Wings Over Scotland

When we commissioned our second Panelbase poll, we asked Edinburgh University’s highly respected Professor of Public Policy, Politics and International Relations, James Mitchell, to give our questions the once-over beforehand to ensure they weren’t unfair or leading. The resulting poll’s neutrality was widely praised. 

We thought it might therefore be interesting to get his expert professional opinion on the recent “Better Together” poll by YouGov, and he very kindly obliged.

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Yesterday the Labour Party’s representatives in the Scottish Parliament voted against a motion to provide free school meals to all Scottish children in Primary 1 to Primary 3, and to increase childcare funding for two-year-olds. They did so barely 48 hours after angrily demanding that the Scottish Government provide better childcare – an issue which Labour had explicitly tied into the independence debate by using an opinion poll commissioned by the “Better Together” campaign.

Fortunately for Scots, Labour is a totally impotent force in the Scottish Parliament, and its opinions and actions there ultimately count for nothing. Thanks to the SNP’s majority, the motion passed and hungry children living in poverty will get at least one hot, nutritious meal a day, without the stigma of being marked out as poor.

But after the blanket media coverage of Labour’s calls over child welfare, you’d expect that the arithmetic of the vote would merit at least a passing mention when Scotland’s press reported the story. Wouldn’t you?

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It should come as a surprise to nobody that yet another senior Labour figure has come out for independence. It’s more of a surprise that anyone should be surprised.

Much of the credit for that must go to the “Better Together” campaign, who with the extensive help of the Scottish media have done an excellent job of portraying the independence campaign as an SNP-only obsession. Yet that picture belies the real benefits that independence can bring the Labour Party in Scotland.

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We were as perplexed as anyone by the bizarre YouGov poll commissioned by “Better Together” and released today, which reveals that the status quo they’re so strenuously campaigning for is the least popular constitutional option among Scots. As there’s no “more powers” option on the referendum ballot paper, and the official No campaign can neither define any such option nor pledge to implement one, it’s hard to understand what they get from asking a three-choice question about a two-choice vote.

Indeed, the survey’s result – 32% “more devolution”, 30% independence, 29% status quo – actually gives a higher Yes figure than some recent two-option polls. So what on Earth can the No camp be thinking?

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It’s one of the weirder aspects of the independence debate that the No campaign constantly shrieks about how an independent Scotland might run a deficit, as if that was some sort of unusual and terrifying state unique to Scotland. So we thought it might be handy to keep this clip from today’s BBC Breakfast here for future reference.

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“Better Together” website, May 2013:

“In 500 days Scots will answer the most important question we have ever been asked. On all the big questions – on currency, on the EU, on pensions – the nationalists have shown they don’t have the answers to the questions that we and people all over Scotland are asking. 

Today we ask over 500 more questions. This list is by no means exhaustive – instead, it aims to demonstrate the range of different questions that still need answered. Many more questions already exist and as more of the big issues are debated more and more questions will arise. That’s why we will continue to ask the difficult questions.

It’s time we got some answers.”

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Awesome start on healing those divisions, Johann.

(From today’s Scottish Sun.)

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“Gary Gibbon on Politics”, Channel 4 website, today:

“Peter Kellner of YouGov [..] says Scottish independence would wipe out the chances of majority Labour government for at least a generation and conceivably longer.”

Does he? Is he an idiot or something?

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There are now just fewer than nine months to go until the referendum that will decide Scotland’s future. But in those 260 or so days, there will be one that more than any other is likely to shape the outcome, and curiously it’s one in which few people in Scotland will actually be very interested.

The last elections to the European Parliament, in 2009, saw a turnout in Scotland of under 29%, below even the dismal UK figure of 34%. We have no reason to believe this year’s will be massively different, at least not on the northern side of the border.

But the election, which takes place (on 22 May) almost exactly halfway between now and the referendum, will have a huge impact on UK politics, and the corresponding knock-on effect could decide which way Scotland swings in September.

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Okay. We’re done warming up.

Time to go for it properly.

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What a week it’s been for respect. Here’s today’s Telegraph:

Maybe when you’re on holiday it doesn’t count or something.

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We don’t normally post stuff straight out of SNP press releases, but we’re about to have some sort of breakdown today on account of the appalling Windows 8, and this is some powerful polling data, so we hope you’ll forgive us a bit of a cut-and-paste job.

The Nats commissioned a poll this month from Panelbase of 1,011 people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland, which found overwhelming support for the rest of the UK sharing Sterling and the Common Travel Area with an independent Scotland.

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