Marking Time
We don’t really have very much to add to our analysis of yesterday. Sunday’s papers and politics shows have just confirmed our view of where things stand.
But for those whose heads are spinning, let’s see if we can make it simpler.
We’re going to rule out Yousaf being smart enough to take our sensible advice from that article and trigger a general election immediately. That being so, these are the remaining options for what can unfold next week:
SCENARIO A
Humza Yousaf resigns before the votes of confidence (which will most likely be on Wednesday or Thursday) can take place.
What happens then?
Nothing much changes. The Tory vote of confidence in Yousaf will be cancelled, but the Labour one in the entire government will still go ahead and will be supported by the three Unionist parties.
Since Alba won’t have been able to secure any concessions that would justify them supporting the government, they will logically have to either back the motion or abstain, which has the same effect.
The same applies to the Greens: since they won’t know who the new FM will be* – it could be Kate Forbes, eek! – they can’t risk letting the government off the hook and will have to support the motion too.
RESULT: The government falls.
The government falling does not automatically trigger a general election. However, it would be effectively impossible to form a replacement government in 28 days, because neither the government nor the opposition can command any sort of working majority. So an election WOULD follow.
(Fun fact! Under the Scotland Act, an election this year would have no impact on the normal schedule of Holyrood elections, ie any government elected would only last until 2026, when we’d have to have another election.)
SCENARIO B
Humza Yousaf does NOT resign, and loses the Tory vote but survives the Labour one. (We’re not sure HOW he would, but it’s theoretically possible.)
What happens then?
Yousaf would come under intense pressure to resign, but under the law he doesn’t HAVE to. He can tell the SNP “Look, if I go the government collapses and you all lose your jobs”, and he can tell everyone else “Nyah nyah nyah I don’t care what you think, you all hate me anyway so who cares?”
RESULT: Business as usual. The government staggers on as a minority, with great difficulty, because the Greens won’t work with Yousaf and he’ll have to beg Labour and the Tories for votes to pass anything.
The reality of Scenario B is that unless Yousaf had somehow succeeded in winning back the Greens, another confidence vote would be called sooner rather than later and the whole mess of the last week would be repeated ad infinitum until one succeeded and an election was triggered. Nobody wants that, and the public would probably burn Holyrood to the ground.
SCENARIO C
Yousaf doesn’t resign, and WINS both votes.
What happens then?
Pigs fly, Hell freezes over, everyone marries a monkey’s auntie.
RESULT: See above – business as usual.
The only even theoretically plausible route to that outcome is if Yousaf makes some big concessions to Alba and somehow doesn’t trigger a rebellion in his own ranks by doing so (remember, a revolt of even one SNP MSP failing to back the government very likely causes its defeat), or if he makes no concessions but Alba then bottle out of bringing down an SNP government and back him anyway, AND no SNP MSPs fail to vote for the government for any reason.
SCENARIO D
Yousaf doesn’t resign, and loses both votes.
What happens then?
The entire Scottish Government has to resign, and as with Scenario A it’s highly unlikely that a new government could be formed within 28 days, so there’s an election and we don’t get to have a summer holiday.
All manner of zany capers both within and independent of these situations could and probably will transpire between now and Wednesday, but ultimately one of the four outcomes above will materialise. Wings’ view is that Scenario D is most likely, closely followed by A and then very distantly followed by B and C.
.
*Here’s a pertinent detail: outside of Parliamentary shenanigans it’s actually quite hard for the SNP to remove a leader except at annual conference, which is currently scheduled for 30 August-1 September. If Yousaf really decides to dig his heels in it could be October or November before the party has a new leader.
These clowns, a “confederacy of dunces” across the entire spectrum, are all vying to run this country. None of them show any aptitude or even interest. The people of Scotland are concerned with making ends meet, keeping warm and well fed. The people are concerned with education and the future of their children. They are concerned about health care. They are concerned about transport infrastructure and getting from A to B.
None of this appears to be reflected in the asinine shenanigans of the politicians.
Mr Yousaf must be thinking, “And somehow it all looked so easy when Mr Salmond was running minority administrations which governed Scotland competently, securing general approval ratings which took support from around 29% to around 50% between 2007 – 2014.”
He’ll mend them.
I was expecting a comment on the likelihood of iPad Mathieson showing up to vote (has he been seen of late?). Can you imagine the headlines of the government being saved by his vote? Sturgeon herself might find it difficult to clear her schedule.
Anyway, I personally like scenario B the most, especially it’s fire-y outcome!
Pretty spot on analysis as always. Is there also a possibility with Scenario B that the SNP put forward an interim FM (some sort of emergency measure?) to take over immediately from Humza after the Tory VNC, someone who the Greens approve of? So SNP survive the Labour VNC, but not with Humza, and they limp on again supported by the Greens rather than as a minority?
You missed I’m out Deva and Wee Colin charged.
Good work Stu but none if these guce us a way forwards running the country for the majority of us. Option D is best in my opinion.
Any election produces enough other independence party votes and seats to broker a deal with SNP.
Yousaf could do A Deal with alba and call an election on first vote snp second alba pulling all indy supporters together and clearing out the unionists ready for a uk general election.
Sadly i doubt he is an independent thought in his body
Are we ruling out a return of Sturgeon as per Scenario A?
Iain Gray
says:
28 April, 2024 at 5:09 pm
“He’ll mend them.”
No he won’t!
But hell might.
I was going go make a really stupid comment like…
Don’t these politicians realise that they are there to represent the public and not for themselves.
These politicians really couldn’t give two fucks about the electorate but only for their own party interests and Humza will, in my view will cling on for as long as feasibly possible because the money as FM is too good to resign over thus giving the likes of Anas Sarwar the opportunity to be the new 1st Minister.
What a dystopian Hell Alex Salmond inadvertently created when we all believe, including him, that Nocola was a great choice to continue the stewardship of the SNP.
‘Nobody wants that, and the public would probably burn Holyrood to the ground.’
Sensible policies for a happier Britain. The whole thing has been a waste of time money and resources on an Interplanetary scale,and has improved the lot of no-one (MSPs,AMs, advisers and prospective Milords excepted).
Down here the Cynulliad had to spend tens of millions on signage for the default 20mph scheme. Drakeford resigned JUST before enforcement commenced (rather like your FM with the unpleasantness, I suspect).
Our new FM has signalled that the policy will be ‘rolled back’- but they (ie, we) can’t afford to replace the signage again! A collector’s item.
And ALBA supporting the clown is just losing another chance to get rid of the tra itorous scum who have and continue to wreek havoc and division on the indy cause
There are not enough conditions for Dumza to agree to that makes it worthwhile for Scotland to continue to suffer this farce
Can anyone really see Dumza agree to BIN the GRRB, BIN the HCA, Support independence,Support a single indy representative , support snp 1 alba 2,take lessons from Salmond,Ignore Sturgeon in his ear giving him instructions, all the while WHITE,WHITE,WHITE PEOPLE are planning his removal
Ash Regan supporting Dumza you do realise the pain and misery you are unashamedly continuing to heap on Scotland and Scots
Burn down Holyrood!!!
Are you mad?
Remember what happened after the the Reichstag Fire!
Ah, so this is what the ‘continuity’ leadership looks like?
Why the f*** did the SNP membership vote for this?
(Rhetorical question – I know the answer and she’s likely still pulling the strings)
Rev wrote:
“If Yousaf really decides to dig his heels in it could be October or November before the party has a new leader.”
Yes, and it was only on Friday someone stated confidently on here btl that Yousless was going to resign tomorrow morning (meaning Saturday morning). I’ll spare that person’s blushes by not revealing their name. LOL!
English Council Elections on 2nd May… so in theory, we could be looking at 28 days, for Scottish Parliament to fall apart, followed by the 6 weeks minimum to hold an election, leading to a Holyrood election Mid July and a Westminster GE before it in Mid June.
Sven says on 28 April 2024 at 5:03 pm:
“Mr Yousaf must be thinking, “And somehow it all looked so easy when Mr Salmond was running minority administrations which governed Scotland competently, securing general approval ratings which took support from around 29% to around 50% between 2007 – 2014.”
Correct, Sven, and if i remember correctly it was from a starting point of 27%, that’s the figure quoted to me often.
Scenario E:
All SNP and Ash Regan vote against both motions of no confidence. The SNP stay in power, all the SNP MSPs keep their jobs. Alba have leverage over the SNP/government for as long as the SNP stay in power till the next election. Every one (SNP & ALBA) wins and the unionist parties lose.
Hopefully ALBA plays publicly to the SNP grassroots who basically want the same as the ALBA grassroots. A no from the parliamentary SNP is a big finger to their own membership.
My best guess is that Yousaf wins the confidence vote by 1 vote but only with the support of Ash Regan and the Presiding Officer. All assuming that all MSPs are available to vote on the day.
But the support of certain SNP colleagues is conditional on him resigning anyway, so that he can leave office to some extent on his own terms. Humza opts to go out on the “high” of winning the confidence vote rather than resigning before the vote.
The DFM becomes acting FM until a leadership election can be held.
The Greens, having got their revenge, will make it clear that they will abstain or support the Government in the Labour confidence vote which will then be withdrawn. Any concern over Kate Forbes becoming leader will be offset by the opportunity the Greens have to vote against her becoming FM.
I find unlikely that some gender mad SNP MSPs will back Yousaf if he does a deal with Alba who want the SNP to move away from gender indentity politics and to concentrate on bread and butter policies such as housing, the NHS education, and jobs, along with Scottish independence. so it looks like the government might fall in saying that those gender mad SNP MSPs would probably not get re-elected, and lose their cushy gravy train jobs, so maybe they will go along with the Yousaf/Regan deal.
In a previous thread I pointed out that Fergus Ewing said he won’t automatically back Yousaf, Ewing wants two concessions before he’ll back Yousaf.
If he has any sense, he will accept A, ALBA’s overture, but I doubt that he will, although I could be very wrong. So, D it is, as the other two are very unlikely. He could then approach the other independence parties and groupings and solicit their help in winning the triggered election, as the SNP should have done months ago, although, of course, he will have to make concessions. The SNP could limp back in this way and, In 2026, SNP 1 and ALBA 2, with informal unity the overriding factor. The Unionists have been doing this for years. It will take some humble pie to be consumed and the SNP may lose most of the parasitical ‘genderists’ (hooray!) to the Greens and Labour. The rallying cry of the 2026 election needs to be independence and voting for Labour, Lib Dems, Greens will mean a return to the ‘gender woo woo, and voting Tory will mean a return to austerity politics.
H Scott…
“Every one (SNP & ALBA) wins and the unionist parties lose.”
Jesus…
When are the loyal SNP sheep going to wake up to the reality that the SNP IS UNIONIST/DEVOLUTIONIST!
For nearly a decade the SNP have had mandate after mandate after mandate to have their MPs walk out of Westminster, to refuse to sign off Brexit, to run IndyRef2 and challenge Westminster, “the mother of Parliaments”, to outlaw democracy in the full glare of global publicity and do a Spanish number on Scotland’s political leaders by throwing them in jail.
What did the SNP do? The square root of fuck all!!!
The SNP concluded years ago that as a business they cannot survive without Westminster Short Money plus that which they can levy on their own MPs. Without Westminster, the SNP cannot exist in the size and shape it currently does.
The SNP have no interest in Indy because they’re financial turkeys on a fast-track to Christmas in the event it ever happens.
Wake up people FFS… The SNP is blocking Indy and taking you all for fools.
If most of the public knows there will be another election in 2026 whether one is held this year or not they could be inclined to go rouge and vote for small parties, if only as a temporary experiment.
1. Alba 2. ISP?
Maybe an indication that the SNP government will fall.
“Alba sent a briefing note out to the media on Sunday which said: “At an emergency meeting of the Alba Party National Executive Committee held today (Sunday), Alba Party’s NEC approved the proposal of Ash Regan MSP to put the party onto a Scottish Parliament election footing in the event that an early election is required.”
Regan also set out to the NEC what her priorities would be in any negotiations this week with Yousaf which include independence, women’s rights and the “restoration of competent government”.
The party said she received the unanimous backing of the ruling body to pursue these priorities “in the best interest of Scotland”.
Alba leader Alex Salmond has denied reports he proposed an electoral pact between Alba and the SNP as part of neogtiations.
“Given that I never made that proposal in the first place, that was an overwrite in a Sunday newspaper, we’re not particularly bothered by that,” Salmond said.
Yousaf has not ruled out an early Holyrood election.”
No option that the NuSNP and Greens will kiss and make up, potentially with more concessions to the Greens than pre-BHA?
Basing this on Blaa Blaa Blackfords apology for the way Yousless handled kicking the Greens into touch, Swiney (no typo) holding sway of Yousless resigns, Atlanticist NeoCon Stewart McDonalds comments around a SNP deal with Alba (‘cos Salmond and RT bad!) and the fact NS is almost certainly still pulling the strings.
Deal with Salmond = or become unemployed.
Sturgeon has no choice. The new regime is about to be ushered in by the Scots!
Sturgeon’s protection = lady dorian and the corrupt corrupt Dorothy Bain.
The new regime will remove crooked nicola’s protection.
P.S nicola. I hope the noose is tightening! You unemployed piece of human filth. No job at the UN thanks to lavender Pete.
YESS. YESSS. YESS.!
This time last night I was thinking big Eck was crazy for backing to keep the SNP alive.
Salmond the statesman.
Salmond. The guardian of Independence.
The dream shall never die.
Even after the SNP tried to kill him off. He offers them the way forward.
They can choose unemployment. Or independence.
Deal with Big eck.
Here was me thinking he was nuts last night to even propose the offer.
The tail wagging the dog. The real leaders of independence step up.
God bless alex salmond. God bless him.
“H Scott…
“Every one (SNP & ALBA) wins and the unionist parties lose.”
Jesus…
When are the loyal SNP sheep going to wake up to the reality that the SNP IS UNIONIST/DEVOLUTIONIST!”
I’m not an SNP member or supporter and I’m perfectly aware of the SNP’s passive approach to independence, but either the SNP continue in power, with or without an election, or Labour take power – and Labour are definitely a unionist party and have gone cold even on devolution. This is why Alba will support the SNP at the vote of no confidence in the government.
Wee Ginger Dug will be saying to the SNP.
Deal with Salmond. Or face unemployment.
The country despises the SNP. And the Independence activists still in the SNP will want them to deal with Salmond on independence.
otherwise they will never forgive Sturgeon and humza.
Sturgeon. Your lying eyes!
I hope the alphabetties are tossing and turning tonight.
They’ll soon be experiencing. GATE FEVER! in Corton Vale.
HAHAHAHAHA! Get into them! Get intae them!
“I don’t usually make predictions but….
I don’t think Humza Yousaf will make it to the vote of no confidence on Wednesday.
He will resign before that as he cannot accept support from Alba and the Greens have made clear they won’t back him.
It’s over.”
Jackie Baillie
“Centurion, why do they titter so ?”
Life of Humza.
Please Humza end the pain and embarrassment.
The message to the SNP is deal with Salmond or you are out of a job.
The deal is Humza gets support just now in return for SNP first vote, Alba Second vote.
Call a Scottish election soon (month or so) on a joint banner of independence. Clear out the Unionists from Holyrood and with the shock and horror for the unionists just before a UK election.
Go into UK election as a defacto with all parties for indy supporting. Do a seat by seat deal with Alba (face fact some of the SNP are complete dead wood and no loss).
Give Salmond the Vietnam group on a plate. They were working for the unionists.
If we get majority of seats but not majority of votes call a Scottish Convention and decide where we go.
Continuing in a continuity context is a complete and utter waste of time.
Thank you for the comprehensive breakdown. I would ask whether any consideration should be given to how an impending UK GE this year could affect voting preferences in Scotland? I’m thinking in terms of how 2007 saw an SNP victory and subsequent minority government, but 2010 saw business as usual in Scotland, with a Labour majority north of the border in an (ultimately futile) attempt to prevent another Tory government… Could we see a surge for Labour to oust the Tories, even if Starmer is indeed just a Tory in a red tie? If so, how would an impending Holyrood election before that be affected?
To my mind the Greens and Alba are playing a game of reverse brinkmanship just now. They are both fighting for the same votes which are the SNP list votes. Both know that if they are seen to collapse the SNP government they run the risk of alienating those voters. So Alba want the greens to be seen to hold the dagger, the Greens want Alba to be seen to hold the dagger. Alba want and election but don’t want to be seen to cause it, Greens don’t an election but do want to be seen to prepared to cause it.
The smart move from Alba is to be seen to be reasonable in its ask of Humza & the SNP. This forces the Greens and probably 1 or 2 SNP MSP nutters to cause the collapse for fear of Humza or successor ditching the gender woowoo.
However the greens in doing this would know that they run the risk of creating an election where they will be asking SNP voters to lend them their votes again and where their list vote will already be under pressure because the SNP will need more list votes.
With this sort of brinksmanship I fear the outcome will be Scenario C. Alba vote against the Tory motion, Alba and the greens vote against the Slab motion. If that happens it puts Humza is an accidentally strong position and from which he should do a policy shift away from the Green nonsense to what Salmond has proposed. However I think he will actually do nothing as he really isn’t very good or clever. Holyrood largely does nothing until the election on 2026.
Seperatism in Scotland is at the heart of the governability crisis, it’s not about Nicola or Humza. As long as people continue to be misled by the lie of seperation, nothing will change. It’s time to restore the equality of all UK citizens, and end this xenophobic experiment in devo-corruption and ethno-national discrimination. Ever wonder why the “independence movement” is so keen on censorship and cancel culture? Well, if everyone knew just how “independence” would devalue pensions, ruin the economy, and crash salaries, no one would vote for it at all. But people can’t be told those simple facts, due to woke online cancel culture!… how convenient. Under Council of Europe human rights rules, no one can be involuntarily deprived of their British citizenship, unless they committ a serious offence. They certainly couldn’t be deprived of their citizenship and right to continue their undisturbed family life within the UK, just because a misled majority voted for an absurd “independence” proposition in a disturbing referendum that ignores the question of individual rights. After all, that would amount to mob rule, not a democracy based on inalienable individual rights. It is a shame that proposals that would invariably end in this were ever even put to a referendum. It must never happen again. No party that does not recognise the territorial integrity of the UK should be eligible to administer UK taxpayer funds or be in charge of the regional governance in Scotland.
I like Option B. The classic Swan Vesta solution.
I’m reading all the predictions here and wondering if you have all gone collectively nuts.
Suffice to say that nobody has forecast the most likely outcome above, not even Wings.
Now, to be clear, I don’t know what the outcome will be myself and, that being the case, you might wonder why I am so sure that nobody else has made the correct prediction… hang on, though, and I’ll tell you why.
This is Scottish politics we are talking about. Whatever the outcome is, it is bound to be the most desperately boring fucking outcome imaginable.
I’m sorry to have to tell you all, then, that none of the predictions above, including all the bases covered by Wings, are anything like boring enough to come true.
You all know I’m right.
This last week has been interesting, next week probably will be as well. But whatever the outcome, it doesn’t really alter anything on independence, because the political decisions on that are made in Westminster.
Its gone from “Neil Gray nothing to see here” to “they’re out the door, defo” in a matter of yours here.
Ditching the Greens (something I agree with personally) has been punted incessantly ok Wings and now it’s a hapless decision potentially causing a govt to fall. Almost like it wasn’t such am obvious thing to do as being made out….
All this chaos of last few days.. imagine if Sturgeon hadn’t negotiated a deal.
This could have been unleashed at any time…
Doug
Ignored
says:
28 April, 2024 at 8:07 pm
If most of the public knows there will be another election in 2026 whether one is held this year or not they could be inclined to go rouge
The trans boys would be on a roll if that happened.
I am going for option A, which I think is the path of less resistance. But instead of resigning on his own accord I think Humza will be “encouraged” to resign by his master. If he resists, all the accumulated dirt on him hits the front pages.
According to that fountain of wisdom Liz Lloyd:
“Surviving will not just hang on westminster election result but on the price he (Yousaf) pays to find a route through parliament when no party has an incentive to help”
I have the feeling the master wants the greens back in government. So I think the master will recycle Humza with the next “progressive” puppet.
The Greens will be back on board to continue creating havoc, the SNP will continue to move away from independence making itself even more unelectable, the massive sell out of Scotland will continue at pace, and the colonial parties will be happy for another two years pretending to represent the opposition.
I hope Ms Regan and the SNP rebels pull the plug on the whole charade and force an election.
We know the realm of absurdity has reached it’s absolute limit when Jenny Gilruth is touted as a possible successor.I’m reminded of that line in Full Metal Jacket “In other words its a huge shit sandwich and we’re all gonna have to take a bite.”
Here’s some links for bookmarking, folks. Indyposterboy seems to be revamping his website. Unlike the old site, which thus far was better, i’ve had to look for the various categories separately. On the old site you could access all the categories (A6 cards, A5 etc) from the one page. Maybe Colin will get around to that but, meantime, here’s some links:
https://indyposterboy.scot/
https://indyposterboy.scot/the-power-grab/
https://indyposterboy.scot/category/a5-flyers/
https://indyposterboy.scot/?s=A6
https://indyposterboy.scot/giant-banners/
Sorry, Stuart, forgot about the too many links thing in my previous comment at 11:02 pm. Please feel free to remove one of them if that helps. Remove the last one, “giant banners” because i see that can be accessed from the “Home” page.
Antoine Bisset says “ None of them show any aptitude or even interest. The people of Scotland are concerned with making ends meet, keeping warm and well fed”
That’s because they are in the main, posh middle class privately educated w@nkers. They have no idea.
Folks, looks like Indyposterboy is revamping his website so here are some links. Hopefully he will get around to making all the categories accessible from his “Home” page, the way it was on his old site. I can’t put too many links in the one comment on here so i’m posting all 4 separately starting with this: https://indyposterboy.scot/
https://indyposterboy.scot/category/a5-flyers/
https://indyposterboy.scot/?s=A6
https://indyposterboy.scot/what-is-the-powergrab/
My best guess is that:
1. Yousaf wins the confidence vote but only with the support of Ash Regan and the Presiding Officer. All assuming that all MSPs are available to vote on the day and aren’t detained elsewhere.
2. But the support of certain SNP colleagues is conditional on Yousaf resigning, so that he can leave office to some extent on his own terms. Humza opts to go out on the “high” of winning the confidence vote rather than resigning before the vote.
3. DFM becomes acting FM until a leadership election can be held.
4. The Greens, having got their revenge, will make it clear that they will abstain or support the Government in the Labour confidence vote, which will then be withdrawn. Any concern over Kate Forbes becoming leader will be offset by the fact that the Greens have the opportunity to vote against her becoming FM.
@Tommo
You may be a cydwladwr but with all respect to you if you don’t live in Scotland you don’t get to say that a parliament we voted for is a waste of money. Those with long political memories may remember tens of billions wasted on any number of Westminster projects more often than not in IT or defence. In our whizz-bang technological era wasting money is what govts do a lot and we citizens have no say in how this money is spent. When we do have a say then the money is as well spent as any other govt function.
Diolch a nos da
Looks like Scenario A is now in play…
https://www.thenational.scot/news/24284345.humza-yousaf-to-resign-snp-leader-first-minister/
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/humza-yousaf-set-to-resign-as-survival-hopes-fade-rwr2f5p0j
“We know the realm of absurdity has reached it’s absolute limit when Jenny Gilruth is touted as a possible successor”
Why are you so surprised? She was part of “the jolly boys and girls” club, wasn’t she? She clearly has had the puppet “training” of rigour.
If she is selected as leader, then it will be clear what entity has been pulling the strings of the SNP and therefore what has been frustrating Scotland’s independence since 2015.
It has started to become very obvious that Scotland was subjected to a USA controlled regime change immediately after the 2014 referendum.
This leads me to be even more convinced ‘yes’ actually won the 2014 referendum.
“On Sunday night, The Times reported that Yousaf had concluded he would have to step down, and may do so on Monday.
It cited a source close to the First Minister as saying: “Humza knows what’s best for the country and the party. He is first party activist and a party man, and that’s why he knows it’s time for someone else.”
The paper further reported that senior SNP figures had been told of Yousaf’s decision. Although the timing of the resignation is unclear, the reports will pile immense pressure on the SNP leader to move aside.
The early favourites to replace Yousaf, who became First Minister in late March 2023, are Education Secretary Jenny Gilruth and former finance secretary Kate Forbes”
https://archive.ph/D0NBv The National article finishes with “However, reports said that a deal with Alba, in any form, would not have been popular with the majority of SNP members, making it a very difficult proposition for Yousaf”.
The Times https://archive.ph/sqsBu#selection-2935.0-2935.223 goes with the heading “Humza Yousaf set to resign as survival hopes fade” and the final paragraph states “He now relies on either a deal with Salmond’s Alba Party or the securing of a single MSP from another opposition party. Talks are understood to be under way with individual Green MSPs in an effort not to be reliant on Alba”.
Humza/SNP look likely to slap away the hand of Alba again…. Can’t trust the MSM stories/speculation though…it looks like they were reading Wings and just went with option A. We’ll find out soon enough!
As an eternal optimist, (god knows how after Sturgeon’s ineptitude), I still believe there’s a wildcard option that any election, even a Scottish Election, could be transformed into a plebiscite election on Independence, and that becoming a realistic possibility would have a seismic effect on the voting public. Scotland wouldn’t be voting for any party or individual, but on the binary issue of Independence.
Though conceivable, that would be white knuckle ride and any “emergency” push for Independence would suffer the great disadvantage of the wasted decade when the SNP did the square root of fk all to prepare the ground work. Could we cover all that ground at the gallop?
Even if the binary issue of Independence won a majority, (and this means all candidates abandoning parties and standing under Scotland United banner), the resulting Administration would somehow need to deliver “Cold Turkey” Independence’s from a standing start, in the teeth of blisteringly derogatory Unionist propaganda.
It IS possible for Scotland to move quickly and elect an Administration on the binary issue of Independence, and there’s at least a credible chance it might even coalesce into an effective body which can bring down the Union, but the burden of what happened next would be the mother of all baptisms of fire.
Negotiations which would normally take years would be compressed into months, probably even weeks, and thanks to SNP’s decade of decadent inaction, the Indy furnace isn’t even lit.
I think Scotland could swing that vote, and bring power back to Scotland, robust and untouchable behind Scotland’s sovereign Constitution, but the bigger challenge is assembling the team of elite Indy Stormtroopers with the backbone and determination to see this through.
Sadly, I fear this is all a pipe dream, because the SNP is riven with petulant incompetents who have neither the discipline nor the intellect to run a bath, nevermind steer the resurrection of an Independent Scotland through a maelstrom of resistance.
Paradoxically, it ISN’T because our Scotland United Government would be padded out with dumbledorks like Wishart, Sturgeon,, Blackford, and all the other cabbage patch devolutionists. These dribbling skittermouths could be weeded out at selection. But the painful truth is, our team of crack and constitutionally adept shock troops would be comprised of unknown faces who would have gel and work like a well oiled machine from the very instant it came into being.
Not ALL unknown faces, of course, but my shortlist isn’t very long.
Salmond. Yes.
Salyers. Yes.
Regan. Yes.
Cherry. Yes.
Comrie. Yes.
Walker. Yes.
Hanvey. Yes.
MacAskill. Yes.
Boswell. Yes.
*Apolitical Policy Groups.
SALVO. Yes.
Liberation. Yes.
Common Weal. Yes.
AUOB. Yes.
* Not aligned to any party.
Who’d be in your dream team of Scotland United superstars?
Keep it positive. Who would you have, don’t dwell on who you’d leave out in the cold. Let’s pick ourselves an A team.
And just to add…
IF he did the right thing, set the SNP aside and cleared the way for SNP voters to fully embrace the Scotland United binary manifesto… No SNP candidates, everybody standing on the Scotland United ticket…
IF he did that, I’d give Humza Yousaf a by to the next round too. But doing that, would take guts, and I don’t think he’s got any. It’s about Leadership.
Nevermind. It’s nearly sunrise and I’ll be waking up soon…
It looks this morning if the game is up for Hapless Humza. According ti GMS he us “considering resignation “.
Flags- WHITE!
“Breeks @ 0445” , I like your optimism Sir , “ who would be in your dream team of Scotland United superstars “? Methinks your very fine shortlist would have to be augmented with some “ friendly” European superstars ( on loan) . Perhaps we should invite some competent neighbours ( Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania etc all small successful independent European states ) , how they govern / run successful dynamic economies / competent governments ). Why has our elected “ independence MP’s and MSP’s not established shadow “ reserved ministries “ ie defence , foreign affairs, employment , Home office , etc and sought advice on competent administration of the same , from friendly neighbours ahead of our Re establishment of sovereign independence? It would also bring some semblance of confidence to the people of Scotland that at least preparations were underway for the End Goal ?
Dutch auction on Hapless Humza’s tenure.
The auctioneer’s gavel hovers:
Going ….
Going ….
Overtures from both SNP and Greens to each other.
Humza resigns. Conservative motion goes.
Behind the scenes, Greens get assurances that new leader won’t be Forbes. SNP have form in ensuring a successful candidate.
BHA has gone, appeasing SNP who were sick of the Greens. But Greens support SNP in Labour vote.
A minority government, with tacit understanding, if not formal between SNP and Greens.
Hope not.
I think the short list published by Breeks is a good start and I would have Andy Wightman and Angus Brendan MacNeil in the mix. I think we would need to wade through the current crop of SNP in office and pick up the odd one with expertise Like Ivan McKee and Michelle Thomson and Fergus Ewing. I would also like to see the poor crofter get his stoat coat and a seat in the lords not because he deserves it just to see the look on Pete Wishart’s face as he is pipped at the post in his quest to be the first SNP lord.
The U.K. media and Westminster parties get their stories and options right here.
They have nothing between them other than waving their wee union flags.
Not negotiating with Alba after bending backwards for the hare brained Greens is a rubber stamp on avoiding any focus on independence.
Does he even need to announce that he gave Alba any concessions?
If he was a Tory he would be sending out squirrels to show how Labour in Wales have the worst NHS in the U.K., no free travel or university education, personal care or prescriptions etc.
SNP -Send the Rev £10 per month and follow his advice and feel like you deserve it.
Two day delay but I hoped this would have ran all week,Quavers are in, no pocorn left at our local.The Daily R (welcome to Scotland) has it now. Honest John Swinney to step in,that should improve the country,..
Enjoy your week.
“you all hate me anyway so who cares?”
Aha! I see a way out.
Hate is illegal. Perhaps Yousaf has been playing several moves ahead all along.
Piers Morgan making an absolute tit out of himself here. Comments are amusing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vlLubLH5QfE&ab_channel=PiersMorganUncensored
Stravaiger says:
“Flags- WHITE!”
Heh!! You’d have to have a heart of stone not to laugh at this. Bravo ?
@Hatuey says: 28 April, 2024 at 9:51 pm
“You all know I’m right”
Sure. Invasion fleet – check. Boots on ground – check.
I’ve made a small fortune backing your predictions, and I’m loving it.
Keep up the good work.
The Anglosphere never ceases to self congratulate on being better than the rest.
It seems, however, easier to get rid of an incompetent dictator, by the customary direct action means, than a notionally democratically elected president or prime minister, no matter how aberrant in habits or skills.
TURABDIN
Ignored says:
29 April, 2024 at 8:34 am
The Anglosphere never ceases to self congratulate on being better than the rest.
Even when their arrogance and stupidity lead to humiliating defeats, they simply go into denial mode. Can’t fool all the people all of the time.
@Mark Beggan says: 28 April, 2024 at 6:09 pm
“Remember what happened after the the Reichstag Fire!”
Don’t you be putting ideas in people’s heads, Mark.
Memories are remarkably short on Wings BTL, but as recently as 4 weeks ago, there was a steady drip feed of posts indicating that some of what happened after the Reichstag Fire would be very popular indeed with some posters.
As for that excrescence soiling Scotland’s capital, burning it down is too good for it. I’d make it a permanent hostel for the homeless, until such time as our “government” makes sure that no Scot can ever be involuntarily homeless ever again.
Meantime, our “government” could meet in an open field somewhere. That would concentrate their minds on the job they were elected to do, and the problems they were elected to solve.
On news this morning Humza has opted for the short straw again!!!!
You have to laugh at the greens these lovely inclusive equality driven social inclusive lovies refusing to work with Forbs because she holds christian views.
Not all bigots wear an orange sash
Here’s a curious development. Jenny Gilruth has purged her Holyrood, Register of Interests of any mention of her visit to Washington under the State Department’s International Visitors Leadership Program in 2016. It was there now it ain’t. Curiouser and curiouser.
So we had the Devolution we all demanded and it led to this. It’s cost an awful lot of money to become a laughing stock.
Talk about Banquo’s ghost at the feast … “Honest” (who says irony is dead) John Swinney may be brought back in some “Night of the Dead” style remake should Mr Yousaf decide to spend more time with his (or someone’s) family.
Breeks @ 4:45 am
“Let’s pick ourselves an A team.”
Lets not forget the many UK-appointed civil servants and ‘colonial functionaries’ who would still be heading up Scotland’s several hundred institutions, and who would now be tasked with implementing the decisions of a new independent Scottish Parliament and its ‘A team’ of political figureheads.
Any leaders of Scotland’s institutions would also be required to take a new oath of allegiance anely tae a soverane Scottish people. If thay cannae or winnae dae so, then they would need to be replaced by Scots willing to take the oath.
https://www.barrheadboy.com/independents-for-independence-are-scotlands-liberators/
You have not covered what I believe to be the most likely outcome. Yousaf resigns, the Tory motion falls away but the government (even though no one can tell what it is) survives the Labour vote. With Yousaf gone, the Greens and Alba will both abstain on the Labour motion even though it makes no logical sense with regard to their stated positions. It makes political sense. It is a good idea to have a government beholden to you and in each case that is the best way to achieve that outcome. Yes they stand revealed as unprincipled politicos but hey what’s new
Shug @8:59
Top bloke.
Belter of a follow up might be to make Nicola interim leader and, if y’all go the Scotland Utd/ Indy now route, re-inject a bit of cockiness from the good old days by putting the list party top of it under the name:
Ash Regan for FM
Or…
He resigns, the greens vote with the snp in the remaining VONC and the government carries on. The snp now need a new leader and the greens state it has to be someone they like or they’ll call a VONC, well everyone else has so why not them too.
The government continues but with the snp now confirmed as Harvey and Slater’s puppets.
I’m not finding the current story very interesting I hope we get back to ‘true crime’ stories soon.
I want stories with arrests, jail time, charges for embezzlement perjury, malfeasance and gender changes. Hello Petunia!
I’ve solved my issues with archive.is I’ve ditched it and now use archive.ph.
See it works!
https://archive.ph/sqsBu#selection-2935.0-2935.223
A close friend said: “Humza knows what’s best for the country and the party. He is first party activist and a party man, and that’s why he knows it’s time for someone else.”
I wonder if that’s the friend whose wife had an affair during lock-down’
Is adultery a crime? Maybe a hate crime?
Was the SNP governance review ever completed?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-65277808
I quite fancy the idea that everything lines up to beat the votes but the first minister gets his dates muddled up and attends buisness elswhere perhaps at an embassy or somthing thereby losing due to his own abstention.
“And ALBA supporting the clown is just losing another chance t…..”
Nahhh got to offer the figleaf in the full knowledge he can’t survive, while people still think the SNP want’s indi, it’s the right thing to do.
https://archive.ph/xZ4wW
Everyone knows about “Liberté, egalité, fraternité.” But it is laïcité that defines the most ferociously contested battle lines in contemporary France. The term has come to express a uniquely French insistence that religion, along with religious symbols and dress, should be absent from the public sphere.
I like that idea.
I do not want to know about Humza Yousaf’s or Kate Forbes’ religion. I certainly do not want Muslim prayers being said in Bute House.
So scenario A with added capitulation of the SNP to the greens by ensuring the next leader is Swinney, Gilruth or someone other gender woowoo nutter.
The question now is does the like of Fergus Ewing sit by and watch this happen, vote against the government or defect to Alba?
@Vivian O’Blivion (9.03) –
Lesley Cameron (on twitter) says the relevant entry about Gilruth is still there.
https://twitter.com/Elsee29/status/1784886942259147212
when I looked at humza I always thought : ” … somewhere, there is a till -unmanned- in a 24hr newsagents … ”
(brings knife to a gunfight)
I expect aamer anwar to sue scotland for racism
what could make it interesting is if humza has been boiling down the bleach all weekend and made himself an explosive belt
– nice resignation statement : ALLAH AKBAR
and strikes a blow for the global jihad against the kuffar and the zionists; the scottish press finally get whats coming
if the greens are the de facto rulers of scotland now, then not only am i “far right” but also taliban
– we are all the taliban now
Mia says:
‘I am going for option A’
Well done, you even beat Rev S by a short head.
With runners B, C, & D having failed to complete the course, all ‘A’ must do now is jump the final hurdle in the VONC.
But even if the administration somehow manages to survive this week’s vote – and bring down runner ‘A’ – it is surely damaged beyond repair and cannot survive much longer.
“Any leaders of Scotland’s institutions would also be required to take a new oath of allegiance anely tae a soverane Scottish people.”
And preferably know at least a wee bit o’ the Scots leid.
Thae cuid aw be sent on courses payed fer by an actual Scottish government and at nae expense tae thaimsels fer tae learn a wee bit mair o’ the Scots language – and Scots history tae hit the same time.
D all the way, D for Dunces, Devo, Done with…
Anybody know where to watch Yousaf’s speech today live? Thanks in advance.
Rab Clark @ 11:15
Lesley is viewing the archive version, it is immutable (obviously). The “live” Register of Interest that most folk will view has been doctored. The 2016 IVLP trip was registered under Foreign Trips, this is now blank. Gilruth’s & Dugdale’s registers were identical. There are technical reasons why this is highly unlikely to be possible in reality (inductees are distributed across the States with differing costs for internal flights).
selling Scotland by the pound :
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/12535801/humza-yousaf-red-faced-ribbon-bungle-glasgow/
kismet
– while this is going to be a fun day, let’s get real about what has really happened …
The destruction of the indy movement, is, absolutely, a production of the UK spooks; it has all their fingerprints and technical aspects. It was done with economy, it all came through one person, Sturgeon.
Her own idea of indy might have been lukewarm to begin with, but when faced with blackmail over your closet lesbian status and your lavender marriage, it was an easy switch to move towards identity politics, particular all the “rainbow” activities. She was surrounded by civil servants who all worked for the UK and reported on her every week.
You don’t need to have everyone on the payroll, you just need a few people in the right places – Sturgeon systematically, off her own bat, sets out to protect herself, ridding the party of any potential rivals and stuffing the order with her own creatures, the trans rights nutters, the queer activists – toxic, unattractive, people which drove out all the decent and competent members. Now, they are losing support and money, but I suspect there is some substantial and covert source of funds, as yet undiscovered; losing all those subs, or rich supporters, never bothered them, why?
The party was hollowed out; and when the opportunity, on the flimsiest of precedents, arises to eliminate forever the one politician who overshadows you on every measure, you take it. Here there must have been a substantial conspiracy, but in the end a jury of ordinary people saved Salmond. Remember that blackmail and sexual smears is the #1 spook technique.
– now people are “noticing” and the complete lack of any attempt to use brexit as a means to force another referendum, at minimum, is the big “tell”, the smoking gun.
As far as the spooks think, this is job done – SNP ruined, rotten from the inside, a walking zombie corpse, full of grifters and people in denial; the indy question is kicked down the road for at least a decade, by which time I will have moved up a couple of grades in the service and it is someone elses problem … the important thing to note here is that nowhere is there any reason to “look after” Sturgeon anymore. Why should they? She might have thought she was solid, or was even being groomed for a top slot (see her talk to the CFR) – but she wasn’t and now, out of office, she is back to being a nobody; she doesn’t have any leverage against anyone – “the people I sold out my country to, stabbed me in the back … ” – not a good look, is it? Also, her being “hung out to dry” supports the notion she never worked for the spooks in the first place, nice touch.
What protection remains for Sturgeon comes from the cops and judges she gave nice jobs to, mostly “wimmin”; we shall see.
This is why you should never take the deal, sellout to the bad guys, for they will cut you loose once you are no longer required, or become a liability and FGS don’t try to become a “novelist” or start talking to journalists, for you will one day, get very sad, and take a lot of pills; and the coroner will say “he took a lot of pills, for he was sad”.
People have tried to blame the current chaos / shitstorm / binfire on the SNP alone, or even the Scots electorate, but this is false – these events were made to happen, helped along. And you must remember the measure of “good spookery” is not being noticed, not being obvious, making it all look above board, natural events or accidents; there is an economy of effort, even simply to save money – if it was too obvious, they would not be very good. Even now, you have to stand back and squint your eyes a bit – it fits, at least it fits better than the alternative … Sturgeon really tried her hardest to go for independence, but was simply thwarted, tried to stop brexit out of her common goodness, had a masterplan, did a lot of things she forgot about, had nothing to do with what happened to Salmond, never touched any dodgy money, never knew what her husband was up to … and so on. It doesn’t make sense – it makes her sound like a bit of a scatterbrain “what am I like?!” when in fact she is a skilled political operator, a control freak who liked to know everything that was going on.
– she will go down as one of the great tr41tors of history. Alas, we will only get the real story 30 years from now, longtime too late.
Watch live…
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-scotland-68918348
Monday Monday
I don’t like Mondays
Blue Monday
Manic Monday
Rainy days and Mondays
@Confused
Alternatively the whole bunch of criminals, sexual deviants, parasites and snake oil salesmen ran out of road
It’s always someone else isn’t it?
Wow, even John Swinney doesnt want to touch this shitty stick so Humza left holding it. Utter farce.
Mad to see the devotees out there giving it “He did a brilliant job”…
Dear “Confused” re: your diatribe on Scotland’s woes being caused by “spooks”. Are you aware that treatments are available for paranoia?
Am i missing something can the rest of the parties just put in a VONC against the sitting gov if they are minority
Ie say tories win next hollyrood election but dont get a majority and say D.Ross is leader can the other parties put in a VONC as well.
@Neil Singleton
Unfortunately the remedy for spooks carries a life sentence
You apologists aren’t kidding anyone btw
No one’s doubting there are halfwits at work, but they are definitely cajoled along certain paths
@Vivian O’Blivion (11.31) –
Cheers.
😉
@mia 1.28 “It has started to become very obvious that Scotland was subjected to a USA controlled regime change immediately after the 2014 referendum.
This leads me to be even more convinced ‘yes’ actually won the 2014 referendum”
I agree Mia.
Grouse beater had an essay on the destruction of Scotland whilst nothing like the destruction in the M/E is still an orchestrated event by the globalists
@confused (11.54) –
I c&ped your comment to Twitterland.
Hope you’ll repost on the newest thread later.
Hoots!
😉
He,s scone & i dont mean to Perth , what a blawhard full of Pish n Piffle.
John Swinney holding his cards close to his breast
USA controlled regime change?
Initiated by the Blessed Obama (PBUH) presumably?
And they presumably put useless in charge?!
I think I am beginning to work out why mainstream Scots rejected independence
It’s clowns all the way down
Leader of the SNP. Not brown!
Greetings to all of you North of the boarder.
Coverage of your ongoing political tribulations are being well covered. Naga on the national broadcaster R5 introduced us to an expert on Scotland Politics from Southampton University to explain how we got here. That was during my bathroom visit.
Subsequently updated on GBEEBIES that the prospect of Independence ever for North of the boarder was over. As was also covered by Sky the chance of freeedom North of the boarder was not just over , gleefully rejected on the same day King Charles III is raring to get back to work against doctors advice in contrast to those on PIP and such .
Think Humdum is actually enjoying the most attention he has ever had in his life . Since that misunderstood event at his prestigious Private School. S’when the loathing for white started .