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Archive for the ‘psephology’


Beware of liars 337

Posted on June 15, 2022 by

Even when you’re retired, some things are too journalistically offensive to let pass, such as this piece of absolute garbage we just saw from The National today.

The paper’s anonymous reporter set off all our red warning lights at once.

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Progress update 1,173

Posted on April 13, 2022 by

In slightly over a month from now, Nicola Sturgeon will overtake Alex Salmond as the longest-serving First Minister of Scotland. It seemed a reasonable time to take stock.

It’s very nearly six years since the Sunday Herald headline above from 1 May 2016. (Remember the Sunday Herald, readers? It feels like another lifetime, doesn’t it?)

April/early May is very often the period leading up to an election, which is when the SNP traditionally ramp up the carrot-dangling about independence to secure the votes of the faithful for yet another “cast-iron mandate”, so it’s not a bad barometer. Let’s see how far we’ve come.

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The Hardest Vote 309

Posted on May 06, 2021 by

We’d actually planned to leave Chris Cairns’ fabulous cartoon at the top of the front page all day today, but this post is important so we’re putting it in here again (no, Chris, you don’t get paid twice) so we can say this.

Because no matter how much you hate the Unionist parties or certain of their individual MSPs, if you want Alba MSPs elected today there are several seats where you really, really can’t afford to vote SNP on the constituency ballot.

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Panic attacks 569

Posted on March 27, 2021 by

Any time you’re not sure whether something that happens in Scottish politics is good or bad for the cause of independence, here’s a top tip for you: see how the enemies of independence feel about it.

“Running scared” would seem to be a fair, if understated, summary.

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For old times’ sake 328

Posted on March 17, 2021 by

We enjoyed doing this site a lot more when it was the dishonesty of Unionists and the Unionist media, not the SNP, that represented the main threat to independence. So let’s make like it’s the old days, just this once.

Because today has seen the Scottish press falling over itself once again to trumpet the latest joke poll from notorious idiots Scotland In Union as if it was at all meaningful:

And of course it’s purest garbage.

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Venus and Mars 220

Posted on January 18, 2021 by

In 2014, it was women who stopped Scotland becoming independent.

But it was still a man’s fault, of course. Those of us who were around at the time, while many of the SNP’s earnest young activists of today were still squeezing their spots, will recall a multitude of media articles on how it was apparently the fairer sex’s personal antipathy to Alex Salmond that was responsible for the No camp’s victory.

And who knows, maybe that was true and maybe it wasn’t. We have no idea. But what we do know is that you can’t have it both ways.

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How to waste your vote 255

Posted on August 13, 2020 by

We’ve been having a closer look at the latest polling for next year’s Holyrood election (YouGov, from this week), and in particular the list numbers. We thought you might be interested in a little stat from them.

That’s the full breakdown. But that’s not the graphic that really tells the story.

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An all-time low 142

Posted on November 08, 2019 by

Try to ignore the “regional”, and the fact that it’s framed as the Tories vs Labour. This is a new full-sample (1060) poll from YouGov today, and wow.

(The left-hand bar in each pair is 2017, the right-hand one is 2019.)

And you thought Kezia Dugdale’s nadir of 14% would never be beaten.

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Flying with Wings 619

Posted on September 18, 2019 by

As the mandate for a second independence referendum currently sits gathering dust in the SNP vaults, discussion has started on ways to generate some movement. One of these has been the possibility of a Wings political party being set up to campaign for Holyrood list seats, which has generated rather a lot of attention.

Various pundits have been loudly vocal about the perceived pros and cons, but I’ve been extremely dissatisfied – in particular with those dismissing the value of a Wings party – with the quality of evidence and analysis that they’ve produced to justify their negative opinion. So I thought I’d use my day-job skills in commercial data science to analyse and understand the benefits, or otherwise, of the idea.

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Narrow windows 433

Posted on September 08, 2019 by

Supporters of the opposition’s plan to block a no-deal Brexit have been proclaiming vindication this weekend over a couple of polls which show significantly lower support for the Tories, and a lead for Labour, in the event that a general election is called after 31 October with Brexit not having happened.

In that scenario, Tory voters tell pollsters that they’re more likely to defect to the Brexit Party, and the resulting split in the Brexit vote appears to point towards a Labour-led government if you plug the figures into a site like Electoral Calculus.

The reality is much more complicated than that. But what we’re specifically interested in is how it would affect the chances of securing a second indyref, so let’s take a look.

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The British sense of fair play 159

Posted on September 07, 2019 by

We’ve talked about this subject before, but a couple of findings in a new poll today by Survation really caught our eye.

And that tells us something quite profound about the UK’s voters.

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The enemies of democracy 316

Posted on August 15, 2019 by

This poll from Opinium came out a few days ago, but didn’t get as much attention as people might normally have expected, possibly because it was presented in a very difficult-to-follow graphical form. So we’ve sorted it out, and also added in the missing Lib Dem voters.

The takeaway is that a clear majority of voters both in Scotland and the UK now believe that the UK government should accept the Scottish Government’s request for a second independence referendum.

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    • Hatey McHateface on Coping with change: “he plans war Try to keep up, Mac, or try to drop your habit of denial. The war started two…Oct 8, 16:18
    • James Gardner on Things happen slowly: “Kinlochleven Smelter Fiasco ???Oct 8, 16:11
    • Hatey McHateface on Coping with change: “For many folk it’s an obvious no-brainer. Bills will come down once the multi-billion (trillion?) investment in all the infrastructure…Oct 8, 16:06
    • Hatey McHateface on Coping with change: “12 hours, Geri. Remember, he’s half Scottish. Do the math!Oct 8, 15:58
    • Geri on Coping with change: “He’ll solve it in 24 hours cause he has no choice. He’s discovered he isn’t fighting defenceless unarmed civilians &…Oct 8, 15:26
    • Republicofscotland on Coping with change: “GB Energy, won’t reduce your electricity bills – it will however – use public money to help subsides the energy…Oct 8, 15:22
    • Rev. Stuart Campbell on Coping with change: ““You’re a technical person, implement a better solution.” Hi, I don’t think we’ve met.Oct 8, 15:03
    • sarah on Coping with change: “It was obvious, Mac. I believe from previous comments that AA is not a supporter of Scotland regaining its rightful…Oct 8, 14:14
    • Mac on Coping with change: “No not really. I was being sarcastic about Swinney. He’s a useless cunt. I thought would be obvious!Oct 8, 13:53
    • Geri on The whole caboodle: “I remember when I first started commenting rather than lurking & that one didn’t exactly lay out the welcome mat.…Oct 8, 13:36
    • James on The whole caboodle: “Have you ever been banned then, Andy?Oct 8, 13:09
    • Geri on Coping with change: “Aye as Kev, the dug food salesman said, a long time ago, its mean not to share. It was akin…Oct 8, 13:09
    • James on Things happen slowly: “Erm, what Scottish international container port does all the whisky depart from then, Aidan?Oct 8, 12:57
    • Upteenth Steve on Coping with change: “Any chance of blacker writing? Gray on white is very cool and all that but black on white is easier…Oct 8, 12:26
    • Dan on Coping with change: “1st point: You overlook that some folk did stand as non-party affiliated candidates in the recent GE. They were always…Oct 8, 12:09
    • Southernbystander on Coping with change: “I object to the +/- buttons only giving a cumulative total.Oct 8, 12:09
    • Ruby on Coping with change: “It’s an improvement on the old system. Not too keen on the ‘Awaiting for approval’ malarky but that’s the price…Oct 8, 11:42
    • Jay on Coping with change: “Have been intending to join your discussions in support of national self-determination in principle and practice, also very keen to…Oct 8, 11:19
    • Dode on The whole caboodle: “Isolationist is a word beloved of unionists, is it nor?Oct 8, 11:11
    • Dode on The whole caboodle: “More immigration and English custom officers on theTweed?Oct 8, 11:10
    • Geri on The whole caboodle: ““Geri’s simplistic and deeply conspiracy theory addled worldview is on on a par with those insisting that sinister cabals control…Oct 8, 11:09
    • Stuart MacKay on Coping with change: “He claims to be able to solve the U problem in 24 hours so to compensate he has to look…Oct 8, 11:07
    • Alan Austin on Coping with change: “Really?? A FM who thinks if his mate steals £11,500 from the Scottish Electorate its ok if he pays it…Oct 8, 11:05
    • Cuilean on Things happen slowly: ““Things happen slowly, then all at once”. I hope so. But I have little faith left in the Crown Office…Oct 8, 10:36
    • Mac on Coping with change: “As for Trump, he is resembling Inspector Clouseau bumbling his way around avoiding a series of comical assassination attempts through…Oct 8, 10:33
    • Hatey McHateface on Coping with change: “Good summary, Mac. NOT!!! Please step away from anything to do with running Scotland in the real world. I don’t…Oct 8, 10:26
    • Geri on Coping with change: “You’re obsessed. & No it isn’t an accurate description. They were continually offered a peace deal from day one. He’s…Oct 8, 10:15
    • Mac on Coping with change: “Seems to me like the Ir@nians were demonstrating two key things in the space of a few days of each…Oct 8, 09:59
    • Hatey McHateface on Coping with change: “That’s an accurate summary of Pres P in para 1, Geri. After that you kinda lost it. You need to…Oct 8, 09:51
    • Garavelli Princip on Things happen slowly: “That makes sense, Harry. And reassuring – if that’s what happens!Oct 8, 09:50
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