Wings Over Scotland

He’s not our man in the contest, but a free bit of advice for Humza Yousaf anyway.

When just about everyone with eyes and a brain in their head thinks the vote’s being rigged in your favour, and there’s tangible evidence of its dodginess, and the party’s track record in this area is in fact somewhat less than immaculate, then “just shut up and let it happen” is a really, really bad response.

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Tonight’s debate on Sky News between the three SNP leadership candidates was yet another inconclusive low-scoring draw, with each contender taking a few hits (almost all from host Beth Rigby) and also landing the odd blow on each other.

The most notable of the latter was probably when Ash Regan gave Humza Yousaf a rather uncomfortable time over his claiming credit for the Queensferry Crossing when he was Transport Secretary.

As well as frantically trying to deflect by pretending Regan had attacked the SNP’s record on the project in general, Yousaf insisted that he’d played a major role in the bridge’s delivery. So let’s just check the timeline.

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The Unionist media in Scotland (ie all of the media in Scotland) usually keeps up a pretty united front when it comes to the subjects of independence or the SNP. So it’s been fascinating in these last couple of weeks to see a genuine schism develop between them on the subject of the party’s leadership election.

(For the avoidance of doubt, we do not include Holyrood Magazine, whose splendid front cover image that is, in “the Unionist media”.)

Right back at the start of the contest we highlighted The Times’ full-on love-in for Kate Forbes, but most of the Scottish press has now made their preferences clear. And you’ll never guess who they really, really DON’T want to be the next First Minister.

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Since you’d barely know that Ash Regan existed from reading or watching the Scottish media, here’s a chance to get to know her a little bit better before voting opens in the SNP leadership election tomorrow.

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We’ve been telling you for quite some time now that after eight wasted years of doing absolutely nothing with endless mandates, the SNP establishment want to back away from the party’s defining goal of Scottish independence and settle in for some lovely cosy lifelong careers at Westminster and in the devolved Holyrood, with well-paid staffer jobs for all their pals, followed by tidy £50,000-a-year pensions.

Maybe some of you didn’t believe us.

Maybe you could have another think about it.

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In fairness, you can’t really accuse them of hiding it any more.

The faint hearts and pension-seekers of the SNP think that their time has come – the moment when the party’s pursuit of independence can be quietly downgraded to a vague long-term aspiration that will ensure their seats on the gravy train for decades.

Starting at noon tomorrow is your very last chance to stop them.

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There is growing domestic and international attention on my plan to use the ballot box to decide whether Scotland becomes an independent country.

I have the only plan that has historic precedent, can be delivered legally by Scotland alone, moves us beyond the referendum stalemate, and today I can confirm that this plan is supported by 93% of SNP voters and 52% of Scottish voters.

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While idly browsing Twitter this morning, we made a startling discovery triggered by the SNP leadership election, and it was this: nobody in Scotland really knows what the nation’s law on abortion is.

It was prompted by these two tweets, both of which appear to be true:

The thing they agree on is that Humza Yousaf has just declared that he wants to change the law around abortion so that women can abort babies in Scotland solely on the grounds that they don’t like which sex they are. And that seems like something that should probably be bigger news.

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Wings has backed Ash Regan in the SNP leadership election, because she’s the only one with an actual plan for independence and the only one who doesn’t immediately start talking about something else if you bring the subject up.

But until this morning we’d regarded Kate Forbes as a decent consolation prize – no plan for indy, but at least someone who’d lead to the withdrawal of the toxic Scottish Greens from government and probably a mass exodus of the SNP’s Twitler Youth, leaving the party in a better place to rebuild for the future.

And after her disappointing chickening-out from the vote on the Gender Recognition Reform bill, we’d been impressed at the fortitude she’d shown by carrying on in the contest after the (justifiable) furore around her views on abortion and equal marriage, and her combative showing in Tuesday night’s STV debate.

But this footage from last night’s hustings in Johnstone is incredibly disturbing.

Erin Lux, the co-convener of the extremist SNP affiliate Out For Independence, is the ultra-woke Canadian activist who tried to have Forbes kicked out of the election for “transphobia” almost as soon as she’d declared her candidacy.

OFI, whose membership is measured in dozens, has a disproportionate influence on policy but a microscopic percentage of votes in the election. The chances of any of its members ever voting for Kate Forbes under any circumstances are less than nil. She could have waded into the crowd and decapitated Lux with a chainsaw for all the difference it would have made to the number of votes she’s going to get from OFI.

But Forbes still folded like a deckchair in a hurricane.

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The great unknown in the SNP leadership contest is an extremely significant one: who are the voters? Nobody but Peter Murrell really knows how many members the party has, but almost nobody believes the claimed number of over 100,000. (Our guess, based on pretty much nothing but a gut feeling, is 75,000 plus or minus 5000.)

But more to the point, nobody knows who they are. The average member age in most political parties is over 50, and according to figures published in 2019, more than 80% of SNP members are over 40, with half of those being over 60. There’s also an almost 3:2 bias in favour of men.

So the sample on Newsnight last night was pretty representative.

And the segment illustrated the difficulty in predicting the result of the contest.

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Humza Yousaf will not be the next First Minister of Scotland. We’re calling it now. His trainwreck of a performance on last night’s leadership election debate on STV dealt a blow to his chances that we can’t see him recovering from, and the SNP establishment is now under such intense scrutiny over the electoral process that the chances of a fix being orchestrated by Peter Murrell are receding fast.

In the debate Yousaf declared that Nicola Sturgeon was the best politician in the UK, that he wasn’t as good as her, and that she’d failed to find a successful strategy for independence and therefore he couldn’t either.

So, um, that’s that, we suppose.

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