First Minister’s Questions today (featuring stand-in FM John Swinney in a theatrical mood) was one long howl of “TOO WEE AND TOO POOR!”, with both Ruth Davidson and Kezia Dugdale using all of their questions to hark back to oil revenue forecasts from 2013 and insist that an independent Scotland would face economic apocalypse.
It was a dispiriting spectacle, and we found ourselves experiencing (not for the first time) pangs of sympathy for the remaining tiny rump of Scottish Labour voters, who must surely watch in broken despair at the antics of the hapless pack of squawking diddies representing their views in the Parliament.
The one great pillar of the argument against Scottish independence – greater than not being allowed into the EU, greater than being forced to barter with beads and potatoes because we wouldn’t have a currency, greater than losing Doctor Who or having the Chinese take their pandas back – is the economy.
Scotland is far too wee and too poor to be independent, they say – while indignantly denying that they’re saying it – because we only survive now thanks to a vast bailout every year from the rest of the UK, by which they in fact mean England. (Because it’s sure as heck not coming from Wales or Northern Ireland, which by any measure you care to choose are far poorer than Scotland.)
The name and size of this bailout vary wildly. Sometimes it’s a “deficit”, sometimes it’s a “black hole”, sometimes it’s a “fiscal transfer”, and it can be £8bn, £9bn, £10bn, £15bn, £28bn, £32bn or any other figure up to a hundred and eleventy thousand million bajillion squillion depending on who you’re talking to.
(The last one’s probably either David Coburn or Jackie Baillie.)
And while there are a dozen separate and compelling reasons why that argument is complete rubbish, none of them have any traction with diehard Unionists determined to believe that one of the richest and most blessed nations on Earth couldn’t possibly manage its own affairs like, say, Latvia or Ireland or Kuwait or Slovakia can.
But it turns out there IS a – surprisingly simple – way to get Unionists to categorically deny that England subsidises Scotland. You just have to ask them.
Fear and lies work. Over many decades (and really for centuries) the Unionist parties and the media have succeeded in persuading a large percentage of Scots that they’re beggars, scroungers, vagrants and “subsidy junkies” dependent on the ever-generous charity of England to keep them from starvation.
And in terms of the facts, that hasn’t always been an easy sell.
We originally wrote this article in March, in response to the Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (better known as GERS) figures for 2014-15. We’ve updated it to take account of events since that time, of which there’s been one rather major one.
Today saw the publication (just five months after the 2014-15 GERS) of the 2015-16 stats, which are again triggering a convulsive orgy of “BLACK HOLE!” articles across the media, as every Unionist in the land falls over themselves to portray their own country as a useless scrounging subsidy junkie without actually using the exact words “too wee, too poor, too stupid”.
And once again, everywhere you look there’s a “Proud Scot” screaming about how the figures – showing an essentially unchanged “deficit” despite an almost £2bn fall in oil revenue – destroy a case for independence that those same people have spent most of the last four years stridently insisting never existed in the first place.
Today’s Sunday Times didn’t bother with any subtlety in its signalling of how people should expect the Scottish media to handle next week’s GERS figures.
There’ll be nothing but repeats of all last year’s articles in the papers, so there doesn’t seem to be much point in re-writing all the rebuttals. We’d advise readers not to expect to hear any of the facts or arguments in any of the above articles aired on TV or radio discussions of the new figures either. For the sake of your blood pressure, it’s probably best to stick to old QI repeats on Dave for the next eight days.
Some of you will have missed this over the weekend:
Yes – Michelle Mone, of all the people on Earth, really did just go on TV and accuse Nicola Sturgeon of being all about ego. We’ll leave you to absorb that for a bit.
[EDIT 24 August 2016: This article has now been updated here.]
It’s Sunday, so there is of course one last convulsive orgy of “BLACK HOLE!” articles in all the papers, as every Unionist hack and pundit in the land falls over themselves to portray their own country as a useless scrounging subsidy junkie without actually using the exact words “too wee, too poor, too stupid”.
Everywhere you look there’s a “Proud Scot” screaming about how Scottish revenue this year being 1% lower than it was last year has comprehensively demolished a case for independence that those same people have spent most of the last four years stridently insisting never existed in the first place.
So before everyone moves on to a new “SCOTLAND BAD” next week, we thought it was worth a short recap of what we’ve learned about a devolved Scotland’s financial books this week.
Economics: The art of explaining why all of your models fail to accurately predict either the future or the past.
It’s the time of year again when everyone glances at the first page of a dense booklet of complex economic data and immediately starts using it to make wild forecasts and proclamations despite the long-known problems with doing so.
So it’s also, once again, time to try looking a little further to tease out some details that others might have – let’s be generous here – accidentally missed.
This year’s GERS figures will be published today, purporting to illustrate the financial relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK. With oil revenues down, they’ll undoubtedly provoke an orgasmic explosion of glee among Unionists crowing about “black holes” and how Scotland is too wee, too poor and too stupid to survive alone.
We’ve already run an extremely detailed explanation of all the flaws and booby-traps in GERS, but of course we’re a pro-independence website and we would say that. So instead we’ll direct you to someone who’s very much NOT on our side.
Below is a 17-minute section of this afternoon’s John Beattie show on BBC Radio Scotland, featuring me and an amateur blogger with a keen interest in Pedigree Chum discussing the effect of the lower oil price on the Scottish economy.
So that’s genuine progress – next time some frothing Yoon screams “OIL PRICE! BLACK HOLE! SNP LIES! TOO WEE, TOO POOR!” at you, you can direct them here for categorical agreement from the Yes and No sides alike that actually the falling oil price makes an independent Scotland MORE economically viable, not less.
Unfortunately you’ll have to put up with a condescending, patronising arse sniggering randomly throughout, but it’s a relatively small price to pay.
Andrew scott on According As We Need Them: “O/t Nurse Peggie cleared by nhs fife Now the sparks will fly -hopefully upton, gray and the board are SACKED” Jul 16, 10:39
Oneliner on According As We Need Them: “Yep 16,000 is a good number considering MI5 isn’t a political party” Jul 16, 10:38
James Cheyne on According As We Need Them: “I think most of Scots in more recent times recognise that the EU is one of the biggest perponents of…” Jul 16, 10:06
Northcode on According As We Need Them: “I’m reconsidering my use of the term ‘unionist’ to describe… well, to describe unionists. I’m reconsidering my use of the…” Jul 16, 10:00
James Cheyne on According As We Need Them: “Food for thought, Scotland is registered as a Country in the UN surprisingly just like England, by England although treated…” Jul 16, 09:56
sam on According As We Need Them: “It is certainly possible for people to take an entirely different view from that of Aiden regarding the ICCPR and…” Jul 16, 09:42
sam on According As We Need Them: “There is nothing at all in the links you gave to refute or undermine the research done by Professors Walsh…” Jul 16, 09:04
Aidan on According As We Need Them: “Not to defend Angus Robertson, but the 20,000 people signing the Liberation petition doesn’t compare all that favourable to the…” Jul 16, 08:50
Sven on According As We Need Them: “Aidan @ 06.54 “People were dying in anticipation of cuts.” Gosh, how that one made me giggle this morning, thankyou,…” Jul 16, 08:40
Oneliner on According As We Need Them: “Angus Robertson, while an MP, sat on the House Of Commons Defence Committee. Quite a position for one from a…” Jul 16, 08:05
Aidan on According As We Need Them: “Sure – see Leah Gunn Barrett’s substack: https://dearscotland.substack.com/p/the-scottish-government-surrenders Secondly, Article 25 is the part you want to look at. https://www.ohchr.org/en/instruments-mechanisms/instruments/international-covenant-civil-and-political-rights” Jul 16, 08:03
Aidan on According As We Need Them: “https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanepe/article/PIIS2666-7762(22)00130-2/fulltext https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/mortality-rates-among-men-and-women-impact-of-austerity/ This is where is comes from” Jul 16, 08:00
sam on According As We Need Them: “Any evidence for this assertion of yours regarding a backdoor route to circumvent the Supreme Court judgement? Would you also…” Jul 16, 07:50
Northcode on According As We Need Them: “Thank you, Sarah. TH said this about your contributions to this place: “Your information is enlightening and relevant…” I agree.” Jul 16, 07:41
sam on According As We Need Them: “I have no idea what you are talking about. Do you have a reference or link to the “paper” in…” Jul 16, 07:30
Alf Baird on According As We Need Them: ““I don’t know how Angus Robertson can reasonably claime ICCPR is not needed in Scotland.” Aye Sam, Angus Robertson an…” Jul 16, 07:10
Aidan on According As We Need Them: “We’ve been around the houses with this one before. Despite being published in the Lancet, it’s a pretty dubious paper.…” Jul 16, 06:58
Aidan on According As We Need Them: “Re the last paragraph, Ewan Kennedy is flat out wrong. The petitioner does believe that implementing the ICPPR provides a…” Jul 16, 06:44
sam on According As We Need Them: “One of the Rights under the ICCPR is the right to life which is a protection against arbitrary deprivation of…” Jul 16, 06:33
twathater on According As We Need Them: “TBQH Sarah I would disregard ANYTHING that Bastard Tax MOAN and his wee Scotland Hating sidekicks like Aydun Corporal Batshit…” Jul 16, 01:58
sarah on According As We Need Them: “@ Northcode: “mirkie watter”. I like it, Northcode. Your knowledge of poetic forms puts me to shame.” Jul 15, 22:58
sam on According As We Need Them: “https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52524-europeans-would-welcome-an-independent-scotland-into-the-eu “That Scotland may vote in a second independence referendum to leave the UK cannot be discounted, and Scottish nationalists…” Jul 15, 21:43
sam on According As We Need Them: “The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) is a United Nations treaty that the UK has ratified (meaning…” Jul 15, 21:38
Northcode on According As We Need Them: “Thanks, James. Here’s another: mirkie watter Rever stanes smuithed roond; shaped by watter no thair ain; drouned in silence, worn…” Jul 15, 19:17
Hatey McHateface on According As We Need Them: “Thanks for the info, Aidan. On the face of it then, it sounds like just another ruse by which the…” Jul 15, 19:11
Hatey McHateface on According As We Need Them: “Fair enough, sarah, I stand corrected. How about a link so we can all see what it’s about?” Jul 15, 18:58
Captain Caveman on According As We Need Them: “@TwatByName You know what they say, “there’s no fool like an old fool”. Silly old sod. Take up bowls or…” Jul 15, 18:56
Hatey McHateface on According As We Need Them: “Sure, TH. I have little doubt that the humous boys will be hunted down to the ends of the earth…” Jul 15, 18:54
Aidan on According As We Need Them: “I’ll save you the trouble, it’s another cunning plan which says that if the Scottish Government implemented the ICCPR, because…” Jul 15, 18:34
sarah on According As We Need Them: ““clearly a good thing because Angus R…oppose it.” This is an example of humour.” Jul 15, 18:32