Economics: The art of explaining why all of your models fail to accurately predict either the future or the past.
It’s the time of year again when everyone glances at the first page of a dense booklet of complex economic data and immediately starts using it to make wild forecasts and proclamations despite the long-known problems with doing so.
So it’s also, once again, time to try looking a little further to tease out some details that others might have – let’s be generous here – accidentally missed.
(The GERS figures actually showed Scotland’s revenues in 2014/15 dropping by ONE PERCENT as a result of the oil price collapse. Non-oil revenues were UP by 3.2%.)
This year’s GERS figures will be published today, purporting to illustrate the financial relationship between Scotland and the rest of the UK. With oil revenues down, they’ll undoubtedly provoke an orgasmic explosion of glee among Unionists crowing about “black holes” and how Scotland is too wee, too poor and too stupid to survive alone.
We’ve already run an extremely detailed explanation of all the flaws and booby-traps in GERS, but of course we’re a pro-independence website and we would say that. So instead we’ll direct you to someone who’s very much NOT on our side.
This week Scottish Labour have been attacking the SNP’s rather timid plans for the reform of Council Tax, which is an entirely fair and legitimate opposition pursuit.
But as is their wont, Kezia Dugdale’s branch office just can’t help overplaying their hand and doing it in a highly dishonest way.
An alert reader just found this. It’s quite something.
We especially liked this bit:
“The growing practice of the socialist government is to take decisions vitally affecting Scotland in Whitehall… this is a process which we have every intention of setting in direct reverse.”
We thought you might like to see this snippet from a recent edition of the BBC News channel’s newspapers round-up, spotted by an alert reader.
We particularly enjoy the obviousness with which presenter Martine Croxall is being fed random titles into her earpiece by a panicking producer in response to freelancer stringer Matthew Green’s unexpected observation.
Weirdly, right after seeing this earlier this afternoon, we sat down to watch an episode of The Professionals on ITV4, which contained what seemed a rather apt segment.
We don’t think it’s a younger Iain Martin of the Telegraph (accompanied by colleagues Alan Cochrane and Tom Gallagher), but don’t make us swear to it.
As we’ve explored many times on Wings, one of the many reasons you should never trust a newspaper’s headline is that even the ones that are technically true can be painting a highly (and deliberately) misleading picture.
For example, more than two years ago we pointed to a Scotsman story that blared “A THIRD OF SCOTS WOULD BACK EXIT FROM EU”, which is a rather curious spin to put on a poll which found a 13-point margin for staying in the EU.
A paper particularly fond of misusing stats in this way is the Daily Mail.
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Frank Gillougley on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “I remember now, the apparatchick’s name was a Valerie. Two legs bad, four legs good kinda person. Back on topic…” Apr 12, 22:53
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Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “I’m no fan of the EU but fair play to them. poot is down one apologist tonight and that’s a…” Apr 12, 22:26
Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “90 billion Euros for our fighting friends in the east have just been unlocked as Orban is consigned to history’s…” Apr 12, 22:11
Geri on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “The EU was always going to get rid of him, by hook or by crook. He just wasn’t playing ball…” Apr 12, 22:00
Frank Gillougley on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “Meanwhile, back at the ranch, here in sunny Hungary, Orbán concedes and Tisza will pass the 2/3rds majority needed to…” Apr 12, 21:42
Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: ““There’s a very good reason the whole world hasn’t joined in with this madness” Sure, feart of the followers of…” Apr 12, 21:40
Geri on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “LOL! I asked myself that same question when it comes to UK elections & Brexshit referendum. Why does Pam fae…” Apr 12, 21:28
Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: ““the Greens 11 seats” Was that before or after the Green quine announced that a Green Scotland will dig deep…” Apr 12, 21:22
Geri on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “First off – let’s remind the group these are war crims. An unjust & illegal act of aggression. There’s a…” Apr 12, 21:20
Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: ““The tech Mafia will make their own version of obedient human” Truly it is as if you are completely unaware…” Apr 12, 21:15
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Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “Oh dear, Geri, you’ve just provided two reasons for them to disappear you. The first is you’ve gone public. Doh!…” Apr 12, 21:04
Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “Then again, “Rt Hon. Lord Barony” may simply be cultural misappropriation by somebody of Caribbean or Indian heritage whose parents…” Apr 12, 20:53
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Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: ““Operation “Cutting your nose to spite your face””. I don’t see that. Blockading the towel heids exports in makes perfect…” Apr 12, 20:45
Hatey McHateface on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: ““should normally protect the sovereignty of the indigenous people, including those living abroad” Why should anybody care about the sovereignty…” Apr 12, 20:33
Alf Baird on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: ““the occupation of ALL of our top cultural, heritage, environmental, educational, etc. positions” Indeed, an Anglo cultural hegemony and hence…” Apr 12, 19:01
Lorncal on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “The thing is, Heaver, that we just do not know for certain (although we can guess) why this is happening.…” Apr 12, 17:08
Lorncal on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “The SNP has overseen a greater importation of people into our cultural and heritage, environmental and other nationally-important organizations than…” Apr 12, 16:48
Mark Beggan on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “‘We send warships’ Is that right Vice admiral Loch and Load.” Apr 12, 16:15
Young Lochinvar on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “Breaking! Von Trumphausen is going to block the Strait of Hormuz!! Operation “Cutting your nose to spite your face”.. So…” Apr 12, 15:52
Alf Baird on Do You Believe In The Westwood?: “A colonized people are ‘bystanders’in all regards, including when it comes to appointing a meritocratic elite from elsewhere to lead…” Apr 12, 15:16
