Wings Over Scotland

Over the last few days, for want of anything more interesting happening in Scottish politics, we’ve been reviewing some of the entertainingly fluid criteria by which Unionist politicians used to assert that Scotland could supposedly achieve independence. But we hadn’t seen this one before:

A view apparently “almost universally shared among English Tory backbenchers” back in the late 1980s was that independence could be won by the SNP securing a majority of Scottish MPs at not one but two successive UK general elections.

Given that that line has now been crossed in THREE Westminster elections in a row, we’re all agog to find where Boris Johnson will move the goalposts to in his keenly-awaited response to the Scottish Government’s second Section 30 request, which he’s due to deliver any minute now.

We’ve never been able to actually confirm the oft-cited “quote” from Margaret Thatcher suggesting that the SNP winning a majority of Scottish seats at a UK election would constitute a mandate for independence, but here’s a verified more recent one from a then-serving Conservative PM.

“[John] Major has made it clear that a majority of SNP MPs after an election would serve as a mandate to begin negotiations for separation. There are no plans to hold a referendum”, said former Thatcher minister and party chairman Norman Tebbit a few months before the 1997 election.

It was a position the Tories held right up to 2010 – the last election at which the SNP didn’t win a majority of Scottish seats, at which point the goalposts magically shifted. Now, of course, the rule is that a majority of MPs doesn’t count, but you also can’t have a referendum.

Scotland is a prisoner without hope of parole. Time for a breakout.

From less than 10 years ago:

A plebiscitary election? Now there’s an idea you don’t hear much any more.

We got blocked by LBC’s James O’Brien today for very gently and politely challenging him over this tweet:

And while this site most assuredly carries no torch for Jeremy Corbyn, it’s a reframing of reality that merits a bit of investigation for what it tells us about the UK media.

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Yesterday we posted an article noting that hardline trans-rights extremists, among whose number we must regretfully count the Scottish Government, were engaged in a determined and alarmingly successful attempt to abolish the scientific basis for reality.

We did not expect such a striking illustration of that assertion to arrive this soon.

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Last night a bomb went off in British politics. It utterly destroyed the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties, and may have fatally weakened the foundations of the UK itself – Northern Ireland now has a majority of nationalist MPs for the first time in its history, and over 80% of Scottish seats went to the SNP.

As this site had been warning for months and months, the patience of English and Welsh voters with Parliament refusing to implement their 2016 vote to leave the EU finally snapped. Some wildly improbable Labour seats – including the constituency of Grenfell Tower, for God’s sake – went to the Tories, especially in Wales and the north of England, in order to “Get Brexit Done”.

The Lib Dems, the only UK party with a clear (okay, fairly clear) Remain position and with a minimum of 48% of the electorate to target, somehow contrived to LOSE seats, not only compared to their 21-MP starting point (bolstered by defectors since the last election) but compared to the 12 MPs they won in the 2017 election itself.

And the SNP? Well, the SNP failed too.

Because having expressly told voters that the election wasn’t about independence but about stopping Brexit, they won 13 more seats, but seats which have zero leverage at Westminster and will be able to do absolutely nothing to prevent the UK leaving the EU seven weeks from now. For all Scotland’s renewed “STOP BREXIT” message, Brexit will not be stopped. The UK, and Scotland with it, will depart next month.

We can’t help but note at this point that if the party had taken our advice and done a deal with the Tories in October to let Brexit pass in return for Section 30 powers, we’d now have an indyref in the bag (which we’d win) and as a parting gift to our southern kin we’d also have saved England from having a thumping great Tory majority for the foreseeable future.

Hindsight, eh?

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Today is – thanks be to God and all that is holy – the last day of the worst general election in recorded human history, and indeed perhaps the worst thing of any kind to have happened in the UK since the Blitz.

In less than 24 hours many of us will go out to vote. But then what?

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There are just under 36 hours until the 2019 general election.

God help us all.