What happened next?
Posted on
June 11, 2015 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
24 hours in news:
Oil is good again! Yay!
No, not for YOU, Scotland. Don’t be stupid.
The world's most-read Scottish politics website
How is it alright for the bankrupt UK to operate with a 90 billion black hole, but 7 billion would be a complete disaster for energy-rich Scotland?
“Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.”
George Orwell, 1984
If we today were like we were pre referendum,and had the memory of a goldfish,Scots might fall for it. Not any more. Oil is extra. When you see media u turns like this and then see MPs for English constituencies taking up the questions at Scottish Questions,you begin to realise that your countrys’ future lies not in this union.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) estimated that a total of £2.1bn would be raised in the 20 years to 2040-41.
That is about £34.5bn lower than it estimated last year, and less than the tax revenue from last year alone.
It added: “As we always stress, North Sea revenues have been the most volatile receipts stream and are subject to large forecast errors, even over the short term.
What is the point of the OBR. Last year they forecast that Scotland’s oil revenues for the next 20 years at £36.6bn. Now they say £2.1bn. Then they add, “but its all pie in the sky anyway” (My Paraphrase). My greatgrandson talks more sense and all he says is mama.
Remarkably few headlines will be allowed in Scotland, Westminster and uk/scottish media suffering from cognative dissonance in relation to oil and how it affects Our economy but not theirs
Regardless of the oil price, I’m all for FFA, providing we ensure that we receive ALL TAX INCOME (Corporation, Income, VAT, Fuel Duties, Export duties,Alcohol Duties etc, etc. etc.)
We will then be in a position to actually calculate our true earnings. It will also allow us to do so historically and we can then tell them to stick England’s debt where the sun don’t shine, along with their trident renewal and foreign affairs.
So basically, oil is liquid gold if you believe in the union, but will melt your face if you believe in Scottish Independence.
Seriously, when is then next vote, this hinging aboot is driving me nuts.
Thepnr says:
11 June, 2015 at 5:08 pm
It was supposed to be a work of fiction NOT a prediction!
Perhaps I underestimate Mr. Orwell 🙁
Liars, cheats and thieves.
It was UKOK media wot won it but they’re clearly going to stop FFA too, with stuff like
link to wingsoverscotland.com
or
link to wingsoverscotland.com
I think we have to assume the SNP FFA amendment appeared unexpectedly?
As oft discussed, we won’t get it, but I do think our 56 are doing a great job of raising Scotland’s profile by being proactive.
For FFA/FFR to work, companies that TRADE in Scotland must also be REGISTERED in Scotland. That way, their accounts are also required to be lodged in Scotland and we then see EXACTLY how much we should be getting in revenues from them.
That registration should also cover the territorial waters.
In addition we will need our own treasury and, probably, central bank.
To reduce our costs (i.e. the sums sent to London) we will need to have our own regulatory bodies head-quartered up here too.
It would also be helpful to have Westminster provide us with fully itemised invoices for the defence and “foreign affairs” support that they claim they’d give us. That way, we can challenge a few of the sums demanded.
We in turn will invoice them handsomely for the use of our facilities, such as Faslane, along with all the oversight charges we will need to levy to ensure they are not allowing “things” to happen in the places that we rent to them.
Then there will be the clean up charges for Dalgety Bay, Solway Firth, Dounreay, Coulport (and I’m sure the list could be expanded quite easily).
“Ian Murray, Labour’s shadow Scottish secretary, said the OBR’s new figures “highlight the madness of full fiscal autonomy for Scotland. The SNP is looking to deliver something that they know is economically illiterate and raises questions about their economic credibility.”
Old Severin is a great British laughing stock in Scotland but you have to ask, if Scots is so worthless, why wont our chums in the south let go of it, give Scotland full control of Scots oil industry etc…
Pretty please dear imperial masters and Severin?
Now STV are saying that Westminster is opposing FFA because of, wait for it, low oil prices.
Stephen.
link to bbc.co.uk
BBC vote SLab Scotland follows through big style. All night and all day tomorrow. They must really be UKOK krapping it and its a lot like their NO sterling for you YES sweaties stuff last year.
Last year they said twenty years worth of oil receipts would generate £34.5 billion. One year later they now say £2 billion. The ‘independent’ OBR is obviously completely incompetent at predicting 20 year cycles and can’t even predict oil receipts over one year, if it can suddenly drop its prediction by 94% in just ONE year. The SNP was actually serious about demanding full fiscal autonomy and submitting an amendment to that effect to the Scotland Bill a few hours before the OBR made its announcement. One other amendment I would suggest in this time of austerity is to just abolish the OBR – I doubt anyone would miss it…
Isn’t the biggest opposition supposed to be attacking the tories and not other opposition parties?
[…] What happened next? […]
In the name o’ the wee man. Oil is a bonus, not the fundamental crutch of Scotlands economy. All tax receipts, from the likes of Tesco etal, must be included in FFA.
These shysters are basically saying we couldn’t be independent, never mind run a piss up in a brewery.
They are rerunning the referendum, they won; can’t they get over it.
Uk is utterly dependent on north Sea. Without it it’s an economy dependent on selling debt to its own citizens. It’s called a ponzi scheme.
Am I just a cynic or did the OBR wait until the SNP had tabled their amendment before releasing their figures.
Also it didn’t take Kezia long to tub thump……
Collusion ?????? Cynic?????? Me??????
London Labour are tories and have been for a long time as even the dumbest unbelievers are finding out
It is quite clear that the Tories and their media pals have lost the plot. We all know that oil money is the icing on the cake and not the basis for FFA
On the European issue, if all three Celtic countries vote to stay in and England votes to come out, will they have then effectively declared unilateral independence and we can then have our own independence and join a Celtic Alliance staying in the EU?
I don’t think for a minute we see the full figures for oil. We only see what suits them to report .
Do you really think they scuppered independance to save the Union and they really love us.
And they will not be declaring to Scotland the revenues from the fields that were stolen when they moved the boundary north. That revenue must file a huge chunk of the “black hole”
And check out the IFS 63% indirectly Government funded. I dependant?
@Wulls
I said the same this afternoon, no coincidence at all they have all these forecasts stuck in the back of a Whitehall drawer marked ‘not to be opened until doomsday’
PS:
I’ve heard nothing about the police statistics crisis since this morning on GMS. Funny old world init!
@Luigi
How is it alright for the bankrupt UK to operate with a 90 billion black hole, but 7 billion would be a complete disaster for energy-rich Scotland?
I think you’ll find Scotland’s deficit is £12 billion for the most recently published figures. UK deficit is 5.6% of GDP, Scotland is 8.1 % of GDP hence where the deficit gap figure is conjured up from (source GERS 2013-2014). The deficit gap figure of £7.6 billion is what is *projected* by the IFS for the year 2014-2015 that will be published in March 2016.
@Rob James
Regardless of the oil price, I’m all for FFA, providing we ensure that we receive ALL TAX INCOME (Corporation, Income, VAT, Fuel Duties, Export duties,Alcohol Duties etc, etc. etc.)
What are these Export duties you speak of? Can you explain?
As for the OBR report, I would entirely agree with everyone on here that they’re projections are totally made up based on “the current situation not changing” which is why their projections are so different from last year when, you know, the price of oil was so much higher and everyone (including the SNP) was projecting it would stay at that price and indeed only go up.
Now can we declare UDI & get the fuck out of this Unionist cess-pit?
Well the BBC and STV have both ben acting as Brit Nat propaganda mouthpieces today. Just another day of SNP Bad, SNP Wicked and SNP Evil.
Not satisfied with the Tory OBR lie they drag up a spurious study from the Brit Nat front that is the Aberdeen Chamber of Commerce just to rub in the doom and gloom.
Neither the BBC or and STV can contain their delight when it comes to trashing Scotland in any way. I bet they are hoping that the Republic of Ireland hammers us on Saturday as well just to keep them gloating and spreading the doom and gloom about how we are too wee and too poor and too stupid and too whatever to do anything.
Oh and I am get well tired of those who regularly act as apologists for STV as well. STV Aberdeen is totally poisonous and every bit as bad as the BBC if not worse. No doubt Trump will be wheeled out again tomorrow.
In France near Paris on hols.
All I can see is cranes building stuff and fancy metro trains.
They don’t have much oil
Hmmm
So Scotland can neither go it alone or pay its way inside the UK. Can’t fully govern itself independently or dependently.
This must be unique in the world?
O/T
Nicola Sturgeon at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington-includes good Q & A section
link to youtube.com
@ Colin Rippey, maybe you cant answer the simple query, if Scottish oil is such a worthless burden on teamGB, why dont you give up control of it all to Holyrood?
That’s the minimum £1.5 trillion worth of Scots oil out there Colin.
Still no mention of the vast oil reserves up there in the north Atlantic eh?
Probably not worth nuttin’. Move along now..
The more oor Nicola wows them on the big world stage -the more scared the MSM become
Looks like we’re well into PROJECT FEAR III
Thats’s all they’ve got left
Bella’s appeal is now well over subscribed
– but 61 hours left for link to independencelive.net and £3k to go
Please pass it on
@ Jim Thomson. 5.56
(We in turn will invoice them handsomely for the use of our facilities, such as Faslane.)
Waverers ah dont like waverers. Betty slap his puss wie a wet Haddie.
Or just an excuse to form a new and improved “Snoopers Charter?”
link to archive.is
Misreporting Scotland reporting Deputy Dug’s ludicrous $200 a barrel nonsense as fact – one has to laugh or perhaps cry.
“I think you’ll find Scotland’s deficit is £12 billion for the most recently published figures.”
No it’s not, it’s £96 billion.
Oh no, wait a minute, it’s £140 trillion.
Haud on, it’s £5,000 bazillion gazillion.
While working in Inverness for a UK wide restaurant, to sort my tax I had to speak to the tax office in Newcastle!.
I guess my income tax and NI would be classed as raised in England, not Scotland.
All companys operating in Scotland, should be registered in Scotland.
People complain that Amazon, Starbucks, Google etc are cooking the books to hide the money they make and pay less tax, yet the UK government have being doing it for decades to hide how much Scotland makes for itself!.
C4 news putting the boot in now, its the self proclaimed “feisty 56” apparently. Never heard them say that before though.
So little Scots oil, so much Scots scroungerising and clapping, always with the Westminster clapping outrage.
Listen Westminster, if you are subsidising Scotlnad?
Stop it just as quickly as you can while delivering FFA.
We do not believe a word you say nor do we agree with your trumped up statistics from your friends in the Depts of distortion and scaremongering.
If we have miscalculated anything, then we, the Scots will take it on the chin and fix it without Casino Bankers, Pedophile rings, and politicians for profit.
Your whole history has been based on murdering, raping, and
exploiting captured colonies.
Only Scotland and the Falklands remaining and then you can try
living on your own merits.
Go Frack yourselves!
The Daily Mail are at it again, trying to hijack Charles Kennedy’s funeral and use it to attack the SNP.
As for that fecker Brian Wilson….
link to dailymail.co.uk
Coincidence abounds! Unionist news manipulation, gleefully abetted by the unionist media, gets more and more blatant. Do they really think, after years of unionist scare stories, that the majority of people in Scotland takes any notice of them? Well, yes, it seems unionists do. Yet SNP support continues to rise. Unionists are silly-billies.
The Unionist parties have been using a stick to beat us with by their claim that FFA would leave us with a black hole. and therefore the SNP don’t really want it.The SNP have now brilliantly called their bluff by tabling the amendment and the Tories et al will have to vote against it.Now who is scared of Scotland dealing with its own finances.
It will be laid bare for all of Scotland and England to see that the Unionists are more scared by the prospect than the SNP.
Well played the SNP strategists.
Bbc / Stv wont be changing anytime soon.Its Groundhog day news,ad infinitum.
@Andrew Haddow,
The nearer we get to FFA the bigger the defecit will become.They are scared and are again using State mechanisms to frighten the Scottish public.
Total taxes raised in Scotland £54billion (plus corp tax etc paid through London HQ’s for commercial activites in Scotland. VAT is (under) estimated. Total spending in Scotland £35Billion Block Grant, £16Billion (UK) pensions/benefits, £3Billion Defence.
Total taxes raised in the UK £466Billion
Total taxes raised in the rest of the UK £412Billion Plus £90Billion borrowed and spent.
Scotland could save £10Billion? Cutting Trident/illegal wars, tax evasion, (whisky) banking fraud, a tax on ‘loss leading’ drink. Oil development in the West and building turbines, liners on the Clyde would create jobs and growth.
@Ronnie 7:33pm
FGS Ronnie, gies a brek! That wiz ma tea … ouch, ouch, ouch.
@ Ronnie, 7:33pm
Fair ruined ma haddie!
@colin rippey
Re tax expert duties.
For whiskey, correct me if wrong, when manufactured it goes into Bond. Tax is only paid when it is sold or exported. Nearly all export is dreamed to go from English ports so the tax goes straight into the Treasury. Not the only creative accounting the government has.
I’m sure a ‘winger’ will put an annual number on it. It’s a big (help fill in “black hole”) number.
Sorry for the quick follow up.
Whiskey is about £1 billion a year in tax to the treasury.
Bob Mack says:
11 June, 2015 at 7:52 pm
The SNP have now brilliantly called their bluff by tabling the amendment and the Tories et al will have to vote against it.
Indeed, the real meaning of The Vow will soon be apparent to all.
I am sick of it. I am so sick of their pish. I could cheerfully switch off from all this for a year or two and never look back.
Just make sure I never see a union jack or I’ll get a brit-cringe so hard I might break my neck.
I always said that if there was a No vote, the means with which it was achieved would ensure that no Scot could ever feel welcome in the UK.
As you can imagine, not too happy at being right on this count.
@ IvMoz, That’s Brian Wilson going in hard in the local news. Presumably five more years of this kind of attack from big hitters like Wilson and the BBC, and people will vote for anyone but the SNP just to make it stop. I doubt there’s anyone outside of Pacific Quay, that’s lied so hard and so long about and against Scotland running Scotland either.
link to whfp.com
For Norway, the oil turned out to be a boon which will keep them prosperous for generations.
For Scotland, the oil turned out to be curse. We continue to live with massive deprivation and child poverty.
Worst of all, we cannot even be independent and try to sort out our poor state of affairs, because of the oil.
Our 56 SNP MP’s are outnumbered 11 to 1 at Westminster.
The Scottish parliament has very limited powers and a relatively limited budget.
I don’t think we will be able to achieve much politically while playing the game according to our opponents’ rules.
Only the sort of action that got rid of the poll tax will get rid of Pravda GB Scottish branch and bring meaningful powers leading to independence.
It’s the SNPs fault, every time they’re looking good and getting popular the price of oil goes down
When we had Labour the oil price was good, we never got the use of it but it was good
The SNP are doing something secret to bring the oil price down but thank God the Tories are finding this out on our behalf and telling us
Where would we be without our informative BBC and Print Media keeping us right
God! the thought of it we’d end up Independent if the great unwashed on benefit thicko brigade had their way
Someone in the Guardian warned us about that
It’s a great paper isn’t it
…and when the price goes back up hey! It’s volatile. The cursed oil again. Are we really going to go through this bollocks ad nauseum? Are we really going to listen to the ‘Scotland can’t be an independent country because’ bollocks forever and ever?
If the rest of the UK had never existed, if we were an island a few hundred miles off the coast of Europe would we, right now be a basketcase economy?
The only reason I can see to not be an an independent country is because we would have to deal with a venomous, gilted ex partner which, as anyone who has been in a bad relationship knows is no reason to stay.
I’m bored waiting for the positive case for the union. It doesn’t exist. We are just sitting in the waiting room right now. In my thinking the union is over and this is dragging interminably.
The EU ref can’t come soon enough when we get off on a technicality. It’s becoming embarrassing
link to offshore-technology.com
Just latest of hundreds of North Sea oil construction contracts all being built in Norway, with a smaller population than Scotland. Scotland builds nothing like this now and all because of decisions taken by Snatcher Thatcher, Major, Brown and Bomber Bliar and Flipper, the Treasury, City of London spivs etc
Its all a giant appalling indictment of SLabour or just another day for Scotland in teamGB.
What’s left for UKOK freak show? BBC Project Fearing again, half demented boozy SLabour has beens like Wilson ranting away with concocted smear campaigns in local rags and in neo fascist Daily Heil for christ’s sake.
The more they try to scare. insult and smear, the more our movement will grow. Because our opponents are committed to the culture of greed they think that Scottish people would rather be a population of scroungers, living off the charity of their betters, than live within their own means. What was it Burns said ‘We dare be poor for all that.’ We’re going to find out.
Listening to Scotch Labour MSPs regards FFA I think there has been a faulty line of communication.
“We are all about aspiration now. Turn up the aspiration. Maximum aspiration”, was the actual message from Accounts HQ.
Alas, this was heard as “desperation” as it filtered down the line.
Westminster will never let this happen (FFA). The Westminster Casino has been kept afloat with our oil revenue for 40 plus years now and have still managed to botch up the economy. They blame the Labour Party for this but the current deficit (90 billion) and debt (1.5 trillion) has doubled since they took over. The price of oil may have dropped (and will no doubt rise again) but they can’t survive without it.
Scotland also exports more than it imports. England imports more than it exports hence the constant need for them to borrow.
And just as a reminder Scottish salmon is the number one UK food export and our whisky constitutes 25% of ALL UK Food and Drink revenue. I could go on and on as the list is endless …. Scottish income tax, fisheries, timber ….
Billions and billions are flowing from Scotland into the Treasury. They’ll never let us get FFA as long as we’re shackled to them.
Nicola Sturgeon should start imparting facts and statistics at Holyrood based on the views of expert economists to shut Dugdale, Murray et al up. More anything remind them that most countries on the planet are running a deficit such as the one we’re lumbered with right now.
Listening to unionist biased news you’d think FFA would see Scotland as the only country in the world running a deficit.
The Defcon fear levels were at a all time high.
Under Westminster the UK’s debt has spiraled out of control.
Could Scotland really do any worse,I for one don’t think so.
Scotland, the only country in the world that has no good news, only bad.
The analysis of the economic benefits that accrue from the Scotch Whisky industry is a notable case of how the strength of Scotland’s economy can be underestimated, if not undermined, by considering Scotland’s present economic and fiscal situation as a ‘region’ of the UK.
link to reidfoundation.org
link to commonspace.scot
The latter source reports: “Professor John Kay, visiting professor of economics at the London School of Economics and fellow of St John’s College Oxford, estimates that only £400m of the £25bn global retail sales value of Scotch whisky (only two per cent) remains in Scotland. This £400m is mainly composed of wage and production costs. The substantial profit margins and intellectual property value has been exported with the cargo.”
It’s the start of the campaign for next years Holyrood election…….. They’re going to get even nastier
Their backs are against the wall
The bottom line is, Scotland needs to get control over broadcasting, or they will just carry on brainwashing us.
I’m with r-type grunt..its gotta be UDI. there’s no way they’re gonna let us ever win indieref2, or 3 etc
Not only is Scotland apparently the only country in the world running a deficit, it’s the only one in the world whose deficit must be eliminated immediately.
London subsidises the whole of the UK with the financial services sector according to the Tories
I mean, they’ll never go bust or leave London will they?
They would never ever transfer their offices anywhere else would they?
Can you export Morris Dancing?..or is that counted as culture?
Melton Mowbray pork pies maybe, is there money in that?
The Queen!!! they could sell the Queen
Why not! they’re selling everything else
I just did not realise just how volatile that oil price is.
One day – Bonanza!
Next day – Bust…
You think that editor with the funny moustache would be able to edit out the good news so they could give a consistent story. Slacker!
link to wingsoverscotland.com
The dream of Independence is becoming a reality
Slowly slowly catchee monkey!
I’d just like to reiterate what Cadogan Enright said earlier, we really do need to help those that are working hardest on our behalf.
However you feel right now, by the time the next referendum comes around we need to prepared, believe me when that time comes you will be happy that we continued the fight now.
Please support Independence live which currently is at only 47% of the target of £5800. This to pay for a full time coordinator and doesn’t even cover the expenses of those that travel to record various events and conduct interviews.
The Independence movement is lucky to have such dedicated people, let’s not let them down by abandoning them now.
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/going-forward–2#/story
(OBR) ” It was formally created in May 2010 following the general election (although it had previously been constituted in shadow form by the Conservative party opposition in December 2009)”
Ah, so it’s a Conservative Party advisory body.
“George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer of the Conservative-Liberal Democrat coalition formed after the 2010 general election, announced the body in his first official speech.”
Ah, so it’s a Conservative Government body.
“The office is currently headed by Robert Chote, formerly a director at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.”
Ah, so Lord Chote moves from one “independent” “non-political” body to another. How quaint, how – quangoish.
Oh, did I say Lord Chote?
I know people are proud of Nicola’s tour of USA, drawing attention to Scotland, drumming up trade and answering all questions put to her directly, honestly and succinctly.
But I was looking at which organisations she visited. IMF, World Bank, Council on Foreign Relations….
I know that is the world in which we live today. But I was always hoping that an independent Scotland would do things a little bit differently. You know, like Iceland or Uruguay or Switzerland or Eire…
If an independent Scotland is to be a full part of what some people might describe as the existing order (or NWO), I do not see how that can possibly tie in with the political aspirations of our citizens — and indeed many of our public figures, from Cat Boyd and Tommy Sheridan to Lesley Riddoch and Andy Wightman.
Scotland as a whole votes left-wing and the young are squarely behind the SNP and the Greens.
I know voting for independence is not voting for permanent SNP government (in fact, the SNP might cease to exist following indy!). But I was saddened also when Nicola tweeted her delight that Hillary Clinton was running for US president. I presume it was because she is a woman. That is, of course, good.
But given what Nicola supposedly thought of Thatcher, do we really need to be heading in a course whereby we would welcome a terrible war-mongerer mired in corruption (let’s be honest) as president of USA? For the life of me, I cannot see any difference between Thatcher and Ms. Clinton!
O/T but, my burd sais gie hur strength…
The UK has found a new burd and she is gutted. 250,000 people voted for *cough, cough, chough* the? Golden eagle right? Pah! The whooper Swan? Nope! the Capercallie? Fug that! Noway hosay, tbe voters want “THE ROBIN!!”
the following image was used to promote the whole charade on the news earlier, doesn’t look much like a robin tho. I think they might’ve been aiming for something more symbolic but hey ho for the democratic vote and the fickle Brittish twitcher.
link to ts4.mm.bing.net
IS NOTHING SACRED NOR EXEMPTED FROM UKOK BRANDING?
@Alastair
For whiskey, correct me if wrong, when manufactured it goes into Bond. Tax is only paid when it is sold or exported. Nearly all export is dreamed to go from English ports so the tax goes straight into the Treasury. Not the only creative accounting the government has.
I’m sure a ‘winger’ will put an annual number on it. It’s a big (help fill in “black hole”) number.
You do know that this export duty on whisky is myth right? An article did appear on this website sometime in 2013 (not written by the Rev, someone else wrote it) where this notion of export duty was introduced as “something that is attributed to England” and hidden from Scotland.
It’s a myth, I do wonder how is has managed to work it’s way into the consciousness of people but somehow it has.
Simply put, alcohol is sold in the UK and at the point of consumption (wherever in the UK that is) HMRC collects a duty on it. Alcohol exported overseas is sold in the foreign country and (if any) duty levied on the alcohol would be collected in the foreign country and not sent back to the UK.
If Scotland were independent it would export whisky to rUK but the duty would be collected by HMRC in rUK when the product was consumed. It’s the same as saying when you go into a shop and buy a bottle of champagne HMRC collects the duty levied on the bottle, the duty does not get sent back to the French producers.
‘If Scotland stays in the UK, and the UK continues in its policies that have resulted in growing inequality, even if GDP were slightly larger, the standards of living of most Scots could fall…Cutbacks in UK public support to education and health could force Scotland to face a set of unpalatable choices….It is clear that there is, within Scotland, more of a shared vision and values ,a vision of the country, the society, politics, the role of the state;values like fairness, equity and opportunity’
So says Joseph Stiglitz (The Great Divide p357) former chief economist at the World Bank. It’s obvious that Scotland needs independence to progress with its own vision- and rightly so- it won’t be forthcoming in the current UK political setup which makes a mockery of participative democracy.
Is it not the case that half a barrel is better than none.
The indoctrination continues. Interesting to see so-called intelligent colleagues’ incredulity about Scotland’s autonomy. The implicit belief is that the UK economy is A OK now that the Tories have a foothold.
Steve keen mentioned the phrase ‘theory induced blindness’ – referring to neo-liberal economists. Even when you show them the evidence, they say it can’t be the case because the ‘theory’ says so.
We have entered our first quarter of deflation. The first in 50 years. The government believe austerity will work in a very weakened economy – see Greece.
Osborne will most likely have to engage in deficit spending, but the Right wing press will smooth it over no doubt.
I spoke to a banker about capital (pre-Indy ref). Mockingly he asked, what would underpin your currency? (I’m pro Scottish pound) “Fresh water?” How he guffawed.
I asked him why China might invest billions in water plants in Patagonia. Because they are daft?
People, aided by the financial press have lost sight of what wealth actually is.
The UK is run on the printing of fiat money. It blew away its capital over 3 decades. That’s what ended the United Kingdom.
Well who knew? Unknown tribes in as yet undiscovered and remote regions of the Amazon basin could have predicted these headlines.
Only in Scotland is oil a poisonous and volatile burden. For every other bugger its Christmas every day of the year.
Westminster and its media, a match made in heav… hell.
16th September 2014, Herald editorial: “The Herald’s view: we back staying within UK, but only if there’s more far-reaching further devolution” … “(We) stand with the people of Scotland in demanding much-strengthened autonomy; something the main pro-UK parties have a profound responsibility to deliver.” …
… “This newspaper has been a passionate advocate of Home Rule for Scotland and continues to be so.” … “It will be The Herald’s mission to harry the pro-UK parties every step of the way, to ensure they deliver the devolution Scotland wants and expects.”
11th June 2015 (Herald news): “SNP plans for control of tax and spending under fire as big drop in North Sea tax revenues predicted”
Ah, right. My word is my bond.
Oil good! SNP baaad! Scotland stupid! Me keep oil money, spend on champagne. They not know difference..
Alastair
Not sure where the idiotic assumption that there is a tax on Whisky that’s exported outside the UK
The simple fact is this
Whisky, like any spirits produced in the UK is subject to Duty, Excise and VAT. The normal practice is for produced spirits to be held in bond and Duty, Excise and VAT only paid when the spirits leave the bond for sale in the home market.
If Whisky is for export then the Whisky is shipped direct from the bond and as it is leaving the UK, there is no Duty, Excise or VAT taken to account
Just on a side note, has anyone seen the Carlsberg ‘SNP’ ad? It came up before a youtube video I was watching and has a ‘Scottish’ guy wearing a kilt shouting about ‘independence’ whilst standing at a petrol station. The voiceover makes the claim that most people in Britain think that the SNP is a ‘petrol company’.
Bizarre.
OBR – Office of Bizarre Raconteurs- InsOBRrieties’ definition, lack of sobriety or moderation; intemperance; drunkenness.
Excessive uncontrolled actions.
Officially Biased Reporting
Offensive British Rogues
Obfuscation Banality Recklessness
Phronesis
Great quote
O/T
Well done Mike Small. Bella reached 50k target 🙂
@Colin Rippey
The duty paid on whisky when it’s taken out of bond is paid to the UK Government, the Treasury. It doesn’t matter whether it’s exported, sold in the UK or burnt on the spot, the duty is paid when it’s taken out of bond.
@Bob Mack
It will be laid bare for all of Scotland and England to see that the Unionists are more scared by the prospect than the SNP.
Well played the SNP strategists.
Jack Foster wrote an article on NewsShaft speculating that that was what the SNP were doing with FFA. Just like the second question in the referendum, the SNP have set up the unionists to publicly declare their hand and reject it. It also means they are constantly stuck on negative mode, with Dugdale and Murray leading the SLAB crack Special Forces team…. 😀 😀
Kenny @9.37pm.
I assumed, perhaps wrongly, that Nicola was cultivating powerful figures who could be our allies against Westminster at some point in the future should we need them.
SNP need to nail this FFR issue. If they have concerns over the effects of it’s implementation (and i’m sure they have) they need to find a way of explaining this properly.
I’ve witnessed enough opportunity for them to do this.
At the moment they are leaving themselves open to a good kicking in the msm.
Maybe Tasmania about to that very thing on qt 🙂
“But given what Nicola supposedly thought of Thatcher, do we really need to be heading in a course whereby we would welcome a terrible war-mongerer mired in corruption (let’s be honest) as president of USA? For the life of me, I cannot see any difference between Thatcher and Ms. Clinton!”
But you need to back up that kind of stuff with fact and evidence etc Kenny.
Tasmania? effin tasmania? Tasmina obviously.
Posting this for anyone who may have missed it. Excellent short film about the work of Dr David Patrick, who analysed the print media coverage of the referendum campaign.
‘Writing Off Scotland’ –
link to youtube.com
If this target is met I will be interviewed – https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/going-forward–2#/story
2 Bn over 20 Years? Sounds like the perfect time to say to Westminister – “Oil & Gas Revenues will be equivalent to 100m/year according to your ‘Independent’ Figures. As the Smith Recommendations stated that any change could not make either Scotland or the UK financially worse off at the point of change, we’ll accept a 100m reduction in the Block Grant in return for Holyrood collecting, and keeping, all the Oil & Gas Revenues from Scottish Waters”
Not our fault if the Oil Price goes back up after that.
Am enjoying sword play on Twitter with Fats MacDougall:
link to twitter.com
btw – Darlings if https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/going-forward–2#/story gets there I will be doing a live interview! See the real me!
Dugdale and Murray leading the SLAB crack Special Forces team…
That just conjures bizarre images
Well, on the bright side: if all the oil Scotlandshire produces over the next twenty years is worth only two billion, then it’ll be practically free at the pumps.
May I suggest a crowdfunder to buy the North Sea, the profit to be used to fund alternative, sustainable industries?
yesindyref2
‘It doesn’t matter whether it’s exported’
Actually there is no Duty, Excise and VAT liable on Whisky that’s exported out of the UK
Interesting aside is regards Whisky sold in ‘Duty Free’ shops at airports – the reality is, its not duty free!
That’s despite the fact that Whisky and other spirits that are sent to ‘Duty Free’ outlets under bond, without Duty, Excise and VAT. The shops do not actually sell at a realistic ‘duty free’ price.
Consider VAT alone is 20%, think about that the next time you travel abroad. Duty Free shops are the biggest rip off going (same for any products sold in Duty Free)
@Luigi says: 11 June, 2015 at 5:05 pm:
“How is it alright for the bankrupt UK to operate with a 90 billion black hole, but 7 billion would be a complete disaster for energy-rich Scotland?”
Oh! That’s an easy question to answer, Luigi.
You see, while the UK has Scotland’s oil, gas and other assets to rely upon but Scotland’s oil, gas and other assets are not there for Scotland’s use as they have already been commandeered by the UK for London and the south east’s benefit.
Grouse Beater says:
11 June, 2015 at 11:01 pm
Am enjoying sword play on Twitter with Fats MacDougall:
You re engaging with one the biggest liars in Scottish history GB. Scotland was sold by a parcel of rogues and in 300 years, dudes like Blair will have the exact same place in our countries history.
@Still Positive
Getting World Bank recognition of statehood is one of the first steps of Independence. They have to be convinced that the country can handle currency, economy, fiscal matters. Then the IMF are also important – Sturgeon gave speeches to both, and will have made contacts and an impression.
Ian Brotherhood:Posting this for anyone who may have missed it
Superb verbal thesis, and a great find, Ian.
Many thanks. 🙂
QT. Another sub par performance by the SNP rep. 🙁
e.g. Given two balls to hit out of the park from one question. Namely citing the numerous examples of disrespect for purda by the UK Government (Treasury involvement, Whitehall, ‘The Vow’ etc)
Rebutting the absurd statement from the Tory that that the UK Government ‘couldn’t say’ that they would prefer Scotland stayed in the UK.
She missed both.
@Edward
Duty etc. is payable unless exported to an approved (SEEP???) warehouse. Duty and taxes are due when taken out of them, no idea who gets the loot though, whether it’s UK or the host country.
@yesindyref2
The duty paid on whisky when it’s taken out of bond is paid to the UK Government, the Treasury. It doesn’t matter whether it’s exported, sold in the UK or burnt on the spot, the duty is paid when it’s taken out of bond.
Just so we’re absolutely clear, if Scotland were independent and exported whisky to rUK, duty would be collected by HMRC in rUK. An iScotland would not receive the duty collected in a foreign state.
You agree with this yes? Just asking because there are people who actually believe that an iScotland would somehow be paid the duty on whiskey exported to rUK.
@Colin
Scotland exports £4 billion pounds worth of whisky overseas. Nothing to do with UK duty. That is what we are talking about.
@Robert Peffers
How much oil & gas revenue does the UK commandeere? What is the figure?
I have been boring folk for years about the absolute necessity to establish that the Scottish economy is not reliant on oil revenues.
But they are at it again and we haven’t.
We need to establish that we are self supporting (with or without oil) and we win.
Nothing else matters if we don’t do this
First class performance from Tasmina on QT from Gateshead.
We are not short of talent
Re Tasmina. still much better than last week though.
Dave McEwan Hill
You and me both. Oil is just a smoke screen.
Colin Rippey at 11.41
Scotland is unlikely to be paid any duty on whiskey exported to the UK as this would have to have come from Ireland or North America
@Dave / Chic
I worked on an economic model of Scotland in the mid-70s, before oil bit. Scotland was well able to be a successful independent country back then. Since then we’ve had deindustrialisation, Scotland moved over to Silicon Glen. That moved to Malaysia etc. Scotland moved to the financial sector. Scotland is adaptive, we have to be.
Dependent on oil? No.
Chic McGregor at 11.42
Rubbish
yesindyref2 @ 11.27.
Knew that she knew what she was doing. It’s all falling into place.
Hopefully we are on our way to a free Scotland within my lifetime – I really would like to see my grandchildren benefiting from a fair society.
@Dave McEwan hill
OK for 2014 Scotland’s overseas whisky exports fell slightly to £3.96 billion pound or approx £3 a bottle, or are the figures wrong?
UK duty per bottle is around £7-8.
So if all the Scottish whisky produced were sold in the UK we would be looking at around £10 billion in duty, but it isn’t.
That £4 billion export figure is for manufacture and bottling costs of about £2.50 + a reasonable profit.
@Dave McEwan Hill
That’s one way to avoid answering a question (and yes I did notice the typo in the second reference to whisky).
@Chick Mcgregor
I think you’ll find that @Alastair and @yesindyref2 were in fact talking about the mythical export duty. Now can you explain what you mean by £4 billion of whisky? Are you saying that an independent Scotland would earn £4 billion from whisky? Really? Or do you mean Scotland’s GDP would include £4 billion from the whisky industry, not necessarily profit as such (’cause if you are I don’t think anyone disputes this).
@Dave
BTW Scotland exports NO whiskey.
Re Tasmina Ahmed-Shiekh
I’ve been impressed with her since the General Election.
She spoke really well just after the GE on a TV programme (sorry, can’t recall which one) repudiating Unionist fears and lies when they were still in shock-mode at the SNP’s success.
I hope she continues to do well.
Colin.
I am saying that Scotland exports around £4 billion in value whicky per year that provides a balance of trade earning that can be offset against anything we need to net import.
Still Positive. says:
11 June, 2015 at 10:34 pm
Kenny @9.37pm.
I assumed, perhaps wrongly, that Nicola was cultivating powerful figures who could be our allies against Westminster at some point in the future should we need them.
Yes, I do agree that we need this. Personally, I think getting the support of the EU bigwigs is the most important and I was saddened the EU did not do more to support pro-Europe YES when the UK government was using Europeans AGAINST us.
Of course, I know the EU could hardly campaign openly against a member state, but I liked the way the French handled Carmichael’s attempted Project Smear, which failed largely thanks to France.
But these IMF and World Bank people are not charity workers! And it just never pays, especially in the long-run, to give up your principles. I have seen confirmation of that time and time again.
@Paula Rose.
Ok,ok! I’ve done it. Needed to see you again. Better be good!
BBC, STV, newspapers! SNP bad! Too Wee, too poor, too stupid to run your own country!
Edward
No ping pong please but my post did say correct me if I’m wrong but it was not an invitation for you to suggest I am an idiot.
Now where’s the conical hat – aaah – in the corner.
whisky, and no I haven’t had one.
Colin Rippey says:
Just so we’re absolutely clear, if Scotland were independent and exported whisky to rUK, duty would be collected by HMRC in rUK. An iScotland would not receive the duty collected in a foreign state
So what? Everyone knows this. Its why booze prices vary so much across the planet.
Anyway Colin, once again, why is their such open panic pouring out from our unionist chums over FFA that would mean Scotland gaining control over Scottish oil reserves and industry?
Scot’s oil worthless you’re all shrieking, So give it up then Colin?
Whisky is a produce of Scotland, a particularly high added value one, which features on our trade balance as a significant positive.
The approx. 100,000 hectares of land used to grow the barley could be used in other ways, but not nearly as lucrative.
That is the real worth of whisky to Scotland.
What duty other countries decide to place on its retail sale is irrelevant.
One of Britain’s greatest mysteries is how oil, money, and democratic rights run out just as Scotland demands its fair share.
Here’s a wee glimpse of what the term ‘social security’ used to mean (aye, even to Americans!) before the NeoCon project made it synonymous with deceit, theft and laziness – a neat way to get the working-class divided and squabbling:
‘Public Information’ film from the 1950’s –
link to youtube.com
Kenny @ 12.18.
See my post at 10.34 and indyref2’s reply at 11.27 and my reply to that post at 12.04.
Think we are on the same side Kenny. But I understand your concerns.
Conservative MSP Gavin Brown is to stand down as the party’s finance spokesman in the Scottish Parliament .
The announcement came as the Lothian MSP revealed he will not seek re-election to Holyrood next year.
Mr Brown has been an MSP since 2007, and was appointed finance spokesman by the then party leader Annabel Goldie in May 2011.
He has described serving the people of the region as “an enormous privilege.”
Mr Brown said: “I will have served nine years by 2016 and would like to seek a fresh challenge going forward.
“Given that I will not seek re-election, I am standing down from my role as Scottish Conservative finance spokesman.
“This decision takes immediate effect. It has been a thoroughly fascinating role at a key time in Scottish politics. However, it is a pivotal role and I believe it must be held by someone who intends to stand at the next election.”
I think Tasmina more than held her own in that group and outed Labour for not agreeing to 16/17 year olds being allowed to vote in the forthcoming Referendum. She also got a couple of facts across such as the £1000 plus per head being allocated to London versus £5 a head for the north of England (I noticed some people looked absolutely gobsmacked with that), the train link focused on London to Manchester to the detriment of N East England / Scotland, education one way to deal with Isil, her response to the banking question and so on.
Additionally, and as per usual, she didn’t get anything like the time afforded to UKIP, Labour or the Tory politician to answer any of the questions.
What I would say is that when the Isil question came up there was an opportunity to mention the part the UK played in its creation such as the invasion of Iraq. However it was the last issue to be discussed and she may have realised that she would be lucky to get her ‘education’ point across never mind launching into a more contentious issue.
Soon as I read Colin Rippey’s alarm call about whisky duty not being worth the delusion its imprinted upon I poured myself another glass of malt! Slainte! 🙂
Chic McGregor @ 12.13am
The actual excise duty on a 75 cl bottle of Whisky
is £ 8.30 for 40% proof and £ 8.92 for 43% proof
So the price of a bottle from a whisky producer is their sale price (cost to make plus profit), plus excise, plus VAT (calculated at 20% of sale price plus excise)
For whisky exported, its just the sale price, being cost to make plus profit
(To calculate excise, its £ 27.66 per litre of pure alcohol, so £ 27.66 x (size of bottle) x proof percentage)
@Colin Rippey
No, it’s as I said. That’s the whole purpose of a “bonded warehouse”, whisky can mature without the distillery / owner / bottler paying duty for the few years it’s maturing in the cask.
“23. Excise duty is levied and collected (following a period of duty deferment) at the point when the product is released for consumption from the bonded warehouse – wherever it is located in the UK – not at the point of sale to the final consumer. “
link to scottish.parliament.uk
@Colin Rippey
Just in case you didn’t get the point of that, and read the previous paragraph as well about the HMRC following whisky from the moment the grain is bought, if Scotland was Independent, or if whisky duty / tax was devolved, it would be the responsibility of the Scottish Gvoernment to set the levels, but also to collect the revenues NOT the rUK.
The rUK could put whatever purchase or sales or import tax it wanted on the bottles, that tax would be its, as it would be on any consumer product. But the duty due on the whisky when released from bond would be the Scottish Government’s.
Yesindiref2: the duty due on the whisky when released from bond would be the Scottish Government’s.
What is it with the English? Soon as they admit something is Scots indigenous they then claim it belongs to them.
@Still Positive
Yes indeed. I’d say that there were a lot of loose ends before the last referendum, a lot of work needed to be done but no leverage to get it done, not with 6 MPs at Westminster. With 56 out of 59 however, the SNP ahve a lot more leverage, not just at Westminster but in the EU and worldwide. And Sturgeon is just the one to use that, even comparing what Scotland could achieve to what Germany achieved with unions, workers, business and the public sector (presumably government).
Next referendum there will be a lot less uncertainty, and a lot more patiently detailed “steps to becoming an independent country within the EU”. I think that will carry up to half the previous NOes.
I don’t mind Wee Rhona Dougall on the telly as long as she sticks to the script she’s given and doesn’t attempt to be too clever and thinking she’s some sort of Investigative Wee Journo
Because tonight her attitude nearly got her greasy Wee Unbrushed Heid bitten off by an increasingly (Fed up with stupid questions First Minister)
If you didn’t see it try and pick it up somewhere
I thought the FM was about to reach through the telly and do a Raptor on Wee Rhona and she’d have had nobody to help her (Help me Rhona)
I must admit I like it when the First Minister gets Nippy
What does that say about me?
@Grouse Beater
I don’t think he understands the difference between duty and tax. Or excise and revenue!
Cereal, sorry, not grain. Did I say grain? Wash my mouth out with a malt. Mmmmm. That’s better.
Take a look at the number of countries Worldwide that don’t have any oil at all and are doing well for themselves: Would no doubt be over the moon if oil was found off their shores.
Here in the UK it’s all of a sudden seen to be some sort of a curse, ball and chain or massive obstacle that the Scots have to overcome. Worse still some brainwashed and / or ignorant Scots seem to believe this. If the 60 million plus UK population was benefitting greatly from oil at 120 / 130 dollars a barrel I suspect that 5 million Scots could more than cope with the current 60 dollars a barrel of oil.
It’s no wonder Labour in Scotland is rapidly going down the stank. We expect Westminster to promote the ‘too wee, poor, stupid’ concept but when you hear another Scot, such as Kezia Dugdale, promoting this it just turns your stomach.
She should ask herself if it’s such a worthless burden why are we having trouble prizing it out of Westminsters claws. And more than anything, the age old basic, if Scotland is such a financial liability why are they so desperate to hang on to us. DUH!
@yesindyref2
So in your world, an independent Scotland would impose a tax on all whisky exported to foreign countries (you can call that tax duty if you want).
That would be a totally different situation from what occurs now. I wonder how the whisky industry would feel about their product suddenly becoming more expensive to export to the US, to Japan, to China, to Europe, or even the rUK.
Any whisky exported to rUK would still be subject to the exact same duty imposed on all alcohol sold in the rUK, and that duty would be collected by HMRC in rUK.
And again just to be clear, in the UK at the moment whisky has a duty of £26 per litre of pure alcohol alongside other spirits of similar alcohol by volume.
What in your mind would be the amount of tax an iScotland would impose on whisky before it is exported?
@Colin Rippey
Did you bother to read my postings before spouting fantasy?
@ Colin Rippey If Scotland was Independent it could if it so chose to not sell whisky to the R/uk. You Already know that you need us More than we need Wastemonger. And hopefully soon we will leave like the angels share.
OBR Who set that up and appointed people on it
IFS Who set that up and appointed people on it
Mark Carney “”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
Anymore Institutions I haven’t thought of
Jings Crivvens Help ma Boab
Djae think it’s a plot
O/T – what’s happened to Alan Cochrane over at the Telegraph? Have they put him on a new contract where he only gets to write a guest column on an occasional basis?
For those of us looking for a journalist who “cuts through the baloney and explores all corners of the devolved government in Edinburgh with vigour” where do we now go?
Try not to feed the trolls, especially ones who think they know something and just come across as some smug intellectual wanna-be.
Just to be clear, mind.
link to caltonjock.com
ALANM @ 7.16
“For those of us looking for a journalist who “cuts through the baloney and explores all corners of the devolved government in Edinburgh with vigour” where do we now go?”
Here
link to tinyurl.com
Does anyone have infroon Derek Bateman’s last post, which has mysteriously no longer available, concerning major problems at BBC Scotland News?
@ALANM
Oh dear – Poor old Cockers put out to grass at the ToryGraph at last?
He really should have retired years ago before dementia set in.
I suppose he will still be on the BBC PQ now and again though – they are desperate these days.
Just shows you – No Unionist can withstand the power of the “Curse of No”.
Here’s another ‘what happens next?’
Twice now, in the space of less than a year, the voters of Scotland have voted for FFA.
FFA will now be put before parliament.
Bu99er all will happen, of course !
DevoA-Wee-Bit-More-With-Bear-Traps is what WM has in mind.
Dr Jim says:
I must admit I like it when the First Minister gets Nippy
What does that say about me?
_______________
That you would like to be dominated by our First Minister?
Dr Jim @1-21am
Completely agree about Rhona on STV Tonight (Thurs 11th). It was good to see the FM have such restraint and just treat her like a thick child. How does that woman, Dougall, get to do ‘serious’ political interviewing? ( Can’t help thinking of the ‘Magic Roundabout’ character!!).
The next item when she interviewed Hosie and that Labour idiot meant a good night for the SNP, IMHO!
@BtP
here is the link from Scot goes Pop but has been taken down as goes to a 404 error.
“Derek Bateman
Serious Trouble at BBC Scotland – The reputation of BBC Scotland takes yet another serious hit today as details begin to emerge of shocking management behaviour in News and Current Affairs….
9 hours ago”
Shame it must have been a good read.
I think he must have got a call from his lawyer first thing this morning?
@yesindyref2
Did you bother to read my postings before spouting fantasy?
And your snippet (emphasis mine):
23. Excise duty is levied and collected (following a period of duty deferment) at the point when the product is released for consumption from the bonded warehouse – wherever it is located in the UK – not at the point of sale to the final consumer.
An independent Scotland would not be in the UK – why is this so difficult to understand?
The link you provide makes no mention of anything to do with independence nor does it make any mention of the what “export duty” is levied on sales of whisky to foreign states.
Once again, this notion that Scotland is somehow “cheated” out of export duty on sales of whisky to foreign states is a myth. Why do you believe this?
And I ask you again (since you brought it up), the current UK duty on whisky equates to around 60% of the retail price a consumer pays.
if Scotland was Independent, or if whisky duty / tax was devolved, it would be the responsibility of the Scottish Gvoernment to set the levels, but also to collect the revenues NOT the rUK.
This revenue you speak of, what would it be? Can you explain what this is? It would not be the alcohol duty that the rUK levies on its citizens as that is now collected by the foreign state.
This revenue you speak of (if I am reading your statement correctly) is a new tax that would be slapped onto any bottle of whisky exported from Scotland (in other words – your mythical export duty would come into being).
What level would this newly introduced export duty be? How much would it increase the price of a bottle of whisky?
Folks,
Today is Charlie Kennedy’s funeral.
Thoughts go out to his family and especially his wee lad Donald.
@BtP @ Hoss
type cache: before the http part of the URL and the cached version comes up
@Skilday says: 11 June, 2015 at 5:28 pm:
“Remarkably few headlines will be allowed in Scotland, Westminster and uk/scottish media suffering from cognative dissonance in relation to oil and how it affects Our economy but not theirs”.
But! But! But!
Where is this, “Scottish Oil”, they speak of?
The only oil anywhere in the United Kingdom is officially recorded in the accounts as coming from, “Extra Regio Territory”, and the revenues are thus 100% the property of Her Majesty’s Treasury in London.
The only benefit that Scotland gets is through employment of those who service the oil & gas industry for most of the international companies actually extracting the oil & gas have registered offices outwith Scotland so even the workers income tax and the tax on the profits and shares in those companies is from the London Financial sector.
Hoss: Derek Bateman- Serious Trouble at BBC Scotland – The reputation of BBC Scotland takes yet another serious hit today as details begin to emerge of shocking management behaviour in News and Current Affairs….
9 hours ago”
Either ‘rogue’ engineer switching feed to SNP interviewee off and on until line goes down, ‘Sorry, we seem to be having technical problems’ or management demanding less time for SNP interviews.
Capella says:
“type cache:”
Clever. Bateman stuff. Thanks.
Colin Rippey
Let’s boil things down to basics.
Do you believe Scotland is a nation, or do you consider it to have been extinguished in 1707? Do you think nations should govern themselves in all aspects, including control over all tax and spend decisions?
I shall consider you to have forfeited the argument if you hide behind the EU.
Hoss: Poor old Cockers put out to grass at the ToryGraph at last?
He served his political purpose, as brutal politicians are apt to say. No loyalty in the No camp easy to predict.
We are once more under attack by the Westminster dogs and their proxies. FFA is scaring the wits out of them.
Watching ” Scottish Questions” this week we saw them going into full flow.
Attempts by Mundell, shamefully trying to make out the SNP were financially hopeless.This is being said everywhere in various ways, in the hope it sticks.
Of course aided and abetted by Labour at every chance. The BBC are overflowing putting out SNP bad joined by all the MSM.
FFA is not an albatross for our necks, it is a chance to advance Independence by a large margin. We are once more under full BT attack. The most debt Scotland has, is Westminster induced, a lot of it to rob us, but also to keep us down.
So expect very much more doom and gloom spread like dung with a shovel. They have learned nothing, Scots now what they are, and know who they are, it is too late to put the cat back in the bag. The emperor has no clothes, we see him clearly and he is no joke, he is a nasty, wrinkled very old man.
So, on oil, and OBR’s bollocks prediction capabilities, there is this in Norway: “It’s out-take, at just 2.6 percent of the value of the $890bn fund, is nonetheless well within the country’s self-imposed limit of 4 percent. ”
Norway responds to downturn in oil prices with a plan.
Dear! Oh! Dear!
BBC Radio Against Scotland this morning is debating FFA. I’m sure that BBC-AS has a pair of special lists. One of idiotic members of the public and another of, “Independent”, experts that they trot out for these programmes.
I’ve never come across so many biased broadcasters, independent experts and sheer bloody numpties in my life.
Oh! No! Now they have trotted out, of all people, Jackie Baillie. If it was farcical before it has now reached the point of sheer utter idiocy.
Listening to John Beattie just now.
He has got yon John McLaren on along with Stewart Hosie.
It sounds as if his earpiece is telling him to tell us every few mnutes that McLaren is neutral (stop laughing at the back).
That would be the same McLarenn who appeared on TV countless times in the run-up to 18/9 arguing for BT.
A few mnutes ago McLaren made a pretty lame atempt to convince is that he was neutral in spite of having worked for Labour in the past.
We’ve now got Gorgeous Pouting Jackie Baillie on which should be good for a laugh.
Jackie Baillie saying every hospital would close with FFA, such is the catastrophe.
What gets me about this shite is no one acknowledges that Swinney is the only Finance Minister in Europe who has balanced the books into the black for 7 years, and even SNP don’t exploit that.
So now, Swinney and SNP want FFA so they can run the country into the ground?
Why can’t they see what a financial disaster we are shackled to?
Can someone please explain in baby steps what the “type cache” thing means?
I really want to read the Derek Bateman piece about BBC Scotland. Can someone please explain how to do this?
Thanks!
If we are prepared to invade and go to war with Countries who have oil we don’t own, imagine what we would do to Countries who have oil we do control.
Haha, Jackie git telt!
‘You and your ilk are delighted that Scotland would be in debt, you just go around like fish taking the hook London throws out’
Good to hear.
Also, Jackie says there is no oil off the West coast, that is a myth, apparently.
Go to Off Topic and I paste it there for you.
Will take about 20 mins to appear.
Like others I would like to learn what Derek Bateman said about BBC news.
Can somebody just give us the jist?Thanks.
well you know we have hit an onion nerve when they pull out the big oil lie once again.
How stupid do they think we are, Scotland the only country in the world who`s oil is worthless aye right more like dont tell them how much it is worth if they take it away from us how are we going to pay off the 1.5 trillion we owe and borrowed because of the oil.
As for FFA it isnt going to happen not now not ever they can not afford it,all we are seeing is delay tactics something they are very good at and if we let them they will string this out for the next 10 years,no the only choice for Scotland is independence the sooner the better.
Yes BBC at it again on FFA, we should know by now, they are an arm of the Westminster cabal.
@ Fireproofjim
It seems that there are deep resentments about the way staff are allegedly treated in News and Current Affairs. But since this is likely to become a legal matter, it’s probably best to wait and see what is reported. I’m sure Derek will be more forthcoming as soon as he can.
Edward, a standard spirits bottle is 70 cl not 75 cl, wine is 75 cl.
Whisky is best viewed in terms of what its value as a produce to an independent Scotland would be.
Which is substantial.
Scotland produces around 70% of a bottle of whisky for every man, woman and child in Scotland every day.
In balance of trade terms it would almost pay for everything else Scots eat and drink.
That is, in theory, we could abandon all other food and drink production in Scotland and use whisky export revenue alone to import everything we need to eat and drink. Nearly.
That is how big it is.
Of course we also produce nearly 30% of British beef, nearly 25% of lamb, around 80% of conventionally caught fish and nearly 100% of aquaculture (mainly salmon).
But unlike Scotland, the rUK is a massive net food and drink importer.
The UK overall had a £21 billion pounds trade deficit on food and drink last year. That dwarfs oil revenue.
That amounts to well over a £1000 per family per year going out of the UK economy which, of course has to be paid in one way or another, before we (UK) start paying for anything else.
@ Quinie frae Angus
Google caches all web pages. So if a page you want to read has been removed, you can sometimes retrieve it by typing “cache:” (without the quotation marks). before the address.
So
link to wingsoverscotland.com
would become
cache:link to wingsoverscotland.com
Colin Rippey wrote
“Any whisky exported to rUK would still be subject to the exact same duty imposed on all alcohol sold in the rUK, and that duty would be collected by HMRC in rUK.”
That is true for importers in respect to VAT, but not necessarily duty. Free market?
It could be released to the EU export market ‘duty paid’ (and rumpUK is an scottish export market) after being paid to an independent Scottish government, which would be the only way the manufacturers could reclaim relief on import duty paid for imported ingredients. There is the consideration that Duty points will change if Scotland becomes independent….Something that some people like that kevin hague guy do not seem to have considered at all in their analysis….perhaps it was inconvenient to do any analysis of the numbers, but probably just because they didn’t grasp the nuances and minimising the tax receipt value fits the agenda. To be honest to him, He probably didn’t fully realise the impact
It is something I have considered for a future pension investment should Scotland become independent. If a Scottish government cut the rate of alcohol duty, it would make it a very cost effective way for alcohol importers from outside the EU to import to the rump UK by going through Scottish ports ‘duty paid’ for release onto the open EU market which is really the RumpUK. ….So the port companies could be a sound investment In fact this is so likely, I would consider that some sort of non- rump UK damaging trade agreement would have to be formed. I think this is happening for Northern Ireland alcohol duty receipts with ‘duty paid’ stuff crossing from Eire….and in fact the other way too.
The one thing for certain is that purely consumption based tax consideration is just plain underestimation of what the scottish tax revenues would be, because the natural change in location of the duty point alone will force duty more onto onto production, especially for exports.
So my guess would be that an independent Scotland could increase it’s total tax receipts by cutting the Alcohol Duty rate.
On the other hand, This can all be summed up by SNP Bad and SNP Lies…..even thought I aint in the SNP and its actually my musings on some future potential pension considerations.
@Bugger the Panda
OK thanks, BtP. Will look for it on Off Topic in a wee whilie.
Here is the Derek Bateman story that you are asking for 🙂
link to archive.is
FFA would seem simple. All tax and spending except defence and diplomacy. Among other things, it would stop Scotland contributing to things we get no benefit from, like the so call National Infrastucture projects which pour money into SE England.
However, between the lines I can already see that FFA is being interpretated as ‘the money Holyrood spends’, a replacement for the block grant just. Presumably Scotland is expected to continue to send the balance south to spend on more than just defence and diplomacy.
The Unionists don’t want us to have FFA. We can’t take, we can only be given it. They will never give it.
Even if Scotland did get it, it would be far from the simple pure FFA people imagine. It would be partial and full of traps to trip up and discredit the Scottish Government to put us off even limited self determination.
However, it looks like we need to go through the motions for voting for it, expecting it, demanding it, debating it … then being denied it!
Which is just fine. When the FFA demon has been exorcised, we can concentrate on real powers and control through full independence!
galamcennalath: 12 June, 2015 at 10:33 am
FFA would lessen WM’s grip on Scotland – they would be able to set traps as you say, but nowhere near as many traps as we are about to see with “additional” powers/Smith Minus that we are to be blessed with in the coming session.
I do agree that we need to go through the motions though. The three unionist parties need to be outed as the anti-democratic, anti-Scottish, selfish, corrupt organisations that they really are. Some people may still believe that the red and yellow tories support home rule for Scotland. We will soon find out – places to hide are fast running out, since the 56 appeared at WM.
O/T
I just signed this petition
link to change.org
Re Jackie Baillie and understanding her output.
Baillie is a product of the Colonial British Empire (born in Hong Kong) and I strongly suspect that her background dictates her behaviour.
She is a dyed in the wool British Nationalist and almost certainly views Scotland and the idea of Scotland, in a patronising and colonial way.
Her world view is anachronistic.
Scotland is a colony as far as she is concerned.
Baillie is a part of the colonial establishment, where telling lies to the natives is just part of the colonial mindset and acceptable.
Baillie is patronising in the extreme; her abundant lies illustrate this.
In summary, Baillie is constantly looking down her nose at Scottish people and views us with contempt.
Nicola has done well winning hearts and minds in the States and I understand a certain amount of Realpolitik is inevitable but it’s a bit disappointing to see her give time to the IMF and buy into the NATO false narrative on Russia.
I’ll treat the SNP as s means to an end now but post-Indy I think I’ll move to the Greens.
I get the impression we would have to sign over all our food,drink,oil,energy etc revenues to London and only then would they let us have independence. Blood sucking leeches.
@Chic McGregor says: 12 June, 2015 at 12:17 am:
” … I am saying that Scotland exports around £4 billion in value whicky per year that provides a balance of trade earning that can be offset against anything we need to net import.”
You hit a nail there, Chic. Here’s some basic facts that seem to be mainly hidden away and never mentioned. Due mainly to the usual artificially created, and unnecessary, complicated, “Creative Accountancy”, of the United Kingdom.
Scotland is a net exporter of food, (including drink), power and fuel. While the rest of the United Kingdom are net importers of all three. Now let us consider how that, “Creative Accountancy”, is disguised to make it look as if Scotland is a poor country and England/UK are subsidising Scotland.
Food and drink exports are recorded by the point in the United Kingdom from where the goods leave the United Kingdom. Not, as they should be, by where the goods are produced in the United Kingdom. For example, the London registered company, “Diagio”, reports its exports of Scottish produced whisky, gin and other spirits. However, these are recorded as English exports because they leave England via English ports and airports.
The same applies to even Scottish bottled water, meat, fish and other food and drink exports. Then we come to the Scottish produced power and this again is creatively accounted by use of the absolutely thieving, “Grid Connection Charges”, applied to the United Kingdom’s, “National Grid”. These impose upon the Northern Scottish power producers an extra charge upon each kilowatt of energy they add to the National Grid of and subsidise the south of England power producers. Here are recent statistics :-
Here are recent official figures : –
North Scotland = £25.546025 .
West Devon & Cornwall = -£5.804749.
Central London = -£5.804749.
So the Northern Scottish Power Generators are paying £25.546025 for every Kilowatt of power they generate while those in South Britain are subsidised by £5.804749.
That is a total difference of £31.350774 for every kilowatt the Northern Scots generate. Then there is the often forgotten fact that the great bulk of the Northern Scottish power is exported to, (mainly), England while the South of England is importing power. Incidentally Scotland exported over 26% of her generated power in the last financial period.
Then we have other, “Nice Little Earners”, for United Kingdom plc. The Scottish Crown Estates legally belongs, under Scottish law, to the sovereign people of Scotland while that of the United Kingdom belongs to the United Kingdom Crown, (under English law, (as a Constitutional Monarchy)), that is the Westminster Parliament. Yet in the late 1800s the Establishment took the Scottish Crown Estate management away from Edinburgh to London and included it with the Kingdom of England Crown Estates, (which included Wales & N. Ireland).
We also see the fines, (both court & on-the-spot), levied by the independent Scottish Legal System sent directly to the United Kingdom Treasury. Yet when it comes to paying for the policing of the off-shore oil & gas installations it is the local authorities adjacent to the installations that stumps up for the costs.
There is also a scam with Aggregates, (that is the tax upon the extraction of stone, gravel and sands), in Scotland. Not to mention that UK wide companies with English Head Offices collect such things as VAT, Road Fuel Duty, Betting Tax, Alcohol Duty and lots more on behalf of the UK Treasury pay these into the system via their, (mainly London), Head Offices and this is thus shown in the books of United Kingdom plc as English raised revenues.
The real biggy is, of course, that all oil & gas revenues are recorded as being from, “Extra-region Territory”, yet around 95% of the stuff comes from internationally recognised as under Scottish jurisdiction but 100% of the revenue is accounted for as United Kingdom revenue.
The obvious truth is that the figures trotted out by the Unionists have more holes in them than an Icelandic fishing Trawler’s nets.
@CameronB
Let’s boil things down to basics.
Do you believe Scotland is a nation, or do you consider it to have been extinguished in 1707? Do you think nations should govern themselves in all aspects, including control over all tax and spend decisions?
I shall consider you to have forfeited the argument if you hide behind the EU.
I have NO problem with Scotland becoming independent if that’s what the people of Scotland vote for, NO problem.
What I have a problem with is in the argument for independence there is a belief that there is some sort of “hidden income” that is not made visible to people voting for independence, and that voters are “tricked” into believing that Scotland would be better off remaining part of the UK.
I really don’t know why people who seek independence still try to convince others that “London keeps all the money”, “extra-regio territory has all the oil & gas revenue”.
Why don’t you all just play the line “it will be difficult at first, perhaps very difficult in economic terms as iScotland comes to terms with managing it’s own economy – but it will get better eventually and it will mean Scotland gets the government it votes for and not a government fundamentally chosen by the rUK”.
Have a position of Scotland having it’s own currency as that will totally remove all arguments of deficit gap black holes, as only a nation that controls it’s own currency can control it’s deficit via borrowing – a nation with it’s own currency can choose to have “as big a deficit as the market will support”.
Other countries of similar size have gone through extremely tough economic conditions over the last few years (Ireland to name one) but they are coming out of it now, sure they’ve had lots of hardship but it’s behind them now and their economy is back to growing again.
Jackie Baillie also went to boarding school in England. She’s elite don’t you know.
an’t connect to Wigs Twitter, says server not found.
@Robert Peffers
The real biggy is, of course, that all oil & gas revenues are recorded as being from, “Extra-region Territory”, yet around 95% of the stuff comes from internationally recognised as under Scottish jurisdiction but 100% of the revenue is accounted for as United Kingdom revenue.
The GERS methodology estimates what an independent Scotland would earn from oil & gas, do you accept the GERS methodology? If not, what are your figures for how much revenue an independent Scotland would earn in revenue from oil & gas?
This is a simple question, you’ve never answered it. You’re very keen to trot out figures for all sorts of areas but I’ve never seen your figures for this specific question. Do they differ from what GERS estimates them to be?
Dugface says oil would have to reach $200 for Scotland’s books to balance. Pity John Swinney didn’t ask what oil would have to reach for the UK’s books to balance.
@Chic McGregor
Here’s some of the facts about whisky that Chokka folks love to leave out when banging on their one line argument of “consumption tax”…
• Exports generate £3.95 billion for the UK balance of trade.
• Exports earn £125 every second for the UK Exchequer.
• About £1 billion contributed to the Exchequer in taxes (assume consumption for rUK only).
• 38 bottles were shipped overseas each second.
• 99 million cases (12 70cl bottles at 40% vol) were exported worldwide.
• More than 10,000 are directly employed in the Scotch Whisky industry – many in economically deprived areas.
• Over 40,000 jobs across the UK are supported by the industry.
Now where appropriate, replace UK with Scottish.
According to our critics, the Scotch Whisky industry, just like our oil industry, doesn’t really help our independence case…ALLEGEDLY.
Colin-who compiles the GERS figures? UK govt.? and you believe them?
Colin-according to Wikipedia on the gers figures “significant amounts of public spending are not easily identifiable by nation or region” so I would tend to believe the other posters over your opinion.
@Grouse Beater says: 12 June, 2015 at 1:11 am:
” … What is it with the English? Soon as they admit something is Scots indigenous they then claim it belongs to them?”
This is what I’ve been chipping away at for what seems like forever. It is the old unremitting Establishment propaganda. They deliberately use the terms, country, kingdom, England, Great Britain, Britain and so on as if they were all mutually interchangeable but Scotland, Wales, Ireland and Northern Ireland are distinct entities.
Then if there is any remaining doubt that everything belongs entirely to the English Establishment they invent a new term to cover the doubts. As they did when oil & gas was discovered to be mainly in Scottish territory.
They dreamt up that glorious new term, “Extra-Regio Territory”, to secure the revenues for the English Crown, a.k.a the United Kingdom/English Parliament.
@David Smith 11.01
I’ll treat the SNP as a means to an end now but post-Indy I’ll move to the Greens
Thanks a lot and we SNP supporters will remember that sentiment come the Holyrood Elections
Too many times I keep hearing this and it does not sit well with me that the Party who has sacrificed and done more for Scotland is to be abandoned on delivery of what folk want
for others
@ Valerie says ‘’Also, Jackie says there is no oil off the West coast, that is a myth, apparently.’’
Jackie at her lying AGAIN!
link to youtube.com
@Wp 11.23am
Stuart Hosie said to apply the same logic to the UK
the price would have to be $1500 a barrel
They’re a scream these Unionists they didn’t think that one through
I stumped up an extra £50 for these guys – can u contribute or post on your local network?
44 hours left
http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/going-forward–2#/story
Or
http://Www.independencelive.net
Going a bit O/T for the moment.
I had been doing a bit of googling about Quantitative Easing. From what I can gather, the process is that the Bank of England, owned by the UK government, electronically prints money and with that money buys UK government bonds. The UK government has to pay interest on these bonds and with the ones bought by the B.O.E, the interest is therefore paid to them.
In effect, money from one part of the UK government is being transferred to another part of the UK government and it is sitting in the Bank of England Asset Purchase Fund (BEAPFF). Also from what I can gather, the cash reserves of this fund is standing at £35 billion. If true, it could be used to fund government spending thus rendering austerity measures obsolete.
If that I have gathered is correct, it shows that there is a lot of ‘black arts’ and paper shuffling at the heart of HM Treasury. We don’t know the true extent of tax and spending in Scotland and therefore unable to make a correct assessment of FFA as all parties in the debate have to rely on data form HM treasury that is not fully transparent.
In this way, it is going to be hard to persuade people about ignore these scare stories and make a convincing argument for FFA. IMHO, one way to get round this is to highlight these ‘accounting’ practices by HM Treasury which produces these figures.
The Graun can totally go fuck itself with an artisanal sourdough ciabatta.
Are they really that thick?
Dr Jim
Like you I am SNP through and through, but it is inevitable that, come Independence, various supporting factions, like Greens, will hive themselves off and make their own way.
Nothing wrong with that. The big prize is Independence and after that we will be like any other country with a spectrum of parties.
Meanwhile we must encourage every shade of opinion to vote for Independence.
Icy spark
Thanks for the Bateman link re BBC
James Kelly MSP is a dead ringer for brilliant recently passed away comedian John Fortune
@Robert Peffers
The English also subordinated our Scottish royal lineage with the title QE2 instead of the correct QE1 of GB+NI,same applies to Edward 7+8 should have been E1 + E2 of GB+I +GB+NI.
@Joemcg
The GERS figures are compiled by the Scottish Government’s chief statistician. They are an attempt to present the position that an independent Scotland would find itself in upon independence.
Again, the Scottish Government’s chief statistician produces the report, the data within the report is drawn from a range of sources, some of which is taken from HMRC data. But the source is there for all to see and for you to look at and make up your own mind.
Now, if you’d rather accept “the opinions of some people on the Internet who have nothing to back up their figures” as opposed to the Scottish Government themselves (you know, the same Scottish Government that has been run by the SNP since 2007) then that is entirely up to you.
GERS is an attempt to present the situation upon independence. Unlike the OBR or the IFS, GERS only presents “what is believes has happened” instead of projections such as the OBR that will almost certainly (in the case of oil) be hopelessly out of date within months of being published.
It’s not that long ago that the GERS 2011-2012 came out with what appeared to be a favourable position for Scottish independence in that the deficit gap between Scotland and the rUK was in Scotland’s favour. The 2011-2012 GERS reportswas used as the source for some of the SNP White Paper (and indeed used as a source in The Wee Blue Book).
Now that we’ve had 2 GERS reports since 2011-2012 that don’t present such a rosy picture we find people “challenging” the figures.
You can believe what you want, but having a mind-set of “I don’t believe that GERS stuff, it must be wrong ’cause this guy on some blog somewhere said it’s wrong” then I think that says more about you than the validity of the GERS report frankly.
Dr Jim.
No need to take it personally. I’ve been an SNP member for many years. I appreciate hugely what they have done but the notion of an independent Scotland transcends any one party. I will continue to back them to the point were independence is achieved.
I just believe they are backing the wrong geopolitical horse now.
I suspect that if the vote on NATO membership were taken today, there might be a different result.
@Giving Goose says: 12 June, 2015 at 10:46 am:
” … In summary, Baillie is constantly looking down her nose at Scottish people and views us with contempt.”
Besides which, Baillie is as thick as a daud o afu smelly stuff in a rather narrow necked glass vessel.
OT. I accept that Scottish independence will not be a panacea and will only represent an open door to Scotland’s self-betterment, but is Fintan O’Toole perhaps ignoring the incredibly conservative nature of Irish society, with respect to the longstanding dominance of the Catholic church?
Scottish Independence ‘might not change much’
link to archive.is
Colin Rippey
Thanks for the reply. Please correct me if wrong, but I’ll assume you are a non-Scot who believes what the BBC and Westminster tell you. Surely you don’t expect the Establishment to play an honest game? Did you believe them about Saddam’s WMD? What about protected pedophiles in government?
Would you accept that these small countries that have recently experienced financial difficulty, especially Ireland, were saddled with toxic debts sold to European banks by the bankrupted American banks who were no longer kept in check by Glass-Steagall? Their financial difficulties were sold to them by shysters. With regards to a Scottish currency, I have always favoured using Sterling during the transition to independence, before launching a Scottish currency. This would, of course, be backed by Scotland’s oil and positive trade balance, so will most probably be extremely strong, unlike Sterling. This would produce both chalenges and opportunities for Scotland’s future development, though I’m sure we’d get by and most probably prosper once able to enjoy the full benefits of our labour.
Colin Rippey
P.S. You do understand how colonialism works?
# Valerie says:
12 June, 2015 at 9:54 am
“Also, Jackie says there is no oil off the West coast, that is a myth, apparently.”
She might want to read this before repeating her claim.. never say never.
link to inpublic.globenewswire.com
@ Colin Rippey says
Now that we’ve had 2 GERS reports since 2011-2012 that don’t present such a rosy picture we find people “challenging” the figures.
Usual condescending sneary unionist stuff Colin. Its like Britnats raging away at SNP for an FFA date, as in “you can give an independence day date, you can give us an FFA date too, you clowns and liars”
What is clear that a Scottish independence date is completely different from Scottish fiscal autonomy. Project Fear, BBC, you etc all shut down Scottish independence for a wee while and now you’re all monstering FFA.
Why the naked fear Colin?
Independence,FFA,
I keep hearing arguments like (will we be worse off, better off, the economy might be volatile)
Can I just say we’ll be Responsible
and for those who genuinely worry about it let me ask this question (Do you trust the Tories or Labour to do the best they can for Scotland and are they making a good job of it now)
It always seems to me that the Unionists and the Fearties
want all the answers from us but they’re answers are always the same which are (Better to stick with what you know or that somehow it’s in Scotlands interest to just depend on the “Real Bosses” in England because somehow or other they’re really smart and we’re not)
It’s about time the aforementioned Unionists and Fearties started answering the bloody questions as to their support for corruption and outright thievery within the Governments they would choose to have us ruled by
To answer Fireproofjim Do you want to see a competent and professional team like the SNP supplanted by unproven parties who have as yet not shown any indication of those qualities
It’s fine having ideas but those ideas have to be demonstrably proven and so far I hear a lot of Re-Nationalise the Railways, Pay everybody more, and stop using oil for fuel, which as an idea is all fine, but prove it can be done,
and that’s a lot of the problem with other parties at the moment, it’s really easy to be in opposition to something
look at Labour, it’s a lot more difficault actually doing something
I merely point these things out as I have had conversations with folk of differing views and I even have a young lady relative who is quite well known in one of these semi popular parties who herself admits she wouldn’t have a clue what to do if she were to be elected
Now that kinda worries me
Whilst I understand an accept everyone has to learn the ropes, just being Radical for the sake of it is a lot less than enough
The SNP didn’t do this overnight, they’ve been working at this for years and if the powers that be in London thought for one second the SNP could be shifted out they’d be on us like treacle and newcomer politicians wouldn’t have a hope so in the fairly long term the SNP must be allowed to Govern, it’s not only their right, it’s our safety
@Wp Stewart Hosie said it would be $1.500 to balance the UK’s Books.
@David Smith
The SNP will change in line with its members,so membership of NATO,fracking and backing big buisness will all be under reveiw.
Having been present at the SNP conference, as a delegate, for the first time this year.I saw democracy in action,when every member was able to vote on ammendments.Dont forget that your local branch can submit an ammendmend at any conference,and If you wish to suggest one you have the power.
I have a feeling the party will change over the years,and some Green supporters like yourself will possibly stay with the SNP following independence.
The GERS figures are compiled by the Scottish Government’s chief statistician. They are an attempt to present the position that an independent Scotland would find itself in upon independence.
That is not entirely correct. The Government Expenditure and Revenue return is part of the requirement of the Scottish Government’s transparency requirements and have been posted by all Holyrood Governments.
The numbers have been used to base arguments for and against independence but obviously there are areas that are not covered. Trade balances, foreign currency reserves, interest payments on deficit borrowing etc. all fall outside the remit of GERS.
Their primary purpose is not to make a case for independence and they were never designed to do so.
I once drafted a report for the old Scottish Office, assessing the cost-effectiveness of expenditure of tens of millions over a number of projects throughout Scotland. This expenditure was subject to very specific Treasury rules, which roughly 80% of the projects failed to meet. The report wasn’t published for a number of years, and when finally published, omitted almost all failures and reported on those projects which passed or narrowly failed the test.
I have found it hard to believe any official stats since this experience.
Anyone aware of any SNP representation at Charles Kennedy’s funeral?
Watching BBC Scotland news and no suggestion either way and we saw Danny Alexander and George Brown, but no one from the SNP!
@CameronB Brodie
Thanks for the reply. Please correct me if wrong, but I’ll assume you are a non-Scot who believes what the BBC and Westminster tell you. Surely you don’t expect the Establishment to play an honest game? Did you believe them about Saddam’s WMD? What about protected pedophiles in government?
So I disagree with you on something and your mindset is that I must have an opposite view to everything you believe in yes? You have come to this conclusion because of what? I have challenged the view that Scotland is missing out on whisky export duty that doesn’t exist. Now because of this I believe in WMDs and protecting paedophiles. Quite a leap you’ve made eh?
Would you accept that these small countries that have recently experienced financial difficulty, especially Ireland, were saddled with toxic debts sold to European banks by the bankrupted American banks who were no longer kept in check by Glass-Steagall? Their financial difficulties were sold to them by shysters.
Perfectly willing to accept the the citizens of countries such as Ireland were criminally served by their banking industry (just like the citizens in the UK) and they had to suffer the hardships of almost economic ruin because of it.
My point was that they have suffered the type of economic problems that would present themselves to an iScotland – but they have gotten through it (it was tough but it didn’t last forever). They’ve come out the other side.
With regards to a Scottish currency, I have always favoured using Sterling during the transition to independence, before launching a Scottish currency.
This is where you lose me. If iScotland wanted to keep using the £ (and let’s say that the rUK threat of not having a currency union was a bluff and iScotland and rUK were in a currency union) then iScotland would be faced with borrowing constraints laid down by the currency union they were in.
The figures we have from GERS tell us that iScotland would have to borrow more in terms of GDP % than the rUK would. This would be a fundamental problem and would have to be dealt with by either spending cuts or tax rises (or more likely both).
But…it wouldn’t last forever. It might take 5 years for iScotland’s economy to align to being independent, but it would align and then start to grow again.
This would, of course, be backed by Scotland’s oil and positive trade balance, so will most probably be extremely strong, unlike Sterling.
Based on what? What economic data can you present that backs up this claim?
@heedtracker
Now that we’ve had 2 GERS reports since 2011-2012 that don’t present such a rosy picture we find people “challenging” the figures.
Usual condescending sneary unionist stuff Colin. Its like Britnats raging away at SNP for an FFA date, as in “you can give an independence day date, you can give us an FFA date too, you clowns and liars”
What is clear that a Scottish independence date is completely different from Scottish fiscal autonomy. Project Fear, BBC, you etc all shut down Scottish independence for a wee while and now you’re all monstering FFA.
Why the naked fear Colin?
Where has this come from? So I responded to your comment on GERS and now I’m somehow part of project fear!
At the recent general election George Kervan (who has spent the last few decades as an economics lecturer) was elected as the MP for East Lothian. Here’s what he said about FFA in an article on 9th May on The National:
For Scotland to accept fiscal autonomy without inbuilt UK-wide fiscal balancing would be tantamount to economic suicide.
If you want to find project fear look no further than this. Think about what he says, “Scotland cannot be fiscally autonomous without being bailed out by rUK”.
The best possible cushion against volatility in oil prices is to be an oil producer, not simply a consumer. The next best cushion is an oil fund like all the sensible oil producing nations of the world. We have neither best, nor second best. We have Westminster and the BBC, turning Scotland’s oil into pish for 40 years.
@Colin Rippey says: 12 June, 2015 at 11:17 am:
“The GERS methodology estimates what an independent Scotland would earn from oil & gas, do you accept the GERS methodology?
Are you kidding, Colin? Do you know why and by whom the GERS was invented by?
” – If not, what are your figures for how much revenue an independent Scotland would earn in revenue from oil & gas?”
Dependant upon how many installations in the Scottish Territorial Waters, (and including the several thousand Sq Mls stolen by the UK), are under maintenance or other shut downs at the time the answer is around 95% on a geographic basis of whatever the present reported Extra-Regio Territories is credited with earning.
“This is a simple question, you’ve never answered it.”
In the first place it is not a simple question as I’ve more than once explained in detail.
“You’re very keen to trot out figures for all sorts of areas but I’ve never seen your figures for this specific question. Do they differ from what GERS estimates them to be?”
There are very good, and oft stated, reasons for me not trotting out the figures, Colin. The first being that the figures can only be estimated from among the many con-tricks deliberately introduced by the Establishment with the object of obfuscating the truth. However, by looking at the UK produced figures that do exist many truths become crystal clear.
Here, as always are a few truths : –
The per capita Scottish GDP exceeds that of both the United Kingdom, (which figure also includes the Scottish per capita GDP), and that of the country of England as a whole. In plain language – each Scot contributes more towards the UK Treasury than either the UK or English residents.
The oft quoted statistic that the Scots get a higher per capita funding than others in the UK is balderdash for these obvious reasons. The UK is actually a legal bipartite union of Kingdoms, (Which is why it is named, “The United KINGDOM”. It is legally neither a country nor legally a union of four countries.
Thus the present set-up where the country of England is run my 533 people who were not elected as members of the Parliament of England but elected as members of the United Kingdom Parliament results in the Westminster Parliament becoming the de facto Parliament of the Country of England that devolves English powers to the three devolved administrations along with block Grants in order to fund their devolved functions.
So, Colin, the real World situation in regard to how the United Kingdom is funded is thus – Only England is wholly funded by the United Kingdom Government Ministries.
Thus the country of England has no Block Grant and, as the other three countries have different levels of devolved functions, their per capita funding is decided by the Barnett Formula that, of necessity, must calculate a different level of per capita funding to each devolved country as it is based mainly upon the needs to devolve funds to run the devolved functions from the UK Ministries with that devolved funding also coming from the UK Ministries. Which leaves only England funded directly from those UK Ministries.
So it is really laughable when people, like you, Colin, make claims that only we Scots are getting more than our fair share of UK funding. So here is the that truth you either do not know or that you think we Scots are too stupid to understand.
First of all the English figures are lower as England is not only 100% funded as the UK by UK Ministries but gets a great deal more by getting much extra funding by other than ministerial funding. I.e. the £4.1 billion for the New London Sewerage System that was funded, (not by the Normal DEFRA funds), but from Government Reserves. This was a double whammy for Scotland, Wales & N.I. as we all contributed towards those Government reserves but the grant did not carry Barnett Consequentials.
Next of all the UK Country that gets the highest per capita block grant is N.I as N.I. has the most devolved functions and thus the most devolved funds from UK Ministries. Scotland comes next with less devolved functions and funding than N.I. but more than Wales. England has no block grant but the basic figures used by the Barnett Formula is based upon an estimated per capita figure of the values England gets from UM Ministerial funding but, (as already explained), vastly underestimated by those extra, non-ministerial, funds that only England gets. Such as the grant to set-up, “Transport for London”; The London Cross-Rail System; The HS Rail Links; The London Olympics; The London Dome; The refurbishment of every London Rail & Bus Terminal and such as the infrastructure for the Chunnel. Note that every other UK country must finance their transport stuff from within their block Grants. For example the new Forth Crossing is 100% funded from within the Scottish Block Grant.
So there you go Colin, the GERS Figures are designed by the UK government to confuse the real issues and the so called, “Independent”, institutions such as the OBR are UK Government designed, peopled and funded. They are far from independent.
So instead of quoting us the minutiae of the complex Creative Accountancy of the United Kingdom a brief look at the figures they cannot bias tells a quote different story As does the simple fact that if Scotland had indeed been subsidised by the England we would never have been forced into a union with England in the first place.
Now, as you were demanding I quote you figures that are totally irrelevant in any case, can you deny any of the points I make above?
@Colin Ripley
Exploding the myth of a “subsidised Scotland”
link to m.youtube.com
Get real folks.
Scotland doesn’t exist in isolation in the world nor indeed should it. It needs to trade for the things it can’t or doesn’t produce for itself & that means having friends, allies & trading partners in all other countries.
Any country aspiring to independence of necessity needs to convince folks like IMF, world trading markets, financial markets etc that they are a country to be trusted & can be trusted to do business with. Ergo-Scotland has to impress whether you like it or not. It’s called operating as a small nation amongst many more ‘big fishes’ in the sea.
It isn’t about Scotland crawling to the IMF EU or anything else like that. It is just a small country going out into the world & saying this is us, this is what we want to do & why and you have nothing to fear from us.
Nicola isn’t expecting support from those institutions or countries indeed she would be wrong if she did. It would be unthinkable for any country, world institution, EU etc to publicly say anything as that would be seen as interfering in another country& they’d be pilloried for it & quite rightly so.
Nicola is putting Scotland onto the international stage & basically saying this is us & we are just as it says on the tin-a small nation with a responsible government looking outwards rather than being like rUk isolationist & looking inwards.
This is an eminently sensible move. Imagine how countries outside UK feel/think when Scotland is mentioned. Every day in the press, we have a plethora of scary Scotland stories.We can debunk many of those here but many won’t know anything about a website in Scotland & why would they?
Those press stories are picked up by foreign news agencies & transmitted to all corners of the earth so the Scottish Government has to fly the flag for Scotland & ‘normalise’ the impressions conveyed by Scots representatives.
Like you they have all been fed the Scotland & SNP Bad stories but they have no reason to disbelieve any of it. Now Nicola et al are going about their business of correcting world opinion. You may not like it but tough-it has to be done if you want independence.
Scotland is signalling its intentions to join the ranks of the independent nations so get used to it.
And I say this as a supporter of independence 🙂
So I disagree with you on something and your mindset is that I must have an opposite view to everything you believe in yes? You have come to this conclusion because of what? I have challenged the view that Scotland is missing out on whisky export duty that doesn’t exist. Now because of this
Colin Rippey
I believe in WMDs and protecting paedophiles. Quite a leap you’ve made eh?
No. It was quite a logical leap, IMO, as you appear to be following the ‘arguments’ put forwards by Better Together, a.k.a. “Project Fear”. I was not suggesting this was your position, merely asking for your confirmation, or otherwise. Still waiting.
The rest, well it’s all pie in the sky, as Project Fear got their No vote. Let’s move forwards constructively, shall we?
Just about to head out, so we can continue this evening, if convienient.
The income from Land ownership in Scotland would be a useful contribution!
link to caledonia.org.uk
Colin Rippey
This is where you lose me. If iScotland wanted to keep using the £ (and let’s say that the rUK threat of not having a currency union was a bluff and iScotland and rUK were in a currency union) then iScotland would be faced with borrowing constraints laid down by the currency union they were in.
Who owns Sterling? Certainly not England.
You honestly couldn’t make this up. Orwell’s political ideology is alive and well.
Problem is …half of the Scottish people are very much aware of what is going on!
Ah well …roll on the EU Referendum, for that will be the key battleground. However, this time, we hold the key ace. Just as they used the ‘Economic Case’ against us in the Referendum, we will use that same case against them this time round. The argument of being in Europe will destroy the GB Union once and for all, for they can’t even use that against us!
In fact, if you actually think about it, this is the Referendum in mirror format …only this time, we are the side who will argue the Economic Case, be the side who guarantees Europe, and point out that Big Business WON’T be leaving Scotland should we guarantee our place in the EU.
Once the electorate realises that safety in their assets, jobs and basically the future lies with Europe, then the Union will truly end as people clamour for the Union to be dissolved should the rUK vote to leave Europe.
Well well well, it turns out John Swinney was at Charles Kennedy’s funeral, but sign of him on BBC Scotland there was not, they managed to spot Gordon Brown the most camera shy (ex) politician in the western world, who has an aversion to cameras akin to the late Howard Hughes, but they could not see the representative of her majesties Government in Scotland the (current) deputy First Minister,
Who the fuck knew?
certainly not Laura (dimples) Bicker!
@Colin Rippey says: 11 June, 2015 at 11:44 pm:
“How much oil & gas revenue does the UK commandeere? What is the figure?”
I realise, Colin, that you are probably the most recent version of the UK funded Trolls we have had as regular visitors for some time now but will answer you this one.
As the entire revenues from the off-shore oil & gas is classed as from, “Extra Regio Territories”, no matter whether they come from the internationally recognised, (International Law of the Seas), English Legal jurisdiction or from the internationally recognised Scottish Jurisdiction the UK Government commandeers them as coming from Extra Regio Territory.
Now, unless you do your own proper research first, just stop wasting our collective time with these spurious points for you know, as well as I do, that if Scots were actually being subsidised by England, or even if we were just getting our fair share, we would have been thrown out of your evil Union hundreds of years ago.
Colin Rippey, pretty weak come backs there Colin.
You decided that YES voters don’t know how Scots whisky’s taxed, so NO FFA but when asked direct queries like, why not give Scotland control of Scots oil industry, as we’re now being threatened that it’s all worthless, all you can do is say nothing at all.
Funny that Colin. You’re all the same though.
PS Colin, you’re probably picking up stuff like whisky duty from that very smeary/sneary/condescending Scottish tory boy blog chocablog. His real problem is only blogging half his stories. Keep it mind.
i agree FFA will not be given to do so would show that westminster has mismanaged the Sottish revenue for decades,yes it will lead to independence once the real Scottish figures are produced and not the made up ones from westminster with their creative accountancy,this is why FFA as most people understand it will not happen.
We will get what they are offering and that is it and they will have the cheek to say its the most devolved parliament in the world and that they gave us everything we asked for but as usual the Scots want more,perpetuating the usual lie to Scotland mantra.
I worry about FFA not because i dont like the idea but because it will get kicked around westminster and will never see the light of day,as i said before its a delay tactic and one they can use to beat up the SNP because most people dont have a clue that we can not take FFA it has to be given.
Screw the lot of them come on Nicola indyref2 lets get out of this mad house this is an official request from a concerned Scottish citizen,well you did say it was up to us when the next indyref is ,consider yourself notified i want it on the SNP manifesto 2016 or i might just vote for Labour again (only kidding about the labour bit)