made up the Scottish Convention and decided to choose William as King, and nothing was asked of the people.
But… one thing that should be noted, is that the people did riot in Edinburgh, and the Cameronians did uprise in the South West of Scotland. As noted in Magnus Magnusson’s great book, ‘Scotland’, he pointed out that the bloodless ‘Glorious Revolution’ did not cause bloodshed in England, but it did in Scotland! The people did not want a Catholic King (nor Episcopalianism). Therefore, (and we can only assume here), that the people decided that William was the better choice between William and James.
In my opinion …yes, I agree with you on all your points, but like everything else that Westminster did, it imposed ‘Constitutional Monarchy’ on Scotland, and whether it is valid or not, or whether we like it or not, that is the system we have lived under.
Now, as you say, come the 18th (and God willing), this paves the way to Scotland being a sovereign nation once more with our old laws put back in place. What will be interesting, will be how monarchy, government and the new constitution will be setup within a new Scotland in regards to the old laws.
As to the… No one can prevent you from roaming on their land in Scotland – not even the Queen, There is right to roam across the Balmoral Estate. Mind you there are certain other restrictions such as invasion of privacy …seriously…I would end that on Day 1. It’s a piece of nonsense that I can’t take the works van through the grounds around Holyrood (by Arthur’s Seat) because there is writing on the side of the van, and it is considered advertising on the Queen’s estate. I will get fined (and probably penalty points) if I get caught by the police. I have see it happen twice to other business vehicles who drove through the park in the last year. I’m not talking about driving around inside the palace grounds; I’m talking about the road around Arthur’s Seat. It’s the Queens land apparently, and therefore all advertised vehicles are banned from the road unless they pay a fee to the Queen. Yet, if I wear a t-shirt advertising, say …Tennent’s Lager …would I be told to cover up? It’s an absolute nonsense. I will be very happy if that wee law is torn up come independence.
Very well timed poll, excellent Rev, front page Times and even on the dreaded BBC News during the night / morning. Oddschecker is lit up like a Christmas tree with one even down to 9/4 against YES – pehaps some connection?
I think the importance of such a poll can’t be understated. YES is hopefully becoming the norm now, and set to overtake NO as the “default” vote – an incredible advance over the last 2 years.
Everyone wants to be on the winning team, so perhaps not long to go now before YES leads and just keeps going up.
I really find the difference in women voting YES to men strange.
The volunteers for YES scotland and Radical Independence are almost 50% female,and they are also the most passionate about the cause too.
My own experience with NO voters on the doorstep is they dont like Alex Salmond and prefer Nicola,never mind that they are both SNP.
Whatever the real reason I aim to get more women to vote YES from now on!
Moving On Up..sung by Tomorrow People rather than M People!
Dorothy:
I’ve noticed the same. Definite Nos, based on stories like Standard Life, even RBS, having to “relocate” to London, because that’s where they do business and they have to be in the same country as the regulatory body they use, etc. Apparently we’d “lose” practically all of the financial sector for “a generation”.
I’m not knowledgeable enough to be able to counter that and sound like I know what I’m talking about, but I’m pretty sure that’s a big exaggeration.
Without wanting to sound too patronising, I’d say the fear of the unknown / fear of change thing plays especially well with businesswomen, especially when there’s so much risk and uncertainty in the market and economy in the first place. Even the administrative chageover for tax and legal stuff is a headache they don’t want.
Need to identify business benefits that make it worthwhile I think.
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