The Turning Point
We don’t have much to say about this graph that it doesn’t say for itself.
The arrest of Peter Murrell on 5 April 2023, just a couple of weeks after his wife had realised the game was up and walked away before the cops came round and put a big blue tent up on their front garden, changed everything in Scottish politics.
There can’t have been many starker sliding-doors moments. Before the resignation there was a vast gulf between the SNP and their nearest challengers – fully 26 points in early December 2022, a fortnight before the SNP infamously steamrollered the Gender Recognition Reform Act through Parliament in a series of late-night sittings.
That began a slide, but after the resignation the lead collapsed entirely, and by the summer Labour were neck-and-neck with Humza Yousaf’s beleaguered administration, and duly almost wiped the SNP out of Westminster in July’s UK election.
Unfortunately for Labour, that led to Keir Starmer being Prime Minister and their support instantly fell off a cliff, leaving a gap into which mainly Reform but also the Greens surged. (We’ve left the Tories and Lib Dems out of the graph to keep it clean, as both of them barely moved during the period and are largely irrelevant forces.)
The Parliamentary arithmetic barely changed at the 2026 Holyrood election due to the electoral system giving the SNP a grossly disproportionate number of seats, but it’s plainly visible how much the wider political picture did. The SNP, which had only fleetingly dropped below 40% since the 2014 indyref and had peaked at 62% (a breathtaking 42 points ahead of Labour), has only momentarily brushed that line again.
As recently as two months before Sturgeon’s resignation (and for most of the preceding three years), the combined SNP and Green vote would have been enough to surpass the 50% mark in an election being used as a de-facto referendum. But the SNP did nothing, and this May that combined vote fell far short, with Unionist parties taking 60% of the ballot. When her husband was read his rights the window of opportunity closed, probably forever.
For those three years, Sturgeon knew that the Operation Branchform cat was out of the bag and that the clock was ticking. But she stalled and stalled until she ran out of time and the chance was gone. In terms of independence, the second half of that graph may as well be a flatline at zero.
The pro-independence vote used to be solidly behind the SNP and the unionist vote was fractured. Increasingly, the unionist vote is solidifying behind Reform and the pro-independence vote is fractured.
Far too many independence supporters distrust the SNP and will never vote for them again. I am one of that number. The sooner the SNP are wiped from the political map of Scotland, the sooner the independence movement can re-group and recommence the drive towards independence. In the meantime, the movement is hopelessly divided and stalled. It has no credible leadership or strategy to achieve our goal.
“can re-group and recommence the drive towards independence.”
Not only has the SNP failed the bid for independence but is preventing anyone else from doing it. Wiped off the map by who and what? There is only one way these votes are going and that is to the Unionists. Or out of spite some will vote Green.
People of Scotland have had more than ten years to come up with an alternative. If more time and energy had been spent convincing the NO voters instead of making enemies out of most people then today could have been a whole different narrative.
Nationalists easily forget that the Scottish people stopped independence at the ballot. Not MI5.
Bollocks!
Not bollocks, largely the truth. Especially the last two points.
“Nationalists easily forget that the Scottish people stopped independence at the ballot. Not MI5.”
Utter bollocks as usual…
53% of Scots voted Yes.
“Unionists easily forget that the non-Scottish voters stopped independence at the ballot”.
Fixed that for you. You’re welcome.
Aye, Bob.
“We wus roabbed”
Ye’ve learned the wirds aff by hert.
If only ye’d haud some spark of ability, inspiration, or even a wee clue aboot ye, ye could have turned things aroond in the 12 years since.
But naw, ye just turned oot tae back yer tribe, time efter time efter time.
It is utterly no surprise that so many of independence supporters distrust the SNP and will not vote for them.
That sadly I believe was the plan by the SNP leadership. Gender Reform, wheesht for indie, squandered mandates, the attempted destruction of Alex Salmond, its all there to see and now Saint Nicola flees to a protected bolt hole in London.
What other way would a Westminster government and its dark deeds brigade operate to blunt the independence movement. 2024 ran them close, closer than we may know and it could not happen again.
And now concomitant with the collapse of the SNP the dark deeds brigade do all that they can to destroy Scotland culturally, linguistically, with Scots Law in the sights for utter subsidiarity and the Scotland itself flooded with people from the South.
And all done under an SNP watch. But that was the plan. But you know what the desire for independence has not died. Not by a long shot.
Well said Willie
2014 ran them close, closer than we may know and it could not happen again.
Given that exit polls are a key indicator that the election is legitimate and the count honest, I’ve always wondered why were there no exit polls for the referendum.
I would only complain about your use of the word ‘stalled’ in the last paragraph, when we all know she had no intention of doing anything. She didn’t stall and miss the chance. She simply ignored it because it didn’t fit her agenda.
« Data from: Scotland, Great Britain »
I would say the graph is precisely what Sturgeon and Swinney wanted these two never wanted Independence. I’d go even further and say they wanted to destroy the SNP and it might just happen under Swinney’s leadership unless the membership takes action now.
What action would you recomend the “membership” take? This is the same membership that got fleeced twice.
Swinney has closed down all routes for the membership to do anything except leave.
The surge in the Green vote was due to Polanski in England. Look where the Green vote did well and look at the number of English students. And if 2014 taught us anything it’s that over 90% of the English community are happy with colonisation. Would they vote Green in a de-facto referendum?
Things might change with the court case to clear Salmond’s name, but who would benefit? There is no pragmatic independence party.
A left wing conservative party for independence is badly needed.
The terms “left wing” and “conservative” are at odds with each other and quite frankly the absolute last thing we need is *yet another* leftist party, because they all are.
The surge in Green voting was among leftist radicals and, chiefly, a certain imported demographic that has taken over large parts of the party. Sectarian voting is now a thing.
They’re not at odds with each other. They describe different attributes. A party in favour of workers’ rights and free health care but opposed to the neoliberalism of trans and the suppression of wages by immigration is what?
The increased vote for the Scottish Greens was clearly driven by English colonists. You really think the Chumlees at Edinburgh uni were won over by Greer and the woman?
Cuphook says:
‘The surge in the Green vote was due to Polanski’
Spartan 117 says:
‘The surge in Green voting was among leftist radicals’
There was no ‘surge’ in the Green vote. They had a mere 17K more votes in 2026 than in 2021, from a total of 2.25 million.
The ‘surge’ was in the number of MSPs, which is not the same.
This was due entirely to more SNP voters opting for Green 2, but that’s what can happen when using a duplicitous voting system.
Perhaps some of those SNP 1/Green 2 voters were influenced by misguided Wings contributors, and others, suggesting that SNP 1&2 was a wasted vote?
Had all SNP voters voted 1&2, SNP plus Green would have totalled around 62 MSPs, three seats short of a majority.
Leftist political parties are inevitably of the destructive kind, following the Soviet model of “burn everything down and rebuild in the image of Socialism”, hence why they tend to be wedded to such bizarre and wicked ideologies such as Trans, Social Engineering, warmongering, soft-touch and two-tier “justice”, Big Tax, Big Spend, nanny stateism, reduced civil liberties and generally anything else that is corrosive to society. Anything in any way good or beneficial to the public or democratically desired by the majority, such as workers rights or free healthcare, won’t get a look in. UK state policy has been consistent with this since 1997, regardless of the supposed changes in parties or leadership.
And yes, the Greens’ false “popularity” is driven by gullible young idiots who ascribe to the above destructive ideology, invariably from wealthy metropolitan backgrounds, English or otherwise. A lot of brainwashing takes place in academia.
Whoah there, Spartan.
You forgot to wang oan and oan aboot Gaza.
No point in ignoring the elephant in the room. That’s the number one concern of most Scots these days, before Indy, the cost of living, WW3, the climate, or the coming AI apocalypse.
Just ask Confused, Bob and the rest.
Rev Stuart Campbell writes @ 5:54 pm: “Swinney has closed down all routes for the membership to do anything except leave.”
__________
And yet, Stuart, contrariwise, there’s surely some kind of political ‘Hotel California’ spell still uncannily operative:
Welcome to the Hotel California
Such a lovely place (such a lovely place)
Such a lovely face
Plenty of room at the Hotel California
Any time of year (any time of year)
You can find it here
Her mind is Tiffany-twisted
She got the Mercedes-Benz, uh
She got a lot of pretty, pretty boys
That she calls friends
How they danced in the courtyard
Sweet summer sweat
Some dance to remember
Some dance to forget
Welcome to the Hotel California
Such a lovely place (such a lovely place)
Such a lovely face
They’re livin’ it up at the Hotel California
What a nice surprise (what a nice surprise)
Bring your alibis
Mirrors on the ceiling
The pink champagne on ice
And she said, “We are all just prisoners here
Of our own device”
And in the master’s chambers
They gathered for the feast
They stab it with their steely knives
But they just can’t kill the beast
Last thing I remember
I was running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
“Relax,” said the night man
“We are programmed to receive
You can check out any time you like
But you can never leave”
THE EAGLES
Written by: Glenn Lewis Frey, Don Felder, Donald Hugh Henley
Album: Take It To The Summit (Houston, TX 16th Nov ’76)
Released: 1976
Time to play “Idiot Bingo” on October 1st…
I’ll be placing an X in the box next to all 7 candidates in my area; they’re all unionists, despite one claiming to be otherwise.
I’ll then write “HOUSE!” on the ballot in large letters using my trusty Sharpie, then pop it into the box.
None of these tossers deserve my endorsement!
I understand your frustration.
But that is why we have a Scottish parliament stuffed with (largely) incompetent SNP apparatchiks who are running our country into the ground.
The only way to change the dire state of Scottish politics is to vote for the non-SNP candidate that you feel will best represent your constituency (which is what they are there for).
Your token spoiled ballot paper will actually achieve nothing, however understandable. A protest vote for another candidate (‘lend’ your vote to Labour as a ‘one off’?) might actually bring about change, the ‘Reset’ button for Scottish politics.
Here we go again give your vote to someone other than the snp who best represents your feelings, lend your vote to Labour as a one off, might actually bring about change , HaHaHaHa very funny,Then when Labour get into power in Scotland they will just follow their previous 80 years and fuck up Scotland even worse , you are OBVIOUSLY unaware and are NOT a factchecker that Labour are in power in the uk just now and they are SHREDDING the economy just like the other arseholes the tories
ALL you yoonionist fuckwits fail to recognise that Scotland has been under uk control for 300+ years and THAT is why Scotland is in the state it is in , the SCUM snp are morons and the enemy of Scotland and Scots but they have looked at and learned their fuckwittery from the yoonionist parties
Some may say that the SNP no longer support Scottish Independence,they could be easily convinced by many recent actions some I have mentioned on comments on other articles most recently little criticism of Westminster giving protected status to English whisky (Special and bitter all over again) the only thing they have done correctly is to spell it properly.
And the pointless planned reorganisation of local government.
The reorganisation of local government is not pointless Peter.
The cull of the 32 Scottish Councils into 5 is a splendid opportunity to reorganise the councils into what will be supra regions. In doing the number of elected councillors is going to be halved. That is a reduction of democratic representation. But fear not the First Minister has said pay for the remaining councillors will be increased to reflect increased work load.
Reducing the number of elected councillors whilst balancing it off with the spin of extra money for those remaining is utter chutzpah. However, there are bigger, much bigger considerations.
In reducing the number of councils to five supra regional authorities the plan very much reflects the Burnham proposal to create a UK of the regions. As such it is more than reasonable to anticipate that central government will have much more control of UK, nee Scottish affairs. What need for a pesky dangerous Scottish Parliament as it is rendered into irrelevance.
Indeed, looking around over the last few years there have been all manner of proposals to break local democracy in Scotland.
Free ports and green ports were are to be Scotland’s very own Guantanamo Bay’s with all manner of functions assumed by the Freeport Authorities.
Or what of the more recent proposals to create all manner of National Parks across Scotland with all of the powers reserved to these quangos previously exercised by local authorities. Loch Lomond and the National Park is an example where ALL of the planning function across a huge swathe of Scotland has assumed the government controlled body. And with only five elected board members, who are not elected councillors, it is not difficult to see why the creation of National Parks in places like Skye or Lochaber or the Borders or even urban areas could be useful.
Indeed when you realise that the Highland Regional Council refused planning permission for some of the monster power projects currently and with more scheduled to turn Scotland into England’s big electricity and battery storage you can maybe understand why removing and centralising control is an absolute key.
So yes, big changes about. And not just local authority but NHS too where 14 health boards across Scotland are going to be reduced to two. Just like England, where in fact NHS England has been abolished as their trusts become Integrated Care Units under a central government department of Health and Social Care the similarities with our First Minister of the Independent mind becomes uncannily clear.
Most certainly something folks should think about.
“But she stalled and stalled until she ran out of time and the chance was gone.”
Isn’t that exactly what the SNP wanted?
Just as well I had spent a penny a mere two minutes before reading this, else I may have had an accident whilst laughing…
Nicola Sturgeon will teach women from around the world how to lead under pressure in a new masterclass launching next year.
link to glasgowtimes.co.uk
I’m guessing you simply repeat “I don’t know, I don’t recall, I don’t remember, I can’t recall, I don’t have a recollection…” and variations on that theme a mere fifty times and you’ve got a “masterclass” in Escape and Evasion.
I’m sure there are several “masterclasses” Agent Sturgeon could provide to all sorts of individuals, but I doubt she’d be in a hurry to advertise their content.
What’s the chances you and the rest of the tribe don’t recall how you’ve voted, in election after election, eh, Bob?
Some cants kept voting her back into power.
My money’s on you.
“Agent Sturgeon”, eh? You’d much rather concoct shite like that, rather than accept you’re at a disadvantage any time you encounter two short planks.
Oh deary me…
What’s the chances you realise that nobody on here, with possibly a single notable exception, actually gives a flying f**k what you have to say on any given subject, on any given day, at any given time?
You do know that the chronic BTL dysentery from which you suffer can easily be cured by getting yourself a life…
Simply put down your phone, give those chubby digits a break, and go find one of those rare human beings who lacks the uncontrollable urge to slap you sideways at first sight and interact with them in a normal manner.
It’ll do wonders to improve your outlook on life and your attitude towards others. Seriously, you should try it.
PS. Last time I’ll bite, so no need to reply… The “IGNORE” switch has been restored to the “ON” position. TTFN… Bob
All those words, Bob, just to say you’re ignoring me.
Have you ever sat down and counted all the times you voted for Sturgeon’s SNP? For WM elections and HR elections?
What about those times you stepped outside your front door to do Sturgeon’s bidding – applauding the NHS for their part in supporting her to keep you safe from Covid?
How many arguments did you have with people who said Sturgeon’s a bad ‘un, back in the days when you were a true believer?
“I don’t recall”, eh Bob?
such a shame the woman showed minimal leadership in the direction for which she and her colleagues were elected.
Her course ought to be entitled «Smoke. Mirrors & Snake oil»
So the State asset is going on the lecturing circuit?
Guess it’s the only thing left to her. She isn’t smart enough for the cushy American uni academic role and too tarnished as well as toxic for the cushy UN/EU role for services rendered.
Not smart enough, too tarnished, and toxic.
Yet she’s going on the lecture circuit and you’re not.
I guess you’re another who “can’t recall” all the times you voted for her SNP, at election after election, and swore to every doubter that she represented Scotland’s salvation.
The arrest of Murrell should have seen a clear out of the hierarchy of the SNP, they were all complicit in the events leading to his arrest. That clear out would have reset the SNP, allowing it to draw a line under the past, rebuild public trust, and establish a new leadership committed to transparency, accountability and a fresh direction for the party committed to independence.
the triple lock
– this is something that has been in the sights for a while now, especially in the telegraph – unaffordable, unsustainable – they have really been hitting it. Why?
Thing is, if you have a good pension then the triple lock is irrelevant, but if yours is shit, it matters – it means something not worth very much, won’t get appreciably worse; this should be a vote winner, for everyone really.
But the middle class and the english tory bastards – really hate it and want to go after it; see the pressure on burntbum.
Telegraph seems to actively resent people retiring and managing to live – they were also doing hit pieces on the civil service pension (the best in the land, govt aint going out of business, defined benefit, and 28.9% of your salary is paid into it – its the only real reason for wanting a job with them) – AN END TO “GOLD PLATED PENSIONS” – all that shit.
– there is something fucking sick about tories at a psychological level; it’s like the fat man sees a starving man with a digestive – AND HE WANTS THAT DIGESTIVE MORE THAN ANYTHING IN THE WORLD
What is it with you, Confused? You act like a particularly thick, foul-mouthed, petulant teenager who’s just discovered a keyboard, yet in reality your some old fart who’s 70-plus and should know better.
Here’s the BIG news, Chief. Out here in the real world of tax-paying, stakeholder grownups, stuff has to be paid for (regardless of whether we “like” it and/or however worthy we might think a given beneficiary might be). Oh, also, the total governmental tax receipts pot is finite.
This being reality, in a world (in the UK) where we have an ageing population, a lot more people of working age who DON’T work for whatever reason (and hence aren’t contributing to said tax pot, yet are consuming resources notwithstanding), SOMETHING HAS TO GIVE.
So again, in a grownup world, hard decisions have to be made at some point. Do we continue to pay retired civil servants comparatively vast gold-plated pensions that virtually no one in the private sector that’s paying for it all can get even close to, or do we accept that what might’ve been fine in 1975 or even 1990 doesn’t fly now? Same goes for the horrendous, ever increasing benefits bill and yes, the “triple lock” too. Because y’know, we need infrastructure- roads, schools, hospitals, a functioning healthcare system, Army/Navy/Airforce/Police etc before civil servants “need” a huge pension as paid for by the exhausted public purse.
Maybe if the UK’s government had targeted business (preferably non banks), inward investment, lower taxation to promote productivity, hadn’t pursued disastrous “send all the kids to uni to get indoctrinated by lefty tutors and rack up huge debt instead of learning a trade”, vastly lower importation of low and unskilled workers/claimants etc we’d be better placed to afford more stuff. But hey, that’s what happens when you have talentless numpties who have no clue and have never had a real job running the show (red and blue both).
Ignore it. It’s off its tits again on whatever intoxicating substances its managed to raid from the COSHH cabinet.
You can’t apply logic to the illogical.
Indeed, Spartan. Very true.
The yapping Armchair General says “we cant afford it”…
And yet…..
and yet…’we’ can “afford” to waste £205 BILLION on renewing Trident….
and yet…’we’ can afford to send [cocaine] military aid to Z*lnsk*;
£16 billion in military support (including our £2.26 billion ERA Loan contribution),
up to £5.6 billion in non-military support (including bilateral assistance and fiscal guarantees),
£3.5 billion cover limit in export finance (via UK Export Finance for reconstruction and defence projects)
plus £3 billion military aid annually for ‘as long as it takes’.
and yet…’we’ can waste billions on MP’s, Lords and Royal spongers annually.
“Something has to give” he bleats; just not ‘those’ things.
The resident arms industry shill says that’s all ok – but let’s target the poorest in society. “Tax cuts for the rich, benefit cuts for the poor” he cries.It’s the same old hackneyed bollocks from the same old suspects.
Yes James – in the real world where actual people live, defending ourselves against the real possibility of a wider war in Europe is a much, much higher priority than uprating pensions over and above inflation. It’s not even a close competition.
And let’s be clear, over 65’s account for around 20% of the population, but around 29-36% of the wealth. A household headed by someone in the 65-74 age bracket has around 33x the average wealth of a household headed by someone in the 16-24 bracket, so we’re actually taking about the wealthiest, not the poorest, in a society.
You both raise very sensible points.
The fact is the UK are pissing galactic sums of money away on, quite frankly, shite.
The billions being sent abroad to fuel the conflict in the East and on “overseas aid” is sick-making to say the least, not to mention a weapons system that will never be used (and, if it ever was, the country would be gone anyway).
There are innumerable other examples of obvious wastage desperately requiring culling but as long as we have Big State Internationalists in charge the cycle will be never ending.
That right, aye?
That last was aimed at Adrian, who is cheerleading reducing what is already the lowest -piss poor- state pension in western Europe. All in order to line the arms manufacturer’s pockets.
Way to go, champ!
I will challenge you on this Spartan, the situation in U is extremely serious for all of us in Europe, and probably our most important strategic objective. If R is allowed to win and occupy U, then both the UK and Europe are on a wartime footing (not just a political slogan) which means radically cutting back on social programmes to have hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of soldiers posted in the Baltic states, Poland, Romania etc. That’s the best case scenario.
An entirely possible scenario is that R makes the judgement that the USA will not honor Article 5, and that R’s best chance to hit Europe hard is now, and therefore they march troops across the border into a country like Latvia putting British and European troops directly in conflict with R. In that situation, its conscription, 40% of national income spent on defence, drone attacks on Scottish cities etc. The triple lock is a distant memory then.
The R leadership do not care about peace, stability, the rule of law, human dignity or human rights. Nor do they care at all about the people in their lower socioeconomic groups who will be constricted into their meat grinder war strategy. They are simply motivated by raw power and strategic advantage, so the decision whether to launch an offensive assault against Europe will be the functional output of a calculation on how likely they are to be successful and their risk appetite. If they believe they can lose 10m people in a ten year war and impoverish their own people, but the outcome will be occupation of large parts of Eastern Europe with the rest of the Europe vastly weakened and subservient to the R leadership, they will do that.
So in that context, the money we spend on U is the best money we are spending in my view. R is more like “I” than a genuine superpower like the USA or China, so in Europe we easily have the resources and capability to defend ourselves, but we have to be prepared to commit the resources to it now to avoid the possibility that we end up in a hot war later.
Don’t you think though, Aidan, if the things you say are true, isn’t it about time that “U”‘s immediate EU border countries did the heavy lifting needed in *their* own backyard, not the skint ol’ UK YET AGAIN? It was us in “A”, “I” and “L” – all of them militarily disastrous and with huge costs. At some point you have to stop beating your head against the wall, maybe we’d prefer a new hospital or two.
Personally, I don’t believe “R” would dare to full-on attack Europe/NATO in a million years. The odd state-sponsored black ops maybe, but that was the case long before the “Special Military Operation” anyway. For me, I’ve had quite enough of seeing images of “Z” in that fucking crewneck jumper, begging bowl in hand, fleecing the hapless UK taxpayer of yet more billions.
@Aidan
That’s not to say, however, that we shouldn’t be spending money on our OWN (conventional) defence (not someone else’s), we absolutely should. Maybe if we didn’t spaff so much on “U”, incomers and benefits, we might actually be able to.
““Tax cuts for the rich, benefit cuts for the poor” he cries”
Except the rich aren’t getting tax cuts.
And the poor aren’t getting benefits cuts either.
As for the Triple Lock, that should have gone long ago. It has served its purpose, inflating state pensions at a faster rate than earnings over the time it has been going.
The people doing much of the earning, in order to pay the taxes that funds the pensions, have had enough. Quite right too.
And as so many of these grafting earners are immigrants, and so many of these pensioners are white immigrant haters, there’s an added incentive to stop the workers subbing the useless eaters.
That’s before we even start to look at the lunacy that sees “Triple Locked” pensioners inflated into earnings brackets that makes them eligible to pay income tax.
You’d have to be some kind of feck wit to think that claiming state pension back in tax is a sane way to run an economy.
Sorry, I vociferously reject the idea that the defence of U is a “strategic objective” for *us*. It *might* be for continental Europe, in which case they can dig into their own pockets and do something about it. It’s not our problem. We are only involved because Boris wanted to Cosplay Churchill and marched us headlong into a conflict that was absolutely nothing to do with us and without regard to the consequences.
Yes, Ru are a hostile state. The question is, do we poke the bear and get involved with others’ fights like the wee neds at school, or shall we be wise like nations such as Ireland and maintain neutrality and look after ourselves first and foremost?
Personally I’m sick of being rinsed for more and more tax whilst being told our public services are to reduce yet further and we can’t afford this and that yet conversely seeing billions of OUR money being sent abroad to extremely questionable uses.
What’s conventional defense, CC?
Whatever your answer is, if you know anything about the subject at all, it’ll be a different answer from the one you would have given this time last year. There were no jet-powered drones then.
Just as the answer you will give this time next year will be different again. By next spring, I expect the escalating war will have demonstrated that it’s impossible to defend large industrial enterprises such as oil and gas production sites, refineries, power stations, warehouses, logistics hubs, airfields, radar stations, dockyards, rail infrastructure, etc.
The ability to defend a country in 2026 starts with the industrial economy to make things, the affordable energy to run the factories, and the agricultural, processing and distribution chains to keep the populace fed.
Plus the political will to distribute and disperse everything an enemy will be prepared to throw a £10,000 drone at.
Any serious enemy will have hundreds of thousands of drones, and the industrial capacity to build and launch thousands of them every day. That will be “conventional” warfare.
On all these metrics, the UK is fecked. Much of Europe too.
Scotland, even more so. If only some of the usual suspects could provide evidence to back up their faith that we’re too cuddly and nice to ever be in any danger.
But faith never needs evidence.
“marched us headlong into a conflict that was absolutely nothing to do with us and without regard to the consequences”
Odd, Spartan.
One would expect you to take an even-handed approach. That would need you to slag off Milliband and Burnham for pissing off the finest fighting force in the ME, with no regard to the consequences on our own soil.
Which is that we will lose priceless intelligence from the finest secret service in the ME about the hostile actors within our borders keen to kill people just like you and me.
Oh I agree the Europeans should be taken much more of the cost of this (although they are for the most part, in a worse financial position than us). The reality is though that we have the 2nd highest military budget in Europe and we are one of only two nuclear armed states, so have to play an important role. If a wider war breaks out in Europe we will find ourselves involved in it inevitably, so I would much rather we put in the money now, rather than having to commit a lot more in cost and lives at a later stage. We’ve committed about £3bn a year for U which is less than 0.3% of government spending, and peanuts in the scheme of things.
Ach, as stated before, Scotland doesn’t need to be spending billions on defence when we jist need to deploy our very own Hatey McHateface aka John Main – Weapon of Mass Disruption and a few of his muckers, and after a day or two of any invading force having to listen to their relentless pish stating that anything Scotland has is wrong / broken / shite, they’d likely just turn around go home as it jist wouldn’t be worth the grief and effort to own Scotland and have to deal with those twats.
And we could also deploy GERS figures as a secondary defensive measure to prove that owning Scotland would be a burden and net drain on any imperialistic empire building ideas.
And as a triple whammy defence to see aff any fools mad enough to try to tackle the first two salvos, we could broadcast the weather forecast and cost of fuel / leccy 24/7 and that would surely send any army homewards, tae think again.
Stick to making soup, Dan.
There’s no reason for alert readers to question your claims that you know your soup.
Whereas everything else you post …
@Hatey 6:42pm
Don’t get me started on Silliband/Mahatma Andy’s bungling on Pallet Line. Another fine mess completely irrelevant to our shores the omniclusterfuckpermashambles has decided to get itself involved in, even if it’s just at the virtue signalling level.
The smart thing would have been to stay shut up and let them get on with it as they have been for a very long number of decades. Yet again, an appalling and senseless waste of lives on both sides, both on Oct 7th and the subsequent retaliation.
@Hatey
If all those things you say about the rapidly changing tech of modern warfare are true – and personally I don’t doubt it – then you make my argument for me. Even more reason, surely, not to spend billions upon billions on *someone else’s* military, but our own, and certainly not on outdated Cold War nukes (that someone else has the keys for) that we can never use, and even if we did they probably wouldn’t work, or even if they did they’d be intercepted and/or destroyed by space (counter) weapons and/or interceptor kinetic hypersonic missiles.
@CC
The US has expended too much of its arsenal in the ME this year. It will take years to replenish.
In U, they routinely use the equivalent of the UK’s entire stock of ammunition in weeks. Ditto for drones and interceptors.
There are probably only six countries with the necessary industrial capacity to fight a war right now: Orcland, Covid Central, U, NK, SK and our fighting friends in the ME. As it happens, they’re all already at war in most practical senses.
Only two of these are our friends. SK doesn’t export munitions. And we’re determined to sell our historic ties with our fighting friends in the ME for pro-Labour votes from our tea towel wearing invaders.
So not much help from them.
Personally, I’d push for miniaturisation of tactical nukes and the drones to carry them. The drones will always get through – as fast as one counter measure evolves, a new evolution will arise to beat it.
Tactical nukes on enemy cities is the threat to carry up your sleeve in the 21st century.
Far cheaper than subs, ballistic missiles and H bombs. Far more difficult to track and stop.
Unconditional surrender is always an option too! It might be that the Nazi’s genocides of the powerless were always only a one-off, never to be repeated, historical aberration.
Personally, I hae ma doots.
sir ranulph fiennes is currently living in my garage; some blondie slipped me a monkey to “look after her dad”
– I hire him out to the pikeys for tarmaccing the driveways; they pay him 2quid a week, he seems happy enough.
Care homes, 1000 quid a week, pure ripoff.
Key historical documentary. Video is remarkably still available here and there online.
DÌOMHAIR (CONFIDENTIAL)
BBC ALBA 2013. Gaelic with English subtitles.
“Tha paipeirean oifigeil a bha dìomhair ga fosgladh, a’ toirt sealladh air an dòigh anns a robh difir riaghaltasan, Làbarach agus Tòraidheach suas chun na seachadan a’ dèiligeadh air cùl gnothaich leis an iomairt airson fèin-riaghladh do dh’Alba.”
“Civil servants, MI5, Special Branch used to obstruct and sabotage the Scottish Nationalist movement. The story of how successive Labour and Conservative governments up until the 1970s worked behind the scenes to discredit the Home Rule movement and the SNP – as revealed through once secret papers now available from official archives. Burial of McCrone Report on Scottish Oil. Etc.Etc.”
TRAILER:
link to youtube.com
FULL VIDEO:
link to youtube.com
““Civil servants, MI5, Special Branch used to obstruct and sabotage the Scottish Nationalist movement.”
Sounds exactly like what occurred in India, Ireland, Palestine, Kenya, Malaya and quite a few other former England-as-Britain colonies that are now independent countries. And lets not forget the ‘confidential agents pensioned off at high reward’ (Cesaire).
Back in the day they probably did “used to obstruct and sabotage the Scottish Nationalist movement”.
But they’ll have been stood down lang syne, once they realised that the most efficient and effective obstructors and saboteurs of the movement were the SNP and its blindly devoted faithful.
People such as you, Alf, with your demeaning obsessions about third-world racists, your ludicrous insistence we become fluent in the minority Scots language, and your sycophantic fawning over the butchers and destroyers of the international rules-based order.
How’s your own pension planning coming along?
So planning proposal.has now dropped to build the world’s largest data centre in Scotland. And its power usage will be absolurely monstrous using a reported one third of Scotlands electricity.
Quite what Dumfries and Galloway coun will make of the application is a good question. The like the Highland Council Regional who in the case of the huge Skye overhead transmission lines might have some planning objections.
Maybe no surprise then that the Scottish Government not so long ago made the proposal to remove planning responsibility from local authorities to National Park Authorities controlled by governmental. And yes Skye was one such proposal, without surprise surprise Dumfries and Galloway where this monster power and water data centre is now being proposed to be built.
And now with the public rejection of these national park John Swinney announces huge local authority reorganisation from 32 to five with a halfing of elected councillors a reduction in local say on planning most certainly hoves onto the horizon.
Enterprise area free from local authority, national parks free from local authority and now new regional bodies with hugely reduced elected representatives.
Anyone see a trend because I most certainly think I do as might close with how many people know about Ofcoms recent approval for the UK to construct three monster pump storage hydro schemes. Can anyone guess where they are all located?
“a reported one third of Scotlands electricity”
If only that was true, Scotland would be on course to make some serious folding.
But it’s naw. Willie meant to write “a reported one third of the electricity generated within Scotland’s geographical area and coastal waters”.
Because the infrastructure to capture all this “free” leccy is being mostly paid for by others – English bill payers, multinational companies, loans from the money markets, etc. then it rightly mostly belongs to them. And so does any profit it makes.
It’s a tough one to swallow for any patriotic Scot. I get that. But the seeds of this inevitable outcome were sown when the SNP and the wider Indy movement all decided that money, investment and profits are things bad Tories do.
Cuddly, wee progressives are all about re-distribution and rewarding the undeserving. So shut down industry. Cap the North Sea. Blow up the coal-fired, cheap leccy power stations. Tax, tax and tax again. Virtue signal on the world stage while the thickos cheer.
Then discover that all the while, the big, bad Tories just ploughed on doing what they do best – investing, building, risking accumulated capital in the hope (not guarantee) of making more.
So now most thing ordinary Scots need, from leccy, through fossil fuels, to manufactured goods, are controlled by and owned by others and we have to join the queue of customers to pay market prices.
But on the plus side, as Professor Baird will attest, we’re still seen as cuddly and nice when we visit the UN like schoolkids on a day trip to be shown what the world of adulthood looks like.
Although in reality, when viewed by Alf’s bestie, Lavrov, and the other international predators (Covids, Yanks, Brussels), we’re seen as lambs to the slaughter.
It’s truly extraordinary to see the differences between the reviews of Andeh’s stage performance yesterday.
Some on the progressive left really were weeping in catharsis over being finally told exactly what they wanted to hear.
Other philistines on the right have already written it off as an uninformed, gossamer-light nothing burger.
Here’s a quote from Unherd. Anybody interested can find the article themselves:
“If Burnham truly wants a post-neoliberal order, he will have to build one, and that means large-scale investment in physical things meant to last generations: not regulatory fiddles while Britain smoulders. Burnham’s problem, then, is a twofold gap: the first between a diagnosis of systemic rupture and a weak prescription of cheap bus fares and VAT cuts; the second between the hope in the hall and the grim arithmetic waiting beyond the security cordon. Even the grandest of speeches can’t bridge chasms that large.”
What does it all mean for Scotland and Indy? Given that reality denial among Scots is even more ingrained than within hard-nosed Anglos, I suspect nothing good.
But then there’s the final abdication of responsibility, the ultimate admission of helplessness, that resonates even louder in Scotland than it ever did in England:
Why not just hand the entire, sorry mess over to Brussels for them to fix?
How many Scots are weeping tears of joy this morning on hearing that!
Good post.
ArAndeh very much set out his stall yesterday – Moar Communism is the way, as is outsourcing democracy overseas to Bruxelles.
Because this time it’ll definitely work.
The UK is rapidly collapsing. He may very well be the last ever Prime Minister.
“The UK is rapidly collapsing”
I agree. I’m wondering what the catalyst will be. The event that finally puts it beyond doubt in the minds of onlookers that Westminster has lost control.
I can see various possibilities. Sadly, they are all gonna need large numbers of innocent casualties to ram the point home.
A sustained denial of service attack on the grid by a hostile foreign state, for example, coupled with the instability brought by Nut Zero, and scarcity of backup gas supplies, could leave us all freezing in the dark in January for several days.
WM has already told us to lay in 2 week’s supplies “just in case”. Astonishing in the light of that, that people are ever talking about anything else.
I heard an anecdote about the Vesuvius eruption that destroyed Pompeii. Seemingly, as the volcano was pouring smoke and ash into the air, many people went about their daily routine, unable to comprehend there were larger forces at work in the world that weren’t about to ignore them, just because they didn’t want to know.
“Westminster has finally lost control”
I’d argue we are already there, have been for several years and that most onlookers can see that.
We have a government stuck in a doom loop of high tax and high spend, yet bizarrely is perpetually “skint” with zero room for manoeuvre regarding tax or spending changes. Even the slightest movement either way is enough to cripple either the economy, public finances or both. Dogmatic Leftist thinking has a stranglehold on the whole state with commitments to irrelevant resource-swallowers such as overseas aid, Trident, pouring petrol on overseas conflicts, letting in the world’s dross to feed them every benefit going among others, whilst the important stuff gets neglected.
Nothing seems to be able to break this loop, other than a hard reset of a default on national debt and a clean start, as you’ve noted elsewhere in this thread. And yes, that would be catastrophic.
Your hypothetical scenario is entirely plausible, as are many others.
¬”the infrastructure to capture all this “free” leccy is being mostly paid for by others – English bill payers, multinational companies, loans from the money markets, etc. then it rightly mostly belongs to them. And so does any profit it makes”
Nail hit firmly on the head Hatey. That exactly what power generation and the transformation of Scotland into a big generator battery is all about.
And ditto with all the other things that are now owned by everyone but the Scots.
Power from the glens for the glens, NOT, you got the concept in one Hatey.
“Nail hit firmly on the head Hatey”
Ground Zero for fixing any problem is to be realistic about what the problem is.
UK national debt is something like 94% of GDP. I’m not seeing how an Independent Scotland can just walk away from that in the real world. The interest on that debt is eye-watering, and getting worse by the day.
Nobody is truly free when they’re in hock to the bond markets, as Andeh used to say. Whether any pro-Indy Scottish politicians have the balls to tell us how they would intend to spend down our deficit post-Indy, so we could become free to make our own decisions about how we could distribute our resources, I hae ma doots.
We already read enough bleating on here from people who believe borrowing more and more over the nineties and noughties was “austerity” that caused umpteen deaths.
I can already hear the likes of sam scweaming in outrage if a Scottish politician tried to tell us it’s belt tightening time.
But there you have it. We’re addicted to credit like junkies addicted to coke. But you don’t get away with not repaying your dealer for ever, and the money markets are just as lacking in generosity.
Yep. Uncomfortable facts. The UK state finances are ruinous like most Western nations. It’s difficult to see any way out at all.
Worryingly, the answer among the ignorant seems to be “Moar Debt”, which the cost of servicing consumes more and more state resources than ever.
@Spartan
An iScotland could default. Cold turkey.
I’m not advocating it, but it’s an option. It would mean probably 20 years of abject poverty for most whilst we re-built the foundations of a modern country from scratch, living within our means using entirely our own resources, but it’s doable if we could tell the whiny, benefits junkie, entitled snowflakes to do one.
I could see me voting for it if any politico ever had the balls to lay the details out on the line!
We’d have to be very confident WM wouldn’t just authorise use of force to seize and control what they, and the rest of the world, would consider to be theirs.
Trouble is, two years in, along would come the Covids or the Brussels mob to say “Hows aboot if we just build you a wee refinery, or maybes an EV assembly plant, or take running of your social housing aff yer hands – free up desperately needed cash for better Scottish pensions?”
And off we’d go again, selling out.
The only “way” out of it that I can see (if you could call it any sort of solution, probably not ) is just to print shitloads of money to “pay” the debt, de facto devalue the Pound hugely and inflate away much of the debt.
The one thing we have going for us is our own currency and central bank, which EU States do not have such a “luxury”.
It’s a good time to get out of cash and into tangible assets. And probably leave the country if possible.
Assuming that an IScotland could negotiate a share of the UK’s national debt on a per capita basis (not an unreasonable objective) Scotland would have a debt – GDP ratio of around 90%. That is high by historical standards, but not unmanageable.
What would be needed would be some pretty significant restraint on public spending and cut backs on the least impactful social programmes (e.g. the baby box, free tuition), combined with aggressive pro-growth policies in areas like planning, taxation, economic infrastructure, energy etc. An ambitious but not outrageous growth rate of 4% per anum over 10 years would increase the size of the Scottish economy by 48% and would increase the tax take by around £45bn per anum, by y10. That would be more than enough to pay down the debt, reduce taxes, and target increases in spending.
Defaulting on the debt would be an absolute disaster. It would show desperately needed investors that the new Indy Scotland could not be trusted to honour its obligations when the political circumstances are difficult, and that the state is prepared to use its powers to confiscate investor cash rather than take difficult choices. It would be very difficult for the private or the public sector to raise capital in those circumstances.
Very interesting what the former “green beacon”, Germany, is doing in the areas of coal mining and the use of coal in electricity generation.
It’s the most polluting kind of coal too, so-called “brown coal” or lignite. They have stopped mining their high-quality coal, which means they have to import that for steel production.
I predicted some years ago that Scotland will be re-opening pits, hoaching with high quality coal, by 2030.
Key to any re-industrialisation drive is cheap steel production.
A default and “clean start” would be utterly catastrophic and yet, arguably, the only remaining option for iScot to break the UK/Western doom loop of Big Tax, Big Spend, Big Debt.
We’d need shot of a sizeable rump of the dross within our own population first though (the shirkers and takers).
Obviously our wonderful political class would be horrified at the thought of losing much of their voter base.
Sadly we have seen the plunder of a country’s resources before for the benefit of others. That is what empire was so much about.
Even more sadly, you don’t need to look too far and too long back to reflect on Ireland when there was a potato blight other crops like grain were exported out of the country whilst millions starved.
Similar perchance to the many many many in Scotland who are in fuel poverty and will struggle to heat and light their homes again this winter.
But the ideology is good. That is the ideology of where we are. Who profits?
Interesting post by Jim Cuthbert on how the negotiations on Scotland’s share of UK debt might be shaped post independence.
link to jamcuthbert.co.uk
“But certain principles are
clear from the analysis in this paper. In particular:
a) As regards debt, the negotiation should not be about the headline UK debt figure of £1,189 billion, but of debt after allowing for quantitative easing, that is, the smaller figure of £814 billion.
b) Any simple formula-based approach towards splitting debt (based on population share, or historic share of deficit) is unsatisfactory for the reasons analysed in Sections 4 and 5 of this paper. So, in particular, the two starting negotiating positions set out in the Scottish Government’s White Paper are inappropriate.
c) Negotiations should be informed by the Vienna Convention principle that the way in which relevant assets are transferred should influence any partitioning of debt. So, in particular, it is relevant that Scotland should not be taking on debt in relation to assets like Trident.
d) The equity principle in the Vienna Convention, together with the way in which Scotland’s oil assets have been mis-appropriated in a manner which is inconsistent with any properly functioning union, means that bygones cannot be taken as bygones in the negotiations. The sovereign wealth fund of over £100 billion which Scotland would be enjoying, if it had gained its independence in 1980, is indeed a relevant consideration.
Sure, sam, if one side starts by making all kinds of convenient assumptions, then the final settlement can be massaged to something much more palatable.
To that one side.
Personally, I’m sick of the biased, deluded, heid-zips-up-the-back, snake oil that the likes of you are constantly trying to flog.
It insults my intelligence.
It’s the fantasy economics painted on the side of the Brexit Bus, all over again.
“bygones cannot be taken as bygones in the negotiations”
Says one side cos it’s convenient to say so.
What does the other side say? Get real, FFS. Stop treating us as if we were born yesterday.
Noting that this was written 16-years ago of course.
There is no way that rUK Government would be willing to reimburse IScotland as if a sovereign wealth fund had been established, so that is for the birds.
The per-population or per-capita apportionment is probably where we would land, but I wouldn’t be surprised if HMT’s opening position would be to take all the outstanding debt and apportion it to Scotland and rUK based on the level of spending/taxation income in each country the year the debt was accrued. Given GERS has shown a higher deficit most years compared to rUK since 2014, that would likely lead to Scotland taking a higher than per-population share.
The weak of understanding, such as wee Johnny Main attribute my posting of links and quotations from them as being my views. I recognise my inability to take any firm stance on what might happen in debt negotiations.
Here is another link to a different view of debt.
link to taxresearch.org.uk
The UK MoD has indicated that finding a suitable alternative location for Coulport would be “highly problematic, very expensive and fraught with political difficulties”. That said, I think Scotland’s debt could be dramatically reduced by an independent Scotland allowing time for the MoD to find an alternative site for Coulport.
Yes and you could always take the view that since Scotland would be a new state, it cannot have any debt as it had no legal personality to acquire the debt at the point at which the debt was accrued. It is better for IScotland not to have this debt and therefore “we” decline to take a share of the national debt.
Again – the probability of these arguments being accepted is 0%.
@Aidan
You can see why it’s so important to sell the “colony” lie.
Real former colonies don’t have to shoulder a share of the debt.
Scotland, as part of Great Britain, does.
Maybe the big, bad English cants saw this all along. Perhaps they always were smarter. Sometimes it seems like the latter is the only possible explanation.
Perhaps, post-Indy, England will simply default on 10% of all its international debts and say to the creditors “Take it up with Edinburgh”.
That would be a simple, and perfidious, solution.
And considering how much the UK still owes Brussels in post-divorce reparations, very tricky for our Scottish politicos when they go cap-in-hand to Brussels, begging to be let in.
The Irish in me suggests perhaps better not to be starting from here: Anyway, as indicated in the past, my worldview is Dooyeweerdian Christian. With some hesitation, I post this link to a generally related recent video. It is very much an “in-house” Christian interview with Christian viewers in mind. Nevertheless, maybe there is enough common wisdom in it to spill over boundaries. (If I am not mistaken, a small fluttering Scottish flag can be glimpsed through the window behind the Canadian interviewer.)
Video spiel:
« Politics seems to reach into every part of life, even as trust in government continues to erode. How should Christians respond without retreating from public life or expecting politics to solve everything? On this episode of the Podcast for Cultural Reformation, Pastor Nate Wright speaks with Ezra fellow Professor Zane Richer about the crisis in modern political thought. They examine the false choices Christians are often asked to make, the proper role of government, and why Scripture must shape the questions we ask as well as the answers we give. »
link to mouseglass.blogspot.com
@willie
And you want to maintain control in the Scottish Parliament because the SNP have shown they’re so much better at: not building ferries on schedule and on budget; reducing educational performance & results; worsening medical outcomes; spending a lot more to achieve a lot less???
And you keep voting for them! At least in England they change one useless lot for another every so often…..
When I was a kid the Scottish education system I went through was the best in the UK. Not now. Want to live to in the drugs capital of Europe with declining life expectancy – no thank you. However much you’d like to, you cannot blame England for any of that – you’ve only got your own politicians to blame for it all. No-one else, no hidden agendas, no fifth columnists, the results are bad because the SNP are (still) in charge. And they’ll stay bad as long as you keep voting for them. It might not improve much afterwards but that’s another question.
And as for Sam’s idea that if only Scotland had been given £100 billion in 1980 everything would be SO much better – Scotland currently gets about £8bn a year extra – 27 years at £8bn/year – that’s over £200bn in today’s money that would have achieved vastly better outcomes if spent directly by the Scottish Office rather than by the SNP wastrels.
Farage comes out swinging:
“The state pension is not a handout, nor an act of government charity. It is a fundamental social contract.
British workers pay into the system for the best part of half a century on the explicit understanding that, in return, the nation will provide them with security and dignity in their twilight years.
To break that contract now, when retirees are in their 70s and 80s, with zero ability to re-enter the workforce to plug the gap, is nothing short of a betrayal.
This is precisely why Reform UK stands four-square behind the triple lock. We will keep it. Full stop.”
When’s Swinney gonna put his tuppence in?
The SNP leadership have actively working FOR the british state. Sturgeon is the greatest ("Tractor" - Ed) to Scotland in the modern era! certainly close!