Much of the commentariat and media has been in a froth for the last 24 hours about the supposed failure of the nation’s pollsters to predict the Conservative victory. This, for example, was Labour’s highly-paid election guru David Axelrod:
But the truth is that the polls – just like the heavily-maligned exit poll which turned out to be bang on the money – got nothing wrong. The people interpreting them did.
We’ve done another poll in conjunction with our dear chums at Panelbase, readers, which we think will be the last full-size Scottish one before the polls open. You may already have seen their headline voting-intention stats, but if not they’re below.
Those numbers suggest, depending which electoral forecaster you feed them into, over 50 seats for the SNP. The poll delivered some extremely interesting results, but we’re going to tease you and hold most of them over until tomorrow, because it’ll actually be a really slow news day.
(September 18 last year was one of the most miserable days of our lives, and we’re not talking about the result. It just seemed to drag on forever and ever, with nothing happening until past midnight. This way there’ll at least be something to read.)
But as a little taster, here’s a fascinating info-nugget.
Greg Moodie’s Election Dissection, a compilation of splendid cartoon strips from The National, Bella Caledonia and elsewhere, is available to order now.
100%Yes on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “A deal has been agreed Peter would admit A and B-Z would be ignored. What no one expect was a…” Jul 2, 18:58
100%Yes on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “Sarah, is it a case no one is prepared to put their name to it!!” Jul 2, 18:51
Mike on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “Rev, curious to know what options are on the table? Much like the Indy Referendum and WM repeatedly saying no,…” Jul 2, 18:47
Scotspine on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “COPFS are simply going to tough this out. They dont answer to anyone……well maybe except some folk in Thames House,…” Jul 2, 18:47
Potace on Tuning In The Shine: “Martin Guissler jumping to the defence of St Nicola. Colour me shocked” Jul 2, 18:33
joolz on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “£660k+ was donated and acknowledged. The money has gone. John Swinney says it was spent. John Swinney refuses to show…” Jul 2, 18:25
Karen on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “So put in a complaint naming Nicoliar, LLB, who knows what ring-fenced means, and has been taught how to read…” Jul 2, 18:13
MP on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “Quite – if you raise money to ‘ring fence’ it for a specific purpose, referendum campaign, and then you decide…” Jul 2, 18:05
Iain mhor on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “Oh, so they uncovered evidence of embezzlement then. Well that’s interesting. Certainly I’ve read the sentence a couple of times…” Jul 2, 17:37
Andy Wiltshire on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “I see you have had another anonymous communication. Unless of course there really is a Mr Enquiry Point.” Jul 2, 17:36
GM on Tuning In The Shine: “That has come into my head ss well Ian. He evidently had a good job in Banking (international banking evidently).…” Jul 2, 17:30
sarah on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “Thank you, Rev. At least you’ve got the facts at your fingertips and it’s a straightforward matter so you don’t…” Jul 2, 17:28
Rev. Stuart Campbell on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: ““If you say ‘The purpose for which the money was raised was to fund an independence campaign at some unknown…” Jul 2, 17:28
Tartan Tory on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “I’m paraphrasing here: “We know exactly what’s gone on and we don’t want to pursue it because….. ALL Hail Saint…” Jul 2, 17:27
Frank Waring on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “I think the problem will be this: If you say ‘The purpose for which the money was raised was to…” Jul 2, 17:27
Rev. Stuart Campbell on Tuning In The Shine: “Wow, I was a LONG way out, then.” Jul 2, 17:17
Hatey McHateface on Tuning In The Shine: ““no proper newspapers support independence” Ouch! That “proper” will sting over at The National.” Jul 2, 17:13
Effijy on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “Unbelievable! A completely insulting reply that ignores the blatant fact that a crime has been committed and the person or…” Jul 2, 17:08
MARTIN on Fob, Fob, Fobbing Along: “I think a Judicial Review might end up being the only way to prove it was fraud if COPFS and…” Jul 2, 17:08
Jas on Tuning In The Shine: “Not long before ‘Strictly’ calls?” Jul 2, 16:12
gastrocnemius on Tuning In The Shine: “The anglicised version of Mac Giolla Bháin is McElwaine, with the emphasis on the Mc, not the El” Jul 2, 16:04
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on Strike A Pose, There’s Nothing To It: “Confused (2 July 9.59am) writes: “Spook HQ in Glasgow is Kentigern House” ————————- KENTIGERN etymology. Saint’s formal name, also affectionately…” Jul 2, 16:02
Young Lochinvar on Tuning In The Shine: “Er ye go, the assertions been made so over to you John Swinney – move into and live in a…” Jul 2, 15:52
joolz on Tuning In The Shine: ““John Swinney would live in a cave for independence” but he won’t be honest about money. He can’t claim the…” Jul 2, 15:48
Ian Smith on Tuning In The Shine: “I cannot understand why Beattie stood again, (never mind why anyone would vote for him again) if not that he…” Jul 2, 15:35
Effijy on Tuning In The Shine: “Could we enquire why Guissler didn’t investigate or ask his bbc colleagues or bosses? Because they are anti Scottish and…” Jul 2, 15:33
Shug on Tuning In The Shine: “The big question for nationalists is Why did the MSM protect the SNP Why do legal professionals at the highest…” Jul 2, 15:27
Alf Baird on Tuning In The Shine: ““don’t think any of it got “censored”” At least you got a Brit State platform Rev, congrats. I offered Geissler…” Jul 2, 15:23
Liza Laine on Tuning In The Shine: “Upton Sinclair explained this ~100 years ago: “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary…” Jul 2, 15:18
Mark Beggan on Tuning In The Shine: “Good point. The only interview I seen was when he was asked about the impact it had on his life…” Jul 2, 14:37
