The reasons for Scottish Labour’s obliteration at the hands of the electorate last week are manifold, and most of them were very thoroughly explored in the weekend’s press, for example by Kevin McKenna here and here.
But as is our wont here on Wings, we wanted something a little more empirical to get our teeth into, so a few days before the election we commissioned a poll of 1,013 Scottish voters from Panelbase covering some of the subjects the regional office had campaigned on under its branch manager Jim Murphy.
Much of the commentariat and media has been in a froth for the last 24 hours about the supposed failure of the nation’s pollsters to predict the Conservative victory. This, for example, was Labour’s highly-paid election guru David Axelrod:
But the truth is that the polls – just like the heavily-maligned exit poll which turned out to be bang on the money – got nothing wrong. The people interpreting them did.
We’ve done another poll in conjunction with our dear chums at Panelbase, readers, which we think will be the last full-size Scottish one before the polls open. You may already have seen their headline voting-intention stats, but if not they’re below.
Those numbers suggest, depending which electoral forecaster you feed them into, over 50 seats for the SNP. The poll delivered some extremely interesting results, but we’re going to tease you and hold most of them over until tomorrow, because it’ll actually be a really slow news day.
(September 18 last year was one of the most miserable days of our lives, and we’re not talking about the result. It just seemed to drag on forever and ever, with nothing happening until past midnight. This way there’ll at least be something to read.)
But as a little taster, here’s a fascinating info-nugget.
Greg Moodie’s Election Dissection, a compilation of splendid cartoon strips from The National, Bella Caledonia and elsewhere, is available to order now.
gm on The End Of Law: “https://www.scotland.police.uk/access-to-information/freedom-of-information/disclosure-log/disclosure-log-2024/march/24-0363-operation-cerrar-child-exploitation-glasgow-2020/ It happened in Glasgow. Operation Cerrar. You can search it. Deeply worrying. What was worse was the response of…” Jun 21, 18:19
Captain Caveman on The End Of Law: ““Do you people own anything?” #spoiler alert Nope. “IT WUZ THE TORRREEES” etc. Hatey has hit the bullseye here.” Jun 21, 18:07
Red on The End Of Law: “There’s a special place in Hell for Rape Gang deniers, sam. Have you no shame?” Jun 21, 17:59
sam on The End Of Law: “Unsubstantiated garbage” Jun 21, 17:32
James on The End Of Law: “Excellent idea, Onlooker; let’s get on with it! Sadly there are bad actors from another country, and their compromised stooges…” Jun 21, 17:08
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “House! I just needed green cheese to complete four corners.” Jun 21, 17:05
James on The End Of Law: “Can you read? Even one eyed?” Jun 21, 17:02
James on The End Of Law: “Unionist Prick.” Jun 21, 16:59
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “Jay I do attach much weight to personal responsibility. Such as the responsibility of the SNP voters in Arbroath. They…” Jun 21, 16:57
Red on The End Of Law: “List of areas where Muslim Rape Gangs have been found operating in Scotland (so far): Aberdeen City Angus Argyll and…” Jun 21, 16:46
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “Loving it, sam. We need to improve benefits and free health care so we can draw even more millions of…” Jun 21, 16:23
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “You’re missing that a male minus dangly bits isn’t a female. Quite a big miss. Maybe excuse yourself from framing…” Jun 21, 16:18
Nemisis Benn on The End Of Law: “Am I missing something? The blurb from Pollock doesn’t quite say that certain criminals are serving their sentences in establishments…” Jun 21, 15:20
Saffron Robe on The End Of Law: “The admissions practice has been deemed unlawful and yet it remains in place. The irony is, of course, that if…” Jun 21, 14:41
Alf Baird on The End Of Law: ““Wasn’t it psychology” Indeed so, for colonization ‘is based on psychology’ (Cesaire). Of course, colonization itself leads to many other…” Jun 21, 14:39
Jay on The End Of Law: “McHateful, interesting to read your riposte to my comment (11:37, 20th June). Your reply comes close to making me think…” Jun 21, 14:36
sam on The End Of Law: “Social Murder? Austerity and Life Expectancy in the UK Get access Arrow David Walsh, Gerry McCartney Published: 28 November 2024…” Jun 21, 14:32
sam on The End Of Law: “From “UK Poverty Guide 2026..”, Joseph Rowntree Foundation. “Every year, we see the same groups disproportionately trapped in poverty, with…” Jun 21, 14:23
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “I’m almost certain that some of the “Scotland’s Mammie” Covid TV addresses were fronted by Murrell, not Sturgeon. Think about…” Jun 21, 13:56
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “I haven’t read it. Don’t imagine I ever will. There’s some quite clever people plausibly arguing that AI is already…” Jun 21, 13:46
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “Fuck Morocco an aw.” Jun 21, 13:36
Jay on The End Of Law: “Nicely made point,McHateful. On another topic, have you read ‘Rise and Kill First’ by Ronen Bergman? To avoid confusion, Ruth…” Jun 21, 13:08
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “Not sure if I should level the “unclean” or the “fantasist” charge at you Tommo. Probably the latter, as it…” Jun 21, 13:03
Captain Caveman on The End Of Law: “Heh! Well, I guess I’ll just have to lick my wounds and enjoy the tennis here at Queens Club, [capital…” Jun 21, 13:00
Onlooker on The End Of Law: “I do wonder how many of the ‘people’ here are either bots or paid King’s shilling-graspers, I admit.” Jun 21, 12:57
Onlooker on The End Of Law: “I see. So anybody critical of English legal sovereignty on an ostensible Scottish independence site is in the SNP. The…” Jun 21, 12:54
Hatey McHateface on The End Of Law: “As always, sam leaves out demographics so that he can lie with his statistics. There’s something like 10 million immigrants…” Jun 21, 12:54
Jay on The End Of Law: “Is that self-parody from Caveman or is he merely a lout who boasts about how much money he has, so…” Jun 21, 12:48
Lorncal on The End Of Law: “I think it was a BBC2 Open doors discussion from 1973, not 1960s, Jay. Very enlightening for people today, but…” Jun 21, 12:12
sam on The End Of Law: “Do you people own anything? In 1961 poverty levels in the UK were 13%. Under Thatcher they rose to 25%.…” Jun 21, 12:02
