First Minister’s Questions today (featuring stand-in FM John Swinney in a theatrical mood) was one long howl of “TOO WEE AND TOO POOR!”, with both Ruth Davidson and Kezia Dugdale using all of their questions to hark back to oil revenue forecasts from 2013 and insist that an independent Scotland would face economic apocalypse.
It was a dispiriting spectacle, and we found ourselves experiencing (not for the first time) pangs of sympathy for the remaining tiny rump of Scottish Labour voters, who must surely watch in broken despair at the antics of the hapless pack of squawking diddies representing their views in the Parliament.
The one great pillar of the argument against Scottish independence – greater than not being allowed into the EU, greater than being forced to barter with beads and potatoes because we wouldn’t have a currency, greater than losing Doctor Who or having the Chinese take their pandas back – is the economy.
Scotland is far too wee and too poor to be independent, they say – while indignantly denying that they’re saying it – because we only survive now thanks to a vast bailout every year from the rest of the UK, by which they in fact mean England. (Because it’s sure as heck not coming from Wales or Northern Ireland, which by any measure you care to choose are far poorer than Scotland.)
The name and size of this bailout vary wildly. Sometimes it’s a “deficit”, sometimes it’s a “black hole”, sometimes it’s a “fiscal transfer”, and it can be £8bn, £9bn, £10bn, £15bn, £28bn, £32bn or any other figure up to a hundred and eleventy thousand million bajillion squillion depending on who you’re talking to.
(The last one’s probably either David Coburn or Jackie Baillie.)
And while there are a dozen separate and compelling reasons why that argument is complete rubbish, none of them have any traction with diehard Unionists determined to believe that one of the richest and most blessed nations on Earth couldn’t possibly manage its own affairs like, say, Latvia or Ireland or Kuwait or Slovakia can.
But it turns out there IS a – surprisingly simple – way to get Unionists to categorically deny that England subsidises Scotland. You just have to ask them.
Fear and lies work. Over many decades (and really for centuries) the Unionist parties and the media have succeeded in persuading a large percentage of Scots that they’re beggars, scroungers, vagrants and “subsidy junkies” dependent on the ever-generous charity of England to keep them from starvation.
And in terms of the facts, that hasn’t always been an easy sell.
We originally wrote this article in March, in response to the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (better known as GERS) figures for 2014-15. We’ve updated it to take account of events since that time, of which there’s been one rather major one.
Today saw the publication (just five months after the 2014-15 GERS) of the 2015-16 stats, which are again triggering a convulsive orgy of “BLACK HOLE!” articles across the media, as every Unionist in the land falls over themselves to portray their own country as a useless scrounging subsidy junkie without actually using the exact words “too wee, too poor, too stupid”.
And once again, everywhere you look there’s a “Proud Scot” screaming about how the figures – showing an essentially unchanged “deficit” despite an almost £2bn fall in oil revenue – destroy a case for independence that those same people have spent most of the last four years stridently insisting never existed in the first place.
Today’s Sunday Times didn’t bother with any subtlety in its signalling of how people should expect the Scottish media to handle next week’s GERS figures.
There’ll be nothing but repeats of all last year’s articles in the papers, so there doesn’t seem to be much point in re-writing all the rebuttals. We’d advise readers not to expect to hear any of the facts or arguments in any of the above articles aired on TV or radio discussions of the new figures either. For the sake of your blood pressure, it’s probably best to stick to old QI repeats on Dave for the next eight days.
Some of you will have missed this over the weekend:
Yes – Michelle Mone, of all the people on Earth, really did just go on TV and accuse Nicola Sturgeon of being all about ego. We’ll leave you to absorb that for a bit.
[EDIT 24 August 2016: This article has now been updated here.]
It’s Sunday, so there is of course one last convulsive orgy of “BLACK HOLE!” articles in all the papers, as every Unionist hack and pundit in the land falls over themselves to portray their own country as a useless scrounging subsidy junkie without actually using the exact words “too wee, too poor, too stupid”.
Everywhere you look there’s a “Proud Scot” screaming about how Scottish revenue this year being 1% lower than it was last year has comprehensively demolished a case for independence that those same people have spent most of the last four years stridently insisting never existed in the first place.
So before everyone moves on to a new “SCOTLAND BAD” next week, we thought it was worth a short recap of what we’ve learned about a devolved Scotland’s financial books this week.
Economics: The art of explaining why all of your models fail to accurately predict either the future or the past.
It’s the time of year again when everyone glances at the first page of a dense booklet of complex economic data and immediately starts using it to make wild forecasts and proclamations despite the long-known problems with doing so.
So it’s also, once again, time to try looking a little further to tease out some details that others might have – let’s be generous here – accidentally missed.
This year’s GERS figures will be published today, purporting to illustrate the financial relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK. With oil revenues down, they’ll undoubtedly provoke an orgasmic explosion of glee among Unionists crowing about “black holes” and how Scotland is too wee, too poor and too stupid to survive alone.
We’ve already run an extremely detailed explanation of all the flaws and booby-traps in GERS, but of course we’re a pro-independence website and we would say that. So instead we’ll direct you to someone who’s very much NOT on our side.
Below is a 17-minute section of this afternoon’s John Beattie show on BBC Radio Scotland, featuring me and an amateur blogger with a keen interest in Pedigree Chum discussing the effect of the lower oil price on the Scottish economy.
So that’s genuine progress – next time some frothing Yoon screams “OIL PRICE! BLACK HOLE! SNP LIES! TOO WEE, TOO POOR!” at you, you can direct them here for categorical agreement from the Yes and No sides alike that actually the falling oil price makes an independent Scotland MORE economically viable, not less.
Unfortunately you’ll have to put up with a condescending, patronising arse sniggering randomly throughout, but it’s a relatively small price to pay.
Hatey McHateface on According As We Need Them: “Nice try, NC, but easily discounted, as you have failed to provide any evidence for your assertion that Scotland’s high…” Jul 14, 16:01
Hatey McHateface on According As We Need Them: ““Scotland as a Lunatic Asylum” When Confused writes on a subject so aligned with his own, lived experience, it behoves…” Jul 14, 15:51
Hatey McHateface on Just Good Friends: “Another post from Confused enthusing over the idea of a bankrupt and socially fractured England just south of our unprotected…” Jul 14, 15:47
Confused on According As We Need Them: “mythology – when Edward 1 stole the stone of destiny it was to make himself legitimate, for a “true king”…” Jul 14, 15:21
James Cheyne on According As We Need Them: “Northcode. The trouble with ignorance is that it can, if left unfettered become an indoctrination of the mind. Even if…” Jul 14, 15:01
Insider on Just Good Friends: “James at 2:34 If you know “exactly what they mean” why do you misuse them ?” Jul 14, 14:58
James on Just Good Friends: “I also recognise the scratchings of a supercilious c**t when I see them…..” Jul 14, 14:43
James on Just Good Friends: “I know exactly what these words mean, smart arse. Knew that highers exam would come in handy someday.” Jul 14, 14:34
Insider on Just Good Friends: “James 12:47… Do you know what the words “refute” and “bespoke” mean ??? Apparently not !” Jul 14, 13:50
sarah on According As We Need Them: “I am not quite as pessimistic, Lorn! If enough good people get into Holyrood they will tell the civil servants…” Jul 14, 13:41
Lorrn on According As We Need Them: “Caveman: because we allowed our common decency and sense of fairness to dominate our older, more innate and evolutionary senses…” Jul 14, 13:32
Lorn on According As We Need Them: “It is not only the candidate who have to be selected very carefully to weed out the incompetent – and…” Jul 14, 13:14
Lorn on According As We Need Them: “Indeed, Sarah, and I have stated quite clearly that I would vote for any of them if they were to…” Jul 14, 13:04
James on Just Good Friends: “Don’t refute them, Alf. These are the geniuses that will tell you that GERS is bespoke economics.” Jul 14, 12:47
GM on According As We Need Them: “I hope so, they aren’t going to resign – the courts, despite the procurator fiscal being unreliable, is the only…” Jul 14, 12:12
sam on According As We Need Them: “Rooting out this woke nonsense is Sisyphean. For Women Scotland are taking the EHRC to task over its wokeness. https://forwomen.scot/30/06/2025/ehrc-code-of-practice-2025/…” Jul 14, 12:05
Northcode on According As We Need Them: “There are, according to the French, five classes of bourgeoisie; le petite, la moyenne, le grande, le haute, and l’ancien.…” Jul 14, 12:00
sam on According As We Need Them: “From MBM Policy https://murrayblackburnmackenzie.org/2025/07/11/prisons-in-scotland-who-is-responsible/ “On 25 April, following the judgment in the UK Supreme Court, we wrote to Angela Constance…” Jul 14, 11:55
Anthem on According As We Need Them: “Probably true Scot but what can we do about it? They are a law unto themselves with full political support.…” Jul 14, 11:18
Alf Baird on According As We Need Them: “Dinna forget oor 19 “charitable trojan horses” masquerading as ‘Scottish’ universities, aye run by the ‘great and good’ appointees from…” Jul 14, 10:56
Chas on Just Good Friends: “906. Getting close Alfie Boy. How exciting!” Jul 14, 10:13
Anthem on According As We Need Them: “As would any political party with their current policies.” Jul 14, 10:12
Alf Baird on Just Good Friends: “Clutching at straws there. Baltic states do not have the resources or exclusive economic zone Scotland has, and is deprived…” Jul 14, 09:42
Scot Finlayson on According As We Need Them: “`The charity industry in Scotland handles over £15 billion of income each year` 40% and over goes on staff wages.…” Jul 14, 09:00
James Cheyne on According As We Need Them: “All ill’s and ailments have a foundational beginning, if not recognised and dealt with the illness becomes progressive.” Jul 14, 08:55
James Cheyne on According As We Need Them: “All politicians seem to be using 1984 as their new go too cult bible. When Scotland comes to terms with…” Jul 14, 08:52
Aidan on Just Good Friends: “Yes – if the English were forced to pay the highest possible retail rate (the figure you use is above…” Jul 14, 08:10
Aidan on Just Good Friends: “You also of course exclude Finland, similar in population size to Scotland and around the same GDP, higher GDP per…” Jul 14, 08:01
Aidan on Just Good Friends: “Ireland’s GDP is distorted by base erosion and profit shifting, and by the impact of depreciating assets (like aircraft) that…” Jul 14, 07:54