Disclaimer first: as we always say in situations like this, BOOKMAKERS’ ODDS ARE NOT PREDICTIONS. They’re based in significant part on the level of wagers placed, which means that you could affect the odds simply by making a large bet, which of course wouldn’t actually change the likelihood of a particular candidate winning.
So with that proviso, we present the following information purely for interest.
…which we felt it important to preserve for posterity lest anything happen to it. We’d charitably blame it all on the Telegraph, who made it, were it not for the fact that the Scottish Conservatives have posted it on their own Facebook page.
This is how today’s BBC News summed up (fairly accurately) the two main themes of last night’s Question Time special with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn:
May managed to largely get away with her party’s abysmal track record of brutal cuts and austerity, while Corbyn was made very uncomfortable by a howling mob of angry, terrifyingly bloodthirsty old white men over Labour’s policy on Trident.
And while Corbyn’s position on the nuclear deterrent is idiotic and makes him an easy target for opponents, the main reason for the differing outcomes is language.
We’re being told that this Tory leaflet, where Stephanie Smith is described as “Ruth Davidson’s candidate” for Edinburgh South, is standard across the whole country.
…that will satisfy the Unionist parties. Last night Ruth Davidson told STV viewers that even getting more than 50% of the vote in a general election wouldn’t give the SNP a mandate to pursue their manifesto policies.
She was echoing the words of Kezia Dugdale just over a year ago:
So that’s clear. Davidson has reversed her previous view. There is now no peaceful democratic avenue by which the people of Scotland could express the wish for a second referendum which the two main Unionist parties would accept. They have EXPLICITLY said, in full public view, that they would reject any democratic mandate.
She’d insisted explicitly several times that a Jeremy Corbyn administration WOULD block a new indyref, even after being shown a video clip of Corbyn from earlier in the day saying he wouldn’t, and she repeatedly urged readers not to listen to the party’s leader and to instead go and look at the Labour manifesto.
Today’s Daily Record has a swipe at Jeremy Corbyn for, well, let’s call them “mixed messages” over a second independence referendum. It suggests his Scottish branch manager Kezia Dugdale would have “her head in her hands” over his latest comments, which is a bit rich considering Dugdale’s own history on the subject.
And since her headline boast when she took over as leader of the North British office was that people would know exactly what Labour stood for (and indeed she spent all of the weekend’s keynote Sunday Politics interview listing all the things she’d been very very clear about), we thought we’d have a recap and see how that was going.
Apologies in advance about this, folks, but it’s driving us mad. We got into a Twitter argument with some Tory balloon last night and this morning, and to cut a long story short it got us looking at the 1951 UK general election result.
History records it as a Tory majority, securing just over half of the Parliamentary seats (321 of 625) and forming the government under Winston Churchill despite narrowly losing the popular vote to Labour (48% to 48.8%).
But if you examine the result in the House Of Commons Library the numbers don’t add up, and we can’t figure out why.
GM on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “Enough to make a man smash up his ain hoose in blind rahe that shite Fearghas. The ‘Outer Party’ are…” Sep 15, 23:13
GM on Fear And Favour: “https://x.com/Fiona_Higgins_/status/2098130728085021081” Sep 15, 23:01
Northcode on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “Breastplate, I think you’re conflating two different things here, and that’s where the confusion comes from. The UN list doesn’t…” Sep 15, 22:59
PhilM on Fear And Favour: “Does anyone know what this guy is on about?” Sep 15, 22:51
Gav on Fear And Favour: “Thank Christ someone has the balls and gumption to take a stand.” Sep 15, 22:49
Hatey McHateface on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “Chin up, Chas. Astronomers believe that eventually the sun will expand to engulf the Earth. (Nobody will be talking about…” Sep 15, 22:42
Hatey McHateface on Like Responsible Citizens Do: ““I’m sorry if this is confusing for you” Well, it was a bit over-complicated, BP. I prefer Alf’s explanation (not…” Sep 15, 22:39
Mike on Fear And Favour: “It’s a polite way of telling you to fu£k right off you little pleb. How dare you ask the police…” Sep 15, 22:30
Jay on Fear And Favour: “Will someone please post a link to the letter, dated 15th August, from Deputy Chief Constable?” Sep 15, 22:28
Insider on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “Breastplate @ 9:51 Give up son ! This has been clearly explained to you several times, but it’s obviously well…” Sep 15, 22:16
Knuckle_Heid on Fear And Favour: “I’m definitely contributing. This is deadly serious and I want to see where it leads. And I sincerely hope the…” Sep 15, 21:55
Breastplate on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “No CC, You still don’t understand. By your logic there are no colonies unless certified by the UN and these…” Sep 15, 21:51
McDuff on Fear And Favour: “Count me in rev when the time comes. I can’t believe this is the Scotland I grew up in.” Sep 15, 21:32
Carol Neill on Fear And Favour: “I’ll contribute , in fact I’ll contribute double if James and the learned professor would stop spouting the same old…” Sep 15, 21:23
Aidan on Fear And Favour: ““Hopefully my multiple posts of / from Westminster parliament site will help Stu going forward in understanding the structure of…” Sep 15, 21:06
sog on Fear And Favour: “I was a member at the time, I donated on a credit card which no longer exists. I binned the…” Sep 15, 21:05
Aidan on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “Well if both Scotland’s population AND GDP were both double what they are today in your mythical scenario, then GDP…” Sep 15, 21:05
Willie on Fear And Favour: “A Judicial Review perchance. But what country in the world allows it courts to destroy.its court case records. Burning down…” Sep 15, 21:02
James Che on Fear And Favour: “Scotland is a republic as it has no monarch under the Sovereign people of Scotland. And its parliament is not…” Sep 15, 20:53
James Che on Fear And Favour: “Hopefully my multiple posts of / from Westminster parliament site will help Stu going forward in understanding the structure of…” Sep 15, 20:47
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on Fear And Favour: “Finding coherent YouTube summaries of Agamben is frustratingly difficult. I think he is shy of interviews, which doesn’t help. The…” Sep 15, 20:16
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “Most question marks above are deceased bullet points which clearly didn’t survive their hyper-jump journey through cyberspace…” Sep 15, 20:04
JScott on Fear And Favour: “Seriously , this is what they come up with ? A political party admits it has spent money gathered for…” Sep 15, 20:03
Spartan 117 on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “Dry your eyes Alf. Guess what, people have different opinions and think and vote differently to you. I’d have thought…” Sep 15, 19:11
Ian on Fear And Favour: “I will contribute and hope the judicial review is successful, but I can only feel that it will be nobbled…” Sep 15, 19:11
agentx on Fear And Favour: “You have made 6 out of the 28 posts on here so far and you are complaining?” Sep 15, 19:02
Hatey McHateface on Like Responsible Citizens Do: ““The Moon is made of cheese” is my all time favourite. Odd that no progress has been made since. You’d…” Sep 15, 18:55
Alf Baird on Like Responsible Citizens Do: ““Stuff that happened in the 18th Century has no relevance whatsoever in 2026” Thon 1707 annexation and ‘union’ hoax haes…” Sep 15, 18:34
Hatey McHateface on Like Responsible Citizens Do: “Sure, Alf, claim you’re (we’re) enslaved, then when challenged about it, serve up another dollop of differently flavoured mince. Alldiss…” Sep 15, 18:33
James Che on Fear And Favour: “Interfering with posts and delaying posts,” Sep 15, 18:21
