Levers of power
16 votes, up to a maximum of 31, you say?
If only there was a party with enough MPs to turn that round, eh?
The Prime Minister’s new Brexit deal is a catastrophe for Scotland. It would massively disadvantage the country compared to Northern Ireland. Companies would entirely sensibly flock across the Irish Sea to enjoy the chance to effectively remain in the EU without the upheaval of leaving the UK, taking thousands of jobs with them, and inward investment to Scotland would tank.
Every nation of the UK would basically be getting what it voted for in 2016, except Scotland. Imagine if there was something we could do.
And readers, please spare us the awful arguments against the idea of offering Johnson the SNP’s votes (or, now, even just abstentions) in return for the power to determine our own destiny. We’ve heard them, and they’re all rubbish.
“But you can’t trust him! He’d do the deal then renege on the promise!”
Then why are we currently pursuing a policy that’s entirely dependent on him giving and keeping his word? Presumably that must be a waste of time too.
(And also: if only we had someone in our team who was red-hot at legal stuff and could make sure the deal was watertight.)
“But it would be immoral to abandon England and Wales!”
England and Wales both voted for Brexit, and more importantly poll after poll shows that they still want it to happen despite knowing it’s going to be dreadful.
It’s not Scotland’s job, or our right, to override their will. And we’d still be protecting them from something much worse.
“But we’d lose an indyref that was held after we’d enabled Brexit!”
Why? Who’d vote against it? Of the 50% of Scottish voters who are currently in favour of independence (or more, depending on the specific question you ask), many of them because of Brexit, which ones would suddenly change their mind and oppose it when it was an absolutely stark and explicit choice between independence and Brexit?
For the people who want independence AND to avoid Brexit, the referendum offers them the precise thing they desire. And the people who are strongly against Brexit but only reluctantly in favour of independence: do we REALLY think they’re going to vote against independence, and thereby condemn themselves to Brexit, just out of some kind of abstract cutting-off-your-own-nose spite?
That’s like voting to stay in a burning skyscraper because you’re in a huff that the lifts aren’t working and you won’t walk up a couple of flights of stairs to get to the roof for the escape helicopter.
“Boris Johnson would never agree such a deal in the first place!”
Why wouldn’t he? We know his own voters are (a) absolutely feverishly desperate to get Brexit done, and (b) not bothered about losing Scotland and/or Northern Ireland to do it. What does he have to lose? And what do we have to lose by at least finding out?
The ball is rolling across an open goal. Successful politics is about having the courage to make difficult decisions that might attract criticism, in order to uphold your principles and achieve your goals. Nigel Farage doesn’t give a toss what the media says about him as long as he gets the thing he wants.
But the independence movement is currently led by people who won’t just miss the chance of a lifetime, but are too scared to even stab a boot at it in case they get some bad press or damage their own careers.
At least Chris Iwelumo tried his best.
I get the logic of this I’m just somehow horrified at the prospect of the SNP voting for (or abstaining on) a Johnstone deal. I also think that unionist remainers in Scotland (who we might need in an indyref2) would go off the deep end! The press certainly would, I see the headlines now Hypocritical Sturgeon Sells SNP’s Soul”
“The press certainly would, I see the headlines now Hypocritical Sturgeon Sells SNP’s Soul””
Since when did we let our movement be dictated by the views of the press?
Could be a way to get whatever terms we wanted for indy2.
“Give us these terms and we abstain, because it is not our place to go against the democratic will of the English and Welsh electorate”
.
It might fly I suppose?
Then get it signed up legally so tight air cannot escape!
Or even better a Tory cannot worm out of it!
Maybe get MI5 to help swing the vote the other way this time! lol
Trying to get my head around this Irish border solution, and after listening to Barnier it just sounds like, (to me anyway), ‘You know what, we are all sick of this Brexit, just do what you want with the border and we will look the other way.’
Johnson doesn’t need this to go through Parliament as he seems to want it Brexit/No Brexit to be an election issue.
Therefor there is no leverage to gain a section 30 for SNP support. Another issue is that if as you suggest a section 30 was granted then the SNP would have agreed for the terms of of Brexit to apply to Scotland.
link to twitter.com
“So acting unlawfully under the Benn Act and breaching the undertakings his lawyers made to the Court on his behalf.”
The Deal, or no deal, but no delays breaks the Ben Act is being touted as illegal – where does that position things?
Could the SNP even frame it under the EVEL rules if they abstain from something that mainly affects England?
Richard Murphy thinks that the “Deal” is illegal
link to taxresearch.org.uk
You won’t get indyref2 with the current husband & wife team running the SNP show. They have too much to lose.
You’ll get a s30 request, sure. Then a refusal.
Then the court cases which should have been explored years ago.
All of which leads to “five more years” for the SNP….or so they’ve calculated.
The treatment of Chris McEleny was fucking awful – given what he went through getting sacked from his job because he was an SNP councillor.
I have no faith in them anymore.
Surely this is the easiest of all to spin…
“We can’t risk no deal and if we don’t vote for this there will be no deal in 10 days time etc etc”. Scotland will have a choice but first we must save the rest of the UK from No Deal.
At the very least they should offer their votes for the same deal being offered to NI. It lets bojo bypass the DUP and no border on Ireland or the Irish sea. However, I think if he did any sort of deal with the SNP, he’d lose more votes from his own party than he’d get from the SNP, in reality
BoJo will never go for it. England need our gas oil water whisky and food or they are financially ruined. So the SNP would be wasting their time asking.
Yeah, I’d support going for it.
Ultimately, the SNP have pursued a policy since 2016 which recognises that there is an impasse – we voted No in 2014, and then Remain in 2016, and these two are incompatible because (due to English and Welsh desires) it is not possible to have both.
This is the case for indyref 2 in a nutshell. It’s not the only case for independence; it’s just the one that has been pursued at this time.
The English and Welsh populations – despite what recent polls seem to say, we should remember that “Remain” was predicted to win in 2016 – seem unlikely to have changed their minds and we should not be trying to force them to in any case (unless they have a chance to vote for parties offering “Remain” in an election, and take that chance).
We also should not be cheering along any attempt to reverse what they voted for through extra-parliamentary means and/or without reference to the public again (i.e. another “mandated” referendum, which someone has won the right to hold through a General Election) as it establishes all sorts of precedents which could be used against us in a subsequent indyref (and, having used them against England’s much larger population successfully, they are unlikely to be fazed by the thought of doing it to Scotland).
I agree that we are unlikely to ever be able to trust a Tory government, but that’s no argument not to risk doing so now rather than later (they are very likely to win General Election when it comes so….).
The SNP did, of course, have red lines which this deal does not meet. However, reality says that other parts of the UK (England mainly) have the stance on Brexit of “this far and no further”, hence the deal apparently on the table.
How long are the SNP to keep going on about their own red lines before accepting that, because other parts of the UK with more voters and MPs do not want that outcome, we will not be getting what they want within the UK?
At the end of the day, it’s only putting off the inevitable task of saying “it’s irreconcilable; they want this form of Brexit and we don’t think Scotland does so we have to decide whether we accept what they want or not”.
And so, either way, you are back at the original question to be put to Scotland’s people: “we are at an impasse; do we vote No and Brexit with the UK on the terms demanded by its largest country, or do we vote Yes and strike out on our own and work towards closer relations with Europe than the rest of the UK wants?”.
Take whatever means you can of being able to ask this question as quickly as you can, is my view. The prize is never being directly subject to Westminster Tory desires/whims/dishonesty ever again.
Agree almost completely Stu, except I’d only want to see them abstain if the numbers add up. It also makes sense since it’s not voting for or against something that will (hopefully) impact only England and Wales, well the most anyway if the Scottish electorate finally grow a pair and vote for independence.
Meanwhile…
link to web.archive.org
Thank goodness you have no involvement in forming SNP strategy.
I think what you are suggesting absolutely reeks of hypocrisy. Fortunately, those within the SNP that you constantly seek to castigate have a clearer sense of morality than you.
Pressure – making it harder to think straight.
But it could be worse, as in this example :-
“I have no reasons except a deep personal desire for us all to stay together. My mums Welsh, my Dads English, I lived all my life as a kid in Scotland, I have Irish ancestry. I was brought up as a Unionist with an enjoyment of watching England lose at any sporting occasion where they were pitted against Celts. It was always a good natured thing. I deeply love the Union.” (Guardian comments)
One more consideration: it seems to be absolutely fine among Labour supporters, and the media, for Corbyn to say he’d support this deal in exchange for a referendum. Why can’t we do the same, and say all we’re asking for is the same thing as Corbyn?
This is 100% spot on Stuart and if the SNP do not grasp this then please get the new party going
You can only play the cards your dealt or in chess terms, sacrificing your queen to allow your more advanced pieces to win you the game (and even to reclaim your queen).
A bold strategy that no-one saw coming (cough) and a Bon Accord all round, Oui ?.
100% agree. They need to offer their votes to get this deal through and give absolutely everyone, apart from DUP and Scottish Unionists, what they want. It is not just an open goal it could well be our last chance for a long time.
Question is though, would Boris make the deal, and release the referendum?
Tweeted this at mid-day:
‘One for Scottish indy supporters…
Would you support the SNP backing Johnson’s Withdrawal Agreement in return for Scottish Parliament getting guaranteed power over timing of Indyref2?’
Currently 346 votes cast
33% Yes
67% No
(With some pretty angry responses giving it ‘how-very-dare-you-even-ask-such-a-thing.)
🙂
PS Forgot to include link…
link to twitter.com
One POSSIBLE flaw…some of the ERG type Tory MPs might reject such a deal…their waffle about ‘our precious union’ might turn out to have some substance to it…So what Boris gained from the SNP he’d lose from the ERG.
Right on cue
“It’s time to get Brexit sorted. If Labour and SNP MPs are against us leaving without a deal, then it’s time to back this one. The country needs to move on. #GetBrexitDone”
link to twitter.com
Exactly! This is a cracking opportunity politically. We have literally nothing to lose by at least asking. Of course it will be leaked, but that’s not really important as the press are staunchly anti indy anyway and it (mercifully) seems not to be affecting the polls much these days. Anyone thinking we need to court the media for favourable press is deluded.
And we better make use of Cherry’s expertise before the fascist TRAs force her out/ scunner her enough she leaves.
Yes, it may harm SNP as a paty long term, but all the members tell us indy is the most important thing to them. If that’s the case, they’d be willing to risk a party hit to gain indy (post indy the SNP would see drop in support anyway so doubt there’s be a provable causal link).
Peoples objections on moral grounds are absolutely understandable. But also stupid. You don’t turn down a penalty at 0-0 in the last minute of the World Cup final because you’re not sure the player tripped your teammate. You try and win the world cup and to hell with the criticism.
If the SNP enable Brexit they lose my vote.
As posted on previous thread.This is now Real Po!itik.
England will have its Brexit one way or another. An extension on!y opens the door to Farage. Then we will have problems aplenty.
Brexit sil! be done. What can we do for Scotland with that knowledge ?
Breaking. SNP not backing deal
Stu, “Since when did we let our movement be dictated by the views of the press?”
We ignore the press but soft unionists in Scotland will lap it up.
No.
For what doth it profiteth the YES Movement if we gain a Section 30, only to lose the votes of those non-SNP voters who moved over from NO to YES because they voted Remain?
Frankly YES would be lucky to break 40% in such an imorally gained Referendum.
[…] Wings Over Scotland Levers of power 16 votes, up to a maximum of 31, you say? If only there was a party with enough MPs to […]
There’s been a study that suggests it was English retirees living in Wales that swung the vote there
link to theguardian.com
There’s also a good chance that business and industry would campaign for Yes if it’s a choice between Josnstons deal and Scotland in the EU..
If say roll the Dice….
The way I see it, the SNP can take a chance at this and maybe gain us indy, or they can be “principled” and keep us locked in the UK and out of EU with nobody in Scotland having a choice.
That’s the material reality, we can stop pretending that BoJo will be overcome with generous spirit of self determination post brexit to gift Scotland another referendum he has absolutely no need (legal or political) to do. And that’s even likely to be a long time POST brexit, when the “this is our lifeboat” argument is dead.
Anyone who actually thinks about the facts, rather than huffing with outrage would see that the choice is stark- try to get indy ASAP or be tied to brexit Britain indefinitely, possibly with a wee dissolution of Holyrood thrown in for good measure.
England is to Scotland what one hundred rusted six-inch nails in a block of wood for three hundred years is – very hard to remove.
Right now the only company with the wherewithal to get the job of removal done, is the SNP, albeit with outside help.
Unpalatable and challenging as this is, nevertheless them’s the facts.
Maybe Stu & the SNP could kiss and make up?
In any event, things are still moving, nothing is settled.
Ps. Supporting the Tories would be intensely problematic for the SNP and the independence movement.
I have said this elsewhere but will say it again. The voters of England may be happy to get rid of Scotland but the moneymen will not let the cash cow go without a (dirty) fight.
Maolbeatha @ 12.07pm
Desperate times call for desperate measures – I like your thinking.
The devil in the detail, however, is, as always – can you trust a Tory?
@Dadsarmy
You quoted Rea! Politik to me on several occasions as justification of actions. Is this not about politics rather than ethics and morals ?
If you *think* asking Boris Johnson for a section 30 is going to result in him giving a section 30 to Scotland. Then why has BJ got everyone against his deal
The SNP are against the deal
The DUP are against the deal
Ulster Unionist Steve Aiken “you know what? We’d be better off remaining.”
Nigel Farage is against the deal.
Strangely the Tories all think that it is a great deal and Labour are probably split.
Why does the SNP have to agree to shaft Scotland?
If Parliament does not pass this deal on Saturday morning will a general election be called?
If an election is called, then the Tories fight on “The Deal or No Deal”
How do you expect England – with the most votes to vote?
5 more years of Tory Government and no effective opposition from Labour. Lib Dem vote is dropping away in polling.
Tories like to use Postal votes – handy for getting the vote out in cold, wet, windy weather.
@manandboy
“Stu and the SNP kiss and make up” implies this is an issue of them having had a falling out. The issue that comes across is the SNP policy on indy is…nothing. Stu is very keen to get things moving in that regard, and has made it clear he is not campaigning in opposition to the SNP.
At present the SNP are the only (viable) indy game in town- fair enough. But they need to remember the goal- Independence. 3 years of trying to save Britain from itself was a waste of time. It has achieved nothing. EU nationals are leaving. Sitting meekly and taking the moral high ground over the coming weeks will afford MPs a smugness, which will help no poor or vulneraple Scots when brexit hits the fan.
Unshakable principles are an individual’s luxury. Politicians act in the interests of the people and will need to do things they’re uncomfortable with at times to achieve the best outcome.
Yes Rev spot on, the SNP could back Johnson’s deal for the granting of a S30 order in return. Afterall they mustn’t lose sight of the main goal which is independence first and foremost.
As much as many in the EU are sick of the Brexit posturing how many are also weary of the SNP hot air about independence?
The petulant cry of ‘wolf’ is becoming tiresome, the electorate could easily become sated with politicians and their temporising bluff and chatter. Be warned!
dadsarmy says:
17 October, 2019 at 12:55 pm
No.
For what doth it profiteth the YES Movement if we gain a Section 30, only to lose the votes of those non-SNP voters who moved over from NO to YES because they voted Remain?
————–
The logic of this isn’t quite right, though. Why would these same committed Remainers abandon Yes in indyref2 if that offered them a route back into the EU?
Most people would accept Stu’s proposal is highly risky. I wouldn’t call it a ball bobbling along the goal-line — more like a shot on goal when everyone expects a cross, a shot that if blocked might lead to a breakaway winner for the other side.
So the demand shouldn’t be for a S30 order. Something this risky would only be worth it if it was exchanged for permanent transfer of all constitutional matters to Holyrood, with broadcasting thrown in too, if possible.
Be interesting to know what the EU would make of such a move.
With the ‘deal’ comes a transition period. I’ve always felt that is the ideal time to hold IndyRef2. We’d be out against our will. We would know that the Tories will now move towards a hard Trade Deal with the EU out of customs union and single market. There would be stability, though. Some people say a ‘no deal’ Brexit with all it’s chaos and hardship would swing folks to YES, however, it also give the BritNat a strong propaganda weapon saying “Indy will be more chaotic”. On balance, IR2 during a transition period is best.
To back this ‘deal’ or abstain, the SNP should (IMO) set the date for IR2 soon and get the campaign up and running. Say for Spring 2020.
If they facilitate this ‘deal’ and bring about Brexit they must not delay nor prevaricate any longer. The MUST move Scotland rapidly to independence. It must be 100% crystal clear that the SNP delivered England and Wales’s choice as a direct trade off for allowing Scotland to make its choice about the future.
Now is the time for the SNP to put Scotland first.
I would hope most YES supporters would take the same pragmatic view and put the chance of independence first. I don’t see this as underhand, nor u-turning, nor selling out … E&W get what they want, Scotland gets the chance to say what it wants. I’m fine with that.
The beating heart of Brexit is money, dressed as politics.
Scotland is awash with money.
Johnson’s ’employer’s’ will not give Scotland up.
The Union trump’s Brexit to the moneymen.
It’s simple arithmetic, albeit using £trillions.
@Galamcenna!ath,
Yes and we would be fighting a referendum platform of being in or out of the EU into the bargain.
@Republicofscotland,
What is your Plan B when BJ inevitably says No!
If SNP do a deal, to abstain or back it, sure they’d get a hard time from the press, so what, that fight needs fought anyway. But we’d have indyref2…..People would soon focus on Yes versus No, and no one can say they never saw it coming.
What we need is Tory leadership now – They need to approach the SNP……and it needs to be known.
Between 1 & 31 votes needed.
Johnson can pretty much rely on 260 votes, he needs 60.
The 60 need to come from ..
– the DUP 10
– hard core Tory Brexiteers, many with follow the DUP line
– the ex Tories
– Labour pro Brexit rebels
– and, maybe the SNP.
If the DUP don’t back it, only the SNP can deliver a win.
God’s sake.
If SNP just doesn’t vote then they are not joining party with an abstention.
We control the wording on the ref 2 paper, we have the right to ask for the EU
to monitor the Ref, we insist this time that the purda isn’t to be broken and if independence
Declared we use the EU with us to fairly divide up All UK assists.
Let the English and Welsh sheep following Bojo and Greesed Moggie over that economic cliff.
Should be lots of English jobs relocating to Scotland too.
I am not entirely clear what this deal is yet. The Labour position seems to be moving towards a referendum to verify any deal. Not sure how you can do that if you vote every deal down though.
The SNP should examine the deal and consider what the alternatives are. No Deal could be worse and give Boris a majority in any upcoming GE.
This is a game of chess and the SNP should not sacrifice key pieces cheaply. Securing an escape route by backing the least worst option may not be ideal but it may make more sense than facilitate crashing out on No deal and helping Boris get his feet well under the table at No 10 and Scotland ends up with absolutely nothing.
Supporting Labour in a No confidence motion is an alternative but it looks like Swinson will back Boris rather than allow Corbyn to lead (and for Labour to grant a S30 because she hates second referendums or something.)
It is a swirling mess of conflicted ambitions and allegiances. Which may suit Cummings, they ditched the DUP in the end.
Johnson never intended there to be any deal. His puppet masters and financiers need a no deal to safeguard their offshore assets, to continue avoiding tax, and to make a financial killing to boot on currency devaluation. He stands to gain personally in terms of position, and I suspect money, from doing their bidding. Johnson would happily have let things drift to a no deal conclusion by the end of October but, because of the Benn Act, he was placed in a bind.
The feverish activity of late has been caused by a change in his strategy necessitated by the Benn Act. He desperately needed to conclude a deal with the EU by today, but one which he knew would not be acceptable to Parliament and so continue to use up time and stave off confrontation with the Benn Act as long as possible. We all know his “super” deal is worse than May’s effort and a disaster for Scotland in particular. Brexit fatigue is becoming a big factor in this but there must be enough MP’s with the spine and decency vote it down. Today’s events are all a game to Johnson, the blame game. He wants to pin the blame on Parliament for scuppering his wonderful agreement with the EU.
I am convinced Johnson wants his deal to fail and will not enter into any pacts with the SNP or others to help it through Parliament. Quite how he plans to string Parliament along till the end of October and avoid the provisions of the Benn Act I have no idea, but I am sure he has a cunning plan for that too. This is a corrupt, mendacious, individual with no principles or morals. He will lie and cheat to achieve what is best for him. I sincerely hope that his future will ultimately lie behind bars but I am not holding my breath.
I think I would want more than just an offer of a referendum to support the Tories. I would want all the promises of 2014 respected , the ability to call any future referendum by Scottish Parliament approval only, and alls these written into law that can only be changed by Scottish Parliament approval. Plus all the power grab legislation rescinded and it made law that it could not be changed without SP approval.
Then I might consider this option, otherwise it is a shite option and has no chance of the SNP going down this route.
Adrian B says:
17 October, 2019 at 1:13 pm
@Republicofscotland,
What is your Plan B when BJ inevitably says No!
See what the SNP are doing currently. We lose almost nothing by asking- if he says no we do as is currently planned, if he says yes we get it legally watertight before the vote.
Scotland voted against Brexit.
“Scotland will not be taken out of the EU against its will” “oh sorry we changed our mind we will now vote for Scotland to be taken out of the EU against the will of the Scottish people” “Trust us.”
“We are now having an independence referendum because we are being taking out of the EU against our will -um um um yes we did vote to leave the EU.” “Yes we did vote for a deal that massively disadvantaged Scotland”
It need not necessarily be sold as supporting the Torys. It could justifiably be sold as understanding the wishes of the English electorate, whilst givng Scotland another opilon.
Optics of how its viewed are important.
Further to what I said at 1:09
If Johnson delivers a withdrawal agreement and an actual exit, he will call a general election. He will win a landslide under those circumstance IMO.
The SNP must have IndyRef2 timetabled and that GE must be fought on the issue of independence. Independence is the antidote to Brexit. The SNP will have just helped to administer a nasty dose of Brexit poison to Scotland along with the rest of the UK. YES supporting must trump Remain supporting in that election.
If the SNP do badly in the GE it will be used against the Indy cause.
You know what is sad is that some people assume that certain prominent remainers who have been crowned the ‘people’s vote’ champions will applaud the SNP for their current support on Brexit….and thus in return openly support Scotland breaking away from THEIR beloved UKOK….which they see as currently being flushed down the pan.
The reality is that post Brexit we , and the SNP, will become once again an irritant and distraction to what THEY want and wanted….our quest to get Independence will be filed away in the bottom drawer of their consciousness…..it will be ffs ” Stop going on about independence”….” This is about what WE want and wanted not YOU”.
Where will we be if Brexit happens ?
Who will help fight our corner and see our perspective as to how unjustly we have been treated ?
Who will care ?
Are we, and the SNP, not dammed if we do and dammed if we don’t.
Where were all of those prominent remainer champions pre 2014 when we were trying to get our independence ? Serving up platitudes ” We love you “…” Don’t go Scotland, stay”
And as to another ‘people’s vote’…has anyone answered the question what happens if Scotland once again votes remain and England votes leave…well I have heard that prominent remainer champions will RESPECT the result which means they will expect us in Scotland to do also…no exceptions…UK wide vote…the SNP will be left holding an empty gun as all of their ammunition will have been used in trying to keep the UK as a whole in the EU….including the support of a second vote on the EU….last chance saloon for remainers.
The SNP are getting swept up into THEIR argument….twas their, the prominent remainer champions, countrymen who instigated ,have been the driving force and who will be the ones who decide all our fates on this Brexit mess….we in Scotland never asked for this but are more than aware it was generated to appease a faction within the Tory party.
I am , like many others, totally sick of this …..that the DUP, Tory party , Farage, UKIP ,right wing journalists aligned with Brexit fanatics and dubious businessmen,sash wearing Unionists in Scotland and all other pro Brexit factions are being given control of our destiny in Scotland…not in my name…EVER….and should also not be in the name of people I elected to represent me at Holyrood and WM.
Incoming anyone ….Lol
“Stu and the SNP kiss and make up” implies this is an issue of them having had a falling out. ”
No, Martin, the implication is that two heads are better than one when going in the same direction. Right now, Stu and the SNP don’t agree on their respective current modus operandi.
@Bob Mack
Scotland voted Remain, now you want the SNP to support leave for the promise of a referendum. Possibly a worse negotiated deal than May’s and Johnson’s combined.
This would end up with the SNP being slaughtered at the next election and they would deserve it. It could make one individual very happy though.
Good grief. ONE GUY comes out with an idea that is the lesser of two evils and its hypocrisy? Okay. Card on table here – Im not a gradualist, but it feels like weve been marched up this bloody hill so long towards “the tipping point” that we’ve not only came to a sodding standstill, but are in danger of sliding right back to the bottom.
With an emboldened Tory administration of ‘national government’, Edinburgh being closed, and/or the shitstorm of a hard brexit, whether we actually slide or not is irrelevant if we become royally stuffed. And thats before we get inundated with the dregs of the UDA coming across here to avoid a united Ireland and voting ‘No’.
Stu – you are to be congratulated for not only warning us of a POSSIBLE problematic scenario but providing a solution, no matter how unpalatable it might seem.
Instead of wasting time with Corbyn and Swinson, the SNP should have been developing a border idea with England, identical to the Ireland solution. We could then have remained in the EU and stayed part of the GB trading union too.
A quick perusal suggests Boris has agreed something worse than what May achieved. I can’t see the SNP voting for it but I guess the next day or two will see either frantic horse trading or Boris sitting smugly waiting for the deadline to pass. If the latter then any request for a S30 is a waste of time and a No Confidence vote and Corbyn are the only route and Swinson can choose to be the midwife that delivers No Deal.
Oh really?
“Boris Johnson and Jean-Claude Juncker have jointly announced agreement on a new Brexit deal despite the refusal of the Democratic Unionist party to give its backing.
After weeks of negotiations that went deep into the early hours of Thursday morning and with mounting pressure to have legal text ready for EU leaders to read before a summit, the two leaders said an agreement was ready.
The prime minister tweeted: “We’ve got a great new deal that takes back control – now parliament should get Brexit done on Saturday so we can move on to other priorities like the cost of living, the NHS, violent crime and our environment.”
@Clapper 57,
No you are in my view total!y correct.
Johnsons deal will fail and an extension sil! go in.
The EU may grant it.
Johnson failed his mission and will have to go.(maybe)
Farage is waiting in the wings with his definite leave policy.
Then he and Tofies will have a majority at the next election.
Farage may even become PM or deputy PM to get Brexit done.
Thats what we face.
@ Martin,
You expecting this deal to actually pass through Parliament when more are against it than were against May’s deal?
If BJ wanted support, then why are the DUP not backing it? Seems odd that only the Tories fully support this. Is this deal supposed to fail on Saturday?
It would do considerable damage to the SNP to back a bad deal for Scotland – because that it will not be forgotten by the press or most of the population. It would be a point that would be exploited in full by all that are against the SNP or Independence.
As a tool against all that the SNP stand for, supporting the effects of a bad Brexit would play well in Scotland for Labour and the Lib Dems. It couldn’t do any damage to the Tories either as they can highlight the lack of morals, say anything to get Independence, Hypocritical SNP….
Labour and Lib Dems could validly exploit the SNP supporting the “reckless damage” or a Tory Brexit.
Don’t expect the press to highlight or interrupt labour, the Lib Dems – even the Greens? at a time when we should be talking up the positives of Scotland having full control of all powers as an Independent Nation, easy quick EFTA membership with an eye to getting back into the EU as a small successful nation.
I can actually see both sides of this debate about whether it is sensible to back the brexit deal – however if they were to do that in exchange for only a section 30, that would be too cheap. I think the PERMANENT transfer of powers over referenda should be demanded as a minimum, and also that as an interim measure Scotland should get the same arrangement as is proposed for NI. Don’t sell your votes too cheaply. Nail the bastards to the floor to get whatever you can for Scotland. Anyone knows that in negotiations you don’t start with your lowest bid.
@Jfngw,
Your position makes no sense. The SNP have promised the people of Scotland a vote on their future. We know that.
We are leaving anyway. Nicola stated that much on TV when she talked of how we would be accepted back into Europe beczuse she has been talking to them.
We lose nothing. England h as chosen its path. So must Scotland
reminds of that shit old joke about the floodwaters rising, the guy sitting on top of his house, turning away aid because “God will save him” …
you slay the beast while it’s wounded … you don’t take it to the fucking vet
– would it not be beautiful, if we were to make the conservative and UNIONIST party -complicit- in Independence for Scotland aka
THE BREAKUP OF THE UNION
– you would also cement the reputation of Boris the Turk as the most stunningly incompetent buffoon to ever get the hot seat
– just get the deal in writing, upfront, a date set and jimmy carter and the lads to do the counting
I still think Johnson’s bosses would disallow it.
“Johnson doesn’t need this to go through Parliament as he seems to want it Brexit/No Brexit to be an election issue.
Therefor there is no leverage to gain a section 30 for SNP support.”
If he’s given the chance to pass a Brexit deal and he rejects it, that damages him electorally in all sorts of ways.
So the WORST-case scenario of this plan is that still doesn’t get us independence, same as not doing it, but it hurts Boris Johnson. I can live with that, how about you?
Looks like no deal (the DUP will not support)
I think he will ask for an extension, call a general election and blame the DUP. Of course he might not call the extension or the EU will not allow one.
Boris to go for GE on the basis of no deal brexit
Assume no deal enacted, borders crash fishermen and farmers feel the pain and the whisky industry starts to pay tariffs around the world. Good background for indy ref2 in my book
The Jocks are really stupid of they think Westminster gives a hoot about them
“Could the SNP even frame it under the EVEL rules if they abstain from something that mainly affects England?”
That would be a totally valid argument, since Scotland was being given its own separate choice.
“BoJo will never go for it. England need our gas oil water whisky and food or they are financially ruined. So the SNP would be wasting their time asking.”
Nothing to lose by offering, then?
“Thank goodness you have no involvement in forming SNP strategy.
I think what you are suggesting absolutely reeks of hypocrisy.”
In what possible way is it hypocritical? The SNP have absolutely consistently said that Scotland should not leave the EU and that the answer is independence. They literally said exactly that today. This plan achieves that.
Boris Johnston would lie and cheat to get what he wants. He will make promises and then renege on them. It’s not fear that prevents the SNP from making a deal with him, it’s bitter experience. There are no cast iron deals with Wetminster. There is only overwhelming force.
What has Boris Johnston got to lose? Millions of barrels of oil over the next 40 years. Wind and wave power. An endless supply of bodies to fill the armed forces and deploy in foreign wars. Somewhere to park Trident. Water. Whisky. Fish. Balance of payments. Someone bound to pay England’s debt.
He will not deliver.
Had Chris Iwelumo scored a goal, the bent referee that is Westminster would have declared him offside.
“I can actually see both sides of this debate about whether it is sensible to back the brexit deal – however if they were to do that in exchange for only a section 30, that would be too cheap. I think the PERMANENT transfer of powers over referenda should be demanded as a minimum”
I agree. That’s how I put it in the recent poll.
“it seems to be absolutely fine among Labour supporters, and the media, for Corbyn to say he’d support this deal in exchange for a referendum. Why can’t we do the same, and say all we’re asking for is the same thing as Corbyn?”
We can.
“Richard Murphy thinks that the “Deal” is illegal”
It may be. Imagine the reaction if Parliament voted it through, after all this time, then Jolyon Maugham got it blocked in the courts. Johnson would win a landslide.
OT
link to dropbox.com
Jo Maugham’s petition to the Court of Session.
“Supporting the Tories would be intensely problematic for the SNP and the independence movement.”
It’s not “supporting the Tories”. It’s supporting democracy.
“It would do considerable damage to the SNP to back a bad deal for Scotland”
They wouldn’t be backing it. They’d be saying “avoid this bad deal by voting for independence”.
Has Johnson got the EU as part of the deal to agree to refuse an extension. If so mega pressure on the MPs on Sat when they vote. It will be deal or no deal with the extension taken off the table.
What Elmac said 1:19pm.
“Tweeted this at mid-day:”
But Twitter polls are meaningless because they’re hugely distorted by your followers. I did a *proper, professional* poll of SNP supporters on the subject barely a week ago and it was massively supported.
Seems like a no brainer to me. England will not thank Scotland for stopping Brexit, that is clear.
Sometimes you have to sup with the devil to get what you need, this seems to be one of those rare times.
Scotland NEEDS OUT OF THE UK whichever way it can. To have a scenario where Scotland comes off by far the worst because of playing nice, is just not an option, it would be stupidity in the extreme.
In 2014, the message I got from friends and family in England, was that Scotland wanted a ‘utopia’
and was selfish and no sympathy was displayed toward Scotland, in fact more contempt and ridicule than anything. I don’t see that being any different now, at all. The people of England would by and large shrug their shoulders at best, when Scotland is ruined due to their Brexit, some would have a right old larf!
Get OUT Scotland, before it really is too late.
Boris would rather be dead in a ditch than do a deal with the SNP
Retired Ruth Davidson is apparently anything but.
Of interest? Not at the moment perhaps.
link to archive.fo
(thetimes.co.uk/-p8znb66wmony)
Blair met Ruth Davidson to question her on risk of Scottish referendum
Kieran Andrews
Frankly it’s a horrific idea, but . .
The alternative seems to be either the deal going through (in which case WM can then turn their attention to putting Scotland back in its box), or it falling then BJ winning a majority in a general election and forcing it through (in which case WM can then turn their attention to putting Scotland back in its box).
In either scenario, the SNP government have lost any leverage to force Westminster to agree to a section 30. Game over.
@ Shug,
Boris would rather remain as PM than be dead in a ditch.
right on the button
@Rev –
‘Twitter polls are meaningless’
I’m not a pollster and don’t claim to be.
Yes, of course they’re ‘meaningless’ but I enjoy doing them and if they help get folk thinking and talking about the question, where’s the harm? If nothing else, they tell me what my followers think about stuff and that’s of interest to me.
Anyway, FWIW (?) currently 816 votes cast, 34% saying Yes, they’d do the deal.
😉
Funny how leaving the EU wasnt so dreadful when it was a possibility for Scotland after a successful indyref last time.
As someone who deals with macro economics on a daily basis – the EU is an economic zombie and a future political nightmare. Its a dying project with inflexible leadership. Sorry.
There will be a lot of people dead… in and outwith ditches…. if Boris remains as PM….irrespective of whether we are IN or OUT of the EU….that’s the real problem….
@Bob Mack
You want the SNP to approve a leave vote then demand a referendum because we are leaving. If I was the PM I would immediately tell you as you did not vote against leaving then you have no reason to request a referendum, you got the result you voted for. Yes, my reasoning makes no sense!
Joe@2.11pm
“Sorry”. No need to say sorry for expressing your view – unless of course you think it is a lot of mince.
This ‘saving England and Wales from themselves’ despite what they voted for has to be among the most arrogant, stupid, hypocritical shit ive come across in my lifetime. Cant wait for Westminster to save Scotland from itself after any successful indy move. FFS.
@ Cubby
Im saying sorry because i recognise that too many in the indy movement have the mental maturity of children and cant handle opposing veiwpoints. As WOS is experiencing. Sorry folks, not being nasty. Just honest. Dont go having any breakdowns
“The way I see it, the SNP can take a chance at this and maybe gain us indy, or they can be “principled” and keep us locked in the UK and out of EU with nobody in Scotland having a choice.”
Precisely.
“You want the SNP to approve a leave vote then demand a referendum because we are leaving. If I was the PM I would immediately tell you as you did not vote against leaving then you have no reason to request a referendum, you got the result you voted for.”
Don’t be stupid. It’s a conditional deal.
Northern Ireland have the democratic right of consent re Johnson’s deal.
Scotland have the undemocratic right to be told to shut up by Westminster and get back in your box and enjoy your gruel.
GET SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE DONE
@jfngw,
Obviously that would be decided before any vote Nil to lose
Joe@2.17pm
“Don’t go having any breakdowns”
I’m fine thanks for caring. Don’t you go being patronising.
Perhaps I misunderstand but any change to the Good Friday agreement needs approval by Stormont which is currently not sitting. In it’s stead the UK Government will decide for it, but without the support of any of the NI parties. The democratic fallout from this will mean unification of Ireland surely?
It’s a conditional deal.
What like the DUP one with the Tories, the one they have now effectively dumped, very amusing.
The ghost of ’79, myth that it was, looms large over this idea.
I’m abstaining, for now.
The idea is democratically sound, but we are dealing with so many people, all with different agendas, that my head is bursting.
I’ll come back later.
British nationalists can never be trusted.
In addition to the Rev’s proposal the EU must sign a memo of understanding that if there is a yes vote Scotland has an open door to Europe.
This would be a tightrope walk, but it might be doable. Maybe.
On the one hand, the strongest argument against it seems to be that it would mean indyref2 taking place against the background of an economic collapse worse than Ireland’s from 2008-12 — this is what Johnson’s deal means — and that the SNP would be held partially responsible for this. The BBC would be literally unwatchable due to presenters climax ing into the camera lenses.
On the other hand, by definition indyref2 would offer the option of escaping this economic nightmare when an indy Scotland rejoins the EU.
Because this plan is so risky, and might be good for Yes but terrible for the SNP, and Johnson would probably reject the offer anyway, it’s unlikely the SNP would even consider it. But more generally, Stu’s instinct is correct that the SNP’s overall relationship to Westminster has to become more nuanced and less predictable.
Labour know they can play their degrading back and forth games over the S30 because the SNP have presented themselves as supplicants who will only ever have dealings with Labour and nobody else. So *some* kind of message that that’s not necessarily the case would be welcome.
Even more generally, it’s time for the SNP to get wise to the fact that in modern politics it’s no longer necessary or desirable to have one consistent message for all voters. Segment your message to different audiences on Facebook and elsewhere on social media. Say one thing to Yessers and if necessary something very different to soft Nos. Have completely different messages for Remainers and Leavers, if necessary. Stop being so honourable, and so predictable — in the current mass media environment this isn’t just bringing a knife to a gunfight, but doing so while the opposition are being supplied with AR 15s by the cops. (And that’s coming from someone who’s otherwise okay with SNP strategy).
I have to defer to this logic as it is clearer and makes more sense than FMs current position. It’s called politics no matter how unpalatable this may be. Press will spout shite either way folks, ( not been paying attention ? ),
Remember the press shite about SNP enabling Thatcher era. AS would have snapped this trap before now.
Ask yourself this truly… How can you lever plan A ?
Answer get your retaliation in first .. When its least expected.
Jean-Claude Juncker on tv suggesting that there would be no extension if the present deal is voted down on Saturday in his view.
Slightly surprised at that. 🙁
Anyways, basically speaking whatever our individual view are, for or against, it is neccessary to put the idea forward, and let’s face it, the SNP can’t unless they actually do it, so someone has to. It wasn’t me!
Of course there is not 35 votes here as tying in an independence referendum with the vote could make the Scots Tories vote against it. It is then only 22 votes, and as I’ve seen the defeat is being predicted as between 1 and 31 then if the SNP vote to leave but the vote is still lost then they are shredded as far as any being a Remain party.
The minimum bargaining position should be an agreed indyref date during Spring 2020 accepted by the Tories.
@ call me dave – yes, JC Junker says there is no need for an extension as they have a deal. BJ and JCJ shake hands for the cameras.
jfngw
!6 votes would do it then. No to yes = 2 votes
@jnfgw,
You actually believe the Scots Tories would vote against Boris.? Game over friend .He practica!!y needs an enema to keep them out his back pocket.
Yesterday a couple of Scottish newspapers reported the Scottish Government had reached an agreement with the UK Government for a third party arbitrator to resolve disputes between Holyrood and Westminster on devolved powers returning from the EU. Details to be released at the end of the year’s.
Under the EU Withdrawal Act 2018, all of the devolved powers the EU has responsibility for, revert to Holyrood control after seven years under a sunset clause.
However, for two years after Brexit changes can be made by agreement.
If no changes are made the right to make changes lapses but the existing set up remains for a further five years.
I also heard that despite the two extensions the UK has requested, the transitional arrangement Theresa May negotiated will still end on the 31st December 2020?
I reckon the UK Government would need six months to negotiate an application to ‘rejoin’ with the EU on behalf of a soon to be independent Scotland.
The announcement of a referendum at the end of 2020 would mean negotiations taking place outside of the transitional arrangement period so to avoid that, there is a probably going to be an extension to transitional arrangement period.
Have the people of the north of Ireland now been given the power to change its future relationship between itself and the EU and the so-called united kingdom?
“What is your Plan B when BJ inevitably says No”
We get assurances first and foremost, if Johnson says no then we’ve lost nothing, however if he says yes that’s a bonus.
Latest Junker says if the deal is rejected there will be no new deal on offer.
Sinn Feinn have the right approach (from BBC Live feed):
“Posted at 14:0614:06
Sinn Fein: Deal is ‘complex’ and ‘least worst option’
Sinn Fein President Mary Lou McDonald says she welcomes the agreement between the EU and the UK government.
She says the deal is “complex and wide-ranging” and “all aspects need to be considered in their entirety”.
But she says: “There is no such thing as a good Brexit.
“Brexit is being foisted on the north of Ireland against the democratic wishes of the people.
“As a party, Sinn Fein has worked to defend Irish interests from the worst impacts of Brexit.
“Any deal can only mitigate the worst effects of Brexit; a least worst option.””
——————-
Also, I don’t think even the Tories want this deal, so voting for it would actually be going against Tory wishes, as backwards as that may sound!!
callmedave says:
17 October, 2019 at 2:33 pm
Jean-Claude Juncker on tv suggesting that there would be no extension if the present deal is voted down on Saturday in his view.
Slightly surprised at that. ?
————-
Suggests the EU would be fine with the plan discussed in this thread. Well, well.
It’s workable with skill and judgement. But it needs dynamic leadership to attempt it and NS is way too conservative for that.
“If he’s given the chance to pass a Brexit deal and he rejects it, that damages him electorally in all sorts of ways.”
I don’t think Boris is going to reject a Brexit Deal – he is proposing it. Parliament is were is could well be voted down and it is expected that only the Tories will back it at this point.
“So the WORST-case scenario of this plan is that still doesn’t get us independence, same as not doing it, but it hurts Boris Johnson. I can live with that, how about you?”
Sorry – how on earth does Johnson get damaged by the SNP voting for/against or abstaining on a 500 page Brexit Deal voted for on Saturday morning.
In all circumstances that I see he comes out as the man that put the deal together. If it fails in Parliament that isn’t his fault.
Do you expect the Deal to pass on Saturday morning?
Call Me Dave @ 2-33pm
My interpretation of JC Junckers response to the extension question is that he does not wish to be seen as pre-empting a HOC vote on the New Deal.
He is perfectly aware of the Benn Act compelling the PM to ask for an extension in such circumstances.
@Unionixt media BDSM club,
EU might feel indebted to Scotland for removing uncertainty as well. He!ps in future negotiations if they happen.
This is the problem mind, the most recent incarnation of it:
link to thenational.scot
The FM has consistently said the May deal is a terrible deal for Scotland, and now that this one is even worse, and a fair few think tanks and chambers of commerce, CBI Scotland I think, have agreed with her.
Vote for it, and the SNP lose all that grudging – and quotable – support.
So it ain’t going to happen, 0% chance.
@mr thms
I also saw your interesting post on the other thread, and these are probably along the lines the FM is looking at in broad principles. An extended transition is what Hughes talked about I think, and I think it would be specific for Scotland while allowing the rUK to escape the EU (apart from any backstops). With a transition in place, you’d think it would be easy just to modify it and extend it for Scotland!
Totally get your logic Stu… heres the However… it would be spun relentlessly by EVERY unionist media and politicians that the SNP was responsible for the entire brexit mess!!
It would be like 1979 on steroids! it could be that the open goal we could be putting the ball into is our own…!
totally agree that our leadership is far too timid and are trying to please the wrong people who will ultimately stab us in the back whenever they can.
I worry that doing this would lead to charges of –
‘cant trust the SNP who claimed to oppose brexit but now caused it by supporting Boris anmd the hard line tories’ etc..
Boris johnston types will come and go as with all unionists… but we must be very careful at not letting them have any ammo!
“Republicofscotland says:
“What is your Plan B when BJ inevitably says No”
We get assurances first and foremost, if Johnson says no then we’ve lost nothing, however if he says yes that’s a bonus.
Latest Junker says if the deal is rejected there will be no new deal on offer.”
So no plan B then, Why do you think BJ will comply with a section 30 – this is key to your position.
We need to concentrate on the GE. SNP are the only independence minded party in Scorland that can take seats off unionist parties. If they stand on an Indy platform and win a large number of seats, Boris will find it very difficult to deny the request and that’s not just my opinion.
link to thenational.scot
Sorry.
‘such circumstances’ (the failure of the New Deal to pass through Parliament).
“…Gove said the “future of Northern Ireland is now decided by the people of Northern Ireland”.
The same must be applied to the people of Scotland.
SNP supporting this would be an absolute gift to the BritNat media, especially BBC. They would milk this ‘u-turn’ of the SNP for all its worth. It would be a colossal own goal. You can almost see the Better Together leaflets: “SNP Supported Brexit because even the SNP know we are better together.” If you think SNP BAaad is awful just now, this would be relentless to the point of changing the mind of many switherers as to the SNP’s ‘true intentions’ “You can’t trust them to deliver on their promises”, “SNP stabbed their supporters in the back” blah, blah. Endless. You, more than most, must know what it would be like, Rev. Sure – it’s unlikely to influence the indy diehards but it WILL influence the switherers. And you know it will.
But this is perhaps getting ahead of ourselves. With BawJaws as PM there will never be an IndyRef2. Sure, he’ll promise the SNP the Earth with legal bells and whistles attached to encourage the SNP into believing the deal is water-tight but the sneaky twist of declaring a national emergency, suspending devolved administrations (indefinitely) will ensure he delivers the cubed root of hee-haw (cf. The Vow).
We play the long game. Keep England imprisoned in the EU with SNP votes until the become so frustrated they demand their very own IndyRef to leave the UK (and thereby the EU – (c) Blair McDougall 2014).
Never. Trust. A. Tory.
Ever. They’re mendacious bastards. Every last one of them.
“SNP MPs cannot vote for this deal and will not vote for this deal.”
link to snp.org
Re Juncker:
He will change his mind on an extension when either the letter is sent as per Benn or the opposition tries to force through a bill for a second EU Referendum on Saturday.
“What like the DUP one with the Tories, the one they have now effectively dumped, very amusing.”
Have they? The deal was “support Theresa May’s government in return for a bucket of cash”. They did, and they’ve still got the cash.
“SNP supporting this would be an absolute gift to the BritNat media, especially BBC. They would milk this ‘u-turn’ of the SNP for all its worth.”
There is no U-turn. And once again, since when did we give a fuck what the BritNat media said?
“We play the long game. Keep England imprisoned in the EU with SNP votes until the become so frustrated they demand their very own IndyRef to leave the UK”
This is the dumbest idea in the history of dumb ideas.
@defo
Only if you want the SNP to vote leave rather than abstain. There is zero chance they will vote leave. The whole premise of this is nonsense and never going to happen. I suspect they would also lose the referendum using this approach, then we would truly be fucked, for a long time.
I want assured approach, not the hope of what some may consider a good poker hand.
“So no plan B then, Why do you think BJ will comply with a section 30 – this is key to your position.”
Well if Junker confirms radio news reports that there will be no further extension, it could be in parliament s interests to secure the deal, which is around 90% of May’s original deal.
Jfngw @ 2.37
Makes a good point…. It’s all over for the Scottish Tory MPs if Scotland votes for Indy..
So could their numbers scupper any arrangement?
For the hard of hearing, reading and thinking the SNP have promised a Scottish independence referendum next year.
It’s game, set and match to Boris.
Just shows what a little ‘balls’ can achieve.
“There is no U-turn.”
From your perspective perhaps not. But That’s not HOW THE BRITNAT MEDIA WILL PORTRAY IT.
“And once again, since when did we give a fuck what the BritNat media said?”
We – the diehard indy supports don’t give a flying fig about the BritNat media – but the mendacious crap they’ll print is not aimed at us, is it?
“This is the dumbest idea in the history of dumb ideas.”
Aye well – they once thought the fridge was a dumb idea. England wants its independence from the EU. If Scotland is seen as the obstacle to England achieving that then they’ll quickly begin to realise that getting rid of that obstacle is the solution and they can only do that with their very own IndyRef.
SNP must vote no. The people of Scotland voted remain.
It seems those polls about England happily agreeing to “sacrificing” the north of Ireland for the sake of England’s brexit have proven to be correct.
Final comment on this, I’ve posted too many already.
I see the Rev has a twitter poll on what outcome BJ wants (I’m not on twitter so I’ll comment here). There should be a third option, he doesn’t actually care if it’s a deal or no deal, he just wants to achieve his 31st Oct self imposed deadline, nothing else matters.
Then he wants to sweep to victory in an election, the consequences are irrelevant to him, he won’t be personally affected and will be gone before the hit truly shits the fan in a few years. He will then write his memoirs in with a Churchillian edge.
Ok… here’s a thought.
Johnsons mentor (Dominic Cumming) has already ‘gamed’ the SNP response to NI receiving preferential treatment and (wait for it) offers Scotland the chance to remain in the Single Market and Custom Union provided they vote in favour of the New Deal.
Impossible?
Like I said… just a thought.
since when did we give a fuck about what the brit nat media say…..??
Well the SNP have been crawling to the brit nat media for years! However, its not us that the brit nat media would imfluence but the 50% of the electoral that dont support Independence!!
Thats the danger with this. Sure were facing danger anyway but… never hold the hand of the Devil!!
Proud Cybernat says:
17 October, 2019 at 3:00 pm
SNP supporting this would be an absolute gift to the BritNat media, especially BBC. They would milk this ‘u-turn’ of the SNP for all its worth. It would be a colossal own goal. You can almost see the Better Together leaflets: “SNP Supported Brexit because even the SNP know we are better together.”
——————–
I agree that this proposal would really put the SNP on the back foot, and is therefore extremely unlikely to go ahead. When Stu first started advocating it my instinct was to reject it.
But one of his strongest arguments is that people’s distaste for the deal would disappear during indyref2, because voting Yes would offer an escape from Johnson’s hard Brexit and the economic bedlam it will bring (roughly a 6.5% fall in GDP, which compared to current growth of 1.5% might mean a net drop of 11% over three years).
I’d add that we’d just have to work even harder at uncoupling the next Yes campaign from the SNP. Let’s not forget that Yes only rocketed when we did that last time round. No sane Yesser wants the next campaign to be focused on the SNP (or organised by them either).
Devil’s advocate: Could the SNP abstain in return for a S30 order?
@Cubby,
Yes we know that thank you. We are looking at one means of making that very thing happen
“So no plan B then, Why do you think BJ will comply with a section 30 – this is key to your position.”
Well if Junker confirms radio news reports that there will be no further extension, it could be in parliament s interests to secure the deal, which is around 90% of May’s original deal.”
Junker is head of the Commission. It is the EU states that get to decide if there should be any extension and its length. Junker only concerned about the deal that is on the table for now. His job is to sell the deal that exists today.
\Admiral
Short answer yes
WM is essentially a triple-hung parliament. This is briliant for the SNP because in such a parliament it means their votes DO HAVE EFFECT. With the other parties divided, the SNP can effectively use their votes to keep Scotland in the EU and, simultaneously, stymie England’s demand for Brexit.
If that situation continues (and I don’t really see why it shouldn’t) then something will have to give. We just have to be patient.
“…people’s distaste for the deal would disappear during indyref2…”
IndyRef2 won’t happen when BoJo suspends the devolved administrations, ostensibly for ‘national emergency’ reasons.
We stay in WM. We agitate. We frustrate. We piss them royally off.
Something will have to give.
The SNP know this and am sure have presented UK government with a dwal lf their own.
This will get us out in the next year.
Oops. Deal of their own
Rob Outram says:
17 October, 2019 at 2:57 pm
We need to concentrate on the GE. SNP are the only independence minded party in Scorland that can take seats off unionist parties. If they stand on an Indy platform and win a large number of seats, Boris will find it very difficult to deny the request and that’s not just my opinion.
link to thenational.scot
——————
Cheers for this, Rob.
“The Bill also provides an exemption from Electoral Commission question testing – which usually takes 12 weeks – for referendum questions that have been tested before. Therefore, if the 2014 referendum question were used again, the legal basis for the vote could be approved within just eight weeks.
It continued: “The Bill also allows Scottish ministers to specify the length of the referendum period during which the campaign rules apply. There is no minimum specified in the Bill, so it could be as short as one week.
“Before this campaign period starts there must be a six-week period during which lead campaigners for each outcome are designated, but the time between approval of the legislation and polling day could be as little as seven weeks.
“This means that in total, a minimum timetable for the whole referendum process is 15 weeks.”
JUst a thought…. if the SNP approached the Tories and tabled such a proposal… do you not think that Labour (or some individuals in Labour) would go against the whip and vote for the deal to keep Scotland?
Proud Cybernat says:
17 October, 2019 at 3:25 pm
“…people’s distaste for the deal would disappear during indyref2…”
IndyRef2 won’t happen when BoJo suspends the devolved administrations, ostensibly for ‘national emergency’ reasons.
We stay in WM. We agitate. We frustrate. We piss them royally off.
Something will have to give.
—————-
Agreed. Stu’s plan wouldn’t even be considered by the SNP, not least because it came from Stu. We’re just shooting the breeze here.
I am still puzzled as to why Boris needs support from the SNP.
If Boris wanted support then the DUP and sections of Labour would have added greater numbers of MPs to vote for his deal.
Sturgeon today speaking to Radio Clyde about the deal:
“SNP MPs cannot vote for that and will not vote for that because our job is to stand up for Scotland’s interests – not sell them down the river. ”
I agree. The only excuse for it would be an absolutely 100% guaranteeable YES vote, a totally definite transition in the EU, and guaranteed EU membership. And even then it’s far too presumptive that that’s acceptable to the majority of the Sovereign People of Scotland.
@adrianB,
Only 12 DUP and a few Labour like Hoey. Not enough.
It’s the long game
SNP craves legitimacy from centre left in England should we ever have to resort to plan b.
SNP doesn’t have a good answer for this deal re hard English border. Better no brexit, if possible, than any brexit at all. No brexit is better for indyref arguments.
If its no brexit at all they’ve managed to get what our people wanted. That’s a success. Plenty other reasons for independence.
Tam the Ban @ 3.13
I just admit that it crossed my mind that getting an equivalent deal to N.Ireland ( minus the oil fields of course and possibly without the Referendum rights of N.Ireland ) would Mibbi be VOW 2!
Supposing Nicolas right and they will eventually cave over the section 30 and Scotland is likely to vote yes.
In part because of the way we’ve been treated over Brexit.
To offer to “fix”that it we stayed is about all they have.
In fact when ye think about it,they had nothing left to offer Scotland so they’ve created something…
Tis a thought…. Because even if This deal fails now…
Right back it comes after a General Election if Jonston wins especially with a majority…
@Dadsarmy,
And if The Tories and or Brexit party wins a majority, at the coming election, then Scotland is going down that river anyway,
I think you’re wrong on this one, Rev. Brexit is not going to be stopped. No one is going to revoke it. If the deal falls on Saturday, we’ll end up with a GE which Johnson & the Brexiteers will walk. And if it falls by a lower margin than there are SNP MPs, the howls of, “The Jocks stole our Brexit!!! Get rid of them!!!” will be audible in outer space, even through its vacuum. There is no good way out for the UK anymore – they’ve screwed it. The SNP just need to keep acting for their constituents. And whatever else happens, avoid any deal with the Tories.
Also shouldn’t we be expecting a quid pro quo from the EU too for finally getting brexit off their agenda?
Say we take your course of action, could this cause a big problem when we ask to rejoin the EU once independent? Since SNP have been such ardent remainers, and also campaigned for a 2nd brexit referendum, would a sudden swing of our motives, our facilitating the exit of the UK be looked upon unfavourably in any way?
Personally think its just too wild a turnaround. And a crash out no deal brexit will help indyref2 chances more, than an SNP driven soft (hard) brexit, imo.
The only scenario that would be acceptable for the SNP to vote for Johnsons deal is for Scotland to be excluded and remain in the EU with a guarantee of an Indy ref that all parties accept the result.
The Tory whip calculated that with the votes of all Conservative MPs, fifteen ‘Independent’ Tories plus the DUP and nine Labour rebels, then that give Johnson’s deal a majority of one.
Seems more likely than the SNP voting for Scotland to suffer the effects of a Boris Brexit. Makes an Indyref vote for Indy which we want against a Boris Brexit that we voted for.
Meet Holly. Holly is doing all the heavy lifting our indy movement needs:
link to twitter.com
Today’s events are yet to be ratified by the DUP and the House of Commons.
The concrete hasn’t been poured yet.
Jolyn Maugham reporting the motion for the vote on Saturday is doctored. They are only offering this dea! or no deal in contravention of the Benn Act.
The only chance go stop them appears to lie with the Nobile Officium st the Court of Session.
Liz g @ 3-42pm
Liz…last week someone on here renamed me ‘Tam the BARN’
Today… you’ve renamed me ‘Tam the BAN.’
I’m starting to develop a complex…lol
WHO AM I?…WHERE AM I?…IS ANY OF THIS REAL?
Saw clips of Nicola condemning this latest ruse by Boris…the rants are fine, but they always finish without the awaited “And we hereby declare what we intend to do in reply!”
It’s all just “We will go back to Westminster, where they will shout us down or walk out when we speak and the Media will treat us like soft wee dogs always wanting another bone”
We seem to be in “Well we have came this far with them, be as well seeing how it goes for another wee while” repeat loop.
Depends on the source material – I’ve heard that Boris may have 317 votes – needs 320 to win and there are currently 322 prepared to vote it down.
All hinges on the DUP and their decision could influence some ERG Tories…
All to play for, so SNP should reject it.
No abstentions form anyone on this vote – it is too tight.
@Liz
Tis a thought…. Because even if This deal fails now..Right back it comes after a General Election if Jonston wins especially with a majority
Even if vote fails..The extension isn’t guaranteed
Especially going by Boris and Junkers (not the EU leaders granted) statements.. what use the Benn Bill if EU leaders say “No Extension”…out we go…cue a happy Boris and DUP
let me ask you a straight question Stu
Do you personally, with your hand on any book you believe in,even if its dawkins god delusion actually believe in Scottish independence, or do you have all your poll evidence, at hand simply to try to sabotage things at the moment after decades of campaigning where things are falling into place. remember there has still been ‘no material change in circumstances’
I get the feeling Stu, that you have gone ice ice cold on independence.
prove me wrong Stu..try to say something positive, I suspect I will be waiting a long time.
divide and rule seems to be your only mantra these days…repeated and repeated.
I have supported this site financially for years, but no more
TV pictures of Johnson all smiles, glad handing and friendly chat with the EU leaders and officials.
Funny that since they are supposed to be the “evil empire” according to the leave campaigns.
Mike lothians 12.57pm. Which is why Wales will never win a vote on independence.
Bob Mack @3.22pm
Bob I am sure you are aware but who are the WE you talk about. Are you now a spokesperson for Wings or some other group of posters.
@Robin,
Of course Stu believes in Scottish Independence He wants to get Indy quickly. He is just as tired and fed up as many of the rest of us are.
He may have a different vision or focus on how to get there or how to deliver a Scottish Indy, than some others but he clearly supports Indy.
Tam the BAM @ 3.58
So sorry Tam my auto correct hates me! 🙂
I will try harder
You should see some of the changes that I do catch,I live in dread of one of the really offensive ones getting through..
Agree with some of the posters on here, Johnson is a snake who needs Scottish resources. Any deal wouldn’t be worth the paper its written on. GFA comes to mind.
@Cubby,
You know surely that several posters contributing to an argument with views are called “we.”
You could split a hair with a teaspoon
@Robin
A guy who has held up the mirror of truth and fact for years and yet you say the guys turned his back on the end goal.
Deary me…just cause you don’t like the message doesn’t mean you question the Messenger.
The “prove me wrong Stu..try to say something positive” smacks of a doubting disciple…careful now..don’t go all cultish
@Desimond,
Rather odd folk.
@Cubby
I have an address for adult literacy classes if your interested.
“Devil’s advocate: Could the SNP abstain in return for a S30 order?”
Hi! That’s what the article is about. It specifically mentions abstaining in paragraph 5.
BawJaws is going for a No Deal outcome – it’s as plain as flour. He knows this will be voted down and hoping he can get round Benn Act, which he won’t.
Agreement will be found by CofS to be contradictory to terms of Treaty of Union and render it incompatible thus illegal.
Clerk of Scottish CofS will issue extension request (irrespective of Junker’s pontifications) and it will be granted (with terms of GE or 2nd Ref to be held by certain date, if not you’re automatically out).
Johnson will get his GE and will win most seats but without majority (Brexit Party will prop him up). In new parliament Brexit Party will force No Deal Brexit thru.
SNP request S30 to proceed IndyRef on legally agreed basis. WM says, “This still isn’t a really good time” and refuses. SNP take UKGov to court. And win.
Brexit chaos across UK. UKGov suspends devolved administrations (indefinitely), scuppering ScotGov’s IndyRef2.
Not sure what happens next…
Is anything being said yet about the “Divorce Payments” to the EU?
That was ment to be a sticking point as well?
Did Johnston get a dazzling deal there too?
I like the idea Stu, and recognise most of the pros and cons in the ensuing “conversation”
BUT
A section 30 order is much too small a price to pay for such a monumental and risky move by the SNP and I would be dead against that.
HOWEVER I would be in favour of raising the stakes in return for the SNP voting with the tories, and instead of a section 30 order ask for a mutual dissolution of the union in return for ensuring England & Wales got the Brexit they voted for, and Scotland got “continuing state” status thus honouring our remain vote.Both deals would take effect on 31st October – how sweet would that be ?
The EU would have to agree of course – why wouldn’t they ? and the whole of both deals would be ratified on the same transition period timescale – end of 2020 with the end point of each deal being dependent on the other being completed simultaneously.
SNP could commit to holding a confirmatory referendum a few years down the line (maybe a “generation” down the line) with the option of opening negotiations to rejoin the UK. We would not have to worry about backlash in the upcoming Westminster elections because we wouldn’t take part, and the next Holyrood election is in 2021 when we would be an independent country !
The MSM and the Unionists would moan of course, but they moan at us anyway so what’s new ?
The SNP would have unequivocally achieved its primary goal and all of us old people could die happy !
“I get the feeling Stu, that you have gone ice ice cold on independence.”
Then you’re an absolute fucking imbecile. It’s the SNP who’ve gone cold on it.
“HOWEVER I would be in favour of raising the stakes in return for the SNP voting with the tories, and instead of a section 30 order ask for a mutual dissolution of the union”
Not only would Johnson never agree to that in a million years, he SHOULDN’T agree to it. Like it or not we have no democratic mandate for instant independence. We have to win a vote fair and square, even if it’s 50.0001%.
Should the SNP find themselves with the opportunity to abstain in return for full powers over Referendum and turned it down I for one would be sickened and I don’t think I could be much more sickened with their whole handling of this Brexit debacle, I’ll never understand any Independence supporter thinking that it would be the wrong thing to do, we either want Independence or we don’t, it’s that simple. as for the media having a field day with it, who really gives a toss about the media. Labour/Lib-Dems/DUP all have done and will continue to do deals that benefit them, are we meant to be so special so bloody meek and so damn polite that we can only accept Independence if the rest of the UK is hunky dory. England and Wales voted to leave and England is determined to leave come what may.
Farago just backed up what Ms Cherry taunted JRM with.
This ‘deal’ leaves the Brexiteers tipping their hats to a EU court!
It’s the Norwegian Blue deal.
Bojo is at it.
Soz Stuart, this isn’t a goer. It’s a sham to see out time.
“Clerk of Scottish CofS will issue extension request (irrespective of Junker’s pontifications) and it will be granted (with terms of GE or 2nd Ref to be held by certain date, if not you’re automatically out).”
That makes no sense whatsoever. An extension is an extension. EVERY extension so far has notionally had those terms, because every time a deadline arrives we’re supposed to be out unless we ask for another extension.
And it would be ludicrous for them to say “this is the last extension, no more after that, definitely”, because it just wouldn’t be credible when we’ve had so many already. Nobody would believe it, including the UK government.
The EU’s stance today, expressed by Juncker, has basically been “Right, that’s it, we’re sick of you, do this deal now or fuck off.”
Giving the Tories support in return for a section 30 is too cheap, the SNP should be demanding the transfer of referendum powers at least.
Even if the SNP offered Johnson a pact he’d stipulate that he’d only deliver S30 if he managed to get WA thru WM. Which he doesn’t bloody want so he’ll (secretly) have some of his own MPs to vote against the deal to ensure the SNP numbers are neutralised and the Bill fails. SNP look bad. Very, very bad. Job done. GE next.
“…SNP should be demanding the transfer of referendum powers at least.”
We already have those powers.
“The SNP just need to keep acting for their constituents. And whatever else happens, avoid any deal with the Tories.”
And what, just give up on independence?
If we support the tories to get this through,believe me the Scottish people will never trust us again. Thank goodness we have a steady hand on the tiller in NS……she will take us to the promised land.
The SNP in the eyes of the world is the YES movement so steady as she goes as the water is about to get very turbulent.
“Imagine if there was something we could do”
Yes it is, to dissolve this broken union and be done with the whole thing. The fastest way to do so is to stop brexit and to force the powers that be to see the dissolution of the union as the only possible path to avoid EU regulations.
“We’ve heard them, and they’re all rubbish”
That is your opinion. I happen to think that what you propose today here is actually even more rubbish because it gives the English establishment the consent of Scotland for brexit by the back door. In other words, you appear to support the overruling of our vote too.
I have never wondered this before Mr Campbell, but I am wondering it today: what side are you really on? I appreciate that you do not live in Scotland and the prospects without a deal and with Scotland declaring independence must be pretty dire down there, but that is not our fault. We did not vote for brexit. Scotland did not put in power the cartel of rogues that are currently representing England and causing all this havoc. You appear to give more importance to England’s democratic vote than to ours and I am afraid I cannot simply see past that.
“It’s not Scotland’s job, or our right, to override their will”
It is not Scotland’s MPs job to override our will either. We have not given them a mandate to support any kind of brexit and I will not forgive them if they do because that will be giving a desperate Westminster the consent of Scotland by the back door to impose on us a brexit we never voted for, we never asked for, we never gave a mandate for and we never gave consent for.
It is not England’s job or its right, to override our will, and yet, that is exactly what they have been doing to us for the last 5 years. Now you ask us to stop pushing for our right so England can have its own? Sorry, I cannot accept that.
This is an individual fight because Scotland and England cannot possibly both win. I am sorry you are living down south and will be seriously affected by this stupidity of brexit, but I rather Scotland win, quite frankly.
““But we’d lose an indyref that was held after we’d enabled Brexit!”
Why?”
I cannot believe you are asking this, actually. Once you have actually given consent for brexit you have just lost all reason to celebrate that independence referendum. No disrespect intended, Stu, but you are being ridiculous. You are simply bulldozing the foundations of the best case ever for independence Scotland has had in the last 300 years. I am actually quite disappointed with where this line of thinking is going.
“Why wouldn’t he?”
Are you for real?
@ProudCybernat
The UK Government and the UK Government alone can agree to Scotland holding a legal referendum. The Scottish Government do not hold these powers.
“Junker is head of the Commission. It is the EU states that get to decide if there should be any extension and its length. Junker only concerned about the deal that is on the table for now. His job is to sell the deal that exists today.”
Don’t you think Junker is better placed to have a finger on the pulse of what the other EU states are thinking, with regards to making his comment regardless of his position?
“And what, just give up on independence?”
The way of giving up on independence is by supporting this brexit deal. The SnP does not have a mandate to vote for brexit, never mind giving the consent of Scotland for Brexit by the back door.
“The way of giving up on independence is by supporting this brexit deal.”
Pish. How do we get independence without another referendum?
“The UK Government and the UK Government alone can agree to Scotland holding a legal referendum. The Scottish Government do not hold these powers.”
Presently any council in Scotland can hold a referendum on anything without WM’s ‘consent’. ScotGov are, as I write, pushing a Referendum Bill thru HR to clearly and fully establish this in law. It will be signed by Her Maj at the end of the year and, crucially, cannot be referred to the SC by UKGov since it is entirely within HR’s competence.
“Presently any council in Scotland can hold a referendum on anything without WM’s ‘consent’. ScotGov are, as I write, pushing a Referendum Bill thru HR to clearly and fully establish this in law. It will be signed by Her Maj at the end of the year and, crucially, cannot be referred to the SC by UKGov since it is entirely within HR’s competence.”
Man, all the senior QCs and constitutional lawyers who disagree with each other on this are going to be so embarrassed when they find out some random guy on the internet’s known all along.
@Tony Hay,
“She will take us to the promised land”a
The last time I heard that quote was just before Rev Jim Jones killed a thousand of his own followers in in Guyana.
They believed him tooe
You may be right though.
Bring on the No deal!
Yes 54% No 46% exc.
link to drg.global
Proud cybernat…..my mistake.
Wait until they, the Tories, announce WHO they have picked as next UK ambassador to USA….guess it will depend on who they feel they may NEED to appease if this so called ‘Deal’ is as unappetising as is being presented and will be seen as such to a certain pro Brexit party currently snapping at the Tory heels in the upcoming GE…though deal or No deal that gig, as ambassador, could very well STILL be considered for Mr Odious or one of his Brexit party compatriots…clue..business man whose girlfriend right wing hack who exposes gutter stories for the gutter press.
See after Cameron honoured (Lol) Michelle Mone….nothing but nothing seemed as if it was off the table in relation to rewarding those who were clearly the WRONG people enTITLED ( pun intended) to be rewarded….of course a Knighthood for a certain person could also appease some of the more …rabid Brexit supporters…. and indeed the individual himself….gets him off the election radar as well….would be fitting as all Brexit party ‘politicians of sort’ are Tories anyway….as is Aaron Banks & co.
BTW anyone disclosed yet the outcome of investigation as to who leaked to Oakeshott re Kim Darroch’s comments….or is she another one who is untouchable because of her…links to certain people and a certain party…..as in operation Hot Potato.
Maybe Johnson would not agree to dissolve the union, but he DEFINITELY wont if no-one suggests it to him – I wonder if Dominic Cummings might think it was a good idea ? I agree that we need a democratic mandate for independence, even 50% + 1 vote , but that’s what the confirmatory vote would do, anyhow Johnson has no democratic mandate to take Scotland out of the UK, the Tories have no democratic mandate to govern Scotland etc, etc. so why does the SNP need a majority in a referendum rather than (say) a democratic mandate in Holyrood, or a democratic mandate of more than 30 Westminster seats ?
“Don’t you think Junker is better placed to have a finger on the pulse of what the other EU states are thinking, with regards to making his comment regardless of his position?”
Junker has no say and no vote in the situation. He can give an opinion. Given that today has been about this “Newfangled Deal”.
Denmark have said this afternoon that a further deal would be possible – not aware of any other member states at this point.
link to twitter.com
Given that a week is a long time in politics, today has been another long week.
link to independent.co.uk
@Defo,
From that pol! its clear the young are on side, but as usual the over55 remaining resistant
Ghostly606 4.50pm. I wasn’t sure if Scotland held those powers or not. Because I wondered what the purpose was of asking for a S30.
‘Then you’re an absolute fucking imbecile’
fair enough…..I am ; pity that running a business helping to pay peoples mortgages, and having multiple university degrees hasn’t helped me with logical thought processes, i’m doomed obviously
what is more to the point is that you didn’t actually answer my questions…I wonder why?
must be me being such a stupid oaf as I just thought you might not try evasive tactics like being abusive and that you might have descended to my level and tried to answer the question, but no.
hey ho…live and learn, I’ll go and chew some turnips
Bob M
Then we’ll just have to scare/bribe the old b’stards.
Says he less than 2 years off 55 🙂
Lowest pensions in the OECD type stuff.
Work until you drop in the good old UK.
“I have never wondered this before Mr Campbell, but I am wondering it today: what side are you really on?”
Just so that we’re all absolutely clear, if we weren’t already:
Disagree with me on strategy all you want. Make your case. But anyone turning up on my website and suggesting that I’m some sort of fifth-columnist secretly acting against the interests of independence gets banned – no warnings, no arguments.
I don’t care who you are, or how long you’ve been commenting here, or how many fundraisers you’ve donated to. It will absolutely not be tolerated. I’ve taken too much shit in the last eight years to put up with that here. You’ve been told.
It would be difficult to conceive of any other deal more likely to get people to vote for Scottish independence.
Big thanks to Leo Varadkar, Mary-Lou, Simon Coveney and the gang in Ireland for holding their nerve. Boris will either win support for deal this on Saturday, or push it though after the election on English votes
Thank God we have an outstanding individual like Nicola to manage this difficult course over the next few days.
I can see the DUP losing North and South Belfast and possibly South Antrim over this – ending up with a minority of Unionist MP’s in NI for the first time.
Lets hope Stu does not bust a blood vessel in the meantime
Meanwhile on planet Breeks, far, far away, the SNP doesn’t abstain, or vote to ‘maybe’ bring down Boris Johnson’s ‘deal’, but instead lodges a Constitutional veto against Boris Jonhnson’s Deal, denouncing it as unlawful, unconstitutional, and asymmetrically prejudicial to the interests of Scotland.
The Constitutional challenge doesn’t stop at Brexit, but extends to the litany of breaches to the Act of Union, some historic, some recent, which, granted some were approved by supine ‘Scottish’ parties, but when taken altogether, have now rendered the Articles of Union unrecognisable, and thus unenforceable, and without the further tacit acquiescence of a puppet Scottish Government, (a situation no longer applicable), the flagrantly unconstitutional OUTRAGE of Brexit and the breathtaking arrogance of both Westminster and the EU riding roughshod over Scotland’s Constitutional Interests, means that ANY Brexit Agreement will be challenged by Scotland in a UN Constitutional Courtroom as unlawful Colonial Subjugation of a Sovereign Nation, and flagrant disregard for various Articles in a binding treaty flouted.
Vote for Johnson’s Deal? Sir, I would burn it, and use it as a taper to set light to the Union itself.
“Thank God we have an outstanding individual like Nicola to manage this difficult course over the next few days.”
*sit around with her thumb up her arse desperately hoping that something miraculous falls in her lap somehow
“Man, all the senior QCs and constitutional lawyers who disagree with each other on this are going to be so embarrassed when they find out some random guy on the internet’s known all along.”
A Referendum Bill. I said nothing about the S30. That’s yet to be tested in a court – as you well know.
A few random guys on the internet:
link to twitter.com
link to weegingerdug.wordpress.com
This may be academic as it isn’t clear to me that Boris has the numbers on his side even with SNP support…which doesn’t look likely as things stand.
This mess may well result in a s30 but it could come from Corbyn/Labour rather than Boris. Trouble is the former change their mind on an hourly basis and the latter is about as trustworthy as a wild weasel down the front of one’s trousers.
“Vote for Johnson’s Deal? Sir, I would burn it, and use it as a taper to set light to the Union itself.”
Good luck with that.
“This may be academic as it isn’t clear to me that Boris has the numbers on his side even with SNP support…which doesn’t look likely as things stand.”
Every assessment anyone’s made so far suggests that he’d PROBABLY win it if the SNP abstained, and would DEFINITELY win it if they voted for it.
“A Referendum Bill. I said nothing about the S30. That’s yet to be tested in a court – as you well know.”
As the saying goes: a tiny bit of knowledge about a different subject, based on a failure to understand WHY it’s a different subject, is a dangerous thing.
Thanks for the reminder, Robin.
” Boris will either win support for deal this on Saturday, or push it though after the election on English votes”
Given that Boris has follow T. May plan of running down the clock, keeping details secret to prevent derailment and made it a Noel Edmond’s “Deal or No Deal”, we could yet see Boris bring back his deal for a second vote to get his preferred answer at the end of the month.
An election is still possible, but Boris is at least for now going through Parliament. Everything is still up in the air and this may only be the first vote.
Seems like a good time to put this out again:
link to ukconstitutionallaw.org
that’s without the Referendums (Scotland) Bill to make it easier, quicker and strengthen it.
“As the saying goes: a tiny bit of knowledge about a different subject, based on a failure to understand WHY it’s a different subject, is a dangerous thing.”
There’s no such saying. But anyway – ScotGov are pushing thru a Referendum Bill to have Royal Assent by the end of the year. That will legally permit ScotGov to hold a referendum on ANY issue. FACT.
Tell me where Andrew Tickell is wrong?
Did I hear Mr Junker just say that negotiations can move on and they can discuss the EU’s
Access to UK Fishing grounds?
Read Scotland’s fishing grounds Bertie!
He won’t go for it.
England needs Scotland.
“Tell me where Andrew Tickell is wrong?”
He’s not wrong. You haven’t fucking understood what he said. As I already noted.
“that’s without the Referendums (Scotland) Bill to make it easier, quicker and strengthen it”
The R(S)B has exactly this much impact on the Scotland Act which determines the legality of an independence referendum:
None whatsoever.
No doubt someone has said this already, but, just in case, I’m going to point it out in any case:
Johnson would refuse a deal with the SNP over support for an S30 in exchange for supporting Johnson now because he doesn’t give a shit about getting a deal, and he never has.
In fact, he’s now got what he wants – the EU saying there will be no extension if the current deal is not accepted. Now he can not get a deal, ask for an extension and not get it, and Brexit on 30 October. Then he can call an election, if he wants, and win it by a landslide, by saying that he “got Brexit done” despite MPs trying to stop him.