Wings Over Scotland celebrates its 8th birthday this Thursday. And it looks as though we just might be in for a genuinely unexpected surprise party.
Because very suddenly, through sheer dumb luck, and for the first time in over three years, we can actually see a tantalisingly almost-viable route by which the SNP could, almost entirely accidentally, lead us to independence.
It’s a long time, apparently. Because while a general election on 12 December would be a “barking mad” idea according to the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford on Thursday, having one on 9 December instead is genius.
So in a month in which this site has been extensively screamed at by SNP diehards as the work of a “traitor” and an “MI5 plant” for suggesting that maybe the SNP could vote with the Tories (or perhaps just abstain) to let Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal go through in exchange for a second indyref, the official SNP plan is to now vote with the Tories to give them the election Boris Johnson has been trying to call for weeks – which all polls suggest he’d win, allowing him to enact any sort of Brexit he wants – but to cleverly NOT get a second indyref out of it.
It’s Monday morning, readers, so welcome once again to the world’s favourite situation comedy, the United Kingdom.
The current position is that absolutely nobody has the slightest idea what’s going to happen this week, or today, or by lunchtime. The Prime Minister is as we speak being taken to court (again), and a whole series of votes in the House Of Commons may or may not take place and may or may not determine anything.
But there’s one particularly interesting thing going on.
As we write this, Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal appears to hang in the balance. According to Sky News this morning the arithmetic is poised on a knife-edge.
The four “in play” groups down the middle of the graphic are, from the top: three Tory “Spartans” (hardcore Brexiters who might yet back the deal), 19 Labour MPs who’ve suggested they might do so for various reasons, 20 former-Tory “rebels” who had the whip removed by Johnson for voting to block no-deal, and 14 independents, mainly from the “Change UK” wing or whatever they’re called this week.
The government needs 36 of the 56 to vote with it to get the deal through, and can probably count on most of the 20 former Tories. Labour sources are suggesting, quite plausibly, that double-figure numbers of their 19 will also back the deal. So it’s close.
If it passes, England and Wales will get what they voted for (Brexit), Northern Ireland will – after a fashion – get what it voted for (effectively staying in the EU), and Scotland will get shafted. It’ll be placed at a significant economic disadvantage to NI, at a likely severe cost in jobs and investment. The nation which voted the most decisively on Brexit (for either option) will be the only one not to get its democratic wishes respected.
And slightly surprisingly, the whole UK thinks that’s unfair.
As we write this, in between bouts of weeping with exhausted misery, frustration and rage, Her Majesty’s Opposition’s interminable will-they-won’t-they game of attempting – maybe, one day, perhaps – to bring down the government and force a new election leading to a new EU referendum continues.
And as the SNP in particular devotes huge amounts of energy to trying to stop Brexit, against the wishes of its own voters, we wondered how the public not just in Scotland but in the two constituent nations of the UK that voted Leave felt about that.
It’s been quite the week so far. For the vile and sickening crime of [check notes] finding out what SNP voters were thinking about the important political issues of the moment, we’ve had (especially on Facebook) a two-day barrage of stuff like this, and worse:
So, y’know, on with what we always do: reporting the facts.
Yesterday’s poll results attracted quite a surprising amount of anger from people who apparently don’t consider it at all important to the cause of independence to find out what people intending to vote SNP at the next Holyrood election think.
They’re probably not going to like these ones much either.
A third of SNP voters are unconvinced by the First Minister’s constant assurances that a second indyref will be delivered in the next 18 months. But the related question posed by several readers yesterday was “If you don’t think the SNP has a coherent strategy for securing a new vote, what would YOU do, Mister Smartypants?”
Which is annoying, because it’s a question we’ve answered in various contexts half a dozen times in the past year and a bit. So we thought we’d see if voters had been paying any more attention.
Cynicus on Seven Days Too Long: ““Hope some folk read this so that they can see ‘both votes SNP’ are utterly wasteful. “ ========== Like the…” May 4, 11:42
Dan on Seven Days Too Long: “@ Geri Johnny-come-lately Aidan’s is just the latest of a long series of agitators to rock up btl. He’s no…” May 4, 10:30
Geri on Seven Days Too Long: “Well Scots withdrew them from Westminster. This will be SNPs first real test at Holyrood. The last Holyrood election was…” May 4, 10:12
Geri on Seven Days Too Long: “See AI Dan, this is why yer thick as shit. GERS figures are based on CURRENT spending habits of being…” May 4, 09:44
James Che on Seven Days Too Long: “It would not take many Scottish elections to reduce and eventual delete Colonialism , faster than the mandates given to…” May 4, 09:18
James Che on Seven Days Too Long: “Scotland simply removes the Colonial political parties from Scotland wether they are english registered and at the same time remove…” May 4, 09:02
diabloandco on Seven Days Too Long: “1. ote Counting: Each party’s total votes are counted. 2. Initial Quotient: For the first seat, each party’s quotient is…” May 4, 08:57
James Che on Seven Days Too Long: “The Farage Fear Factors, What about the batshit crazy green goblins,” May 4, 08:51
James Che on Seven Days Too Long: “Curious to see how how the vote count for SNP could hold a majority successful outcome if people in Scotland…” May 4, 08:46
Aidan on Seven Days Too Long: “Feel free Geri, to post a link to the high quality and detailed analysis which shows that an independent Scotland…” May 4, 08:01
Aidan on Seven Days Too Long: “What a pleasure it is to wake up to yet another rabies-induced psychotic rant from Geri. Quite frankly how her/it…” May 4, 07:53
Geri on Seven Days Too Long: “Who is saying we’ll be billions in debt after independence? What do we owe? Zero. Who do we owe it…” May 4, 02:39
Geri on Seven Days Too Long: “Just a suggestion but I wonder if AtLS has ever reached out to Phantom Power to work together? They used…” May 4, 00:50
Geri on Seven Days Too Long: “To lock out other independent parties. Sturgeon boasted herself, live on telly, she’d rather work with yoons than with Alex…” May 3, 22:35
Mark Beggan on Seven Days Too Long: “The Farage Fear Factor, Trump Derangement Syndrome. The Tit Whisperer, Dirty Filthy Labour and Queers for Terrorists. Yes indeed. The…” May 3, 22:12
sarah on Seven Days Too Long: “2016 SNP list vote gained NIL seats. 2021 SNP list vote [over 1 million of them] gained 2 seats. If…” May 3, 21:58
Geri on Seven Days Too Long: “They’re as thick as shit. No wonder the Eppy class shafts them. Dumb doff capping serfs only have the attention…” May 3, 20:53
Iain More on Seven Days Too Long: “Get a life yah toxic wee Sassanach Troll” May 3, 20:04
Aidan on Seven Days Too Long: “No Insider is right Alf, James Cheyne has lost the plot” May 3, 19:34
Mark Beggan on Seven Days Too Long: “These people that told you this are they still in your head?” May 3, 19:31
Mark Beggan on Seven Days Too Long: “When you are right and everyone else is wrong usually means a mental breakdown. How’s the sex change going?” May 3, 19:19
Iain More on Seven Days Too Long: “It is a waste of time asking for a Section 30. Scotland isn’t going to get one whatever. The Yoons…” May 3, 19:05
James Che on Seven Days Too Long: “I have always liked the unionist on here as they are so helpful in making my post entertaining when they…” May 3, 18:57
Mark Beggan on Seven Days Too Long: “Raising a glass of fine malt single whiskey to Graham Linehan. A soldier in the war against evil.” May 3, 18:54
James Che on Seven Days Too Long: “As I mentioned these records of the non- union with Scotland can be researched and checked out, The dummies are…” May 3, 18:50
twathater on Seven Days Too Long: “Unfortunately for you James Che makes more sense with her contributions than you ever did with your constant support for…” May 3, 18:06
Izzie on Seven Days Too Long: “Just back from deliveting SNP both votes leaflet. Knocked them in. People seem to have forgiven (forgotten) campervangate? and Alex…” May 3, 18:06
