Disclaimer first: as we always say in situations like this, BOOKMAKERS’ ODDS ARE NOT PREDICTIONS. They’re based in significant part on the level of wagers placed, which means that you could affect the odds simply by making a large bet, which of course wouldn’t actually change the likelihood of a particular candidate winning.
So with that proviso, we present the following information purely for interest.
…which we felt it important to preserve for posterity lest anything happen to it. We’d charitably blame it all on the Telegraph, who made it, were it not for the fact that the Scottish Conservatives have posted it on their own Facebook page.
This is how today’s BBC News summed up (fairly accurately) the two main themes of last night’s Question Time special with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn:
May managed to largely get away with her party’s abysmal track record of brutal cuts and austerity, while Corbyn was made very uncomfortable by a howling mob of angry, terrifyingly bloodthirsty old white men over Labour’s policy on Trident.
And while Corbyn’s position on the nuclear deterrent is idiotic and makes him an easy target for opponents, the main reason for the differing outcomes is language.
We’re being told that this Tory leaflet, where Stephanie Smith is described as “Ruth Davidson’s candidate” for Edinburgh South, is standard across the whole country.
…that will satisfy the Unionist parties. Last night Ruth Davidson told STV viewers that even getting more than 50% of the vote in a general election wouldn’t give the SNP a mandate to pursue their manifesto policies.
She was echoing the words of Kezia Dugdale just over a year ago:
So that’s clear. Davidson has reversed her previous view. There is now no peaceful democratic avenue by which the people of Scotland could express the wish for a second referendum which the two main Unionist parties would accept. They have EXPLICITLY said, in full public view, that they would reject any democratic mandate.
She’d insisted explicitly several times that a Jeremy Corbyn administration WOULD block a new indyref, even after being shown a video clip of Corbyn from earlier in the day saying he wouldn’t, and she repeatedly urged readers not to listen to the party’s leader and to instead go and look at the Labour manifesto.
Today’s Daily Record has a swipe at Jeremy Corbyn for, well, let’s call them “mixed messages” over a second independence referendum. It suggests his Scottish branch manager Kezia Dugdale would have “her head in her hands” over his latest comments, which is a bit rich considering Dugdale’s own history on the subject.
And since her headline boast when she took over as leader of the North British office was that people would know exactly what Labour stood for (and indeed she spent all of the weekend’s keynote Sunday Politics interview listing all the things she’d been very very clear about), we thought we’d have a recap and see how that was going.
Apologies in advance about this, folks, but it’s driving us mad. We got into a Twitter argument with some Tory balloon last night and this morning, and to cut a long story short it got us looking at the 1951 UK general election result.
History records it as a Tory majority, securing just over half of the Parliamentary seats (321 of 625) and forming the government under Winston Churchill despite narrowly losing the popular vote to Labour (48% to 48.8%).
But if you examine the result in the House Of Commons Library the numbers don’t add up, and we can’t figure out why.
Aidan on A Matter Of Declinature: “It’s an intemperate response Northcode, a childish response would be, for example, claiming you have won an argument you haven’t…” Jul 17, 06:13
Young Lochinvar on A Matter Of Declinature: “Powerful stuff. Quite illuminating that she calls him a “coward hiding behind Parliamentary Privilege” while she herself pays a lawyer…” Jul 17, 03:00
Cynicus on A Matter Of Declinature: ““her most evil act was stitching up Alex Salmond to hide the truth” about Murrell’s crimes.” Lying Nicola Sturgeon destroyed…” Jul 17, 01:07
Young Lochinvar on A Matter Of Declinature: “HMcH @ 6.03 Even by your standards “old boy” over in the Scotchland Office that is a particularly pointless, smug…” Jul 17, 01:01
Cynicus on A Matter Of Declinature: ““ Dug wi a bone…” ============== But NOT a Wee Ginger one” Jul 17, 00:40
James on A Matter Of Declinature: “Aw, Northy- dinna be too hard on Poor Adrian. He’s just trying to join in.” Jul 16, 22:33
James on A Matter Of Declinature: “Well said, Alf. Don’t let these plants grind you down. Their orders are divert, distract, and divide. All day, every…” Jul 16, 22:29
robertkknight on A Matter Of Declinature: “Certainly didn’t miss and hit the wall.” Jul 16, 22:24
Alf Baird on A Matter Of Declinature: ““So why don’t you fess up to what this means” It means the ‘union’ aw you folks keep floggin is…” Jul 16, 21:48
Northcode on A Matter Of Declinature: ““Right, well the fact that you can’t fucking read doesn’t stop you posting endless drivel hour after hour, day after…” Jul 16, 21:47
sarah on A Matter Of Declinature: “Thanks, Dan, for posting the link at 6.22 to David Davis in the Commons today calling Sturgeon a liar and…” Jul 16, 21:41
100%Yes on A Matter Of Declinature: “Comments are simply priceless, thank you all made me lol. Its only the start.” Jul 16, 21:33
Mark Beggan on A Matter Of Declinature: “Aberdeen university totally distancing themselves from the freak Herbert. Mr Heather Herbert is the pinnacle of Leftwing policy. The fruits…” Jul 16, 21:17
Southernbystander on A Matter Of Declinature: “Almost everyone is blaming the manager! But not because he is German. Football fans always blame the manager, for everything.…” Jul 16, 21:04
Aidan on A Matter Of Declinature: “Right, well the fact that you can’t fucking read doesn’t stop you posting endless drivel hour after hour, day after…” Jul 16, 21:02
Mark Beggan on A Matter Of Declinature: “Who’s been feeding the Leftys? They’ve all went Legal International all of a sudden. Criteria being recognised, Determination of the…” Jul 16, 20:45
Northcode on A Matter Of Declinature: ““In Robert Black’s essay, the following is all one paragraph.” Christ Almighty! Do I need to explain EVERYTHING to you…” Jul 16, 20:43
Aidan on A Matter Of Declinature: “Well DuckDuckGo AI is about as reliable as it sounds. “Scotland is recognized as meeting the criteria for Non-Self-Governing Territories…” Jul 16, 20:18
Red on A Matter Of Declinature: “I’m sure the United Nations will help us. They love white people.” Jul 16, 20:17
Aidan on A Matter Of Declinature: “In Robert Black’s essay, the following is all one paragraph: The numbering (by regnal year and chapter number in The…” Jul 16, 20:08
100%Yes on A Matter Of Declinature: “I put in “Scotland un c-24” duckduckgo.com AI stated Scotland is recognized as meeting the criteria for Non-Self-Governing Territories by…” Jul 16, 19:58
Northcode on A Matter Of Declinature: “I didn’t read your comment, AI Dan… your paragraphs are too long and I could tell just by the picture…” Jul 16, 19:42
Hatey McHateface on A Matter Of Declinature: “Fascinating stuff, Willie. Can we expect your justification for asserting that Epstein was above the law any time soon? Seriously,…” Jul 16, 19:37
Hatey McHateface on A Matter Of Declinature: “So why don’t you fess up to what this means, Alf? I’m guessing you’re pushing this line as you believe…” Jul 16, 19:31
Aidan on A Matter Of Declinature: “Does Robert Black say anywhere that the union is a constitutional impossibility and that therefore the acts of union are…” Jul 16, 19:30
Hatey McHateface on A Matter Of Declinature: “@Aidan You too have a problem. Your problem is that despite all the evidence to the contrary, you appear to…” Jul 16, 19:20
Aidan on A Matter Of Declinature: ““Dunlop is historically wrong, but ‘right’ within the UK’s legal system because the UK legal system defines its own truth.…” Jul 16, 19:13
Alf Baird on A Matter Of Declinature: “You are making things up, Aidan. Professor Black, “looking as a lawyer with fresh eyes” believes the UK ‘union’ to…” Jul 16, 19:05
Aidan on A Matter Of Declinature: “The problem is Northcode is that your lack of knowledge and analytical ability is combined with an absurd level of…” Jul 16, 18:58
