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Panic attacks

Posted on March 27, 2021 by

Any time you’re not sure whether something that happens in Scottish politics is good or bad for the cause of independence, here’s a top tip for you: see how the enemies of independence feel about it.

“Running scared” would seem to be a fair, if understated, summary.

But you know that you’ve properly put the frighteners on people when they start telling really big lies the day after the event.

There’s no uniform definition for the term, but the lowest possible figure we’ve ever seen given for “supermajority” is 67%, and that’s what the Scottish Parliament uses.

In Holyrood that means 87 votes. So what percentage of votes would the SNP need to achieve a supermajority by itself, as Angus Robertson today claims is possible?

We’ll give them the best possible chance (and keep the arithmetic as simple as we can) by assuming they were to somehow win every single one of the 73 constituency seats, even though there’s zero chance of that happening – the best they’ve ever actually done is 59 in 2016.

That would mean they needed another 14 seats from the regional lists to get their supermajority, plus a couple more for luck since such a Parliament would almost certainly lose one SNP MSP to the role of Presiding Officer – to keep it tidy call it 16, or two per region.

So let’s take a look at a couple of regions and see how that would work in practice.

The SNP’s strongest region historically is North East Scotland.

But despite securing 45% of the list vote there in 2016 they got no seats, because they won 9 of the 10 constituencies in the region, meaning their list vote was effectively divided by 10.

The seven list seats were allocated on these votes:

SEAT 1: Conservative (42,924 votes)
SEAT 2: Labour (38,791 votes)
SEAT 3: Conservative (28,616 votes)
SEAT 4: Conservative (21,462 votes)
SEAT 5: Labour (19,396 votes)
SEAT 6: Lib Dem (18,444 votes)
SEAT 7: Conservative (17,169 votes)

But in our theoretical 2021 example the SNP have taken all the constituency seats, so the Tory vote doesn’t get halved at the start, they get an extra seat at the top of the rankings and the “cheapest” list seat is the Lib Dems’ one at 18,444 votes.

So to beat that and take ONE seat, the SNP list vote would have had to be (18,445 x 11 = ) 202,895. That’s almost 50% more than their actual vote was, and a colossal 66% of the total votes cast on the NE list (307,006).

But one seat per region isn’t enough for the SNP, remember – they need two per region to get their supermajority, so they also need to beat the Seat 5 total above. The required number of votes is now 213,367 – a ludicrous 69.5% of the list vote, or a 56% increase on the SNP’s 2016 total.

We’re going to let you in on a secret here, readers – Angus Robertson does not really believe the SNP can get 70% of the list vote in North East Scotland. The last time he himself stood in the region, in the 2017 UK election, he got less than 39%.

What about somewhere the SNP already have all the constituencies AND have a huge list vote?  Step up, Central Scotland.

Nice simple 2016 arithmetic here:

SEAT 1: Labour (67,103)
SEAT 2: Conservative (43,602)
SEAT 3: Labour (33,552)
SEAT 4: Labour (22,368)
SEAT 5: Conservative (21,801)
SEAT 6: Labour (16,776)
SEAT 7: Conservative (14,534)

To get two seats there the SNP would need 167,700 votes – a relatively modest, but still colossally improbable, 30% increase on their 2016 vote, up to a 62% total share.

Just for fun let’s also check the other end of the scale – South Scotland, where the SNP actually got three list MSPs in 2016.

How well would they have to do to hold onto two of them if they’d somehow swept the board in the constituency elections? Here’s how the seats were allocated last time:

SEAT 1: Labour (28,036)
SEAT 2: SNP (24,043)
SEAT 3: Conservative (20,151)
SEAT 4: SNP (20,036)
SEAT 5: Labour (18,691)
SEAT 6: SNP (17,174)
SEAT 7: Conservative (16,792)

But in our fantasy 2021 result the SNP are taking all nine constituencies, so their vote of 120,217 gets divided by 10 to 12,021 and the allocation would change to this:

SEAT 1: Conservative (100,753)
SEAT 2: Labour (56,072)
SEAT 3: Conservative (50,377)
SEAT 4: Conservative (33,584)
SEAT 5: Labour (28,036)
SEAT 6: Conservative (25,188)
SEAT 7: Conservative (20,151)

That means to get the two list seats they’d need, the SNP list vote would have to rise to a dizzying 251,890 – well over TWICE what they got in 2016 and an absurd 80.1% of the total list vote of 314,192.

So if you glazed over at all the numbers and just skipped to the end for the conclusion, it’s this: Angus Robertson is trying to tell you today that it’s a credible and achievable goal for the SNP to get over 80% of the list vote in South Scotland.

And folks, we hope it’s not too big a spoiler to say that that just ain’t gonna happen.

If you’re still not sure that “both votes SNP can get a supermajority” is an insult to your intelligence after that, then you’re truly beyond the reach of reason.

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    569 to “Panic attacks”

    1. Luigi says:

      If Nicola Sturgeon is indeed hiding something shady that happened at the Balmoral, then she’s got quite the brass neck for continuing to smear Alex about having “questions” to answer. Careful where you cast stones! I have no idea what it is about, but something serious seems to have occurred. There seems to be a big cover-up effort underway.

      If the British establishment have something on her, then she is completely compromised. Talk about “super” leverage – you can kiss independence goodbye folks. It would explain how the MSM seem to be giving her any easy time of late. Why trash her if she is already in their pocket?

      Even if a politician is for indy, many are sociopaths and don’t really give a crap either way. Number one priority is looking after Number One. I’m not saying NS is definitely a sociopath, but she well could be. If it means indy delayed by ten years, the country trashed, bled dry, so be it, as long as Number One is protected.

    2. Red says:

      John says: Scotland deserves much, much better than [the EU]

      Amen.

      I was there, Gandalf. I was there when the SNP went all in on the Independence in Europe strategy in the early 90’s. In those days most Scottish people thought you were a crank if you mentioned independence. The world was a very different place – Ireland was booming, Scotland was barely treading water after the economic meltdown of the 80’s and Black Wednesday, the newly minted European Union still had a very light touch. The Euro was still a bright shiny thing that belonged to the future and was supposed to usher in a wonderful period of prosperity. People thought Mr Blobby was funny.

      Independence in Europe was about threading the needle between wanting to leave the UK, while still reassuring normies we wouldn’t turn Scotland into some kind of hermit kingdom where people have to boil tree bark for their tea.

      Made sense at the time.

      The EU isn’t what it was, it’s a lot bigger and more powerful at the expense of smaller members. The Euro hasn’t benefited ordinary people, it’s been a jobs-killing nightmare for the peripheral countries. Democracy is basically DOA when it conflicts with the bankers, as Syriza found out.

      Ireland no longer seems like something we’d want to aspire to. It’s afflicted with familiar problems – a corrupt political class gone woke and feral that’s mainly concerned with servicing multinational capital, property developers, and business’ insatiable greed for cheap migrant labour. The Irish used to sing about being “A Nation Again”. They don’t anymore. Too embarrassed.

      A large minority of Independence voters, something like 1 in 3, voted to leave the EU. Probably not because they were hypnotised by slogans on buses, or flegs, or the dubious charms of Michael Gove, or the Toad of Toad Hall wheezes of Nigel Farage. But because they see the EU for what it is.

      Scotland free, or a desert! As someone once said. We’re not too wee, too poor, or too stupid to survive without being absorbed into globalist schemes run by people who don’t even live here.

    3. James says:

      akenaton;

      Yes, but it’s not just up to you is it?

      I thought that we already had a vote on remaining in the EU?
      Didn’t we vote to stay in it?

    4. Don says:

      Thomas 28 March, 2021 at 11:49 am

      “Sorry i dont agree with your earlier post. The father of child poverty , and poverty in general is the british labour party”

      Is that why we are currently being kept in the dark like mushrooms being fed compost by the SNP after 14 years by them not allowing us to see their hidden Scottish Child Poverty report and make up our own minds for ourselves ?
      https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/major-report-child-poverty-delayed-indefinitely-2878218

    5. Garavelli Princip says:

      Luigi says:
      28 March, 2021 at 11:53 am
      “If Nicola Sturgeon is indeed hiding something shady that happened at the Balmoral, then she’s got quite the brass neck for continuing to smear Alex about having “questions” to answer. Careful where you cast stones! I have no idea what it is about, but something serious seems to have occurred. There seems to be a big cover-up effort underway.”

      I used to work with someone who was once very, very close to her. They were very discrete, but did once tell me: “She is not all that she seems”.

      That was about ten years ago. Well, recent events bear that out in spades!

    6. James says:

      Oh and for those weaseling about selective referenda; the EU doesn’t control and manipulate the Scottish media.

    7. ahundredthidiot says:

      If I was an SNP MP I would spend ten minutes on a Sunday pondering if I have ever upset NS.

      And if the answer is in the positive, make a decision to join ALBA. She owns a home that doesn’t want you.

      ALBA MPs would raise the profile and seriousness of Scotlands Independence outwith our own borders, so that when the time comes in May (and ALBA take between 12 & 18 MSP seats) our neighbours will say ‘well, it’s not like we didn’t see that coming’ and pave the way for the next stage in our step towards Scotlands Independence.

    8. Dan says:

      Yet another of Don’s linked archived…

      https://archive.is/pB4mI

      @ ScottieDog at 11:51 am

      As you know, energy is a power reserved to Westminster. Imagine what could be accomplished in “Green” terms if Scotland had total control of energy policy.

      https://extranet.nationalgrid.com/RealTime

    9. ScottieDog says:

      Keith brown..
      Our optimistic, positive campaign will be the exact opposite of the anti-politics that tarnished the last few weeks of parliament.”

      Here’s hoping

    10. Don says:

      @PacMan 28 March, 2021 at 11:19 am

      “I downloaded a VPN which allows you, in the case of news items, to get geographical restrictions. I couldn’t find anything about this where I searched on google.com (if you type this in normally it reverts to google.co.uk with UK specific restrictions) It does seem strange.”

      Try Googling Peter Murrell ? He is the invisible man on the Internet , if they have the power to do that they can do almost anything they choose to keep you uniformed. If they are hiding more then we must be a nation manipulated by people who said Scotland could be “better” ? A fog is gathering in front of my eyes , its hard to beleive what the truth is anymore because it seems its only the truth they want you to see and no more.

    11. Heather says:

      I don’t know if anyone listened to yesterday’s interview with Alan Smyth.

      https://drive.google.com/file/d/1PLZ1zpNYPUwHG4d9D8ezPBRYzFWBKgAx/view

      Something he said made me sit up and take notice, which I thought was rather interesting. He said that the D’Hondt system wasn’t designed to stop nationalist majorities, it was designed to ensure that voters are represented across the board. He was insistent that the Alba Party, a ‘pop-up party’ should not be trying to ‘game the system’ against that representation. It was rather odd from someone who wants, and whose party wants, independence. Suddenly, we’re to believe he cares about representation of other parties. Wings has been saying for a long time that they don’t want a majority. This, to me, was tacit confirmation of it. I don’t think he quite realised the contradiction between this line and the constant pushing of ‘both votes SNP’ as the only way to ‘maximise a pro-Indy’ mandate. If they ‘maximise the pro-Indy majority’ then they’re pushing out representation of other parties. Therefore, they’re gaming the system, according to his logic. Yet, we know it does the opposite and it’ll lose them seats and give the other parties representation. He knows it, the SNP knows it and we know it. Yet here he’s tacitly saying the complete opposite of both votes because AS is standing a party. Likely he thinks the rest of us too stupid to notice it but I found it quite illuminating.

    12. Alf Baird says:

      Daisy Walker @ 2:07 pm

      “I read somewhere that the employment ratio of Scots in our Universities is around the 10% level. I can’t recall where I saw that and so cannot confirm. If that is anywhere near true, it is deeply, deeply racist. I will leave you to ascertain what the ratio of English staff in Scottish Unis is. A wee clue, it is very, very high.”

      This data is based on my analysis of all departmental academic staff at three of Scotland’s ‘elite’ universities, Edinburgh, St. Andrews and Aberdeen. Actually in a few of these departments there are no Scottish academics, all academic staff being recruited from outside Scotland. The future prognosis is perhaps even more bleak (if that were possible) given that academics are largely drawn from PhD students and there are (and have been for a long time) very few Scottish people undertaking doctoral research, i.e. perhaps again less than 10 per cent of all PhD students in Scottish universities will be Scots.

      This reflects why many of the academics from Scotland’s universities wheeled into TV and radio studios or parliamentary committees to give Scots their advice, are not Scottish, and hence will tend to know relatively little about Scotland, its history and heritage, or our people, culture, languages etc. Prevailing and longstanding institutionalised practice therefore appears to exclude much emphasis on nurturing and developing Scottish people within our own academic institutions, which to a significant extent reflects a colonial picture and is, as you say, racist.

      This data and related analysis was published in my recent book: ‘Doun-Hauden: The Socio-Political Determinants of Scottish Independence’.

    13. mollymo says:

      NS revealing her true colours every day.
      if she is interested in Independence she will behave like a leader not the pathetic spiteful egotistical individual she has become. She needs to get a grip.

      Never once has AS mouthed off about her, he sees exactly what is going on as do thousands of others who have already chosen to join his Party.

    14. Andy Ellis says:

      The fact that yoons,Scottish Greens and the Sturgeonista Loyal are having meltdowns about the emergence of the Alba Party – if for different reasons – tells us everything we need to know. A dozen or so yoons and Greens have seen the prospect of their cosy sinecures for the next Holyrood parliament disappear in a matter of 24 hours.

      SNP loyalists will be faced with representatives in Holyrood and Westminster who actually believe independence should happen sometime in the next decade, not when Boris graciously grants them permission. A mirror will be held up not only to the SNPs flaccid gradualism on the question of independence however, but to their failure to perform better in relation to many other issues:

      – the response to the pandemic and the number of Covid deaths;
      – their failures relative to other small countries in dealing with the impact of Covid, even in areas where they could have taken action without Westminster’s say so;
      – failures in education and alleviating child poverty;
      – their approach to open government and good governance in their own party;
      – the GRA, self-ID, HCB;
      – disappearing “ring fenced” #indyref2 money;
      – their abject failure to address the abuse and monstering faced by people like Joanna Cherry and Joan McAlpine.

      In truth, Alba as a party doesn’t actually have to do that much to make a significant impact. Where it would really get interesting over the next few weeks is if more MPs leave the SNP and join – particularly Joanna Cherry – and whether some MSPs and other office holders and activists follow suit. Doubtless all will be loudly proclaimed: it will be interesting to hear from branches just how many SNP folk are leaving, and given recent experience there are still enough disgruntled members inside the SNP to ensure that information comes out.

    15. Ron Maclean says:

      ‘Significant questions’ for Nicola Sturgeon:

      Who set up Alex Salmond?
      Why is the Permanent Secretary still in position?
      Why is the Lord Advocate still in position?
      Who leaked to the Daily Record?
      Where is the missing £500,000?
      What happened at the Balmoral Hotel?

      And so on.

    16. Graf Midgehunter says:

      Shug says: 10:33 am

      “Anyone know what overseas papers reported the Balmoral case”
      —————
      An local incident of arrogance by the FM, has about as much interest for the foreign press as a sack of rice falling over in China.

      It may important for us in the run up to a HE, but abroad..!?

      BTW, I joined ALBA on the first day; it’s the first day since the 31 Jan 2020 that I hav’nt been blazing mad at the utter incompetence of the SNP. 🙂

    17. `There`s no such thing as bad publicity`,

      the Alba party getting millions of £s worth of free advertising,

      thank you rancid media,

      absolutely brilliant.

    18. Mia says:

      “‘Significant questions’ for Nicola Sturgeon”

      There is another few:

      What gave you the right to undermine our democratic rights by letting our perfectly valid democratic mandates to expire against our will and interests?

      what gave you the right to hand our powers and the control of our assets to England MPs against our will and interests?

      what gave you the right to undermine our popular sovereignty and claim of right against our will and interests?

      What have you done with our majorities?

      What gave you the right to use our anti brexit and pro independence democratic votes to preserve the union, to collude with Westminster to foist brexit on us and to deny us our right to self determination against our will and interests?

      what have you done with our ring fenced money?

      What gave you the right to undermine women’s rights and our freedom of speech?

    19. Mark Boyle says:

      This “Balmoral incident” is a distraction and voters simply won’t care whatever it is.

      Focus on the issues people WILL care about at this election – and the real Achille’s Heel for the SNP and the other parties in this one is the “reform” of the Gender Recognition Act, which ALL the current Holyrood cabel have promised to pass.

      In particular, people must not fall into the trap of falling for the old “when did you stop beating your wife” gambit of the tabloid – the only correct response is NOT to answer the leading question, but to turn it back on them – it’s thanks to the SNP’s

      Every time the Nats try flinging the “sex pest” mud at Alex, instead of knee-jerk responsing with “he was acquitted”, point out their pending lunatic law tweek will make it open season for every sex pest and predator in the UK, never mind Scotland.

      They will be able to go into women’s safe spaces (toilets, changing rooms, even be transferred to women’s prisons even if already convicted for any sexual assaults against women) and NO ONE can stop them until it’s too late, lest they find themselves prosecuted for “transphobia” if they openly object – or for that matter if they even so much as phone the police to say they’ve saw a sinister looking male enter a women’s toilets some time ago and has not come back out

      (The police come along, ask the man to explain himself, he sniggers “how dare you, I’m trans”, and in order not to fall foul of a police complaint the hapless cops charge the person who reported it with “transphobic malicious reporting and wasting police time” – that’s how lunatic things will get).

      There’s also such matters as the Derek Mackay and Patrick Grady affairs, plus Mhari Black’s appalling lack of judgement with the “Flowjob” in a primary one class affair.

      If the SNP/Lab/Tory/LibDem/Greens want to use sleeze as a weapon this election, make them quickly regret it big style!

    20. Meg merrilees says:

      Andy Ellis@12.27

      I agree – these upcoming by-elections will cost the SNP quite a pretty penny, which they haven’t got, and there is no guarantee that they will hold the seats.

      It will be hypocritical of the Tories to cast any aspersions about AS’ “inappropriateness to hold office” given the details that are coming about about the PM’s ‘inappropiateness to hold office” which does not seem to exercise the honourable members of the WM Parliament to anything like the degree it is upsetting NS and co.
      Perhaps the lady ‘doth protest too much’ – all this false indignation is becoming very transparent.

      As for Blackford’s remark that ‘ it’s a relief’ to lose Mr. McKaskill – I think those words might come back to bite him, plus they would be quite suitable if used about Mr. Blackford himself, were he to depart.

      It’s high time they all moved on, stop this petty behaviour and accept that they have a fight on their hands and may the best party win.

    21. Famous15 says:

      The Alba Party sorted the data breach quickly.

      However,breaking the Data Protection Act, the Herald used its hacking to publish names.

      That is seious.

    22. Fiona says:

      Great article. Hope folks can spread far and wide. It would be good to send to journos who clearly have zero understanding of it thus completely ignore it when it ought to be part of PSB mandate! Anyhoo Alba party news very welcome. I will not vote for my SNP candidate because it is Nicola Sturgeon. Her moral or leadership compass is way off course, imo. Interesting and since 2014 hopeful time for Scots n Scotland

    23. Republicofscotland says:

      This might already be posted but Neale Hanvey has joined the ALBA party.

    24. Zander Tait says:

      Here’s what I posted today on that story on the Heral:

      “Zander Tait

      User ID: 1929881

      “Herald on Sunday hacks into Alba Party Website using a coding vulnerability then leaks the names and IDs of members via its own media outlets and also publishes the vulnerability.

      Just for the sake of accuracy.

      Oh, I see that the Herald has now changed the headline of this story from:

      “Salmond’s Alba party leaks data of thousands who signed up to events.”

      to

      “Alba technical fault reveals thousands of names who signed up for party events.”

      Perhaps it won’t be the Alba Party who have to find “up to £17m” after all.”

      Newsquest on the other hand….

      Posted 10:20am 28/03/2021

    25. Thomas says:

      @ don

      Or should that be labour don?

      What about wales then don , where the labour party as stu campbell incessantly points out have been in power since the inception of devolution in 1999????

      Wales has worst child poverty in UK

      Around 200,000 children are living in poverty in Wales, or one in three of the total, according to a new report from the Save the Children charity. In addition, as many as 90,000 live in severe poverty. On both counts, Wales has the highest rate of child poverty of any nation in the UK.

      https://www.poverty.ac.uk/report-wales-child-poverty/wales-has-worst-child-poverty-uk

      Good old british labour party , keeping the plebs stuck in child poverty while offering promises of jam tomorrow .

    26. Thomas says:

      Child poverty: Wales is the only UK nation to see increase

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48259327

      Labour government spokesperson in wales blames tories and says tory bad.

      LMFAO.

      Labour don in scotland says snp bad tory bad alba bad vote labour.

      Tell you whit don , i would crawl a thousand miles to piss on the back of the labour party muppets.

      Snp 1 alba 2

    27. Ian Mac says:

      Just imagine the plan back in 2018: get rid of Alex Salmond, sideline Joanna Cherry, hollow out the party democracy, and vanish any dissidents asking awkward questions. Then, once they are neatly despatched by 2020, thanks to Boris, the Tories and Brexit, s clear and unassailable lead is established, and we coast to victory as the only party for indy (memo: will have to revive talk of indy just before election – no detail necessary). We will be unchallengeable, all enemies disposed of and the media in our pocket. Big pay rises and pensions all round.

      Oh, the tangled web we weave…

    28. kapelmeister says:

      Hotels can become forever linked to public figures.

      Oscar Wilde was arrested at the Cadogan Hotel.
      John Lennon had a bed-in for peace at the Amsterdam Hilton.
      RFK was assassinated at the Ambassador Hotel.
      Lord Watson had a pyromania episode at Prestonfield Hotel.

      Balmoral Hotel?

    29. Hatuey says:

      Is the SNP skint?

    30. Mark Boyle says:

      From Glen Campbell at the BBC:

      https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56555096

      “Two days after it launched, the Alba Party now has a bigger presence in the Commons than either Scottish Labour or the Greens.

      Alex Salmond’s breakaway from the SNP includes the former Scottish justice secretary Kenny MacAskill, who has talked about forming a group at Westminster – suggesting further defections to come.

      So far, the new party has attracted those who empathise with Alex Salmond and his desire for a bigger focus on securing Scottish independence.

      With Neale Hanvey and former SNP councillor Lynne Anderson joining today, Alba also appears to be a home for those who fear that gender self-identification for trans people poses a threat to women’s rights.”

    31. Lost says:

      Now had time to digest the last week. What a week!

      Very interested in Alba and the reactions of the press and other parties.

      The temper tantrum of Nicola Sturgeon in her statement has confirmed to me that she’s insular, huffy and bitchy. Not what I want to see in a First Minister.

      The SNP should be welcoming Alba with open arms, as its another party for Independence, instead we get foot stomping. Its clear from the reactions that Independence isn’t the SNP’s goal. A wiser politician would have extended the hand of friendship, this would’ve taken the wind out of Alba’s sails and made the SNP look reasonable. But no, they throw a wobbler.

      The unionists working together shows how frightened they are of Alex Salmond. They know this is the real deal.

      I’m still struggling with the SNP 1 vote. I get why it needs to happen but I’d be putting a man who sat on the Committee and backed Nicola Sturgeon to the hilt back to Holyrood. Checked his voting record, will only vote with the party line, EVEN if it means voting against something he has previously campaigned on.

      Struggling with this.

    32. Caledonia says:

      Wish rev Stuart Campbell would do another article on why voting for Alba would keep Tories out as well as getting more independence MSPs

      Simple as possible because all you get is the narrative it will split the SNP vote

      And when you try to explain the voting system they either get bored or say its too complicated

    33. ahundredthidiot says:

      Caledonia

      Barrheadboy does a good piece on this.

    34. Daisy Walker says:

      @ Alf Baird wow.

      Well done Alf, I knew it was bad, but to see the bald evidence of it – so blatant.

      Its well known from a discrimination point of view – you can’t be, what you can’t see.

      I’m going to suggest that you can’t be what you can’t hear either.

      Prof Ian Robertson from Talking Up Scotland produced some stats comparing the heads of Scottish Unis (15 out of 17 English – from memory, I think) to those of other countries – like France, Denmark, Netherlands, Canada, Ireland etc – and low and behold – they did not employ that level of English to head up their Uni’s – they tended to go for the 15 / 17 Indiginous Academics for the Universities in their country.

      If you were a top class, world class Scottish Scientist, in a Scottish Uni – would you not have a wee look round, figure out the game was rigged, and emmigrate? Damned right you would.

      It makes my blood boil.

    35. Hatuey says:

      Where’s Tommy Sheridan in all this?

      Please fight the Glasgow Cathcart constituency seat, Tommy, don’t make good people vote for James Dornan.

    36. Meg merrilees says:

      Baxter @ 9.20 and many others re the amazing Joanna Cherry.

      I wonder if we should give Joanna a bit of peace and rest from pressure and speculation?

      I, for one, and many here would love to know that she was rallying to the ALBA cause but the woman is ill and needs some space. I wouldn’t be surprised if she is currently questioning whether she wants to stay in politics or get out while she is, literally, still alive.

      She has been subjected to immense stress, rejection, abuse, a ‘corrective’ r+pe threat, fear, humiliation and more than any of us can imagine.

      Speaking from my own experience I had a high profile job, was subjected to bullying and harrassment on a daily basis by male and female colleagues and eventually ended up being stalked. This was so serious that police were involved, my employer was preparing a court case and I was a complete basket case of nerves, unable to work.
      It only ceased because the man involved died unexpectedly, but the stress I had experienced triggered an auto-immune reaction (hepatitis)in my body which ultimately led to a liver transplant – so I believe Joanna when she says she is ill and needs some rest.

      Sometimes it can be really tough to stand up for your beliefs and she has certainly spent the past couple of years being an absolute heroine, fighting Boris, Brexit, Prorogation of Parliament, being so badly treated by NS, the SNP and the GRA supporters. You shouldn’t need to be superhuman to be in politics.

      I wish her a speedy recovery and hope she will soon be able to pick up her life and continue doing something, anything, she loves and ENJOYS without being attacked for it. She has certainly left her mark.

    37. Daisy Walker says:

      @ Lost re, ‘I’m still struggling with the SNP 1 vote. I get why it needs to happen but I’d be putting a man who sat on the Committee and backed Nicola Sturgeon to the hilt back to Holyrood. Checked his voting record, will only vote with the party line, EVEN if it means voting against something he has previously campaigned on.

      Struggling with this.’

      Me too, but a lot can change between now and 6th May.

      I suspect Nicla is going to make the entire SNP party unelectable (deliberately), but the starting pistol on that will not go until after Wednesday. I really hope the ISP and the AFI are prepared for that and can register folk for election on the Constituency vote before Wednesday.

    38. Meg merrilees says:

      Hatuey @ 1.11
      I think Tommy Sheridan is standing as an independent for a Glasgow Constituency seat (ALBA is just a list seat party for the time being) but I didn’t pay much attention to which part of Glasgow as it is all one big place to me.

      You asked – Is the SNP skint? I think financially stretched could be a good phrase.

      Perhaps, mistakenly, I was thinking they would have to pay for the by-elections, but maybe that is a council expense?

      There is a by-election planned for May 13th which may be about to cost £175,000 apparently. Kenny McAskill’s seat, Neale Hanvey’s seat and possible others will soon begin to mount up.

    39. Sue Varley says:

      Well said, Meg re Joanna Cherry. So sorry to hear about what you went through. Hope you are OK now and your liver transplant has not added its own complications to your state of health.

      My bullying boss did not go nearly so far but it caused me a huge loss of confidence, and minor depression until he made me redundant. I was lucky I got 6 months pay in lieu of notice.

    40. Al-Stuart says:

      .
      Just seen the news that Neale Hanvey MP has defected from the SNP to the new Alba Party…

      https://news.sky.com/story/second-mp-defects-from-snp-to-join-alex-salmonds-new-alba-independence-party-12258838

      When the news Bulletin said a second SNP has defected I honestly thought the next two words would be Joanna Cherry.

      It is looking like there are several decent principled politicians that have been sickened by the Sturgeonite McWokeists.

      Yet the Unionist media are still punting Sturgeon’s attacks on Alex Salmond’S suitability to hold political office.

      The statesman that Alex is means he will not say anything bad about Sturgeon.

      But I am okay to get down and dirty. Though the old proverb goes about Trolls and horrible people….

      “Try not wrestle with a pig. You just get covered in shit and the pig enjoys it.”

      I am NOT referring to the broom riding harridan at Bute House as a baconite. But she does put me in mind of the other saying…

      “People in glass houses should not throw stones.”

      I don’t have a Twitter account, but do wonder if perhaps it would be a good idea to trend…

      #AskNicola

      I would like to #AskNicola where she has put the missing ringfenced £600,000?

      #AskNicola if she apologises for putting an innocent man through three years of “tainted political bias” that would have seen him kept out of her way by him being imprisoned for life.

      #AskNicola why she has allowed the law to be changed allowing men into women and young girls changing rooms without any police background checks?

      #AskNicola why she has sold out women’s rights?

      #AskNicola why her beardy husband lied on Oath about WhatsApp messages.

      #AskNicola why she left practice as a solicitor so quickly and under a cloud? Given that fact, is SHE suitable to hold political office?

      Anyone else got an #AskNicola question?

    41. Lenny Hartley says:

      Lost it really is quite simple, unless folk vote SNP on the Constituency the plan wont work you just have to hold your nose, im in the same position but for the cause of Independence its necessary.

    42. Fergus Denoon says:

      Of course, all this could mean is that they want independence voters to vote for Alba, because what would make them do that more than insisting it’s a big threat to the union… @extremely obvious…

    43. Stu says:

      @Lost

      I have the same predicament. Stooge MacMillan in my case.

    44. X_Sticks says:

      @Mac at 2:27 pm

      the wayback machine is what you are looking for 🙂

    45. Liz says:

      Meg Merliless, so sorry that happened to you.
      I experienced similar, reading the Psychology of the Bully, which JC retweeted herself, I immediately recognised the situation, I and looks like you, got embroiled in.

      I also developed an auto immune illness, although not as severe as you.
      The only relief was to resign from my job, even though I was angry at having to do so.

      JC has mentioned in the past, her previous colleagues in the legal profession have been appalled at her treatment and said she would be welcomed back with open arms as a very respected member.

      One more reason to despise Blackford and NS

    46. DJ says:

      @Lost
      I feel for you because I feel the same. But I trust Alex, the master tactician. So it’s SNP 1 Alba 2 for me. No more wasted independence votes.

    47. sarah says:

      @ Meg merrilees at 1.20: “..by-elections..”

      Kenny and Neale changing party does not cause a by-election, thank goodness.

    48. Lost says:

      @ahundredthidiot

      Just read it, good piece!

    49. AKA-Kieran says:

      I’m voting SNP 1 Alba 2, anybody disagree with that ?

    50. Breeks says:

      I neither know, nor care what Sturgeon got up to in the Balmoral Hotel or anywhere else for that matter.

      There are enough of Sturgeon’s failings over Independence, the Salmond Smears and Coverup Conspiracy sitting in plain sight to tell you all you need to know about Sturgeon’s lack of statesmanship. And if Sturgeon had a modicum of shame or integrity, she’d have packed her bags in 2016/17.

      I’m telling you folks, Scotland stood on the very brink of Independence in 2016 with the two sovereign entities comprising the UK, Scotland and England, each returning emphatic, irreconcilable and incompatible Brexit mandates. The UK Union was finished, in full blown Constitutional crisis, in it’s death throes, until the “best leader we’ve ever had” Sturgeon first ignored the sovereign integrity of Scotland’s withheld democratic mandate, and second, cravenly overruled that mandate and capitulated to the ascendancy of Westminster Parliamentary “Sovereignty”.

      That abdication of responsibility and her subservience to Westminster constitutes an explicit and literal violation of the Declaration of Arbroath, and for an SNP First Minister to be responsible for it is just beyond the pale. It is a greater obscenity than anything which might be happening at the Balmoral Hotel.

      History should properly be judging that abject failure as a much greater crime against Scotland than all Sturgeons embittered malice against Alex Salmond, damaging predilection with Trans-weirdo nut jobs, not to mention what she gets up to in posh hotel rooms.

      And I think it needs said again that arguments about the EU versus EFTA are totally missing the point. If you were to look upon Scotland’s EU citizenship as an object that was stolen from us, as the victim of that theft, you must contest the theft of what was yours, not zoom off on a tangent having a debate with yourself about whether the object just stolen from you was actually worth much anyway.

      The “theft” was a constitutional wrong to be overturned, thereby plunging the UK into a constitutional crisis which the Union could not survive intact. It was not a happy-go-lucky opportunity to join EFTA on the bounce.

      To squander that grievous and unconstitutional wrong, and instead use Brexit as a platform to promote EFTA membership seems totally lacking in focus frankly. I don’t care about the merits of EFTA. Another time, another place. Meantime, go away. Scotland has just been assaulted constitutionally and robbed of it’s European Citizenship. The theft should have properly broken the back of the Union, but we have Sturgeon’s strategic genius to thank that it didn’t.

      Do you understand how out of context it feels to even be discussing EFTA? It is an argument for some other day that is just a distraction on this day.

      Then again, since Sturgeon fkd us over with Brexit, and squandered that Union busting colonial violation, it’s all academic anyway. Sturgeon blew away the greatest opportunity for Constitutional Independence which any Nation could ever have hoped for. Our Nation should be in it’s fifth year of mourning… yet somehow the “greatest leader we’ve ever had”, still has a job.

    51. Jonathan Marshall says:

      I don’t post often but I read pretty much every article and many comments from many posters. The real enemy is Westminiter they stymie our aspirations. Over on WGD Paul has said ‘it takes two to compromise and someone has to be mature enough to make the first move’ we could all learn from that. we all need to stop attacking people who aspire for an independent Scotland and focus our ire on all the Blue Red an yellow Tories that try to stop us achieving or goal. Yesterday Mr Salmond called for every vote in the Constituance round to be for the SNP… To any doubters out there we must do that to keep an Indy Majority at Holyrood… We actually need to do it in greater numbers than ever before to make sure that when we vote on the List for Alba we do not take away from the Indy majority at Holyrood. It also depends which region your in and I would hope the Indy bloggers spend time number crunching to help guide everyone. Anyway hope you all have a good day weathers great in the North so I’m away outside to enjoy the sun.

    52. Sharny Dubs says:

      For those who struggle with the SNP1 Alba2 and I understand completely just think on this.

      All those unionists who we presently have to suffer because they got in on a list seat would be no more.

      Fare compensation?

      Oh yeah!!

    53. Shinty says:

      Much as I would love to see JC join the Alba party – she is probably best person to stay in the SNP -someone will need to do the spring clean, eventually, no?

    54. Brian Doonthetoon says:

      Hi Caledonia at 1:06 pm.

      You typed,
      “Wish rev Stuart Campbell would do another article on why voting for Alba would keep Tories out as well as getting more independence MSPs”

      I number-crunched what would have happened in 2016, if 25% or 40% of the SNP’s regional vote had transferred to a single pro-indy party. I only did the regions where the SNP won no list seats.

      An interesting thing came up when I looked at larger percentages, for Mid Scotland & Fife. Right up to 100% of the SNP regional vote transferring to a pro-indy party, the Tories would still have won a regional seat, ie Murdo.

      The first region I looked at was North East Scotland. You can see it here:-

      https://wingsoverscotland.com/quarantine/comment-page-3/#comment-2555501

      If you scroll down from that comment, you’ll find the other regions below.

    55. DJ says:

      @Breeks
      Agree with you 100%! Brexit was the wedge which should have split the Union wide open. Did Nicola see it? Of course she did but she had no intention of exploiting it, except as a means of garnering in the independence vote – “Scotland will not be dragged out of Europe against her will…” etc ad nauseam. Sickened then, sickened now. SNP1 Alba 2

    56. ahundredthidiot says:

      Just had a wee perusal over on WGD.

      For what claims to be a political site, many of their posters are unbelievably politically naive

      The SNP is not going to get a single list seat – not one. All voting SNP with your second vote is going to do is let in one of the unionist parties (the greens are NOT an indy party).

      People who say vote SNP 1 & 2 may as well not even vote in the List – there is no point.

      But if you want to see a dozen (serious) Indy MSPs holding the SNPs feet to the fire, the most obvious and clear thing to do is vote ALBA on the List.

      SNP 1 ALBA 2

      It’s not f*cking rocket science (although clearly too much for some of them – not all – over on WGD)

    57. Alf Baird says:

      Daisy Walker @ 1:10 pm

      Yes, it is scandalous. Such blatant exclusion of indigenous people would never be politically acceptable in any other country.

      I applied for the principals job at my Scottish uni, and had to go through an executive recruitment company in London! Like most other Scottish uni’s they ended up appointing another principal who is not Scottish. I gather only 2 of 19 Scottish uni’s have a Scottish principal.

    58. Stoker says:

      Here’s one of Sturgeon’s supporters. And with a timeline full of filthy questionable tweets, some even addressed to the great Queen of The Balmoral Hotel herself (Sturgeon), has raised no questions of “appropriateness”. https://twitter.com/PlushWah/status/1375413200846532610

    59. ahundredthidiot says:

      BDTT

      Good analysis, but, and if I may say, I think you are being a little conservative. My money is on around 50% of SNP list votes moving to ALBA.

      Particularly if a few more big hitters join and they get their media pitch right.

      I have already talked half my family (traditionally SNP x 2 people) into it already and will work on the rest before May.

      We’ve all a job to do getting this message out.

    60. Mia says:

      Here is a thought:

      Mr Salmond, ISP and AFI are going to great lengths and effort to achieve a supermajority, to max the yes, so we can get the legitimacy we need to choose the strategy best suited to pursue independence. In order to do that, they are asking us to vote SNP in the constituency.

      This means that a good number of votes the SNP is going to get in the constituency are not at all an endorsement of their behaviour or an endorsement of their corrupt leader. In fact, in my case, if I can ever bring myself to vote for that rotten to the core party, it will be EXCLUSIVELY to endorse Mr Salmond’s supermajority.

      I think it is important to continuously remind the SNP, their leader and everybody else in the unionist press and broadcasters that the SNP owes those votes from people like me who despise what Sturgeon has done with the SNP and how she has wasted 6 years of Scotland’s time, to Mr Salmond.

      The last thing we want is for Sturgeon’s SNP to claim credit for those votes when they did nothing to earn them.

      I think it is very important the SNP and their leader are made well aware at all times that those votes they are receiving in the constituency are not for free.
      They are borrowed votes and handed to them for a very particular purpose and for that purpose only: a supermajority to enact independence.

      So what can we do to make clear to the SnP, their leader and the unionist machine that those votes are not theirs but only borrowed thanks to Mr Salmond and the others pursuing a supermajority?

      Could a survey sometime towards the end of the campaign or immediately after the election, be an idea?

    61. WeeChid says:

      Jonathan Marshall says:
      28 March, 2021 at 2:00 pm
      ” Over on WGD Paul has said ‘it takes two to compromise and someone has to be mature enough to make the first move’ we could all learn from that.”

      Isn’t that what Alex Salmond has done? – and look at the response. Maybe WGD and his followers should try asking their dear leader to accept the hand of friendship and stop treating it like a hatchet in the head.

    62. Meg merrilees says:

      Liz and Sue Varley

      Thank you for your good wishes.
      Liver transplant was 2011. I recovered enough to go back to work and leave on my terms, when I decided, not take medical retirement post-transplant.
      Funnily enough, it was AS that gave me the strength to leave my job and return to Scotland in time to vote in 2014.
      When restricting the indy vote to only those living in Scotland, he said, in 2012, if any Scot living abroad wants to vote in the Indy ref then they have two years to get themselves back here and settled in time to vote.

      I’m now 10 years post transplant and keeping well, thank God. Experience makes you stronger and I am really happy now.

      I am well out of all that negativity though I know that the current incumbent in my old job is still being bullied by the same people.
      Why are some people so horrible and why is some management so crap!
      Stay safe and Happy.

    63. akenaton says:

      I don’t know if James is still here, but regarding the EU, I did not use “Sturgeon’s Device” flippantly.
      The question of EU membership was inexorably tied to support for the SNP in the referendum by the glorious FM…..as she was once known, times have changed and a super majority will free Scots to vote on all such issues on their merit.
      I am unfortunately too old to give my vote to people I despise, like Sturgeon, Swinney, Murrell and other SNP members who tried political assassination on Mr Salmond, without whom there would have been no chance of Independence.

    64. Old Man Running says:

      Thanks very educational. So if in 2016 all the SNP list votes had gone to another pro-independence party (but not the Greeens), how many more pro-indy MSPs we would have (and also which MSPs would not have got in)?

    65. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “So if in 2016 all the SNP list votes had gone to another pro-independence party (but not the Greeens), how many more pro-indy MSPs we would have (and also which MSPs would not have got in)?”

      That’s not an easy question to answer definitively without a lot of work, but probably around 30.

    66. Brian Doonthetoon says:

      Hi Old Man Running and Rev Stu.

      I posted a comment in Quarantine, looking at the various percentages of transfer from SNP to Pro-Indy, in the Central Region.

      https://wingsoverscotland.com/quarantine/comment-page-3/#comment-2549427

      I typed,
      “Brian Doonthetoon says:
      20 July, 2020 at 8:10 pm

      The latest Pro-Indy party is talking about winning 24 regional seats. Assuming they didn’t stand in the two regions where the SNP have their four regional MSPs, that leaves six regions for 24 seats or 4 per region.
      What percentage shift of SNP to Pro-Indy would be needed to win 4 seats? What would have happened at 100% shift in Central Scotland in 2016?”

      Here are the summaries.

      2016 actual result in the regional vote:-
      Labour 4 MSPs
      Tories 3 MSPs

      100% transfer.
      Pro-Indy – 4
      Labour – 2
      Tories – 1

      What about 90%?
      Pro-Indy – 4
      Labour – 2
      Tories – 1

      80%?
      Pro-Indy – 4
      Labour – 2
      Tories – 1

      70%?
      Pro-Indy – 3
      Labour – 3
      Tories – 1

      So for Central, a Pro-Indy party would have to be hoping for around 80+% to gain 4 seats. I guess it would be similar for all 6 regions where the SNP gained NO list MSPs.

      At these kinds of percentages, whoever was #1 on the Tory and Labour lists would still get in.

    67. Kcor says:

      Kcor says,

      “what convincing do you need to support a tactical vote for Sarwar to make Sturgeon lose?”

      Mia says,

      “There is no convincing you could ever try to get me to vote for a mediocre, opportunistic, overtly anti independence political puppet to get rid of a dishonest, disloyal, corrupt, vindictive covertly anti independence one. Let me remind you that Sarwar’s branch abstained in Sturgeon’s VONC. In other words, Sarwar and Sturgeon are in the same team.”

      Kcor says,

      “Or would you like Sturgeon to remain an MSP and therefore SNP leader?”

      Mia says,

      “Nope. I want her ejected from Holyrood.”

      Can you not get it into your thick head that Sarwar is going to get in no matter what?

      There is no way you can keep both Sarwar and Sturgeon out but there is an easy way to keep Sturgeon out.

      As for the VONC, it would have made zero difference and we know what Labour are anyway.

      Quoting to you for the fourth time:

      Rev. Stuart Campbell says (Scheming on a mirage),

      “It’s much the same as the Glasgow Southside situation. You’re not choosing between Anas Sarwar and Nicola Sturgeon – Sarwar is top of the Labour list so he’s getting in no matter what happens. What you’re effectively doing with your constituency vote in Glasgow Southside is choosing between two SNP MSPs – Sturgeon or Roza Salih. If you’d prefer Salih, vote Sarwar on the constituency paper.)”

      Either you are really really thick, or like SNP 1/2 Ruby you do want Sturgeon to remain an MSP.

    68. Old Man Running says:

      Thanks Rev Stu and Brian Doonthetoon. I think figures like this would help convince those less engaged with politics an easy way to understand the value of a high profile list only party.

    69. David A. says:

      I know people have put a lot of stock in the calculations and tactical vote but that is not all this is about or the good that alternative parties like this can do.

      The reality is that lots of people who are aware of how bad the SNP have become wouldn’t vote for them or would even spoil their ballot rather than vote for people they think are corrupt and permanent failures to the cause. The new party offers hope and something else to vote for without feeling stained by supporting or feeling like an accomplice to wrongdoing.

      That alone means votes for pro indy that probably wouldn’t have existed before. I think the lesson here is that going forward it should be coalitions instead of putting all eggs in one basket and stamping out any voices that dare to not preach from the same sheet. There are many voices and reasons for independance and one thing that unites every single one of them.



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