The beginning of the twist
Today is – thanks be to God and all that is holy – the last day of the worst general election in recorded human history, and indeed perhaps the worst thing of any kind to have happened in the UK since the Blitz.
In less than 24 hours many of us will go out to vote. But then what?
Last night’s MRP poll still suggested a Tory majority, but within the margin of error of a hung parliament. Only a fool would at this point wager a large amount of money on the outcome, and the most horrendous possibility of all is that the result is SO inconclusive no party or group of parties can form a workable administration and we have to go through all this again in February or March.
Our blood runs ice-cold at the thought, readers.
But what of the more decisive conclusions there could be? Let’s quickly run through the four plausible ones (ie not including a Labour majority), in no particular order.
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SCENARIO A
1. The election delivers a hung parliament, but Labour and SNP votes alone are not enough for a majority – the Lib Dems are also required. The Lib Dems refuse to countenance granting a second indyref in return for a second EU referendum.
2. Labour bring forward the second EU referendum anyway and dare the SNP to vote it down. The SNP, having campaigned almost exclusively as the STOP BREXIT party, cannot do so, and a new Brexit vote goes ahead in the summer of 2020 after Labour spend a few months negotiating a new withdrawal deal with the EU (which turns out a lot like Theresa May and Boris Johnson’s deals).
3. The second EU referendum delivers a Remain vote. Scotland heaves a huge sigh of relief. After 11 exhausting political campaigns (two EU elections, two EU referendums, two council elections, one Holyrood election, three UK general elections and the small matter of a three-year-long independence referendum) in just seven years, nobody wants any more politics, especially constitutional politics.
4. A second formal S30 request is refused and the SNP have to choose between putting indy on the back burner for years or going to court in the knowledge that the public might react furiously at the imminent 2021 Holyrood election and throw them out of power. The smart money would be on them bottling it. Independence gets booted into the long grass until goodness knows when.
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SCENARIO B
1. The election delivers a hung parliament in which Labour and SNP votes alone do provide a majority to make Jeremy Corbyn PM. (The dramatic collapse in the Lib Dem vote since a horrified nation started actually seeing Jo Swinson makes this prospect at least slightly more credible than it was a few months ago.)
Despite a Labour rebellion, the parties manage, just barely, to pass a deal granting a second indyref, but only after a second EU referendum. The timing makes it impossible that the second indyref can happen before summer 2021.
(NB the above is an optimistic view. As with Scenario A, Labour could just refuse the S30 and dare the SNP to vote down the second EU referendum that they’ve just spent months campaigning for in a giant yellow STOP BREXIT bus.)
2. Let’s assume the SNP secure a pro-indy majority in May 2021, which is by no means certain in this scenario – the polls already put it on a knife-edge and a concerted Unionist tactical voting campaign in the light of the development could deny the new Scottish Government the power to pass legislation relating to the referendum, especially as the SNP continues to antagonise women voters and its Leave faction is enraged over Brexit. But we’ll assume they do for the sake of argument.
3. Remain wins the new Brexit referendum 53-47. Now, as with Scenario A, we’re in a situation where Scotland has been saved from Brexit and most people are happy and relieved, but are then immediately plunged into yet another bitter and prolonged political debate, which last weekend’s Panelbase poll very plausibly suggests that Yes would lose by 16 points.
4. A relieved SNP can finally relax. It has delivered a second indyref, placating its own supporters, and can’t be blamed for circumstances conspiring against victory. Power at Holyrood is secured for the foreseeable future and dozens of SNP MPs can enjoy the Westminster lifestyle for years to come on a “standing up for Scotland in the UK” ticket, completing their Animal Farm-esque transformation into Scottish Labour.
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SCENARIO C
1. We’ve assumed in Scenarios A and B that a second EU referendum would lead to a Remain vote, because all the polls say it would. But that’s not guaranteed. Nearly all of those polls are within the margin of error, so it could also very plausibly deliver another Leave vote.
2. If that happens the SNP will be well and truly hoist by their own petard. They’ve consistently said that a second indyref can’t happen until Brexit is settled, and a second Leave vote under a Labour-led government – most likely in summer/autumn 2020 – would reset the clock and start the whole Brexit process all over again, delaying any chance of a second indyref for years.
(Remember, the current three-and-a-half-year wade through treacle has just been over the withdrawal agreement. Even if Labour had negotiated that before the new vote, all the actual trade deals would still have to be done.)
3. More to the point, a second Leave vote delivered to what would again be a majority Remain parliament (but not a majority government) would open up a massive can of worms and risk an endless cycle of the British public voting to leave the EU, parliament frustrating it with arcane technical shenanigans, more elections and so on and so on and so on. We could be doing Brexit till we all die.
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SCENARIO D
1. The Tories, albeit narrowly, stumble across the finish line and secure their majority. Brexit goes ahead almost immediately on Boris Johnson’s deal.
The SNP demand a Section 30 and are flatly refused, leaving no option but a court challenge which takes many months, extending beyond the 2021 Holyrood election.
(Because they couldn’t possibly hope to retain the faith of their voters if they went into that election without having launched the challenge.)
2. The SNP win that election comfortably, bolstered by soft-No Remainers who finally realise that the UK is a busted flush and independence offers the only escape. Polling already suggests a Yes win in a second indyref, and as the catastrophe of Brexit begins to unfold while the court case is going on, support grows even higher and begins to nudge 60%.
3. Everything now hinges on the outcome of the court case. Should it find in favour of the Scottish Government, the end of the UK is all but a certainty. (Brexit already has Northern Ireland on the brink.) Should it find in favour of the UK government, Scotland is trapped in a Brexit UK forever, because no UK government will have any reason to concede a Section 30 ever again.
(Since the SNP’s policy of refusing to ever countenance any sort of deal with the Tories means that, as discussed above, Labour can just call its bluff if the SNP is ever in a kingmaking position, and dare it to block a Labour government.)
A nation will hold its breath.
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So here goes, then. Be careful what you wish for tomorrow, folks.
How to be your own worst enemy.
That’s the GE analysis we were all waiting for – nicely done Stu!
(pity it’s so bleak)
My money’s on the U.K. being a dead duck regardless of your reasonable predictions. Too many feathers have been seriously ruffled in the DUK’s constituent territories – mainly responsible by the extreme right Terror Tories. NI might beat Sco 1st in the shoot off and Wales might go after a misfire or two. Either way, I’d wager it’s games a bogey for Britannia before the next decade.
Wonderful. Meanwhile the planet burns and humanity faces the very real prospect of an extinction level event. How thoroughly depressing.
Agree with most of what you say and it’s a fraught situation.
What I would say is that if the Tories win and then leave on the terms already agreed (as far as I understand them to be, that is), then there’s no excuse for the SNP to prevaricate any longer on indyref 2.
That’s because the “red lines” have been:
i) Scotland has to be in the single market;
ii) Scotland has to be in the customs union.
It’s my understanding, although I do stand to be corrected of course, that the principles of the Withdrawal Agreement do not allow for either of these things to be the case.
We do not need to hang about till all the “i’s” and “t’s” are dotted on trade agreements etc to be able to say “we won’t be in the single market or customs union” although I fully expect unionists to lie about it; see “we have you devo max” and similar.
So, if there’s further prevarication even when it is clear we are out of single market and customs union, I’ll be very displeased.
I’ll save Stu the bother and write “prepare to be displeased, then” myself 🙂
Except if Boris gets a Tory majority he can overrule the courts via statute as Westminster is sovereign, which he could not do in a hung parliament. Especially if the SNP get under 50% in the election and the majority of Scots still back Unionist parties
If you’re going to court to test whether you need a Section 30 or you don’t, it is actually a test of much greater Constitutional principle than whether or not you actually need a Section 30.
If ruled we don’t need one, it means Westminster’s will is overruled. Scotland is not subservient by decree.
If ruled we do need one, it means Scotland’s sovereign Constitution is overruled. Scotland is subservient by decree.
A narrow definition of sovereignty is that you cannot be overruled.
The argument over a Section 30 Agreement is merely a flag of convenience for a Constitutional Test Case, to determine whether Scotland is sovereign and empowered to make a decision, or non-sovereign and subservient to the will of Westminster.
“Meanwhile the planet burns and humanity faces the very real prospect of an extinction level event.”
So you’re saying at least there’s something to hope for?
OR – the SNP refuse to do any deal with Labour without a S30 and commitment to hold Indyref2 in autumn 2020.
OR – if a Boris Johnston win, the court case doesn’t take any time at all. Why should it? Done and dusted by April.
OR scenario A but without Swinson who loses her seat. The new FibDem leader or interim leader agrees to the coalition. Possibly agreeing, almost certainly like the SNP, to a confidence and supply only deal (no ministerial cars, FibDems still burned by the last coalition).
With EVEL still on the statute books the SNP pretty much cannot go into a full coalition meaning a confidence and supply deal is the only sensible one for them.
BTW that is the minimum Sturgeon should have gotten out of the Greens after the last Holyrood election except she was so disheartened by the entirely expected loss of seats from increased support and more constituencies that she did not even apparently phone Patrick Harvie.
Such a formal agreement might have reduced the number of hacks saying Scotgov doesn’t have a majority for independence and made those that do look even more foolish and ignorant as they do now.
Muscleguy
Obviously only going off polling, but looks like Swinson will be hanging on :/ Too many Tories there willing to vote for her tactically, it would seem.
If it goes to court and loses, Technically Scotland ceases to exist as a separate country. BUT so does England, hows that going to play out?
“OR – the SNP refuse to do any deal with Labour without a S30 and commitment to hold Indyref2 in autumn 2020.
OR – if a Boris Johnston win, the court case doesn’t take any time at all. Why should it? Done and dusted by April.”
It’s way too early to be this drunk on a Wednesday.
“If it goes to court and loses, Technically Scotland ceases to exist as a separate country. BUT so does England, hows that going to play out?”
SPOILER: Everyone will not care and get on with their lives.
England is determined to and will leave Europe
In Scotland we have to convince the majority to the advantages of Indy. Simply getting 51% is not enough because we do not want to be in an Ulster situation with a substantial majority supporting the union and Westminster financing them
We have to push beyond enough!
A substantial majority have to see Westminster as the nonsense it is and this might be spreading the Westminster view of scots as: “biddable dogs that will come to heal” “a vernmious race” “end of Scottish regiments” “no Scottish history, only 1000 years of English”and all the other views managed by the BBC.
sorry for the rant
“OR scenario A but without Swinson who loses her seat. The new FibDem leader or interim leader agrees to the coalition.”
Now, that’d be an interesting one. But she looks safe.
In my opinion Scenario D looks the most likely. If Sturgeon fails to secure a second indyref next year. However I’m not privy to her plans as to whether point 3 is the only route to go.
I’ve said this many times before, you can push a Sovereign People once too often. If you don’t understand this then just cast your eyes through a History book or better still take a look at what’s happening in Hong Kong and elsewhere in the world’s current trouble spots where the will of the people have been ignored. When being nice and trying to do things by Wastmonster’s rules does not work then the gloves come off and anything can happen. It seems the English establishment can’t get it into their fat heads that they are not the best thing since sliced bread and they need blood to be spilled before they are brought to the negotiating table. Let’s not let it happen here.
What if Johnson wins a majority of 50+, within margin of error according to polls, and with most of the pro EU tories now gone (either stepped down or living as indies or with the Lib Dem’s) decides to go full tonto for a No Deal because his MP’s will back him ?
What if he turns round and says, ‘you know what, my deal does create a border down the Irish Sea and I have let the DUP down. As PM I must retain the integrity of the UK first and foremost. I therefore propose that we leave the EU immediately without a deal and preserve our nation. I understand there may be challenges under the Good Friday Agreement but there is no International Treaty that can remove our sovereignty as a nation. I will put my proposal forward to the House of Commons for a vote of approval’
I was hoping to find out what McTernan The Soothsayer was predicting
But he’s getting big bucks for looking into his dodgy crystal ball these days.
link to archive.is
Meanwhile
In the real world!
link to twitter.com
Scenario C would mean Brexit would definitely happen given 2 EU refs with leaves majorities. We all know any brexit is a disastrous scenario for Scotland & the SNP could argue at this point to leave the union.
“We all know any brexit is a disastrous scenario for Scotland & the SNP could argue at this point to leave the union.”
They could argue it all they wanted, it wouldn’t make it happen.
According to Craig Murray’s analysis a hung parliament could be on the cards.
link to craigmurray.org.uk
This could have been made much more simple had the SNP campaigned on the promise to allow the people of Scotland a choice on both Independence and leaving/ remaining in the EU. Swinson has faltered because she assumed too much of remain voters that they would subvert democracy to achieve their aims.
There is no one to represent the leavers who want Independence and by hoping to deny E&W leavers their initial decision they have created a resentful mess. Parties are always a pick and mix where you vote on the big policies that resonate most with you but if there are 2 that are in direct conflict with your wants people go to the main choice for them.
Vote SNP for constitutional CHOICE could have made life easier with no-one feeling boxed in by default.
We are assuming a S30 will even be on the cards come Friday (yes I know the FM says she will demand one before Christmas).
D most likely but honestly any of them, or some other ridiculous scenario nobody could predict, are all equally likely. What we can say for sure though is that things are going to get worse before they get better.
@Mark Russell,
An ELE would, quite frankly, be a good thing at this point.
Rermember that we’ve not got Brexit yet, so we’ve not yet got the mandate of “Scotland being dragged out of the EU ….”
Not yet anyway, but soon, I fear.
The numbers suggest D is most probable. If Johnson’s majority is so small he is hostage to the extreme wings of his party it could prove interesting. Getting shot of Scotland might start to look attractive.
There is an E.
Johnson falls short and has to speak nicely to Arlene. The bantz from that outcome would almost make it worth it. Thereafter it may play out much like D though.
Boris chickened out of being dead in a ditch.
The only happy prospect if the damage of all this days before an election ends as I suspect is the pleasant prospect of Ruth Davidson skinny dipping in Loch Ness if she keeps her word.
I suppose an asteroid strike before 7am tomorrow is out of the question ?
Just goes to show it does not matter how much you pump up the volume, if you make the wrong choices you end up compromising.
The SNP have lost their way.
How I miss Salmond.
Still voting SNP, no other choice, but everything is crossed.
On November 17th you could’ve bet on Jo Swinson to keep her seat at odds of 2/9. (SNP was 3/1)
On December 2nd she was 1/4 (SNP 11/4)
Today she’s 2/5 (SNP 15/8)
It’s clear in which direction the odds are shifting.
😉
I find your first two scenarios more than a little improbable.
Re the first one Swinson’s problem after all is not just with the SNP but also with Jeremy Corbyn himself who she has been very clear she does not consider a fit person to be PM (to be fair she says the same about Johnson – presumably she considers herself the only one fit to be PM)
The second one is more probable, but the tide, but I haven’t seen a poll throughout this whole shambles that suggest it’s possible (in passing I cannot recall one either that suggests your first scenario is likely either – most likely if there is an “arrangement” it would be between the DUP and the Tories a la May – though that would cut across Johnson’s EU deal, but you know the Tories and power – perhaps “no deal”?)
You are right about the third one – there is no guarantee that this would result in a Remain majority. IN fact, I suspect a very bloody few weeks which isnt going to help anyone much. But as above, I couldn’t see a Labour/ SNP majority/ govt (even on a supply and confidence basis) and Johnson just wouldn’t do this.
That said, I suspect the most likely of your outcomes is the last one – BoJo gets a small but workable majority, enough to get his deal through. After that things get really interesting. I dont see any reason why a Court case would take almost 18 months – yes it would go to the Court of Session (probably the Outer House in the first instance and then the Inner House) before going to the Supreme Court. But it would be arguable that the case is of such political significance that it should be heard as quickly as possible – perhaps we might recruit Gina Miller, who is very good at getting the attention of the Courts 🙂
However there is one thing that you miss. If support for independence is running at 60%+ then the politics of managing that are going to be considerable, and the pressure on WM to act likewise. Trying to kick it all into the longest of long grass is not going to address the matter. Nor will it play well with the international community – and remember all this time, the UK is trying to negotiate trade deals. I would hesitate to suggest civic disorder of some kind (from sitting down in the road to more direct actions) but nor would I rule it out.
Trying to negotiate an unkown tricky path can often lead h you up to a dead end.
This is al! now very much “In the lap of the Gods”as they say.
Nobody noticed or has everybody just forgotten or dimissed the Leprechaun in the room, because he’s about to cause mischief in the upper echelons of Inglaterra’s wee Brit house
It’s one of Britains National pastimes forgetting the Irish, but nobody’s happy there both North and South and if Johnson wins outright they’ll realise somebody should’ve thought about that
If Scotland wins this election I’m looking forward to an almost entirely different scenario
I hope the SNP win as many seats as possible on Thursday. Currently, they are still Scotland’s people’s best option.
So, everyone, I would ask you to to put aside differences or grievances and vote SNP.
Vote SNP.
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Stu, interesting speculation . I’ll wait till Friday and to see the lie of the land regarding the UK Parliament.
Then I’ll give more feedback and opinions, if I have time.
However, it’s a big assumption that a court case would take months or years.
The recent constitutional cases have mainly been decided within weeks.
What exactly would a court decide anyway? “IF” its about the right of the SNP to deliver on their 2016 manifesto, We already know a manifesto premise or promise, is not legally enforceable. It’s a convention only.
“We believe” is the words of the SNP manifesto; I doubt SNP beliefs are legally enforceable in court. I doubt the courts could force the UK state to comply with any manifesto.
Just as it’s not legally binding on the SNP (or any other party) to comply with their manifesto premises or promises.
Eg the LibDems made promises of no tuition fees in England and Wales. Then in govt with the Tories they voted FOR them. Did the LibDems get done in court? No.
If it’s a case about Scottish sovereignty and right to self-determination and how to legally dissolve the Union, then that might be a different matter. Why don’t you and the other pro-indy bloggers seek crowdfunding for such a case?
Or Scenario E – Scotland screws its self and votes Tory in all 13 of the Tory seats. England gives Johnson a huge-ish majority. Section 30 laughed out of the room. The court case on Scottish Sovereignty laughed out of the room. Scottish Britnats ecstatic!! The rest of us cry into our pillows. I reach for my anti-depressants.
There is also the small possibility that PM Johnson could loose his seat.
That would suit a lot of people behind the scenes and open a whole new dynamic, good or bad.
At this point, Brexit Groundhog Day is probably what the main parties are hoping for. SNP are not going to weather this much longer – between politics fatigue and policies pandering to minorities they’re not going to hold on to support. All scenarios are head smack off the desk depressing. We need some grown ups to sort out this mess but unless we have an alien invasion that doesn’t look likely.
Two sides can bluff. If Labour do not devolve referendum powers to Holyrood as the first Bill (because they certainly wont after two years), the SNP abstain on principle. New election as the Tories cannot form a government either.
Will Labour risk that?
I don’t think so!
“Two sides can bluff. If Labour do not devolve referendum powers to Holyrood as the first Bill (because they certainly wont after two years), the SNP abstain on principle. New election as the Tories cannot form a government either.
Will Labour risk that?
I don’t think so!”
Short answer: yes. Because they know the SNP will bottle it because they’re so pathologically terrified of another 1979 scenario. And we know they don’t have the stones for that, because if they did they’d have already done a deal with Johnson to pass Brexit in return for the S30 powers.
You forgot the obvious one of Labour calling the SNP’s bluff and the SNP pulling the plug on Labour. Highly likely if Labour start playing silly buggers.
So whatever happens Scotland will never be an independent nation. Well that’s just fucking depressing.
@ Rev Stuart Campbell – Not a drop has passed my lips. And anyway – we will soon see what actually happens.
Remain would be a bummer for the SNP because IF they hold IndyRef2 and actually WIN IndyREF2, then they’re going to have to explain to everyone exactly why they campaigned to stop Brexit because Scotland voted to remain, will of the people, yada yada yada, that they are now going to go against the wishes of the Scottish people and take them out of the EU via Scexit.
The SNP are probably the most amateurish political party that I’ve seen in my adult lifetime but despite this, I urge:
VOTE SNP.
If the current political situation is the result of some grand secret plan to destabilise the status quo and confuse voters, then I must say the plan succeeded. I am thoroughly confused.
“The SNP are probably the most amateurish political party that I’ve seen in my adult lifetime”
You don’t remain in power for twelve years by being amateurish.
It could be that the snp have taken us as far as they can. Time will tell, but something else needs to be ready to grab the baton.
There is another under scenarios b c and d.
SNP don’t bottle and go to UN and declare independence on grounds of incompetence of UK goverment.
Or even f
Wider YES Movement find there action take over get into Holyrood as a majority in 2012 and then declare independence on grounds a section 30 is useless and UK government is incompetent.
UN backs the move and 21 countries recognise Scotland as a free nation.
A terrible amateurish party that’s only based in Scotland who took on the entire British state and all its media and won and are still the largest party and in government and still popular with the highest rated leader in these islands and respected beyond
Aye the SNP are definitely duff, what a bunch of no users eh
Looking at the prominent ‘liberal’ minded remainer twitter a/c’s today… they are obsessing with their remainer ‘last chance saloon’ hope for a second EU Ref vote aka People’s vote Lol..some are carefully unveiling the master plan for removing Tories from seats darn sarf via tactical voting and are highlighting specific areas darn sarf where both Labour and Lib Dems have most chance of success if voters vote tactically….not forgetting ex Tory MP’s standing as independents as part of Remainer alliance.
Funnily enough they do not mention Scotland …after all there is only 59 seats in total Lol …13 of which is currently held by a Tory …you know those BREXITEER Tories…perhaps because they assume the SNP will regain these seats …sure they do…OR they, unlike Scottish Unionist parties, do not see the significance or impact Scottish seats have in a GE as being a major deciding factor in which political party is ultimately elected as new WM government….or maybe they just can’t be arsed going into highlighting parts of their UK that does NOT impact them directly and are loathe to promote voting for the SNP…cause …Indy don’t ya know…also highlights the Lib Dems ( their party of choice) failing to have any real impact in Scotland where the infamous Remain alliance seems redundant….considering Scotland voted via a majority to REMAIN in the EU…AND where the SNP (not their party of choice) are so dominant and pro remain.
Remember yon time when the People’s Vote came up to Edinburgh to gain our SUPPORT….should have went to Specsavers…they were in the wrong part of the UKnotOK…trying to convince the already convinced to support what they already supported…the first time round………… via the initial referendum on EU…while neglecting, deliberately, those parts of their UKnotOK who were yet to be convinced on having a second vote..talk about preaching to the converted…fooling no one..but themselves…surely the road to success in their mission would have been to try and CONVERT those who were still to be converted…or perhaps they know they needed to keep the Jocks onside should they have a remote chance of a second vote…we, the Scots, would help to swing the vote to keep THEM in the EU.
Please vote SNP tomorrow ( or if in Neale Hanvey’s area vote for him….get Lazy Laird (current shadow secretary for WM’s poodle in Scotland) OUT .
@ Dr Jim
“who took on the entire British state and all its media and won”
Really? When did this happen? It’s just that I recall a No vote being returned and since then, the SNP have made a lot of noise but no action and have got themselves into a ridiculous, AMATEURISH position over Brexit.
Now, I (postal voted) for SNP and I urge everyone in Scotland to vote for them tomorrow but I think they’re finished after this.
Alison Brown says:
11 December, 2019 at 2:13 pm
Or Scenario E – Scotland screws its self and votes Tory in all 13 of the Tory seats. England gives Johnson a huge-ish majority. Section 30 laughed out of the room. The court case on Scottish Sovereignty laughed out of the room. Scottish Britnats ecstatic!! The rest of us cry into our pillows. I reach for my anti-depressants.
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Pretty depressing, yeah.
But then along comes Brexit under Boris’s deal and an estimated economic collapse of 6.7% of UK GDP, possibly concurrent with the next global recession.
60+% Yes is not too much to hope for in such circumstances. So then we’re in the scenario we’ve always been heading for: Tory Brexit turning Scotland into an economic wasteland and telling that 60+% Yes support to suck it up. What happens then is up to the Scottish people and how badly they want/need to escape the nightmare.
Another variation:
1. Tories win majority
2. Tories Brexit (current deal or No deal because of said majority)
3. Tories disband Scottish Parliament (Power Grab on steroids)
4. Beefed up Scotland Office then administer North Britain
hi folks normally just lurk, stated a few weeks ago that I was fed up with snp over their gender carry on. I was not going to vote. After watching the shambles on the TV debates and reports on tv. I have decided that the snp deserve my vote. Why? All representatives of the party came across as sane,calm, put the points across positively and trounced the other parties. even getting applause in England shire. I am certain if we were standing there that we gather more than a few seats due to our policies which have been implemented and the rest are playing catch up. What happens after the election we will need to see how the land lies. SNP never bit when questioned about what actions they would take re: independence or brexit. keep cards close to chest, tell them hee haw. Let’s show these sycophantic, twisted liars, however votes tory needs incarcerated.
From Craig Murray’s piece:
“The final reason to believe that the Tory lead will narrow from the YouGov constituency model poll is that they themselves reported this. Their poll was taken over seven days; at that start of that period it was showing an 11 point lead to the Tories, by the last day it was showing **an eight point lead**.”
That combined with this thread, which plausibly claims the Tory lead is really below 5%, suggests this could be very close indeed, and that the SNP might well hold the balance of power: link to mobile.twitter.com
@ MarB @ 3.15pm
Hi MarB, welcome….glad you have chosen to comment.
Have a good day
Scottish Labour MPs vote to back Tory cuts
It has been revealed 28 Scottish Labour MPs (including Ian Murray) voted with the UK government for £75billion of cuts and tax rises.
Commenting, SNP Treasury spokesperson Stewart Hosie MP said:
“Labour has shown their true colours in siding with the Tories, and it shows now even more clearly that only by voting SNP can Westminster’s obsession with imposing austerity cuts – that just don’t work – be changed.
Osborne is committed to continued austerity which will hit Scottish public services and tonight he has been backed by Scottish Labour.
The Scottish Labour MPs who voted tonight with the Tories represent some of the areas which have been hardest hit by government austerity measures, and it will be ordinary, hard-working people in their constituencies who will continue to suffer.”
link to caltonjock.com
Or Europe referendum is for remaining but only because of Scottish votes. England votes leave.
Or narrow remain win and leave want best of 3.
There are numerous permutations, the only one that doesn’t suit is a Labour majority and i’ll skinny dip alongside Ruth if that happens
We’ve forgotten another possibility…
Westminster ( who ever is in power ) decide their best chance of holding us and not losing in Court or, winning in Court and expose the real terms and conditions of the Union.
Is to run Indy Ref Two themselves!
The SNP couldn’t refuse to have one,it would be put up or shut up time for them!
Westminster would give itself the section 30, control the date, the question,and the franchise…
It’s what I’d do it I was a British Nationalist and there was a large SNP vote tomorrow.
I know all the British Parties have said no Scottish Referendum…. But they say all sorts of shit..
If Brexit does not happen there will be no respecting any public vote in future.
The remain crowd can be as self satisfied, jubilant, obnoxious and patronising as they like.
The Scottish remainers who are pinning their hopes on getting an indy ref after ignoring the Brexit referendum are, on multiple levels and for multiple reasons probably the most stupid and hypocritical group of people ive ever had the misfortune to seriously consider.
Things will never be the same. That’s before this election takes place. It just depends if there is any respect for democratic principles after its done.
To think that this is the end game, or anywhere near the end game, is to be living in a wishful naive little bubble.
This is just the end of the beginning. How this plays out will set the course of the next 5 years and may show the pampered ignorant people of the UK just how ugly things can get when you do not respect political outcomes.
Under the the thin veneer of democratic process lies total chaos, worse than almost any democratic outcome that you are too childish to bring yourself to accept. Crack that veneer at your own risk.
If one persons vote doesn’t count, because ‘you just know better than them’, then neither the fuck will yours. That’s a fact and a promise.
MarB @ 3.15
Hi, Welcome aboard 🙂
Despite our moaning we’re all voting SNP too….
Or under D with a lot more SNP MPs and the EU don’t let UK gov forget that. Realpolitik says a divide and rule where iScotland is separated from Brexit rUK and in the EU is a good result. It would weaking rUK possibly even enough for them to conclude they need to be back in the EU fast.
We know we have friends in the EU and they might just seriously embarrass ukgov or even tie acceptance of a S30 to talks progress. Stranger things have happened and EU silence over Catalunya doesn’t have to apply to us. Wanting iScotland in the EU also trumps ‘interfering in the internal affairs of the UK’. Trade negotiations do that all the time after all.
Angela, Emmanual and even kind old Uncle Vlad in the Kremlin might weigh in our behalf. I doubt the Chinese will though, not with Taiwan, Tibet and the NW to worry about. I wouldn’t mind betting the 98% referendum result in Bouganville (does that beat the Norwegians?) will not be reported in China.
@ Liz g
Hi Liz how you doing…are you surviving the Sheeite fest of this GE….
So many scenarios on here…bring on the reality…hopefully the ideal one for us peeps…you know what it is Lol
Have a good day/evening
ps. you can still call me Flapper…Lol
Look there are more possibilities than A B C D
We do not need a lot more than 50% in favour of Scottish independence all we need is more than 50% Ulster has zero to do with it.
If a U.K. court ever said that Scotland cannot have a Scottish independence referendum when Scotland had voted as a majority for SNP there would be action taken by the Scottish government in Holyrood to declare that it was going ahead with the referendum anyway , they would dare the U.K. court to try and stop it , the only way they could would be to arrest the Holyrood politicians.
Try doing that and see how it works.
The EU/EC will do nothing and let the UK tear itself to pieces over Brexit, while remaining. A close friend who works at top level in that organisation told me as much 3 years ago. So far, he/she has been proven right. I don’t expect that to change ie the EU doesn’t have to do anything at all.
What that means for Scotland is rather more problematic as Stu has frequently pointed out.
We’re all doomed!
PS. Is there any way of getting notifications that you’ve posted new content on here. I used to use Twitter, but you blocked me last weekend for arguing with a lesbian.
@ Terry Callachan
You mean like in Cataluna.
The truth is becoming clearer. Power lies where the guns are. Full stop.
@ Merkin Scot
Interesting post. Thanks for sharing that
Or, and this is why I thought voting for an election when they did was a case of turkeys voting for Xmas. Tory majority care of retaining most Scottish seats, SNP don’t do much better than 35. Then both referendums are dead in the water. Takes till 2021 to regroup and don’t forget about the Wings party proposal.
@Wee Alex,
Its no that big a loch to accomodate Ruth and A.N.Other.
In another dimension:
‘While we disagree that leaving the European Union is in the best interests of the people of the United Kingdom, we must respect the democratic will of the electorate in this great demonstration of democracy and we support the people of England in whichever choice they have made now, or in the future.
Scotland, however, overwhelming voted to remain in the EU. There has never been a clearer example that our nations are now travelling in different directions. For that reason the SNP will now make a binding referendum on Scottish independence our full and entire focus until the wishes of the Scottish electorate and our constitutional reality are reconciled.’
That would have been the response, or something similar, to Brexit from a capable (and honest) SNP leader literally years ago now. Compare it with the utter shite we’ve got and try not to puke.
The Tories *offer* a referendum to the 4 countries of the UK on breaking up the EU, two of those countries say NO thanks to that but the most populated country England says we don’t care because that’s what’s happening
The SNP *threaten* to offer a referendum on political separation from England dictatorship and the dictatorship says NO because it’s divisive when what they mean is there’s still a lot of money to be extracted from Scotland before you can leave because all the other countries we exploited before were pretty much broke by the time we *allowed* them to leave
Yet there are still people in Scotland who will vote against the offer of Independence probably knowing that Scotland under England’s economic model will eventually go bust, then like Northern Ireland the English Tories will cast Scotland aside anyway as by then Scotland will be in no position to subsidise England any longer with the oil that England has been living on for the last fifty years
The Republic of Ireland has a GDP of 5.6% the highest in the EU, the UK under English rule is 24th out of 28 at 1.3%
The UK pension is the lowest in the EU
UK poverty condemned by the UN is now higher than Greece, remember all the smarty pants remarks about them
The UK has the second biggest unelected body of law makers in the world next to China the (House of Lords) yet they convinced people it was the EU that was unelected (lie)
England did all this by waving a Union flag and screeching and promising to get rid of *different* folk who don’t belong in their country, no mention of Scotland Wales or Northern Ireland there, just England, they even deported a load of them illegally and the press made a peep for a week then nothing, who cares it’s only foreigners of different colours who most of them were apparently born in England or invited to come there
Yet there are still people in Scotland who either haven’t noticed or don’t care that when you put all these things together the Tories in England are invading every corner of each country of the UK with a dictatorial regime, not a government and they care nothing for any kind of democracy that the people of any of those coutries might want or even vote for
Can nobody here see who these people are, the EU can see it because they had this before and that’s why one of the reasons the EU was set up was to avoid allowing regimes like this to ever happen again
Clapper 57 @ 3.43
Hi Flapper 🙂
I’m muddling through this Dross fest of an election 🙂
And I’m loving the self harm the BBC and the MSM are commiting, which will “hopefully” have put a stop to the YES Campaign not being believed about their atrocious behaviour…. Every Cloud and all that … LOL
Anyhoo
Take care of you my friend and keep on keepin on 🙂
Joe…Catalonia accept that they are not a country
They too want to be independent but to compare Catalonia with Angus wanting independence or Fife or some other county would be more appropriate
Yes I agree with you there is always the possibility of guns when a government arrest the politicians of a government in another country
It’s happened often before
The outcome is never ever settled forever when that happens
Instead you are left with a Northern Ireland type situation but on a larger scale
If SNP get fewer seats In this GE than they have at present
Then forget Scottish independence , quite rightly , for now
Until the next time it looks like a majority might want Scottish independence
If SNP get more seats and if for example they got as much as60% of the votes
There will be no stopping a Scottish independence referendum
About a fifth of the votes against Scottish independence are English people living in Scotland
They will not be voting SNP in this GE
They will be voting tactically for labour Tory Lib Dem’s to try and keep SNP out
That’s what they always do
So if SNP get as much as 60% of the vote
a fifth of that 40% who don’t vote SNP is 8% meaning that less than a third of Scottish people would be against Scottish independence
Try arguing against a Scottish independence referendum in those circumstances
I have been a bit down as the promised SNP ‘make this election all about indy’ has not happened.
Last spring SNP said that in the autumn every house in Scotland would get a book about the economic case independence, it did not happen.
Now I read your article Stu and the readers comments. Think I will go and find the whisky.
Or the SNP could say to Labour, fine, we’ll abstain on everything, you’re a minority Gov, nothing will pass !
Bob Mack and wee Alex
If labour get a majority I will jump in there with the three of you
I’m wishing for a new Passport, not really bothered what colour or nationality. Pity I don’t have any Irish grandparents…
The way forward might be for the SNP government to hold a January 2020 advisory independence referendum. If the return was positive it could take the result to the European Court of Justice seeking an order to the Westminster government to complete a binding referendum within 6 months
For those who believe pollsters agree honourable please take a seat
Shocking proof that yougov polls are fixed
They lie and distort by choosing from a database to get the results they want to project
Polls cannot be trusted ?
N_
December 11, 2019 at 16:26
For even clearer proof that YouGov are fiddling their figures to help the Tories, look at the age weightings. Click here for two tables that say it all. Some of what “centrist_phone” has been posting has been highly questionable, but YouGov’s fanciful weightings for age show exactly what game they are playing. They are fraudsters.
Here’s the proof
Parliament’s estimated turnout figures for 2017:
18-24…..64.7%
25-34…..62.8%
35-44…..65.6%
45-54…..68.6%
55-64…..72.3%
65+ …..75.0%
Now look at the weightings used by YouGov in the MRP they released last night:
YouGov weightings
18-25…..52%
25-30…..52%
30-35…..57%
35-40…..63%
40-45…..66%
45-50…..70%
50-55…..74%
55-60…..79%
60-65…..83%
65-70…..85%
70-75…..85%
75-80…..85%
80-85…..87%
85+…..90%
I have checked both sets of figures. The second lot are in the YouGov document published here, which you can check is genuine because it is the document that they link to from their page here. (You need to click where it refers to “the academic examination of the results written by Professor Lauderdale”.)
As for Parliament’s own estimates, they are published on the Parliament website here.
Reply ?
N_
December 11, 2019 at 16:48
Pollster lying to help the Tories is now proven.
The question is “why?” Some may think that question has an obvious answer, namely “To encourage people to follow the supposed crowd and vote Tory, of course”. Well yes, sure, that will be one intended effect – the “Eight out of 10 owners say their cats prefer it” method of persuasion.
But another aim, probably more important, is to help legitimise the result. If Labour win somewhere between 31% and 36% the MSM can say the pollsters’ average was bang on, or it was out by a small percentage, and they can publish graphs showing performance in polls and then the end result, as if we were talking about the measurement of the same quantity as it varies over time. (For those who may not have thought about this before, no we are not talking about that.) Stupid young reporters can say things such as “the results are within the margin of error”. Meanwhile the real Labour percentage could have been 42% or 44% and the only reason the returning officers reported Tory wins in 50 or 100 seats where the real winners were Labour, the Liberal Democrats or the SNP was massive postal-ballot cheating.
I see Ruth has been crawling around the Hun area ….canvassing caves where a few cavemen/women have been communicating in the only way they can communicate….according to Ruth the Captains and Captainesses CavePeople of that well known area in Glasgow called ‘WeAreThePeople’ have told her they refer to Nicola as “That F***ing woman”..as surely not saying it in Bearsden…Mirror Mirror on the wall whose the biggest liar of them all………that’ll be you Ruth aka That F***ing Tory Rape Clause Woman aka Rooth the Mooth…Lol
Speaking of women Ruth…Is Jane Lax(ative) still suspended…or has it been temporary (for at least 10 years) lifted for her to help youse all in this GE….if so Red card Red card…Not another one !
Please can we all thank Tom Gordon of The Herald for exposing the threat and danger Unionist politicians like Ruth Davidson represent to politicians such as Nicola Sturgeon in her, Ruth, sharing vile and DIVISIVE comments such as these while obviously condoning the people who said this…thus exposing how low Tories in Scotland are willing to descend to leave politicians like Nicola open to abuse…and indeed danger.
Ruth taking a leaf out of Bojo’s book….winning formula she thinks hence her notion to be a part of the Nasty party darn sarf…..she’s the Winstonetta Churchill to his Winston…
Ruth as PM with her Winstonetta Churchill speech outside 10 Downing Street…ps. She’s dreaming.
We shall defend our UKOK, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the football terraces, we shall fight on the landing grounds (Scotland only), we shall fight in the fields of Kirsten Hair’s dad’s farm and in the streets at Ibrox, we shall fight in the hills (Loudoun and we’ll win this time oh England my Lionheart different King but you get the picture whose side I am on); we shall never surrender.
End of her speech will be…..King Billy ya bass….No surrender.
Winston’s speech to be knobbed by Bojo courtesy of Dominic strategy Cummings :
We shall defend our island in da sun ( Gove’s input), whatever the cost may be ( will be costly poor peasants), we shall fight on the beaches ( the poor ones with donkeys), we shall fight on the landing grounds ( where my private plane will land AFTER the fight), we shall fight in the fields ( of Gold) and in the streets ( of Derry) , we shall fight in the hills ( have eyes who are spys); we shall never surrender ( DUP told me to add that) .
Spot the difference…new boss same as the old boss…Lol
Apologies pre election 19th nervous breakdown
Worth reading this about how the BBC has been lying to us
Worth reading the comments too which show how yougov have been lying to us too
You cannot trust the BBC or STV or sky or the newspapers
You cannot trust opinion polls either
All run by the same people who jump from job to job between these organisations ,husbands wives sons daughters friends and relatives all working together on high salaries to keep you misinformed
link to craigmurray.org.uk
Wise old bird chews up and spits out worm!
link to youtube.com
Hi Rev…probably went too far in my post which states ‘comment awaiting moderation’…just delete it no probs…ah crossed the line…Again.
Apologies to you for my bad words and below the belt comment …a bit disrespectful of me to think it was an acceptable comment to make on here …probably best I do not sink any lower Lol
Sorry.
I had thought I had seen everything till tonight. Whilst watchinv ITV, I heard a lady who worked as a volunteer in a foodbank talk about how sad it was etc etc etc.
When asked therefore who she was going to vote for she said Boris, because he has charisma. Honestly.
I truly feel as if they are letting morons take charge of this country by letting them vote at all.
The chances of a hung parliament are now vanishingly slim, so A, B and C are unlikely. If so, tho, the negotiations are actually hard to predict as Labour would be incredibly weak, so A, B and C are just haivers, really. A Tory elective dictatorship (D) is the most likely, so we are in for a fight.
So what does it cost for healthcare in USA ?
What would you have to pay if your NHS is privatised ?
Ambulance call out ? £2000
Having a baby £23000
link to twitter.com
Brainwashing:
Create an enemy, a demon, a thing to be feared, then invent a slogan to fight that demon and repeat it constantly, then tell the people you can relieve them of that demon if they do something for you which in the case of politics is just put a cross in the box for us and we will promise to remove the demon that was created by the strategists
Terrorists are created in the same way and the media help with it by showing the carnage they have wreaked repeatedly so that it’s not the amount of people who are killed that counts anymore but the coverage they can achieve by doing it making their cause appear more just to them which in turn gives the strategists more tools to alarm more people
Politics and terrorism use the same media publicity, it’s the same tactic
The UK controls all public media
If SNP were serious about Independence they would have gone for it when all the parties in Westminster were tied up in knots fighting each other, I believe that’s exactly how Iceland got it’s Independence, I also believe they would not have taken up their seats in the British parliament if they were serious. however that is all in the past now, they could of course refuse to take their seats after this election if they win by a majority but we know they won’t, all we can hope for now is that Jeremy Corbyn wins the keys to No10 and transforms the country as he says we will, Independence isn’t going to happen in the foreseeable future in my opinion, I will however be more than happy to be proved wrong. here’s to 2020 throwing up a miracle.
Suppose Johnson wins on Thursday/Friday. He’s been banging on about ‘Get Brexit Done’ and ‘Unleash Britains Potential’, so those things will probably be uppermost in his mind but what happens when he calms down and actually looks at the results and sees that the SNP have essentially cleaned up in Scotland?
I really don’t need this Section 30/IndyRef2 nonsense, I’m just going to suspend Holyrood.’
And that is a very real possibility.
OT.
It’s just struck me. W. Rennie rabbits on about mental health.
Is this that he & his co-horts will go to the top of the list.
@ Terry callachan
In France, it costs a minimum of 25 euros to see a Doctor for a consultation, so you need to have your chequebook ready. Your health insurance policy is then supposed to reimburse you that money and all the subsequent money you pay for medication and treatment but in reality, they repay you about 75% – 80%.
It’s not just America that uses health insurance.
If young Scotland doesn’t turn out to vote SNP to protect Scotland then they will only have themselves to blame when my generation of old clueless duffers make the wrong decisions for them yet again
I’m not clueless, it’s thame, it’s thame, the other wans and they’ll vote stupid Tory or Liberal bloody Democrat and bugger up your lives and you’ll have no right to moan if you don’t vote
‘….. they’d have already done a deal with Johnson to pass Brexit in return for the S30 powers’
I am still clinging to the hope that that might still be an option for the SNP after Friday.
Oh, my God. Truthless Ruthless skinny dipping in Loch Ness. Which monster will attract most tourists.
Mist001..If BJ suspends the Scottish Parliament he will have to bring in the police to lock the doors.
There are so many people in Scotland who would not allow that to happen.
A hefty protest and action to prevent closure would be certain.
Closing down the elected government of another country never ends well perpetual protest and rioting is the least one can expect.
Stronger violent reactions are common.
Mist001.
Wow , ok if at the doc once in a while but costly if there a lot.
My wife has a friend in USA and for him his wife and two school age children he is two thousand dollars a month for his health insurance !
i’m suddenly stressing about boris’ stated ONE NATION conservatism.
this imlpies no devolved assemblies, does it not ?
sir psephogolist has just said he’s got a 10-ish point lead !
insomnia beckons……again
oops
implies
I feel physically sick after reading this.
I have zero faith in the courts and if they find in favour of Westminster regarding Section 30.
Will there be any point to SNP existing as Independence will never happen.
I think if that’s the case, we should say that Scotland has ceased to exist as a country and should be named “England” instead.
I don’t want future generations to ever feel what most of us felt on the 19th September 2014 and lose the chance of ever getting an independence referendum again.
hahaha
Steve Coogan on CH4……brilliant.
No need to worry too much on Lanark & Hamilton East and maybe some others, other factors to be considered.
Will i stop off at the polling station on the way to the game?
Will i head straight home, crack open a beer and watch the pre-match build up to this critical game, or will i stop off at the polling station, in the rain, along the way..
Got to be some impact due to this game.
Bang on the money on every point, Stuart.
I’ve being saying this for 3 years to folk – Brexit MUST happen! Not only must it take place for democracy to be seen working (because that is what we will be demanding should we win a 2nd Independence Referendum, but this is also the ONLY true path which leads to independence.
All those advocating in stopping Brexit are kidding themselves. As I said the other day there, many nationalists are going to slowly cotton when watching the results coming in that a Corbyn minority government will delay independence …especially when they see Scots cheering the possible death of Brexit. The death of Brexit means many happy Scots staying in the EU and also then happy to stay in the British Union. Only the smug and happily arrogant face of Boris Johnson punching the air as he gets his small majority will push more Scots towards independence. Many nationalists are acting like turkeys at the moment (and also at the right time of the year too) as they cheer on in stopping Brexit without realising the consequences.
Stuart, I know you said ‘Everything now hinges on the outcome of the court case’ …and yes, I would agree. However, the argument that will be presented to the Courts will be one arguing the inequality of the Union; the domination of one Kingdom over another and that Scotland is trapped in a Union in which it can never leave except at the mercy of the MPs or electorate of another nation …which would surely convince every Scottish judge that the arguments presented hold gravitas as well as truth. And God help the judge who decides that the fate of the Scottish people actually resides with the will of another nation – they would face extreme backlash (if not even violence) at what will be perceived in the eyes of many Scots, the ultimate and public declaration of what will be seen a Quisling act.
But yep …agree with you on everything you said above – this is one of your best posts of the year.
Terry Callachan The Spanish government did precisely that in Catalonia without even allowing a first independence referendum let alone a second
Extra bonus soaking in the afternoon after getting drenched in the morning… FML
fillofficer says: at 7:18 pm
“i’m suddenly stressing about boris’ stated ONE NATION conservatism.
this imlpies no devolved assemblies, does it not ?”
Only recently stressing?
This has been in the pipeline for a long time but people seem overly focused on the politics of it all rather than what the real implications of it might be.
So we’re all worried about the threat to our Scottish health service. But what about numerous other significant potential threats.
EG Scottish Outdoor Access Code.
It’s hardly likely it will be bolstered under a One Nation (England) Government, more likely we’ll see our ability to access the land rolled back to better align with England’s setup.
Like your mountain biking, hillwalking and wild camping do you, well how’d you feel if in the future the landowner is actually correct and will have the law behind him when he says “Get off my land”.
I’ve tried to establish if there is any validity to this potentially happening but had no responses.
Pity as it would have been a great motivator to get folk out to vote, but hey ho.
“Ach, they’d never do that” I hear murmured.
Well here is an example of the mindset of some of our “elite” class.
link to web.archive.org
Suck it up peasants…
JLT says:
11 December, 2019 at 7:37 pm
“Bang on the money on every point, Stuart.
I’ve being saying this for 3 years to folk – Brexit MUST happen! Not only must it take place for democracy to be seen working (because that is what we will be demanding should we win a 2nd Independence Referendum, but this is also the ONLY true path which leads to independence.”
Well I guess that is the case if you accept your “democracy” being completely corrupted by illegal campaigning and funding from dark money sources…
Suck it peasants
Don’t credit England with power it doesn’t have just because it has a big mouth and shouts loud
Catalonia has sod all to do with Scotland, there is no similarity whatsoever
The section 30 will be transferred as per the Scottish governments official demand as a legal right of the constitutional set up, if the Tories decide to play silly buggers over it they declare themseves a dictatorship to the rest of the world and good luck getting any trade deals with the EU or anybody else for that matter in the middle of legal challenges by the Scottish government unrest in England and the Irish about to lose their tempers
It’s not just Scotland who’ll be coming down on them, the world’s watching this behaviour and they don’t like it and Boris Johnson doesn’t have enough gunboats to threaten everybody with
Watch the big baby manchild cave to the EU just like he did over Northern Ireland and sold the DUP out because the EU said no Northern Ireland deal then no deal, and Scotland has many friends and allies in the EU, our FM has made sure of that, England has none
Commerce is everything or England dies, oh they’ll cave in all right and they know it, they’ll just make big mouthed noises about how losing is really winning
“A Tory elective dictatorship (D) is the most likely, so we are in for a fight.” you say @Zen Broon says at 5:56 pm
Good, nearly there then.
Then they fight you, then you win 😉
“One Nation Conservatism” = Fascism @fillofficer says: at 7:18 pm
Just think “Strength through unity” favoured by 1930s Fascists like Oswald Mosley and his British Union of Fascists.
The press baron Lord Rothermere (Daily Mail) was a notable early supporter of the BUF!
Same as it ever was 🙁
Maybe a tune will cheer folk up. lol
50 ways to leave your
loverCountry…link to youtube.com
Hi Terry callachan at 4:47 pm.
You typed,
“About a fifth of the votes against Scottish independence are English people living in Scotland
They will not be voting SNP in this GE
They will be voting tactically for labour Tory Lib Dem’s to try and keep SNP out
That’s what they always do”
I feel you’re being a tad disingenuous there. I was at every march/rally (except Dunfermline) in 2018 and every one in 2019 except Oban, coz I knew we’d be in Oban a few weeks later, on our way to the Campbeltown march/rally. So, I was in Oban on Thursday, 25th July, the hottest day of the year, and suffered sunburnt arms, through sitting outside at the Corryvrecken (Wetherspoons) for 3 hours in the early afternoon, quaffing pints of Tennents.
At most of those rallies, the “English Scots For Yes” had a stall, mostly offering cakes. One of their organisers, Math, is an SNP councillor!
You can’t tar every English Scot as anti-SNP.
Hi Dan at 8:02 pm.
You typed,
“EG Scottish Outdoor Access Code.
It’s hardly likely it will be bolstered under a One Nation (England) Government, more likely we’ll see our ability to access the land rolled back to better align with England’s setup.”
I’m sure I read on WOS (probably Robert Peffers) that there is no law of tresspass in Scotland, because the people of Scotland are sovereign and, theoretically, own the country.
There are laws in place to protect privacy, eg you can’t just walk up to somebody’s windows and peer in (The Ann Gloag case) but you can walk/camp where you want away from residences.
No doubt somebody on here can elaborate further on that. But as Scots Law is protected by the Treaty of Union, “the English” could find themselves on their own sticky wicket if they tried to alter Scots Law.
I’m actually dreading a hung parliament as it will drag the SNP into all sorts of difficult situations where we will be damned if we do, damned if we dont.
The Rev may sneer at the fear of the ghost of 1979… but Labour will hammer us if anything like that happens again, and as we know anything will be spun against us now matter how tenuous the connection with reality.
…another reason for that is I dont want a Section 30 order to be seen as something we have to bargain for, or is handed down. I would rather it went to court (as long as we win of course).
Aye Brian, you’re certainly correct to point out that Terry is incorrect in what he states.
Some of the most politically switched on and commited Indy folk / activists I speak to are English folks that have moved up here.
This is the case because they have seen how much better it is up here (for the time being…) compared to England.
It’s a pity some of our own homegrown dunderheided Scots aren’t more receptive to the enlightenment these English folk could offer them.
link to standard.co.uk
“Electoral Commission’s warning after BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg commented on postal votes”
link to theneweuropean.co.uk
…and if the SNP lose seats it may put independence back for years, and I’ll be holding Wing’s nonsense of the last few weeks partly responsible
How about:
Labour with SNP support forms the government.
Laws for both a 2nd EU and 2nd Independence referendum are passed.
The second EU vote results in the same outcome: overall Leave across UK but Scotland votes remain.
Second independence referendum now takes place – EU makes clear that a Yes vote will lead to Scotland being admitted as a separate member before the end of the transition period.
Scottish voters take courage from fact that Scotland will be part of something bigger, and vote Yes 🙂
It could happen…
@Brian. I’m fairly certain being protected by The Treaty of Union is as much use as a steak is to a vegetarian (unless the cow self ID’d as a carrot..)
IIRC Mr Peffers also states that the Treaty itself has been breached in various ways over the years, possibly even from its inception.
Does that same Treaty not state that no constituent part of the UK should have an advantage over another.
So how has England’s population been allowed to grow (with the knock on positive economic effect that has) at a considerably faster rate that Scotland’s…
I think I’ll put a pound on Bojo being ousted by Yace “Interplanetary Time Lord” Yogenstein! Unlikely but would be hilarious and economically rewarding!!
@Dan
Well I guess that is the case if you accept your “democracy” being completely corrupted by illegal campaigning and funding from dark money sources…
Dan …you’re talking about every British political campaign – not just the EU Referendum.
And while it might sting that the whole Referendum was corrupted in places (for we all knew that the Tories would cheat and that that dark practices were taking place) …folk still voted for it.
So yeah, you’re right …suck it up peasants …and they did – knowingly! Democratically, most folk who participated by voting, did want Brexit and therefore won …and therefore, despite what took place, democracy must be seen to be done.
Can you imagine if we halted Brexit and then demanded our own IndyRef2 – got it – then won it …only for Westminster to say ‘No! because we’re not happy with the result’ What is good for the goose is good for the gander. Be careful for what you wish for…
#PostalVoteGate
link to bbc.co.uk
The SNP is rather fixated with legality. The party ought to reflect on who makes the laws in BritState.
Dan @ 9.05
The Treaty is/will be of use Dan if we are prepared to use it.
EG… Scots Law is separate,that is beyond dispute (aye)
The thing that keeps it separate is the Treaty.
If Westminster could completely ignore it we would have been truly assimilated long before now.
It is the Existence of the Treaty that underpins the concept that Scotland could leave the Union and that there is even a Union to leave.
They play at this “One Nation” thing,mostly by the language they use and propaganda but the Treaty they are stuck with.
( as an aside…. They understand that Britain/British terminology has lost a bit of its power just now,and are pushing the “Nation” thing hard.
We should not accept this…. This is how American Indians/Native Americans / FIRST NATION Americans are, and have been referenced.
Scots are not a British Tribe or Clans of Britain… This propaganda should be rejected and we shouldn’t let Westminster denigrate and ignore our side of the 1707 Treaty the way Washington does to the Native Americans and it’s Treaties with them either)
They cannot alter it or replace it,for to do so would acknowledge and draw attention to there being a choice about it!
Yes, it’s terms have been broken many time’s but that tells us nothing about it’s validity, it only tells us that either party has not the will or the mechanisms to action the breaking of it, (“so far”) not, that it cannot be done.
Westminster has lived by the terms of its creation since the Treaty Created Westminster…. the separate Law of Scotland, while not the only example demonstrates this best.
I have always thought that the SNP ( from way back )got it wrong by framing the debate as “Scottish Independence” one, which gives the impression of a Colony, and, that they should have made it more about ending the Treaty agreement that amalgamated the two Parliaments….. But we are where we are….. And Court involvement may be a better way to orchestrate the leaving of the Union because Politics itself can be manipulated much more!
Has McTernan predicted the results yet,
this is him doing a `Kuenssberg` in 2014 3 days before Indy1 referendum,
link to youtube.com
40 seconds in,
Electoral Commission done hee haw about it, `uppity jocks back in the basement with you for another 300 years` was the jist of their reply .
Glamaig I agree with you .it is beyond sad!
Here’s something that’s just occurred to me tonight.
The “BBC” is the British Broadcasting Corporation. Thus, its output must cover “Britain”, which must include Great Britain and (arguably) Northern Ireland.
So, after indy, the BBC must still cover “Britain” as a geographical entity. Thus, in Scotland, on our Freeview channels, at 6pm, we’ll have a choice of BBC1 or SBC Scotland.
Works for me…
@JLT
You’re right that is has been every UK political campaign in recent years. Ergo there is evidence that it wasn’t just a one off anomaly.
Democracy must seen to be working…aye, within the fucking law.
What happened to justice must be seen to be done?
Why continue to play a corrupt game knowing fine well those in control of the system will ignore or change the “rules” as and when it sees fit.
If we continue to play the corrupt game without any protestations, then we are arguably part of that same corrupt system, so when and if we ever do finally get round to lodging a complaint, we’ll just get “Well it never bothered you before”.
This continual suck it up peasants stylée gameplan is as much use as turning up to a gun fight with a sausage in your hand and wearing only a t-shirt with a target on it.
Don’t worry though, we’ll just keep putting up a constant supply of new people, sausages, and t-shirts till they run out of ammo. Genius.
That said, even those “democratic” opportunities are slowly being kicked into touch.
The recent Withdrawal Act was trying to be pushed through with wording that would allow the closing of the devolved administration without Parliamentry consent.
If Bojo manages to get the GE election result that allows them to leave EU in whatever way they choose, you can easily see them postponing future elections till further notice while they sort out new trade deals, under the guise of “we can’t setup new deals with continual internal turbulence within the UK”.
After all the waffling shit he has spouted, him stating something as short and concise as that would have the electorate fawning over such a rational and sensible plan.
And 5 or more years of divergence from EU Regs. makes it all the more difficult for Scotland if it ever does wish to rejoin Europe in some capacity.
HYUFD 7.52pm
Yes but as I’ve said before
Catalonia is not a country
Catalonia want independence but they accept that they are not a country
That makes their situation different to what Scotland has
Scotland is a country
As I’ve said before also
If England decides to close the Scottish Parliament
They would have to send in police
Scottish people would not allow the police to close the Scottish Parliament
There would be trouble
When a country tries to close down the government of another country it never ends well
Brian doonthetoon …8.39hrs
Yes I’m sure you had a great time
I agree english Scots for yes have a stall at many rallies and marches
They get in the papers a lot as well
You can get the whole dozen of them in one photo too
English Scots for yes we’re socialists from England who in 2014 found a way to represent their socialist policies more easily with DNP than with any of the unionist party’s at the time who were pretty much carbon copies of each other
I have no problem with them
But they are very very few in number
Unfortunately in my opinion they are a smokescreen that gets lots more media attention than the huge number of of English English in Scotland for England
Furthermore it’s very unfortunate that they are helped a great deal in setting the smokescreen by kindly well meaning Scottish Scots for yes
Spot on there Dr Jim.
Truth is none of us knows what scenarios will pan out but if people don’t get out and vote SNP it will be taken that Scotland doesn’t care and will allow England to do whatever it wants.
Tories will get their vote out, they always do.
Brian doonthetoon…
English Scots for yes have 1500 members
FAB
That’s about 0.2 ( zero point two percent ) of the English people in Scotland
And that’s being generous
I love them I really do
Even though many of them actually voted NO in the 2014 Indy ref
And even though many of them say the reason they are now YES for Indy is that property prices in the south of England got too much for them and so they moved to Scotland and have found it very welcoming and inclusive
Personally I have never been against these people
Power to them I say
But they get way more media coverage than the 99.8% of English people in Scotland who vote NO
And that media coverage is a smokescreen for the undemocratic influence the 99.8% have
Don’t you just love it when unexpected voters join and your support your campaign
I can’t say I love it when people from the country that controls my country and treats it so badly
then demand a vote on whether or not they should be allowed to continue treating my country so badly
Last Call for A Christmas Carol, Alan Cummings’ call to vote for Scotland’s future. 7mins
link to youtube.com
Terry. Fairly certain there were more “homegrown” Scots than English incomers that voted No in 2014.
So quit with the English angle, or I’ll get ma Maw to boot you in the baws for continuing with this agenda.
She’s English, an SNP member, and attended several Indy marches, but she’s not part of English Scots for YES.
Then just as yer baws are dropping back down to earth I’ll get another English person I know who does an absolutely incredible amount of work to promote Scottish Indy to boot them again.
Folk will see you at future Indy marches and say “That’s Terry off of Wings, you can tell coz he’s got 3 Adam’s apples”.
NB: just bantz to make a point.
Cheers for response Liz. I’m gonna have to hit my scratcher as up at 6am to get round the 3 polling stations with the boards at the start of what’s going to be a long day…
May try to post gibberish from phone to update throughout the day.
#tweetlikekuenssberg
Hi Terry callachan at 11:03 pm.
You typed,
“English Scots for yes have 1500 members
FAB
That’s about 0.2 ( zero point two percent ) of the English people in Scotland
And that’s being generous
I love them I really do”
I guess if you actually have a blether with them, it can change your perception.
link to youtube.com
link to youtube.com
link to youtube.com
Listen, in particular, to the last one, from a BBC bias demo in 2014.
“Holyrood is secured for the foreseeable future and dozens of SNP MPs can enjoy the Westminster lifestyle for years to come on a “standing up for Scotland in the UK” ticket, completing their Animal Farm-esque transformation into Scottish Labour.”
That’s what I think as well.
George Orwell will be chuckling in his grave.
Just switched off the STV, their chap “in the street” could not find anyone who knew how they were voting tomorrow. “It’s difficult, you don’t know who to believe” stuff.
FFS.
Nearly at Election day 2019.
VOTE SNP ON DECEMBER 12th
Most important, wherever you live, get out the vote. Remind friends, family, especially younger members, help the Candidates and your local group to spread leaflets, knock on voters doors to remind them to vote, offer to take people to the polling station and do anything you can to…
GET OUT THE VOTE
SNP, SNP, SNP, SNP, SNP, SNP, SNP
and if you can’t bring yourself to vote for the SNP then please use your vote for the candidate most likely to defeat the Tories. Whatever you do, do not stay at home and waste your precious vote.
This is a special election – please play your part in Scotland’s future .
Dan @ 11.26
Night Dan…
mair power tae ye, and thank ye,for all that ye do 🙂
You gotta love all this crap about the SNP want a nice soft life in Westminster and they’re in it for the money
Dr Phillipa Whitford Joanna Cherry QC I’m stopping there because the list is long of SNP MPs and MSPs who certainly don’t and never have done this crap job for the money and it’s insulting of those who claim they do
Just a reminder that SNP MSPs have not accepted a wage rise since 2010 and the excess of those wages goes direct to charity, George Kerevan when he was a SNP MP I believe only accepted the average living wage of £26.000 the rest going to charity
At least half of SNP MPs made more money outside of politics than in it, point to a Tory or Labour or Lib Dem or Green who does the same
BBC impartiality at its finest?
link to dorseteye.com
Survation looking good for us. SNP on 4% of the UK total. Full Scottish poll details should be up soon.
GB VOTING INTENTION
CON 44.5
LAB 33.7
LD 9.3
GRE 3.2
SNP 4.0
PC 1.4
AP 0.9
Survation polled 2395 people living in Great Britain by telephone between the 10th and 11th December 2019.
I think this is the sort of thing to which Craig Murray was drawing attention.
The underreported story of tories who don’t have the stomach to vote tory
Well we’ll know by 10 tonight whether he was on to something.
link to archive.is
Terry Callachan Tell that to the Catalan nationalist government which tried to declare UDI
Another great article covering a few interesting scenarios and a lot of good btl comments, especially those of ‘Terry Callachan’. Thanks, Terry, very informative and confirmed quite a bit of what i already knew of YouGov.
And well said on the English situation. With you all the way on that. Never seen any hint you were being anything other than sincere. EnglishScot4Yes have 1500 members but there’s circa 400K English living in Scotland.
EnglishScot4Yes have made great progress with spreading the word and bringing folk on board and i promote them at every single opportunity i get. But, there’s still a target group of hundreds of thousands out there.
You raised a genuine issue and there’s absolutely nothing racist or anti-English about it. Keep up the great work and thanks again for your btl contributions. Good stuff!
And btw folks, i believe most of that target group are persuadable. More so than a certain section of so-called “Scots”. Yous all know the Billy BritNat type.
From WoS twitter last poll before midnight.
@Survation final #GE2019 poll
(fully weighted Scotland subsample n=910)
SNP 45.6%
CON 27.4%
LAB 14.8%
LD 9.6%
BXP 1.4%
GRN 1.1%
James Kelly. Seems pleased!
This is sensational if true: Survation’s full-scale Scottish poll appears to give SNP a mammoth 19% lead. Now only one question remains: CAN WE ACTUALLY GET THE VOTE OUT?
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.com
The Scottish Unionist party will no doubt claim this as a victory over the SNP if the percentages stay the same
Different parties in name only
Britain Elects (from Survation)
Scotland, Westminster voting intention:
SNP: 46% (+9)
CON: 28% (-1)
LAB: 15% (-12)
LDEM: 10% (+3)
GRN: 1% (+1)
BREX: 1% (+1)
Good Morning. Vote SNP 🙂
Scottish Tory vote barely changed from 2017, LD vote up. Main movement Labour to SNP but SNP still well below 2015 levels
I must get my I-Ching book out again and start throwing the coins to predict the future.
Meanwhile, we are all voting SNP in our house, the posters are up. Saw a few more private reg massive chav wagons today, more than usual in Edinburgh, must be second home folks coning back to Scotland vote SNP. Yep.
Capella @ 12.55 PM
Yes. Thank goodness you are here like a breath of fresh air =)
I do believe and trust that the SNP will achieve exactly what we need to have our Independence Referendum and win Scotland’s Independence with a very healthy majority.
Vote SNP 🙂
GET OUT AND VOTE .
Encourage everyone you meet today to vote SNP , today is a step nearer the Referendem campaign .
Really important that as many people turn out to vote as possible. Too many people are disillusioned and turned off by blatant lies, think politicians are all the same. They’re not. Encourage those who are thinking they can make no difference, there are so many marginal in Scotland.
Fresh Links here:
link to indyref2.space
Vote early and vote often.
No matter what, vote SNP. In Scotland, it is the only sane choice, all the rest are a bunch of charlatans and nutters, who care nothing for Scotland.
And yes, maybe some SNP policies might not chime with some folk, including me, but at the end of the day, the alternative is just horrible.
So, I’ll be out voting SNP, and I hope, no matter the issues, other folk who want independence will do so as well. Spolied ballot papers achieve the exact square root of sweet f*** all, because once the results are in, nobody cares. Seriously, spolit ballot papaers, nobody cares at all. So spoilt ballot papers are the work of children.
If you want indy, the ONLY way to vote is SNP. And, if I lived in England, I’d vote Labour, despite their constant lying and incompetence, since they are less bad than the lying neo-fascist, hateful, racist Tories.
You always have a choice. It might not be perfect, but spoiling ballot papers or not voting, is the work of morons, no matter how bad the choices are.
So, vote SNP, and get everyone you know to vote SNP. It is really, really important. If you do not, Scotland might well be under the Tories English jackboot permanently.
Dr Jim at 1203 am,
Totally agree. The likes of Joanna Cherry (and excellent SNP MP), could easily earn much more than her mp salary. She is a highly rated Scottish QC.
Glamaig at 0857pm,
I must say, I agree. Not sure what the thinking is behind it all. Not just before an election.
When you read about excellent things like this – a 24 hour metro system in copenhagen, you realise just how much the UK has fallen behind other modern countries.
link to edition.cnn.com
In Scotland, we have the chance to break free from the idiocy of Westminster English rule. We need to take that chance. We might not agree with all their policies, but voting SNP is the way to achieve it. Make sure to vote SNP today. Do not wake up on the 13th to the liars at the BBC cooing about how independence is dead etc.. etc.. and make no mistake, if folk don’t get out and vote SNP, that is EXACTLY what the outcome will be.
Scotland can do so much better. Vote SNP.
You have left out one scenario.
You are assuming that the SNP will still control the dialogue if it stalls on independence.
I predict the rise of a new and more outspoken independence party that’s prepared to put the boot in instead of nicely discussing permission with the oppressors.
From now on, it has to be one message “Exit the UK”.
Anything else is just wasting our breath and playing their game. Our UK based strategy is self harming.
Unfortunately, I have to concur with Rev
Well done Rev, you’ve managed to paint a very bleak picture with absolutely no hope. It makes me feel what is the point of voting, however, I will cast my vote to try and get rid of the lying Tory moron who is the MP in my area. I was hoping that we are on the road to independence but your analysis and your apparent stance regarding the SNP is making me feel that we are never going to achieve that independence. Time to buy a cabin in the highlands and go off grid methinks.