Wings Over Scotland

Not 36 hours after a campaign which focused relentlessly on the idea that a minority Labour government propped up by the SNP and the Liberal Democrats would be an unconscionable democratic outrage, the Prime Minister is as we write en route to 10 Downing Street to inform the Queen of her intention, despite having lost 13 seats and her majority, to form a minority government propped up by the most extremist party in the UK Parliament.

The DUP opposes equal marriage, opposes basic abortion rights, rejects the concept of evolution, wants the death penalty back and intends to demand as part of its price a rock-hard Brexit, including a hard border with Ireland that pretty much everyone on all sides agrees risks the return of widespread terrorist violence to the province.

(NB The party actually says that it doesn’t want a hard Brexit, but there’s no possible way that can be done without NI having special status, which the DUP flatly opposes.)

But what would have been “the worst crisis since abdication” had it been the SNP and Labour is apparently all just tickety-boo if it’s the DUP and Tories.

So that’s going to be fun for the next wee while.

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As we write this at just gone 4am, there are 140 seats still to declare. But there are some things we can say already.

1. The SNP have won the election in Scotland. They currently have 32 seats with a handful to declare, so they know that they’ll have more than the three Unionist parties put together. Their total, whatever it is, will be the second-highest in the party’s history, streets ahead of the previous second-best of 11.

2. Labour will be crowing about getting more seats than anyone expected – it’s looking like six – but in fact they’ve barely clung on to their 2015 vote share and most were won by tiny majorities of under 1000. Jeremy Corbyn has, however, largely won back the votes that Kezia Dugdale – who bitterly opposed his leadership – lost in the two years since then.

3. At this stage it seems inconceivable that Theresa May can stay on as Prime Minister. It appears certain that she’s lost her majority in an election where she was at one point expected to have one of more than 200 seats.

4. Jeremy Corbyn, however, has no chance of forming a government without SNP votes. So despite losing 20-odd seats, the SNP may well find themselves in a more powerful position than they were before the election was called.

5. Corbyn has also repeatedly stated that he won’t block a second independence referendum. Independence has now for some time been more popular than the SNP in polls, and if Corbyn does grant a Section 30 order in return for the SNP putting him into power – giving them control of the timing inside a four-year window – the game is very much on.

6. The SNP will now have to pursue that referendum with more urgency, because they can no longer be at all certain of securing a pro-independence majority at the next Holyrood election in 2021. The long grass is no longer an option.

7. It looks highly possible that Labour and Lib Dem tactical votes for Tories in Scottish seats made the difference between the Tories being able to assemble a majority with DUP support and not.

8. Nevertheless, the Tories have lost their majority at Westminster while the SNP have achieved a majority of Scottish seats, although the Tories got a bigger UK vote share than the SNP’s Scottish one. The debate about “mandates” just got a lot more complicated.

9. What happens with Brexit now is absolutely anyone’s guess.

10. A second general election this year is a very real possibility. Sob.

The next few days should be fun.

There was a minor kerfuffle on the STV leaders debate tonight.

The revelation that Kezia Dugdale may once have changed her mind about a second referendum on independence won’t have come as a particularly great shock to Wings readers, who just a week ago read a detailed account of the party’s countless U-turns and contradictions on the issue.

And what was notable was that Dugdale didn’t deny it. To anyone’s face, at least.

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Disclaimer first: as we always say in situations like this, BOOKMAKERS’ ODDS ARE NOT PREDICTIONS. They’re based in significant part on the level of wagers placed, which means that you could affect the odds simply by making a large bet, which of course wouldn’t actually change the likelihood of a particular candidate winning.

So with that proviso, we present the following information purely for interest.

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This is how today’s BBC News summed up (fairly accurately) the two main themes of last night’s Question Time special with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn:

May managed to largely get away with her party’s abysmal track record of brutal cuts and austerity, while Corbyn was made very uncomfortable by a howling mob of angry, terrifyingly bloodthirsty old white men over Labour’s policy on Trident.

And while Corbyn’s position on the nuclear deterrent is idiotic and makes him an easy target for opponents, the main reason for the differing outcomes is language.

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…that will satisfy the Unionist parties. Last night Ruth Davidson told STV viewers that even getting more than 50% of the vote in a general election wouldn’t give the SNP a mandate to pursue their manifesto policies.

She was echoing the words of Kezia Dugdale just over a year ago:

So that’s clear. Davidson has reversed her previous view. There is now no peaceful democratic avenue by which the people of Scotland could express the wish for a second referendum which the two main Unionist parties would accept. They have EXPLICITLY said, in full public view, that they would reject any democratic mandate.

And that’s frightening.

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“It couldn’t be clearer than that” was Kezia Dugdale’s assertion tonight on the subject of whether a Labour UK government would block a second independence referendum, during her “Ask The Leader” interview with the BBC’s Glenn Campbell.

She’d insisted explicitly several times that a Jeremy Corbyn administration WOULD block a new indyref, even after being shown a video clip of Corbyn from earlier in the day saying he wouldn’t, and she repeatedly urged readers not to listen to the party’s leader and to instead go and look at the Labour manifesto.

So we did.

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Today’s Daily Record has a swipe at Jeremy Corbyn for, well, let’s call them “mixed messages” over a second independence referendum. It suggests his Scottish branch manager Kezia Dugdale would have “her head in her hands” over his latest comments, which is a bit rich considering Dugdale’s own history on the subject.

And since her headline boast when she took over as leader of the North British office was that people would know exactly what Labour stood for (and indeed she spent all of the weekend’s keynote Sunday Politics interview listing all the things she’d been very very clear about), we thought we’d have a recap and see how that was going.

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You want the immigrants in:

You want the immigrants out:

You want the immigrants around the same, but shaken all about:

(Good Morning Scotland, BBC Radio Scotland, 26 May 2017)
.

You do the Hokey Cokey and you turn around:

And that’s what Ruth is all about. Oy!

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(NB The media is understandably mostly occupied today with the horrific events in Manchester. But life goes on – music websites are still talking about music, football websites are still talking about football, videogames websites are still talking about videogames. Any rational observations about terrorism made here would be screamed down as making political capital from tragedy. So let’s get on with the day job.)

If you apply to go on a televised political debate and then submit a question to ask a national leader, it seems a reasonable deduction that you want that issue to be raised and discussed. If you also make it personal by describing your own circumstances, it seems logical that you’d want those circumstances to be widely publicised, and to be asked about them so you could say more and tell your story to the country.

So it’s a bit odd that Edinburgh nurse Claire Austin has suddenly gone off the radar.

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We’re not going to join in the attacks on a nurse who criticised Nicola Sturgeon during last night’s BBC election debate. While her lifestyle seems at a glance to be wildly at odds with her claim that she relied on foodbanks to survive, there are – genuinely – possible explanations for at least most of it.

Her daughter could have won a free scholarship to the £11,000-a-year George Heriot’s school. Family and friends could have paid for her five-star holidays to New York and frequent dinners in expensive restaurants. She lives in Stockbridge, which is a quite expensive area of Edinburgh – in itself the most expensive city in Scotland – where wages might not stretch as far as elsewhere.

Owning a convertible car isn’t proof that someone’s wealthy – I have one myself that’s worth less than £1000, and I also have a relative who has very little money but who nevertheless owns a horse just like Claire Austin’s daughter seemingly does. (It’s also possible to be quite poor but still own things you bought when you were less poor.)

It ill befits Yes supporters – who are happy to deploy the existence and growing use of foodbanks to justifiably attack the UK government – to complain if someone who calls the First Minister “wee Jimmy Krankie” adopts the same tactic. More to the point, we entirely agree with Ms Austin’s core view that nurses should be paid more in general, as we suspect most people do.

(And in Scotland, of course, they ARE paid more than in the rest of the UK, and under the SNP have always been given the full pay rises recommended by the independent pay board, which hasn’t been the case in England.)

But that still leaves some things hanging disquietingly in the air.

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Because in the 124-page Labour manifesto released yesterday, these 115 words are the entire amount of text devoted to Scotland:

(That’s not a fake screenshot, btw. The giant Union Jack is really there.)

So let’s take a very quick stroll through them.

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