We don’t have much to say about this graph that it doesn’t say for itself.
The arrest of Peter Murrell on 5 April 2023, just a couple of weeks after his wife had realised the game was up and walked away before the cops came round and put a big blue tent up on their front garden, changed everything in Scottish politics.
The number of parties who got MSPs elected at the last election is… five. (Though in fairness there are now six, Reform having a single MSP after Graham Simpson defected from the Tories. The Lib Dems are even outnumbered by independents, of whom there are seven.)
That got us to thinking about which leaders in the Scottish Parliament era have made a significant difference (in either direction) to the fortunes of their parties, and from there it was pretty short work to illustrate it in the form of a graph.
Lacking anything better to do on a grey and cloudy day in Bath, we thought it might be a lark to go through every Holyrood constituency in Scotland and contemplate where it might go in next year’s election, based on the current state of polling.
And just to make things interesting, compared to our last assessment we’re going to give opposition parties the (often considerable) benefit of the doubt in a few seats for the sheer heck of it, and see if there’s any even slightly plausible outcome that means the SNP might win some list seats if all their voters vote for them on both ballots, or if they’ll waste a million votes for nothing and get dozens of Unionists elected like they did in 2021. [SPOILER: don’t prepare yourself for a surprise.]
Warning: despite the quite zingy title this is actually going to be a very dry stats post, readers. It is, on the other hand, based on a man having something disturbingly close to a complete psychotic mental breakdown, so there’s always that for a bit of colour.
Because the paragraph above, and in particular the highlighted part, is without a doubt the most dishonest, diametrically false and wildly extreme lie about Scottish politics that we’ve ever seen anyone tell in the 13.5 years of Wings Over Scotland’s existence.
Because, for startlingly obvious reasons, even the SNP hasn’t had the brass neck to do a general fundraiser for this election, with the police’s inquiries still going on into the whereabouts of the cash from their last big appeals.
But in fact the party has managed to wring over £100,000 from the most gullible of its remaining supporters in the days since the election was announced. It’s just been a bit more subtle about it.
(Including but not limited to International Day Against Homophobia, Transphobia and Biphobia; International Pronouns Day; International Transgender Day Of Visibility; Transgender Awareness Week and of course the whole of “Pride Month”, which is now an almost entirely trans-focused event).
Citizens of Scotland and the UK were solemnly instructed to “remember the many trans people whose lives have been tragically cut short by violence”, although weirdly none of the politicians issuing the orders actually named any.
However, since we’re endlessly being told that trans people are the most marginalised, oppressed and vulnerable members of our society, and that an actual “trans genocide” is currently in progress, we expect there have been loads.
Today is the last day of Nicola Sturgeon’s record-breaking reign as First Minister of Scotland. In a few hours we’ll know who is to succeed her in the role. She was only the second SNP occupant of Bute House, and the legacy she bequeaths compared to the one she inherited from Alex Salmond is a matter of measureable record.
Hatey McHateface on The Love Of Big Brother: “The cheek of her to complain. When she’s looking so well, hale and hearty on the very fare she’s complaining…” Oct 5, 19:59
Hatey McHateface on There May Be Justice: “Your selectively cropped quotation is blindingly obvious, Alf. Not quite the best way for an academic to impress his peers.…” Oct 5, 19:54
Aidan on The Love Of Big Brother: “The right to self-determination is indeed universal and inalienable, but outside of a military occupation or colonialism (neither of which…” Oct 5, 19:49
Hatey McHateface on The Love Of Big Brother: “Which is going to break up first then, Alf? The UK or Orcland?” Oct 5, 19:14
Alf Baird on There May Be Justice: ““Scotland is the mess it is because it isn’t independent” Indeed so. Colonialism is ‘a Manichaean world’ (Fanon) where light…” Oct 5, 19:14
Hatey McHateface on There May Be Justice: “Don’t waste your time. The list of independent, corrupt countries is longer than both your arms.” Oct 5, 19:10
Hatey McHateface on The Love Of Big Brother: “Very happy indeed to be a white man, Confused. Equally happy for you to self identify as something inferior. Long…” Oct 5, 19:00
Al-Stuart on There May Be Justice: “. The whimpering sound of something curled up in a mingin, damp, dirty corner is wee James Kelly crying himself…” Oct 5, 18:55
Alf Baird on The Love Of Big Brother: “” Article 2 guarantees the territorial integrity and political independence of all member states.” Which only applies if the state…” Oct 5, 18:50
Lorncal on The Love Of Big Brother: “H McH: we have had a nationalist government for around 20 years of over 300 years in the Union, so,…” Oct 5, 18:38
Dave on There May Be Justice: “The SNP’s entire raison d’être and defining mission should have always been about just one thing: independence for Scotland. However,…” Oct 5, 17:32
100%Yes on There May Be Justice: “Well done Rev. Hopefully history being made.” Oct 5, 17:21
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on There May Be Justice: “Attempt at a Gaelic version of the above – AN RÒS BEAG GEAL Chan eil mo shùil air ròs an…” Oct 5, 17:12
Northcode on There May Be Justice: “For those interested, a Scottish judicial review typically takes 6–18 months from lodging the petition to a final decision, depending…” Oct 5, 17:05
Rev. Stuart Campbell on In The Eyes Of The Law: “For the reasons explained in last week’s post about it. Does anyone bother reading past the fucking headline?” Oct 5, 16:22
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Love Of Big Brother: ““I thought the introduction of these rules matched those already in place in England and Wales from a year ago.”…” Oct 5, 16:20
holymacmoses on There May Be Justice: “The Scottish people owe yourself, Roddy, David and Lynne and no doubt a few more ‘good men’, a huge debt…” Oct 5, 15:44
Gordoz on There May Be Justice: “Q- Why do I always end up agreeing with Rev Campbell ?? A- Turns out he is pretty much the…” Oct 5, 15:44
Northcode on There May Be Justice: ““This is about being a country worthy of independence…” It could be argued that Scotland is the mess it is…” Oct 5, 15:28
panda paws on There May Be Justice: ““So please don’t donate any more money at this stage, unless you ARE one of said eccentric billionaires” I’m not…” Oct 5, 15:22
TURABDIN on There May Be Justice: “There are two mindsets. The one that operates from the general to the particular and one that operates in the…” Oct 5, 15:01
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on There May Be Justice: “Willie writes (5 Oct 2026 at 1:09 pm): « This one’s for Moira…Democracy is a fragile flower » —————- Brings…” Oct 5, 13:53
Terry on There May Be Justice: “Proud to be part of this – especially when I complained to the police about the donations I gave, got…” Oct 5, 13:25
Aidan on The Love Of Big Brother: “Yes “Confused” – an accurate and concise description description of the formation of Great Britain is “irrelevant pedantry”, whereas your…” Oct 5, 13:23
Ian on The Love Of Big Brother: “People in glass houses……. https://archive.ph/3OAhZ” Oct 5, 13:12
Willie on There May Be Justice: “This one’s for Moira. Yes, that struck a cord. Justice has to be served for what was done to Alex…” Oct 5, 13:09
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on The Love Of Big Brother: “SARA SALYERS: NO KINGDOM NO UNION (3 Oct 2026) www.youtube.com/watch?v=4l6XDoIg4uI” Oct 5, 12:30
Northcode on The Love Of Big Brother: “For clarity: Q: Is Scotland a country? A: YES Q: Is England a country? A: YES Q: Is Scotland a…” Oct 5, 11:58
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on The Love Of Big Brother: “Professor ROBERT BLACK KC GENEVA SPEECH (18 Sept 2025) www.youtube.com/watch?v=PGvHUWYNyGM” Oct 5, 11:42
Captain Caveman on The Love Of Big Brother: “”Orwell’s ‘authoritarianism’ is essentially colonialism” You don’t say. Probably a lot easier at this juncture if you can bloody tell…” Oct 5, 11:26