The value bet
To pass the time on (praise be to Baby Jeebus) the last day of the Holyrood election campaign, we thought we’d do a catch-up summary of all the seat projections we could find from last month and this month. Here it is.
Now, as it happens we think the potential seat ranges are significantly wider. There are so many factors of uncertainty that while there’s no credible doubt who’s going to be the biggest party, we reckon SNP seats could potentially be anywhere from about 47 to 68 (most likely the upper part of that range), with corresponding ramifications below.
But there’s one potentially interesting thing in that bottom half.
Polling’s been so all-over-the-place that there is no settled consensus about which orders the runners-up will finish in. Here’s a summary of the projections:
REFORM
8 x 2nd
4 x 3rd
LABOUR
2 x 2nd
8 x 3rd
1 x 4th
1 x 5th
GREENS
2 x 2nd
5 x 4th
3 x 5th
2 x 6th
LIB DEMS
5 x 4th
2 x 5th
5 x 6th
TORIES
3 x 4th
4 x 5th
5 x 6th
Reform look like favourites for the silver medal, and no projection has put them lower than 3rd. Labour have ranged from 2nd-5th, the Greens from 2nd-6th, with the Lib Dems and Tories not expected to do better than 4th.
Which makes these numbers rather startling.
The gulf in odds between Labour/Reform and the Greens is frankly astonishing. If you bet £100 on Reform to come second you’d make £50 profit. Put the same amount on Labour and if they took the silver you’d be £150 ahead. But stick it on the Greens and get lucky and you’d net yourself a tasty £12,500 windfall.
Extraordinarily, the Greens are at far longer odds to come second than the SNP, and there is NO chance of the SNP coming second.
(SkyBet’s odds of them winning are 1/200, meaning that if you staked your £100 on them to get the most seats, you’d make a whopping profit of 50p.)
Heck, the Greens coming second (125/1) is at almost the same odds as Alba winning the election (150/1), and Alba don’t even EXIST.
Readers, we don’t think the Greens will be runners-up at this election, and we certainly PRAY that they won’t. But the margins are so slim between all the non-SNP parties, and the polls so febrile, that it’s definitely not beyond the bounds of possibility, and at those absolutely doolally odds it might be worth popping a couple of quid on it just to cheer yourself up if it happens.
.
[EDIT 6.05PM: SkyBet have now taken down their “2nd place betting” page, so it may all have been a terrible mistake.]
Tactical voting could turn all current predictions upside down.
What are the odds of Alliance to Liberate Scotland winning a bucketload of seats? Pollsters and broadcasters have been doing their level-best to hide the very existence of this option for independence supporters and have largely succeeded.
What are the odds of the Alliance winning a “bucketload of seats?”
Zero.
Better question: What are the odds of Alliance constituency candidates all losing their 500 pound deposits, by not getting 5% of the vote?
What are the chances of you voting Tory? (100%).
The excuses are starting early for the Alliance’s upcoming terrible performance, you’ll hear a lot about “media blackouts” “d-notices” and other such paranoia over the next few days.
James will do his normal dirty protest in the polling booth no doubt. Some elderly election volunteer will have to spend their afternoon clearing it up.
Up early, Adrian? Must be cauld in that curryvan. You should do some spooning.
The Greens coming second would be the nightmare of nightmares.
I mean, they even make the SNP look good. Another nightmare scenario: Greens come second, but Reform comes first. So the government would be formed by the Greens and probably SNP and/or Labour. The SNP coming first (again) doesn’t seem quite so bad, does it?
Give us an idea of Swinneys option if
A) he gets an overall majority
B) he gets a minority gov supported by greens
Whats his next move
Same either way: fuck-all.
‘I took a poll recently and 100% of campers were very angry when their tent collapsed’!
Tent collapsed eh, well, that’s poles for you.
The tent covered all the issues?!
It wasn’t connected to the grass roots!
Alliance to Liberate Scotland don’t register on polls and don’t register on betting odds.
How on earth could Scottish voters consider voting for Reform?
71 years of rejecting the Tories it looks like many are ready to vote Reform,
they are the Tory Party on Ketamine.
Its funds are from Billionaires and Bankers who paid for the Indy Ref and Brexit lies.
A Party akin to Trumpland and who promised to cut Scotland’s Budget
A Farage English puppet is the last thing Scotland needs in Holyrood.
How on earth could Scottish voters consider voting for the SNP? 10 years of lies, mismanagement, theft, sexual deviation, bullying, intimidation, foreign criminals, woke ideology and the attempted dehumanising of women?
Better question: How on earth could Scottish voters consider voting for the parties that have misgoverned them this century?
SNP, Greens, Lib Dems, Labour, Conservatives have all been tested, and all failed.
Let me see…
Is it cause two of them actually attempt to serve Scots & they’re not genocidal peado apologists?
Just a guess!
Cheer yourselves up, folks, by listening to Eva Comrie and others on today’s Barrhead Boy podcast.
Then tomorrow go and vote Alliance on the Regional list ballot. They might not all be perfect but at least they are real workers for independence. They are battling away to get a chance to put pressure on the SNP about restoring independence. I’d love to see and hear them in Holyrood.
We hve been an independent Country in Scotlant since 1707,
Whats wrong?
You want to pretend that your in a unionist and Colonialist and theres a fight to gain an independent Scotland.
Sorry can’t help willing blinked ignorance. If you want to be a Colonialist ad unionist that is self inflicted and not helpful to the rest of the people of Scotland.
Most people retaining that thought without research are willing themselves into oblivion or paid.as most of the political parties running in so called Scottish election are indeed registered as parties of the Colony holders down south,
Scottish elections is a Colony joke thats old now, three hundred yeas old.on Scotland.
Struggling for independence from what?
We were legally and politically given it in 1707 and 1800
Why keep the pretence going?
I foresee Scotlands independent country voting for a further three hundred years of Colonial rule and missing the open goal.
And I would place money on that.
So you will be able to collect your winnings in 2326.
Did you know that Statues of the realm of England do not contain any Scottish or Irish Statues.
Even after the supposed union, up until after Queen anne’s death in 1714.
That statues the realm of England did not include Scotland. Or Scotlands statues
“James” @ 10:45
What the hell are you gibbering about now ?
Statues of who ?
One thing people should realise is that the polls can also be bent; he who pays the piper – one trick is to fool people into voting against their own interests by voting tactically, but in error. Basically, vote for some party which at least is going to provide something of what you want – I would only vote tactically if I was absolutely sure it would work, and the person needing removal was an active source of evil on the planet. And mind – all parties had to start somewhere, all started at zero, but in these internet/social media times, support can be built, fast.
Whatever you do try to vote for indy, in some way, and against the union.
Let’s remind ourselves what a shit encrusted gang of usurious paedophiles rule us, and what incompetent cunts the english all are.
“concentrate on the national and class enemy” to reach political enlightenment. Let’s remind ourselves of this regime’s absolute fucking cuntery, you don’t need to go looking for examples.
Something I read the other day :
link to archive.ph
Why-TF would the UK – which is fucking skint remember with a budget black hole etc – want to get in on this rancidly corrupt piece of nonsense; it is self sabotage – and they already gave 12B to these fucking crooks
this long running theme – a fucked up all fur coat and no knickers maxxed out credit card mortgage and remortgage all the assets operation … with a bankrupt pretence of its own importance going back to being an empire, once, but not being able to let go of the idea, psychologically – is at root, the base cause of much of the UKs problems; if the UK just tried to be a normal country and do what is best for its citizens …
– the scottish oil and gas made it worse; it was like one of those dumb lottery winners who spraffs it up a wall and is back on the streets in 5 years.
reasons why indy is not a romantic dream but a matter of survival; the UK is fucked, and pretty soon it won’t be able to do the basics anymore, then we will be on the hook to fix it all, or rather our assets will be pillaged like never before
food – england imports over 40% of its food; it can do this because the pound is over valued (why is that? guess) – a strong pound also lets the rubes buy tons of cheap toys from amazon, made in china – this gives the proles a feeling of wealth and the notion they have a good standard of living
energy – desperate; trying to hook up all of Scotland to keep them going, plus building nuke stations they don’t know how
water – they can’t do this any more; they privatised the system and ended up with high prices and with water that had literal shit in it
security – the armed forces are a joke; and when mass insurrection happens, there will not be enough people to contain it. NB the UK has spent enormous amounts of money on weapons and systems – but nothing of the useful variety; it is all about “gucci kit”, stuff so expensive it is there to look good, not to be used, and the overall point is to maximise profits for the arms companies. Out in the real world, we use 100K Sea Viper missiles to shoot down 2K houthi drones, and when the ships run out of missiles, they have to go back to port. Meanwhile, London is stab city and shoplifting is simply allowed.
flooding – its going to get worse; the SE is one giant flood plain. The money needed to build flood defences will be colossal.
multicultural mass immigration – forget the boats, what is coming legally in the 2030s is another 10M; they aren’t civic nationalists and they don’t read Locke, they have another identity, another book, and they have their own ideas, none of which involves “becoming english”
england is fucked up “over populated, under resourced”; and what is the remaining unfucked up place “underpopulated, over resourced” – Scotland – say hello to all the little englanders and the new Scot BAMS they bring with them … or not. Why not – GET THEM ALL TO FUCK – and be an independent nation and do what is best for your people, with your resources, for a fucking change.
You would think – someone, somewhere in that vast civil service – has run the numbers (and they do have the numbers, numbers on everything) – would turn round and say “hey, wait a minute … ” – but the trouble is the political elite/establishment, even most of the middle class live in a bubble, isolated from the (bad) consequences of anything they do, so they never see what the country is like. So problems can never be addressed and thus, never solved. Politics is not about anything real anymore, it is about the delusions of fetishists.
There is much to be hopeful for – England is dying and islam will kill it – all you need to do is leave the room before the flames reach the fire escape door.
” someone, somewhere in that vast civil service – has run the numbers (and they do have the numbers, numbers on everything) – would turn round and say “hey, wait a minute … ”
I’ve been listening to a few lectures about this barmy mindset & the reason no one says ‘hey wait a minute…’ is because they’re protecting their own status within the group. They go along because everyone else is going along & they smack down, not up. It’s the poor ppls fault. If only they didn’t exist, or worked harder. Over time this usually ends with rampant corruption cause if no one above them cares then they won’t either & they’re soon all be on the take..
Then there’s the section of the working class/poor who cheer on Capitalists/top 10% like they are gonna share their profits & proceeds with them personally LOL! Pointing out they’re being shafted is met with a rabid response defending them like you’ve just insulted their best buddies & entire family.
Platos cave…some people would rather just remain dumb cause they like where they are.
As for the Nazi Mafia, it’s cause they’re all on the take with the weapons industry.
Like I posted not so long ago,
Even if you spell it out, supply the information, point the unionist in the right direction,…
Bless them for their entertainment value and display of ignorance in their returned communications that everyone reads.
They Hang onto a theoretical belief without evidence that they are unable to disprove when put to the test and have had years to Correct,
I like the blinked unionist ad Colonial mind set that still try to maintain of the the union theory while England and old blighty sinks below the waves,
Of course once Englands gone down then their theory of a union goes with it.
You haven’t done any of those things. You haven’t provided any evidence in particular, other than rather generously telling us we can look it up in “records” although of course which records and where they can be found remains a mystery.
Should we all seek out your truthful “GERS” bible, charlatan man?
You are nothing but a colonial snake oil salesman; hoping some gullible Scotch fools will fall for your copious bullshit.
Not you James, you aren’t capable of understanding a subject like GERS and you’re too stubborn to try. Thankfully you’re completely insignificant and have no power so it doesn’t really matter.
This is a party political broadcast on behalf of:
The Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party (ATLS).
First, it should be noted by indigenous Scots that today’s election is not a real election for them because Scotland is NOT a democracy; Scotland is a colony and the two (democracies and colonies) are very, very different one from the other.
Think about it… how could any election held in Scotland deliver real democratic choice for the Scots when everything in Scotland is controlled by England, a foreign power?
The ATLS has only a small part to play in today’s final act of England’s piss-take-Scottish-parliament panto season piss-take show, but it would be a great win for Scotland and the Scots if even just a couple of ATLS candidates were elected to serve the Scots at Holyrood.
Just think of all the fun to be had with a few smart and sentient Scots-supporting minds running rings around the thick, brain-dead grifters who generally stink out Scotland’s ‘parliament’ with their Anglo-stench.
And so, to that end, here are some tactical voting tips that might be of help to those indigenous Scots seeking their liberation from English oppression…
1. Any indigenous Scot who throws away their vote on the Westminster controlled SNP is a thick cunt.
2. Any indigenous Scot who votes against their own folk by giving their support to Westminster-backed English carpetbagging outfits (including the SNP now) operating illegally in Scotland and that are, most likely, partially financed by the English state is a treicherous thick cunt.
3. Any indigenous Scot who votes for any party other than the ATLS is a thick cunt.
4. Switch it on, you indigenous Scots; your brains, I mean… even if it’s just for today.
5. Wake up, for fuck’s sake, and turn on that thing between your ears that has been running in standby mode your entire lives.
6. Don’t be a cunt… vote for Scotland, vote for the Scots, vote for your lives and the lives of your children, vote for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland.
If you are an indigenous Scot you surely must know that voting for ATLS makes the most sense for you; and if you don’t… well, you’re a thick cunt and probably should have been born an English instead.
That was a party political broadcast on behalf of;
The Alliance to Liberate Scotland Party (ATLS).
Vote for ATLS and demonstrate to all that you have wasted your vote and are a thick cunt……..just like Northclown.
Hmm, not really such a tricky decision as to who to vote for after comparing the worth of content generated by “Chas” and Craig Murray…
link to craigmurray.org.uk
Craig Murray – a guy who’s never met a piece of “R” propaganda that he doesn’t like. He will cause untold damage and embarrassment to the independence movement if elected.
Each Alliance to Liberate Scotland candidate is worth at least a dozen useless UK-vetted SNP colonial administrators.
I have to say, Chas, that your use of the ‘cunt’ word just doesn’t have the same rhetorical impact as does mine…. it feels weak and slightly forced with no real wit behind it to drive home whatever point you were hoping to make with this shallow comment.
You copy my rhetorical style because you are incapable of originating your own, I suspect.
Your attack is spectacularly ineffective… but much worse is your use of eight dots instead of three to simulate in writing the act of ‘becoming silent’; the ‘pausing of breath’ before launching your attack in the form of a childish twisting of my moniker into what you, mistakenly, think of as a witty and humorous put down.
Three dots is the required number when using Aposiopesis to signal literary silence; three, I tell you. . . and not a single dot more.
Aye Alf, check out AIdan there, desperately jumping straight in and trying to denigrate and tarnish Craig.
Ask oneself jist what has AIdan accomplished for the benefit of Scotland and her people when compared to Craig, or any of the other ATLS candidates.
Folk can browse through past articles on Craig’s site and see the interesting array of content, and then you can CTRL F search AIdan’s stuff on here and see he/it is nothing but a time-wasting, discussion trashing troll.
link to craigmurray.org.uk
AI Dan is English.
He doesn’t have a vote here & it’s only the English that are R-phobs. They grew up indoctrinated fae birth about them. No one knows why. They won WW2. You’d think they’d be grateful they still have England because of them. Oh, wait, it’s cause they’ve all that land that shouldn’t belong to them. It comes with an endless supply of natural resources too. It’s a shame not to balkanise it.
R has a good opinion of Scotland. Both ancient lands with rich histories. He supports Indyref & the right to self determination. They also didn’t interfere in indyref either despite the English begging them to. That’s strange innit? The alleged King of interference didn’t interfere…
No one is interested in yer phobias. Look to who the English are currently cosying upto, literal Unelected Nazis & war crims, before you cast aspersions towards Craig Murray.
& No, he won’t cause untold damage to the independence movement. He knows how you Britnat feckers work & is a wealth of knowledge. He’d be excellent in Holyrood. He’d boot out the M15 plant too. So vote Craig folks!
Best of luck Craig!!
“Best of luck Craig!!”
Seconded, and a good comment well said, Geri.
If an accurate summary of Craig Murray’s blog is “tarnishing” then that speaks volumes doesn’t it Dan. Is Craig not proud of his role as a leading advocate for the war crimes and human rights abuses of “R”?
“R” is a good option if you don’t value things like liberty and freedom of expression. It’s really sad that someone like you uses their freedom of expression in a free democratic country to call for the repression and murder of people in other countries. I’d guess this is all a bit of a game for you since you spend 100% of your time on the internet.
They’re big on tuberculosis though, don’t know if that is something we want in a future independent Scotland?
Doesn’t do irony either, it seems.
Another poxy unionist warmongering troll.
But nicely shot down in flames. Again. Never learns.
Next.
AIdan says:”I’d guess this is all a bit of a game for you since you spend 100% of your time on the internet.”
Eh, that’ll be yet mair pish fae yersel then. I only check in on t’internet occasionally.
Too busy with all manner of other more interesting stuff like building renovation, planting out the garden with this season’s crops, and past few weekends have been out testing the rally car I helped rebuild and improve over winter. First event for that is this weekend.
And the following weekend is a race weekend for another car I’ve been carrying out a gearbox conversion on which involves all manner of critical aspects to be engineered out in the design of bespoke components on the milling machine and lathe.
We’ll have to use imported fuel now due to closing of Grangemouth… Though I read INEOS are partnering with Shell on some project elsewhere…
And just back from a mountain bike ride to polling station. I did a Swinney and redacted the fuck out of my Constituency ballot with a marker pen, to the point I nearly passed out with the xylene fumes, lolz, then ATLS got an X on the Regional ballot.
@Dan that comment was aimed at Geri not you, you at least seem to be one of the few BTL contributors with a presence in the real world . .
Are there 2 CM’s?
The famous one is a cheerleader for the tunnel-skulking, lassie-torturing ham ass scum.
“That is why I urge people to vote to put real radical firebrands into the Scottish parliament, like myself, Tommy Sheridan, Eva Comrie and many others.
You can vote for the Alliance to Liberate Scotland in many constituencies, and on all regional lists.” – Craig Murray
My prediction is they’ll lose their deposit in every single constituency they contest, having garnered an absolutely derisory vote in each and every instance.
We can revisit this post tomorrow to compare notes, Northcode. 🙂
& the advice to those who don’t have one on the constituency list?
If there isn’t an ATLS candidate to vote for on the constituency list you can vote on the regional ballot and leave the constituency ballot blank.
Doing so will not invalidate your regional vote. Each ballot paper is counted independently.
I was going to suggest that as an alternative to voting ATLS, if there isn’t an ATLS candidate standing in your constituency, to vote for an ISP candidate instead, but I don’t think there are any ISP candidates standing in the constituency list as far as I’m aware.
Also, instead of leaving it blank you can spoil the constituency ballot and still cast a valid vote on the regional ballot.
Your regional vote will still be counted normally. Just make sure you put both papers into the ballot box.
You can leave the constituency ballot completely blank — but you should still put it into the ballot box.
If you’re leaving the constituency ballot unmarked or are spoiling it:
1: Fold it up
2: Put it in the ballot box along with your regional ballot
Your regional vote will still be valid and counted.
A blank ballot is just recorded as unmarked for that contest.
That’ll be because the British State rig elections.
I found it hard to believe the results of the last one too. There was absolutely no way in hell Alex Salmond didn’t win any seats. I put it down to Sturgeon & the SC case gathering all those #2 votes just as a back up.
They’ve no tricks now to waste a million votes on.
Just cast my two votes, Northy. Unless you were standing under another name you weren’t on my ballots, or I’d have seen you alright.
I did however have a couple of Alliance candidates to go for.
” Unless you were standing under another name you weren’t on my ballots.”
My name is Legion, for we are many – and every one of us a Scot (or a Pict if preferred… same thing now after all this time living and loving together).
You might think the Scotti assimilated the Picts, Sven, but in truth, it was the other way about.
Loving your Pictish support for ATLS, Northy.
OK if I gatecrash the wake on Saturday?
(That’s a rhetorical question 🙂 )
Thanks Northcode!
It lets others know too x
Wilma’s mates in the 77th doing the postal count again this time? Or is that just referendums?
Yes that’s right James, it was … THEM!!!
“ooo-oOOooOOO-ooOOHHH!!!”?
Get the Bacofoil headgear ready, DEFCON1!
(Alternatively, y’know maybe the source material presented by the Indy side at that time – what with them having the burden of proof as the proposed major departure from the status quo – left A LOT to be desired eh? Easy for you to say, but many voters had jobs, careers, pensions, property, kids, future prospects to consider. Worse still, there’s been bugger all of note since, substantive, credible evidence-wise. Still, sour grapes and conspiracy theories, eh).
The three yoon stooges are all oot the day eh?
Funny, Phil Boswell has 2 or 3 returning officer contacts who confirm the postal vote was indeed interfered with in 2014.
Just saying like.
But hey, when did unionist trolls like you ever let facts interfere with your endless pish posts?
Tick tock.
Oh aye does he, and this information was provided with supporting evidence to the police who arrested and prosecuted the people involved? Or is this more made up nonsense.
“Tick Tock”, Wally Walrus?
That’s ane o the fragrant Geri’s signature lines.
Just how many identities are you posting under?
They bite every time. Bless.
Comical.
“Tick tock”
Yeah, but that’s enough about your source material, eh pal.
Tool.
Aye James,
Now that wouldn’t be deliberately interfering in another countries elections now would it?
I couldn’t give a shiny shite what Mayor’s they vote for in another country today, but just look at them nosepoking again into things that don’t concern them, in an entirely different country.
Curtain twitching fuckwits.
“a shiny shite what Mayor’s they vote”
What Mayor’s what, Geri?
Such a tiny little thing, yet completely and irrevocably beyond your comprehension.
And you think we Scots are listening to an ignoramus like you!
“I couldn’t give a shiny shite what Mayor’s they vote for in another country today,”
Er what?
What are you even blathering on about now, fool? Hot on the heels of pearl-clutching over the apparel of arresting officers at the scene of that mad knifeman bloke, or are you still grizzling about that one as well? (The rest of us normal, non “extreme lefties” give no fucks btw).
Pfft, honestly. “Team Nutcase” is taking one hell of a beating today, but methinks it’s going to get worse still in a day or two.
Here’s another fish fer ye, James.
Enjoy, but mind, baith flippers above the table!
Hae a haddie this time, Wally.
And keep that free flipper still. Nae flapping doon below.
Just been to vote – the ballot boxes were quite full when I was putting my voting papers in. This was surprising in my area.
Excellent.
Boxes full here as well.
Hopefully ATLS will do weel!
Soar Alba.