Chinese arithmetic
With all 32 councils now having declared, the Scottish local elections are over and the SNP have won again, taking 431 seats. Last time round in 2012 they took 425.
You might think you know the difference between 431 and 425. But you don’t.
Because according to the BBC, 431 is actually seven seats FEWER than 425.
Whereas the Guardian reckon it’s 31 MORE, somehow.
Although in another article the same paper reckoned it was also 31 LESS.
So we thought we’d better check back with the BBC News channel 10 minutes later to see if we could clear up this bewildering mystery. At first it was hedging its bets:
But we quickly got the rather vague “a handful” firmed up…
…and found that 431 minus 425 is in fact -14, not six like YOU thought, you idiot.
Or at least it was for the next four minutes, when it became (minus) “more than 30”:
But we suppose that in an election where the SNP are going to be widely portrayed as having lost by getting 56% more seats than the 2nd-placed Conservatives, who are going to be portrayed as having won, a flexible approach is definitely helpful.
This must be the poorest job the BBC has done in covering local elections in Scotland since the 1960s.
The BBC telling lies, now that does surprise me.
But one must remember that BBC Scotland news is staffed by total c.unts.
Yes, yes, yes. Don’t get all detailed with numbers. That’s the problem with you ‘experts’. Just celebrate the Tank Commander’s absolutely, electrifying, stunning, overwhelming victory at coming in a long, long way behind in second place.
Glasgow’s Much Better 😉
One of the most deprived areas of the country is Ferguslie in Paisley. They voted for a tory. This is undoubtedly a sizable vote by No Surrender Ruth more than the poor suddenly realizing that tory policy is more acceptable to them. Wonder how many of these voters are rangers supporters
Can you stick up a link to 2012 results please Stu.
Indeed I heard them salivating over the Tory win down south mentioning that the council votes are normally a protest vote against the govt. funny no mention of that here.
They stood on ‘no referendum’ and lost.
I’ve just heard it on the radio that the SNP has the most seats and the most votes but the winner is the Conservatives – thank you Brian Taylor.
Apparently we have it all wrong folks, we are supposed to measure the winner by MOMENTUM!
And that is numberwang!
The best was Peter Kellner saying on the BBC that if unionist parties win a larger % of the vote in the general election, the SNP should “reconsider” #indyref2.
Anybody remember politicos saying the same of the Tories in 2015 when they brought us #Brexit on 36% of the vote?
The BBC will have attempted to convert +6 seats into Euros and computed a loss.
Shock, horror, the BBC caught lying again.
There was also an election.
Situation normal.
I think part of the problem, to be fair, is that the boundaries for a lot of Scottish wards have been redrawn since 2012, which makes a like for like comparison difficult to actually do. Even if the SNP had lost 7 seats, as the BBC is now claiming, that’s hardly a result which screams “SNP collapse”.
But the end result is that the SNP do have more council seats now than they previously did. However, they have in fact lost control of the councils they held previously, which is not great.
There’s a good chance that the SNP can go into coalition with the Greens or independents in some councils in order to run them.
But the fact of the matter is that the Tories have massively increased their presence in Scotland, almost exclusively at the expense of Labour, as Labour Unionists have switched, en masse, to the Tories. Which, of course, shows that those voters don’t actually hold Labour values at all, or, at best, that the independence question trumps their other values.
This IS a win for the Tories – maybe not in terms of winning the most seats – who before this election had nary a presence in Scotland’s councils.
Of course, despite the bleating of various political hacks, this doesn’t actually represent what might happen in a general election, since the turnout seems to have been around 43%, much lower than the turnout expected in a general election.
Also, as a side note: HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA UKIP. Even if that vote has gone to a Tory party which has slid to the right in England to hoover up those UKIP voters.
It would obviously ruin the BBC’s day to have to admit that the SNP had GAINED seats. Their NO SURRENDER script is already written and a joyous resurgent Tory Party has ordered in the bunting, scones and fizz for the post GE celebrations in June.
What do you mean 431 is a bigger number than 425? I suppose you’ll be trying to tell us next that it’s a bigger number than 276 which is the number of Tory seats.
Oh thanks Stu this makes my day. While I am disheartened by results in Perthshire I took my eye off total in Scotland and was taken in by BBC chinese arithmetic. Away to tweet them to correct it.
Must order more ‘Is that true or did you hear it on the BBC?’ badges.
On today’s result, SNP on course to win 54 out of 59 MP seats on 8 June 2017.
Only in dystopian Scotland do our ‘national’ MSM spin this as the end of all hope for another Indyref.
Aye. So it is.
The BBC don’t you just love them
Misreporting Scotland at its best I must call Kaye
If you haven’t already, can you please stop your TV licence payments.
Take it from me, after only 3 months cold turkey you’ll wonder why you wasted so much time watching the box.
Have you nothing better to spend that money on?
Look at what they do with YOUR money. Lie and cheat and obstruct the destiny and life chances your children deserve.
is that right, aye
aye
What the BBC have done is to estimate what the result would have been last time, if the boundaries were the same last time as they are now.
So they are comparing against a hypothetical result, which is fine for a bit of fun but not for the main way of reporting it.
Why did the SNP High Heid Yins not unleash the ‘Vote Til You Boak’ machine against the Tories? They really missed a trick there, all perfectly legally and above board too.
If all SNP 1st voters has placed tories last they would have minimised tory cooncillors and we may even have had a few more Greens or other indy supporting cooncillors.
Complete own goal. And why@
here is the numbers for 2012 from Wiki
link to en.wikipedia.org
Just heard on R4 that in Scotland, labour lost to tories. No mention whatsoever of SNP increasing their lead and demolishing the opposition.
Was going to post a comment about this on BBC Scotland web site which was open for comments when I looked about half-an-hour ago but guess what – they cannot load comments at this time!!!
Might that be because a lot of people are piling in and pointing out their lack of basic arithmetical skills?
I did notice a map on their site showing where the SNP had gained seats, lost seats and were unchanged. Seems to Tory heartlands stretch diagonally across the country from NE, through Aberdeen, Angus, Perth and Kinross to Argyll and Bute.
Something to ponder on come the GE.
A very quick OT (Sorry, Stu!)
Just want to say a BIG thank you to everyone who supported and donated to ayeMail’s IndyKit 2.0 crowdfunder. It was always an ambitious project, but I’m absolutely thrilled to report that including off-site donations we just cleared £9,000 for the project. That’s phenomenal considering that Theresa May announced a general election shortly after our launch and so everybody and their dog was asking for funding.
Thank you very, very much, and we will work to get the most from every single penny!
Given there’s an election battle on, we think the wise thing to do is to pause, take stock, and carefully plan how best to use the funds to stock the 150 Kits for Yes groups. The election is likely to shift the core political arguments, so we’d best see which way the wind is blowing before we commit to printing a lot of campaign materials.
We’ll keep you updated.
Thank you again!
Lindsay
Aha, I thought this fascinating so went to check numbers from the BBC website and they have the caveat:
“Seat change is based on notional 2012 results, which estimate what the results would have been then if the new boundaries had been in place.”
Which means that they can indeed make up any number they like!
The BBC don’t do truth.
Looking at that Guardian graphic, I thought that maybe they’d had the office junior on Google looking for facts. And maybe the kid stumbled across this:
link to twitter.com
@Truth
“If you haven’t already, can you please stop your TV licence payments.”
That’s precisely what I’m going to do
Anent the “Ferguslie Park result”, unless I’m very mistaken, that is Renfrewshire Council, Ward 4 Paisley Northwest. As such it was an election of four candidates from ten.
When you think like that, it’s no surprise that a Tory sneaked in by mobilising the knuckle-dragging vote. I await full count results with interest.
A Paisley man.
BBC STILL claiming 431 is -7 up from 425 !
The BBC spin has been a tad weird it has to has to be said. As far as I can see the pole position difference is +6 seats and about +3% of the vote too. These are the SNP’s best Council Elections so far.
The tactical voting unsurprisingly has shifted things around but I wonder sooner be the party with most seats.
If the sources I have seen are correct then the Tories got 22%. That will be why Prof Curtice is saying that it is not enough to break through.
Do you believe that lying toerag Ruth the Mooth, claiming the Tories put local issues first – no mention whatsoever of local issues in their bumph.
Just about everyone in my village voted for the single Tory candidate standing in our ward – for the simple reason he was the only candidate from the village; we all know the guy and we all believe he will put the village’s concerns first.
OK, he’s a Tory, but, he’s a farmer and all farmers are Tories, also, he’s a One Nation Tory, not one of the neo-Nazis at the top of his party.
I think this sort of voting was common-place across Scotland and the Tories need not think they will do well at the GE.
So, BBC summary:-7=+6.
It was quite annoying that even SNP activists I knew did not fill up the card/vote till they boaked, stopping at SNP/Green/Good Guy Indy.
I for one am secretly pleased that the likes of Shettleston/Calton/Ravenscraig/Feggie produced Tory/OO councillors. Now we can see the kind of people who vote Tory, and these guys will have to deliver for their constituents.
It’s all about polarising the choice: progressive Scotland or Endless Tory Night.
Not a huge Tolkien fan but it looks like Elves V Orcs on June the 8th.
Here’s James Kelly’s conclusion of results:
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk
As regulars will know I’m no statistician but I’m no bad at the counting, so here’s my assessment and figures on the results
SNP: Hunners and Hunners, The Winners! No question Fact!
Tories: Hunners, The losers, which for them means they won
Labour: Hardly any, Totally gubbed but they’ll have a debate
Greens: No change asb4
Lib Dems: Deid, and don’t they deserve it, but they won too
Independents: Nae idea don’t know who they stand for
History repeating itself for the umpteenth time.
Hard right getting ‘unnatural’ support from some within a disgruntled working class. Tories winning seats where previously it would have been thought impossible.
Right wing politics can be beguilingly simplistic and readily appeals to the gullible.
The real message to ordinary people should be – if you are not happy with the way Scotland is, then choose independence rather than BritNat sub fascism.
….needed a wee fix, so read Wikipedia hidtory of SNP….strength to strength we go
There is no room for complacency, we’re on track and focussed.
Roll on GE 17 and Indyref2
(although maybe gloves should come off and start telling truth that unionists are pooling their votes by voting tory, maybe a big ad with their nazi salutes, orange order parades and some of their rangers fans – just to wake people up so to speak!)
If you look on Wiki Rev (I know, I know) it gives SNP at 438 seats (I think these were by-election wins since 2012 vote taking SNP from 425 to 438 seats in Scotland). Thus 438 – 431 = -7.
BBC is not a like for like comparison. Spin as usual. SNP will probably go on to win many local by-elections in next 5 years.
Wiki: link to en.wikipedia.org
I suppose we have to call it TBC, Tory Broadcasting Council!
Alas puir liebor! Perhaps now will they realise that it is useless depending on the now diminished broad shoulders of”the branch” to get a liebor government in Westminster, when with Indy2 there could be a Tory free Scotland, no more fluffy in power etc.Now must be the time for Labour for Indy to severe and leave Kez and Co fantasizing over the precious union. The results mean that yoonianism means toryism ad nauseam!
Time to get real Labour north of the Tweed! You can only gain your objective a Tory-free government here!!
How much lower do you have to be gubbed by the yoons in your party before youvseecsense?!
Sausage fingers just said SNP lost 7.
BBC Rep Scotland interviewed guy in Shettleston re Tory gaining seat…guy said ” Aye well ah used to be Labour but they’re no doin sae well”….what they edited out was him also saying ” anyway am gonna have to go got flute practice”.
There is still no reference to STV system imposed on Scotland. If it was FPTP the SNP would walk it. Nearly every council, Holyrood and GE.
There are forecast the Tories will have a 48 majority, at Westminster. SNP 54+ seat. Pity about Labour passing through every Tory policy. IndyRef2 on the way.
Ruth Davidson tries to say the Council elections are about local services. After having plugged the vote about No to Independence. There may be trouble ahead.
BBC Scotland report was not as bad as STV. The TV Channel not the electoral system.
BBC open for comments re Scottish local elections
link to bbc.co.uk
some rubbish being talked on there
But, but, but, of course the BBC are accurate, you only have to look at their weather forecasts and the beautiful map of Scotland.
Just read in the Guardian that Labour in Wales, which did better than Labour elsewhere, are going to distance themselves from the head office.
Lessons here for Kez and Co or Labour for Indy.
One other commentator said in the msm that May’s attack on the EU was appealing to the WWII generation. The war, the war, the war!!
That is an ageing generation and one passing on to higher things as happens in the course of history.
The rush to seek solace in the yoonion and its past is a one off.
Still, the SNP won overall again.
Time to ignore the E/T BC again.
At least we have the Rev and the Dug to set the record right!!
Just heard the 4 eyed, coloured guy on Ch4 tell us that the SNP lost 7 seats. So BBC/STV not alone in broadcasting pish.
BBC – surely no one can now say they are not biased – comparing snp seats with hypothetical changes is just nonsense and shows beyond any doubt that they are not reporters of news but the blatantly biased corrupt people we know them to be. No question about it tories have taken in the right wing ukip and the red white and blue + orange. Let us just watch how these tory councillors perform and see their true colours. If I live to be a thousand I will never understand Ferguslie and Calton voting tory.
There is a Wikipedia page on Scottish Local Elections, 2012 – anyone got vote share and percentage turnout yet?
@ Proud Cybernat – so you’re saying that the BBC are comparing the 2017 vote with last week, not the 2012 vote. Are they doing that across the board? Because they didn’t do that in their report on Aberdeenshire.
What about all the other seats, including England and Wales. What are they using as the “before” vote?
Looks to me as if they are just making it up to puff up the Tory vote. Unacceptable for a public service broadcaster but par for the course in a state propaganda megaphone.
I’m hoping for the fine forensic analysis of this by Rev Stu in the next few days, once he has had time to digest the raw data.
My brain is addled with these numbers!
Seems I’m due an apology to Ch4, I didn’t allow for “notional” seats where they thought SNP should have had more & subtracted the number they first thought of.
Craig Murray’s arithmetic:
link to craigmurray.org.uk
Groovy…
@ Capella
“…so you’re saying that the BBC are comparing the 2017 vote with last week, not the 2012 vote. Are they doing that across the board? Because they didn’t do that in their report on Aberdeenshire.”
That’s what it looks like on the overall result. Of course if they are calculating this using different ‘methods’ in different parts of the country then you can probably bet your mortgage that they’re doing it in order to beef up the Tory result which, incidently, was only 14 seats from being THIRD place.
Funny how you don’t hear the Tory Broadcasting Corp mention that particular stat. The glorious Ruth only 14 seats from being THIRD in Scotland. Doesn’t quite jive with the picture they are tripping over themselves to portray.
Anyway–I LOVE this result. Everything polarising nicely and when people here in Scotland really get a good sniff of what BREXIT will really mean for them and their families, game over for the non-consensual sex clause backer, Davidson and her motley crew.
Just noticed on the Rev’s twitter a tweet from the Orange Order, so I checked to see if it was real. It is.
It says ” Congratulations to all Orangemen and friends elected to their local council today”
Seems the Tories nominated them right enough.
Nice of Reporting Scotland to headline with the day’s winners. No wait, their headline was about big Tory gains. No doubt they did well,(spit!)but come on, there was only one winner and that was the SNP. Unbelievable.
Just checked http://www.scottishelections.org.uk to see where the numbers came from. Between 2012 and last week, SNP picked up 13 extra seats due to by-elections, taking total # of seats to 438. They won 431 seats this time, more than the 425 in the 2012 election, but but it is a net loss when you include by-elections gains. Just wished the turn out was higher. I imagine you get folk with stronger political opinions turning out for local elections.
On the plus, both SNP candidates got into my ward =)
“Between 2012 and last week, SNP picked up 13 extra seats due to by-elections, taking total # of seats to 438. They won 431 seats this time, more than the 425 in the 2012 election, but but it is a net loss when you include by-elections gains.”
But the BBC page explicitly says that the figures are relative to the 2012 election.
In England/Wales it is FPTP. In Scotland it is STV. It is designed so no Party gets a majority. Imposed to stop the SNP getting an overall majority, They are still the largest party in the majority of Councils. The major ones.
and of course , if you use the correct figures of actual seats in both 2012 ans 2017, It means the S.N.P. gained 6 seats, and the Tory gain was 161 seats not 164. so a better looking result all round , by the B.B.C. and the Tories.
Highlight of my polling station duties yesterday? Taking over from Mike Dailly and then handing over to Chris Stevens. That, and the banter – I had the best chats ever with other parties activists, giving a big f**k you to the ‘indyref has divided us’ BS. It’s made us better, more confident people (shame about the Yoons tho)
Hahaha, so the BBC are using NOTIONAL madey-up numbers AND including all by-election results,,, NOT doing a comparison with 2012 results,,, astounding that they can put forward those figures (+ and -) without saying how they got them – they have no shame. I was so confused by the overall results numbers, nothing added up. Pathetic attempt at propaganda.
Good SNP did so well, and I am utterly bewildered by Labour’s (kezia’s) delusional attitude to their abysmal performance. And I am pleased the greens gained some seats,,, or did they? Notionally they did anyway – publicly owned electric buses are a good idea!
Is there anywhere else, apart from BBC website, that I can go to get live updates to election results? (No TV)
Heard Taylor mumbling on about ‘nominal’ due to boundary changes but no explanation of what those changes were. Anybody know? To me 231-225=+6, oh hang on better get my patent Jackie Baillie calculator out.
Auld Rock
@Ken500,
You better brace yourself, because after Scotland gains her Independence, there will be no FPTP in any elections.
It was a big tactical mistake of the unionists to bring in PR to Holyrood,as with FPTP only, the SNP would have struggled to get into power. Their support was spread, whereas the unionists had strongholds with seats for life under FPTP. Under FPTP, only in marginals is it where your vote counts.
In 2007, under your beloved FPTP part of the Holyrood election, the SNP got 32.9% of the vote and Labour 32.2%, however Labour got 16 more seats so without PR, no SNP minority government and probably no referendums.
Hey Rev, did Ruth get her 27% swing after all? 😉
Anyone know what first preference figures were for snp.
Just wondering what the equivalent FPTP numbers would look like
Looks like Unionist sectarianism is climbing back out of the sewer. Good one Ruthie!
Whats the final take taking the boundary changes into consideration ?
We know the SNP won – number of councilors elected, number of largest party councils and largest party in more councils than any other party in a system designed to limit majority control
We also know the BBC and all the rest of the MSM will try anything to ignore the facts and to puff up any other party’s success
The tories did do well in comparison to what they had before, and they have done well at the expense of the labour party. The greens made gains and the lib-dems were kind of mediocre.
All that has happened today is that RD’s “say no to independence” party picked up the core unionist vote from other parties across Scotland.
Let’s leave them to their self congratulatory celebrations – even with the additional unionist votes they weren’t able to match the SNP numbers.
Let’s move on with quiet confidence – the SNP are still the most popular party, they still have a mandate for a second independence referendum and they also have an established team of clever, articulate, decent and hardworking MPs ready and able to defend their seats
@Truth
Cancelled my license fee three weeks ago. I was sick and tired of paying for the BS put out by the BBC and can confirm that it’s surprising what you find to do with the time you used to spend sat in front of the goggle box.
Reading about how the BBC are reporting on these council elections just confirms that I made a good choice. I’m waiting with anticipation for my first threatening letter warning me about the penalties of non payment so as I can tell them to GTF!
It is incredible to think of people in Ferguslie Park voting Conservative. It’s hard to imagine that they did so without some sense of embarrassment and confusion. I really believe that reaching out to these people and addressing their concerns is the solution to winning them over (as opposed to hiding in a forest and talking to your party members). The central pillars of ‘Orange unionism’ are football, religion, and Ulster politics. None of these should have any bearing on how people vote in the 21st century.
Have a look at some of the results and how the figures break down.
We may well have a Tory in Shelttleston ( on the 11th round) but actually we only got the SNP in on the 11th round as well !!!!!
The tory got in on 1,300 votes so another 800 people going out to vote could have possibly kept them out and got the other SNP candidate elected.
Wish it said how many postal votes there were.
Only a 37.5% turn out
SNP polled more actual 1st preference votes than the Conservatives in Stirling( by about 1,000) for what it’s worth. Both parties won 9 seats.
Scottie Dog
If we had been FPTP , SNP would have won the seat here in Stirling by about 1,000 votes even on a low turn out. Just counted up the 1st preference votes.
You could do it in your Council Area – in fact if we all do it tonight then we might just see some idea of what the FPTP result could look like and what areas are close.
I’m sure more people will come out to vote in June and also we will have some of those not eligible to vote yesterday EU citizens? and Commonwealth citizens.
Don’t forget, for an indy ref we would also have 16/17 year olds who are 75% YES.
waterbeastie @7.11pm
If you can bear to go to the BBC home page –
select the’ Scotland’ box on the main election item -(- NOT the Scotland heading in the Uk menu)
Scroll down that page and you’ll find a post-code box – that will take you to your result and a link to the relevant council website.
OK, the SNP did not beat the Tories by a straight knock-out, but, the margin of their points victory was overwhelming.
Doesn’t stop the BUMS from trying to spin the result as a Tory win.
thewaterbeastie says:
5 May, 2017 at 7:11 pm
There is a Wikipedia page on Scottish Local Elections, 2012 – anyone got vote share and percentage turnout yet?
me too
The SNP have done well but it is still disappointing that they didn’t gain overall control of Glasgow.
The talk of 54 SNP MPs is deliberately aimed to make SNP voters complacent.
As I have said before, the Greens should not stand any candidates for the Westminster election.
There is a very big risk of SNP losing seats due to tactical voting by the unionists.
As I posted a couple of days ago, the Tories are neither fools nor idiots. They are some of the nastiest people around.
Calling the likes of May fools and idiots is extremely naive.
The Tories getting an increase in their vote and opinion polls suggesting no majority support for a referendum before Brexit has been completed will embolden May to refuse permission for a second independence referendum before Brexit is completed.
It will then be too late for Scotland. We will be totally in the clutches of Tory Westminster.
With hardly 50% support, we will be in position to declare UDI. And we don’t have the spine for that anyway.
All independence supporters should make sure they go out to vote, and vote SNP in June.
This is absolutely not the time to vote for the Greens.
Why “Chinese arithmetic”?
More Pravda GB arithmetic.
Why “Chinese arithmetic”?
More like Pravda GB arithmetic.
Looking forward to Theresa May’s next walkabout in Ferguslie Park.
@Cuilean says: 5 May, 2017 at 6:20 pm:
“Why did the SNP High Heid Yins not unleash the ‘Vote Til You Boak’ machine against the Tories? They really missed a trick there, all perfectly legally and above board too.”
Have you considered, Cuilean, that perhaps a wiser and more cunning political strategist that yourself had concluded, BEFORE the campaign began, that it might not be a really good idea to be too dominant at Council level?
The Establishment have already tried to brainwash the hard of thinking that it is a very bad thing to have a, “One Party Government”, as dictators in Scotland.
Want to bet that we will soon be hearing about the, “SNP Dictators”, in our local government councils. I mean it wouldn’t be anything like the Labour dynasty that has ruled over Glasgow for so many years – after all unionist party council don’t dictate to people. Only evil Scottish Nationalist do things like that. Not like those nice democratic, patriotic, London based, unionist parties.
Then we will be informed about all the baaad austerity cuts those evil, non-democratic, dictatorial, separatist, nationalist, SNP people that now have an unhealthy hold on our local councils.
Got it now, Cuilean?
It may just be that it isn’t really a bad thing to have a, (cough), strong and steady, opposition to compare the SNP led councils with.
in any case I await the many strange bedfellow councils that will attempt, and maybe manage, to grab control in some councils. We have already seen councils where the SNP are the largest party but squeezed out by strange bedfellow councils.
Voters may indeed be gyte – but not that bloody gyte.
In 2003 not a single SNP councillor was elected in Edinburgh now they are the largest party with 19 seats. That alone shows just how far they have come.
They have won more Council seats yesterday than they did in 2012, a new record for the SNP. Sure we might have hoped they did even better but the really big story is the destruction of Labour in Scotland.
I truly believe Ian Murray in Edinburgh South will be the next Labour scalp. Duncan Hotdogstall will be weeping tonight with his pal McTernan, the SNP will have succeeded in obliterating Labour. That in itself is cause for celebration and simply astonishing to me at least as it could not have been imagined just 5 years ago.
This Tory resurrection won’t last, not when the gullible that switched their vote from Labour to the Tories begin to feel the pain that will be rained upon them by Tory austerity. That includes the pensioners losing their triple lock and almost certainly a rise in VAT which they refused to talk about.
This is all to the good, hell mend those too ignorant to know any better. They’d better get educating themselves and fast for they will be the ones to suffer along with the rest of us.
Scotland v Tory in Indyref2 no question about that. We’ll win that one as the Tory support start to unravel, keep the chin up.
Right, so, i am a bit more confused – I looked at a link to STV.tv for election results (by Aiden Kerr), and they had exactly the same losses and gains for every party EXCEPT the SNP, putting them at +7.
So, was this a typo by STV, or does ‘notional due to boundary changes’ numbers by the BBC only apply to the SNP? The latter is of course quite feasible. Craig Murray says the actual number of seats hasn’t changed, so if you took the additional by election results to get the -7 for SNP, surely one of the other party’s gains would be different,,, ?
I should just give up now. Craig Murray also estimates Tories (Scotland) vote share at less than 24%, good man for clarifying 🙂
The BBC clearly compares the Aberdeenshire 2017 result with the 2012 result adding an extra seat which may have been won at a by-election. They state on their website that it is 2012 that they are comparing with (but plus 1 SNP for some reason).
link to bbc.co.uk
Wikipedia 2012 result
link to en.wikipedia.org
However, the overall political composition of the council, following subsequent defections and by-elections, changed as follows:
link to en.wikipedia.org
Scottish National Party 26
Conservative 17
Independent 12
Liberal Democrat 9
Labour Party 2
Green Party 1
Either they are adjusting for boundary changes, by-elections etc or they are not. In Aberdeenshire they are not. Because that increases the SNP drop and Tory gain.
So how then can the national vote reflect gains and losses from last week reflecting boundary changes if individual results are based on 2012 votes?
Somebody at the BBC is massaging the figures to make the Tories look better than they are.
Amendment to my previous comment: the number of seats HAS changed, increased by 4. So, i only have a 3-seat discrepancy now, but I always was rubbish at arithmetic. Giving up now.
@Iain says: 5 May, 2017 at 6:26 pm:
“The BBC don’t do truth.”
Of course they do – or rather they claim to do – but they explain it as being, “Alternative Truth”, a.k.a. “Bloody big lies”.
Truth is rather like wealth – there is no alternative Wealth – you either have it or have it not.
BBC hoping no one can be bothered checking figures from 2012 results.
Amendment to my previous comment: there HAS been a change in number of council seats, an increase of 4. So, I now only have a discrepancy of 3. But my arithmetic always has been rubbish, so giving up now.
This is beginning to piss even me off. The Guardian have the SNP DOWN 31 seats now compared to 2012. I’m getting very annoyed now.
No, I’m fucking raging at the lies and the spin by the lot of them.
“Sturgeon had hoped to win a working majority in Glasgow but will now be looking for alliances there and in Edinburgh with the Scottish Greens, which enjoyed modest gains in both cities. The SNP was 31 seats down across Scotland on their levels in 2012, down seven after boundary changes were taken into account.”
No link as can’t archive right now and I won’t send anyone to that website.
In 2012 there were 1,223 council seats in Scotland. In 2015 there were 1,227. Which means in percentage terms the SNP went from 34.75% to 35.13%. This is hardly a massive increase but it is an increase not the decrease of 1.6% as BBC imply.
I’m really amazed how the get away with this!
Okay. I woke up this morning to people wailing and beating their heads because Tories had gained seats in local council elections. STOP DOING THIS. It’s not a bad sign, and let me explain WHY:
Think of two pimples. They are sometimes painful, always irritating and definitely unsightly. The first pimple has been squeezed and is now effectively GONE (Labour). The second pimple, while seeming to grow, is going to be squeezed VERY soon. It seems to be growing, because the first pimple left it some room. But it won’t get any bigger, and there is a big acne cleaner coming your way – the GE.
So SUCK IT UP. Move on and show the Tories they will NEVER be anything but a pimple to be squeezed in Scotland. Hail Alba!
@ meg merrilees at 8.34
EU nationals do not get a vote in June, unless they are Irish, Cypriot or Maltese.
(I’m repeating a post I put on the last thread, beacuse you’ve mentioned it again here.)
Maybe the bold Donald Trump is right after all eh?- FAKE NEWS/MEDIA Lol
I have a confession to make!
I accepted the minus seven as a fact. I was stupid enough to think that the even the BBC would report the actual base facts of the election.
I hang my head in shame…but it is a brutal reminder of the media control and propaganda in play.
It is also a lesson of the need to promote Wings to help counter the lies.
I’m away now to flay my back for being an idiot.
If the Tories achieved 24% of the vote today it means that only around 10/11% of the total electorate voted for them.
In low turnout council elections a distortion is easily achieved and the SNP has done so in many places in the past. I suspect the Tories have done so today. Postal vote total figures would be very interesting as I have little doubt they hugely favour the Tories who will have been quietly getting that together for months.
It is entirely possible that today’s result represents peak Tory but I have to state again I would like to know why SNP vetting was holding candidate selection up until February and March giving new and unknown candidate no chance to become well known locally. In the rural area where I operate this identification is hugely important if the SNP is to combat the traditional Tory vote which will come out to vote for tortoise in blue colours.
However we now have the battle we want. It is Scotland against the Tories who should now be referred to only as “the unionists”.
It’s called Distorting by Numbers!
With Regard the Shettleston type results, that just never happened!
Was it Putin, Trump or GHQ that did something too stupid to be credible.
The people of Shettleston WANT to see the NHS Privatised,
Prescription charges re-introduced,
Workers rights destroyed,
Bridge and Motorway tolls,
University fees re-introduced,
The Forth Bridge sold to the Chinese,
they want to pay for high speed rail in England,
they hated the council tax freeze,
they love austerity along with the Bedroom Tax, tax increases, increased insurance taxes, the end of pension increases.
Who the F*** could possibly suggest for all of that English Tory Crap people en-masse put what happened in 1690 before their, the future of Scotland and of their children?
Does anyone know if Shettleston has taken in thousands of North Korean refugees?
Could they have mistaken Ruth Davidson for Kim Jung Un, the only one that you can vote for?
Celtic beat Rangers 5-1 last week so going by the BBC’s reckoning it was a Rangers victory because they scored a goal.
Never forget folks these results ,MINUS 7 PLUS 31 MINUS 14, or any other set of figures the Conservative Broadcasting Corporation comes up with is surely down to the CBC using the old BBC Calculator as used frequently by one Jackie Baillie!
I’m not at all surprised that the Tories have cornered the Loyalist vote in west-central Scotland.
RISE and the like claimed that there was a vast populist vote just waiting to be garnered from deprived areas, which in principle ought to be true, but my feeling has always been that it’s the right who have the expertise in populist dog whistle politics – latch on to prejudice and distract the easily-diverted into voting for policies that objectively are diametrically opposed to their interests.
So the Tories have prized away the prejudiced anti-immigrant portion of the Labour tribal vote, big deal. There’s still a natural majority available for indy to tap into, and who more than ever can see that a progressive future is only available in an independent Scotland.
Yet poor Kezia is still banging on inconsequentially on TV that Labour still support the Union. Ill-judged hardly describes it. The Tories have stolen one of Labour’s legs yet she seems to think they can still “get their trainers on” and do a sprint!
I didn’t know psychoactive drugs were legal in the UK. Uh.
meg merrilees @ 20:34,
Unfortunately, those pesky EU furriners are not allowed to vote for the almightly Westminster. Can’t pollute the “Great Mother of all parliaments”, you know.
But some Commonwealth citizens can, as can ex-pats gone for less than 15 years.
I think this guy may be a bit upset about Tory progress across England.
He calls UKIP the tory stormtroopers. Has got a point!
Not sure where Nicola sits on his radar though and wouldn’t want to ask – now is not the time!
Artist Taxi driver (2.20sec video)
link to twitter.com
BBC catching up 1984 style :’How many fingers am I holding up, Winston?’
‘I don’t know. I don’t know. You will kill me if you do that again. Four, five, six — in all honesty I don’t know.’
‘Better,’ said O’Brien.
How many seats have the SNP lost Brian?…..
Thanks crazy cat – wasn’t sure on the last thread either – after i’d posted it.
EU nationals only get to vote in the Indy ref N’est ce pas?
@Arthur Martin says: 5 May, 2017 at 8:07 pm:
” … I’m waiting with anticipation for my first threatening letter warning me about the penalties of non payment so as I can tell them to GTF!”
Whoa! Arthur, don’t tell them anything of the sort.
You will find it far more satisfying to get yourself a big paper clip and take each and every letter you get addressed to, “The Legal Occupier”, and add it to the ever thicker file of evidence you are gathering to sue the company, (They are NOT the BBC and although they tell you they are, “Officers”, and imply they are thus some form of Law enforcement Officers they are not. Anyone who works from an Office is an Officer of that Office.
They belong to no Law Enforcement force such as the Police Force. They are NOT the BBC they are more or less just a Debt Collecting outfit that the BBC has contracted to collect on what the BBC wrongly views as debt.
Here’s the truth :- It is not a crime to own a TV set and, these days, TV sets are Smart and can directly access the internet if you have an internet connection. They can also be used as large screen Computer Monitors and as Monitors for Games Consoles, DVD, Blu-Ray disk players. ETC.
There is no statutory obligation for anyone to inform the BBC, or a debt collector, of anything and the reason the letters sent are addressed to, “The Legal Occupier”, is because they do not know who lives at that address or if the Occupier, or Occupiers, are owners or renters or guests at that address.
Now here is the legal status of the debt collectors. They have no more legal rights to enter your property than any other member of the public. Like everyone else they can apply for a search Warrant but that requires they have your details and proof that there is reasonable suspicion of criminal activity.
Furthermore, if they get a warrant they need a police officer or a bailiff to enforce it.
Their legal right is to enter into a property and proceed to the main entrance in order to contact, “The Occupier”. They must not perv through windows or wander around. So, if you ask then to name who they wish to speak with and they cannot name them you can tell them to leave at once.
Their legal entry can also be prevented if you display a notice that says something like, “No Hawkers”, or, “No Cold Callers”.
Now to why you should keep all their threatening letters.
It is a criminal offence in Scotland to threaten anyone with the object of getting money and that includes threats of legal action. Under Scottish law it is called, “coercion”, and is a bit like the English law called, “Blackmail”.
There is also a law against persistent bothering, or pestering, anyone, in particular in a threatening manner.
That ever growing file of threatening letters with absolutely no proof of any criminal activity on your part is evidence of them – “Stalking”, you among other things.
Including the assumption and inference that you are guilty of something, (watching TV without a licence). They have no right to presume you are a criminal.
Do not tell them anything including that you do not watch TV. It helps them to know who you are – so tell them nothing and save that evidence of them threatening you with legal action and also pestering you.
BTW: I’ve been waiting for their threatened visit for around 6 or 7 years and I’m hardly ever out to have missed them because I’m disabled and more or less housebound.
You have no legal duty to even tell them you do not watch TV. Thing is, if you have a thick bundle of threatening letters demanding money – you have evidence that they may be guilty of criminal acts – but that is not for you to say they are guilty – it is only the courts that can legally do that – not even the police can claim you are guilty and they must pass their evidence to the Procurators Fiscal who also do not say you are guilty – they leave that to the courts.
Those numbers were annoying me so much I couldn’t let it go and I Got the Calculator Out (a graphics one no less). I just did some simple sums on it because I’ve forgotten how to do Fourier regression, to try and figure out how the BBC might be justifying their numbers – can’t find anything on their website that actually explains it – in the ‘how we work it out’ section they say ‘we use notional numbers’. I didn’t think that was sufficient as an explanation.
So, they have adjusted for there being 4 more seats than the 2012 election, and all the changes they state do indeed add up to 0, while actual change adds up to +4. Now. I have no idea how they account for border changes, but the differences between BBC change and actual change results in:
SNP -13
Lab -1
Ind’t. -2
Con. +3
Libdem. +1
Other. +8
Green 0
The BBC do not mention Other (as far as I can tell), but I notice something about these adjusted figures from the BBC. Hmm. Maybe I should have looked at percentages and it would a fair analysis.
@Scottiedog & Arthur Martin
Well done guys. I stopped many years ago, must have nearly 100 letters across three addresses. Only ever had one visit and I wasn’t in.
Never respond, that way they are certain someone lives there.
I’m proud of the both of you. Come on then, anyone else for hitting the BBC where it hurts?
Independence is something foreign,
to many of a certain type and generation..
..who turn out in droves with the Churchillian spirit of
‘we like things the way they were’, even though most never were.
Independence requires people who are looking forward, future pensioners, future homeowners, future generations.
Let Scotland free. Vote SNP.
Ongoing battle on Wikipedia “Scottish local elections, 2017” page where the results under “seat change” has been see-sawing from Down 7 to up 6 all evening. Apparently the BBC is a ” reliable source” that 425 minus 7 is 43I.
link to en.wikipedia.org
I would have thought it was obvious…
Jackie Balie has been breeding calculators!!!Duh!!!
BBC are her best customers…who knew????
On a more serious note..
Gerry Parker well done,a decently fought campaign, I hope you are not too disappointed,you would have been a real asset in N.Lanarkshire,for the people of N.Lanarkshire.
It would also have been good to have someone we could trust to tell us what is really going on.
It is horrendous to always be wondering how the people in government are trying to keep your country shackled to another by stealth.
Hopefully you feel battle hardened and ready to use your experience to pitch in the next two (yes I think two should do it) campaign’s.
I know that your team are….and they are good uns…as I am sure you don’t need telling.!!!!
Socrates McSporran at 6.36. I am feeling better for that info
@ Meg merrilees
The Green amendment explicitly giving the vote to EU nationals and 16-17 year olds was passed, so yes, they will be enfranchised for ScotRef.
As for Chunky Mark, he came up to one of the Hope Over Fear rallies in George Square and I think he’s a Nicola fan, somehow 🙂 .
That’s some pic of Theresa May. Stress is getting to her. She’s lost her hair, and piled on the pounds.
Was Jackie Baillie’s calculator doing the rounds yesterday?
Been 2 years now without paying the BBC tax. £300 better off and I get better programmes from Netflix, NowTV and Amazon as well as all the free ITV, C4 and C5 stuff on catchup. All in glorious HD and I am keeeping the local postie in work delivering the monthly BBC warning letter.
If Unionist Labour voters have switched en masse to the Tories and this result is an indication of the sum total of what the anti-indy crowd can muster, things are looking good.
Does anyone have voter share % for the whole of Scotland? Seems weird that no-one is publishing them.
the BBC is licking the backside of the goverment becasue its due to sign its new charter.i watch it now to see how bias they are
It would appear that the mystery of the 6 seats has been solved. The BBC in their infinite wisdom have calculated a “notional” figure of 438 being the number of seats SNP would have had if 2017 boundaries were in place at the 201 elections. So therefore the SNP have, quite obviously, lost 6 mythical seats… cannot believe how stupid we’ve all been about this! I wonder if Diane Abbot came up with that logic. Anyhow, if you’ll excuse me I need to go feed my pet unicorn…
But the BBC also reported the SNP “is now the largest party in 16 council areas – up from 10 in 2012” and “won most seats in the local elections”
Here’s the explanation given on the BBC page. I don’t pretend to understand it!
“Because of boundary changes in most Scottish councils, many 2012 results are “notional” in terms of direct comparisons – in other words they estimate what the 2012 result was using the new 2017 boundaries.
The BBC’s Scottish political editor Brian Taylor says on that count, the SNP are notionally down by a fractional seven seats.
However, in terms of absolute numbers, the nationalists have ended up with more councillors than five years ago.”