We really can’t be bothered with having the GERS “debate” again, in which all the same people make all the same exactly opposite spins on the exact same data. Minor annual fluctuations aside, the core reality is the same as the one we repeat every 12 months, and serious economists on both sides of the political divide still treat the figures with the disdain they properly merit.
One such person is Richard Murphy, and in an excellent piece today he posted a version of this graph which did catch our jaded eye. It purports to show the share of UK debt supposedly accounted for by Scotland – which has, let’s remember, just 8% of the UK’s population – in each of the last 16 years, and which immediately prior to the SNP’s 2011 majority stood at almost exactly that of our population share.
How very remarkable, some readers may feel, that the extent of Scotland’s supposed responsibility for the UK’s debt should have rocketed so very dramatically at the exact point when independence became a live political question.
It does rather make you wonder why the UK government, scraping as it is for every penny of possible savings, seems more and more desperate to hang onto Scotland as the terrible economic burden we become on the rest of the country grows ever heavier.
Truly, our partners in this great equal and bountiful union must be the most generous and forgiving people on Earth. We don’t deserve them.
This poll from Opinium came out a few days ago, but didn’t get as much attention as people might normally have expected, possibly because it was presented in a very difficult-to-follow graphical form. So we’ve sorted it out, and also added in the missing Lib Dem voters.
The takeaway is that a clear majority of voters both in Scotland and the UK now believe that the UK government should accept the Scottish Government’s request for a second independence referendum.
We thought readers might possibly like to hear the unexpurgated audio of our interview with The Times this week, so that they could judge the tone of our “expletive-ridden condemnations” and whatnot for themselves.
Other than a few bits of minor tidying-up – such as me umming and aahing trying to remember the name of a song, or when the manager came round to ask if we wanted more drinks – this is the whole of the “official” interview.
(In conversation with Kenny Farquharson of The Times, 1 August 2019) .
The interview was an interesting one in itself that we might talk more about later this weekend, but let’s leave that aside for now and talk about the headline take, because as usual the Scottish media is presenting it in a remarkably dishonest manner.
In case you missed it, there was an interesting phone-in on the subject of Scottish independence on James O’Brien’s LBC radio show from 10am this morning. I chipped my tuppence-worth in at the start (I’m the second caller, from about 6m 25s), but it’s fascinating listening to O’Brien’s tone evolve as the hour-long segment goes on.
(James O’Brien, LBC, 7 August 2019) .
We don’t doubt for a moment the sincerity and good intent with which he states his position. But when he talks in the intro about the special feelings he has when he’s in Scotland, which he also gets in Greece, the whole argument collapses.
Because O’Brien doesn’t appear to need to feel that he “owns” Greece, or that he’s a Greek citizen, to have that warmth towards it. He doesn’t need the people of England to elect Greece’s governments for it – he’s happy to have those feelings towards a completely independent country. So why not about an independent Scotland?
(Sadly I was cut off before I got a chance to respond to his point about Germany and its federal regions, which would have been to point out that no one German region is six times bigger than all the others put together and can – and does – impose its will on them whenever it wants.)
And much to his credit he appears to realise that as the show goes on. Whether he still thinks deep down that the Scottish independence movement is in significant part driven by anti-Englishness, only he can say. But his callers today at least appear to have made him think about it, and it’s a process worth listening to.
It’s our most fervent wish that one day the left will grasp the fact that this isn’t how you win a war.
It’s also our most abiding fear that this – with its stern admonitions against clapping, or banner-waving, or speaking to anyone who might disagree with you, or taking “fun shortcuts” or wearing “aggressive scents”, in case any of those things cause trauma to the sensitive – might as well be the SNP conference of 2022.
Geri on The value bet: “” someone, somewhere in that vast civil service – has run the numbers (and they do have the numbers, numbers…” May 7, 01:42
Insider on The value bet: ““James” @ 10:45 What the hell are you gibbering about now ? Statues of who ?” May 6, 23:46
James on The value bet: “What are the chances of you voting Tory? (100%).” May 6, 23:09
Confused on The value bet: “One thing people should realise is that the polls can also be bent; he who pays the piper – one…” May 6, 23:05
Mark Beggan on The value bet: “So you will be able to collect your winnings in 2326.” May 6, 23:04
James Che on The value bet: “Did you know that Statues of the realm of England do not contain any Scottish or Irish Statues. Even after…” May 6, 22:45
James Che on The value bet: “I foresee Scotlands independent country voting for a further three hundred years of Colonial rule and missing the open goal.…” May 6, 22:26
Geri on The value bet: “Let me see… Is it cause two of them actually attempt to serve Scots & they’re not genocidal peado apologists?…” May 6, 22:25
James Che on The value bet: “We hve been an independent Country in Scotlant since 1707, Whats wrong? You want to pretend that your in a…” May 6, 22:18
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The value bet: “Same either way: fuck-all.” May 6, 21:17
sarah on The value bet: “Cheer yourselves up, folks, by listening to Eva Comrie and others on today’s Barrhead Boy podcast. Then tomorrow go and…” May 6, 21:07
Campbell Clansman on The value bet: “Better question: How on earth could Scottish voters consider voting for the parties that have misgoverned them this century? SNP,…” May 6, 20:50
Campbell Clansman on The value bet: “What are the odds of the Alliance winning a “bucketload of seats?” Zero. Better question: What are the odds of…” May 6, 20:46
Dan on Seven Days Too Long: “No, Lorna. TH is right, as many didn’t speak out with any worth. Plenty supposedly pro returning Scotland to self-governance…” May 6, 18:38
Lorncal on Seven Days Too Long: “Geri: the police could be heard quite clearly saying: drop the knife, drop the knife. He wouldn’t drop it and…” May 6, 18:32
Mark Beggan on The value bet: “How on earth could Scottish voters consider voting for the SNP? 10 years of lies, mismanagement, theft, sexual deviation, bullying,…” May 6, 18:09
Lorncal on Seven Days Too Long: “They did and were silenced by various methods. As far as I am aware, all of them spoke out and…” May 6, 18:05
Mark Beggan on The value bet: “It wasn’t connected to the grass roots!” May 6, 17:54
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on Binfire Of The Vanities: “With respect, you must ponder deeper. It is not philosophy as such which we are warned to be wary of,…” May 6, 17:53
Lorncal on Seven Days Too Long: “Wife: you make fair points. I know that ISP stands up for women, but they are not standing everywhere, and…” May 6, 17:53
Mark Beggan on The value bet: “The tent covered all the issues?!” May 6, 17:52
Effigy on The value bet: “How on earth could Scottish voters consider voting for Reform? 71 years of rejecting the Tories it looks like many…” May 6, 17:47
agentx on The value bet: “Alliance to Liberate Scotland don’t register on polls and don’t register on betting odds.” May 6, 17:43
Captain Caveman on Seven Days Too Long: “@Lorncal “We cannot rely on any of the parties to support women’s rights when push comes to shove and they…” May 6, 17:24
Sven on The value bet: “Tent collapsed eh, well, that’s poles for you.” May 6, 17:15
Mark Beggan on The value bet: “‘I took a poll recently and 100% of campers were very angry when their tent collapsed’!” May 6, 17:09
Shug on The value bet: “Give us an idea of Swinneys option if A) he gets an overall majority B) he gets a minority gov…” May 6, 17:07
Tommy on The value bet: “The Greens coming second would be the nightmare of nightmares. I mean, they even make the SNP look good. Another…” May 6, 17:05
agentx on Anas Sarwar is a winner: ““While critics have pointed to the lack of formal, traditional trade union recognition, in May 2024, the Usdaw union stated…” May 6, 17:00