Depending on which parts of the media you were reading yesterday and this morning, the economic case for independence was either “shattered” (the Herald), “demolished” (the Spectator), “shredded” (Daily Record), “smashed to smithereens” (Willie Rennie, bless) or any number of other apocalyptic metaphors for total destruction, by a 1% fall in Scottish revenues resulting from a steep drop in oil prices which led to a notional Scottish budget deficit that by some measures was as high as 10% of GDP.
We must assume, then, that the economic case for the UK being an independent nation was rendered unto ruins in 2009-10, when its deficit exceeded 11% of GDP.
Economics: The art of explaining why all of your models fail to accurately predict either the future or the past.
It’s the time of year again when everyone glances at the first page of a dense booklet of complex economic data and immediately starts using it to make wild forecasts and proclamations despite the long-known problems with doing so.
So it’s also, once again, time to try looking a little further to tease out some details that others might have – let’s be generous here – accidentally missed.
(The GERS figures actually showed Scotland’s revenues in 2014/15 dropping by ONE PERCENT as a result of the oil price collapse. Non-oil revenues were UP by 3.2%.)
This year’s GERS figures will be published today, purporting to illustrate the financial relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK. With oil revenues down, they’ll undoubtedly provoke an orgasmic explosion of glee among Unionists crowing about “black holes” and how Scotland is too wee, too poor and too stupid to survive alone.
We’ve already run an extremely detailed explanation of all the flaws and booby-traps in GERS, but of course we’re a pro-independence website and we would say that. So instead we’ll direct you to someone who’s very much NOT on our side.
This week Scottish Labour have been attacking the SNP’s rather timid plans for the reform of Council Tax, which is an entirely fair and legitimate opposition pursuit.
But as is their wont, Kezia Dugdale’s branch office just can’t help overplaying their hand and doing it in a highly dishonest way.
An alert reader just found this. It’s quite something.
We especially liked this bit:
“The growing practice of the socialist government is to take decisions vitally affecting Scotland in Whitehall… this is a process which we have every intention of setting in direct reverse.”
We thought you might like to see this snippet from a recent edition of the BBC News channel’s newspapers round-up, spotted by an alert reader.
We particularly enjoy the obviousness with which presenter Martine Croxall is being fed random titles into her earpiece by a panicking producer in response to freelancer stringer Matthew Green’s unexpected observation.
Weirdly, right after seeing this earlier this afternoon, we sat down to watch an episode of The Professionals on ITV4, which contained what seemed a rather apt segment.
We don’t think it’s a younger Iain Martin of the Telegraph (accompanied by colleagues Alan Cochrane and Tom Gallagher), but don’t make us swear to it.
Mark Beggan on Response Level Upgrade: “Northcode says: 12 June, 2026 at 10:07 pm Just think… after independence Scotland’s political parties will have to actually be…” Jun 13, 00:24
Mark Beggan on Response Level Upgrade: “He is just about to find out how terrible the world really is. “You’re my little puppy dog now boy.…” Jun 13, 00:16
Onlooker on Response Level Upgrade: “Northcode, both Scotland and England are owned by America.” Jun 12, 23:49
Aidan on Wider Than A Mile: “It’s not that sovereignty doesn’t exist Xaracen, or that’s it’s not an important concept. It’s that the way you are…” Jun 12, 22:28
Northcode on Response Level Upgrade: “Just think… after independence Scotland’s political parties will have to actually be Scottish.” Jun 12, 22:07
xaracen on Wider Than A Mile: “Your attempt to replace sovereignty with statehood fails because Scotland’s people were and are sovereign under Scotland’s still extant constitution,…” Jun 12, 21:51
Northcode on Response Level Upgrade: ““Seriously, Northy? England?” It doesn’t matter who or what the Scots vote for in England’s Scottish colony. Scotland is owned…” Jun 12, 21:43
Hatey McHateface on Response Level Upgrade: “It’s a simple enough question, Alf, who will be celebrating this time next week? I understand your sunk costs are…” Jun 12, 21:15
Hatey McHateface on Wider Than A Mile: “I have a dream, xaracen. It is that one day, quite soon, you will devote your energies to something useful…” Jun 12, 21:01
Alf Baird on Response Level Upgrade: “Postcolonial theory predicts that a national party that has been co-opted by colonialism’ disintegrates.” Jun 12, 20:52
Hatey McHateface on Wider Than A Mile: “It’s under 16 stones, Mark. Healthy, active people with lives are the ones that will be banned. Lard asses with…” Jun 12, 20:50
Southernbystander on Wider Than A Mile: “Universities are not taking the piss. Scots can apply and do a degree if qualified. There is no shortage of…” Jun 12, 20:49
Aidan on Wider Than A Mile: “The term “sovereignty” doesn’t mean anything in the way you are using it. As a matter of constitutional law, the…” Jun 12, 20:48
Hatey McHateface on Response Level Upgrade: “Seriously, Northy? England? You’re coming on here to claim that Scottish voters are voting for England? Crivens, help ma boab.” Jun 12, 20:41
Hatey McHateface on Response Level Upgrade: “The boy who hit the policewoman with a sledgehammer and then tried to use his ADHD or somesuch to claim…” Jun 12, 20:36
Northcode on Response Level Upgrade: ““Who does Fanon predict will win the by elections next week?” England!” Jun 12, 20:18
xaracen on Wider Than A Mile: “But it absolutely would be required by default, Aidan! It matters not at all how unusual or novel that arrangement…” Jun 12, 20:14
Hatey McHateface on Response Level Upgrade: “Wondrous times. The world’s first trillionaire walks the earth. Serious money too, Uncle Sam’s greenbacks. None of your BRICS shite.…” Jun 12, 20:01
Hatey McHateface on Response Level Upgrade: “The true worth of any theory lies in its predictive power. Who does Fanon predict will win the by elections…” Jun 12, 19:18
Hatey McHateface on Wider Than A Mile: “Great post, Northy. But, assuming you’re not just making up words again, you haven’t explained how to pronounce the ‘?’…” Jun 12, 19:11
Skip_NC on Response Level Upgrade: “Dan, I have lived in the USA for almost 25 years so I am not up to date on disabled…” Jun 12, 19:00
Alf Baird on Response Level Upgrade: “Robin assumes Scots exist in a ‘normal’ political state where ‘honour’ and ‘democracy’ are the norm, and public inquiries will…” Jun 12, 18:52
Dan on Response Level Upgrade: “Is there a distinction in law that toilets for the disabled are only to be used by those with a…” Jun 12, 18:32
James Che on Wider Than A Mile: “If only one of the two parliaments to the 1707 treaty is dissolved that were to create the united kingdom…” Jun 12, 18:11
Cynicus on Response Level Upgrade: “I really hope that more courteous response is not as good as it gets. Unfortunately, I think Robin McAlpine is…” Jun 12, 17:52
Skip_NC on Response Level Upgrade: “Disabled toilets exist so that those who need to use them have the same opportunities in life as any other…” Jun 12, 17:49
James Che on Wider Than A Mile: “Aiden, That may have been their intention, however after dissolving the Scottish parliament in the 1700s and then dissolving the…” Jun 12, 17:45
crisiscult on Response Level Upgrade: “Becoming more and more rare, but great to see there are still folk out there like Roddie D. and that…” Jun 12, 17:26
David Blake on Response Level Upgrade: “Trying to reconcile their earlier reply, Swinnet’s admission and the statement they had been advised.” There would be no further…” Jun 12, 17:09
