The world's most-read Scottish politics website

Wings Over Scotland


Shiny beads and trinkets

Posted on July 05, 2020 by

Even by the intellectual standards of the Scottish media, this is a stupid question:

But just to be helpful, we’ll answer it: by a majority of more than 500 votes is how.

The Tories, Labour, Liberal Democrat and Democratic Ulster Unionist parties in the UK Parliament are all explicitly opposed to a second independence referendum. Between them they hold 586 of the 650 seats in the Commons.

The SNP could probably count on the support of Plaid Cymru and maybe the solitary Green MP, which would give them a total of 53 votes in favour of the idea, thereby losing the division by 533. Democracy in action, there. In 2014 Scotland declined the responsibility for its own decisions and left it to the UK, and that’s the UK position.

It’s not like anyone could claim to be surprised. Everyone knows their policies on the subject, and everyone knew their policies at the election seven months ago. And sure enough, in the very same poll, Scottish respondents told us that they knew that too.

Almost 60% of the exact same voters in the poll Hutcheon was talking about believed the UK government would not grant a second indyref under ANY circumstances, and another 16% – for a total of 73% – said it would need a year of polling consistently above 60%, which is still a pipedream.

Less than one in five Scots believe that even if the current one-month run of polls over 50% stretched to a year it would be enough to persuade the UK to cave in, and barely one in three believe that even consistent polling over 60% would.

We also know from just a couple of weeks ago that almost identical numbers don’t believe any possible result in next year’s Holyrood election would do the job either.

There’s literally no reason for Boris Johnson to concede anything on the issue. He doesn’t even need an argument. Until such times as any hypothetical legal action proves otherwise it’s a decision for the UK Parliament to make, and as we’ve just seen he has the overwhelming, crushing democratic support of that Parliament on it – no matter how many pretty and sparkly but meaningless “mandates” the SNP collect from either voters or polling companies.

But what about a political motivation? We thought it’d be interesting, since we were also polling a full-size English sample at the same time, to see what his own voters thought. So we asked the English sample – but mainly interested in Tory voters – what they thought about a second Scottish referendum.

By more than two to one, Johnson’s own voters in England would be against the idea. He did, after all, campaign very pointedly as the “Prime Minister For The Union”.

And among his Scottish voters the margin was comfortably more than SIX to one.

So any concession to a second referendum isn’t only unlikely and unnecessary from Johnson’s point of view, it would be political suicide. The people who put him in power, and who he needs to do so again in 2024, would regard it as a massive betrayal. For as long as he has any say in it, it’s simply not going to happen.

Mildly interestingly, by the by, Labour voters in England take a very different view:

But new leader Keir Starmer has significantly hardened his party’s position against a new referendum since taking over, unequivocally ending Jeremy Corbyn’s somewhat woolly and fluid stance, so what they want counts for nothing.

(Even if Labour suddenly pivoted to 100% support, which they won’t, Johnson still has a majority of 80, and 120 once you include the Lib Dems and DUP.)

Plan A is deader than a dead thing that’s just been shot through the head, set on fire and dropped into an industrial grinder. Westminster is not going to concede, either because of polls or because of any vote in Scotland, and as long as the SNP meekly maintains that the London parliament is sovereign then what’s more Westminster is democratically quite right not to concede. It would fly in the face of the UK electorate to whom the UK parliament is accountable.

(Comfortably-nested SNP MP Pete Wishart summoned up some sort of token effort at suggesting an alternative via the EU this week, and was absolutely cuttingly smacked down like an unruly child by a European expert. It was so brutal even we winced.)

The only thing that could happen at next year’s election to change that situation is if a political force of some sort came into being in Scotland that challenged Westminster’s sole sovereignty over the constitution.

And for some very interesting data on that, tune into Wings tomorrow.

Print Friendly

    1 Trackbacks/Pingbacks

    1. 05 07 20 12:57

      Shiny beads and trinkets | speymouth

    204 to “Shiny beads and trinkets”

    1. Simone says:

      Oh c’mon, you can’t leave us with a cliffhanger like that!

    2. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      Watch me 😀

    3. Andy Ellis says:

      I’m sure Pete Wishart and his hard of thinking SNP ultra mates will be along directly assurin us that Boris and the British nationalists will absolutley HAVE to give us #indyref2 if only we deliver the umpteenth mandate and say pretty please witha cherry on top.

      That’s how it works, right?

      #indyref2039 anyone?

    4. Muscleguy says:

      I do hope you aren’t going to mint a Wings party at this late stage. We have the ISP we don’t need another pro Indy party on the List to muddy the waters. As Collette Walker has pointed out it can take 5 months to register a party. You’re too late.

    5. Andy Ellis says:

      @Muscleguy

      I do hope you see that the ISP, whilst potentially well meaning, is hardly setting the world on fire. No big names, no big hitters, a launch that was more damp squib than fireworks (even allowing for Covid-19). Their efforts so far look pretty amateurish: even the party name is woeful.

      From memory Collette Walker’s party had to come up with a new name because the first 1 was rejected: hardly inspires confidence thus far. I’m not sure ISP will make that much more impact than Mr Whittet’s Referendum Party, but who knows? Perhaps they will announce something that makes them different: I’ll wait and see what tomorrow brings I think!

    6. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “I do hope you aren’t going to mint a Wings party at this late stage. We have the ISP we don’t need another pro Indy party on the List to muddy the waters. As Collette Walker has pointed out it can take 5 months to register a party. You’re too late.”

      Even if that were the plan, how would 5 months be “too late” for an election that’s 10 months away?

    7. How about if we offer the chimp a ton of cocaine,prima nocta and Jackson Carlaw`s collection of Old Masters.

    8. schrodingers cat says:

      i hate to admit it but wm wont agree to a s30

      without which, it will be difficult to run a meaniful indyref2, the unionist controlled councils wouldnt participate.

      turning the holyrood election into a plebicite on indy is an option, especially with the polls at 55% for the snp

      if wm still says yes, the union is over

      if wm still says no, the union is over

    9. hi says:

      Its not UK Parliament that grants section 30, its the UK Government.

      Of course no one thinks they’ll grant one, but when the shit hits the fan, in 2021 they’ll have no choice but to support one. Just like in 2011.

      Because if they don’t that will only help the cause of independence.

    10. Colin Alexander says:

      Stu Campbell said:

      “The only thing that could happen at next year’s election to change that situation is if a political force of some sort comes into being in Scotland that challenges Westminster’s sole sovereignty over the constitution.

      And for some very interesting data on that, tune into Wings tomorrow”.

      After doing your duty of pointing out it is foolish nonsense to suppose the British Empire will give a damn and cave in to Scottish opinion, is that a note of hope?

      I cannae wait.

    11. Andy Ellis says:

      Loath as I am to agree with SC in general, I suspect he is right. Given “noises off” from the SNP I see no realistic prospect of them campaigning for Holyrood 2021 on a platform of making them plebiscitary, even if Westminster specifically refuses S30 order or the legal issue is settled to say it is required.

      That really only leaves us with the hope that a list only party holds the balance, rather than the SNP or SNP/Greens have an absolute majority post 2021, because they’re not likely to do anything with yet another mandate.

      Only the entrance of a new party with big hitter like Alex Salmond, Joanna Cherry is likely to deliver an administration which will push for #indyref2 this side of a “real” generation.

    12. John mcphail says:

      …..can take 5 months to register a party. You’re too late.

      Five months from now is after May 2021 is it? I bllame the Skools….

    13. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “they’ll have no choice but to support one. Just like in 2011.

      Because if they don’t that will only help the cause of independence.”

      Don’t be stupid. “The cause of independence” is meaningless unless we’re prepared to actually DO something. The Tories have been vastly upopular in Scotland for over 60 years now and they haven’t given a shit, why would that change now? They granted it in 2011 because they thought they’d win comfortably and kill the issue, much like they did with the EU referendum. They’ve learned that lesson now.

    14. schrodingers cat says:

      @andyellis

      the problem with making the next he a plebiciite on indy is you would effectively be abandoning the route to indy via a referendum if you didnt get 50%+

      then again, a stu points out, wm wont agree to a s30 anyway

      the decision will depend on polling results closer to the time but presently on 55% and thats before we exit the transition on 1st jan, things look promising

    15. Andy Ellis says:

      @Stu

      I still can’t fathom the readiness of folk like “hi” above to accept the Pete “I do believe in fairies” Wishart line. I’ve never once seen him explain why he’s so convinced it will happen, or why we should accept his faith based position.

      All I can fall back on is that it just isn’t possible to kill a bad idea?

    16. schrodingers cat says:

      stu’s right, wm only agreed to grant a s30 in 2011 cos they were certain they would win

      this position is now reversed, their only option is to stop us getting a vote at all by refusing the s30

      they only way we will get a vote is if the holyrood election is turned into a defacto plebicite on indy

    17. One_Scot says:

      Well I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m in.

    18. Andy Ellis says:

      @SC 11.29am

      Possibly, but I don’t see any real reason why the indy movement as a whole and/or parties can’t say that either route is acceptable. However, if British nationalists insist that referendums are only valid if granted with permission, rather than “as of right” if a Holyrood majority mandates one, then we are essentially in the same position as the Catalans vis-à-vis Spain, where their self determination will forever be in the gift of the whole of Spain to bestow, even if 99% of Catalans vote for it.

      As Stu notes, in the end we need a force in Scottish politics which refuses to accept that self determination is contingent on British nationalist approval. It is now fairly obvious the SNP are not that force.

    19. robertknight says:

      The UK Government doesn’t even have to turn down a Section 30 request…

      This is what pisses me right off with these idiots who behave as though the UK Govt. has a moral compass or sense of duty towards democracy. We have the House of Lords FFS!

      All the UK Govt need to is bring forward a Bill to permit a Section 30 and then allow Tory backbenchers a free vote in order to kill it stone dead. They can then blame the SNP for failing to persuade the House as to the merits of the Bill.

      What don’t the idiots promoting “Plan A” not understand in this?

    20. One_Scot says:

      So reading between the lines, the only way Scotland will ever have even a chance of becoming Independent is by going down the court route, which could end up going very well, or going very badly.

    21. schrodingers cat says:

      @andyellis

      i dont disagree, but the fact is, as stu points out in his article, wm wont agree to a s30 in any case, without which, it will be very difficult to actually have an indyref2. 2/3rds of councils are unionist controlled

      ive been on this blog site for years advocating tactical voting on the list so i welcome whatever stu is planning

    22. Republicofscotland says:

      Very clear and precise Rev, maybe it will shake few independence supporters into realising that Plan A, or the Gold Standard as Sturgeon puts it, is just a pipe dream.

      If we truly want Scottish independence we’ll need find another route. Possibly one through the route that the Scottish people are sovereign, and therefore citing the UN Charter on self determination we can democratically decide our own future.

      We must show clearly to the international community that Westminster is denying our democratic right to cede from this union if a plebiscite shows that to be the case.

      The EU bodies might not be so receptive to this idea for now, with the post-Brexit trade deals ongoing. However a no deal outcome might favour our position, and the EU could then help to prise Scotland away from the union, and access to whatever we have to offer them in return.

      Doing nothing isn’t an option, of course none of this means anything if you don’t have a FM who wants independence, and has the resolve to push for it come what may.

    23. schrodingers cat says:

      @one-scot

      possibly, but i am only concerned with facilitating the option for people to have a vote on the issue, ergo the call for the 2021 he to be turned into an indy plebicite.

      how wm will react to that, i genuinely dont know. the only way bojo could stop the vote taking place would be to shutdown holyrood

    24. schrodingers cat says:

      @ros

      having a vote with 50%+ support for indy, would strengthen our case in any court, including the court of public opinion both here, england and in the rest of the world

    25. Famous15 says:

      Stu I think you are being unkind to Boris.

      See how he is supporting the will of the Hong Kong people!

      Boris is forcing China to do the right thing in regard to the Treaty and China must not breach what they agreed to. Very much like 1707 Treaty. Precedent is precedent.

    26. Andy Ellis says:

      @SC

      I think #indyref2 is a dead duck unless the legal case finds Holyrood can hold one without a S30 order. It will be quite comical watching gradualist worms like Wishart et al wriggle on that particular hook!

      Barring some political earthquake I’m getting more and more convinced “once in a generation” will become a self fulfilling prophecy simply because not enough Scots have the fire in their belly to bring it about any sooner.

      I hope I’m wrong, but I wouldn’t bet the farm on it…..

    27. Colin Alexander says:

      Hopefully the “sovereignty” news will at some point address at least some of these issues:

      1. The UK is NOT a democracy just because votes are held. It operates on the principle of “Crown in Parliament sovereignty of Parliament”. Or, the tyranny of medieval monarchs exercised by Parliament.

      2. As Breeks points out: Sovereignty trumps votes.

      3. UK Parliament now asserts in law the sovereignty of Parliament.(EU Withdrawal Agreement s38), effectively attempting to re-write the Scottish and UK’s constitution. Imposing English constitutional principles onto Scotland and the UK.

      4. Scotland’s constitutional law and the Treaty of Union do not assert the “sovereignty of Parliament”.

      5. The SNP, including the much lauded Joanna Cherry have failed to challenged this attempt to re-write the constitution of Scotland and the UK.

    28. HandandShrimp says:

      I am inclined to agree that Johnson will hide in a fridge if Nicola comes looking for a S30.

      He isn’t much of a scholar and he is no gentleman. I wouldn’t trust him with my pint much less my country.

      An overwhelming victory next year is a good, actually essential, starting point. Defeat and some sort of unholy unionist coalition in charge of Holyrood from 2021 onwards would pretty much slide us down a long snake in this board game. However, victory is only base camp. From there we have to think outside the confines of the Westminster box.

      So, I am cheered by the poll and it is patently clear that there is consternation in the unionist ranks over all the polls since the election. We need that base camp, without it we are not going up the slope but clearly post May 2021 the SNP leadership have to shift tack and take a different route to the summit. In that respect polling has limited forecasting powers. Seizing the initiative and setting the agenda can drive public opinion and tap into a desire for change.

    29. schrodingers cat says:

      @andyellis

      i have little faith in the justice system of the uk will deliver anything in support of our cause, that doesnt mean we shouldnt pursue it, anymore than we shouldnt appeal to the eu/un, i just dont think it will do much good

    30. Bob Mack says:

      Surely Boris only has two options

      1. Out an end to revolution by dissolving Holyrood. Or

      2. As your title aptly out it. Offer more trinkets to show how much he values Scotland. Minor devolution of further powers to satisfy the Scottish people.

      Judging by his actions already and the increase in Civil Service employees for Scotland, as well as the increase of power to the Scottish Sec of State,I believe option 1 is the most likely to win.

    31. Republicofscotland says:

      “schrodingers cat says:
      5 July, 2020 at 11:46 am
      @ros

      having a vote with 50%+ support for indy, would strengthen our case in any court, including the court of public opinion both here, england and in the rest of the world”

      I recall a spokesperson from the EU shoot down Wisharts idea two days ago. Reading between the lines (I hope) it just the post-Brexit deal that the EU see as important first and foremost and that a no deal will see the EU shift in our favour.

    32. schrodingers cat says:

      @h&s
      I am cheered by the poll and it is patently clear that there is consternation in the unionist ranks over all the polls since the election
      ————-

      me too, i wonder how the polls will shift after jan 1st ?

    33. Bob Mack says:

      Sorry” put” and” devolution”

    34. liz says:

      I now believe Mhairi Hunter is not pro indy.
      To meekly concede our sovereignty to another country, is appalling.

      Remember she is NSs right hand women, what she is saying is coming from NS.
      NS is riding high in the polls because of Covid, yes she’s done a reasonable job but compared to WM, she’s a world leader.
      The SG will have to account eventually for the number of care home deaths, which is a scandal.

      At the moment the MSM are praising NS because it suits their purpose and yes, I do believe she has pulled some soft Nos into supporting indy.

      That, however, will change in a flash, if the MSM decide to hammer home, GRA, Alex S, possible corruption, where has the ring fenced £500k gone, and a few other skeletons they’re holding on to.

      We need to be bold, act now,. I’m with Breeks all the way, use a Constitutional backstop.
      The union was voluntary and I don’t care how many folk say we need permission, we don’t

    35. schrodingers cat says:

      ros

      the eu shot down the idea of them granting holyrood a s30

      as i said, i think we are on our own, the 50%+ election result would be nice to have, but no guarantee the eu will come to our rescue

    36. ahundredthidiot says:

      oooooohhhhhhhhh (while clapping hands)

      roll on tomorrow

    37. Andy Ellis says:

      @SC

      Agreed, I share your lack of faith in a positive legal outcome, or the chances of that leading to an agreed #indyref2 (notwithstanding Cherry’s success WRT brexit vote etc), but it IS very telling that the Scottish Government left it to an individual like Martin Keatings to seek legal certainty isn’t it?

      My concern with trying to go forward with #indyref2 (even if we won a legal case) which Westminster still opposed, and unionists threatened to boycott, it will make a positive outcome that much more questionable, and take a number of years.

      That’s why I agree with the Plan B for plebiscitary elections to be used as a threat to hang over their heads.

    38. Proud Cybernat says:

      Sounds like Scotland & UK are in need of some marriage counselling or mediation service. All I’ll say is that UK can have full custody of Kezia.

    39. jfngw says:

      Whoever stands on the list, and I’m presuming the Rev is referring to a list party, needs to have independence prominent and the main item on their manifesto. None of this nonsense with like the Greens and being dismissed as not in the manifesto. No doubt this will be in any Rev backed party but beware any party that doesn’t have it.

      We need to anticipate every spanner Westminster will try and throw in the works.

      I’m all for a plebiscite election but it has its risks, and the claim by Westminster no party on its own polled more than 50%, that is a risk with having multi independence parties. No doubt I’ll be condemned as being negative but this needs taken into account prior to a vote and not try and mitigate it afterwards. Planning is everything if you want success.

    40. schrodingers cat says:

      liz says:
      I now believe Mhairi Hunter is not pro indy.
      To meekly concede our sovereignty to another country, is appalling.
      ———————-
      i dont think she is. she merely points out that we need wm to agree not only to a s30 but also scotland becoming indy even if we win with 50%+ in a holyrood election

      I genuinely dont know how wm would react to a 50%+ result in a holyrood election, but for the same electoral arihtmetic in wm at the moment, as pointed out by stu in his article, which says no to a s30, could also still say no

    41. jfngw says:

      @liz

      You need permission of the people of Scotland, as yet that has still to happen.

    42. Angry Weegie says:

      There are 4 full months from Jan 1 to Apr 30 during which WM doesn’t have to bother with EU rules or any form of democracy. If they perceive HR21 as a threat, why would they not table a bill to neutralise the threat. It’s certain to be passed by both houses. They could even use the famed Henry VIII or civil emergency powers to bypass a vote altogether. Who’s willing to bet the house against that?

    43. schrodingers cat says:

      @andyellis

      im not a lawyer, but i believe martin keatings case is on the legality of holyrood holding a referendum

      i think it is pretty well established in law that anyone can hold a referendum mainly cos the are only advisory. the issue in question is the wm agreed s30 without which, there is no mechanism to force councils or indeed unionist voters to participate in a referendum

    44. robertknight says:

      Boris needs do nothing but watch the SNP turn on itself.

      He can refuse a S30, he can permit a S30, either way it’ll never reach the Statute Book as WM will not allow any Bill past it’s First Reading.

      What he CAN do is allow his backbenchers to introduce a Private Members Bill to enact a revised Spanish-style Act of Union, whereby no part of the Union can leave without the approval of the remainder.

      At that point, our goose is well and truly cooked.

      We need to turn HR 2021 into IndyRef2.

    45. Colin Alexander says:

      If 2011 was declared by indy parties to be a plebiscite election on indy / restoration of Scottish national sovereignty, and they gained 50% +1 of the votes cast, there would be no requirement for any referendum.

      Others point out, it can legitimately be done the other way around: 1st exercise sovereignty to resile the Treaty of Union. Then have a confirmatory indy referendum at a later point in time, as was done in the Baltic republics fairly recently.

      The SNP won’t do any of those under Sturgeon. Even Cherry, who previously spoke of a democratic event being acceptable, now publicly denounces talk of a Plan B plebiscite election.

    46. Colin Alexander says:

      Sorry, 2011 should read 2021.

    47. X_Sticks says:

      If we don’t get out of the union before Johnson and co crash us out of Europe (which may come sooner than we think to wrong-foot the SNP) then I fear we never will. You can wave goodbye to any chance of Scottish independence.

      Sorry if you find that harsh, but it’s the plain truth.

      We had our chances and squandered every one of them.

      Holyrood will be emasculated and the powers to have any sort of say in the UK constitution will be removed.

      The only route then left would be UDI and a likely civil war and that will never happen.

    48. schrodingers cat says:

      @angry weegie

      they are stopping a vote on the subect now by refusing a s30

      the only way they can stop a vote taking place in holyrood in 2021, would be to sutdown holyrood.

      i dont think they would need to do that after 1st jan, they could do that today. who would stop them?

    49. schrodingers cat says:

      @colin

      The SNP won’t do any of those under Sturgeon. Even Cherry, who previously spoke of a democratic event being acceptable, now publicly denounces talk of a Plan B plebiscite election.

      ————————-

      really, where?

    50. jfngw says:

      We also need a good turnout, the mid 50’s will be used as an argument against it. The Tories could try and game this by urging their voters to stay away, they are not that interested in Holyrood anyway, but that’s not relevant. It’s the number of independence supporters turning out which counts and if we could push this to near the 2M of the No vote of the referendum then they will struggle to argue with the result.

      It’s a tall order but we will be fighting this election on Scotland’s future, if independence voters won’t turn out for that then we’ve had it anyway.

    51. Julia Gibb says:

      Unfortunately the article is accurate. The 2011-4 agreement was only achieved because the Unionists were certain of a win ( by 2:1 at the start). They will never concede to a Referendum for the reasons soundly presented in the article.
      However the same logic applies to a successful combination SNP constituency + List Party. Why would another 10 or so seats for an Independence Party help? ( I full support the list idea). The total of Indy MSPs could hit 90+ and we will still get the door slammed in our face..especially if we get that number of seats.

      What would make Boris’s position untenable?

      Stu – make it something special. Way, way out of the box thinking as they say!

      I agree that we cannot keep stacking up mandates.

    52. HYUFD says:

      Schrodingers Cat Like it is for the Catalans and the people of Hong Kong?

      Plus even Quebec had to wait 15 years for its second referendum on independence from Canada in 1995 after the first in 1980

    53. jfngw says:

      @Colin

      As long as the confirmatory referendum is on accepting the deal on offer from the UK or no deal then fine. Once you have declared independence you are going to be hammered if you go back and say ‘we’ve changed our mind’.

    54. schrodingers cat says:

      @jhngw

      thats why if i were nicola, id wait until the campaign for he2021 is launched and the unionists have published their manifesto before i released the snp one stating the he was a plebisite on indy

      dont give the unionist the opportunity to back out of competing

    55. schrodingers cat says:

      @hfud

      so would you accept that a vote for the snp on an independence only manifesto and with 50%+ support would supersede the 2014 result?

    56. Dan says:

      schrodingers cat says: at 11:15 am

      i hate to admit it but wm wont agree to a s30

      without which, it will be difficult to run a meaniful indyref2, the unionist controlled councils wouldnt participate.

      turning the holyrood election into a plebicite on indy is an option, especially with the polls at 55% for the snp

      If Unionist Councils won’t participate in an indyref sans Sec. 30 because they deem it unconstitutional in UK terms, then why would those same Councils run a Holyrood Election if SNP had Indy in their manifesto?

      IIRC the Referendum Bill’s preferred option was to utilise conventional electoral processes, but it did caveat alternative arrangements which looked to cover off Unionist Councils boycotting.

      This matter does touch on some Scots being monumentally stupid though.
      I’ll vote YES but a cannae be arsed voting in a cooncil election coz it disnae mean anything…

      FFS 🙁

    57. schrodingers cat says:

      i can smell the desperation in the unionists comments, this continued polling at 50%+ has them rattled. so much so, they dont have an answer to it

    58. jfngw says:

      @HYUFD

      Good to see you compare the UK state to the Chinese state and taking them as the role model for Westminster’s response. I appreciate your candour.

    59. schrodingers cat says:

      @dan

      i did say the only way to stop the he happening would be to shut down holyrood, but the people voted for holyrood by 89%, the councils have no mandate to stop a holyrood election taking place.

      i wouldnt put it passed some to try but holyrood would have the power to force them to participate. we dont need agreement from wm to hold a holyrood election

    60. Newburghgowfer says:

      Personally the damp squibs in the current SNP hierarchy have got no inkling to hold another referendum. They are quite happy for WM to take the blame whilst they prove to us how good little lapdogs they are running a pretendy Parliament full of useless lapdogs and manage a sweety budget but can fall back on ‘ We dont have powers’ All these years and no fallback plan or warchest of funds to fight back. They dont even have their own form of media to broadcast to the masses. Even the Catalans have Tv stations on their side. Scotland has no chance of Indy if people think the SNP is the answer!
      I’m 56 years old and left with no voting choice when only muppets of all persuasions on the ballot so have removed myself from the electoral role. I will back a new Party but only if they only have a realistic chance of getting us Indy. Its a sad state politically we live in at current time.

    61. Robert Louis says:

      And this article is the point. I grow weary of folk like Pete Wishart proudly stating that IF the SNP win more seats next year, then Boris simply cannot refuse a referendum. However, when those same folk are asked the obvious question, which is ‘WHY could Boris not refuse a referendum’, there is no answer. None.

      Look, Boris is at present ignoring advice and wilfully killing his own citizens through his actions. He is a compulsive liar and a racist, surrounded by fellow racists such as Priti Patel and Dominic Raab. He does whatsoever he chooses to do, and the SNP could win every freaking seat in Westminster AND holyrood, and he simply would not have to do a thing.

      This is why playing by Westminster’s games is utter folly. Many, many years ago, this idea of a Prime minister being forced to do something due to ‘political pressure’ was a real thing, but now now. The UK government is run by thieves, liars and crooks, and honestly, they could not give a flying f*** what NS or the Scottish government say or do.

      Just why NS and many in the SNP hierarchy still imagine Boris will ever grant a section 30 is totally beyond me. The man must be laughing his socks off at the craven subservience of the SNP leadership to Westminster. No wonder the Tories laugh at them in Westminster.

      Looking forward to tomorrow, though. Better be worth it, Rev.

    62. HYUFD says:

      Schrodinger’s Cat No, the 2014 ‘once in a generation’ No vote still stands

    63. Andy Ellis says:

      @Dan

      The logic surely is that the 2 things are not the same, and not seen as the same. A binary referendum is to make a Yes/No decision on 1 question. Elections are fought on a platform containing many policies. Plebiscitary elections are actually a more common route to independence historically than referendums. There is no real reason the international community would refuse to accept 50% + 1 voting for pro-indy parties on a specific mandate asking for it, as de facto justification for independence.

      I also think it is most unlikely local authorities would be able to hide behind the fig leaf of “plebiscitary intent” to refuse to co-operate with or hold Holyrood or Westminster elections: they’d open themselves up to a world of litigation and pain.

    64. schrodingers cat says:

      HYUFD says:
      5 July, 2020 at 12:35 pm
      Schrodinger’s Cat No, the 2014 ‘once in a generation’ No vote still stands
      ——————

      so, even if 100% of scots vote for indy in a plebicite you will still refuse them their democratic mandate?

      your union of equals will be over. fact

    65. Proud Cybernat says:

      The Keatings case at the Court of Session will be interesting. The case does not ask the court to assert Scotland’s right to a unilateral referendum but demands that the UKGov prove that we have no right to such.

      The Scotland Act which is essentially the constitution or ‘operating manual’ of the Scottish Parliament, makes no mention of referendums in its list of Reserved Powers ergo the ScotGov has the power to hold referendums and, as we know, have recently passed the Referendum Framework Bill in order to facilitate a quick referendum on any matter (i.e. any matter that is within the competence of HR).

      However, The Union & Constitution of the UK is on the list of Reserved Powers so, while our parliament does have the power to hold referendums, it is open to question whether we can hold a referendum on an issue that is on the list of Reserved Powers i.e. the Union/Constitution. This is the big grey area and the one that will probably have to be settled in court. Personally I cannot see how the UK constitution can be a ‘reserved power’ when, in Scotland’s constitutional tradition, that very power arises from the sovereign people of Scotland itself. In short, it’s a paradoxical position the UK Gov is holding onto here and not one I see they can win in court as, in my view, it is wholly untenable. The UK Gov is trying to argue that the power they have that we sovereign Scots give is not ours but theirs. This, of course, is a self-defeating argument because those who hold sovereignty cannot give it away – it is inalienable. We may lend it to WM but it still belongs to us and, as such, the power remains with us.

      But even if we skip over that particular constitutional quagmire, it is surely impossible for the UKGov to argue in the Keatings case that the Scottish Parliament does not have the power to hold a referendum on the UK Union. We have the power of referendums but there is no suggestion in the Scotland Act that we can only hold referendums on matters within the competence of the parliament. All referendums are merely advisory – a consultation of the people and have no purpose other than that. Our Claim of Right (upheld in WM only recently) asserts our right to have the government we want. As such there is noting to stop us having a referendum where we ask ourselves a question about our governance. In upholding Scotland’s Claim of Right, that is essentially what WM accepted. Because, at the end of the day, asking the question in a referendum has no legal effect. Whatever the outcome, it is up to the politicians to decide whether they want to do anything with the result of the consultation – it’s their choice. As such, merely holding a referendum asking ourselves a question regarding our governance cannot be regarded as ultra vires since it does not step on the toes of those who ultimately are in charge of effecting any decision.

      So, I see no reason why the ScotGov feels it is beholding to WM to grant a S30 before a legitimate referendum can go ahead. Once the Electoral Commission has decided on the IndyRef question (due soon I think) then ScotGov should pass a new Referendum Bill in ScotParl specifying the date of IndyRef2, send it to HMQ for Royal Assent and DARE WM to challenge it. If they do challenge then I have every confidence they will lose in court and the Bill will go to HMQ for Royal Assent i.e. the Referendum becomes legal and Unionists can boycott it all they like, the result will stand as the consultation has been legally constituted. If WM does NOT challenge then the Bill will receive Royal Assent and the referendum is legal.

      But if, by some bizarre legal trickery, ScotGov loses in court then that route is now clarified as a dead end and we can then look to a plebiscite route.

      But we’ll get nowhere unless the SNP start pushing the envelope. With the Referendum Framework Bill having been passed and with the Electoral Commission due to report soon on the IndyRef2 ballot paper question, I think they are indeed moving int his direction.

    66. lawrenceab says:

      Why cannot the SNP run on a manifesto of simply resiling from the Treaty of Union? Either Scotland is a sovereign nation (albeit not a state) or it is not. There are plenty of legal arguments (distinct legal and educational systems, established kirk…) to support the former view. Even WM has agreed the Scottish Claim of Right. So – just make the first matter of business of HR 2021 an Act of Withdrawal from the 1707 Treaty. Thereafter have nothing more to do with WM save to negotiate if they wish to. Let them stew. Call on every sympathetic nation and organisation for support. Follow this Act with a Confirmatory Referendum to be voted by all resident in Scotland. If Unionist Councils boycott it is not above the wit of man to provide alternative voting booths.

      Just do it! No country became independent by meekly asking its overlord.

    67. liz says:

      We have given the SG our permission with multiple mandates and 62% remain in the EU.

      In case you’ve forgotten, the 2019 GE was run on, ’10 days to save the union’, by the unionist parties and they got gubbed

    68. jfngw says:

      @HYUFD

      Oh good your quoting politician’s opinions, so ‘A No vote is a vote to remain in the EU’ was a opinion and not just of one or two people but of the No campaign, and it was not stated as being for a generation so is a timeless commitment. Has that condition of the referendum been kept.

    69. dakk says:

      Hyfud said
      ‘No, the 2014 ‘once in a generation’ No vote still stands’

      If that’s all you’ve got for halting democracy, it’s pretty thin gruel.

    70. Andy Ellis says:

      @lawrenceab

      Constant references and harking back to the Treaty of Union is a red herring. Forget about what a 300 year old treaty says, concentrate on the here and now and securing > 50% support from Scots voters in either a referendum or a plebiscitary election. If the former is denied to us, the quickest and simplest route to independence and international recognition is plebiscitary elections at Holyrood in 2021.

      It’s not rocket science, it’s not difficult. the $64,000 question is why so many in the SNP have set their faces against a plan which has the best chance of securing indy in our generation.

    71. schrodingers cat says:

      @liz

      yes we have, but the only way we can stay in the eu is if we become independent, and 50%+ havent given the snp a mandate for that.

      until now:)

    72. Helen Yates says:

      I agree there is nothing on this earth which will make Westminster grant a section 30, I also agree only another political force coming into being can make a difference, I have been living in hope that a new party and one with real big political hitters in it comes along, a certain person comes to mind when I think of who I would love to see lead this force, there is still time for this to happen and I have to say this article gives me hope that my dream might yet come true otherwise we can forget about seeing Independence at least in my lifetime. I look forward to visiting this sight tomorrow like never before.

    73. Willie says:

      A rather informative bit of polling that reinforces why we should not believe in the Tooth Fairy giving us a Section 30 referendum.

      But I suppose there will always be folks who believe in the tooth fairy. Too many mandates put under the pillow with nothing to show for them.

    74. schrodingers cat says:

      @andy ellis

      im not so sure they have, this route only becomes possible when we have continued support of 50%+ in the polls

      we only had 42% in the polls going into the dec 2019 ge so it wasnt really an option then, but i gaurentee you it will be getting a very serious airing in the upper eshelons of the snp today.

      bear in mind, we stil have brexit to happen, i wouldnt dismiss 60%+ but jan 2021

    75. One_Scot says:

      Lol, the ‘Once in a generation’ opinion of one individual became irrelevant when a ‘Material change of circumstances’ happened. #Brexit

      Do try and keep up. #ClutchingAtStraws.

    76. Effijy says:

      Wouldn’t it be nice if we could discuss matters like these
      With the Scottish Government directly.

      There is absolutely no doubt Westminster would kill us before
      They would give us the democratic right of a referendum, so
      What is Holyrood going to do to deliver the will of the Scottish people?

      If they have a plan on the horizon them let’s work.toward it now and if they
      Don’t they would be imposters in a party that will never deliver.

      A new party would need to be formed to represent the majority of Scots.

    77. schrodingers cat says:

      we have never given the snp a mandate for indy with 50%+ of the vote.

      if arch unionist paul hutchenson thinks it untenable to refuse a s30 on polling figures like this

      i doubt he will agree with @hfud that we can be refused indy on a plebicite with such a result

    78. Willie says:

      And meanwhile under the cloak of Brexit the Westminster prepares to strip the Scottish Parliament of the limited powers that it has.

      Out of Europe the newly emboldened British state will do as it pleases to consolidate it powers. It’s started already, and unless we push forward for independence the devolution experiment will come to an whimpered end.

      At least Pete Wishart will have gotten his pension.

    79. schrodingers cat says:

      I wonder if stu’s reveal tomorrow will be polling evidence for the support for an indy list party ?

    80. jfngw says:

      @HYUFD

      Hello, have you gone mute, realised you’re talking pish and run for cover. No wonder you always lose at elections, if your canvassing is as pathetic as your comments here then even BoJo wouldn’t vote for you, and he’s not the brightest in litter. Buy a pole, that will attract his attention.

    81. robbo says:

      Willie says:
      5 July, 2020 at 12:57 pm

      You leave the tooth fairy out of it Willie!

      I always got ma widden thru-penny bit, without fail,they do exist .

    82. jfngw says:

      ‘in the litter’, corrected something more crass incorrectly.

    83. GordonD says:

      A S30 order does not prevent Scotland from holding Indy Ref 2. S30 merely holds all parties to stand by the result and negotiate.

    84. schrodingers cat says:

      what @hfud doest realise is while he would support bojo saying no to a 55% vote for indy in a holyrood election

      he would just be denying those 55% who voted for indy, he would also be denying the wishes of a substantial number of unionist voters who wouldnt be happy with denying scottish democracy

      interesting to see who would be left, defending the union. certainly it doesnt appear that paul hutchenson would

    85. jfngw says:

      I believe today’s Scottish Sunday Politics was one of those events you see at Tory party conferences, where they invite a journalist along to ask pre-scripted and party approved questions and then let them ramble on unchallenged. Obviously I’m only going on reports I would not soil my eyes by forcing them to endure this.

    86. schrodingers cat says:

      @jhngw

      id rather squirt Cillit Bang in my eyes than watch brewer

    87. HYUFD says:

      jfngw Nothing further needs saying, Boris has a Tory majority and the vast majority of Tory voters want him to block indyref2 for a generation which he will do.

    88. Adrian B says:

      Boris is on borrowed time, they are already planning his replacement. The timing of the next general election is going to be interesting.

    89. ahundredthidiot says:

      HYUFD

      I would be interested to hear what you think would merit indyref2?

      remember now – democracy must stand or bad things tend to happen, so, what are your own personal ‘conditions’ to ‘allow’ it?

    90. schrodingers cat says:

      @hfud

      but he cant block a holyrood election

    91. stonefree says:

      Sadly Stuart is again correct.
      The SNP have dangled the carrot, and got voted in. I believe with little intention of pursuing Independence.Comfy in the green seats and £81,000 plus expenses (staff,travel,hotel/accommodation etc etc)
      Plus Committees payments at £15,000 each…….£150,000 pa easy.
      I find it strange there is no Benefit in Kind Tax Liability levied on MPs
      MP have no incentive , the odd one yes , in general not.
      The setting up a new party quickly? It can be done
      Brexit was launched in January 2019(registered at CompanyHouse a couple of months earlier) election in May 2019,
      A very short time frame
      It could be done BUT a lot of donors throw (a lot of)money at the Brexit party , It was a MSM favorite
      Donors on the horizon? Not seeing that

    92. Cath says:

      I had really hoped nobody with anything to do with the EU had noticed Pete Wishart’s awful scribblings ??

    93. Ian Brotherhood says:

      From the final hyperlink in the post:

      ‘Butcher said the debate about the EU in Scotland seemed to show “a lamentable lack of understanding” which does “not fill the international community with confidence Scotland is a pragmatic independent EU member state in waiting”.’

      That is just mortifying.

      Wishart seems to do more harm than good every time he opens his gob, and as for Mhairi Hunter…there are no words.

      Here’s hoping tomorrow gives us something to look forward to.

      🙁

    94. jfngw says:

      @ahundrethidiot

      hyufd believes nothing we do would merit another referendum, as far as he is concerned England owns us and they will decide what Scotland can do. He is a little colonialist at heart.

      ‘He states it clearly BoJo has an English majority and he will block us.’. He is the Grand Master of the House Jocks.

    95. MightyS says:

      I hope tomorrow is worth waiting for.

      Bring it, Stu.

    96. iain mhor says:

      That’s pretty much why I’ve had trouble understanding what a Plan ‘B’ is. Because I was probably misunderstanding not merely Plan ‘A’ but the concept of what a ‘plan’ is in this context.
      I had thought the ‘Gold standard’ etc and the most democratic
      process was just ‘A Referendum’ – therefore the premium designation : Plan A – which also encompassed all the means to achieve that. I didn’t understand the entire ‘plan’ meant simply requesting one via the least democratic process possible. It made no sense to me how that was the “A” in the Apotheosis, the Apex, the Alpha, or how it constituted a plan at all.

      “I have no money but Im going to get ice cream!” – Oh, how do you plan on getting it? “Ask for it” – Hmmm bit of a shit plan, not quite a plan so much as chancing it really. Not quite thought this through have you?
      Any other plan? – “Take the ice cream – It’s my Ice cream anyway!” – Hmm again, not much of a plan, how do you propose to prove that? – “That’s the clever bit, see….” – Yes, I see, now that’s more like a plan.

      Anyway, my point being (as always) any so called ‘Plan B’ contains and confers the ability to hold a referendum. If the great constitutional and sovereign question is put to the proof and falls in Scotland’s favour; Independence can be achieved (like many other countries) via a democratic Scottish Parliamentary process. That power also allows Scotland to hold a refererendum if it so chooses – So as it is a ‘gold standard’ democratic process – why wouldn’t we?

      I will continue to wilfully misunderstand what ‘Plan A’ is.
      The S30 request only holds as the most democratic process (Gold standard etc) if the UK is ‘One Nation’, ‘No Borders’, ‘No Union’. Westminster will double down on that and it will have to be put to the proof. Not least because England, ultimately will demand it. No-one is going to be allowed to erase England.

      Taken to its obvious conclusion; the UK must be found to be England (Scotland was extinguished) that, or proven otherwise and if otherwise, then the issue is settled. Scotland has the constitutional powers to do as it pleases – up to and including dissolving the Union – by whatever process is seen fit – Parliamentary election/ referendum/ other.

      As I mentioned elsewhere, the Covid response and the border question, is hovering dangerously close to Westminster declaring ultimately for ‘One Nation’ and extinguishing Scotland (if not also England) The ultimate proving may be coming closer than we think.

    97. mike cassidy says:

      The only way a ‘real’ indyref2 is possible is if the SNP hold the balance of power at Westminster after a general election.

      Everything else is hot air.

      And given the lukewarm nature of the desire for actual independence that is gradually being revealed inside the SNP

      How keen would they actually be for one even under those circumstances?

      It looks like the post 2021 route is going to have to be a left-field one.

      Maybe a deliberately obstructive SNP at Westminster and Holyrood

      Maybe a public encouragement of English independence that would give birth to a Farage-type figure shouting

      “Will no one rid me of this turbulent country?”

    98. jfngw says:

      @ian brotherhood

      Wishart idea about the EU sounds stupid unless he was just asking them to oversee the vote, it is obvious they could not sanction one. If not his grasp on reality seems tenuous.

      Paul Butcher does not speak for the EU though, the EPC is a independent think tank, which usually means they are not independent if it is anything like the ones in the UK. And his statement at the end does not look to be unbiased to me, ex Cambridge university.

    99. Beaker says:

      @Andy Ellis says:
      5 July, 2020 at 12:52 pm
      “It’s not rocket science, it’s not difficult. the $64,000 question is why so many in the SNP have set their faces against a plan which has the best chance of securing indy in our generation.”

      Because standing on the single issue of an independence referendum is too risky. All of the Brexit arguments put forward by the Scot Govt will be thrown back at them by the unionist parties – talk about irony.

    100. Andy Ellis says:

      @Beaker

      I’m not saying it IS a single issue.It’s just another part of the problem for this and EVERY subsequent election either to Holyrood or Westminster in the event the indyref route is closed off by a britnat veto.

    101. jfngw says:

      @schrodingers cat

      Even if he goes down the closing Holyrood route in the end he can’t block a Westminster election, though I suspect he would like to. The bell is tolling for the union, grab your seats to watch the demise of a never once great institution.

    102. Republicofscotland says:

      “as i said, i think we are on our own, the 50%+ election result would be nice to have, but no guarantee the eu will come to our rescue”

      Schrodingers Cat.

      This from the EU’s Paul Butcher referring to Wisharts column.

      “Or does he mean the European Council, which would point out that Brexit negotiations are ongoing and any comment on British internal affairs would in any case be inappropriate.”

      I’d like to take from that, that whilst the UK and the EU are in post-Brexit trade talks, that any Scottish pro-independence talk just now within the EU is a non starter. I think a no deal might benefit Scotland with regards to independence.

    103. Capella says:

      Except Pete Wishart didn’t actually say that. What he said was:

      However, if the Tories keep blocking a vote, then “this is when we should be prepared to move beyond the Section 30 process”.

      http://archive.fo/UJMYk

      He is saying we should design our own referendum and ask the EU to sanction the process and enable Scotland rejoining the EU. What is wrong with that? Craig Murray has advocated asking the OCSE to oversee a referendum in Scotland. A very good idea IMO.

      Paul Butcher used to work for Alan Smyth so should be up to date with the Scottish situation. Granted the way the question is framed dictates the way the answer is framed.

    104. jfngw says:

      @Republicofscotland

      Paul Butcher doesn’t work for the EU but an independent think tank, it’s not even financed by the EU.

    105. schrodingers cat says:

      ros

      the eu position regarding scotland may change in jan, after the uk is no longer an eu member

      but i dont think they will commit to anything they havnt said before

      i agree with the comments about wishart asking the eu to sanction a s30 for us. seems a strange and pointless request

    106. Doug says:

      The SNP/SG continues to meekly obey Westminster’s rules even as Westminster changes the rules to suit themselves. Ridiculous.

      FFS! SNP/SG. Do something!

    107. There are other options. Why keep asking for something you know is not going to be given? There are 2 options that have been suggested by well known Independence bloggers.
      1. Make the Holyrood elections a vote for independence.
      2. Annul the Union then hold a referendum.

      Either of these is a positive move instead of the current repetition of asking for permission.

    108. Colin Alexander says:

      Schrodinger’s Cat.

      “For the record, I have not endorsed the Plan B advanced by Angus Brendan MacNeil and Chris McEleny, which I understand to involve using the 2021 election as a proxy vote.

      I am not sure that plan has been fully developed or addresses how you bring the UK Government to the negotiating table, which will be vital. However, I think the SNP should consider what we do if Boris Johnson continues to refuse a Section 30 Order and I applaud Angus and Chris for trying to stimulate that debate”.

      J. Cherry

      Source: http://www.thenational.scot/news/18554952.joanna-cherry-plan-b-must-developed-bring-uk-talks-table/

    109. Colin Alexander says:

      The UK IS no longer a member of the EU.

      It’s only in a transition agreement.

    110. Republicofscotland says:

      Capella.

      Oh I’m not quoting Wishart, I 100% agree with him for a change, I’m quoting Butcher, but now I know he worked for Smyth, I have second thoughts on his opinion.

      http://news.leportale.com/doc?id=210457805

    111. MightyS says:

      I never understand why folk disregard the Treaty of Union so easily. Like it’s so old, it’s irrelevant or something.

      We are either IN a union – or we’re not. The Treaty was an agreement for trade, it was not a bill of sale. Subsequent alterations to it did not mutate it into a bill of sale either.

      It is internationally recognised by the EU and the UN and the ROTW and yet, we can’t use it?

      If the tables were turned and WM needed to get rid of us quick, they would absolutely dissolve the Union. And there would be nothing we or the rest of the world could do about it.

    112. Capella says:

      @ RoS – that’s a fair blizzard of quotes!
      Let’s not get over excited about things nobody said.
      I would be surprised if the SG had not already sounded out the EU on various scenarios, including moving out of Westminster’s ambit without a S30 – if necessary.

    113. Adrian B says:

      @stgonefree,

      You know that Income is taxed, that isn’t take home. You also know that MPs do actually work. You make it out to be some sort of cushy job – I can tell you that none of them feel that it is particularly easy or lucrative. Sure it is a **** ton more than I have ever earned but it isn’t anywhere near £100,000 far less your £150,000…

      Brexit stated as soon as the UK joined the EU, Tory rebels have always had a number of anti EU figures. Thatcher had do deal with them in her own way, but the press like the Sun, Express and Mail have always been anti EU with anti EU and blame game headlines and stories from bent bent cucumbers to immigration.

      Politicians from Labour, Lib Dems and Conservatives have often blamed the EU during TV / radio appearances for the EU being the reason why XYZ policy isn’t working or is needed.

      There has been additional support from far right groups and characters like Steve Bannon more recently. UKIP was founded in 1993, but it took a long time to captivate the left and the right in England as a vehicle to leave the EU and make Nigel farage a house hold name that was always on the tele. In November 2018 he set up the Brexit party for the EU elections.

      There is known to have been Russian interference and help in creating Brexit as Putin is not a fan of the EU, like Trump he doesn’t want a block of European countries standing up for employment law, regulations on food and drink or a strong European market with links to countries around the world for policy or trading.

      People who want to get rid of the EU do so to make American, China and Russia the big players that set the agenda and make the rules that benefit them at the cost of all the others.

      How Brexit happened and how much it has cost over the last forty plus years is unknown – but it isn’t like setting up a little known Indy only party.

    114. Andy Ellis says:

      Before everyone gets too excited about what the EU will or won’t do, let’s just pause for a moment to remember how they’ve helped our Catalan friends, and all the pressure they’ve brought to bear to stop Madrid jailing Catalan parliamentary deputies……

      The EU isn’t the deus ex machina which will somehow deliver the independence our own countrymen lack the cojones to demand as of right. Brexit is undoubtedly an influence, and Westminster has few friends and even less influence in Brussels, but the EU is only going to take us seriously when we take ourselves seriously.

    115. Famous15 says:

      MightyS that is exactly why I highlighted Johnson’s response to China on breaking what was supposed to have been agreed on Hong Kong.

      Boris sees a Treaty when it suits HIM.

      We need the cohones to stick it to the man.

    116. Stuart MacKay says:

      So, if Scots can choose how they want to be governed then what happens when they choose not to be governed either by Westminster or by Holyrood?

      Imagine if the SNP split and the hostile to independence part sided with the Unionists and wanted to maintain Holyrood yet there was a majority (51%) for something else.

      It seems to me that all the options discussed so far are dead in the water in that situation with no hope of recourse.

      Anyone care to give a quick overview of why that’s not possible?

    117. Mike d says:

      MightyS. 2.47pm yes,You can be sure if England had the oil/gas,water,renewables, etc, and Scotland had zilch, and were truly a drain on English resources, they would discard us like an old shoe tomorrow ,whether we liked it or not. And yet we can’t shake these f*****s loose,unbelievable.

    118. mark whittet says:

      Rev Stu,

      Surely you have read this bit;
      http://www.scotlandsindependencereferendumparty.scot/new-poll-shows-that-scotlands-independence-referendum-party-with-former-snp-leader-alex-salmond-as-a-leading-candidate-is-set-to-win-23-msp-seats-and-become-second-largest-party-i

      “A 100% MSP Scottish Independence-mandate is not going to happen.

      “But 92 SNP and SIRP MSPs with a 71% mandate is strong enough to break the Scottish-UK constitutional log-jam – even where the UK government does not WANT to grant the power to the Scottish Parliament to hold a bona fide Scottish Independence Referendum and while the SNP on its own CANNOT force the UK government to do so.

      “Then a Scot-Govt (comprising the SNP and SIRP with 92 MSPs) would request ‘permission’ from the Westminster-Govt for the S.30 power to hold a second Scottish Independence Referendum.

      The Westminster-govt would then, of course, still say ‘No’ to a second Scottish Independence Referendum.

      So the SNP and SIRP Scot-Government with 92 MSPs – should then unilaterally declare Independence – declaring that 71% of Holyrood MSPs is self-evidently and a probatively strong and democratically-achieved majority vote in favour of its number one of policy of achieving Independence for Scotland as proof beyond doubt for a Scottish Independence referendum.

      See here for full independent explanation of international constitutional law; – https://tinyurl.com/vekmwcb

      And the rest of democratic world (ie the European Union, EU, the United Nations, UN, and former UK colonies in Australia, Canada, New Zealand, India and in Africa, etc) would agree – and recognise Scotland’s Independence.

    119. schrodingers cat says:

      Imagine if the SNP split and the hostile to independence part sided with the Unionists and wanted to maintain Holyrood yet there was a majority (51%) for something else.

      —————–

      ?? what part is hostile to indy? where is this other party you mentioned?

      55% intend voting for snp in holyrood election

    120. Colin Alexander says:

      http://pensionersforindependence.scot/2020/07/04/a-way-forward-to-independence/

      Craig Murray: Ways Forward To Independence

    121. HYUFD says:

      Jfngw The key stat is 58% of English Tories and 85% of Scottish Tories want indyref2 blocked but 54% of English Labour voters would allow indyref2.

      So realistically Westminster will only possibly allow indyref2 if Starmer becomes UK PM after the next general election, particularly if he is reliant on SNP support to get the role. However Starmer would also return the UK to the single market at least in all likelihood and probably offer devomax too, ironically reducing the chance of a Yes vote

    122. HYUFD says:

      Mark Whittet Wrong, the UN did not recognise Catalonia when it declared UDI from Spain despite having a nationalist majority government. Hence Sturgeon correctly says independence has to be won legally and after a Westminster approved referendum

    123. Dan says:

      Fair play to HYUFD on carrying the longest stick with a carrot on it I’ve ever seen btl here.

    124. schrodingers cat says:

      @hfud

      no, an indyref2 with a s30 is nicolas prefered option, nothing written in stone

      if bojo continues to reject the s30 then we will move to a holyrood indy plebicite.

      the people will get a say on this regardless of what you think

    125. jfngw says:

      @HYUFD

      You do realise that 85% of Scottish Tories is in fact now only 14.5% of the Scottish electorate and 58% of English Tories is around 25% of the English electorate.

      You are such a democrat

      The sun on the meadow is summery warm
      The stag in the forest runs free
      But gather together to greet the storm
      Scotland belongs to me

    126. defo says:

      I’m not sure, but when you consider that Holyrood is only one of three devolved administrations, how would any attack on one, for their audacious aspirations for agency, look to the others, mother England, and the World?

      It isn’t the blond buffoon who is holding the winning hand. It’s us.
      Always was really.

    127. schrodingers cat says:

      if the snp win 55-60% of the vote in a he on a unique ticket on indy, opposition to scottish indy will tank in scotland and also in england

      for english voters to reject the demand would be paramount to declaring that the union is over. there would be no support for that in england

    128. jfngw says:

      I see a Tory MSP wants to hold the SNP to account for its handling of the virus, lets see if he’s hiding a good hand because it looks a bit ropey to me, maybe he will call BoJo as a witness (only if it’s not under oath obviously)

      Hey hyufd, you should try for Holyrood, you can’t be stupider than this idiot, you don’t even need to be elected to become a Tory MSP. Your name could be on a list, that should suit you perfectly.

    129. boris says:

      That decision was not long in manifesting. Boris Johnson has employed him as a “Special Advisor” working out of the Policy Unit in 10 Downing Street.

      His remit is the “Union” which vests him with a powerful yet unelected influence over Scottish affairs.

      A hardline Unionist he will rapidly remove many powers from the Holyrood parliament making life very uncomfortable for Scots over the next few years.

      Scots wishing to break free from the political stranglehold of Westminster will need to abandon any hope of another referendum and devise a new strategy framed around the constitutional right of Scots to decide their own government.

      https://caltonjock.com/2019/09/05/luke-graham-special-advisor-appointed-hammer-of-the-scots-by-boris-johnson-and-hell-wield-it-fast-and-hard/

    130. Breeks says:

      I’m very curious to hear views on how a unilateral declaration that the 2021 elections to a devolved assembly are a de-facto plebiscite on Independence will fare in securing International Recognition, will apparently be recognised by Westminster without a Section 30 agreement, and will presumably draw it’s constitutional legitimacy and point of origin from the same place Catalonia did.

      Listen to the words people. Democracy without constitutional legitimacy is just an opinion poll. Democracy is ephemeral. It is NOT by itself empowering. It needs constitutional personality and legal legitimacy.

      The “thing” that makes Scotland’s vote meaningful is the sovereign constitution which underpins it. The people are sovereign. If you abandon that constitution, then your claim to be sovereign is hostage to chance. It becomes a thing requiring to be recognised, just like a UDI. No better or worse, but the same.

      We DO NOT need to reinvent the wheel. Scotland already has the sovereign constitution of a Nation which secured International Recognition in 1328. We should be defending that precious, recognised sovereign constitution we already have until we draw our last breath. It is the very essence of what Scotland is. We are bloody fools to abandon it, and replace it with what? The Scotland Act? Are you kidding???

      Defending that constitution and writing a new one is the difference between liberating an ancient Scotland and freeing it from subjugation, and creating a whole new “Sevco” Scotland from scratch.

      Why in God’s name must we make this so difficult for ourselves? Defend what we have, and use it to create a Constitutional Backstop to derail Brexit. Then, we win.

      What is the down side? Just humour me and do it.

    131. HYUFD says:

      Jfngw We have a Tory majority government at Westminster and it will decide until 2024, that is the point

    132. HYUFD says:

      Schrodinger’s Cat A direct quote from Sturgeon ‘As she faced opposition demands for clarification at Holyrood, Sturgeon insisted she had no plans to call a second referendum without a section 30 agreement, similar to the one agreed by the Scottish and UK governments in 2012, which paved the way for the 2014 vote.

      “I am not open to that possibility,” she told reporters. “I want and consider that the basis of the referendum should be the same as the last time. [The] legal basis in future should be the same as the legal basis in the past.” ‘

      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/07/scotland-can-hold-referendum-without-go-ahead-from-uk

    133. schrodingers cat says:

      will be recognised by Westminster without a Section 30 agreement,

      we dont need a Section 30 agreement to hold a holyrood election

      getting 50%+ support is something we have never given the snp or independence getting that in itself, re affirms our constitutional right to decide our destiny.

      I maintain that in such a case, support in opposing out right to be independent would drop among unionists in scotland and in england, exactly because to opposite would not only undermine scotlands right to decide, our sovereignty, but it would undermine the legal and moral authority of the uk

      we would be better employed looking at possible ways to bring forward the election to the end of this year, before brexit

      that is our only real chance of remaining in the eu

      what does the covid timetable tell us about the earliest opportunity we can hold an election?

    134. Andy Ellis says:

      @Breeks

      The international community decides what countries are accorded recognition. If the UK refused to recognise Scottish independence after >50% of Scots vote for pro-independence parties in an election (whether for Westminster or Holyrood) which is specifically called by indy parties as being a mandate for independence, then that’s it. Historically referendums aren’t the most common path to secession from a larger unit.

      The attitude of “rump UK”, whilst important, is not actually decisive: it’s the attitude of the rest of the world that counts. Some states still refuse to recognise Kosovo for example, but in general once “most” UN members accept you as an independent state, that’s it – particularly if those granting recognition include major powers and big hitters like UN security council, G7, G20 etc.

      Appeals to constitutionalism, the sovereignty of the people, the Claim of Right, the Declaration of Arbroath, the Treaty of Union etc. etc. are in the end fruitless. We need a convincing majority to vote for independence, in response to a clear referendum question OR at plebiscitary elections. Anything less invites the Catalan stand-off. British nationalist intransigence may delay us, or make it a rockier ride, but in the end it can only stop us if we accept that they are entitled to do so.

    135. Ottomanboi says:

      I have never understood the logic of not going to the polls on a clear independence ticket. Independence ought to be the SNP’s top concern and to hell with the ‘one trick pony’ barbs from the sidelines. Some trick, some pony!
      @HYUFD
      The constitution of the Spanish state does not sanction ‘regional’ secession, no modern constitutions actually do.

      Article 2 of the Spanish Constitution is as follows:
      “The Consititution is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation, common and indivisible homeland to all Spaniards, and recognises the right to autonomy of the nationalities and regions that make it up and solidarity amongst them.”.
      [La Constitución se fundamenta en la indisoluble unidad de la Nación española, patria común e indivisible de todos los españoles, y reconoce y garantiza el derecho a la autonomía de las nacionalidades y regiones que la integran y la solidaridad entre todas ellas]

      The British state does not have a written constitution or even any overt legal expression of the notion of ‘indissoluble unity’. Scotland, unlike Catalunya, has a distinct legal system and a parliament set up under its aegis. In Scotland there is belief in popular not, as in England, parliamentary sovereignty. Westminster ‘approved’ the first referendum because it believed it would fail. A second referendum which all the indicators suggest may not fail is rather unlikely to gain Westminster’s ‘approved’.
      What option then for the pro-independence forces?

    136. Socrates MacSporran says:

      England as the UK only accepted the need to give India its freedom because, in the wake of WWII – the nation was skint and it could not afford to continue to rule India.

      It was the UK’s continued hard times which forced England as the UK to divest itself of its world-wide colonies int he 1960s and 1970s.

      Today, the reality is different. England as the UK cannot afford to divest itself of Scotland – because Scotland subsidises England as the UK.

      This is political reality. They will NEVER let us go while they need our riches.

      Particularly now there is clear evidence that Independence is the preferred choice of the Scottish electorate – they simply will dig-in their heels and refuse a Section 30 order.

      It is now up to the SNP to find a way of by-passing this impasse.

      The question we int he wider independence movement should be demanding an answer to is: Why is the SNP leadership not fighting with all they have to do this?

    137. Dan says:

      jfngw says: at 3:40 pm

      @HYUFD You do realise that 85% of Scottish Tories is in fact now only 14.5% of the Scottish electorate and 58% of English Tories is around 25% of the English electorate.

      Aye, and HYUFD’s Party don’t seem too concerned about reducing that vote share by betraying farmers and the electorate with regard to maintaining decent farming practices and food standards.

      https://twitter.com/PaulWheelhouse/status/1279376145083924480

    138. Andy Ellis says:

      @SC

      The Scottish Government lacks the balls to provoke an early Holyrood election. Sturgeon has already nailed her colours to the mast of the “Gold Standard” 2014 type indyref.

      A more radical politician would long since have said that if British nationalists refused to honour the Edinburgh Agreement precedent, we would use plebiscitary elections. If she and her government stood down, the Presiding Officer would be bound to call fresh elections within 14 days I think if no other candidate could form an administration.

      The likelihood of that is precisely zero.

    139. potter says:

      Not been here for a while, is this still the place that wants Sturgeon removed?

    140. ebreah says:

      Just my two cents on this poll. The Independence movement has crossed the 53.1% rubicon. All those gradualist mantras have worked, surprisingly. Now is up to Nicola and the SNP to take it a notch higher. This may be a double edged sword for her and the SNP. There is about ten months left to the election. I suspect the situation in UK will get worse in all aspects. She can no longer afford to make the same offer at that point. If she does and another party does offer independence (whatever route it may be), I think the electorate will take. About the timing of the emergence of a new independence party, I think there is still time. With reference to the the Malaysian GE in 2018, I believed the old ruling party (now in a coalition in the current government) will scrape through. However in the last two weeks there was a perceptible shift in the mood of the electorate and that was reflected in the election results. The main concerns for me regarding the new party are; a) can they organise and get enough candidates within time and b) will the messaging/campaigning be coherent and clear. If they get the two aspects right, they will get seats regardless of the high figures as per the polls.

    141. jfngw says:

      How much does it cost, here’s a donation if you just look away.

      One for our visiting Tory supporters.

      https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EcHRzIuXsAADbWL?format=jpg&name=medium

    142. schrodingers cat says:

      @andyellis

      thats a tad disengenious, support in the polls in dec 2019 was at 42%, so the snp used their manifesto to create a mandate for indyref2, correctly in MHI, we got 45% in the actual vote. we won a mandate to demand a s30 for indyref2. had the snp used their manifesto to create a mandate for independence, we would have won nothing

      it is only since jan that the polls have crept up past 50%, todays poll confirms 54% support for indy in the last poll was not a fluke and that as long as the polls stay at this level, for the 1st the snp can use their manifesto to create a mandate for independence

    143. schrodingers cat says:

      @andyellis

      im not sure calling an election this way is as simple as that, it has never happened before

      by my point remains, today is the 1st opportunity to even consider taking such an action

    144. CameronB Brodie says:

      I was going to remind the cat to remember he’s admitted he is unsure of the law, and ask him to stop asserting a legal opinion that is unsubstantiated. That would be to single the cat out though, as he is not alone in having an opinion that lacks logic and legal substance. So I’ll pick on someone else, who I think is indicative of the current SNP leadership’s competence.

      I’m a team player, so I had held my tongue when Mhairi Hunter was insulting those who are critical of gender, as ‘wingnuts”. Things have moved on since then, so I’m prepared to be a bit more honest now. IMHO, Mhairi Hunter is a minion of cultural, legal, and political parochialism, who is clearly under-prepared for the gate-keeping role she appears to have claimed for herself. She is completely out of her depth and actually poses a threat to Scottish democracy.

      Sexual difference and self-understanding – a comparative perspective on the liberation of bodily conditioned human beings

      Abstract
      In this article I will argue that the feminist theoretical paradigm in approaching the issue of sexual difference should be adjusted. Feminism at present mainly relies on phenomenology of the other and pays much attention to the significant ambiguity of the human body.

      But I will explain that the phenomenological argument for the sexual asymmetry is invalid. All human beings with gender are bodily conditioned. Gender issues must be integrated into the universal human impulse of liberation which is based on a self-understanding. The gendered self is culturally shaped.
      An intercultural comparative perspective can allow us to obtain a wider horizon to explore the relationship between a person’s sexually conditioned being and his self-understanding.

      In my discussion of gender and self, the contrast between China and the West is exemplary. Despite different self-understandings with regard to sex, the pursuit of freedom can be universally noticed. Notwithstanding the sexually embodied existence, human beings in both the West and East have generally theorized and practiced the spiritualization of self in metaphysics and religions.

      In order to make this point clear I take early Indian Buddhism as an example. My argumentation may seem intercultural and comparative, but fundamentally I am problem-oriented and point to the dimension beyond cultural comparison.

      Keywords:
      sex, gender, self, liberation, freedom, feminism, phenomenology, ancient Chinese philosophy, Buddhism

      https://journals.openedition.org/estetica/5956

    145. schrodingers cat says:

      Socrates MacSporran says:
      It is now up to the SNP to find a way of by-passing this impasse.

      The question we int he wider independence movement should be demanding an answer to is: Why is the SNP leadership not fighting with all they have to do this?
      ————————————–

      thanks to the increase in support from the scottish voters, i think they just did

    146. callmedave says:

      UK Home Office mandarins obstruct quarantine checks in Scotland’s airports for two weeks!

      https://archive.is/ZBGbV

    147. Auld Rock says:

      Would many of you shut-up and instead stop playing the yoons game – DIVIDE & RULE. You are doing their work from them and as for some of the people promoting these daft ideas my friends across the Nort Sea in Norway have a name for you, Quisling.

    148. CameronB Brodie says:

      Auld Rock
      I’m only trying to help the SNP appreciate their own internal competence and limitations. I’m sorry, but I’m not prepared to allow the ignorance of others further undermine my access to human rights.

      Full text

      Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World First Published May 8, 2020
      Theorizing Moral Cognition: Culture in Action, Situations, and Relationships

      Abstract
      Dual-process theories of morality are approaches to moral cognition that stress the varying significance of emotion and deliberation in shaping judgments of action. Sociological research that builds on these ideas considers how cross-cultural variation alters judgments, with important consequences for what is and is not considered moral behavior. Yet lacking from these approaches is the notion that, depending on the situation and relationship, the same behavior by the same person can be considered more or less moral.

      The author reviews recent trends in sociological theorizing about morality and calls attention to the neglect of situational variations and social perceptions as mediating influences on judgment. She then analyzes the moral machine experiment to demonstrate how situations and relationships inform moral cognition. Finally, the author suggests that we can extend contemporary trends in the sociology of morality by connecting culture in thinking about action to culture in thinking about people.

      https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2378023120916125#

      Keywords
      cognition, culture, morality, perception, situations

    149. Witchy says:

      Please excuse me if I sound like a political idiot. We have a mandate to use before the end of this parliament.
      I don’t understand why we are waiting for another election to give it more credence.
      I want to believe that Wishart is a man with a plan…but we’re all fallible. I find RW’s stance off-key at times and doesn’t resonance with many.
      As far as I can see we could have a Ref, with or without S30, even if it’s only provisionary, like the EU Ref. Which was upheld as final, and not to be repeated! (eh?)

      There is nothing to stop another Ref. It could take four to five months to organise. Look how fast the last GE took. I will NOT vote the Greens…so I look forward to an Independent party’s creation, and look forward to one that takes a critical look at the GRC and does not call female MSP’s ‘wanker of the week’ Selfish I know.
      At the moment to gain Independence it’s Hobson’s Choice. Either SNP or going nowhere.
      I am reluctant to vote for them again. They are blocking supporters, and ostracising them from their party. (Bearsden being an example). I feel they are being influenced by powerful lobby groups, and throwing away the women’s votes. Concerning.
      So I have to ask myself do the SNP want Independence when a lot of their actions are being seen as negative?
      I also feel that we should be looking at the Nordic nations for inspiration. Something to be discussed after Indy perhaps, and put on the table for further debate.
      As I started off saying, I am a political idiot, so treat this as me having a mental kick-a-bout with my thoughts.

    150. callmedave says:

      Figs today a bit unclear

      N. Ireland no longer reporting weekend figures.
      Scotland figs delayed today by technical hitch.

      Wales…..today…….01……Total……. 1531…BBC
      England…today…….19……Total……. no data
      ==================================================
      UK……..today…….22……Total…….44220…BBC official.

      PS:
      The ONS (England and Wales)

      Still to release figs for care homes and other ‘not in hospital’
      deaths today. I’m sure Auntie will tell us soon.

    151. Capella says:

      @ callmedave 5.20 – I heard that in Politics Scotland today Gordon Brewer allowed Jackson Carlaw all the time he wanted to rant at the SNP about its failure to deal with airport arrivals’ quarantine. England can do it.

      It turns out the Home office was blocking the data thus preventing the SG from quarantining arrivals – a wheeze of Dominic Cummings’ someone suggested earlier.

      How can Gordon Brewer justify colluding with the Tories to attack the Scottish Health Minister? He’s not a journalist but a unionist shill. But we all knew that already.

      Whatever happened to the SNP Rebuttal Unit? Is it up and running yet? Prof John Robertson is doing a great job though.
      Thx for link:
      https://archive.is/ZBGbV

    152. Dan says:

      @Capella

      Apparently there’s been nowt needing rebutted since June 19th…

      https://twitter.com/thesnpmedia

      Maybe they are short staffed? I heard montague90 is still looking for a job… what could go wrong!

    153. jfngw says:

      @Capella

      You could almost imagine they withheld access deliberately just to give Carlaw his rant opportunity. Manipulation for political points scoring is all they have, complete empty vessels, and few emptier than Mr Carlaw.

      I see he was at home, was there any notable paintings on his wall.

    154. Graham says:

      From the volume and intensity of responses to your post, Rev, I am in no doubt that your pessimism will not be borne out.
      I avidly read everything and anything about the quest for Independence. I am regularly bemused by commentators thinking they inhabit some kind of bubble, excluded from which are ‘ordinary’ folk like me and millions like me.
      If, as you predict, Westminster denies what may prove to be an overwhelming desire of the Scottish people to determine their own future, what do you anticipate the reaction of the Scots will be? Not once have I ever seen any predictions from these commentators about that reaction, as if somehow we are all impotent bystanders. Can I gently point out that your ‘power’ only exists because folk like me lend you my support. The same applies to those elected at Holyrood and Westminster. Power ultimately rests with me. Please, please don’t underestimate that.

    155. Andy Ellis says:

      @Graham

      That’s only a convincing threat if “we”, and also of course the Britnat government and establishment take the prospect of ordinary Scots voters manning the barricades remotely seriously.

      Of course it may happen if BoJo was stupid enough to e.g. close Holyrood down, but forgive me if I have my doubts. Scots voters so far have proven fairly sanguine about being taken for mugs and having their repeated mandates ignored. AUOB marches may make the minority who participate feel good, but it’s hardly La Diada is it?

      Can you honestly see Sturgeon and her mates going to prison like her Catalan counterparts?

      Handsome is as handsome does Graham. Scots talk a good game, let us see them walk the walk, eh?

    156. Capella says:

      Oh thx Dan – I had no idea there was a twitter account. I suppose that’s it then.

      I still think Prof Robertson is excellent at this e.g 30th June:

      Why is a Scottish civil servant misrepresenting the evidence to his own committee and enabling media exaggeration?

      Shows how the Labour chaired Health and Sport Committee allow a civil servant to completely fabricate a report summary which is then fed to the BBC to run an SNP bad story. To get this story he had to read the report and check the original submissions.
      http://archive.fo/tXeiI

    157. schrodingers cat says:

      sunday mail has published the poll and prof curtice’s comments

      btl comments are hilarious, most along the lines of good, eff off 🙂

      @hfud, sorry me old fruit refusing indy after a landslide indy win in holyrood wont get the support from the english voters

    158. Beaker says:

      Shitstorm about quarantining airport passengers and then Freeman comes on the telly today and admits that passengers at Scottish airports are not being screened.

      Meanwhile, “Public Health England said they had been contacting about one in five arrivals to England and Northern Ireland to ask them if they were self-isolating. They said the majority confirmed that they were.” Of course they will say they are. How the fuck do you check?

      Australia locks down tower blocks, China locks down anything with a pulse. Germany tests anyone who breaks wind… someone here let Farage back in…

      Rant over 🙂

    159. jfngw says:

      Don’t know if I’m keen on a rebuttal unit, it gives the opposition the ability to generate stories just to produce the rebuttals. You then come across as the party always denying things, it’s very negative.

      More useful to have a promotions unit highlighting what’s been achieved, keep the opposition on the back foot always trying to negate the positive message.

    160. Neil Mackenzie says:

      Were still framing this issue in terms of “permission” being “granted” even though the right to choose already belongs to the people of Scotland.

      The whole idea of permission is a misconceived farce. It’s like saying someone needs permission from their neighbour to mow their own lawn with their own lawnmower. It doesn’t matter, at all, what one neighbour thinks about the other neighbour mowing their own lawn and it doesn’t matter, at all, how much bigger one neighbour’s lawn is than the other.

    161. MaggieC says:

      Rev Stu ,

      I don’t know if you realise that your poll re shutting the border got a mention on Good Morning Scotland this morning during the paper review .

      It comes in at 1 hr 17 mins –

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000kns5

      Nearly fainted when I heard it LOL

    162. Republicofscotland says:

      “It turns out the Home office was blocking the data thus preventing the SG from quarantining arrivals – a wheeze of Dominic Cummings’ someone suggested earlier.”

      Capella.

      Did Freeman clearly point out the above when asked why? The ultra unionist STV news had this as their teatime lead story, if Freeman did point this out STV news didn’t report it, instead they blamed Freeman.

      Of course on countless occasions the SNP have failed miserably in pointing out similar points allowing the unionist media to air anti-SNP and by association anti-independence stories which aren’t factually true.

      Why the SNP does this is beyond me.

    163. Dan says:

      Calling borders Conservative MP John Lamont out is becoming a full time job.
      ^^^ Up thread it was a farmer’s letter in a newspaper, this time Alan Ferrier is on the case regarding the Health Service.

      https://twitter.com/alanferrier/status/1279820948414304257

    164. liz says:

      Alyn Smith urging caution, get out and persuade the undecideds – at 54%.

      I’m sick to death of him and his ilk.
      They do NOT want indy

    165. Tartanpigsy says:

      Surely now we abandon the indyref route, and insist on next years Holyrood election being run on a confirmation we wish to exit the Union platform. How votes are made at this year’s virtual SNP conference will be crucial.
      We need nothing more from Westminster IF support stays above 50% in the intervening months.
      We certainly DO NOT need them to agree.
      We are approaching Captive Nation days where all obfuscation becomes irrelevant
      Mhairi Hunter is talking pish, for those that didn’t notice

    166. Al-Stuart says:

      .
      Stuart Campbell, you old Data Tart 😉

      I will be tuning in to your polling data research tomorrow and keenly reading the cliffhanger you trailed above in your penultimate sentence.

      But, methinks, we are still on the journey to the heady uplands where Scotland gets IndyRef2 and Nicola has her jotters plus her toxic tractor Tony Blair style legacy to buggerr off with.

      In addition to reading Wings Over Scotland, I would STRONGLY recommend folk start memorising Thursday nights as a rendezvous at which to watch Alex Salmond on RT.

      Why?

      Same reason Stuart Cliffhanger Campbell is steering his WoS ship.

      Covid19 still has a ways to go. But it in an utterly bizarre way the Coronavirus will help Scotish Independence.

      Bill Clinton overcame impeachment and a ton of excrement to be re-elected president and have a relatively decent legacy. He did this because he got the economy right. He created many new jobs.

      The American public forgave Bill Clinton because he got the economy right.

      Personally, I changed from voting Labour to SNP because Alex Salmond got the economy right. When Alex formed the first Scottish SNP Government, he put great emphasis on the economy.

      With excellent economic qualifications Alex Slamond grew the SNP vote bringing tens of thousands of non-SNP voters aboard because of new jobs.

      For what it is worth, I think that post-Covid job creation will hold the key for political revival.

      You will start to see an increase in articles here at WoS and on the Alex Salmond Show from now and until the next Holyrood election on 6th May 2021 that will do what many of us want.

      Get a force elected that will be a catalyst to get ONE of the MANY IndyRef2 mandates actually used.

      All of us here can drop in and visit WoS online anytime.

      But PLEASE, start setting a half hour of your THURSDAY EVENINGS aside to watch the Alex Salmond Show on RT.

      It is likely the news will break here at Wings Over Scotland and on RT Alex Salmond that so many of us have been waiting and hoping for.

    167. HYUFD says:

      Schrodingers Cat Have you bothered to even read the poll in the thread header? English voters think the UK government should block indyref2 by 42% to 37% and 58% of English Tory voters believe indyref2 should be blocked (as do over 80% of Scottish Tory voters).

      As we have a Tory majority government in the UK Tory voters opinion is the only one that matters until the 2024 general election after which you might get indyref2 if Starmer becomes PM given 54% of English Labour voters would allow it and if the SNP have won a majority at Holyrood next year and Starmer needs them for confidence and supply.

    168. Republicofscotland says:

      “callmedave says:
      5 July, 2020 at 5:20 pm
      UK Home Office mandarins obstruct quarantine checks in Scotland’s airports for two weeks!”

      So a foreign country’s governmental department deliberately puts the lives of Scots at risk from the virus. This alone without the million other deceitful actions by Westminster over the centuries should be enough for Scots to insist on leaving this horrendous union.

    169. Lochside says:

      I see we still have people on here that don’t get the significance of supremacy by assertion of national sovereignty over political posturing and subservience.

      People have to understand what national sovereignty means. First, you have to establish by some historical and legal precedent, such as 1000 years of recognised borders backed up by e.g. an Act of Union with England and confirm it with further affirmations of that Sovereignty e.g. a Claim of Right.

      However, if you allow that Sovereignty to be constantly over-ruled , ignored, reduced to a historical oddity, then three hundred years later have a Referendum that confirms that subordinated and non sovereign status, then you are in trouble.
      Particularly, when you have a year later, a loophole of regaining that Sovereign status by having the vast majority of seats and over 50%( including the Greens) of the popular vote, but decide that ‘now is not the time ‘ to assert this.

      But then repeat trying over the next 4 x years to keep getting mandates that no longer have any real meaning as you have abandoned your Sovereignty de facto.

      You could well find yourself in a scenario where the dominant partner in that Union over rules your subordinate parliament and legal system and de jure rubs your redundant status out of existence and makes it constitutionally impossible to ever appeal to the world to recognise you e.g. Catalonia.

      Thus, we must return to brass tacks: our sovereignty was agreed by the treaty of Union to be in the hands of our representatives i.e. MPs in Westminster. That they have failed to represent our Sovereignty for 300 years is the problem. But the critical point is that the SNP, the party set up to bring about dissolution of that corrupted and defiled Union are incapable of understanding or acting on the power invested in them, to unilaterally walk away from the UK..dismantle it…walk away like the UK did with the EU. Similarly our Scots Law has accepted its subordination by the Blair invention of a ‘Supreme Court’.

      They have to start by walking out of the Westminster Parliament by giving notice that the Claim of Right has been broken , finally by the Brexit theft of our Country’s European membership. An economic act of reckless anti democratic vandalism.

      We then need to set up a Council of Civic Scotland, including the MSPs and declare a new written Constitution for the Scottish Republic. We do not need a plebiscite. We have had democratic mandate after mandate. The 2014 Referendum was with a subordinate ( set up under the Scotland Act-again a breach of the Act of Union) Scottish administration and was an English gerrymandered referendum run by a tory mandarin’s company and tainted by state and electoral breaches of purdah.

      Scotland is one of the oldest states in Europe, predating modern Germany, Spain and Italy. Our borders have been the same for 700 years. Yet our ‘leaders’ scrabble about on their knees like beggars pleading for crumbs and mirages such as ‘Section 30’ conjured up by English rulers. We exist in a democratic dictatorship. An oxymoron? No , English votes dictate everything in our country politically.Ireland suffered the illegal amputation of the 6 x counties and a failed state, a democratic dictatorship of Unionist/ Protestant ‘planters’ which required a war and European intervention to break after nearly a hundred years of oppression.

      We are not Wales, ‘Northern’ Ireland, or Catalonia. We are an ancient state that has been held in political chains for three hundred years. Sold by corrupt aristocrats into bondage and for the past hundred years lied to and kept imprisoned by lying, weak and compromised tra*tors. Demographics and inward immigration will defeat us if we continue to prevaricate. Surely,the time for Independence must be now.

    170. schrodingers cat says:

      @hyfud

      i have never mention a s30, we dont need one to hold a holyrood election, we never have

    171. schrodingers cat says:

      @lochside

      we have never had a mandate for independence, only for indyref2, up until today, we have had no indication from the polls that we could get one,

      but we do now

      once the result of the next holyrood election is announce and it is 50%+ for indy

      that is the point at which the question of whether scotland is sovereign will be tested

    172. CameronB Brodie says:

      I was going to go for the pose value and link to MIT, but here’s a more functional site, providing the same insight into the phenomenology of self-determination. I just though it might help the Scottish government remember who they have a legal duty of care for.

      Determinism, Self-Efficacy, and the Phenomenology of Free Will
      https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Determinism%2C-Self-Efficacy%2C-and-the-Phenomenology-Holton/3ec46dd89e34d6e51e96b99a59afad3d7b343e47

    173. HYUFD says:

      Not what Sturgeon thinks and it is she who will decide if the SNP get a majority next year at Holyrood, she has said she is ‘“not open to that possibility,” of a referendum without a s30. “I want and consider that the basis of the referendum should be the same as the last time. [The] legal basis in future should be the same as the legal basis in the past.”
      https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/mar/07/scotland-can-hold-referendum-without-go-ahead-from-uk

    174. Capella says:

      @jfngw – There’s no doubt they (unionists and their media) manipulate the news cycle to release a steady stream of SNP bad.

      Lying about it, including lies of omission, is despicable. We have a very serious health threat and all the Tories, Labour and Lib Dems can do is misinform the public and collude with the Tory obstructions. How many lives are lost to this collusion?

      Here’s the BBC version of the airport quarantine saga:

      Coronavirus: No quarantine checks carried out on passengers arriving in Scotland

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-53298429

    175. schrodingers cat says:

      @hyfud

      yup nicola want an indyref2 with a s30

      but if wm continues to refuse a s30, she hasnt said she wouldnt turn the holyrood election into an indy plebicite,

      why would she ?

      no s30 required

    176. Ron Maclean says:

      Craig Murray’s talk ‘Ways Forward To Independence’, linked by Colin Alexander at 3:21pm, should help clear up a few misconceptions. Warning – not for the faint-hearted and lovers of the SNP leadership.

    177. Capella says:

      @ RoS – yes Jeanne Freeman did point it out. See the BBC report I linked to above. But the BBC angle the story to downplay the Home Office obstructive role.
      The Headline is Always a Lie.

    178. HYUFD says:

      Schrodingers Cat Sturgeon has also refused to pursue UDI, rendering that point redundant

    179. Stuart MacKay says:

      I generally like Wee Ginger Dug’s posts as an antidote to the reality posted here but this, from his latest: https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2020/07/05/turning-the-corner/ is firmly in the land of ponies and rainbows:

      > After all, there’s little point in demanding an independence referendum if you’re only going to lose it.

      Well, clearly the opposite is also true: After all, there’s little point in granting an independence referendum if you’re only going to lose it.

      At what point do the breathless optimists wake up and smell the coffee?

    180. Capella says:

      However, the BBC does publish a table of covd deaths in an article on why Japan has not got a higher death rate. UK is by far the worst in the world in no. of deaths per 100,000.
      UK 65.7
      US 38.6
      Japan 0.8

      The explanation seems to be social distancing and wearing face masks.

      http://archive.fo/A6Gue

    181. schrodingers cat says:

      @hyfud
      not udi
      an elective democratic plebicite with 50%+ for indy

      its as if your handler has forgotton to give you sheet with the senario i put forward and your incapable to understanding the changing discussion

    182. HYUFD says:

      Which would be pointless unless she declared UDI if Yes won it given Westminster would refuse to recognise it and urge Unionists to boycott it

    183. Lochside says:

      schrodingers cat says:
      5 July, 2020 at 7:07 pm
      @lochside

      ‘we have never had a mandate for independence, only for indyref2, up until today, we have had no indication from the polls that we could get one,’

      The SNP got 56 x seats and 50% of the popular vote in 2015 G.E. The Green vote in that G.E. was over 37,000, making the popular vote 50%+ for Independence parties. I seem to recall that you or similar others insisted, when I have brought this up previously, that as there was no commitment to Indy at that time in the SNP’s manifesto in that election, therefore,the idea of demanding dissolution of the Union was out of the question at that time.

      A strange opinion considering that for most of the SNP’s existence it was agreed, and not only them, but the likes of Margaret Thatcher, that the majority of SEATS was the breaking point for Separation. Even more so with the bent referendum result the year before, with the corresponding surge in Indy people joining the party.

      You made some weak excuse in a previous thread about the 1/2 million absent voters in 2017 because of May’s ‘snap’ election.
      No.. it was because of the SNP’s refusal to stick to the basic reason for their existence. Combine this with the Brexit mess and general feebleness and impotence by not demanding Independence in 2015. Collaboration with the Westminster system instead of unflinching resistance was the problem.

      That lack of courage and adherence to basic objective of Independence continues with the jobsworths leading the SNP today.

    184. schrodingers cat says:

      why would unionist boycott a holyrood election ?

      an institution voted for by 89% of the electorate in a referendum?

    185. schrodingers cat says:

      @lochsode

      The SNP got 56 x seats and 50% of the popular vote in 2015 G.E.

      except that was after the 2014 indyref and it was specifically note in the manifesto that indy was not what was being voted for

      as to the poor showing in 2017

      many reason contibuted to that

      spilt milk

    186. mike cassidy says:

      This is a big ‘ouch’for Pete Wishart’s approach.

      https://twitter.com/musicma99070168/status/1279833190065152001

    187. Lochside says:

      S.C.7.54PM

      ‘The SNP got 56 x seats and 50% of the popular vote in 2015 G.E.

      except that was after the 2014 indyref and it was specifically note in the manifesto that indy was not what was being voted for

      as to the poor showing in 2017
      many reason contibuted to that

      spilt milk’

      For someone who is not shy of telling everyone on here that he/she is ‘smart’..that is a supremely ingenuous answer. So all those voters for the SNP voted in that GE for 56 seats but did not want Independence?
      Why the fuck did all these people join up?…to watch AS sing ‘ode to Joy’..to watch our representatives be laughed at? To expect the SNP to sit there like total fuds and abuse the trust given them by almost the same number of REF INdy votes ( 1.45 mill v 1.5 mill) to play at pass the parcel with a bunch of Unionist scumbags?

      Ok Cat…spilt milk .more like curdled.I canvassed in 2017 for the SNP and people were fucked off with the total lack of action towards any kind of assertion of Scotland’s rights. The only reason they voted in large numbers this time was a last gasp to get us out of the UK and stay in Europe. That faith has been betrayed yet again.

    188. CameronB Brodie says:

      Here’s a look at some constitutional jurisprudence to help inform Mr. Wishart’s political understanding.

      Full text.

      International Journal of Constitutional Law, Volume 13, Issue 1, January 2015, Pages 124–155
      Constitutional identity in 3D: A model of individual, relational, and collective self and its application in Poland

      Abstract
      This article starts from the supposition that constitutional identity is an attractive legal notion that has been used to legitimize the power of courts in cases that usually arose as the result of a conflict of norms stemming from various legal orders.

      Whenever judges use constitutional identity rhetoric to justify their decisions, they assume to know the contents of constitutional identity and, ultimately, they aim to gain, maintain, or extend their powers as the “guardians of identity.”

      The article argues that the identity of a constitutional subject may develop simultaneously in three dimensions as an individual, relational, and collective selves, which remain in constant interaction. While the individual self denotes a particularistic self-perception, the relational and collective selves indicate that identity can mean not only difference, but also sameness or close proximity.

      Taking the example of Poland, this article aims to examine the determinants of the activation of each identity in the process of defining and re-defining the meaning of nation, family, and religious community, and to explain under what circumstances the individual self takes precedence over the relational and collective selves.

      https://academic.oup.com/icon/article/13/1/124/689896

    189. Andy Ellis says:

      @HYUFD 7.46pm

      A pro-indy vote in plebiscitary elections wouldn’t need UK recognition. Only house Jocks could think otherwise. The international community would have few qualms about recognising a vote where the majority of Scots voted for indy parties who had stood for election on a platform of >50% would be taken as de facto independence.

      None of this is rocket science. None of this is exceptional. Referendums are historically and constitutionally an uncommon route to independence.

    190. twathater says:

      I posted this on the previous post but it has relevance on all posts , please take the time to read it

      twathater says:
      5 July, 2020 at 5:47 pm

      @ Julia Gibb 8.20am Julia I take great exception to you and others maligning people as the ANGRY CLIQUE on here

      Is it ONLY people who support NS and all lunatic policies of the SNP that should be allowed to vote

      In 2015 after the MP’S walkout the SNP’S membership swelled to 125,000 can you give me the current figures for membership please

      Do you think the SNP with even that 125,000 will win the next HR election , if not will it still need the help of us non NSFC to win that election

      I personally WANT to vote for the SNP in an effort to gain SCOTTISH independence but they are making it extremely difficult for me and many others to do so

      Many people insist that the GRA and HATE CRIME BILL will either fade away or will be defeated but what if they don’t

      Again I Personally don’t want a FM or MY GOVERNMENT to force reviled bills hated by the majority of people through based on their personal hobby horse

      What comes next is it the Paedophile Information Exchange Bill ( PIE ) where paedophile’s are in a minority so they may have to be protected , would this be acceptable to you or others , that may sound outrageous or unthinkable but so did the GRA amendments not so long ago , also this PIE gained some traction with WM not so long ago

      It is egregious and insulting that people are being ridiculed and denigrated for highlighting these obnoxious and damaging bills when the opposite should be happening

      It is NOT us moaners and complainers who are risking OUR INDEPENDENCE it is Nicola Sturgeon whose insistence on her hobby horse wokist policies is creating the division

      With respect you and the other NSFC are behaving like liebour party supporters who cannot see that liebour is no longer the party of socialism or workers , THEIR dream is DEAD I don’t want ours to go the same way

      IMO the ONLY way for the SNP to get and keep the massive support for indy is to DITCH these policies publicly and concentrate on pushing independence vociferously and passionately

    191. Tinto Chiel says:

      The last few days on here have been hard to endure but Lochside’s comments @6.46 summed things up for me.

      Rights unasserted are straws in the wind.

      For example:

      https://twitter.com/CrossgateCentre/status/1279354840850759680

    192. Jim McIntosh says:

      Lot of good stuff on this thread, just wish we had a like button. 🙂

    193. stonefree says:

      @Adrian B at 2:55 pm

      Of course I know wages are taxed, what I was referring to was Benefits In Kind, which the MPs and MSPs carefully avoid paying
      I doubt It is questioned ,I have looked at MP/MSP expenses and there is a large amount of money at best questionable……..Of course HMRC might give MP/MSPs a pass

    194. David R says:

      Still surprised that after ignoring the Scottish Government on pretty much everything it still believes that the UK government will out of the goodness of it’s heart grant a S30 order.

      I can’t see the SNP making next years election a vote for independence other than to keep it’s disillusioned support onside. It gets support from non-indy supporting voters and will not be willing to risk relying on pro-indy supporters from other parties lending their vote. The ones setting the SNP’s agenda will not want to risk their cushy careers in politics by rocking the boat and risking the SNP being out of power for something as minor as Scottish independence.

      As for those that look to Ms Cherry as a replacement for the current leader, her condemnation of the protest at the border referring to it as ‘abhorrent’ suggests that outside of being anti trans women there is little difference between herself and the rest of New SNP.

      Scotland had it’s chance in 2014 it’s just a shame that the SNP, a party that’s sole purpose was Scotland’s independence didn’t have the will to take on the lies that they must have known would be coming.

    195. HYUFD says:

      Andy Ellis Just like the international community recognised Catalonia when its government won a majority of the vote and declared UDI? Oh wait…

    196. Indy P says:

      Say the polls continue to predict Indy support at >50% , & a minimum voter turn out is required, what’s to stop unionists abstaining in order to reduce the count & render the result invalid? It’s a big trump card.

    197. Rick H Johnston says:

      SNP MP’s have the power to make the UK parliament grind to a halt.
      When the SNP walked out en mass in protest at Blackford being expelled by the speaker they gained 7,000 new members over three days.
      The people of Scotland will back radical proposals that assert their rights.
      England has no right of sovereignty over us and no Scottish politician should agree that it has.

    198. CameronB Brodie says:

      HYUFD
      Scotland and Catalonia are not the same kind of constitutional legal entities, so stop trying to re-write historical reality.

      You appear to be another English Toryboy who rejects the teachings of John Locke, and seek to pervert the course of constitutional justice by rejecting the original intent of the constitution. Perhaps it is your illiberal and authoritarian personality that guided your locals to reject you as a prospective counselor? Just a thought, Toryboy. 😉

    199. twathater says:

      Stuart this interesting data that you have promised better NOT be a Nicola Sturgeon 31st Jan 2020 type of announcement

    200. Street Andrew says:

      schrodingers cat says:
      5 July, 2020 at 11:51 am
      @andyellis

      “i have little faith in the justice system of the uk…”

      Me neither because I don’t think the UK has a justice system it has a legal system. The powerful have made the laws to secure their position, and mostly that is still what happens.

    201. Andy Ellis says:

      @HYFUD

      Nice try, but no cigar. The Catalan’s problem was that they couldn’t demonstrate a clear majority in what was a contested referendum boycotted by one side and denounced by the Spanish state as unconstitutional and illegal. It was never going to be recognised internationally. Of course, the Spanish prohibition is contrary to international law, which doesn’t recognise the pretensions of constitutional bans to over ride the jus cogens of self determination.

      If you are unable to see the difference between the Catalan situation in October 2017 znd the Scottish situation in 2020, you’re either not very bright or just arguing in bad bad faith. Neither is a good look.

    202. Martin says:

      If I was BoJo I’d just say “I’m not giving you a second referendum, stop asking. And I’m not even dignifying your request with an explanation.” Because if I was BoJo I’d be an arsehole. But also because the tories don’t need Scottish MPs and they know Labour are no threat so really there’s absolutely no benefit to them being nice to Scotland, and actually it may play well amongst certain sections of English society if they’re not.

      SNP have badly misplayed their hand.

    203. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “Say the polls continue to predict Indy support at >50% , & a minimum voter turn out is required, what’s to stop unionists abstaining in order to reduce the count & render the result invalid? It’s a big trump card.”

      There is no minimum turnout and no First Minister worth a damn would accept the imposition of one.



    Comment - please read this page for comment rules. HTML tags like <i> and <b> are permitted. Use paragraph breaks in long comments. DO NOT SIGN YOUR COMMENTS, either with a name or a slogan. If your comment does not appear immediately, DO NOT REPOST IT. Ignore these rules and I WILL KILL YOU WITH HAMMERS.




    ↑ Top