Hopeless times
Sitrep: we’ve given up any hope of turning on the television and seeing a politician – any politician – telling the truth.
Boris Johnson is lying about negotiating a new deal with the EU. Jeremy Corbyn is lying about pretty much everything (in so far as he even knows what he wants the truth to be, let alone what it actually is). Jo Swinson is lying about wanting to meaningfully work with other parties to stop Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon is lying about wanting to stop a no-deal Brexit – she just wants to stop Brexit full stop.
(Unfortunately, this also means she’s lying about having any real intention of holding a second independence referendum before 2021. If she did, she wouldn’t have all her MPs and MSPs frantically running around parliaments and courtrooms trying to destroy her own democratic mandate for it, which would leave her needing to secure a fresh one 20 months from now. And assuming she’d have any more idea how to put it into practice than she has with the ones she’s already got.)
The government is lying about the fact that it doesn’t have confidence in itself, and the opposition is lying about the fact that it does. Everyone now says they want an election, but somehow it isn’t happening because nobody wants it yet, and nobody can agree when they DO want it, and they’re all lying about why.
And absolutely everyone is lying about the fact that whatever they’re trying to do right now has any chance of solving the present shambles. Johnson is just stalling to run the clock down until no-deal, although he swears blind that he isn’t, and the opposition just wants to drag the whole agony out for several more months with not the slightest clue what they’d actually do then.
Grimly, the closest thing that British voters currently have to an honest man is Nigel Farage, who is at least clear about what he wants and what he’s prepared to do to get it. Which is ironic, as he’s only anywhere near getting it because he’s spent his entire political career lying through his teeth about it.
We don’t mind telling you, folks, it’s been pretty hard to get up in the mornings.
When we’ve managed it, though, we’ve spent the last couple of days unsuccessfully trying to find out the answer to a question.
Because let’s imagine that the opposition bill to “block” no-deal Brexit passes later today, as it almost certainly will, and that the government’s second attempt to dissolve Parliament and call an election fails on Monday (as is also almost certain). Johnson would then be obliged to ask the EU for yet another Brexit extension at the meeting of the European Council in mid-October.
But what if he didn’t? What if he resigned as Prime Minister (but stayed leader of the Conservative Party)? Who would become PM? There’s no deputy and therefore no automatic process, and we know that Parliament can’t agree on an alternative or we’d already have one. The Tories and probably the Lib Dems aren’t going to put Corbyn in and Corbyn isn’t going to step aside.
There appears to be no mechanism in the UK’s infamously unwritten constitution to deal with this scenario. We’ve seen numerous other people ask the question and fail to come up with an authoritative answer.
(Plenty of people who don’t actually know anything about anything are willing to say what they IMAGINE would happen, but none of it has any sort of basis in fact or law.)
There would be no PM but the government wouldn’t actually have fallen. There’d have been no confidence vote and no vote to bypass the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and hold an election. The UK would be speeding fast towards the no-deal cliff with no-one driving the bus at all.
Or what if Johnson stayed in office but simply refused to do anything? Or what if he trundled along nonchalantly until mid-October and then just didn’t obey Parliament’s instruction? What if he exchanged pleasantries about cricket and the weather with the EU but didn’t actually ask for an extension? He did, after all, tell the nation yesterday that he’d “rather be dead in a ditch” than do so.
At that point there’d only be two weeks left until the deadline – not nearly enough time for an election. The opposition would have to do something it’s been utterly unable to do until now: agree on who to get to take over.
And what if they did? That person would carry no authority whatsoever. To become PM they’d have had to agree to call an election more or less immediately after securing the extension – currently the official position of all the opposition parties – and that means the EU would be dealing with someone whose word was a meaningless irrelevance and would cast them into renewed prolonged uncertainty.
There’s not a chance in hell that the opposition alliance – including the SNP, Labour, Lib Dems and rebel Tories – would be able to make any pact stick in such an election. They don’t want even remotely the same things. Tory rebels don’t want a Labour government for the next five years, under Jeremy Corbyn or anyone else. Nor does Jo Swinson, who’s more Tory than most of the Tory rebels (and indeed much of the Tory government). The Unionist parties won’t give the SNP another indyref, and the SNP would rightly be crucified by their own supporters if they did a deal without one.
(Although, regretfully, we’ve arrived at a stage where we can’t with any confidence rule out the SNP, now apparently a single-issue stop-Brexit party, doing it anyway.)
And of course, no matter what the parties might agree to do, the voters are another matter entirely. God alone knows what Labour voters in the great swathe of Leave-voting seats in the north of England would make of it all. Not a single poll has ever suggested that those areas have changed their minds since 2016.
In those circumstances, the hard-Brexiteers currently in control of the Conservative Party would have been backed into a corner and would have little choice – even if they wanted one – but to campaign on a no-deal platform or be slaughtered by the Brexit Party. Either way the no-dealers would very likely win against an opposition impossibly divided among itself.
(Can you imagine Jo Swinson standing down in her East Dunbartonshire seat to give the SNP a free run? Of course not. But if she and the other three Lib Dem MPs in Scotland didn’t stand aside, what would the SNP be getting out of any pact? Can you see Swinson promising them a second indyref? Hardly.)
The closest thing the opposition has to a strategy is a wildly improbable Hail Mary shot whereby the Brexit vote is more divided than the Remain vote and they somehow get a government into power that can enact a second EU referendum without granting a second Scottish one, kicking independence down the road until at least 2025.
(Because let’s say Jeremy Corbyn was being truthful when he said he wouldn’t block one, which is a pretty big “if” to start with. At the very BEST he’s going to be running a weak multi-party coalition which would need the votes of the Lib Dems and at least some Tories to pass indyref2 legislation. There isn’t a snowball’s chance of that.)
They need a whole series of miracles to come off one after another, and even then all they’d get would be another referendum – one which nobody knows the options in, and which would in any event be a farce in which nobody on either side would be able to believe that the result would be honoured.
Wings called all this, of course. We pointed out two and a half years ago that Theresa May was absolutely out of her mind to call a needless snap general election, and we accurately predicted the chaos that would follow.
And we’re calling it now. No good can come of anything that’s likely to happen this week. There’s now only one sane course of action, a bad choice that’s less bad than any of the others – pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
It respects the result of the referendum, but in a way that keeps most of the benefits of EU membership indefinitely (because the Irish Question has no imminent solution, and the backstop which basically keeps us in the single market and the customs union will persist forever). It avoids most of the catastrophic consequences of no deal. It retains the Scottish Government’s mandate for a new indyref. And it would probably destroy the Tories AND the Brexit Party.
(Because most of the Tory vote would be furious, but their rebels could justify it as the least-worst option and as giving them time to recover, and the Brexit Party would be furious but would have to maintain their fury for two and a half years while having nothing to actually campaign for because we’d already be out of the EU. What would their platform be? “Vote for us, we’ll make everything much worse out of pure spite”?)
(As for whether the government could in fact survive until 2022, it would of course be enormously weak for the rest of its term, but protected by the FTPA. We’re not sure the electorate would thank any party that triggered a vote of no confidence and a general election that would throw everything back up in the air just when total disaster had been averted and the worst political mess in British history had finally been – albeit imperfectly – solved. A period of enforced consensus politics might be just what the doctor ordered.)
But that isn’t going to happen.
It’s not going to happen because every MP in the House Of Commons is lying to you, readers. Every last one of them, without exception, and Scotland and the UK are both going to suffer dreadfully for their mendacious, reckless, self-centred incompetence.
We don’t know what we do about that.
Hopeless times until we’re a normal independent country
Well, Nicola Sturgeon has said on many occasions she doesn’t want Brexit at all, also Ian Blackford in the Commons has repeated that, so Wings is lying about that
My My
Forgive my ignorance:
Is it possible the EU would just say we’re not accepting no-deal Brexit, we are extending Article 50 indefinately till you sort yourselves out?
I believe you are way off target with your assertion that Nicola Sturgeon is lying about her intentions for a second referendum. She is on it and her patient strategy is paying off.
“I believe you are way off target with your assertion that Nicola Sturgeon is lying about her intentions for a second referendum. She is on it and her patient strategy is paying off.”
In what way is it “paying off”? Are we one single step closer to having a second indyref than we were three years ago?
I was under the impression that Kinnock’s son put in an amendment which passed because of no “tellers” provided by govt to count votes?
Doesn’t that mean that when the current “Stop Boris” bill becomes law then so does the “Theresa May” A50 agreement?
I’m hugely confused 🙂
Dr Jim said “Well, Nicola Sturgeon has said on many occasions she doesn’t want Brexit at all, also Ian Blackford in the Commons has repeated that, so Wings is lying about that
My My”
I say Wings isn’t lying about that:
link to dailymail.co.uk
Haever,
The power to cancel A50 rests with the lawful government of the UK, not with the EU – they cannot do that for us. They can extend, if we ask them, but they cannot ‘keep us in against our will/or better judgement’.
Hope that helps answer your question.
I’ve been watching most of the News and some Parliament tv and I’m sure most, if not all MPs are actually enjoying the confusion and lies. They get on the tv more than usual, lots of chat with their pals from their own and other parties and it gives them something to do and be busy.
I remember reading in Alan Clarks diaries in the eighties about how boring every day life in Westminster is and he would dream of being back at Saltwood Castle or his Sutherland sheep farm.
I wonder what would happen if Boris went off long term sick as in any other job? Who takes over or does his desk fill with paperwork until he returns?
SNP’s position is very clear Ian Blackford repeats it in Westminster every week. Nicola Sturgeon emphasised Independence yesterday.
Stuck now waiting for Westminster SNP must play the Westminster game. Right now Boris and his Tories are on the ropes, If the SNP changed their position from leaving with a deal to not leaving at all, SNP’s true position this would alter the vote to the Tories advantage, do we want that, SNP must wait until the ink is dry on the we are out form before making the Independence move. Time is still on the SNP’s side.
@ Heaver 1:36 pm :
“Is it possible the EU would just say we’re not accepting no-deal Brexit, we are extending Article 50 indefinately till you sort yourselves out?”
No for both political and financial reasons.
That sort of kick the can approach is fine in Eastern Europe but this fiasco has already cost a lot of money in the EU countries with large trade flows to the UK. Unlike the UK they have prepared for Brexit (even a “soft one”) and that costs money.
Politically there’s a lot of MEPs waiting to take up the places they were elected to as the UKs MEP allocation was redistributed. Hence Alyn Smith desperately trying to become an MP :/
So the tl;dr is No.
PS if no party wants the Prime Ministers job the Queen can force the issue, failing that I shall go down and do it . . Sorted.
The SNP are doing the EU’s dirty work, even at the cost of our independence referendum, perhaps they have cut a deal for further down the road, but for now its brexit damage limitation for the benefit of the EU.
Good article Stu.
I’m really annoyed that you’ve just said “The Unionist parties won’t give the SNP another indyref”.
The Unionist parties must give us, the Scottish people, a referendum because we have a right under international law to have a referendum. This Section 30 order “agreement” thing is a red herring. It isn’t “permission” and it isn’t optional. International law makes fulfilling that constitutional protocol a legal requirement incumbent on whatever party or coalition comprises the UK government.
We lose democratic laws which protect us if/when we come out of the EU even with the Withdrawal Agreement.
Holyrood would be shut or stripped – whichever was most convenient for them.
They are still desperate to keep the people of Scotland away from the Ballot box.
The things that are getting clearer by the day for non political anoraks like ourselves, is that Westminster Government is a shambles, and the Unionist parties cannot be trusted with ‘Britain’ they are now full on English Nationalists.
The leadership of the SNP have gone for the ‘compromise’ on Brexit EU membership. Perhaps its time they offer the Scottish Electorate a compromise Referendum on DevoMax. So we can negotiate our own EU membership and are in effect Sovereign.
A thought anyway.
After Brexit all the unionists will be dealing with the myriad problems, the job losses, the lack of trade deals and the recriminations.
In contrast, the independence movement will offer the clear and positive message of independence and getting back in the single market.
@Neil MacKenzie 1:54pm
100% correct
@ Neal MacKenzie (1:54pm)
How come the Catalonian election wasn’t official then? I am just asking as I have no idea myself.
Hopeless was 19th September, 2014 for a lot of folk. I’d guess on that day the future looked to be nothing but black… and for a lot longer than five years.
There is always hope.
Well, aren’t you just a regular Mary Sunshine? I’m thinking of that scene at the end of Independence Day II, where the sky is, quite literally, falling, the end of the world is ACTUALLY upon us, but the old guy, played by Judd Hirsch, tells everybody, “have a little faith”.
Sorry, it’s the best I could come up with.
Actually the Brexit Party would have something to campaign for – an Independent England out of both the EU and the UK.
The Withdrawal Agreement (if passed) will be between the UK and EU – and if England wasn’t in the UK anymore it could sail off unfettered into the sunset as it seems to want to do…that’s a win win for just about everybody else.
Spot on Rev…… Nothing more needs said!
Stu,
you and Wings have been an invaluable source of information, commentary and criticism in support of independence. I have contributed to this and I hope you continue, as no-one else is doing as good a job. However, there is one nagging worry in my mind: your idea to create a “Wings” party to fight the next Holyrood election. While I am not against new pro-indy parties per se, I worry that doing this would make you (necessarily) partisan and thus less favourable towards other pro-indy parties, particularly the SNP. I already see criticism of the SNP from you and cannot be certain whether this is genuine for the sake of independence, or is intended to built support for your own party, or to test the waters in deciding whether to set it up.
That’s one worry. Aside from being less friendly towards the SNP, I also worry that Wings the website would become less popular, become less trusted/cited and enjoy far lower funding if people see you as opposition to the SNP. If you are competing with the SNP, would SNP voters still read and distribute your next Wee Book? Or would they see it as opposition literature? Would they still contribute to your fundraisers? You are doing a great job here and I do not want to see Wings decline in effectiveness for the next referendum for the sake of one or two MSPs.
My view of our political landscape does adapt to circumstances, but these have been my thoughts on the subject for the past few weeks. I hope you find them useful, for what they are worth.
And yet, mysteriously, Stephen kinnocks amendment for a new vote on the withdrawal agreement was passed because no tellers were present at the vote. Could be deep state making the decision that the politicians can’t.
I’ve recently been thinking that I could probably turn the internet off for a couple of years (which might do me some good tbh), and turn it back on, and everything would just be the same.
@Normski,
I think the fundamental difference between Scottish Nationalism and English Nationalism, is that the Scottish version wants the people of Scotland to run Scottish Affairs.
English Nationalism is about the English and England running the affairs of other countries, and always putting England first, second and last.
Farage is well aware of the wealth of Scotland and how much England needs it. There will never be a movement in England for independence from Scotland – quiet words will be spoken into thick ears of those who propose it.
I agree 100% with every word of this, it really is soul destroying that we have Johnson in Scotland fighting to save the union while we have the SNP in Westminster fighting for the same thing.
Unhappily,the reality is we’re part of the UK still, and as such the SNP are forced into continuing defending our EU membership, as we told them in 2016.
We knew this was a charade then, and so it remains.
The end goal stays the same.
Nobody seems immune from being driven to distraction by ‘events’, ffs i’m not having good mornings either, but i’m heartened by the near inevitability of an imminent GE.
At this point, the charade ends. It better!
I wish I didn’t think that you’re right.
Maybe I should have added and many in the movement are blinkered to the facts.
“Well, Nicola Sturgeon has said on many occasions she doesn’t want Brexit at all”
Um, maybe take another swing at reading the article.
The best advice about war is “Don’t be there!” So while the Withdrawal Agreement solution is mad, it is the only option that appears likely to stop citizens of John Bull’s other island – north and south – being blown to bits.
Of course, it will also stop residents of London being blown to bits, given that the IRA won their war by their attacks on the UK’s money stealing centre, the City, which persuaded the UK elite that “negotiating with terrorists” was, in fact, not off the table. “Won” in the sense that they forced the UK elite to negotiate and to reach and implement an agreed solution in the Good Friday Agreement. Not in the military “win or lose” sense.
CITY OF LONDON BOMBS
“Why is there peace in Ireland? The Japanese did it. No, really!”
“Japanese bankers of the late twentieth century appear to have completely lost their father’s ‘WW2-British-prisoners-samurai-decapitating-and-inhuman torture’ spunk. That, or they didn’t see why they should be cannon-fodder for Her Majesty’s Empire-lite to sacrifice in the continuing domestic spat with their former colonial doormat. In fact, rather sanely, the Japanese threatened to decamp to the Continent — and mortifyingly for the British, to Britain’s eternal enemy Germany — taking their banks and business with them.”
See comment “City of London Bombs” by “BlottoBonVismarck”, April 27th at 3.01 pm, a comment to
”IRA VS AL Qaeda: I Was Wrong’, by Gary Brecher aka ‘The War Nerd’ – 27th, April 2011 – The Exiled –
– link to exiledonline.com
Personallly I’d call not being blown to bits really quite hopeful, but, hey, that’s just me. Why be blown to bits today what can be put off until tomorrow ? !!
Though some of my fellow residents’s of John Bull’s other island have just about had it with the about-to-be-renewed “depravity” of the UK’s treatment of its former colonial doormat. You might expect them if it’s No Deal.
– Chris O’Dowd: ‘The idea that the British government won’t f*** us over is laughable’, by Stuart Jeffries, 5th October 2019 – Irish Times –
– link to irishtimes.com
So. Mad vs War. Choices, choices.
MORE
See comments by “Ex Pat” to “New Media Futures”, by John O’Dowd, 5th October 2016 – Bella Caledonia –
– link to bellacaledonia.org.uk
“Right now Boris and his Tories are on the ropes, If the SNP changed their position from leaving with a deal to not leaving at all, SNP’s true position this would alter the vote to the Tories advantage”
What part of “STOP BREXIT” do you think means “leaving with a deal”?
What happens is that there is a vote of no confidence in parliament. De Piffle is defeated. The Queen sends for Corbyn who can’t form a government, but the discussions means that say Ken Clark comes out as the proposed PM as he has the support of the majority of the HoC.
He forms a government which governs until there is an election / Referendum in the spring.The SNP will give confidence and supply, and with luck get a section 30 order out of it. (we can’t have an election in November, try it)
This is simply what the “Constitution” sets out.
I think the article is 100% accurate,especially in regard to Sturgeon……….That’ll be the hate mail starting then?
Re honestly ? possibly Ken Clark?
“PS if no party wants the Prime Ministers job the Queen can force the issue”
Yeah, that’s the kind of no-answer answer people have been giving. What does it MEAN? Who does she pick? On whose say-so?
“What happens is that there is a vote of no confidence in parliament. De Piffle is defeated. The Queen sends for Corbyn who can’t form a government, but the discussions means that say Ken Clark comes out as the proposed PM as he has the support of the majority of the HoC.”
I don’t think you’ve read the article.
The situation is that the government already plans a VoNC. It’s going to be defeated. The opposition’s entire current plan, openly stated, is to force him to stay in office.
“I’m really annoyed that you’ve just said “The Unionist parties won’t give the SNP another indyref”.
The Unionist parties must give us, the Scottish people, a referendum because we have a right under international law to have a referendum.”
Then I suggest you go and explain that to them, because they seem to be unaware of it.
I had a vague feeling that the Leader of the House might be the default replacement, but that seems only to apply during Prime Minister’s Questions (and even then it’s optional):
(link to en.wikipedia.org)
So, not an answer to the question, but possibly a lucky escape, given the incumbent.
Wings says….’Nicola Sturgeon is lying about wanting to stop a no-deal Brexit – she just wants to stop Brexit full stop’
On GMS yesterday Nicola Sturgeon said ‘ I want to stop Brexit full stop, but first we must stop a no deal from happening’.
The complete opposite of what you claim.
I’m definitely sceptical about the SNP leadership’s plan. That said, I’m trusting that they do have a plan and have some idea what they’re doing. That’s not going to stop me criticising them.
“The complete opposite of what you claim.”
WHO did she say she wanted to stop Brexit for? Scotland or the whole UK? If it’s the latter she should resign, because (a) she has no writ to interfere in the business of the UK government, and (b) her job is to secure independence for Scotland, and her mandate to do that is currently dependent on Brexit happening.
If it was the former, then independence is the only reliable route to that.
The SNP have a responsibility to fight against a damaging No-deal as a priority. Otherwise, we’d be out, with a catastrophe on hand and Scotland would be under the Tory thumb.
They don’t have to fight for Remain or normal WA agreement. This is not our business. We only have to ensure that there is a window and legislation to allow Scotland’s membership of the EU to be contiguous.
The SNP are not taking the risks that many people seems to be agitating for. And I suspect that’s because the Scottish Independence question would get turned into mush, inflamed and spun by the Unionists as part of current UK woes.
The SNP have adopted a mature, rational approach and taking things calmly and steadily against a UK state that seeks to exploit any weaknesses. Steady as she goes, is a good way to go, until it reaches crunch time.
Listening to this tough UDI / rebellion / People are Sovereign, talk from people who cannot even stop paying the BBC is laughable. Tough? It is being on the streets like Hong Kong, or even Catalonia. Tough, is taking down Union Flags, boycotting Unionist shops for example.
Tough is acting as if we are already Independent, in everything we do.
So, in my mind, there is a gap between ‘actions on the ground’ that people are willing to take, and the ‘slower, steady pace’ of the SNP. It’s hardly surprising that NS raised a petition to gauge the feelings on the ground.
Sturgeon has built a reputation for being an astute, measured and canny leader. It’s why many Yoons dont like her. I think this is one ingredient that is required to gain optimal support in Scotland for Indy…
“The UK would be speeding fast towards the no-deal cliff with no-one driving the bus at all”
Oh, don’t you worry Stu, the VIP taxdodgers, the tory neocons, the ERG and the USA corporation interests will be driving the bus by remote control if the automatic pilot fails.
I can see an scenario rapidly developing where, due to Westminster’s paralysis, then another focus of power starts to flex it’s muscles.
There is a powerbase in the North of England centred around the mayors, e.g. Andy Burnham & Joe Anderson, who could step up to the plate – at least in an English forum.
That doesn’t solve Brexit/No Brexit, I know, but it is rapidly becoming clear that a solution from within Westminster is not about to be forthcoming. The Westminster system of centralised government has completely failed and is actually collapsing in front of our eyes. Leadership from within Westminster is currently impossible.
If you peel away the veneer of “Brexit” what actually needs to be solved is a newly born English Nationalism. Any solution lies there. I believe that Westminster knows and fears this. It’s the ultimate Genie escaped from the confines of the lamp. Sooner rather than later someone will articulate this clearly for the masses and it will develop a momentum of it’s own, either to a solution or a bonfire.
The SNP, if it were clever, should start to push this narrative, so that it becomes a conversational item. Once you start to have a conversation about something it starts to build it’s own gravity. Admitting to the English Nationalist Genie is only a step away from a conversation about an Independent England and a solution for England – the rest will just happen.
The Scottish govt has no choice while we are in UK but to go for least worst option and try to take no deal off the table. Their position has not changed at all. They don’t want brexit at all but while part of UK must try to make the best of a terrible situation brought on by squabbling unprincipled Tories.
“The SNP have a responsibility to fight against a damaging No-deal as a priority.”
Then it should have backed the Withdrawal Agreement, because what it’s doing now makes no-deal far more likely. You have to fight the war you’re in.
“PS if no party wants the Prime Ministers job the Queen can force the issue”
Yeah, that’s the kind of no-answer answer people have been giving. What does it MEAN? Who does she pick? On whose say-so?
She could opt for the President of the EU. Such a move would unite the UK fairly fast, I suspect. Alternately, she could pick from previous living PM’s.
Brilliant synopsis.
I agree, May’s untouchable deal is starting to look a reasonable option as we head towards full political meltdown.
Or, as I’ve been saying for ages, an endless series of extensions. ‘Leaving but haven’t actually left yet’ is the UK’s relationship with the EU for the foreseeable future.
Does the prime minister actually need to be in the HoC or HoL?
May seems a silly question, with the obvious answer of precedent says yes. However, if we are talking about a temporary caretaker is a time of total impasse, whose job was to delay Brexit and hold an election, could it not be a non politician?
And there is the HoL. A non party independent lord? One with a legal background?
Would that really help? An election might return a no-deal mandated far right Tories because of FPTP. However, FPTP IS how WM governments are chosen. That IS the shite standard WM works to. And if that’s the outcome, so be it.
That would bring clarity to the SNP!
The SNP could have backed the GE, with Labour abstaining. They want an election, that’s a no brainer. But the SNP are now running scared of upsetting the establishment.
They would be tarred as Boris enablers by Labour, if they backed an election. The truth is they would be adding 20 Mp’s to their ranks and furthering the Scottish cause. So it would be in the SNP and Scotland’s interests to back an election. It’s not in the UK’s interests because it would allow Brexit to happen.
So at what point will the SNP do what is solely in Scotland’s interests? The UK parties care not a jot about Scotland or what the SNP do. But we now have an SNP who are concerned for their English neighbours so much , that they allow Scotland to suffer as a result.
That is just plain criminal.
I recall reading about a football match somewhere (I think it might have been between 2 African nations) where the rules of the tournament led to a situation where both teams needed to concede a goal to get through to the next round. I can’t remember the exact circumstances (it might have been something to do with another team in their group I think), but it resulted in both teams trying to attack their own goal and score against themselves. To me, that sounds like the perfect metaphor for UK politics at the moment.
Brutal stuff Stu, but can’t fault your logic! I’ve felt for some time that the SNP has lost its way re independence but hoped I was wrong. Now I’m not so sure! All this focus on stopping Brexit and none on actually pushing for Scottish independence, which is after all the raison d’être of the party. We seem to be supplicants begging WM for a pointless and unnecessary S30 rather than telling them we’re having our referendum as triple-mandated by the Scottish electorate! Unless we get more aggressive in fighting for our nation I fear our cause will stagnate and wither. We will go out with a whimper and not a bang!
The SNP mandate is Scotland Remains or Indyref2.
If Nicola’s true position is to stop Scotland’s EU exit, then it’s a stance that respects the will of the electorate of Scotland and she should be praised for that.
However, the SNP have compromised this democratic stance when they began looking for “Soft Brexit”.
If I read it right, Stu says that May’s deal or “Soft Brexit” should be voted for. By the SNP?
If the SNP vote for that they will be voting against the will of the people of Scotland. Though going against the will of the people never bothered them before when they tried to negotiate Soft Brexit.
There’s no point in having a General Election unless the SNP used it as a manifesto opportunity to dissolve the Union, by seeking a mandate to form a provisional sovereign Scottish Govt, until Scotland holds its own confirmatory indyref as a de facto independent state.
But, that would take decisiveness, courage and real commitment to Scotland’s sovereignty.
So, the SNP will do what the SNP usually do: wait and see what England decides for Scotland next. Then Tweet their outrage.
A Dogs Dinner!
Osakisushi says:
GORDON FEDERAL BROWN!
Superb choice, guaranteed to be hated by everyone and would certainly focus minds 🙂
What if the UK government resigns and no one replaces it…
First up, all matters that were hitherto reserved, can no longer be : )
Wings,
You have to accept certain realities:
1. UK determines when there is a next indyref
2. there was a indyref five years ago.
For the first point, you could say that UK does not grant one. In this case, you have to hope people in Scotland get agitated by the realities of the UK – Scottish opinion does not matter even in determining their own constitution. It is politically tenious to claim Scotland cant have a referendum particularly if Brext results in a prolonged economic slump. If Scottish people accept that line – they deserve whatever is coming to them.
During a supposed indyref2, so quickly after the first one. It would be ridiculous to fight on the grounds of a material change without having attempted to keep the UK in the EU. The UK is in such a place where it is literally impossible to stop Brexit, but the SNP position has to be to keep Scotland in the EU through stopping Brexit until we have Brexited. We might not Brexit at all, but it would be dishonest to say we have Brexited when we haven’t yet and run a referendum before Westminster has decided what will happen. It is a shitty situation, but ultimately it is for Scottish public opinion to determine a lot of this.
If they vote no to indy, and they keep voting no to indy with BoJo, Brexit and all the rest – it is hard to see what the UK government can do to convince some people to switch their votes. This strategy is working for now.
For the first time I disagree with The Rev’s comment. Nicola Sturgeon did not lie. Watch FMQs where she quite specifically spoke loudly and slowly, as she said for the benefit of Carlaw, that she did not want Brexit, she wanted an Independent Scotland to be in the European Union.
Kenneth Clarke has already intimated that he would fill the role as temporary PM. Interestingly he also added that Jeremy Corby would have backing from himself and others on the proviso that only Brexit would be the remit, and no other areas of policy were included.
The SNP seem to be profiting from inaction rather than doing anything spectacular. Time will tell I suppose, though even that is limited.
Gavin Alexander at 02.08.
I agree with your concerns. It seems Stu Campbell thinks he can help the Indy cause by attacking the SNP, talking about an alternative Party and trying to convince folk that his approach for an Indy referendum is better than the SNP’s.
I just don’t buy it and though I have contributed regularly in the past to his site, that has now ended.
yeah but no but
Nicola has to be seen to be an international statesperson in order to get female votes. She gets that by motherly/protective to our close neighbour.
come on Stu..you know this
No DEAL is a dead duck.
Accepting the Irish backstop with watered down conditions will be enough for
Boris Johnston to bring enough tories back on board to get brexit over the line by 31/10/2019
BBC are helping out by showing a programme on tv “spotlight” about the troubles in Northern Ireland in the sixties and seventies in which they will claim there was equal blame on both sides.
This will help Boris get his softened approach accepted.
Boris will accept the backstop but will accompany it with some tough talking about what his plans are for the future for the benefit of the no deal supporters.
Brexit will happen and Corbyn will be blamed for the watered down version
SNP will call a Scottish independence referendum because Scotland had been taken out of the EU against its will
England will say the SNP action is understandable and forgive them because they tried so hard to prevent brexit then England will set about trying its very best to prevent a Scottish independence referendum win by the YES side
I’m half expecting Boris to offer us a referendum in return for an election. The polls don’t read well for Labour* in and while I get the trying to prevent a no deal scenario I’m not sure I see the point. If Boris wins any election he can simply repeal anything passed now and pursue his own course. So if the intent is an extension to the EU departure to say March 2020 then I still see an election in Oct/Nov and an indyref in 2020 (probably May, I don’t buy the bullshit that it would take the Electoral Commission months to mull over the wording…they passed the last one keep it the same).
If that occurs then, if I understand Stu correctly, the Wings party idea is less pressing and it will be all hands to the Indy pump.
* Which against a backdrop of raising the pension to 75 is criminal negligence on Corbyn’s part.
The whole thing is a mess and I have a lot of sympathy with Stu. I can’t tolerate politics on TV any more and I used to be a bit of politics binge watcher. Satire and political statement are so blurred half the time I don’t know if it is a press release or the Daily Mash.
I should have made clear in my comment above – no more “financial” contributions to Wings fund raising efforts
Everyone lying
Some people making commentary have lost their way
Pity, especially about some supposed Independence supporting websites.
Just as well support for the SNP and Independence is rising. The best time to have an IndyRef is when it can be won.
Trojan Horse
You are going to make independence harder to achieve with this sort of stuff. You have NO IDEA what the SNP strategy is. Your assumptions have let you down in the past and you are making assumptions now. I do not understand where you are coming from these days. This is bizarre stuff indeed.
There will will be no deal by October 31st. The so-called united kingdom will crash out of the EU. There will be a general election in November. The SNP will use the GE as a de facto independence referendum.
Hopefully the SNP will win 50+ seats. Even if it’s only [!] 40+ seats, the Scottish government will ask one last time for Section 30 to be agreed. It will not be. Scotland will withdraw its SNP MPs from Westminster. Holyrood will vote to end the union with England.
England will try to close down Scotland’s parliament. Civil disobedience and disorder will begin. Then it’ll be up to the people of Scotland whether they want to fight for Scotland’s independence.
Stupid in my opinion is correct in many ways,but not in some.
Should the SNP have already gone to court to establish the legal Sovereign right of Scots to hold a referendum?—yes.
Are the SNP giving it loud and proud about indy?–not enough. Ruth Davidson talks about indy more than the SNP elected officials. We’ve been saying that for two years on this site.
Currently ,the exit from Europe is looming large,with no clear solution on the horizon. The SNP now find themselves in a rearguard action to remove a no deal Brexit for the whole of the UK. Fair enough, but a no deal Brexit is probably the very thing that would secure an indy majority.
A Brexit deal may well muddy the waters of independence.
Further to this, it means a new government would have at least two years to attack Scottish independence, should the UK survive the inevitable consequences of a hard Brexit. People will also become resigned to shortages and financial hardship. They have for centuries.
The SNP should actually have had by now the levers in place to move an indy vote forward at short notice, but they have not.
Somebody ,somewhere in the SNP is calling the wrong shots at present
Not stupid, but Stu. Dan predictatext
The FM clearly stated what her and the Scottish governments terms were in a paper published in Dec 2016 and then ignored by the Tories in Westminster.
She has not budged from that compromise position that a deal to keep Scotland in the Single Market and Customs Union would be the least bad option if it proved impossible to remain a full member of the EU.
Not only did she argue that although this would be her preference that the entire UK remain in both CU and SM she recognised that England and Wales had voted to leave and said as much in her speech at Bute House when she announced the paper “Scotland’s Place In Europe.
Ms Sturgeon said: “I accept that there is a mandate in England and Wales to take the UK out of the EU. However, I do not accept that there is a mandate to take any part of the UK out of the single market.
She went further and the paper outlined how it might be possible to let England and Wales leave and Scotland kept in the CU and SM. Just as has been proposed for Northern Ireland.
So she said the “second strand” of the paper proposes ways in which Scotland could stay in the single market – through the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the European Economic Area (EEA) – even if the rest of the UK chooses to leave.
Ms Sturgeon insisted this option did not prioritise membership of the EU single market over continued free trade across the UK, but would “safeguard both”.
She added: “Talk of a hard border for Scotland has always rung hollow from a UK government that says no such hard border will be required between a post-Brexit UK and the Republic of Ireland, a continuing member of the EU.”
link to archive.fo
It is a fact that the FM proposed a deal to Westminster that was acceptable to the Scottish Government. This was completely and totally ignored of course. Scotland voted 62% to remain and that’s where the mandate comes from to keep Scotland in the EU by any means possible.
The best way to do that of course is for Scotland to become an Independent country and it has clear for months now that the FM’s intention is to hold a second referendum in the latter half of 2020. She has never deviated from her statement in 2017 prior to Article 50 being triggered that she will announce a date for a second referendum when the “terms of Brexit are clear”.
Still waiting on that. Hopefully not too much longer now though.
here’s a bit of’fun’ about Queenie choosing the PM
1963 Alec Douglas Home was preferred.
I understood Lord Hailsham was considered as in one version below but was in the Lords at the time.
Take your pick.
Mind you it’s history and today’s situation is a bit of a conundrum innit?
link to archive.is
link to archive.is
IMO it is perfectly understandable to want NO Brexit, want a No Deal Brexit and want Independence for Scotland.
We want to be independent but with neighbours who are either still in the EU or failing that neighbours who have a Customs Union with the EU, a free trade agreement and freedom of movement.
What we definitely do not want is a neighbour on No Deal which, quite apart from the consequences for commerce and travel could lead to an existential threat to Scotland if things go as badly in that No Deal scenario as they might.
IMV even the worst case scenarios out there, bad as they are, all still assume London will retain the brunt of its current finance ‘services’ industry which is by no means certain. Lose that and it really will be riot time down there.
I do hope Doug @3.35pm is right! Only my take us that 30 SNP MP’s is enough – it’s a majority.
Not sure why Sturgeon is suddenly ‘lying’ when she has made it perfectly clear that she opposes Brexit. As any fule kno, Sturgeon is diligently building goodwill in the EU so that Scotland will be fast-tracked back in when we finally wriggle free. I suspect that deal has already been struck. The SNP will certainly not make the same mistake as the Catalans, despite the impatient Scottish ‘shooglies’ demand for some kind of futile ‘action’.
Brexit isn’t just about Brexit though, because as soon as Boris Johnson gets control, if he gets control, before you can say no deal Brexit we’ll be stuck with our new big Donald Trump alliance and joining America in a war on Iran over a barrel of oil that we don’t even need
We bit of longer term thinking about who you get involved in debt with
The guy who’s bankrolling Boris has a £300 million bet on the stock exchange on British business going bust so you can bet your boots Boris will pull every trick in the book or he doesn’t cash in
Don’t be fooled too much by this talk of what we should be involved in or not, because at this moment in time Scotland is still in this Union so everything that goes on in it is our business because it will affect us
If you live in a semi and next doors house is burning down you don’t just stand there and watch it burn because you don’t like the guy who lives in it, because yours is about to catch fire too
Problem – Reaction – Solution
Brexit – May, then Boris – WM passes the WA
Think you might be right, but whose steering all this?
I wonder if Wings is taking its eye off the ball with talk of a Wings Party, etc.
As a blog, you are doing a great job, Stuart. As your banner says, ‘Soaring ABOVE Scottish politics’. Please keep it that way.
As a remainer and Yesser, an SNP member and someone who doesn’t mind putting their hands in their pockets for Wings and the SNP, I have to say, while I am still behind NS, this tactic of trying to save England from Herself is wearing thin.
We F**ked up by taking the anti-brexit position – we should’ve remained shtoom.
Brexit is going to happen, so why on earth wouldn’t the SNP make the most of that reality to make sure it works in favour of achieving an Independent Scotland? – my flabber is and continues to be, gasted at the current strategy. All options, in my opinion, are just about exhausted and onward to indyref2 we should go.
An EU Exit extension could actually start to damage our position as patience wears thin with the anti-democrats – of which the SNP is now in danger of becoming. The situation is now so confusion, people are listening to simple narratives.
The UK deserves Brexit. Scotland needs to get out while we can.
Time for an SNP U-Turn – do a deal with the Tories to pass the WA in return for an agreed, quick, Indyref2.
For folk to start attacking the SNP at a time like this is just unbelievable. They need all the help they can get. Managing well, in the circumstances. Independence has never been so close.
Then there are the doubters. False flag.
Scotland needs to stay in EU or at least EEA so SNP must continue to be seen to oppose Brexit – what possible justification could they present for changing policy?
They are unlikely to be able to prevent English nationalism continuing to destroy the viability and credibility of the UK but must be seen to try.
Launching our lifeboat before the ship hits the iceberg would be folly.
NT
Probably not the best time to make a poll question suggestion after disagreeing with you Stuart but the following ocurred to me the other day. Its a question couplet.
First
If there was a General Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Libdem
Greens
Other
None of the above
Second
If there was a General Election in a future independent Scotland, which party would you vote for?
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Libdem
Greens
Other
None of the above
Obviously, the reason behind this couplet of questions would be to get some estimate of what a future independent Scotland might look politically but more importantly get an assessment of how many voters are currently ‘lending’ their vote to the SNP which could prove to be very useful information
@a hundred the idiot,
I agree. The next election will see either a majority of Tories and/or Brexit candidates in England. Together they will have a majority to do whatever they want. We know that the English public want out of Europe. No doubt about that.
They could bring legislation to leave Europe the very next day they are elected. No deal.No nothing. Where are we then with the likes of Farage and by then a resurgent Johnson or Give running the UK.
Tough times ahead,and no prepared escape route in sight.
Trying to destroy the independence mandate – my recollection is that the SNP manifesto referred to being taken out of the EU against our will only as an example – such as. There have been plenty of other reasons, starting immediately after the referendum with EVEL.
With regard to the chances of Jo Swinson offering IndyRef2, would you believe her if she did? If so, would you like to buy London Bridge from me?
So the rev. (Pretendy) believes the First Minister is lying. Are you telling the truth?
Where’s the pretendy party?
Thank god for scotgoespop.
Stuart is angry and rightly so. Not just with the usual suspects but also with the SNP leadership for leading their supporters down a blind Brexit alley. My impression is that Nicola Sturgeon has been got at (perhaps advised to “think very carefully” about what she and her party do next).
The saddest aspect of all this is that no matter how many SNP MP’s are elected to Westminster at the general election this autumn, the UK establishment will still be in command and will still be calling the shots. And, in the event that the Tories secure a large majority, the independence issue will be pushed to one side and forgotten about for another 300 years.
O/T
On the basis of the fact that it is a good idea to keep an eye on what one’s enemies are up to I read the on-line versions of the Mail, Express, Telegraph, Guardian and Independent daily.
Unless I have missed it, in spite of all of said blats commenting daily on the prospects of England, Wales and Ireland in The RWC I have yet to see a single mention of Scotland.
The Withdrawal Agreement – by place the border in the Irish Sea, and allowing for different trading conditions for NI compared to other parts of the UK – Breaches the Terms of the Act/Treaty of Union.
For this reason the SNP MUST NOT be seen to approve, or vote for it.
If rUK wants to breach the Terms of the Treaty of Union…. that is their decision, not ours.
It is also extremely damaging for our economy – only slightly worse than no deal.
I think this is one of our last levers, we must not throw it away.
I suppose living in bath engerlund gives you a perspective awY from folk living here.
Ps
We all want independence but we need to win it
Scotland will have to wait until the EU door is entirely shut to the UK. Who knows but on the day the EU announces that the UK have left the Union, the EU may offer its place to an independent Scotland, then all to play for. There are international laws about keeping and fleecing colonies and I’m sure Scotland will get support from both the UN and the EU.
@Hamish 100,
You sound like a jilted acolyte. Try thinking for yourself.
It’s amazing the amount of proud Scot buts who live in England but troll the internet complaining about what the Daily Mail and the Express tells them about Scottish politics
Also amazingly most of them support the Unionist football team from their sofas in London and were ex army veterans of 3 meals a day and never struggled a day in their lives but defended *our country* that they haven’t set foot in for umpteen years and wouldn’t recognise it if they did
If you’ve been out of Scotland for the last ten years or so then return, guaranteed you wouldn’t even know where you are half the time the transformation has been so much for the better
The Daily Mail and the Express don’t tell people that
The complaint used to be nobody wants to come to Scotland, now they complain there’s too many people coming to Scotland, I wonder why eh!
Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
Are we one single step closer to having a second indyref than we were three years ago?
——————
yes. by playing the anti brexit card, support for no is falling and support for yes is rising.
polls which consistently show a majority for yes move us forward to holding indyref2
it is a gamble, as you point out, supporting and proposing a “stop” brexit policy will and has gained support for indy but if it succeeds it removes our mandate to hold indyref2.
there in lies the gamble, such a policy will only work if the snp fail to stop brexit. presently, the polls show that regardless of by which mechanism brings it about, a ge is going to happen and bojos no deal tories will win.
as such, i think nicola is following the right policy
I suppose the rationale is that, in the context of a Brexiting UK, there would be a proposed hard border between rUK and Scotland, which rightly or wrongly could be perceived as a difficult sell to those most likely to change their minds for an indy Scotland.
That’s assuming that as part of the proposal was the intention to remain/re-join the EU. Opponents will try to ridicule an SNP proposing an indy Ref based on escaping the outcome of the WA they’ve consistently told us was rubbish but have just voted for. But the narrative for that is clear; we’ve done everything in our power to stop this madness, and now all other available options are worse than letting rUK/England having what it wants whilst we decide our own future.
Part of the deal to vote for the WA would have to be dependent on holding the indy Ref, of course.
There’s also an open goal to build consensus for that majority support in Scotland; there are many versions of a changing EU relationship, the UK was only presented a narrow choice hemmed in by strict red lines based on greedy self-interest. If, as a prerequisite of holding an indy Ref, you were to promise that all options would be on the table and that an indy Scotland would decide what was best, then we could achieve a convincing win.
Any reasonable leave/remain voter and every Yes voter should welcome that.
I’ve been concerned at the change in the Rev’s writings since the ‘Dugdale’ business.
I’m fed up of the constant anti-SNP dogma now coming from what is supposed to be an Indy blog.
Have contributed to every fundraiser, but this is the final straw.
Maybe ask myself if we did get Indy, what would happen to the Rev’s lifestyle without fundraisers – is that why he attacks Nicola at every opportunity now? Some years back ‘Rock’ used to say things like everything not necessarily being what they seem (with reference to the National, particularly).
I will keep voting SNP until Indy is achieved, but I give up on Wings. I want to be encouraged not depressed.
In-D-Car Gordon Ross 6.9.19 – A new set of options for Boris Johnson have emerged.
link to youtube.com
link to twitter.com
According to the above figures, an October election results in a thumping Tory majority. The SNP wins 50+ seats. So what? It’d be no better than the 2015-2017 parliament.
A November election results in another, probably badly hung parliament. The SNP still wins 50+ seats and can trade these votes for IndyRef powers being devolved.
Do you really think Johnson will turn around after winning a majority and allow IndyRef2 to be held?
A useful pull-out guide to the present state of politics as practiced in the big hoose by the Thames. Unfortunately, it will have a very short shelf life as it is likely to be overcome by events, dear boy, events.
The Scottish government, acting on behalf of the electorate who voted to remain in the EU, is probably doing the correct thing by arguing, whenever possibly, to remain in the EU. Yes, achieving that would destroy the current Indyref2 mandate but a), realistically, how likely is it that Brexit, in whatever form, would or could be cancelled and, b), if it was, wouldn’t the resulting political tsunami in the aforementioned big hoose by the Thames encourage more of the Scottish electorate to consider as a valid option Scottish independence? Or, in other words , ‘keep calm, carry on.
The other bit of realism which the aforementioned seems to be avoiding, other than lying – as ever, is considering what happens after Brexit, since it is not an end point but the start of a long process and, again, the Scottish government may be following the correct strategy of being nice to the EU, and to the Nordic nations. If there is a no-deal Brexit, at some point, as the ramifications sink in, whoever is running the show in the aforementioned will need to ask the EU for a trade deal. That may not go well.
“If opposition parties refuse to give Johnson an October election and if he decides he cannot break his promise to deliver Brexit, then Johnson very quickly runs out of other options. …. under those circumstances he would opt instead to resign as prime minister.”
link to businessinsider.com
Seems implausibly simplistic!
I never thought I would say this but…..
I’ve stopped reading a quarter of a way through this article, I’m just fed up of all this utter bullshit by all sides and I really do fail to understand why our First Minister and the rest of the SNP are battling so hard to keep the “UK” in the EU or Common Market when the the Brexiters are so hell bent on a No Deal exit.
Let us say that every person in Scotland was going to vote for independence. Sounds brilliant doesn’t it?
Now, how do we get the referendum?
Declare UDI? It hasn’t worked for other countries.
Demand a section 30 from Westminster governed probably by Brexit and Tory and DUP? Not sure they will concede that.
Civil disobedience? Might not end well.
Nicola is trying to find a cast iron legal route to independence by hoping that some of the greatest liars,deceivers and populists that will rule this UK next year, will accede to her wishes and grant a section 30.
I have a better chance of flapping my arms and ending up on Jupiter.
What then are our options? The Rev is right to ask the question.
sassenach @4:20
I suggest you toughen up. Or do you just want to hang out with the ‘lets all slap ourselves on the back’ gang.
To suggest the SNP can do no wrong or make a strategic error is just wee boy thinking.
And to have a go at the Revs ‘lifestyle’ – below the belt. What are you doing for Indy? – probably a damn sight less than the Rev. You might even be making more than the living wage.
If all you want is to be encouraged then I suggest you go join yourself a mindfulness meeting……whatever the f*ck that is…….
While I’m glad ye said something Stu,because it needed saying!
Ultimately the real reason we’re no any closer to independence is because the Scottish People aren’t demanding it!
We can all only do so much, but, if some people can’t or won’t see it,then we’re stuck….
But while we’re stuck I don’t see any reason not to play with the system we’re stuck in…
Therefore Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP absolutely have a mandate to stymie Brexit.
Unless and until we leave or are thrown out ( either way works for me ) we have the right to stir the shit and prevent what we want when we want,and the English voters just have to live with it!!
Thepnr @ 3.37
The compromise was always a non started any way Alex…
If we stayed in the single market and England didn’t the question then becomes which market the oil and gas are in?
Obviously we would say ours and the EU would likely agree !
But Westminster would never agree to that.
It would likely be the same with all our other major exports Whisky,Electricity ect.
Not to mention the the reserved issues held at Westminster would be subject to EU law and that would create a demand to devolve them…. Which would finish up being independence by the back door and Westminster can’t afford to let that happen
My only hope is that the SNP have a deep strategy of appearing to want to stop Brexit entirely, to appeal to No-Remainers, whilst gambling on the fact that the English are going to fuck everything up and a no deal Brexit is inevitable. Those No-Remainers then doing the decent thing and switching to Yes.
Alan says:
Do you really think Johnson will turn around after winning a majority and allow IndyRef2 to be held?
——————
possibly not, but this would cause support for yes to continue to rise and every election going forward would become an indyref
in truth, we were already in the situation of potentially being refused indyref2, the only thing which is changing is the level of support for yes
it is the rise in support for yes which will eventually win us independence. everything else is just padding
Solutions to the current impasse:
1. The Duke of Edinburgh takes de Piffle out for a drive while he’s at Balmoral this weekend, unfortunate accident.
2. Ken Clarke becomes interim PM, immediately tells the EU we’re withdrawing Article 50 and staying in pending another Referendum, but one at which all the claims and counter-claims will be tested before publication. No lies written on the side of buses, the electorate know what they are voting for.
3. Scotland declares UDI, and, because we are an oil-producing state, Trump sends in the US Marines, we became the 51st state, which, at a stroke gives Holyrood more power than it currently has. We then are the main conduit between the USA and Europe and we get even-richer. Simples.
Depressing but true insight into the omnishambles that exists. I don’t know what the answer is but I’ve decided to go out and get drunk. It might ease the pain for a while.
@schrodingers cat
“a ge is going to happen and bojos no deal tories will win.”
Sure, the Tories might win a General election and then again they may not. Johnson’s best chance was having one before the 31st of Oct and that plan has clearly been spiked by the opposition now.
The earliest we will have an election now is sometime in November, aboslutely nothing is going to happen until Johnson is obligated to go cap in hand on 19th Oct begging for an extesion to article 50.
I’d think it’s more likely he would resign rather than do that, an emergency governmnet would then need to be formed and the Queen would have to ask the MP most likely to cammand a majority in the house to succeed Johsnon as PM. Something similar occured in 1940 with Churchill taking over from Chamberlin.
On the morning of Friday, 10 May, Germany invaded the Netherlands and Belgium. Chamberlain initially felt that a change of government at such a time would be inappropriate, but upon being given confirmation that Labour would not serve under him, he announced to the War Cabinet his intention to resign.
Scarcely more than three days after he had opened the debate, Chamberlain went to Buckingham Palace to resign as Prime Minister. Despite resigning as PM, however, he continued to be the leader of the Conservative Party. He explained to the King why Halifax, whom the King thought the obvious candidate, did not want to become Prime Minister.
The King then sent for Churchill and asked him to form a new government; according to Churchill, there was no stipulation that it must be a coalition government.
My main point though is that Johnson is not assured of winning a General election that is delayed into November. An ICM poll today has the Tories leading Labour by 9 points IF the election is before 31st Oct. If the UK fails to leave the EU by that date then the Brexit party vote doubles from 9 to 218% and the Tories are neck and neck with Labour.
Why do you think that the opposition are holding back? I’m sure it’s because it increases their chances of winning said election.
So all sort of names i have never seen before disagreeing and even saying that you have been wrong in the past. I can recall you being wrong in the past , however even if you were you still get it right far more than any other political commentator
I cant make up my mind whether Sturgeon is playing a blinder or is being advised wrongly. Im glad to see that she has learned to say the I word again recently. However I agree with you the Section 30 issue should have been tested in the courts two years ago. Having said that I think uou are being a wee bit harch on the Snp, I cannot see politically where they could vote for the withdrawel agreement, its still a hard Brexit after all. A retweet you did today sums up Westminster Today.
link to mobile.twitter.com
@Liz g
“If we stayed in the single market and England didn’t the question then becomes which market the oil and gas are in?”
I’m not sure what you mean by this, the question of who the oil and gas belongs to is a question of International Law. When Scotland is Independent and is either in or out of the EU the question of which market the oil and gas are in is immaterial.
If England is out of the EU and the single market and customs union then we will have to deal with that exactly the same as every other EU member does.
For me that is not a risk in any way shape or form, there will always be a market for Scotland’s exports, I’m sure after Independence the rUK will be doing it’s damnedest to get a Free Trade Agreement with Scotland. After all we’ll hold all the cards 🙂
Ken500 @ 15:24:
Well, that is a truism that we’ve heard here before.
Here’s one in return:
I don’t believe though we need be pessimistic about the UK political establishment falling apart, as it is manifestly doing. It proves we were right all along, and many ordinary people in Scotland are now changing from no to yes over it. So what’s the problem?
The main one I see is that apathy and disillusion can so easily set in, if some supporters of the SNP keep implying that the party doesn’t have the stomach for the necessary confrontation in a sufficiently timely manner. That first quote is perfectly correct at face value, but what it always seems to carry with it is an underlying sense of a lack of self-belief, a willingness to just wait in the hope that things somehow continue to produce converts until the magic 60% bell rings. A bell that with pesent tactics may never ring. It’s this apparent stagnation and communicated sense of passivity which is demoralising, and causing some of the more restless among us to look for alternative ways forward.
There remain worrying signs of that this “60%” thinking among the SNP politicians as well, as eg. by Andrew Wilson with his recent tut-tutting about “populism”. As if energising people to have hope in the future was somehow beneath his dignity and, well… disreputable.
Yes, of course we need to judge we are steadily garning enough support for a fair chance of a win, and yes, the stakes are very high, but we will never get a guarantee, and waiting a whole other year while we sort out England’s problems first stands a very good change of losing the swell of support at home and leaving our own affairs far, far too late. The strategy has been very productive until now, and won many friends, not least – crucially – at home, but sooner rather than later we will need to engage more strongly with our own concerns.
However, I do detect a definite change in tone and intent from the SNP leadership these days, and I’m hopeful that they are not as wedded to another miserable year of “wait & see” that some supporters appear to expect (and maybe even wish).
So I’m still feeling cautiously upbeat. We are winning the argument, it’s just a question of timing this right then coming out full-bore to actively promote our case and fully engage everyone, instead of just sitting by hoping for better days.
By that engagement we will build the necessary and rightful win.
After whatever flavour Brexit is, all the media including the State Broadcaster will be full of stories about how shite the EU is, that we got out at the right time, everything is going to be wonderful and that shite really is chocolate.
It has already started as we’ve just been told that “austerity has ended”, now there’s money for this and money for that.
The very idea that we will all be told leaving the EU was a mistake, is simply ridiculous.
People on here who believe that everyone will see the light after Brexit are, unfortunately for Scotland, fucking delusional.
Thnpr “The earliest we will have an election now is sometime in November, aboslutely nothing is going to happen until Johnson is obligated to go cap in hand on 19th Oct begging for an extesion to article 50.”
According to Finnish Sources their is not a concensus in the EU to grant one.
Johnston will not ask for an extension. His handlers will not allow him too. He will either ignore the law or resign and as the Rev asks what happens next? There will be a no deal Brexit.
It’s a pity there’s not a market for 2nd hand dummies.
Unhygienic 🙂
ahundredthidiot says@4-34
“To suggest the SNP can do no wrong or make a strategic error is just wee boy thinking.”
I never said or suggested such a thing, can you not read? If not then kindly wind yer neck in.
It has long been acknowledged that only the SNP can secure independence for us ( or do you have another Party that can do it?).
My ‘beef’ is purely that, of late both here and on his twitter site, the Rev has been constantly having a go at the Leader when we all know independence is coming to a head, one way or the other. That just doesn’t fit with a so-called independence supporter.
@REV
“Then it should have backed the Withdrawal Agreement, because what it’s doing now makes no-deal far more likely. You have to fight the war you’re in”
They couldn’t vote for a WA!! Scotland voted remain!! It’s really that simple.
And we are where we are with ‘No Deal’ … so the SNP were and are right to fight it to the end. A ‘No deal’ is literally ‘off the cliff’ edge. And the simple and least important example I used before, you are British living in Cyprus say, your British Driving licence is invalid overnight.
In the ‘sensible’ Brexit scenario, there is a window of negotiation. There is the chance for Scotland to extract themselves and to continue with EU.
In a ‘No Deal’ – A Johnson, Moggs victory… not so much!!
So again, it is absolutely right for the Scottish Government to aid the blocking of No-deal and to hold off on the election to prevent Johnson getting what he wants.
Sure, there are possible scenario’s, including Johnson ignoring or standing down. And we could end up back at ‘No Deal’ but Scotland will have done what is right, just and principled.
In my view, this will strengthen our support and majority for Independence. We can all go crazy if a section 30 is denied by any party in power. And while we can do this, the SNP will be on the way to Strasbourg, Luxembourg to argue that EU law counts in this case. Westminster is not impartial, so UK law is effete here. Don’t forget that it was EU pressure that gave Scotland devolution, not Labour or Tony Blair as they like to claim. And if ECJ doesn’t work, then I am sure Cherry and Co will be at the United Nations citing the events of the past months… There will be sympathy.
Shouting at the SNP is totally counter productive. Criticism, fine. But to all those who are throwing their toys out the pram, you are weakening our chances.
The Union wants, indeed seeks division. And we are handing it on a fucking plate.
If everything I say is a lie, am I lying now….
Your sounding more and more like the English version of the Daily Mail Stu , SNP baad , especially Nicola Sturgeon , maybe time for you to fly off.
And right on cue, we have an explanation of what is supposed to happen if Johnson refuses to seek and extension and resigns instead.
OK, so now being asked a lot about PM resignations and advice to the Queen. Not going to go back over all the complications of this, just set out what the Cabinet Manual says…
“…If the Prime Minister resigns on behalf of the Government, the Sovereign will invite the person who appears most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House to serve as Prime Minister and to form a government.”
So in case of outgoing minority PM resigning, for whatever reason, key is who the Queen then turns to. The bit that leads to MANY discussions is the ‘most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House’. Tricky without a formal process to prove it…
Full thread here:
link to twitter.com
At the end of it all, you will be no wiser LOL. There is at least a plan of sorts.
I’ve typed ‘Sovereignty’ so many times I can pick out the ‘S’, ‘O’, ‘V’, etc keystrokes with the tablet turned off.
Most of my criticism and SNPbad down the years has been exasperation that the SNP has steadfastly refused to embrace Scotland’s sovereign Constitution, and despite not making myself any friends amongst the SNP, I’ve never felt guilty about their annoyance because I have never once doubted that (pardon the immodesty) I am right, and they are wrong. Our Constitutional Sovereignty is the key to Independence, NOT democracy. Democracy is a fallacy. It’s a benign fallacy I suppose, understandable too, but still false. Our freedom lies in our sovereignty.
But there is an area of SNPbad which has nothing to do with the strategic master plan of favouring a democratic strategy over a constitutional strategy, and it very much does get under my skin.
There’s an expression which runs that an Army with nobody to fight will fight with itself, and perhaps my greatest annoyance which may prove difficult to forgive, is the way the whole diaspora of the 2014 YES movement has been left out in the cold, hung out to dry, left to their own devices but given nothing whatsoever to sustain itself beyond a bland “trust Nicola” narrative which has never cut any ice with me since the first day I heard it.
Just look at wee TartanPiggsy and his efforts to get his 10,000 YES flags crowdfunded. But where is the momentum for 10,000 flags?… Little cogs connect with bigger cogs all through the YES movement and NEED to know the script to plan ahead and do their bit, and anticipate demand, and frankly it’s pretty damned selfish that our “leaders” just don’t lead. Where does that leave YES Lieutenants like TartanPiggsy?. There’s the Arc of Prosperity Blog based in Denmark now, because there’s only so long before uncertainty becomes intolerable and literally unaffordable. How nice it must be to have all the time in the world.
We now have blogs at each other’s throats and comments BTL spitting acrimonious criticism and accusations, we have the SNP fully entrenched with their fingers in their ears, we have AUOB marches stimulating tremendous momentum which then turns into a treading water exercise because that momentum has nowhere to go. We have people falling silent online because they’re just losing heart, when all of us, ALL OF US, across our whole spectrum of different and sometimes conflicting perspectives, just want to get this business fkg done and get our marvellous wee Nation out of this parasitic Union and standing again on it’s own two feet as the tough and hardy wee Nation that knew fine how to look after itself back in the 14th Century.
We were getting so much right back in 2013/14, yes, we lost, be we had such forward momentum that if we’d held the vote again in October we’d have won. It was that momentum which sent 53 out of 56 SNP MP’s to Westminster, and swelled the ranks of the SNP membership by tens of thousands.
And then, the icing on the cake… against all the odds in Christendom, the heaven sent miracle we never thought possible… Less that two years after defeat, Indy was already back on the agenda. The UK Government gave us a Brexit Referendum, and Scotland, bless you Scotland, delivered a democratic constitutional battering ram to break down the doors at the Palace of Westminster and liberate forever Scotland’s Sovereign Nation status. England voted Leave, and Scotland voted stay and the Union had an unreconcilable Constitutional dilemma. It was doomed.
…. And then it all stopped.
Ever since the SNP turned it’s back of Scotland’s Constitutional marvel in 2016, and opted to compromise on a soft Brexit Single Market consolation prize, we have been lost, at sea, and NEVER been on the front foot at any time since.
Yes, the SNP has thankfully evolved it’s position to now assert that Scotland will not be removed against it’s will, but the damage was done, and doubts persist that the SNP is sure and confident of it’s righteous Constitutional footing… I mean they know it, they know the words, but it seems the faith in it is weak.
So of our options? Where are we?
A referendum seems forlorn, because it won’t save us from Brexit. Out the EU, losing the votes of EU friends, pitting our naive aspirations against the black hearted media and perfidious Westminster Government? It feels a bleak venture for 2020 or whenever.
A General Election seems near, but will it make us or break us? If it delivers momentum for Scottish Independence, then great, except if it does, it is likely because it has delivered momentum for English Nationalism too, and bargaining for our Freedom with the Protofascists in Westminster like Johnson and Farage feels a bleak endeavour too.
And so we’re back at our trusty Constitution; the sovereignty of our people. The truth the BritNat Propagandists cannot mention, and the reality which Unionism wants to redefine like Winston Smith in the Ministry of Truth…. and a Scottish Government which seems torn between the Parliamentary Sovereignty of Westminster, and the Popular Sovereignty of the Scottish people. I’m sorry, but every which way you cut it is the same. Given our circumstances, this seems an inexcusable dilemma we really shouldn’t be having.
Oh dear Stu . You seem to have annoyed the SNP ultras.
I can only suggest Sturgeon is desperately trying to keep us in the EU, because once we exit Johnson and Co (Or whoever) will strip Holyrood of its powers. We won’t have any EU protection after a no deal Brexit, and Westminster’s menacing actions towards Holyrood will be seen as inhouse cleaning.
Sturgeon’s real problem over the last three years has in my opinion lain in the polls not showing enough folk favouring independence. Now as we near the Brexit date the polls are changing in our favour, but is it too late to call an indyref whilst we still have EU protection?
For after we leave with what looks like a no deal, it might be too late.
Should Sturgeon have called the indyref earlier, and hoped the polls favoured us?
Whichever way we end up, stripped of power or independent, we shouldve taken advantage of the utter turmoil that has encapuslated Westminster for over three years. I hope we don’t rue the day.
Or is there still time if there’s a Brexit extension?
sassenach @5:04
good to see you back…….
@Alan
“Do you really think Johnson will turn around after winning a majority and allow IndyRef2 to be held?”
He won’t want to, it will stick in his craw, but the chances are he will. For him, it’s the best option. Leave it to a vote and hope they can overturn it again. Rather than say “No” and have to fight on all fronts.
In the event he says ‘No’ there is so much pressure in Scotland now, that the SNP would have to hold a referendum without S30. (Then all the shouters and doubters would have to back up their rhetoric)
In both cases, the real fight would only start after a YES result. We would be in the ‘Referendums are advisory territory’ for sure.
A soft Unionist friend of mine referred to Sturgeon as Krankie MacMerkel a while back and I couldn’t refute it, as she’s shown more guile for
attending Remain rallies, posing for selfies with war criminals like Alistair Campbell and generally interfering in the democratic wishes of England and Wales.
It’s worrying that her happy clappers don’t see the dangerous precedent she has set by trying to overturn the 2016 result, despite the subsequent EU election results and Brecon by-election vote split. If she won’t respect England and Wales vote to Leave (however much she and others may disagree with it) then what’s to say that, after a successful YES vote, they won’t spend three years plus stamping their feet and demanding a “People’s Vote”?
Thepnr @ 4.52
Sorry I wasn’t clear Alex.
I was talking about the compromise proposal that Scotland stay in the single market while England leaves it!
The one that the Scottish Government sent to Westminster…
We wouldn’t be independent so that’s why who controlled the oil and gas becomes a question as to which market it would be in and where the revenue would be gathered?
@Breeks
Are you still certain that Scotland will be leving the EU in 55 days?
“Democracy is a fallacy”
Aye so we’ll Make that Number 1 and the first line of a new Scottish Constitution then.
You’re such a conceited arsehole, I was going to say “at times” but with you it’s all the time.
So far you’ve NEVER been right, what makes you think that this time it will be any different? Get that countdown to Brexit going again and make another fool of yourself, why don’t you.
I think the SNP has handled this about as well as could be expected. It had to oppose Brexit because the Scottish electorate voted remain. Trying to avoid No-Deal doesn’t negate the mandate for a referendum because Scotland will still be taken out of the EU against the express will of the Scottish electorate. Avoiding No-Deal is simply damage limitation. By being seen to oppose Brexit and trying to stop No-Deal the SNP cannot be accused of cynical opportunism by those opposed to independence come the next referendum.
I still expect the UK to leave with No-Deal, and it isn’t difficult for Johnson to achieve it. Probably the simplest way is to not appoint an EU commissioner and the EU will have no option but to throw the UK out. I’m sure the SNP have figured this out.
Europa extra:
link to spiegel.de
Chris Downie @5:22
‘A soft Unionist friend of mine referred to Sturgeon as Krankie MacMerkel’
Then you’re a damn fool to think your buddy is a soft Unionist – that’s the Enemy of Scotland speaking.
@Liz g
I get you now, it would have depended on the separate deal that England & Wales choose to leave under I guess. A lot has changed since 2016 so impossible to say how it was envisaged back then that it might have worked it.
The EU did agree though to keep the entire UK in the SM and CU until the border issue was solved and that’s what the backstop is all about. Just wait and see, there will be separate deals for Gibraltar and the Falkland islands too who rely on the EU in particular Spain to buy all their fish/seafood without tariffs.
“Watch FMQs where she quite specifically spoke loudly and slowly, as she said for the benefit of Carlaw, that she did not want Brexit, she wanted an Independent Scotland to be in the European Union.”
Those are two separate issues.
@ahundredthidiot
“Time for an SNP U-Turn – do a deal with the Tories to pass the WA in return for an agreed, quick, Indyref2.”
This would be stupid, ridiculous and damaging.
There should be no deals struck for a S30 and Indy2. We don’t need to make a deal, and if there was any sense in a deal being done it would not be for a one off, but a recognised in perpetuity… in other words, devolved to Holyrood.
All of you on here, talk about what we are entitled to, that Scotland is sovereign, yet in the same breath talk about “…Swinson granting…” I chose her as the example, because it is a few messages up, and is the most ridiculous. An S30 should be viewed as a piece of parliamentary process only. No one has the right to deny it or grant it. And thats how everyone should be thinking.
There is pressure coming from Ireland .. and most recently Wales. We are moving inexorably towards all countries changing their relationship with England.
There is a reemergence of the ENP – The English Nationalist Party (Tory + Brexit Party +UKIP) maybe they will even win the GE. But it will be close. There is no settled future on the UK horizon, without some serious constitutional and political change. Scottish Independence is a key part of this.
And to end on a question, if they tried to close down Holyrood, how many of you would be on the streets to defend it?
“My main point though is that Johnson is not assured of winning a General election that is delayed into November. An ICM poll today has the Tories leading Labour by 9 points IF the election is before 31st Oct. If the UK fails to leave the EU by that date then the Brexit party vote doubles from 9 to 18% and the Tories are neck and neck with Labour.”
This argument makes me want to scream.
Did you learn NOTHING from 2015? Brexit voters aren’t fucking idiots, unfortunately. In that election they voted UKIP where there was a credible chance of UKIP winning a seat, and elsewhere they voted Tory to ensure they got their referendum.
They know that what they’ve always wanted is at stake. They WILL vote tactically. The Remain vote WILL be split. The huge swathe of Labour seats are in English towns and cities that voted Leave.
You’re basically counting on about 300 miracles. You need Labour to hold all of those seats (the Lib Dems are absolutely nowhere in them) and the Tories to lose lots of seats in Brexit-voting shires because their vote’s been split by the Brexit Party. You’re betting that you can toss a coin 100 times and get 90 heads. It’s absolutely insane.
mac @5:39
‘And to end on a question, if they tried to close down Holyrood, how many of you would be on the streets to defend it?’
Surely you mean ‘us’?
@Rev
“Those are two separate issues”
I completely disagree. They are not separate by very fact that they are linked to voter numbers and independence support.
We know that there are YES supporters who are also Brexit.
And we should be seeking continuance in the EU, not a Brexit and reentry. All the signs are there that this is entirely possible, assuming a very positive YES, whether gained with an S30 or not.
Westminster has no supporters in the EU. Farage and Johnson have effectively killed the relationship. When the time is right Scotland will have formal discussions to continue in the EU.
The best way — perhaps the only way — for the UK to escape from this apparent impasse is to find a Brexit which most people could live with. You’re right, I think, that ‘Mrs May’s deal’ has the best chance of getting that level of acceptance.
But you seem to think that there is no plausible route to this outcome. I’m not so sure — Ken Clark drops strong hints that if he was a GNU-temporary-PM, this deal is what he’d propose — backed up if necessary by a popular vote.
Make a call now for independence. What’s the worst that could happen?
ahundredthidiot says:
6 September, 2019 at 5:45 pm
mac @5:39
‘And to end on a question, if they tried to close down Holyrood, how many of you would be on the streets to defend it?’
Surely you mean ‘us’?
Semantics my friend, semantics.
@Rev. Stuart Campbell
Scream away, doesn’t change the FACT that that is what the poll says.
“I completely disagree. They are not separate by very fact that they are linked to voter numbers and independence support.”
It really doesn’t matter whether you agree or not. They ARE separate issues. A vote for one does not bestow the other. Scotland can be independent in or out of the EU, and it can be in the EU whether it’s independent or not.
“Scream away, doesn’t change the FACT that that is what the poll says.”
Fucksake, try to actually read what I’m saying. The polls said Ed Miliband would fucking win. The polls tell you who people would LIKE to vote for, not who they actually WILL vote for, because in an FPTP election not all seats are equal. In some seats the party you’re aligned to have no chance and realistically you have to pick the least-worst of the others.
This isn’t an abstract theory. 2015 is the past. It actually happened. It’s why we’re in this whole sodding mess in the first place.
“It really doesn’t matter whether you agree or not. They ARE separate issues. A vote for one does not bestow the other. Scotland can be independent in or out of the EU, and it can be in the EU whether it’s independent or not”
Of course a vote for one does not favour the other, and you state the obvious “Scotland can be independent in or out of the EU, and it can be in the EU whether it’s independent or not” So fucking what?!
To insist that it ‘doesn’t matter’ and that they ARE separate issues… is Boris style piffle. The fact is the manifesto and the voting intention are intertwined. One affects the other. Many people see it this way. Let’s start with Fishing communities, YES support diminishes with remaining or fighting No-deal Brexit. There are some Fisher folk, who would like to see a Brexit to claw back control, followed by Independence to take it off of Westminster.
The issues cannot be separated black and white.
STV news fails to mention that the £160m EU money was handed over to UK gov in 2015 and merely reported that the SNP claimed this. It is a fact but left viewers with impression that SNP was sniping fr sidelines
Argh, it’s so bloody frustrating. The Westminster London English government have really played us all haven’t they. Taking the utter rip out of the people. Meanwhile Scotland has been pushed aside again and again, and doesn’t ‘matter’ one jot apparently.
Oh I think Scotland matters a lot! The Britnats are absolutely shi**ing it, the SNP would gain seats at a general election and they are not prepared for it, and certianly not willing to chance it!
Little tiny stupid, poor, pathetic subsidy junkie Scotland ‘doesn’t matter’ but it’s at least largely why the snap GE has been rejected. Lose Scotland, and it would be catastrophic for a Brexit England.
Scotland is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The history of the whole sham ‘union’ so called, has led us to this point really. England is having a tantrum, one of many,
fighting among themselves, while still keeping a very very tight hold of the reins of devolution, the strength of their grip is like one of those dogs whose teeth clamp shut on their prey.
Grrrrrrr, grrrrrr, :-^^^^^ ¬¬¬¬¬ get that big stick rammed into it’s jaw SNP before it does even more damage.
The next couple of weeks are going to be crucial. I don’t think Nicola Sturgeon has lost sight of the bigger picture for Scotland quite yet. Hope is nice, but it’s an emotion,
having it or not, does little for independence.
I think it’s getting to crux stage, but that’s just my thoughts.
Hello planet Earth, I know we have you on the back boiler quite literally while the nasty selfish rich people have us all tearing our hair out over their totally selfish mess. Sorry about that an all. 🙁
The current situation gives the Scottish government the ability to use the General Election as a plebiscite on Independence. If the GE resulted in a minority Labour government the Scottish government could negotiate a confidence and supply agreement on the basis that a confirmatory referendum would be held to ratify the terms of the independent settlement between the Scottish government and the English Parliament. This referendum could contain an option the remain in the UK. This would also satisfy the requirements for EU recognition of an Independent Scottish state.
Hold on, I thought the whole thing about a Section 30 order is it’s done by an Order in Council so parliament gets no say in the matter. That was to my recollection how Cameron did it or did I miss the vote in the HoC?
If your not stockpiling ,just in case, you should start,
food,fuel,soap,medicines,toilet paper,water,
might never happen but there is a good chance of shortages and civil unrest.
Sometimes some of the details leading up to this point get forgotten.
Originally the EU proposed that the backstop be for NI only. It was May who insisted it had to be UK wide. Perhaps because of DUP pressure. Perhaps because of the general threat to the Union the EU version would pose.
Recently the EU did say that the original Ireland only version could be available, if that helped. No takers.
Putting the single market border in the Irish Sea, or as Rev Stu once suggested, also between Gretna-Berwick, is still an option. Unacceptable to Uber BritNats and Greater England imperialists because of its long term inevitable threat to their Union, yes, but it’s still an option for everyone else.
Let me try to illustrate. A recent poll suggested that if the election was held in November and the UK hadn’t left the EU, Labour would in fact lead the Tories by six points – 28% to 22%.
So that’s all well and good. If you plug those bare numbers into Electoral Calculus, Labour gets the most seats (285), and an alliance with the Lib Dems OR the SNP gets them a majority.
In that instance we’re fucked, btw, because they’ll pick the Lib Dems rather than give us another indyref, but let’s pass that by for a moment because it’s not what we’re talking about.
EC also lets you add a “tactical fraction”, which is how many of the people who said they’d vote for Party X would in fact vote for Party Y if they thought Party X had no chance in their own seat.
I hope it’s uncontroversial to say that this number is in reality going to be highest among Tory and Brexit Party supporters. Farage has already offered the Tories a no-deal pact. As we already know, the bulk of Labour seats are in Leave constituencies and a lot of those people are going to be pretty conflicted.
Conversely, Lib Dems aren’t going to tactically vote Labour when they’re (justifiably) far from convinced that Labour really want to stop Brexit, and not many northern Labour voters are going to vote Lib Dem.
(They’re probably more likely to vote tactically for the Brexit Party, in fact, but let’s assume that the “natural” second choice for Labour is LD or Green or SNP, all Remain parties.)
So let’s give Labour and the Lib Dems a still quite generous tactical fraction (TF) of 25% each, and the Tories and Brexit Party 50% each.
In that election, even though Labour were polling several points ahead of both the Tories and BP, the Brexit Party actually wins with 223 seats. Alongside the Tories on 113 they can form a slim majority (336).
If we bump the Lib Dem TF up to 50%, the Tory/Brexit coalition actually gets bigger, with a combined 345 seats.
If we then drop the Tory TF to 25%, we get a totally hung Parliament in which NOBODY can get a majority. Lab+Lib+SNP+Green get 318, whereas Tory+BP get 313, maybe 323 with the DUP.
And if we then drop the Brexit Party TF to 25%, Labour need the Lib Dems AND the SNP to get a majority of 4 (but several of those Labour MPs are probably Leavers).
But if we bump *everyone’s* TF up to 75%, the Brexit Party crush it with 300 seats, added to 80 Tories for a comfortable no-deal coalition.
EVEN TAKING THE NUMBERS FROM THE MOST FAVOURABLE POLL FOR YOUR ARGUMENT, there’s basically no permutation that gets us anywhere for indy, and almost all of them still result in Brexit majorities.
The only one where it’s even *possible* to have a Lab/SNP coalition where we get both a new EU ref and a new indyref is an election where Labour start in the lead and there’s no, or next to no, tactical voting at all. And that, I’m afraid, is a madman’s fantasy.
(Even before you account for things like the Kinnock Factor.)
You’re trying to apply two-party logic to a five-party election. It doesn’t work.
Aye, let’s have ah Friday night rammy like hehe
May one just contribute fuck and cunt… in that order, thx
People Over Perth ra morra People
Let’s go POP!
Wings Over Scotland is fucking excellent!
After the actions of the SNP in Westminster this week, namely, taking over the order paper, thus blocking a no deal Brexit and forcing the UK government into accepting whatever terms we are given by the EU, because we are not prepared to walk away without a deal, killing our bargaining power, effectively humiliates the UK government but more importantly, its people, making them and us, permanent ignominious supplicants. If I were the English, I’d remember this treachery, and come independence say to us, ”You betrayed us at a critical juncture in our nations history when the chips were down” . . .If you think we’re ready to do a deal with you, forget it”, . . . ”You are at the back of the queue.” The SNP forgets, that one third of I’ts voters voted to leave the EU. Any Scottish Nationalist Party that wants to take us back in, will never get my vote!
I don’t agree that Labour would make an agreement with the LibDems. The LibDems are tories and would’nt agree to major aspects of Labour’s domestic agenda.
The polling figures are biased because of the effect of the polemical right wing media. Once into an election campaign and equal media access is mandatory I think the Labour vote will increase as in 2017.
Interesting article.
Two things – both Pete wishart and John swinney will be speaking at auob Perth tomorrow. In Aberdeen all of the snp approached blanked the rally. Maybe it’s only due to an impending election. If it is (and nothing to do with using the mandate before 2921) then they’re unwise – as they must know that at least half those voting snp will switch to the greens and maybe wings come 2021. That’s a certainty.
Some interesting conversations about our EU extending and allowing so-called Brexit, indefinitely like
Interesting…
Would make the hard English Nationalists go crazy hehe
But can we wait that long?
Where is the end?
Independent Scotland is the start
Slightly O/T
Read into this what you want:
Airbus informed ex-pat internals this week that they are now able to register to a job swap scheme. Meaning EU personnel in UK can swap with UK personnel in EU doing similar functions.
Actions speak louder than politicians rhetoric.
======
p.s. I think Stu has every right to shake the apple-cart but I still have faith in the SNP. I don’t have faith in the spook infested Scottish government.
Pundits on here citing claim of right, EU, UN and human rights being on our side need to seriously consider what happened to Catalonia. Not the referendum but the aftermath. This is the reality.
EU, UN directives etc are not worth the paper they are written on. Courts wash their hands. Political direction and perceived advantage of individual States trumphs all. The evidence is laid out in front of us if we care to see it.
Lets try to see the big picture and not let brexit cloud everything.
Rev
Here’s the link for the latest poll which put Tories and Labour on 28% each and predicts the Brexit Party support doubles if an election is held after Oct 31st.
An ICM poll suggests that support for the Brexit party would double from 9 per cent to 18 per cent if an election takes place after Halloween.
The poll, commissioned by Represent Us — which is pushing for a second Brexit referendum — found the Conservatives’ lead over Labour would evaporate in those circumstances.
The ICM poll suggests the Tories would beat Labour by 37 per cent against 30 per cent in an October election, while the two parties would be neck and neck on 28 per cent in a November poll.
link to ft.com
There are no tables of the full poll that I can find yet so not much use as yet to plug into electoral calculus. One a final point, it’s all speculation of course but the support of the Lib Dems alone might not be enough to form a government.
The SNP with 50+ seats after another election could make all the difference and it may take 3 or more parties to oppose the Tories and form a government. There is simply no way I could see under any circumstances the Lib Dems supporting a no deal Tory party unless they agreed to a second EU referendum.
Yip. Yet another wings article which nails things. Including the utter charde from the SNP.
We voted them in to get us independence, not to prevent England doing what it actually voted for (brexit).
The SNP have become consumed into the madness of westminster, to the extent that they will most likely walk away with nothing, regardless of what happens. It is like they do not even grasp the very basics of political strategy.
I’m sure, however, as we are often told by some on here, any day now, Nicola Sturgeon will reveal her ‘masterplan’, that she has been keeping top secret since 2016. Any day soon..
All talk, no action.
Aye, right.
That’s me finished with Wings Over Scotland. Good bye
One further point, also similarly made by others.
There is no evidence of a huge move for indy in Scotland currently. The direction of travel is in the right direction though.
This is hugely frustrating BUT when people do shift they are also equally slow/reluctant to move back. Extrapolate by decade and we will be independent within 20 years max, assuming the trend continues.
The clusterfuck of the dysfunctional UK might just upset this SLOOOOOW trend though. Based on these personal reflections I think the SNP is doing OK despite clear tactical errors on their part.
There must be a general election due…
Gotta confirmament thru da post, did U?
Hopeless times calls for happy wines
Ahm on the bus
No. 38 like
I prefer it when we are working together instead of throwing rocks. This article reminds me of the Greens telling me the right way to go.
I think the opposition parties have a good plan and having Boris forced into a corner is a vast improvement on the Maybot/DUP command.
The SNP delay is frustrating but I still have faith in Nicola and I will trust her judgement.
On this one I disagree Rev ( I’m sure you don’t care :-). )
er,when did a politician not lie or spin the truth, nothing new here, gosh you just realise this now
Mystic meg can’t predict the future.
In a close margin it is always wrong. Polls can be wrong. Used to try and influence the results. Illegal gerrymandering and money fraudsters.
Is the 38 the one from Misery to Happiness Cactus?
I thought it was the 42 🙂
Half moon, full sun
It’s all happening
What you got to say Wingers like?
Aye LOVE Scotland
Totally out of order
You betcha defo, passing thru Shawlands Cross ra now
The James Tassie bar has Saltires frae the ootside
Is there a sporting game on today or ra morra?
The LibDem condemns were responsible for the mess in the first place.
Cameron, Brown and Clegg now all gone. Johnston will be next.
Rev. Stuart Campbell @ 18:26,
What I’m surprised at is why you care so much, Stu. (Ignoring your current place of residence.) Whatever the result of a likely UKGE, it will be an almighty guddle as far as we can tell. It will likely solve nothing, neither re Brexit nor the revived power struggle between the HoC and the Executive. It could even result in an even more reactonary English supremacist regime in London.
Now I don’t wish any of that on anybody, not on us nor on our English cousins. But what the unavoidable UKGE will almost certainly achieve is to demonstrate conclusively to everyone and their dog, irrespective of political allegiance, that the SNP has the full support of the Scottish electorate. Thereby turning to finely-powdered dust all the nonsense spouted by the BritNat proxies and their ever-ready media collaborators over the last 3 years.
That’s enough. In addition we just need people in Scotland to finally realise and accept that there will be no “cavalry to the rescue” over Brexit, and there is no likely London regime, be it led by Johnson or Corbyn, which will make an iota of difference to that.
How it unwinds after that no-one can tell, but that combination will break this damned Union. Putting all our expectaion on a flawed UKGE alone will certainly not achieve it, but it will be the beginning of the end.
“Now I don’t wish any of that on anybody, not on us nor on our English cousins. But what the unavoidable UKGE will almost certainly achieve is to demonstrate conclusively to everyone and their dog, irrespective of political allegiance, that the SNP has the full support of the Scottish electorate.”
They’re currently polling around 40-42%. That’s not even half of the Scottish electorate. Most of the other half HATES them.
Here’s a prediction but more a premonition Ken500
Tomorrow’s Cairnstoon…
May feature Boris ‘doon a ditch…’
But will he be as deid as ah dodo?!
Apologies if this has been covered already.
The next 4 weeks are pivotal.
If the rebel alliance manage to prevent Boris achieving brexit on the 31st October, then Boris will have failed in his one and only policy.
Conversely, if the PM succeeds, and the U.K. Leaves the EU, then the SNP will have failed to have prevented Scotland being dragged out against its will.
Whoever wins the Westminster election afterwards, will de-fang Holyrood, some people on here will be (more?) despondent, and it may well, genuinely, be generations before Scotland will have another opportunity for independence.
High stakes indeed.
I just hope the SNP have a foolproof plan to secure (instant) independence before the 31st, in case the loose confederation of cross party interests fails to stop the default position of no deal.
“I just hope the SNP have a foolproof plan to secure (instant) independence before the 31st, in case the loose confederation of cross party interests fails to stop the default position of no deal.”
SPOILER: they don’t.
Think that it’s possible that Boris could be co-partner in the Brexit party for the election?
Maybe they had a plan.
Anyhoo!
Footie… 🙁
I have so many people in your comments having so many different opinions and guesses.
The Treaty of Union of the Scottish Parliament and the English Parliament was signed by both COUNTRIES. Any one of them has the RIGHT to REPEAL the said Treaty. There is no legality involved.
“ the Rev stu @ 0545”. who says that BJ will even be leading the Tory party into a Nov election? ?
Cactus, Wings over Scotland is fuckin mental.
So is the situation we find ourselves in.
I dont know if Nicola is being a tactical genius, or a damn fool.
I do know if we brexit next month and sre planning on doing anything about it well need these.
link to gofundme.com
No idea.
I’d speculate the long game after 2014 was the SNP’s plan.
Brexit is just something bounced into their lap, This would have necessitated a quick rethink of strategy, as it gave a strong mandate for a “change of circumstances” referendum call earlier than planned.
Bearing in mind, that Brexit is not the only mandate for a new referendum and also, that had A50 never been triggered and an EU ref never held, Independence would still ostensibly have been the SNP’s aim.
Im suggesting that it has been if anything, a distraction and it bounced ‘policy on the fly’. But if we are to talk of mandates and claims of right and sovereignty; then the EU ref handed the Scottish government a mandate to stop Scotland being taken out of the EU. Which was the greater of the two ‘mandates’? A new Independence referendum or ‘Stop Brexit’?
I’d argue it was ‘Stop Brexit. Greater numbers voted, proportionally, against exiting the EU than Polls showed would support Indy. Initially the SNP could naively assume there would be some sort of ‘Soft Brexit’ which wouldn’t be totally economically damaging to Scotland; in which case it could be just generally opposed as a vote gathering campaign. Suddenly, post the snap GE, it turned into a swiftly moving realisation of a probable hard Brexit and the economic woes to Scotland that would entail. Another reason ‘Stop Brexit’ took precedence.
Yes, successfully stopping it for the Scottish electorate, would indeed remove the strong mandate for the second Indyref they found in their lap, but it’s not the only mandate. Again, if the EU ref had never occurred, the SNP would still be trying to find a way to increase the Indy vote and win Scotland her Independence regardless.
The fact that the EU ref bounced a sudden opportunity their way is mere happenstance. There were then suddenly two factions, those who wished to go quickly on a second Indyref opportunity afforded and those who believed in the “Long game”.
Where we are presently is still an opportunity. It enables the SNP to utilise Brexit and its opposing stance, to strengthen the argument and support for Independence. The SNP are still in a position of trying to convince Scotland that Independence is the only way to save it, what else can they do?
Well, very little, they can try and agitate a GE this year giving them the possibility (as I mentioned previously) of a Winter of Discontent and Spring Indyref. We could still nominally be within the aegis of the EU at that point – a transitional zone if you will. The EU themselves may back the position to find out which way a referendum swings before the door finally slams shut.
Or if not a GE, continue agitating through Courts to raise the constitutional issues, whether they even truly believe it has any chance of success, it keeps the issues live. It also increases the chance of unilateral dialogue with the EU; playing the impotency of a non-functioning, unelected non-government at Westminster, against the only currently stable, functioning government in the UK – Scotland (apologies to Wales)
In fact this seems to me to be a fair assesment of what they are actually doing. It is of no consequence whether the SNP are backing coalitions one minute, GE’s the next, or driving court cases – so long as Scotland and her democratic and constitutional deficits, are kept front and centre of the Scottish electorate.
As ever, if we believe Independence to be inevitable and the result of a “process”, then Brexit and being removed from the EU is merely a bump in the road. Until the fates decide, all the SNP can do is be agitators. If that means changing policies on the fly, so be it.
Every extra day wins over those disillusioned with the perfidious actions of Westminster and the Union, wins minds and brings support for Independence. Even if it risks alienating sections of the Independence support.
Ultimately that strategy may mean going to the people of Scotland out to 2021 and saying ” We did what you asked, stopped Brexit before pushing an Indy referendum – now back Independence, or be impotent slaves to fortune and further depravations by that den of rogues”
Is that risky? Hell yes. People who didn’t want Brexit, but were cool on Indy may go back to sleep, job done. Indy Brexiteers might be furious, but the world is upside down, everyone is frustrated, someone is always going to be outraged, everything is risky.
But just maybe, the original long game might just bring enough of Scotland to realise Indy is the only way – be damned to Westminster and their perfidy.
Oh well, Scotland-Russia tonight – it’s the hope that kills ye eh?
North Chiel
I don’t think he was serious about the ditch thing.
UKIP has only ever won 1 seat after a by election. In the 2017 election UKIP got 600,000 votes and did not win any seats,
Brexit exit Party?
@William Purves 7:17pm
Damn right.
Tartanpigsy@7.14
You are wasting your time on this site , only a handful of people have donated , try Scotgoespop ! .
Democracy can only function properly i.e. fairly and proportionately in a Sovereign State which has separated powers and a written constitution.
Those on here that do not understand that need only look at the tin pot ‘democracy’across the water. set up nearly one hundred years ago..the ‘northern Irish province’. An elective dictatorship of protestant ascendancy and oppression set up the ‘Mother(fucker’) of Parliaments : Westminster.. One which eventually tore it self apart and led to the Good Friday Agreement being imposed by the International community to resolve UK/English colonial gerrymandering.
The last three years of bread and circuses conducted by Anglo American neo liberal billionaire consortium of new world zealots acted out by their tory/brexit English elite puppets has always been ‘No Deal’
With no written Constitution; a devious criminal gang of Etonian socipaths and a fraudulent Crown in Parliament rubber stamp to sanction arcane and made up ‘procedures’, Boris the modern version of the ‘wisest fool in Christendom’. This bumbling chancer is a glove puppet who is being controlled and directed. And he is up against a disparate group of charlatans who are a ragbag of losers, even bigger than he .
Unfortunately, the SNP are amongst this scurvy crew. Trying to change the English nascent national movement away from what they want: No Deal and out of Europe. Poor old Boris will be and is portrayed as the victim of these ‘tra itors’. And the SNP may win most seats and nearly the majority of votes in some distant GE ( which they did already in 2015 and did SFA with it). But make no mistake, the English will not forgive or forget our interference in this Brexit Farrageo, but as throughout history punish us, the cash cow, who they hate with a vicious jealous entitlement.
BBC closing down in a disgraceful coup de grace of suppression of free speech, the ‘media Show’ without any warning; the organised loyalist impending continuation of violence on the Glasgow streets, dogwhistled up by the loathsome Annie Wells; the movement of troops and English police into Scotland; refusal to allow Scottish civil servants the right to consult with EU opposite numbers, and the almost certain castration of our Parliament; followed by refusal to recognise the Claim of Right and the mandate for Indy, lead to what? A Catalonian scenario. Why? because we have no asserted sovereignty via a true ‘gold standard’ of International judicial recognition.All Alyn Smith’s chums keeping the ‘lights on’ will mean fuckall in the end.
We are and will remain a British region up and until the 31st of October. The difference is that after that date we are sacrificial goats to be sacrificed on the altar of English Supremacy
Have we now started the bickering among ourselves?
FFS Stuart why did you start attacking the SNP ?
@North chiel
Who can say if Corbyn would be leading the Labour party in a Nov election? I wouldn’t bet on that either.
Robert Louis says:
6 September, 2019 at 6:55 pm
“We voted them in to get us independence, not to prevent England doing what it actually voted for (brexit)”
Speak for yourself. I most certainly did not vote for the SNP to allow a handful of unprincipled and unscrupulous England MP puppets whose strings are being moved by self-serving VIP taxdodgers and USA corporations’ interests, to force brexit on us and to steal my children’s EU citizenship rights and their NHS.
Why is it that you think it is more important for “England” to get what it voted for than for Scotland to get what it voted for and for our children to get what they deserve? What makes you even consider for a fraction of a second that England’s views are more important than those of Scotland in this political union of equals?
What kind of farce is this where we are claiming to push to become independent but first we, according to you and all those who are quite happy to see Scotland forced by our equal partner out of the union against our will and without our consent, claiming that this is good for independence, must swallow the hard pill of defeat in somebody else’s battle and pretend that we are happy to not have any authority in this political union and simply lay back and let England run all over us?
How can we expect anybody in the world stage to respect Scotland’s standing in the world as an independent state when we cannot even assert our own fckng status in this union because we are expected to be happy and actually demanded by some in our own side, it seems, to let our neighbour walk all over us? I find it totally outrageous and frankly incredibly hypocritical and nonsensical that anybody can claim to strongly support independence while castigating our democratically elected government for fighting for what we voted for while demanding for us to let a rogue government elected by our partner do their worst.
Imagine you find yourself in a snowed down mountain. Would you shoot the only horse left, the only one that will take you down simply because you deem that he walks too slowly on the snow? What would you do then, lay on your back and freeze to death or rather walk yourself down even when you will do it even more slowly that the horse? Because, quite frankly, from where I am standing that is how this continuous bombardment of the SNP actually comes across.
Sorry, I but I refuse to swallow the servitude pill. In fact, I will spit back that pill in the face of whoever dares to insist I have to take it and whoever dares to claim that the way to get independence for Scotland is to simply resign ourselves to give England what it wants first, never mind how toxic that is for us.
Hell no, no and one thousand times no. If England wants to leave the EU then it will have to grow the balls to dissolve the union first. This is not England’s union. This is the union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England. If England’s legitimate representatives do not like to see Scotland asserting itself and taking its rightful place of command in this political union they can take a hike, grow the balls to run a referendum in the Kingdom of England, dissolve the union and leave. If England does not take orders from Scotland, Scotland does not take orders from England.
Brexit is not going to bring us independence. The only way we are going to get independence is by forcing those who are behind brexit to realise that the only way they are going to achieve their brexit is by dissolving the union first and letting Scotland go its own way. Only when the KIngdom of England sees that the political bother of keeping us in this political union surpasses the benefits of our revenues and assets, the UK will be dissolved.
So hell yes, go SNP. Go and stop the ViP taxdodgers’ brexit right on its tracks, take the wheels out of their brexit and push for the EU to demand implementation of the VIP tax avoidance laws in the UK in exchange for an extension or an agreement. Make them wail. Because full EU membership is what Scotland gave a mandate for, not for being used, yet again, as a stepping stone by our neighbour to get where it wants to go, only to then sht on us as a reward for not being capable to stand for ourselves.
“So hell yes, go SNP. Go and stop the ViP taxdodgers’ brexit right on its tracks, take the wheels out of their brexit and push for the EU to demand implementation of the VIP tax avoidance laws in the UK in exchange for an extension or an agreement. Make them wail. Because full EU membership is what Scotland gave a mandate for, not for being used, yet again, as a stepping stone by our neighbour to get where it wants to go, only to then sht on us as a reward for not being capable to stand for ourselves.”
“…and fuck any chance of independence in our lifetimes!”
Wings. Plot. Lost.
You owe the beacon of truth that is our hard working independence focused First Minister an apology.
The United Kingdom is a fucking cunt (are there any stronger words?)
We don’t and can’t control it, like ever
Aye LOVE swearing Yes!
Fucking 42 for you
@Maria F
I’d clap that post but not sure if that’s allowed 🙂 Well said.
I despair. So many regulars on this site (having read and digested what the Rev has said) still don’t get it. How on earth do they expect your average voter to make sense of it all?
‘Nicola Sturgeon is lying about wanting to stop a no-deal Brexit – she just wants to stop Brexit full stop’
A no-deal Brexit is a Brexit therefore she wants to stop it. How does that make her a liar?
She is being consistent with the Scotland’s Place in Europe document produced in 2016
1st choice: UK remains in EU
2nd choice: UK remains in Single Market
3rd choice: Scotland remains in Single Market
If non of these are possible, its independence.
Nigel Farage could possibly be the next English prime minister, its the English population that wants brexit you could see that in the Europe elections, if there’s a general election conservative and labour are going to suffer big losses boosting the brexit party’s chances of putting Farage into no 10.
Apparently BoJo yearns to believe in the Loch Ness Monster.
No doubt this is an orchestrated and pathetic attempt at endearing himself with “the Scotch folks”.
His party’s policies are monstrous so he could do us all a favour and throw himself in the loch, thus we’d be free of him, and he’d satisfy his yearnings, albeit that he himself would actually be the Loch Ness Monster.
That said, the fucker is so toxic he’d probably pollute our fine Scottish waters…
Cheers to the folks that added some input to my request earlier, keep it coming over on Off Topic so as not pollute main thread.
I can’ see the HoC voting for May’s Withdrawal Agreement because it locks UK into the customs union forever.
The PM’s plan isn’t bad – it’s atrocious – Martin Howe QC is a leading barrister in EU law
link to archive.fo
@Rev. Stuart Campbell
You don’t like it much when people disagree with you do you?
Ach well it used to be worthwhile and interesting posting and reading comments on Wings. Now not so much, how you can possibly believe that calling the FM “a liar” is going to help us achieve Independence is beyond me.
That’s the Daily Mails job to slag off the FM and the SNP so it’s surprising that you should instead take up that mantle, and especially so to do it now. Your job we were told was to expose that.
How about telling readers specifically what she said when she lied? This is your claims.
“Nicola Sturgeon is lying about wanting to stop a no-deal Brexit – she just wants to stop Brexit full stop.”
That’s your opinion but the facts don’t back that up, The facts can be found in the paper from Dec 2016 “Scotland’s Place In Europe” where a compromise is proposed.
“Unfortunately, this also means she’s lying about having any real intention of holding a second independence referendum before 2021”
Again that’s just your opinion and until we reach 2021 you have no evidence of Nicola Sturgeon lying since she clearly hasn’t. This was a shit article Rev and I’ll bet even you know it!
“ Great post Maria @0738 pm “ I find it totally outrageous and frankly incredibly hypocritical, and nonsensical that anybody can claim to strongly support independence , whilst castigating our democratically elected government for fighting what we voted for while demanding for us to let a rogue government elected by our partner do their worst” .
Couldn’t agree more Maria and thanks for one of the best posts I have ever read on this blog.
Spot on as usual, Stu. And all these folk throwing their toys out the pram know it and all.
The SNP have failed utterly. What has the party DONE with the last three years? The square root of hee-haw!! Their whole squandered existence seems predicated on pointing out how bad the Tories are, how stupid Labour are, how conniving the LibDems are (and in Holyrood, alienating whole swathes of female indy voters by trying to railroad through their disgusting ‘gender’ laws and forcing schoolgirls to share toilets with boys – WT actual F??).
I tramped round doors for that party in the last election, and donated money to all their indy fundraisers – so I do rather feel like I’ve been taken for a ride. We were promised a say on Brexit – a choice of either Scottish indy or losing our EU citizenship in a UK Brexit. And they’ve done NOTHING to honour that pledge they made to their voters.
So since they’ve done nothing to protect my EU citizenship I’m stockpiling tins for the No Deal car crash, and will be looking to take myself and my professional qualifications overseas at the first opportunity afterwards. To quote the SNP MEP Alyn Smith (who’s incidentally just revealed he’ll be standing as a GE candidate in Stirling at the next election – the SNP are now officially winding up their EU operations!), I imagine some of the EU member states might “ca’canny” and take their pick of the high-tax-paying UK professional classes from the Brexit bargain bin and offer up easy visas. Since we’ll have no freedom of movement there will be no other way off this godforsaken island.
I suggest the rest of you get stockpiling too and start looking for Irish grandparents or easily obtainable foreign work visas. Because Scottish indy is going absolutely nowhere fast, and the UK’s engineered destination as a shock-doctrined Airstrip One is almost complete.
I think it would require Johnson’s resignation as PM and ALSO the resignation of the FULL cabinet.
I’m making an assumption that the legislation drafted to force the government to submit the pre-drafted letter does not require either Johnson by name or any PM to personally submit the letter either in person or via proxy. I have to assume it says ‘the government’ must submit the letter. Without ANY cabinet or PM then, as far as I can tell, there are none who can be compelled to submit this letter.
It’s not about whether he can get around this, I think it’s more about HOW FAR he’s willing to go to get his aim. If such a mass resignation occurred then who would re-appoint anyone? The opposition groups could get control of the order book, submt a confidence vote and win it but STILL there would be a period of two weeks for ‘the government’ to secure a vote of confidence in themselves.
IF such a thing occurred we would be utterly rudderless for at least two weeks, maybe more if Swinson continued to fail to support Corbyn, could be a GE called by the opposition groups (if Tory MPs agreed) but that would add ANOTHER six weeks. The ONLY way through this way of doing things would be if the Queen intervened to ask someone to step in and form some kind of emergency government to submit the letter, call an election and step into ministerial roles (as they continue even in suspensions)in the meantime (probably six to eight weeks)
Johnson is anti democratic by proroguing parliament and lying to get it, opposition parties have prevented debate in the Lords by introducing a guillotine and so no one comes out of this smelling or roses.
The take away from all of this should be that a written constitution is a necessity and conventions MUST be replaced by RULES.
Above all, Scotland needs OUT, sooner rather than later…
I suppose some people just cant handle a robust debate.
Dave McEwan Hill – if you’re serious, then you’re a big fucking baby.
Time for sweeping generalisation here…but the gist of this is close to how things really are.
The core of the SNP leadership are not Scottish Nationalists, more Devo-Maxalists, and it has been so for a considerable time!
They are Socialists who Identify themselves as Scottish!
I repeat –
They are Socialists who Identify themselves as Scottish therefore they are at odds with the Britnat Labour Socialists, who would rather endure a thousand year Tory Reich and/or sell-out most or all of their “principles” in order to gain power at Westminster for their London comrade-bosses – than participate in the government of an independent Scotland.
But also at odds with Scottish Nationalists who identify themselves as socialist … which is why one of their first tasks on taking control of the SNP, was to bind, gag and purge any of that ilk who put their head above the parapet.
The main thing about ideologues is that they must stick to the script and their script has always been “INDEPENDENCE IN EUROPE”, to them, the two are inseparable.
You can leave the UK – Without leaving the UK!
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single baby-step and baby-steps are all they will ever take unless they are pushed.
That is why they are comfortable linking arms with Unionists, adopting all the Project Fear rhetoric, which they know they will have to eschew, should they find themselves arguing for Scottish independence.
They really do think they NEED the UK to remain in the EU in order for Scotland to leave the UK, If it was otherwise they would have made support for scuppering a no deal Brexit, conditional on the delivery of Indyref2 and the HoL would be debating it right now.
Baby-steps anyone?
I disagree with this article. I had written a whole spiel here but I think quoting Sun Tzu works better:
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
Mind you, by that logic Richard Leonard is the next FM…
War gaming involves looking at all the possible outcomes and scenarios in a competition or battle. It is part and parcel of modern political strategy.
Highlighting possible outcomes is not the same as wanting them to happen.Some of the reactions here are akin to hysteria – ‘you can’t say THAT – what if it happens?’
We saw that the FM changed her mind within a couple of days when different scenarios were put to her, scenarios she hadn’t thought of.
Why hadn’t they occurred to her, did she expect BoJo and Co to play by the rules? Who is advising her?
It’s a temporary warm feeling to be proven right in your doomsday predictions but if you have been shouting them for 2 or 3 years and still no one seems to have taken them on board your levels of frustration must be unbearable. I believe that is what the Rev is demonstrating.
We all hope the SNP have gamed this right but the Brexit Party are waiting to leap in after the 31st of October to say BoJo broke his promise, only we can deliver Brexit. The LibDems are mopping up sappy Better Together Remainers in Scotland.They are creating and spreading rumours of SNP collusion with the Tories which were addressed on MSM. They should never be trusted.
Whether these votes translate into seats, time will tell but those who voted for Brexit are becoming more and more and angry – just the way we would be if Independence was thwarted.
The lessons to be learned are mounting up. We could have given up on stopping Brexit after the revoke A50 vote went against us. I believe that was a good time to walk away but the SNP seem quite giddy on being involved in the machinations of political jiggery pokery.
So at what point do we say enough is enough?
Meanwhile Johnston could resign rather than be compelled to go cap in hand to the EU. And as the Rev has indicated that is another ball game altogether.
The problem is that we have been keeping our powder dry for 3 years. Boredom and frustration is leading to a few itchy trigger fingers and people taking pot shots at their own side.
I’m hoping that once the starting gun is fired we will all be too busy fighting for Indy to remember all this bickering. If not then we may as well take up bridge or fly fishing or something because we will be wasting our time.
@Rev. Stuart Campbell
Is there a list of dubious words/phrases that get a comment diverted into the sin-bin?
Would folk please calm down a bit, what’s the point of losing the plot over the Rev’s informative post is he not entitled to his opinion as well?
Nothing is set in stone just yet, lets not fall apart, but rather rise up to this robust discussion. Storming off in a huff helps no one but other side.
Remember the Rev helped us get here in the first place, if it wasn’t for his blog we’d still be in the dark.
Although most folk in here (including myself) hope the Rev is utterly wrong with regards to Sturgeons action/plan. We must also accept that he could be right. Either way we must hold the line and see this out.
Well said, Breeks at 5.14 pm.
Scotland voted to remain in the EU and not by a small margin. The SNP should never have offered to compromise by settling for a soft Brexit or anything else. They should have asserted our sovereignty and right to self determination.
And where has all this being nice and reasonable got us? Nowhere. Does anybody think the people of England will thank the SNP for keeping them in the EU if they do succeed?
Dave McEwan Hill
Sincerely: Thank you for your years of campaigning for Scottish independence. I hope you never give up that fight till independence is won.
Goodbye Dave.
But, if you change your mind, you know where to find us.
Aw ra best.
Maria F 7.38pm
Excellent post.
@Republicofscotland
We all have opinions, but if that opinion includes accusing someone of lying then it might leave you exposed to retaliation from the person you accuse of lying.
You could be requested to produce evidence of their lying if they believe their reputation may have been damaged because of your opinion that they have lied.
If you can’t produce that evidence, then the least they might be looking for is that you make an apology to that person for accusing them of lying without evidence.
Mind you it could always be found to be fair comment because you believed that what you said was right even though it wasn’t.
“Mind you it could always be found to be fair comment because you believed that what you said was right even though it wasn’t.”
Disagree and argue all you want, but trolling just to be a dick won’t cut it here. Watch yourself.
I think that SinU will be looking at these comments with some thoughts of satisfaction/comfort.
Better be aware of disruptive infiltration.
Fucksake
What next?
Eat The Rich??
Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
6 September, 2019 at 7:50 pm
“…and fuck any chance of independence in our lifetimes!”
With all due respect, Rev, that will be your opinion. If that is okay with you, I rather stick to mine, which is that we will not get that independence until those in control of the kingdom of England decide we should. Why? Because there is still far too much of interest in Scotland for those in control of the Kingdom of England, not only economically, but also geopolitically.
Moreover, I will even dare to show the audacity of saying that I personally think that we most certainly will not deserve that independence if we are so spineless that we rather succumb to accepting that the vote of the people of Scotland counts less than that of the people of the Kingdom of England in this political union than standing up for ourselves. At some point Scotland has to learn to say no. I think this is as good time as any other to start using the word “NO”.
Sorry Rev. It is a question of pride and total refusal to accept that Scotland is the lesser of two equal partners when it is in fact the one that brings more revenues in natural resources to this union and the one that wastes the less.
I guess that we will have to agree to disagree on the way we perceive how independence will be achieved. However, even with such disagreement I will still not hesitate to give my vote to your party should you run in the list vote in 2021 and we are still in this union.
I guess by then we will know who was right.
We need flags, lot’s of Scottish Salitires, we need more
We need…
This is obviously a darkly depressing day. But I don’t go along with all the bleak conclusions. Wings is a wonderful resource for the independence movement. Your focus on facts are valuable, precise and forensic and I am a long-time supporter. Now I fear that the reverberations of all the Brexit nonsense and the lack of progress on moving towards independence are undermining that brilliant focus, Rev.
We know Boris is a liar, we know Trump is a liar (and someone in the US is counting his lies every day), we know that politicians have often warped agendas and live in a bubble which is far removed from people on the streets. And we are in a horrendous political situation, tied to a Union which is trashing everything in sight.
What matters to most Wings followers is the possibility of breaking loose from this. It seems imperative. But it’s not a foregone conclusion that the population of Scotland will vote for it. There are many whose careers, financial interests, origins (often English, sometimes Northern Irish), and sheer fright lead them to believe that it shouldn’t happen. We live in a selfish age. Plus there are those who don’t think, reflect or take personal responsibility and they fear having to do that in a small independent country. And there are many who think that these aberrations will pass, despite all evidence to the contrary.
So feeling that things aren’t moving, a lot of people are turning on the SNP. Jim Sillars, whose late wife was an SNP stalwart; Kenny MacAskill who was Justice Minister and found consensus hard to forge, journalists who need a new theme. Bloggers, factions. The First Minister stands accused of not making independence her total focus, and using Brexit to further it. But think on. What happens if the SNP were to lie back and let it happen, and then not achieve a positive outcome in indyref2? The First Minister has rightly said she is elected to govern in Scotland for all citizens. She would not be perceived as a competent leader of this country if she did otherwise. That’s what will deliver independence. That, and a willingness to hold on, stick together, and recognise that the SNP are at present our best hope for getting out of this mess. Not splintering, infighting. And a good international reputation is also useful.
I agree with Gavin Alexander at 2.08pm
Republicofscotland 20:43 well said, two things that have struck me, the amount of long term posters like dmh who have gone off in the huff and the amount of folk I cannot recall posting before having a go at the Rev. One thing is for sure there is no better Political Analyst in the UK than Stu. Therefore if he says something its worth listening to whether you agree to it or not. The fact of the matter is that Parliament is prologued at latest thursday next week and does not sit again until mid October where the Queens speech will need to be heard and debated. So as the Rev says, what happens if Boris refuses to request an extension to Article 50? He just needs to play them along for a couple of days then resign as PM and there would be no time to have an election before Oct 31 Its also not a given that the EU will grant an extension, messages coming out of Finland who hold the EU Presidency just now the other day said that there was not a consensus for agreeing to the article 50 extension. I cannot understand what the rebel alliance are playing at stating that they will not try for an election until November , we will be out by then. Being kind to them I think they know they will lose and Labour dont want the poisoned Chalice of dealing with the aftermath of a no deal brexit, Best to let Boris take the heat for a few weeks and then they might have a chance. Where this leaves Indyref2 I have no idea, hopefully the SNP have a plan , one thing for sure, its going to be an interesting SNP conference in Aberdeen mid October, cant wait 🙂
Eat ra rich, aye fuck indeed
Fuck these fuckers
Are they cunts?
It is good to be normal
NB FUCK THEM FUCKERS!
can’ = can’t in above post.
BTW it is quite logical for Nicola Sturgeon to want to stop a no deal BREXIT and to stop BREXIT at the same time. No lie needed.
They are
Don’t look away
Stay central.
Glasgow, that is
Rev Stu is cunting excellent…
Let that be known, right fucking NOW
Fuck the doubters
Yer dicks
Robert P is the word
Petra is gone… Good
Aweright Rab P?
He’s ma buddy