The Scottish media has today leapt all over the front-page lead story from yesterday’s Sunday Times, in which “top economist” Douglas McWilliams of right-wing thinktank the Centre for Economics and Business Research made an apocalyptic prediction of a huge deficit turning an independent Scotland into “a Third World country”.
The Express’ customarily restrained coverage is pretty typical.
We wondered if Mr McWilliams used to have a more optimistic view.
The one great pillar of the argument against Scottish independence – greater than not being allowed into the EU, greater than being forced to barter with beads and potatoes because we wouldn’t have a currency, greater than losing Doctor Who or having the Chinese take their pandas back – is the economy.
Scotland is far too wee and too poor to be independent, they say – while indignantly denying that they’re saying it – because we only survive now thanks to a vast bailout every year from the rest of the UK, by which they in fact mean England. (Because it’s sure as heck not coming from Wales or Northern Ireland, which by any measure you care to choose are far poorer than Scotland.)
The name and size of this bailout vary wildly. Sometimes it’s a “deficit”, sometimes it’s a “black hole”, sometimes it’s a “fiscal transfer”, and it can be £8bn, £9bn, £10bn, £15bn, £28bn, £32bn or any other figure up to a hundred and eleventy thousand million bajillion squillion depending on who you’re talking to.
(The last one’s probably either David Coburn or Jackie Baillie.)
And while there are a dozen separate and compelling reasons why that argument is complete rubbish, none of them have any traction with diehard Unionists determined to believe that one of the richest and most blessed nations on Earth couldn’t possibly manage its own affairs like, say, Latvia or Ireland or Kuwait or Slovakia can.
But it turns out there IS a – surprisingly simple – way to get Unionists to categorically deny that England subsidises Scotland. You just have to ask them.
The votes for “God Save The Queen” being driven by Tories, English-born residents and supporters of a particular football club probably won’t come as the biggest shock in the world to anyone.
(Alert viewers will of course have noticed that due to MI5 INTERFERENCE in the poll, there were actually two votes for Hoots Mon, which have been suspiciously rounded down to one. We are conducting an investigation, by which we mean brutal purge.)
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson managed to make a bit of a balloon of herself earlier this month when she contrived to get THREE fairly key facts wrong in a single tweet about a poll on a second independence referendum.
(We’re not sure who the guy in the picture with her is. Probably a colleague.)
We suspected the reason she’d so badly misunderstood the data was that there were two options for “have another indyref in the next two years” and only one for “don’t have another indyref”, so when we were putting our latest poll together we thought we’d try to make it easier for her by having an equal number on both sides.
There’s a nice piece in today’s Scottish Sun about one of the findings of our newest Panelbase poll, on who was Scotland’s all-time best First Minister.
We thought you’d want a more detailed look at the data behind it.
There were no surprises in our latest Panelbase poll with regard to the independence question, at least not in terms of the headline figures – in line with a flurry of recent polls they came out at Yes 46% No 54%, with 2016’s Brexit vote seemingly having caused almost equal numbers of people to change sides since 2014.
But as readers will know, we usually like to probe a little bit deeper into the thoughts of our respondents than other media do, so we asked a few more questions on the subject. And the results of that were just plain weird.
When we commissioned our latest opinion poll from Panelbase, we were aware that there’d been a lot of polls recently about independence and Brexit/the EU and even Westminster voting intentions, but surprisingly few on the next thing that Scots will actually go to polling stations for – the council elections in May.
That’s odd because it’s a pretty significant vote, and could lead to some fairly seismic changes in how the country is governed. Despite losing the popular vote for the first time in 2012, Labour are still the dominant force in Scotland’s town/city halls, running almost twice as many of the country’s 32 local authorities (either in sole control or in coalition/minority administrations) as the SNP – 16 to nine.
Depending on the outcome in May, the Nats could either secure a grip on all levels of Scottish elected politics for the first time ever, or a Tory alliance with Labour as junior partners could keep most councils Unionist – something which could have all sorts of wider ramifications beyond local services. (That’s an article for another day.)
Mark Beggan on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “Well done Harry Kane. Well done England. English team singing Wonderwall with the fans. Good luck in Mexico.” Jul 2, 01:27
Young Lochinvar on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “C That’s a genuinely interesting post. Can you elaborate as it’s peeked my interest, particularly the Congo crisis stuff? Thanks…” Jul 2, 00:53
Alf Baird on The Fast Track: “The empire’s doublethink surely lives on, in colonial Scotland.” Jul 2, 00:35
Confused on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “these cunts in the vids, you can summarise it down to an old comedy phrase : “badges … badges! ……” Jul 1, 22:57
cirsium on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “thanks for providing a transcript of the interview Rev. It is easier to deal with the “repetitive evasiveness” (AlMac) by…” Jul 1, 22:02
Karen on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “Some possibilities: a) Ach, it’s just indy supporting folks’ money b) a top COPFS person dropped the Clerkin ball,so chuckled…” Jul 1, 21:48
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on The Fast Track: “GCSE SPANISH GUIDE FOISTS TRANS IDEOLOGY PROPAGANDA ON TEENS One of the largest exam boards in England and Wales has…” Jul 1, 21:34
McDuff on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “The thing is rev will the police and Crown Office ever be put in a position where they would be…” Jul 1, 21:20
Hatey McHateface on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “No Mexico, no party! MSM reporting 3, maybe 4, dead celebrating their win over Ecuador. With such dedication, they deserve…” Jul 1, 19:58
Hatey McHateface on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “Seth MacFarlane is superb training for identifying and puncturing pretentious old farts.” Jul 1, 19:34
Hatey McHateface on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “Dunno Connie. I migrated to CD’s back in the day, and now even they are laughed to scorn. It’s all…” Jul 1, 19:27
Hatey McHateface on The Fast Track: “Thanks for clearing that up, Alf. “The root of colonialism is fascism” (Cesaire) “Helps us locate the origins of fascism…” Jul 1, 19:24
Connie Davidson on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “Just where do you come in Hatey? And where do you get off? Is there some criminality involved here, of…” Jul 1, 18:24
Connie Davidson on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “No. Not just you. This is the state we are in. The “United Kingdom” and “the Crown” are imposed on…” Jul 1, 18:21
Jay on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “Campbell clansman, please name the party or parties to whom you refer by your first word “they” in your comment.…” Jul 1, 18:13
100%Yes on ACC Houston, We Have A Problem: “When I watched the video John Logue I got the impression he was thinking a lot on how to answer…” Jul 1, 17:47
Jack Thomson on ACC Houston, We Have A Problem: “There are also huge questions re potential unrecorded income. This doesn’t seem to have been addressed. The Manchester auditors qualified…” Jul 1, 16:46
Alf Baird on The Fast Track: “We should not confuse nationalism with fascist-imperialism. The imperial state tendency has been to portray Nazism as ‘nationalism’, which it…” Jul 1, 16:17
Cynicus on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “AlMac says: 1 July, 2026 at 12:41 pm “……the 75-minute video is starting to look attractive when faced with 8000…” Jul 1, 15:59
Insider on The Fast Track: “Alf, Since you’ve made a complete fool of yourself trying to quote Orwell….how about trying Einstein next ? “Nationalism is…” Jul 1, 15:52
robertkknight on ACC Houston, We Have A Problem: ““ACC Houston, We Have Eh Problem” surely? Waiting staff in restaurants must love him…” Jul 1, 15:40
Cynicus on ACC Houston, We Have A Problem: “Incidentally, Peter Bell lavishly praises the Rev. in his piece, “ Solid Fog”, a few days ago. He is excoriated…” Jul 1, 15:13
sarah on ACC Houston, We Have A Problem: “I meant to say that the title gave me a chuckle. I daresay they are enjoying it at Police Scotland…” Jul 1, 15:10
lothianlad on ACC Houston, We Have A Problem: “Honestly STU, Your dilligence must be making them really nervous. Well done for your persistance.” Jul 1, 15:00
Captain Caveman on The Fast Track: “@Alf “Orwell was around slightly before postcolonial theory had really developed” Good grief, first you’re name dropping Orwell left, right…” Jul 1, 14:59
