A few days ago, our mole in Scottish Labour HQ sent us the first draft of Johann Lamont’s speech to the Scottish Labour conference. Oddly, a few lines seem to have gone missing from the version delivered to the hall yesterday afternoon.
Here’s the full original text, so you can see what Johann was really trying to say.
The most interestingly consistent trend of recent opinion polls has been a significant movement away from the No vote to the Don’t Know camp. Almost every one conducted in the last few months has shown the proportion of the population intending to vote against independence dropping below 50%, but the Yes campaign has only picked up a minority, with the rest now firmly undecided.
The significance of this shift shouldn’t be underestimated. Once someone’s opinion starts to change, more often than not it tends to keep moving in the same direction, unless there’s a fundamental alteration in the reasons that caused it to start. And with the anti-independence side showing no signs of abandoning their campaign of relentless negativity, that seems unlikely.
However, it also shouldn’t be OVER-estimated. A crucial section of the populace has signified its willingness to be persuaded, but if it’s to turn the headline figures around YesScotland still has to finish the job. In order to understand how that might be achieved, we need to examine the fundamental tenets of Unionism.
The devil, they say, is in the detail, and that certainly seems to apply to the UK Government’s first paper on the consequences of Scottish independence. With remarkably little fanfare, the coalition appears to have dropped an atomic bomb into the heart of the constitutional debate, and not even realised it.
The core premise of the document appears to be the counter-intuitive idea that the UK can have it both ways – it can insist that an independent Scotland would be a brand-new nation with no rights to any of the shared property of the UK, but that it would somehow simultaneously be responsible for its full share of the UK’s liabilities. Michael Moore is quoted saying precisely that in today’s Herald.
The justification for this outwardly-absurd claim rests on an astonishing assertion lurking unassumingly in a series of paragraphs in the middle of the paper. We’ve copied it below and highlighted a couple of the relevant phrases.
We’re indebted to commenter “DougtheDug” on A Sair Fecht for spotting this one. On Tuesday in the House of Commons section 30 debate, Labour MP Ian Davidson bitterly attacked the Scottish Government for allegedly timing the independence referendum to coincide – at least to within six months – with the 700th anniversary of the Battle Of Bannockburn. (Ignoring the fact that the referendum would have happened years ago had it not been vigorously opposed and blocked by Labour.)
Davidson claimed that the timing amounted to “celebrating the murder of hundreds or thousands of English people“, and accused the SNP of exploiting anti-English sentiment for “partisan advantage”. It was a contemptible enough piece of dog-whistle politics in its own right, but all the more extraordinarily hypocritical in the light of this:
Lurking in the Westminster archives is an Early Day Motion from late 2003, in which Mr Davidson was happy to attach his name to a Parliamentary celebration – tabled by the Conservative MP for Romford, Andrew Rosindell – of what we presume we must call “the murder of hundreds or thousands of French and Spanish people”.
We must admit, we’re a little confused. Apparently openly and explicitly rejoicing at the historic deaths of enemy troops is fine if you’re a British nationalist, but disgusting, racist political chicanery if you’re a Scottish one (even when you’re not actually doing it). Can anyone point us at the rulebook for this sort of thing?
The prime raison d’etre of a government is to provide for its citizens defence, security and services that either an individual would be unable to provide for themselves, or where such services are in the public interest but cannot be adequately served by market forces. Government is there to act on our behalf and in the common interest of our society, and in order to do so is funded by the people through taxation.
It’s the responsibility of any government to ensure that the services that the public pay for are maintained and that the money that is paid in taxation is spent as effectively as possible in delivering those services. These are not “giveaways”, but the reallocation of public funds to meet the needs of the populace, a transaction in which the recipient of the service has already provided payment – in many cases far more than they would ever recoup themselves.
Historically this was the most basic founding principle of the Labour Party, which advocated socialist policies such as public ownership of key industries, government intervention in the economy, redistribution of wealth, increased rights for workers, the welfare state, publicly funded healthcare and education. These principles were duly enshrined in “Clause IV” of the Labour constitution.
In 1995, however, “Clause IV” was abolished by Tony Blair, heralding the birth of “New Labour” and the adoption of market based solutions and neo-liberalisation. Labour in Scotland was less keen to accept this new creed than its compatriots south of the border, but when Johann Lamont recently signalled Scottish Labour’s final submission to the triangulated centre-right doctrine, many whose traditional sympathies lay with the party rounded bitterly on her policy shift.
If you’ve been reading this site for a while, you could be forgiven for thinking that the “positive case for the Union” was some sort of mythical beast, akin to the fabled unicorn. But that’s not quite the case. It did once exist, many moons ago, but has since become extinct – a victim of an ever-changing world where it was unable to compete and it couldn’t adapt to its new environment, thereby spelling its doom.
So just what was the positive case when it existed? Let’s find out.
The Reference section comprises several categories: links to selected Wings features containing key facts, figures and arguments; a repository of documentation relevant to the independence referendum (from all sides); archive copies of important articles in other publications, and a few interesting video clips.
(The full archive of “reference”-tagged posts is here.)
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Westminster polling (Scotland) 2017-19
Westminster polling (Scotland) 2007-2017
UK-wide general election polling
Indyref polling Jan 2013-Sep 2014
Indyref polling Oct 2014-May 2016
Independence opinion polling (pre-2014 referendum, only with DKs)
Independence opinion polling (post-2014 referendum, only with DKs)
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The Road Ahead From Here
Our only remaining legal and non-violent route to independence.
The Endless Road
How we can have a plebiscitary election within weeks, without Westminster permission.
For English Gold
How much staying in the UK is worth to the SNP.
The Elephant In The Courtroom
What do we do if the UK government says “Now is not the time” forever?
The Buckaroo Principle
Why we can’t win if we make independence about a raft of specific policies.
An Idiot’s Guide To Tactical Voting In Scottish Parliament Elections
And why, basically, it can’t work. (See also Parts Two, Three, Four and Five).
The Limitations Of GERS
Why anyone who says they can prove what an independent Scotland’s financial condition would be based on the GERS figures is at best seriously misguided and at worst lying to you on purpose.
The Great Division
How the ideology of Margaret Thatcher still dominates British politics from beyond the grave, and how she did it by splitting the population into haves and have-nots.
What You Could Have Won
According to calculations by pro-Union economist Prof. Brian Ashcroft, had Scotland been independent since 1981 it would now have a reserve fund worth between £68bn and £200bn, rather than being liable for a share of the UK’s trillion-pound debt.
The Outstanding Balance
How has Scotland paid £16bn in debt interest in five years on £1bn of debt?
The Subsidy Myth
Not unrelated to the above, the only known recorded instance of a serving government minister admitting in the House Of Commons that Scotland has subsidised the rest of the UK by tens of billions of pounds since the 1970s.
The Historical Debt
UK Government figures showing that Scotland was a huge net contributor to the Treasury even decades before the discovery of North Sea oil.
Scottish Labour’s Biggest Lie
Does the largest party in a hung parliament have any special rights when it comes to forming the government? No. Next question.
Why Labour Doesn’t Need Scotland
The fallacy that Scottish independence would condemn the rest of the UK to perpetual Conservative governments comprehensively debunked with the facts.
The Faithful Lie
Not unrelated to the above – if you vote SNP, do you let the Tories in?
The Stab In The Back
Did the Nats usher in Mrs Thatcher? The true story of the 1979 devolution referendum, the subsequent vote of no confidence and the 34 Labour MPs blamed by their own leader for handing the Tories victory – told by someone who should know. (Also this.)
The Angels’ Share
How Scotland gets hammered twice for more than its fair share of UK finances, and then told that that leaves it too poor to run its own affairs.
Why We Won’t Lose The BBC In An Independent Scotland
How Scotland would in fact have vastly MORE money to spend on broadcasting.
Reasons To Be Fearful
The very best of the Unionist scare stories…
Fearwatch
…a selection solely from April-July 2014…
40 Reasons To Vote Yes
…and then some true ones.
The Nuclear Deterrence FAQ
Why Trident makes no sense on any level.
The Oil Debate For Busy People
Who to believe?
The Wrong Lizards
Why it doesn’t matter which UK party you vote for.
Referenda For Dummies
It’s really not that complicated. So why do so few people seem to understand what the purpose of a referendum is?
Alex Salmond Dictator-Comparison Bingo
Which despotic, genocidal murderers have or haven’t Unionists compared the democratically-elected First Minister of Scotland to?
What Happens If We Vote No
There might indeed be “more powers”, sort of. But you won’t like them.
The Barnett Future
One of the likely outcomes of “more powers” is a massive cut to the Scottish block grant, via the abolition of the Barnett Formula. But don’t just take our word for that, listen to what everyone else says.
Independence Falls Behind, Surges Ahead
What cross-party voting intentions tell us about the likely referendum result.
Scottish Labour Policy Update
What, if anything, do Scottish Labour stand for this week?
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A collection of various documents from Yes/No and others, mainly in PDF format.
50 Questions The No Campaign Must Answer
A’ The Blue Bonnets – Defending An Independent Scotland
(Stuart Crawford and Richard Marsh, October 2012)
A Model Constitution For Scotland
(The Constitutional Commission, 2011)
Achieving Autonomy
(The All-Party Parliamentary Taxation Group, November 2013)
Assessment Of Key Currency Options – Technical Annex
(Fiscal Commission Working Group, February 2013)
“Better Together” – 500 Questions
(May 2013)
Campbell II report
(Scottish Liberal Democrats, 9 March 2014)
Cancelling Trident – Economic And Employment Consequences For Scotland
(STUC, 2007)
Currency Choices For An Independent Scotland
(Scottish Government/Fiscal Commission Working Group, April 2013)
Devolution: A Decade On
(House Of Commons Justice Select Committee, 2009)
Disaggregation of HMRC tax receipts in England, Wales, Scotland & N. Ireland
(HMRC, October 2013)
Fairness In The First Year
(University of the West of Scotland, 2013)
Federalism: The Best Future For Scotland
(Scottish Liberal Democrats, 2012)
Federalism: The Best Future For Scotland (summary of recommendations)
(Scottish Liberal Democrats, 2012)
Fiscal Sustainability Of An Independent Scotland
(Institute for Fiscal Studies, November 2013)
Foreign policy implications of and for a separate Scotland
(Graham Avery, Honorary Director-General of the European Commission, 2013)
Funding Devo More
(Institute for Public Policy Research, January 2013)
Funding Devolved Government In Wales: Barnett And Beyond
(The Holtham Commission, July 2009)
Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (GERS) 2011-12
Glasgow Labour council election manifesto 2012
Key Considerations For Rating An Independent Scotland
(Standard And Poor’s, 27 February 2014)
Labour Party UK general election manifesto 2010
Labour’s Lost Grassroots: The Rise And Fall Of Party Membership
(Bristol University, 2013)
Make Sure You’re In The Know
(UK government, 20 January 2014)
Official Statistics in the context of the referendum on Scottish independence
(UK Statistics Authority, October 2013)
Power To The People
(Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust, 2014)
Powers For A Purpose – Strengthening Devolution (Interim Report)
(Scottish Labour Devolution Commission, April 2013)
Powers For A Purpose – Strengthening Devolution (Executive Summary)
(Scottish Labour Devolution Commission, March 2014)
Powers For A Purpose – Strengthening Devolution (Full Final Report)
(Scottish Labour Devolution Commission, March 2014)
Referendum On The Independence Of Scotland – International Law Aspects
(Profs James Crawford SC and Alan Boyle, 2013)
Reflections on Defending an Independent Scotland: A View from Ireland
(Institute of International and European Affairs, August 2013)
Securing The Nation – Defending An Independent Scotland
(Scottish Global Forum, 12 November 2013)
Serving Scotland Better: Scotland And The UK In The 21st Century
(aka The Calman Commission Final Report, June 2009)
Scotland Act 1998
(HM Government, 19 November 1998)
Scotland Act 2012
(HM Government, 1 May 2012)
Scotland’s Economic Future
(Reform Scotland, October 2011)
Scotland’s Future (“The White Paper”)
(Scottish Government, November 2013)
Scotland’s Population 2011
(National Statistics, August 2012)
Scotland as an Independent Small State: Where would it seek shelter?
(Icelandic Review Of Politics And Administration, June 2013)
Scotland Decides
(The Herald, 18 December 2013)
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2012 (briefing notes)
Scottish Social Attitudes Survey 2012 (tables)
Scottish Labour: new directions
(Wendy Alexander MSP, 2008)
Scottish Labour Holyrood general election manifesto 2011
Scottish Labour Party accounts 2009
Scottish Labour Party accounts 2010
Scottish Labour Party accounts 2011
Scottish Liberal Democrats general election manifesto 2010
SNP Holyrood general election manifesto 1999
SNP Westminster general election manifesto 2001
SNP Holyrood general election manifesto 2003
SNP Westminster general election manifesto 2005
SNP Holyrood general election manifesto 2007
SNP Westminster general election manifesto 2010
SNP Holyrood general election manifesto 2011
SNP Westminster general election manifesto 2015
SNP Holyrood general election manifesto 2016
SNP Westminster general election manifesto 2017
SNP Westminster general election manifesto 2019
SNP Holyrood general election manifesto 2021
Strathclyde Commission on the Future Governance of Scotland
(Scottish Conservatives, 2 June 2014)
The 1997 Scottish Referendum – Analysis Of Results
The Claim Of Scotland
(HJ Paton, 1968)
The Common Weal
(Jimmy Reid Foundation, 2013)
The Economics Of Currency Union
(Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank Of England, 29 Jan 2014)
The Option Not On The Table – Attitudes To More Devolution
(ScotCen Social Research, 2013)
The Quebec Referendums
(House Of Commons Library, July 2013)
The UK’s Public Finances In The Long Run: The IFS Model
(Institute for Fiscal Studies, December 2013)
Together We Can (The “Red Paper”)
(Scottish Labour, March 2014)
Transitioning To A New Scottish State
(Prof. Patrick Dunleavy, London School of Economics, 22 June 2014)
Trident – Nowhere To Go
(CND/Scottish CND, January 2012)
UK Continental Shelf – Maximising Recovery Review
(Sir Ian Wood, 24 February 2014)
UK debt and the Scotland independence referendum
(UK government statement, January 2014)
UK general election statistics 1945-2003
UK government ‘Scotland Analysis’ papers (website)
UK National Asset Register 2007 (most recent edition)
UK Oilfields And Boundaries
(Mahdi Zahraa, Glasgow Caledonian University, 2001)
UK public spending by region
(House Of Commons Library, 24 January 2014)
Views Of Scottish Labour Leadership Candidates On Nuclear Weapons
(Scottish CND, 2011)
We Belong Together: The Case For A United Kingdom
(Alistair Darling, July 2013)
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Figures explode subsidy myth: Scotland gave £27bn more than was received
(The Herald, March 1997)
How black gold was hijacked: North sea oil and the betrayal of Scotland
(The Independent, December 2005) (archive link)
North Sea oil gave Scotland ‘massive’ budget surplus, say Government records
(The Telegraph, September 2009) (archive link)
Scotland and the banking bailout – time for the truth
(The Scotsman, July 2011) (alternative version with links) (archive link)
State Papers on Scotland: Economic Advantages to Scotland of the Union
(UK government, 1975) (archive link)
How democracy was stripped from the SNP
(Robin McAlpine, 2022)
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Diomhair (translation: secret, confidential)
(BBC Alba, 2008) (direct download)
Full English transcript
“The story of how successive Labour and Conservative governments up until the 1970s worked behind the scenes to discredit the Home Rule movement and the SNP – as revealed through once secret papers now available from official archives.”
Five Million Questions
(Dundee University, October 2013, Blair Jenkins/Blair McDougall) (direct download)
Scotland: A Time To Choose
(The Scotsman Debate/BBC, 1992, Salmond/Dewar/Lang/Bruce) (direct download)
The Cheviot, The Stag And The Black, Black Oil
(BBC, 1974) (direct download)
“The history of economic change in the Scottish Highlands, from the Clearances in the early 19th century through to the contemporary oil boom.”
The Fear Factor
(Rough Justice Films, 2013) (direct download)
The Great Debate
(BBC Scotland, February 1995, Alex Salmond vs George Robertson) (direct download)
Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary. (More)
Wings Over Scotland
