The polls were not wrong
Much of the commentariat and media has been in a froth for the last 24 hours about the supposed failure of the nation’s pollsters to predict the Conservative victory. This, for example, was Labour’s highly-paid election guru David Axelrod:
But the truth is that the polls – just like the heavily-maligned exit poll which turned out to be bang on the money – got nothing wrong. The people interpreting them did.
Here are the last 25 polls before the vote, from UK Polling Report:
As you can see, the average of them gave the Tories a small lead. Their vote share ranged from a low of 32 to a high of 36. Labour’s, meanwhile, ranged from a low 30 to a high 35. (Tellingly, both Labour’s low and high are lower than those of the Tories.)
The standard margin of error for 1000 respondents is 3%. The actual final result was 36% for the Tories and 29% for Labour. One doesn’t have be a particularly skilled mathematician to note that that is within the margin of error of the range of fluctuation.
What that tells us beyond any dispute is that the polls themselves weren’t wrong. The error was in the projections which analysts DERIVED from the polls. And there some pretty obvious reasons for that.
One is “shy Tory syndrome”, a well-known phenomenon whereby people are simply too embarrassed to admit doing something which is perceived as selfish and callous, but will nevertheless do it in the privacy of the polling booth. Pollsters try to compensate for this, but it’s a near-impossible task – you simply can’t measure when someone is to all intents and purposes lying to you.
Another is the incumbency effect, which tends to benefit both sitting governments and individual candidates. (Even though Labour were trounced in Scotland, it was probably a major contributor to Ian Murray clinging onto his Edinburgh South seat as a diligent and hard-working local MP.)
A third is the Kinnock Factor, by which even though people say they favour a party on the basis of its policies (and probably do), when it comes down to the crunch they think about the person who’s going to be Prime Minister and change their minds.
And finally there’s tactical voting, which is similar to the Kinnock Factor in that a person might, for example, ideally want to vote UKIP, but in a seat where it’s clear on election day they have no chance of winning will switch at the last minute to another party, eg to the Tories in order to ensure they get an EU referendum.
As you can see from the links in the above paragraphs, we’ve told you about all of those things over the last couple of years. More than a year ago we put them all together and concluded that “David Cameron and George Osborne will be feeling very confident indeed of a second term in office”.
Nothing in the polls actually conflicted with that analysis. Only projections which paid too much attention to the bare numbers, indulged in the dangerous fiction of “uniform swing” warned of by Peter Kellner of YouGov, and made far too many assumptions which ignored local circumstances in individual seats, came to the wrong conclusions.
Lord Ashcroft’s polling, which used larger samples and paid far more attention to such issues, found substantial Tory leads far more often than anyone else. Just 10 days before the election he published one that got the final result almost exactly right:
But such findings were dismissed as outliers by a media far more interested in a narrative about hung parliaments and dodgy deals, because those are more interesting to write about and sell more newspapers, as well as requiring much less in the way of research and analysis.
All the same, as we’ve already noted, the standard polling still wasn’t actually wrong. The raw figures were within the margin of error of the final result, and as accurate as possible under the limiting criteria listed in this article. The reality was in there if you chose to look for it properly.
David Axelrod et al are throwing bricks from inside a greenhouse. What we saw in this election – except on Wings, of course, where we’ve been telling our readers that the Tories would win since 2012 – was a failure of analysis, not a failure of polling.
It fitted in with the anti-Scots Jockalypse MSM to talk of hung parliament and deals
Right on the money.
The spads and media had their own political and corporate axes to grind and in the end commentary/shit stirring became more important than objective analysis. This is how far the media especially, have fallen from the remit of informative journalism.
They screwed up, simples.
Admitting that though? Not any time soon.
Everything you said there, Rev, is spot on. I must admit, when I saw the predictions on Thursday night, I frowned at them. Probably not so much at the Tories being within a handful of seats of a majority, but the 58 out of 59 seats of the SNP. That led me to believe …’Nah! That can’t be right. Mid 40’s, yeah! But 58 …no chance!’
Does that mean that I need to take Professor Curtice more seriously in future? Probably…
Months ago I wrote we should expect a Tory second term. I repeated it three days before the election here on Wings.
Our English cousins love masochism.
You could see how many believed they just had to be punished with austerity because it was ‘all the fault of those foreigners and non-whites among us taking our jobs and welfare.’ (Not the US-UK led bank fraud.) And to vote Tory meant lower taxes.
In other words, successive administrations, egged on by the racist Ukip, sadly to a great extent by Labour so’s not to alienate voters, agreed that that scenario was true.
Simply put: The doctrine was, get rid of non-English, cut welfare, and the sun will come out of the clouds again.
But as this topic makes plain, the press preferred the drama of a neck-and-neck chariot race to the finishing line. That allowed them to depict one party as spendthrift, loving multiculturalism, the other party as careful businessmen throwing perks to the poor.
In England, the City, business and corporations won.
Yup. If only more people had fully understood that Tories would get back in last year.
Nicola made her first post-election ‘We March to London!’ speech surrounded by her troops, backed by Scotland’s engineering might – the Forth Rail Bridge.
Then I remembered the image in my avatar.
🙂
Which is why there will always be a market/need for Wings.
Top notch,insightful and devastatingly accurate.
I’ll be watching what you write about holyrood elections next year and eu referendum! Well done for getting it spot on. Pity labour didn’t listen to you
Yea i thought they were pretty close myself Stu ,and i know during indyref we gave them a hard time over their polls but they were right about that as well unfortunately.
I couldnt understand why they were giving prof Curtis a hard time over the exit poll its not like he made it up ,all he could do was show what the exit poll said.
As for Axlerod fuck off back to America you and your right wing neo-liberal pals are not wanted and should not be allowed to participate in a UK election,we know your plan its to make the whole of the UK political system right wing like you have in the USA ,got news for you scumbags not if we can stop it.
Which strongly suggests that most print & broadcast news is contrived, exaggerated & even made up in an attempt to attract readers/viewers even if the ‘facts’ turn out to be completely false.
It does seem like the British public is largely happy to be spoon fed with propaganda that actually works to serve the needs of the Establishment & it’s commercial minded allegiances.
One of the main things to take away from the overall results is that every single voter in scotland could have voted Labour and we would STILL have got an unwanted tory government dictating to scotland from westminster.
Better Together? Hardly.
The Tories won only in England, nowhere else. How can that outcome be remotely seen by the Tories and their chums in the right-wing Tory press as somehow a legitimate UK Govt.? They have moral authority only to govern England. But while Scotland remains chained to this Union, Cameron & Co ignore Scotland’s voice, our elected SNP representation, at their peril. They ought toi realise by now that the ‘Scottish Problem’ is not going to go away any time soon and that their beloved UK is within one more plebiscite from breaking apart. The only hope for any form of a UK continuing is for the UK Govt to give in to SNP demands for Devo-Max with phased-in FFR.
Enough Scots might settle for that arrangement Fail to deliver and the UK truly is finished. No ifs, no buts. It is over. Surely Cameron must see that? I fnot then he is actually an idiot and not the devious b*****d politician many think him to be.
Game on.
And to cap it all off, several Labour figures (eg, Alan Johnston) now saying that the party needs to get back to a more right-wing Blairite approach, to appeal to ‘aspirational’ voters in the Midlands and southern England marginals.
Yep, that’ll go down well in Scotland.
[…] Much of the commentariat and media has been in a froth for the last 24 hours about the supposed failure of the nation’s pollsters to predict the Conservative victory. This, for example, was Labour’s highly-paid election guru David Axelrod: […]
Bang on the button Rev.
Where would we be without you eh ?? ( Huge thumbs up )
I have some sympathy for the English. They are in for a torrid time but they made their beds now they have to live with it.
I cannot see Scotland accepting a tory govt for another 5 years. The Scottish govt might soften some of the blows coming but we have loudly told them their policies are not wanted.
Independence is the only way we ever get the govt we want. England always gets the govt it wants.
As a member of the SNP i will ask for REF2 mandate for the SE 2016.
56 mp’s against over 500 unionist mp’s means our voice will be drowned out. And we cannot trust English Labour to back us up, they’re to busy stabbing each other in the back.
The interesting thing will be how No voters now feel. They badly needed a Labour govt and are wiped out now. Who can they turn to….. ?
Intesting times ahead Stu and fellow Wingers.
really really really proud of Scotland today.
Also interesting, why didn’t Murphy, McBloater etc, react to these polls, its what they get paid megabucks for?
Manifestos didn’t appear til the last minute. Dinosaurs didn’t see catastrophic asteroid but what were they playing at in the SLab bunker, is what I would be asking if I had just lost to a 20 year old student.
Breaky news?
“Britain’s biggest political punter, who once won £193,000 on a Scottish referendum wager, has lost £205,500 after incorrectly guessing that this year’s General Election would result in a hung parliament.
The gambler placed the £200,000 bet at odds of 2/9 and then added a further £5,500, but unfortunately lost out when it was declared that the Conservatives had won an unexpected majority.”
Should have read WoS!
Tweet earlier today from Duncan Hothersall:-
“Labour is in good health. People just disagreed with us.”
The 20th century started off bemoaning the ‘Irish’ problem now the in the 21st century it’s the ‘Scottish’ problem.
Auld Rock
Rev wrote:
“What we saw in this election – except on Wings, of course, where we’ve been telling our readers that the Tories would win since 2012 – was a failure of analysis, not a failure of polling.”
Yes, indeed, and the BBC (Breakfast) were still at it throughout their morning election analysis coverage today when Naga Munchetty quizzically, and with a straight face, enquired, and to nobody in particular, “why did the pollsters get it so wrong?”
It then became time to exit the building when they switched to Bill Turnbull, from outside Holyrood, who had David Clegg from the DR and Claire Black of The Hootsman with him for their “expert analysis.”
Expert analysis?
I nearly gave myself a bloody hernia, i couldn’t stop laughing.
[…] The polls were not wrong […]
Interesting point about Ian Murray.
He is also the only labour MP to openly oppose trident and austerity.
I do not think his survival is a co-incidence.
@Democracy Reborn……
I seen Alan Johnstones quotes. Unbelievable betrayal of the working class and emphasised all that is still wrong with “New ” Labour.
@ Auld Rock
What are the odds – 2022?
The austerity argument is quite easy for MSM to push. Their comparison of the economy with a household (a la thatcher) is very simplistic and plausible and people swallowed it. it’s one I have been trying to unpick with some people I would regard as being intelligent.
Once that theory is debunked they just go into anti-snp mode about something else.
Incidentally,someone on twitter trying to get prof steve keen up for an evening discussion about austerity. That would be worth going to..
Interesting times ahead when snp members are debarred from the house for not swearing the oath of allegance! Hahaha!
Greetings from Nuremberg!
While it may be true to say that the error margin on 1000 polled voters is 3%, this error margin decreases as the square root of the number polled. Thus the error margin on a combination of 10 suchs polls will be around 1%.
I haven’t analysed the above poll list in any detail, but I suspect the combination of them was a long way adrift of the actual result. In any case, don’t the pollsters “correct” their raw figures (for “balance”) before they publish them?
“While it may be true to say that the error margin on 1000 polled voters is 3%, this error margin decreases as the square root of the number polled. Thus the error margin on a combination of 10 suchs polls will be around 1%.”
But 10 polls of 1000 people != one poll of 10,000 people. That’s one of the reasons why analyses based on subsamples are useless.
Said it after xmas that the tories would win down here, millie had no chance. Wish i had put a bet on. And well done scotland, great result!.
@Democracy reborn – the insight that Thatcher and Tony Blair shared, and which Kinnock did not, was the sheer necessity to appeal to aspirational voters in order to get anywhere. Scotland is different; but in this respect, *how* different? The view of, “I’m all right Jack, keep your hands off my stack” (Pink Floyd) may be more ingrained here than we realise.
Labour politicians made much of appealing to ‘working families’. They did not make much of an appeal to people on benefits; because that would have cost them many more votes than it would have gained.
@Hobbit How Different? you ask. Well, clearly very, very different. A near clean sweep on an anti-austerity meassage, fighting for social justice, eradication of food banks and so on highlights that many people want a dynamic new way of thinking from elected representatives. This is what will be happening in WMinster very soon.
That the Labour party has fallen into the trap of doing the Tories bidding in the referendum coupled with a parroting of the Tory austerity meassage AND voting with them has seen their eradication. This does, of course, lead the way for a new Socialist party to surface from the ashes. But will it?
Apologies for this being off topic but could someone explain to me why Northern Ireland receives more money than Scotland re. the Barnett Formula but it never seems to get a mention.
Additionally as England is allocated money by county and so on Londons share seems to be close to that of Scotlands.
This might be slightly off-topic, but.
Big Dim Jim Murphy is, as he takes every opportunity to remind us, into, if not football then at least the religious/political silliness which surrounds Ra Sellik and the Rangers Tribute Act.
Maybe, just maybe, he is taking his cue from Ally McCoist and hoping to be placed on “gardening leave” on full salary by the Labour Party.
You can never give up on Wings now Rev. You’ve truly found your vocation. I heard Andrew Neil yesterday describe the G.E. result as the high water mark for the SNP. He was wrong of course. The high water mark for the SNP will be when we achieve independence.
I’m still walking on air after that amazing result, and can’t quite believe it yet.
Maybe the SNP should set up a new party down south, the English Party – drop ‘national’ because it’s open to deliberate misrepresentation.
Part of its manifesto will be autonomy for Scotland – and a new Treaty that includes sharing armed forces only in times of invasion. Wars in other lands a matter of separate decision.
Trade would be sacrosanct, of course. Oil might need to be shared in the way of Scotland’s oil fund open to approach for loans should the English Treasury need one. Interest rates … something to think about.
What’s the best site for getting election result info from?
Labour lost the 2015 election five years ago, when they elected Ed Milliband as leader. I remember that night thinking “they have done it again – another Neil Kinnock!”.
That said, I did think that Ed could have just about made it to a minority government, following Nicola’s brilliant performance on the leaders’debate. Enough people in England may have held their noses and voted for Labour working witha progessive SNP. Unfortunately, Ed capitulated to the Tory press and ruled out working with the SNP. What a sad fool.
Heedtracker: The gambler placed the £200,000 bet at odds of 2/9 and then added a further £5,500, but unfortunately lost out when it was declared that the Conservatives had won an unexpected majority….Should have read WoS!”
Saw that, Heedtracker. Had a good laugh. 🙂
Miliband’s car crash on Question Time no doubt contributed to his eventual collapse in England.His Kinnockesque exit stage left just brought into focus how hapless he actually was as a leader.
Lead’s one to the inevitable conclusion that Labour “threw” the election UK wide.
As far as Scotland is concerned amongst the carnage you have to question Labour strategy as far back as the Lamont appointment followed by Murphy and his gang topped off by the Murphy/Izzard stunt in Glasgow.It just didn’t make sense until dawn on Friday.
Scorched earth policy..cut Scotland loose and get back to Blairite shenanigans. It’s the only explanation I can find.
Well done everyone,and a big thank you to everyone in Scotland.
Christ on a bike Amateur Hour doesn’t even come close.
If the mainstream media had any sense they’d be queueing up to offer a job to the guy behind this excellent analysis.
Stu would probably (sensibly) turn them down.
Hobbit, you are right re Labour’s errors. They seem incapable of grasping that these “scroungers” whom they reject so vociferously were by and large hard working families until governments failed them in so feebly resisting the removal of their work. No use in telling an experienced victim of Ravenscraig that he can make £1 an hour in a call centre!
There was no doubt that in the last few weeks the MSN stepped up the anti Scots/SNP rhetoric which seems to have some appeal with your average voter south of the border.You then had Milliband and a potential alliance with the SNP then it was a no brainer.
Its very disappointing to think that many of our neighbours think food banks,austerity which only seems to impact on the poor,trident,zero hour contracts ect are an acceptable price to pay.Self interest is alive and well in the UK.
Thoughts prompted by some of the comments above re Labour.
A Party who were willing to set up “New Labour” will develop a simple solution to their elections problems. They will develop two independent labour parties – a left for Scotland and a right for England. However it will be just window dressing to pull in the innocent.
Be very,very alert when you see the announcement of the new Scottish Labour Party and it’s UNIQUE stance.
@Petra
“Apologies for this being off topic but could someone explain to me why Northern Ireland receives more money than Scotland re. the Barnett Formula but it never seems to get a mention.
Additionally as England is allocated money by county and so on Londons share seems to be close to that of Scotlands.”
As Robert Peffers isn’t around right now, I’ll chime in on this one…
The purpose of the Barnett Formula is to provide the cash to pay for devolved functions. Westminster cannot devolve a ‘power’ without also releasing the money to pay for its delivery.
The reason that NI gets a bigger Barnett chunk is that they have more devolved powers than Scotland (similarly Wales gets less ad they have less devolved powers).
As England doesn’t have a devolved parliament, it is funded as ‘the UK’ (i.e. everyone’s taxes UK wide) by the de-facto English Parliament – Wesrminster.
Good analysis and reasoning there by Stu.
Here’s my conspiracy theory…! (Sorry, it’s long. Just scroll on by if you can’t be bothered!)
Deliberate poll manipulation.
Why? Make it seem it’s going to be really tight between the Conservatives and Labour (UK-wide).
Enables the MSM to fearmonger, scaremonger and smear to their English readers and viewers.
The fear and loathing of the Scots (SNP) by the British Establishment and its actors of being part of a government led by Labour and having substantial influence is shared, voiced and spread by the MSM:
Sturgeon: “The most dangerous woman in Britain”, “The wrecking ball” photoshop mock-up; outside 10 Downing St. with Ed Miliband disguised as robbers, and etc…
Alex Salmond shown as a pickpocket, shown as having Miliband in his pocket, and etc…
Scots promoted as being scroungers, thieves and ne’er-do-wells; the ‘othering’ and enemy-within-ing of Scots…
The screams of ‘It would not be democratic’, ‘It would be an affront to democracy’; hysterical stories of bloodletting and “rivers of blood”; the lies, misinformation and xenophobia and outright racism… day after day after day.
The tories led by Cameron constantly tell adoring English audiences of the horror of a Labour government that includes a very sizable SNP contingent being illegitimate and untrustworthy, where Miliband would be unable to stop the SNP demands… and their not even English, and they don’t like the English, and they’ll demand even more money than we give them already, and they’ll demand another referendum immediately, and, and, and….
Consequence:
Miliband is forced into showing how equally tough he is against the ‘Scottish separatists’ and goes as far as saying that he would rather not be in government than work with the SNP.
Meanwhile, Scotland is given up as lost to the SNP. Conservatives have accepted this for some time. Labour (in England) know they are going to get annihilated in Scotland and leave it to its fate in order to concentrate on the English electorate.
All ‘major’ parties say they will not work with the SNP. The MSM continue to tell their English consumers that the SNP are ‘outside’ the Westminster parliament, are illegitimate and any power they would have would be ‘undemocratic’. The fear factor is ramped up to the max.
Result:
The English electorate swallow the anti-Scottish black propaganda spewed out by all and sundry hook line and sinker. The Conservatives are voted back in with a majority – job done!
Meanwhile:
Labour lose and lose heavily while their leader resigns.
The Lib Dems have been ignorant pawns in the game, lose heavily and their leader resigns.
UKIP have been used as fearmongering stooges, win only one seat and their leader resigns.
Too far fetched?
Possibly. But do be aware of the Snowdon revelations of GCHQ covert illegality from the likes of the Joint Intelligence Threat Research Group (JTRIG) which runs an “effects” programme against Britain’s enemies under what it calls the four Ds: “Deny/Disrupt/Degrade/Deceive”. The mission of the unit is: “Using online techniques to make something happen in the real or cyber world.” The agency has/had a programme (one of many) called ‘Underpass’ which can change the outcome of online polls. Read up on JTRIG to become aware of what they have done and continue to do.
“Britain’s enemies”…
The SNP, with their ultimate goal of independence, which would lead to the dissolution of the UK, will undoubtedly be seen by the British Establishment, GCHQ, MI5, MI6, etc. of being Britain’s [sic] enemy. The possibility of the SNP having a real influence at the heart of the British Establishment would be unthinkable. So then…
The polls and their assemblers are ‘manipulated’ by those who can to show the election too close to call. The Establishment, the Conservatives and their MSM go into ‘UK threat’ mode. Labour and other parties get played like fiddles. The Conservatives win convincingly by a duped English electorate. The SNP have an overwhelming win in Scotland, but they won’t be in government so will have less power and influence. Conservatives, Establishment and its actors are happy. Job done!
@Hobbit
To an extent I agree with you, subject to caveats. There were/are aspirational voters in Scotland. But on the whole they didn’t vote for Thatcher. They did for Blair. Thatcher’s doctrine accepted the inevitability of mass unemployment as a tool of macro-economic policy, with the disastrous social side-effects. I just don’t think that Scots ‘aspirational’ voters buy into wholesale the Tories’ individual materialist credo. There is at least some acknowledgement that there has to be proper collective provision (NHS, welfare, social services). Bear in mind as well that Scotland has a proportionately higher number – including professional/skilled – working in the public sector.
East Renfrewshire is actually a good example. One of the most affluent constituencies in Scotland. Should be a tailor-made Tory constituency. Voted Tory for decades till 97 when Smurph won. By that time you had 18 years of the Thatcher/Major project.
Re Blair, several things need to be remembered. He came in when the economy was already starting to do well. The Tories were in disarray with leaders such as Hague, IDS, Howard.
The point in my OP was that Labour have just been decimated in Scotland on a platform of a largely neo-liberal agenda including matching the Tories on austerity cuts, purporting to be for ‘working families’ and attacking immigration. I simply can’t see how moving further to the right a la Blair is the answer to their problems in Scotland.
Some the BTL comments on the English press are vile and bitter. Nicola the witch etc… (Shakes head)
They voted tory’s in and now blame everyone else for their mess. What a bunch of losers.
REF 2 please.
Staying in a union with policies EVERYONE hates and a rising amount of anti-Scots rhetoric is crazy.
Wait till the cuts come and then we’ll be blamed even more.
They are naive darn sarf. really really naive.
Thank fuck i live in Scotland 😀 😀 😀 .
As always exellent analysis here Stu about the ineptitude of the London centric, mainly, media to correctly understand the opinion polls. (Multpile huge thumbs ups thingys 😀 )
I must admit I did gasp at the exit poll result. I have always been one who was shouting for a 59 seat win, with a rather large tongue in a rather small cheek it has to be said. However when the exit poll came out with 58 seats it did actually blow me away. 🙂
I seem to remember in a previous post that I had said I thought the Lord Ashcroft polls were the best one’s to keep an eye on cause they generally seem to come out closest to the actual result. It’s nice to see that the last poll he did confirms my faith in his polls although as is said above the evidence was actually there in all the polls you just had to know how to read the results and actually understand them.
I’m no psephol … psep … sod it opinion poll watcher and nonunderstander but I think, with a HUGE helping hand from Stu and others on here :P, I sort of got the drift that things were not quite as the London centric media wanted us all to believe.
Thank you Stu and all you psepholwhatsits for keeping me on the straight and narrow regarding my nonunderstanding of opinion poll results. 😀
Cameron won because he lied. The biggest liar won. Westminster are a bunch of crooks. Mass murderers, child molesters, fraudsters and tax evaders. Brown/Blair should be in jail. Where’s the Chilcot verdict? Westminster secrecy and lies covered up by the Official Secret’s Act. It’s just a PR act. Labour/ Unionists lied that’s why they lost.
Scotland can do what it likes.
Pointed out many time, regardless of how close the labour/tory%s were! the system is designed to produce a majority and regardless of how many snp mp’s we elect, in such a case! we would be ignored! as will now happen.
Not sure this is such a bad thing for the snp, the anti Tory, pro labour campaign they ran will stand us in good stead going forward and will play well with the remaining slab supporters. The snp got a huge boost in support after the Tories won in 2010, but I don’t believe that this swing will continue in the same manner, it will be interesting to see the next Indy poll, I think we have consolidated the vote at 50/50 now. Unfortunately, this isn’t the event that ns was talking about which will cause another 10% to cross the floor and support Indy, it only allows us to consolidate and keep chipping away. The snp mp’s will have no power but they will now have a voice to do this, our job is now to remove as many unionist msp’s as possible in 2016. Strangle the unionist movement at its source in Scotland
Thanks for your response to Barnett Paul.
Great article Dal Riata. I’m off to do some research on JTRIG now.
Democracy Reborn says:
Tweet earlier today from Duncan Hothersall:-
“Labour is in good health. People just disagreed with us.”
I want to say DR that this is an absolutely astounding remark to make but I’ve seen who made the remark and it’s a case of Situation Normal Keeping Head in Sand syndrome from Hothersall.
His full tweet was this.
Folk also need to distinguish between losing an election and an existential threat. Labour is in good health. People just disagreed with us.
So long as they keep behaving in this manner then WE can keep marching forward with Hope in our hearts and Clear Vision for the future of Scotland. Long may they continue to keep behaving in this manner then. 😀
Pollsters also probably got turnout wrong. Looks to me like the Labour support stayed at home in England.
In terms of what-ifferey, I wonder whether Ruth Davidson’s claim re SNP bullies at Annan count was enough to make the difference there? The MSM cerainly gave it extensive and astonishingly rapid exposure.
It is, of course, impossible to know, one way or the other but as these things go, l feel it is likely to have had more effect than most.
Not perhaps, in swinging many (or even any) voters from SNP to Con but possibly in keeping a few ‘lenders’ who had been intending to vote SNP at home instead and probably most of all, by way motivating hitherto ‘don’t know if I can be bothered’ anti-SNP types to do so.
Whether it was enough to overturn the 800 or so votes required I have my doubts, but who knows?
What I do know with a high degree of confidence, is that the value to the indy cause of having Mundell as solitary Tory far outweighs that of having 57 rather than 56 SNP MPs. Not just because with Westminster representation on a par with SLAB, it rubs the latter’s nose in it, but because of the headache it gives Cameron.
What does he do now for SOSfS? With the libdems no longer in partnership will he be force to, shock horror, actually give Mundell the job or will it go to a Southern Tory?
I liked yours Dal Riata:
I feel somewhat mediocre in my understanding of what the Rev is pointing out here:
I think what the Rev is saying is that the outcome was within the margin of error in the polls and therefore was not caused by any failure of the polls themselves; So a Tory advantage was ‘already’ there, in plain sight, but no one (experts) was seeing what was in front of them.
The polls predictions where analysed wrongly and subsequently the shaping of both the Labour and Tory ‘campaign strategy’ was predicated upon that faulty analysis.
The Tories campaign of ‘demonising’ any Labour government with any SNP input was based on the faulty ‘hung parliament’ narrative. To my mind it may well have contributed to an increase in Tory vote share; combined with the true and more relevant reason for their majority: The Libdem collapse.
Why was the wipeout of the Libdems not showing up in the polls or was it? This surely would have alerted those pollsters (and campaign experts), and begged the question; who is benefiting from their demise?
Labour just seems to have reacted off the Tories campaign strategy as their campaign strategy, probaly increaing Tories vote share further?
Sorry for going O/T but it looks like one of the bills from the last government is about to be revived and will be near the top of the Tories agenda … new commons boundaries.
link to archive.is
From what I’ve understood when they pass this bill to reduce the House of Commons from 650 seats to 600 seats then the Tories will be able, by all accounts, to lock out Labour from government for a generation or two.
Looking at the revised map it looks, to me, like Labour will be reduced to seats in London and in and around Newcastle, Manchester, Cardiff and Liverpool.
Patrick Scott Hogg wrote on 12th October 2014:
“The day of reckoning is coming for the Project Fear masters at the ballot box on 7th May 2015.”
link to archive.is
Just one of the many warnings ignored by the Unionists.
There is no doubt that the Polls were wrong. But the ‘shy Tory’ effect is a red herring. The people who are normally polled have VOLUNTEERED to be polled and there are no shy voters among them. In my view it was simply the incumbency effect and UKIP and LibDem voters returning to the Tories as a result of the nasty anti-SNP smears and scares during the final days’campaigning by the Tories and their cockroaches in the Right Wing media. Maybe if Milliband had had the courage to denounce those scares when they were first raised instead of cowardly bowing his head and going along with them he would today be preparing to form a Government supported by the SNP.
The smear tactics also enabled the sole Labour candidate to win in Edinburgh South. It was disgraceful the way Neil Hay was attacked in the local papers for some jokey tweets from years ago. But then it WAS Morningside with lots of Tories presumably voting tactically against SNP.
Looks like the pressure is building for fundilmurphily:
Libby Brooks tweets:
Breaking: Pat Rafferty of Unite Scotland calls for Jim Murphy to resign: “Staying on as leader will only prolong the party’s agony” #GE2015
With regards to Davidson’s *ahem* implied threat of bullying Big Burly Blokes at Annan I can assure you Chic that there quite a few photo’s doing the rounds on Twitter of these BBB’s. In fatcone of the photo’s was of three women, one of whom was Emma’s wee sister. So not only did Davidson get the size of the BBB’s wrong she got their SEX wrong as well . 😀
We will never know how much an effect, if any, that atrocious tweet had on the electorate in Annan Chic but what I will say is the result for DCT gave Fluffy a damned good kicking up his earse. He went from a 4,000 majority to an 800 majority. Not only that but Emma managed incredibly to raise the S.N.P. from being fourth in 2010 to second this time round. 🙂
Thanks for that Lesley, of course, knew it would be untrue anyway.
Just noticed I said Annan count rather than Annan polling station. Sos.
As for SOSfS – how many Scots do the Tories have in English seats? Liam Fox is the only name that comes to mind.
Something’s a foot
Herald online has just announced “Neil Findlay resigns from Labour’s shadow cabinet in Holyrood”
– more to come
Dal Riata 2.49
Bang on the money m8
The Union’s future is already behind it. Thanks to Barking Broon there will never again be another Scottish Prime Minister. It’s over & done with, there’s no longer any point to Scottish representation at Westminster. I presume that the new Scotbloc will be getting the equivalent of Jimmy Reid’s “There will be no bevvying” speech and warned that their expenses will be watched like a hawk. The baron Springburn, who used to take new members in hand and show them how to creatively fill in their expenses form, is long gone. They’re at Westminster to find a way out of there not build a career or socialise.
Immigration is a big issue in England. I reckon Labour refusing to have an in / out EU Referendum didn’t help their cause.
Schrödinger’s cat wrote:
“our job is now to remove as many unionist msp’s as possible in 2016”
Could not agree more, i stated this just a few days ago.
It has to be one of our top three priorities.
Ronnie Anderson and Cadogen Enright hit on one of the other priorities on another thread. This is how i see it:
We should leave our democratically elected representatives to get on with the political jobs we elected them to do.
Meanwhile, we as a movement should be focused on the following:
(1): Clearing as many Unionists from Holyrood as possible, especially those of the red variety due to their Scottish branch managers public declaration of his aim to weaken our parliament.
(2): Turning every single local authority in Scotland into places which are run by entirely pro independence personnel.
This does not necessarily have to be SNP people, it could also include Greens, SSP and Independent candidates, just as long as they are sympathetic to Scottish independence.
(3): Remain fully focused on holding the media to account, especially the BBC, whilst supporting our own outlets such as WOS and Newsnet etc. This would also include large well organised rallies and any other well organised protests and creative ideas we may be able to conjure up and taking mass peaceful action whenever and wherever necessary.
In a nut shell, it’s all about constantly spreading the word.
Fancy.Morningside….the Labour heartland.
Oops!
Looks like the Labour names continue to fall on their swords. 😉
link to archive.is
Meanwhile over in Murph the Smurph land there are a couple of unions calling on him to resign.
link to archive.is
Think I might start a new hashtag on Twitter … #Murphymuststay 😀
The Flat Cap The Football Terraces and the Coal Pit
except with a shiny blue suit and they can’t figure it out
That’s the Labour Party North and South of the Border
Political Zoological Specimens tapping on Sinclair ZXs like Apes waiting for something to happen
Scotland is moving at a pace and they can’t keep up
The Tories are no different, they can make it work but they don’t know the meaning behind it so they attempt prevention of advancement
UKIP is a great thing for the Tories they’re just like Labour, Insular and protectionist of an out of date society
which can’t exist in the modern world so the Tory Imperialists embrace the stupidity of it and the poor English cheer with a tear for the way it was
New politics which is neither left or right but honest to goodness do the right thing for advancement, and on behalf of the Nation
That’s the SNP and it scares the Capitalist Imperialists shitless and must be stopped or killed
Except the cat’s now out of the bag, the Referendum started it now people are figuring out ( Hey this looks like a good thing here)
The Scots now aren’t looking left or right or centre we’ve
got 180 degree vision
You can’t fight an idea when you don’t understand it
They call it Nationalist,or Nationalism to brand it as something evil
Me, I’d rather call it ” Nationhood ”
and I think that’s something to be pretty proud of
Music….
chic mcgregor says:
Thanks for that Lesley, of course, knew it would be untrue anyway.
Just noticed I said Annan count rather than Annan polling station. Sos.
Not a problem Chic.
I forgot to mention that there rumours that Davidson was so concerned about the BBB’s that she had decided to advance on Annan with the Conservative Panzer Division. Like THAT news was going to scare us. WE were up for a fight in the #AnnanWarZone. Had she tried to make a breakthrough she’d have failed. We were all ready and waiting … anti tank missiles were all ready and primed ready for action. 😀
@Edward
It would seem that Neil Findlay who stood against Murphy for the branch office leaders position has some integrity and can no longer work under Murphy.
I expect Murphy will be gone by next week, one wheel fell off his wagon on Friday, that’s another just fallen off.
Trade union Unite in Scotland have also called for Murphys resignation. Murphy is an embarrassment to himself in attempting to cling on as leader. He should have followed the example of his boss and simply quit.
Working on the ground in DC&T, I can confirm that the incumbency factor was a big part of why Mundell retained the seat (although we came within 700 votes of unseating him).
He’s personally inoffensive and reported to be likeable. Since he’s never been trusted with any responsibility in high office, he’s never had to take or take the blame for the blame for unpopular decisions. Whenever the local council does something popular, he claims the credit.
The seat is geographically huge. It’s impossible for any candidate to get to every village. So the one who is already a known and generally inoffensive quantity has a big inbuilt advantage.
My friend talked someone out of voting for Mundell in two minutes flat by describing Emma Harper’s personal qualities of energy and caring, and pointing out that she would undoubtedly do as much and more for her constituents given the chance. But you can’t talk to over 40,000 voters like that, one to one.
The initial line of that voter, that although she wasn’t a Tory she thought she would vote for Mundell because he was a nice enough chap and he’d done [insert normal council work here] for the community, was telling.
I have to agree with Dal Riata. Brilliant analysis. The key to understanding what happened is referencing the Ashcroft polls. The Tories were always going to win.
Morag
You should be proud of your campaign. Coming from the very low position to almost win it was a real achievement.
@Stoker
3): Remain fully focused on holding the media to account, especially the BBC, whilst supporting our own outlets such as WOS and Newsnet etc.
I totally agree Stoker, if any Wingers can spare a couple of bob it would be great if you could send some towards the Independence Live fundraiser which is struggling at the moment.
All the new media helped greatly in getting 56 SNP Mp’s to Westminster. Stop buying newspapers give the money saved instead to our new media. Without our help they will cease to exist.
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/going-forward–2
Fred. “Scottish representation at Westminster. I presume that the new Scotbloc will be getting the equivalent of Jimmy Reid’s “There will be no bevvying” speech and warned that their expenses will be watched like a hawk.”
Hope , they need to be whiter than white. A bit of coaching on dealing with the media wouldn’t go a miss
Lesley Anne 4.37
#Murphymuststay
ha ha ha fair nearly wet myself there. I actually wouldn’t be too surprised if there’s some slab drone somewhere stupid enough to take that seriously. Let’s hope so!
I went on to Twitter jcd and found someone had already started that hashtag! 😀
@ Morag.
I’m not sure of the figures which are whirling through my cranial cavity but did Mundell not pull in something close to 20K in the 2010 elections and the SNP something like 5K?
If that’s the case, and considering there was only several hundred votes in it this time round, i think you lot were damn well unlucky and pulled off a tremendous result due to a phenomenal effort.
OK, you did not quite get the result we all hoped you would but nobody can knock the massive progress which was made.
It’s a massive step in the right direction.
Murphy’s current behaviour in not doing the decent thing. Completely sums up his character. He is out for himself, and cares not a jot about what he does to get it.
The man is just a complete sociopath. I think they will have to smoke him out!
Speaking of cretins. Did anyone hear that wee shit McConnell giving his sound bite:” Slabour failed because they allowed the SNP to take credit for things they had done”. My chinhit the ground.
Slabour are still angry about losing Holyrood 7 years ago! I seem to remember McConnel locked himself in,until lunchtime the following day.
It used to be the case that whenever a poll was published or broadcast the statement was always made that the figures given were plus or minus 3% in other words a range not an absolute figure.
Now that is rarely if ever mentioned so the impression is given that the figures are absolute figures and are interpreted and dissected as such which, as this article so clearly shows, leads to the wrong conclusions.
If nothing else it shows that maths teaching and statistics in particular are in need of some attention.
Remember that a Tory LORD can be appointed to a cabinet positions. We have a few Scottish Tory Lords that may become the SOSOS – It doesn’t have to be Mundell.
An unelected Tory Lord running the Scottish office 🙂
4.30 Mealer says Fancy Moringside Labour Heartlands. OMG what will happen to house prices in Morningside (o
The polls were not wrong.. but have a great weekend anyways Scotland, you’ve earned a historic result.
Celebrate it this sunny Saturday evening!
Cheers (and to you too Stu.)
I’ve just been reading the Daily Record online. JK Rowling is complaining once AGAIN about ‘cybernat’ abuse. Something will have to be done about this. Who’s to say where this abuse is coming from and after reading Dal Riatas comments re. Joint Intelligence Threat Research Group (JTRIG) (and checking out the type of dirty tricks they play online) much of it could be coming from them. It could also be coming from ANY individual who is anti-SNP (from here, down south or abroad) in an attempt to discredit us.
JKR should ask for the Police to ascertain who these individuals are instead of making constant unsubstantiated allegations. I wonder why she hasn’t done that?
Nicola Sturgeon should make public a request for the Police to identify if the culprits are SNP members / supporters or not.
If this isn’t nipped in the bud now I can see it being exacerbated between now and the Holyrood Elections.
You’re mixing up random error and bias. Even though the result was within the nominal margin of error for each indvidual poll, the result was still a catastrophe staistically. Like the 2012 US election hurt the credibility of all those pundits saying the result was too close to call, but in the opposite direction.
The margin of error assumes that all the individual polls are just gyrating randomly about the “true” result, and as more polls are performed (at the same time) or the sample gets bigger, the total result will settle down to the true value. This is obviously not what happened, I didn’t see a single poll say that the conservatives are 9 points ahead of labour. The various average of all the polls (538, may2015 etc.) failed to predict the result too.
Besides the shy tory factor another additional possibility that Nate Silver metioned in the context of the 2012 US election is herding, or polls adjusting their results based on other polls. This will cause the poll results to become correlated and inflate the nominal MOE of any aggragate polls; if polls results depend on each other, random variation in one poll can taint the others, so the MOE should be adjusted upwards to take this into account. This is hard if the polling firms are keeping their behaviour a secret and pretending their polls are actually fully independent. Aggregrating wouldt have been less effective at detecting the discrepancy if this were the case.
I’m on an tablet so this is shorter and less clear than it should be. I’m a procrastinating Phd student in stats (in curve fitting, not survey design) for what its worth.
Being the caring sharing person that I am, and you all can confirm this … can’t you? 😉
I thought it was only right and fair that I bring this very important petition to your attention. This is a petition very close to my heart, particularly following recent events. 🙂
link to you.38degrees.org.uk
This is what the UK have voted for. The best summation of what the real result of the election means for all in the UK over the next 5 years.
To those that voted NO, you reap what you sow.
The Artist Taxi Drivers view.
link to youtube.com
Stoker says:
@ Morag.
I’m not sure of the figures which are whirling through my cranial cavity but did Mundell not pull in something close to 20K in the 2010 elections and the SNP something like 5K?
Stoker I posted this up on a previous thread last night.
2010
Conservative 17,457 with 38% vote share
Labour 13,263 with 28.9% vote share
Liberal Dem 9.080 with 19.8% vote share
S.N.P. 4,945 with 10.8% vote share
UKIP 637 with 1.4% vote share
Green 510 with 1.1% vote share
Turnout was 68.9%
Majority was 4,194
2015
Conservative 20,759 with 39.8% vote share
S.N.P. 19.961 with 38.3% vote share
Labour 7,711 with 14.8% vote share
UKIP 1,472 with 2.8% vote share
Liberal Dem 1,392 with 2.7% vote share
Green 839 with 1.6% vote share
Turnout was 76.1%
Majority was 798
As a note about Curtice he’s well able to interpret the polls if he keeps focussed and doesn’t think about Labour. The moment he worries about Labour in Scotland he reinterprets his results to suit. It’s a subjective but semi-conscious bias!
I may be imagining this, but did I see a tweet from Yvette Cooper which ridiculed Murphy in a photograph of him standing in front of a Polling Station arms wide open and being described as the Scottish Labour group – only Jim was in the picture.
I checked back on Coopers page and it did seem to be her but the comment has since disappeared, have I flipped or had more than one sip of Shiraz.
Nicola and a couple of friends earlier today in South Queensferry. 😉
link to blogs.channel4.com
You can’t blame ex-MP Jim Murphy for wanting to stay in the top slot at the Branch Unit, after all he spent nine years at university studying exactly how to achieve such a vaunted position.
If the Greens hadn’t stood Emma Harper would probably have won.
Well done the Greens, always known for their political perspicacity.
@ LA (5.39pm).
Thanks for that clarification, that’s probably where i got the loose figures from.
As for your 38 Degrees petition, no chance.
(a) – I don’t help companies who do the dirty on us. I’m not in the habit of giving the enemy my support and details.
(b) – No petition will ever have any say in whether DimJim stays or goes. If he’s ousted it will be due to the Unions or the ballot box.
(c) – And anyway, i want the freak to stay, you can’t buy that sort of help for our cause. Pure gold.
😉
I swear there was an article on SCOT GOES POP, explaining that the Tory vote was underestimated in the way people were commentating, only I can’t remember the details.
I think a lot of people decide on their way to the polls and the thought of Miliband attempting to negotiate against Putin, Merkel, Hilary Clinton (or, let’s face it, a ten year-old child) was just too much…
I don’t know why, but I think in the long-run the 56 against a Tory government with a tiny majority might work out better than being associated with a disastrous Labour (aka Tory-lite) government. I think the stars are coming into alignment for us at the moment (possibly for the first time in 700 years!).
Morag, thank you for your work in DCT, it was incredible to get so close. Don’t forget people, the Tories almost took TWO Borders seats! Morag explains the circumstances well. Like Carbuncle’s seat, also close (SNP won in Shetland), there are specific “geographic” and other reasons. And 59 out of 59 was just never going to happen…
One of my favourite snapshots of the night was Nicola with the “Magnificent Seven” in Glasgow. Still cannae believe it and have to keep pinching myself! It shows what we can do and, now, Salmond and his 55 can really give it to ’em in the very heart of the beast…
The Scottish pols were remarkably and consistently accurate. I never dared hope we would do that well. I thought it was the English polls that were accurate and the Scottish ones that were wonky.
I was disappointed that Mundell survived although to win 56 and scare the bejaysus out of the remaining three was an amazing achievement.
I understand your aversion to the 38 degrees mob Stoker I just thought it was yet another fun idea to keep the pressure up on Labour and co. I know that the petition has absolutely no chance of achieving anything but the very fact that it even exists and is doing the rounds will surely end up confusing the few supporters of both sides of the Murphy debate inside Labour HQ. 😀
I agree with you about Murph the Smurph staying hence my continual use of #MurphyMustStay over on Twitter. 😉
To be honest could you see Ed Milliband truly representing the UK on the world stage?
He might be a nice guy, i don’t know him to comment, but he’s an awkward guy and do the think the world would take us seriously?
“Emmm, uha, Putin could you please stop, erm, uhuh, doing things in Ukraine?”
But what I did get from Milliband was he had a kind of “Messiah” complex. It was all “I” this and “I” that.
Also the way he looked at people, when on a walk about was just plain creepy, like a visiting evangelist, part of me was expecting him to press his hand on everyone’s forehead and tell them they were cured of anything, that ailed them and then dunk them in water and baptise them.
Bear with me on this one.
The general opinion here is that the Tories were always going to win and knew it.
If the Tories were always going to get a majority
and
If the Tories always knew they were going to get a majority,
Then clearly the anti-Scottish rhetoric of their election campaign was motivated by a desire to gain a larger majority than they were otherwise expecting.
However, given how small a majority they actually obtained, does this mean that without realising it they actually needed the anti-Scottish rhetoric to win at all.
Or does it mean the rhetoric had substantially less influence on the vote in England than some of us think it did?
Lesley-Anne says…I thought it was only right and fair that I bring this very important petition to your attention. This is a petition very close to my heart, particularly following recent events. 🙂
link to you.38degrees.org.uk
Signed up. I have faith in Fundily Mundily, be kind and sign up too. He needs all the help he can get.
Any info in he exit polls about how different age groups voted?
The poor man is living every day hand to mouth and no one, as great as he has been over the centuries 😉 , deserves our forever thanks for the grand job he has done JM. 😀
Millipede should have grown a pair and told the press that he would cooperate with the SNP but …..
The SNP have to make their priorities in this Parliament to get FFA within 5 years and to get control over the EBBC Scotland.
Sorry for going O/T here but there appears to be a wee *ahem* party happening in London today to celebrate the re-annointment of the Tories back into power. 😉
What’s that? … it’s NOT a party … oh sorry folks no party in London I’m afraid. Ach well party … demonstration … easy mistake to make these days. 😛
Ah it’s a demonstarion against the Tories. Now I get it. Mind you no one sitting at home will get it though cause apparently NO news channel is actually reporting this demo.
Does anyone have any proof that Jim Murphy isn’t still at University?
It may be more than 9 years
Maybe he refused to leave there too.
we need to do something about the BBC they are a disgrace ,they are still running with the premise that Labour are important in Scotland ,got news for you BBC they are not they got humiliated in the worst defeat their party has ever suffered and if you dont want to feel our wrath i suggest you re-evaluate your stance or you are next,we are not asking you to go all SNP just to be balanced which you are not.
The result down south went pear shaped for Labour when Milliband’s spin doctors suggested ‘Edstone’
and changed Ed from weak to ludicrous.
Similarly Murphy’s SLAB spin doctor extraordinaire turned Jim from joke figure to Stan Laurel.
Strange how crap spin doctors or fifth columnists spin doctors could change so much in so short a time.
Mundell needed 798 Green voters to sing from the Unionist hymn sheet- and 839 of them duly obliged. Patrick Harvie has some explaining to do. Why put a Green up against an SNP candidate? So much for the progressive alliance.
SKY news allowing comments on Nicola’s call for end to austerity. Majority of comments are very hostile, looks like Engerland is angry at the uppity Scots.
F..E..E..L T..H..E L..O…V..E from perfidious Albion!
Jim Murphy will have to be dragged out kicking and screaming, he has no integrity or sense of decency. But we all knew that already didn’t we.
I think I’m with Lesley- Anne on this one, Murphy must stay. It would be sad for us to lose such an asset. Mind you SLAB will never recover until him and his ilk are gone, maybe the will never recover at all. They have a very long and hard road in front of them.
Mind you, who cares, they’ve brought it all on themselves, but from what is being said at the moment, the don’t understand that simple fact. SNP bad, electorate bad. GIRUY.
Good Evening from the ” Republic of Scotland”,
Just a couple of points as I see it.
noticed ukip votes were up in seats in the north of England and Wales where tories did not have much chance in winning.
Their votes did not hold up against the incumbent tories in the south of England
Please no bittterness amongst friends. Greens allowed to field candidates in all seats.
No one could forsee how close we came to wiping out all uk parties. Most polls gave us large majorties but as we all know about tactical voting it would have been a miracle to take all seats.
let us not ridicule the less fortunate but try to re-educate them in nuances of Scottish politics.
Lastly enjoy this moment as I am and be aware the fight has only now begun. We are now U.K. threat not as before a distant annoyance.
I know it’s not the done thing to criticise Stu here, but margin of error applies to one poll. When you have poll after poll after poll saying pretty much the same thing, to deduct 3% from one paryt and add 3% to the other and suggest that was what the polls were saying all along, is stretching credulity just a little.
I don’t think anyone really knows what went on with the polls & I am sure that we were all pretty shocked at 10:01 on Thursday night when we saw the exit poll. I just don’t think Stu’s knee-jerk analysis has much substance to it.
My gut feeling is that the polls got it wrong all along for whatever reason but that is no more than a gut feeling. It certainly played into the Tories’ hands as it gave (false) credence to their scare stories about the SNP hijacking a labour government.
I’m not a great one for conspiracy theories, my guess is modern multi party politics is just a bit too complex for opinion polls.
As someone who’s joy at SNP success was massively tempered by the thought of another 5 years of Tory government, it certainly concerns me that the polling figures helped the Tories and there scaremongering.
So…. if the UK votes no to leaving the EU and Westminster flatly refuses to grant another Indy Ref how do we get to independence from here?
It should be an offence /parliamentary rule for any politician or donor or celebrity endorser, to report a crime to the press before the police, and if it doesnt qualify as a crime the press reporting should have to include.. ‘.. No actual crime has been committed… ”
WE NEED TO FOCUS ON THIS NOW, WHILE FRESH IN THE MEMORY, REMIND THE POLICE AND PROSECUTORS THAT MANIPULATION IS TAKING PLACE RIGHT UNDER THEIR NOSES.
I’m still totally shocked at the Tories winning a majority. For many months the polls were consistent in predicting an hung parliament.
Credit where it’s due to the Rev for refusing to believe this , it’s true that the result was within the margin of error for all polls of 100 people at around 3%.
However one party gained 3% and another lost 3%. This is fact but the probability of this must be low. I’m no statistician so someone else may be able to provide the actual numbers for this to happen.
What I don’t doubt is that the information provided to the voting public through the medium of the MSM is massively biased towards the Tory party and their generous supporters who like things just the way they are. Thank you very much!
The information we are fed can easily be manipulated, George Orwell wasn’t too far off when he published “1984” way back in 1949.
“The Party seeks power entirely for its own sake. We are not interested in the good of others; we are interested solely in power, pure power.”
I don’t want to come across as a sycophant but have to say I believe that some people who have been called visionaries, really are not.
Orwell though was one so too is the Rev.
thedogphilosopher says ”You can’t blame ex-MP Jim Murphy for wanting to stay in the top slot at the Branch Unit, after all he spent nine years at university studying exactly how to achieve such a vaunted position.”
Where will Jim Murphy go if he loses his job? The House of Lords?
He doesn’t have any educational qualifications unlike ‘Scots are the most highly educationally qualified adults in Europe’.
Maybe Barrs will give him a job stacking irn bru crates.
‘Lesley-Anne …. 38degrees.org.uk/petitions/scots-against-the-resignation-of-jim-murphy’
I just hope this doesn’t afford the many cretins out there the opportunity to absolutely discredit the SNP members and supporters. If so their vile comments will be on the front page of every anti-SNP newspaper in the country. The last thing we need right now.
@ mike cassidy
The anti-Scottish rhetoric they used was a trap for Labour ,the tories knew this would not hurt them but if Labour tried to copy them and lets face it that was what they were doing ,then the English left would be appalled and stay at home.
this is what happened Labour didnt lose its core vote to anyone except the SNP or the tories would have a massive majority which they do not,and even if Scotland had put 59 labour MP`s to the mix it would not have mattered we would still have a Tory government.
Labour lost in England by turning to the right and trying to take Tory/ukip voters ,instead of tearing off chunks from the lib dem vote ,which now looks like the tories captured most off.
BBC nonsense. The £7Billion ‘black hole’ is under Westminster policies. No Trident/illegal wars, a tax on ‘loss leading’ drink, no tax evasion, banking fraud or debt repayments = £10Billion a year = no ‘black hole’.
The Osbourne/Alexander 11% (£2Billion a year) Oil tax increase (up to 80%) in 2011 Budget cost Scotland £4Billion a year = £16Billion.
UKIP seats nos as compared to SNP. Contesting 300 seats gives more votes (%) than contesting 60 seats. More BBC nonsense.
Cameron influence the Referendum. Illegally used the Civil servants and lies to influence the No vote.
link to opendemocracy.net
Not long in so I don’t know if it has been posted already: long, but worth a read, I think
Labour/Unionists should have gone with SNP winners, instead of UKIP losers. Bad strategy.
Although SNP are better not backing Labour/Unionist losers, especially when they muck up again.
Scotland can do what it wants. Cameron is a wimp.
@Lesley Anne,
yes picked up the riot (sorry disturbance) in London on Twitter.
Police state where no reports are allowed on the TV or BBC – truely astounding.
A bit like when no one reported to 40,000 people on the anti austerity March in London last year.
So it is not just SNP rallies in freedom square and Buchannan st steps that go unreported.
We need to get out of this madness – independence is the only way.
p.s.
Like the #MurphyMustStay hashtag – 9 more years – 9 more years – 9 more years!
Just helping Jim Murphy to put his CV together.
Although he attended University for 9 years, and didn’t acquire a degree / certificate, he did make quite a ‘name’ for himself as President of the Scottish National Union of Students. He was condemned by a House of Commons Early Day Motion signed by 18 Labour MPs such as Tony Benn for “intolerant and dictatorial behaviour”.
”That this House condemns the intolerant and dictatorial behaviour of the President of the National Union of Students, Mr Jim Murphy, who has unconstitutionally suspended NUS Vice President, Clive Lewis, because he took part, in a personal capacity, in an open debate at Queen Mary and Westfield College on the issues raised by the Campaign for Free Education; further notes that along with President Elect, Douglas Trainer, both men have warned NUS Executive member, Rose Woods, that if she attends the Scottish launch of the Campaign for Free Education she too will be suspended from the NUS Executive; reminds Mr Murphy and Mr Trainer that freedom of speech is a right in the United Kingdom, that they have no power to overturn the results of elections that went against their preferred candidates and that, whilst these methods are a common practice in dictatorships around the world, they are not acceptable behaviour from someone such as Mr Murphy who is putting himself forward as suitable for election to the House of Commons.”
Then of course he’s Vice President of the right wing Henry Jackson Society. I’m sure one of the HJS’s many extremely affluent and influential members will offer him a job.
Wikileaks also outlined his links to the US in relation to the Referendum so maybe a new start in the US?
DerekM at 7.36
Agree, Derek.
FFA is a trap. We are probably shouting for it because we know we won’t get it. I am sure we are aware of this – and if we are not I would be very worried because we could be bogged down for years arguing about degrees of FFA and Devo Max which we can only get as concessions by begging Westminster for them.
(We should be promoting a confederal GB – that is a free relationship of INDEPENDENT units agreeing to co-operate freely in areas of mutual interest as happens in the Nordic Union.)
With independence we do what we want. Simples
And of course you cannot have FFA if you leave Defence and Foreign Affairs in Westminster control on our behalf because we would not have the power to refuse to pay for Trident or illegal invasions – and that is not fiscal autonomy.
Independence is the simple. intelligent and logical next step.
To get there we have to establish we are self-supporting (with or without oil revenues) and to do so we stop allowing ourself to be bogged down arguing debateable figures produced by our enemies (using the product of Scotland trapped in a bust UK economy). We do simple comparisons with similar sized successful countries by comparing GDP and GNP and what they achieve with less than we have.
And we ask our people “How long do we allow unionists to suggest that we are the only people too stupid to run our own country”
Dave McEwan Hill 6:07 pm “If the Greens hadn’t stood Emma Harper would probably have won.
Well done the Greens, always known for their political perspicacity.”
That’s hardly fair. There were many calls for the SNP to stand down in Edinburgh South for instance to create a cross party alliance in the election with only one ‘yesser’ per constituency.
Or for the SNP to be explicit about a deal on the list for2016 on the list.
Now we have neither of the two and still no deal for 2016
Keep hearing about the thing where you get more SNP or Labour MPs in Scotland than in Thannitshire for UKIP. Please remember,Scotland didny create this system.Westminster did,moan to Westminster aboot it.
unchillfiltered at 7.23
We do not need permission to have another referendum. We have the inalienable right of self-determination as enshrined in the UN Charter.
To suggest we do suggests that a woman wanting to sue for divorce requires her husband’s permission to do so. Any union or constitutional arrangement in the world is only as binding as its people’s free and voluntary agreement with it
It was very nice to have the assent of UK to have our recent referendum but not legally or constitutionally necessary.
Any suggestion to the contrary is bluff.
Off topic, but can you imagine the media frenzy that would be happening if this was going on in Glasgow right now….
link to facebook.com
@msean
It is propaganda, pure and simple. BBC culpable, there’s a surprise. Quite clever though, at least some of the time. They state the numbers and do no analysis. Looks like fact based reporting: but in reality it is designed to fuel resentment.
Nice one Hoss. 😀
Last year during the referendum Yew Choob came to the fore with an absolutely amazing repetoire of songs. 2014 has now passed into history but we can still use the songs of Yew Choob to ur benefit … in my view. 😀
link to youtube.com
And to think that the BBC made such a big deal about Jim Murphy and an egg!
Riot and sit-in protest on Westminster Bridge.
link to twitter.com
@ Petra: it is different in Scotland. You must have noticed. Eggs in Scotland are lethal, not like those in England. 4 folk shouting in Scotland is a riot, not like lots and a big police presence in England.
Scots are just inherently scary.
I’m annoyed as anyone about the solitary Tory getting in but I do not understand this blaming the greens for edinburgh south. They had a candidate in all 59 seats did they not? Surely if the votes were closer elsewhere this could have happened in any constituency. Do you want them to stand down all their candidates?
Dumfries^
I find it difficult to accept the +3%(Tory) -3%(labour) as a logical explanation for the polls being right. That fits the numbers too neatly even if it is within the margins of error. For me the Cameron Team learned from the experience of the Referendum over the final 96/72 hours and used that experience to great effect. They were aided and abetted by the Unionist Propaganda Machine otherwise known as the Southern Media, BBC included. It worked to great effect because the Southern voters do not have the experience of the Scottish Political Enlightenment(from the referendum campaign) i.e. do not trust the Unionist Propaganda Machine go check out the social media and the internet if you want the truth. In that respect George Orwell did not foresee the fact that, thanks to the internet, not only is Big Brother watching you but you can watch Big Brother. Let us remember that for the next campaign.
Dave McEwan Hill at 8.19
Yeah, but if the unionist supporters simply boycott it because it has’t been sanctioned by their masters….what then?
Luigi,
“Enough people in England may have held their noses and voted for Labour working with a progessive SNP.”
I can’t see how that works.
Do you think those “progressive” people voted other than Labour because of Milliband ruling out any deal with the SNP?
Or did they abstain from voting knowing that would make a hated Tory government more likely?
I think “progressive” people have no credible choice in South Britain and therefore continue voting for Labour whom they (mistakenly) regard as not as bad as the Tories.
The polls are actually way out. The margin of error on the average of the 25 polls is about 0.6% (This figure is 2 standard errors and assumes that each poll was a simple random sample of 1000 voters). The problem with polling is that it is basicly impossible to get a simple random sample of voters so polsters weight their samples to make them look like what they think a SRS should look like i.e 50/50 mail femail split. It looks like they got their weighting badly wrong.
@ unchilfiltred
Dave is right, there isn’t a damn thing anyone can do to stop the Scottish electorate holding one every week if we felt like it, but when it comes to causality, basically any major constitutional impasse will start the ball rolling.
Failure of the Westminster government to fulfil the referendum pledges, EU, FFA, newly discovered past treaty infringements or indeed newly enacted infringements. There’s a wee list to be getting on with anyway. What was always required was enough Scottish MPs willing to act on such, MPs who put the electorate’s interests as a partner first.
Less than 500,000 middle class selfish voters in 100 or less “marginal” constituences in South Britain as almost always decided which coloured Tories were better for their pockets.
Any majority of more than one vote in any constituency is effectively useless in the totally undemocratic “First past the post” Westminster system.
All attention is paid to those “marginal” voters.
Milliband while appealing to those Tory supporters in middle South Britain tried to talk tough to the Scots in the belief that those thumping Labour majorities would be impossible to overturn.
Remember most of the polls were right for Scotland.
It’s been a fantastic couple of days.
Let’s enjoy a brief period of rejoicing before the hard work for 2016 begins. I humbly append Jim Murph’s great legacy to Scottish Labour.
link to google.co.uk
While talking about one back stabber who has just resigned, we are forgetting that other back stabber in Paisley.
Out of those stabbed siblings, I don’t think the red one currently earning half a million per year with a “Charity” (his wages come from people who have donated money to charity), would have done any better.
On the other hand, Labour would not have been routed in Scotland if the stabbed sister had not been blocked from agreeing to an independence referendum after the 2007 Scottish election.
Something happening in Westminster
link to bambuser.com
Dont be so hard on the greens guys there is no way we can say if those green voters would have voted SNP anyway,and since that was the only Tory seat in Scotland you just knew it would be one of the hardest to capture as the tories could fling everything at it ,which they did and just managed to hold on,we will get the bugger next time 😉
Anti-austerity protesters in London being kettled now:
link to bambuser.com
The truth is England is a middle to right wing nation. Sure there are working class areas. But look at England’s map. There is blue from north to south. Wales is no better. They have elected more Tories as well.
This leaves Scotland as a completely ideologically different nation to the RUK.
While Scotland moves to the left, England after Blair has forgotten everything before, and the horror of Thatcher. Blair knew what he had to do to win. Middle England had been Thatcherised. There is no Labour movement left in middle England. Milliband tried unsuccessfully to become Labour Light. England said no because they already had Tory light.
Thats why Labour are finished in Scotland. They have no purpose as a UK party. Right wingers in Scotland can vote Tory. Left wingers SNP.
Thats why the union is over. We have two nations getting further and further apart. I laugh when no voters say better together. They simply don’t understand we have nothing in common with England. Why would you marry someone who had no shared interests. Its a recipe for a quick divorce.
Why is this not being reported by any UK newspaper or the BBC whos James Cook reported the heckling of Murphy a few days ago as “absolute chaos in Glasgow”?
The truth is out there! Just don’t expect to hear it on the BBC.
link to breakingnews.ie
Can’t believe the ‘unrest’ in London and particularly Downing Street, is not being reported by the news channels. It’s staggering! What’s the bet if it was happening in Glasgow it would be wall to wall.
The BBC are reporting it online as of 15 minutes ago. no other choice. Don’t expect to see it on the telly though. We’ll see.
link to bbc.co.uk
@ Thepnr
Someone needs to tweet mr cook (fraid I’m not a tweeter) and get him up to speed. Mind you maybe it’s just that all the roving reporters are all asleep in bed after being up all night with the election.
Yes, I’m sure that’ll be it. 😉
Clootie,
“Be very,very alert when you see the announcement of the new Scottish Labour Party and it’s UNIQUE stance.”
Totally agree.
The very ambitious Neil Findlay has lost no time in starting the chain of events.
Expect Pravda GB and the rest of the unionist media to provide saturation level coverage of this chain of events which will lead to the new Scottish Labour Party.
The whole lot of them are wolves in sheep’s clothing. Forty have been exposed and removed but there are plently more left.
Expect the 56 SNP MPs to be more or less ignored once the dust has settled, unless they make some really big noise at Westminster, which I really hope and expect them to.
I was watching a BBC report yesterday about Boris Johnson becoming an MP in Uxbridge. Part of that report showed him being heckled by Labour supporters as he walked down the street, they had literally surrounded him, holding up Labour placards and shouting in his face as he tried to meet voters.
The report wasn’t about this event, it was just given a passing mention in an overall package. If you search for it there is hardly a mention of it anywhere. No hysterical headlines like “Chaos in the Streets of Uxbridge” or “The Ugly side of Labour” and no call for Milliband to condemn it or suspend those supporters.
Can you imagine if Johnson had been Murphy and those Labour supporters had been SNP supporters.
DerekM,
“Dont be so hard on the greens guys”
It is difficult not to.
This was not the election for the Scottish Greens to increase their political representation. They had no chance of winning a single seat.
Patrich Harvey should have been wise enough to wait for that opportunity in 2016. Like Tommy Sheridan who advocated a vote for the SNP in 2015 as soon as the referendum result became known.
Those 839 Green voters might not have voted SNP but it still leaves a sour taste that a Tory MP hung on with 798 votes.
The good thing is naebody outside the MSM media listens to Slabour anymore!
Thepnr,
“Why is this not being reported by any UK newspaper or the BBC whos James Cook reported the heckling of Murphy a few days ago as “absolute chaos in Glasgow”?”
James Cook’s exact words were “Absolute chaos on the STREETS of Glasgow”.
Let alone STREETS, it was not even on a Glasgow street but at a pedestrianised square with less than 50 people around, most of them Labour activists and their media friends.
Our next top priority must be to get rid of Pravda GB from Scotland.
Giving this another wee punt here for Thepnr before heading off to watch another film. Just watched ‘The Snitch’, not bad, i don’t normally like action films but it’s based on real events, apparently.
“Live fundraiser which is struggling at the moment.
All the new media helped greatly in getting 56 SNP Mp’s to Westminster. Stop buying newspapers give the money saved instead to our new media. Without our help they will cease to exist.”
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/going-forward–2
Anyone have a live link to what’s going on in London? That last one appears to have expired.
Stoker, good man. Just think if Independence Live had a man in London we would be watching these events outside Downing Street as they are happening.
We cannot trust our media to report the real truth, only their version of the establishments “truth” is to be broadcast to the great unwashed.
Support Independence Live and help get the real truth to us manky fuckers!
A summing up of the Murphy debacle. Andy Kerr gets his jibe in.
Labour MSP Neil Findlay MSP, who stood against Mr Murphy for the leadership of the party, has resigned from the Scottish shadow cabinet. In a statement, he said Thursday’s election had been a “disaster” for Scottish party.
He added: “The problems are wide-ranging and deep.
“Radical solutions are needed and can only be implemented following a full, frank, open and democratic debate led by our loyal and hard working, committed party members – a centralised fix just won’t do.”
Earlier in the day, former Scottish Labour minister Andy Kerr had said his party needed to apologise for an “atrocious campaign”.
Mr Kerr, who failed to win the Scottish Labour leadership in 2007, said the party in Scotland needed to be independent of the UK organisation.
He compared Mr Murphy’s campaign to “dad-dancing in the most modern nightclub in the city of Glasgow”.
Sorry but I’ve just seen this on Twitter and just got to share it. 😉
Whats the difference between Scottish Labour & a see-saw?
Yup, a see-saw has 2 seats 😀
@YESGUY says:9 May, 2015 at 1:10 pm:
”
56 mp’s against over 500 unionist mp’s means our voice will be drowned out.”
It isn’t quite as easy to drown out voices in Westminster as all that, though, Yesguy. The old Fox Alex is with them and he knows the rules perhaps better than any other presently elected member of parliament.
There was that never mentioned by Unionists incident in 1979, when Alex forced William Waldegrave, Chief Secretary to the Treasury, to reveal that Scotland was Subsidising England.
I kid you not. The Rev Stu has it saved for posterity here : –
link to archive.is
Remember too that as the third largest UK party the SNP get two questions by right and they can make them count.
Not to mention a fair old bit of government funding.
It is unbelievable they are still going on about Blair. Brown/Blair destroyed their Party. They are universally disliked and distrusted. They should be in jail. How completely out of touch are these people.
I always think of this verse when ever mention of the BBC `journalist` James `is it,is it`Cook is brought up.
You cannot hope to bribe or twist
(thank God!) the British journalist.
But, seeing what the man will do
unbribed, there’s no occasion to.
The man is an Establishment lickspittle.
So that’s why they bought the water cannons, expecting trouble over their austerity plans!
@Thepnr –
re: coverage of the London protests? Kin right.
We should all be taking note of what’s happening here, and learning lessons. If, for whatever reason, it’s not possible for activists in the centre of London to get out live coverage of what’s happening, that’s intolerable.
Would Kevin/Derek and the Indy-Live people fare any better if the same thing was happening in ‘George’ Square right now? I don’t know…
Put it this way – last September, on the 19th, the only ‘live’ coverage was provided via RT. Rev stuck the link up via Twitter, well before it all kicked-off. Otherwise, would we have been able to see it at all? We would have been forced to assess ‘what really happened’ on the basis of what the MSM eventually provided, and that was, to put it mildly, ‘inaccurate’.
Those folk being kettled in London (last I saw anyway) need our support. But there’s no way we can offer it if we can’t see what’s happening, communicate with them, and spread that communication.
The ‘D-Notice’ system is, ostensibly, ‘advisory’ – it has no legal enforcement powers, and it certainly doesn’t apply to live-streamers. If there’s even a suggestion that the issuing of such ‘advice’ can in any way impede citizen journalists from doing their stuff then we have a major crisis on our hands.
Again – where are the links to what’s going on in London? There must be a lot of live coverage happening, so why can’t we see any of it?
Morag (not that one) the (suck it up one!) is back on radio 5 reminding BBC man Nolan not to associate the SNP with arrogance having only 56 MP’s V Cameron’s 331. etc etc.
Go on Morag! You are a star!
No Sec of State for Scotland yet? They need a person to stand up at Scottish Q’s to our team of good MP’s. Not a job for David Mundell I think.
Radio 5 stuff.
PS:
Riots are being reported (many police casualties blah blah!) 17 arrested and so on. Nothing from the other side yet. Calling for protesters or witnesses to get in touch.
PPS:
Murphy V Union asking for his resignation.
Caller describes labour in Scotland as in meltdown. BUT want’s dim Jim to stay meantime although he goes on to say he should not contest it.
Got a £13 on the lottery. My ex-lib/dem voting parents in-law from Oban (they didn’t vote, chickened out on their vow to vote SNP) sent me a ticket in the post.
They are genuinely stunned at the result, can’t take it in, don’t understand it, Caley Thistle in Europe! 🙂
It wasnt the Greens who saved Mundell. It was the 7000 odd Labour tribalists who could have got rid of him by voting with us.
The irony eh? Vote Labour – get Tory. What a fundilly mundilly great slogan, has the branch thought of it yet?
@ Rock
lets agree to disagree on that one mate ,there are so many possibilities its impossible to say how it would have gone if things had been different,who knows we might have been more than 798 votes behind if it hadnt been for the greens.
FFS England and now you wake up no wonder we are pissed off with you lot,get yourselves organised behind a political party instead of throwing rocks at the police you idiots jeez can we get independence tomorrow please.
If the BBCs exaggerated and selective reporting does not show us that we live in a corrupt Tory police state, I don’t know what does.
One of the first things I think to SNP should do at Westminster is address the biased broadcasting problem.
@Petra says: 9 May, 2015 at 2:04 pm:
Could someone explain to me why Northern Ireland receives more money than Scotland re. the Barnett Formula but it never seems to get a mention.
First understand that no one gets extra money. That is the funding is set as per-person. The basic sum is based upon the English per capita funding. Now understand that as England has no parliament then England gets no block grant and that per-capita funding comes directly in value of services from United Kingdom Ministries.
Now we get to the Barnett Formula – it calculates the worth of the per-capita funding to an English person, multiplies that by the population of each devolved administration and then adds that to the value of the services the English get from the UK Ministries. So per person everyone gets the same value.
As each devolved admin has different devolved functions they each get different total per capita funding.
The reason it is never mentioned is because around the same time as they brought in the Barnett Formula the Tory Government began publishing the GERs Reports, (Government Expendature, Revenue), These were fiddled to prove that Scotland was too wee, too poor and too bloody stupid to run their own counter.
“Additionally as England is allocated money by county and so on Londons share seems to be close to that of Scotlands.”
England AND London gets funded by services provided by the UK Ministries but then they fiddle the way funds are allocated by not funding from the UK ministries. For example English infrastructure is supposed to come from DEFRA but they funded, for example, the £4.1 Bn New London Sewerage System from Government reserves. Then we have the London Cross-Rail and the HS Rail Links and so on. Not to Mentions such as the London Dome, London Olympics and refurbishment of London rail & bus terminals. Grants to Transport for London and funding for National institutions like Museums, art galleries, Ballet, opera, and so on.
@Lesley-Anne
I’m stealing that one for my acquaintances (labour leaning) that I meet in the cafe of a morning.
I like to probe them gently if you know what I mean..well it’s my turn now! Any swings & roundabouts jokes are appreciated too if you have any. 🙂
Enjoyed my ‘National’ today first one on a Saturday.
X-word all done except the long auld Scot’s word 13 letters.
Whirlie?o???e. I think.
How embarrassing but can’t find it in Scots dictionary either.
Davidb
You are right. From the figures of voters in Mundell’s seat the labour vote dropped massively while the Tory vote rose by over two thousand.
It was the defecting Unionist, labour voters who put in Mundell, the Greens were not to blame.
Last item on the Radio Scotland News, before the sport, is about Elaine Paige doing a Vera Lynn tribute for the VE-Day ‘celebrations’.
Sometimes, I wish for death.
Where’s Marcia with the SH front-cover? That might be a tonic…
Callmedave
Could it be whigmaleerie?
Well, I take all your points about these underlying factors but still believe the vagaries of the polls indicated it would be much closer. I long believed the Tories would be the largest party by maybe 20-25 seats, but was – am – stunned by their 99 seat lead over Labour.
In the end Miliband’s geeky awkwardness was a factor, but really Labour were authors of their own electoral fate. Milquetoast leader is one thing but all the triangulated focus group policies, Tory-liteness on the economy and idiotic stunts – !!Vowhenge!! – simply couldn’t conceal it had no original thinking, no vision, no conviction, no gravitas and no balls (except, of course, for Brown’s protege the obnoxious Ed). Labour tramelled by the Daily Mail agenda can never win, even if they win.
And nobody – nobody – foresaw the SNP advance coming as it did. Nine months ago the surge was barely a twinkle in Alex Salmond’s eye but even he would not have dared dream of the full-on passionate love affair that has ensued. The Yes momentum would not be denied so simply morphed slightly and grew into an unstoppable force. Much as I detest Murphy, Alexander, Brown et al, their cack-handed arrogance was just the icing on the cake; I do not think anyone from anywhere in Labour’s ranks north or south of the border could have saved more than a handful of seats.
(Incidentally, a Jambo colleague in Edinburgh South told me Ian Murray is indeed a hard working MP but more to the point is beloved by Hearts fans for his apparently excellent efforts to save that club from extinction.)
Leaders do make a difference, as we know. Nicola taking the helm was one of those rare moments when the right person with the right skills emerges at just the right time. Can she lead Scotland to independence? Well, the arithmetic gives her less control, and there will be some very, very treacherous waters to navigate but – let’s be honest – I don’t think we could have a better captain or indeed a better crew.
Opportunities are on the horizon, cap’n. The slim Tory majority and Labour’s disarray will embolden the blue fruit loops, stirred by Bojo’s leadership maneouvrings and coming in their pants at the thought of an EU exit. Cameron cannot win that: If he canpaigns to stay in, as his big business donors will demand, the swivel-eyed Right will have his head.
So disgruntled Sun and Mail readers will get their referendum to screech and scream and spew endless racist bile in the name of “democracy”. Something tells me it may actually actually become dominated by vicious, angry, hate-filled nationalism – exactly as they tried to depict ours. The only difference might be that this time there will be more a lot more heat and very little light but the headcases won’t get coverage, or indeed their own special epithet. PLus la change.
Given the “uncertainty, families divided, a country tearing itself apart” hand-wringing that will accompany the carnage – Guardian columnists already have their Letraset all neatly laid out for the job to come – we could be forgiven a little bit of Schadenfreude too.
C’est la vie. I know my euros will be on a certain little lady in red to capture the Zeitgeist for herself, for sanity, and for Scotland.
Sunday Herald front page;
link to twitter.com
I’m sorry but this tweet from everyone’s favourite Duncan Hothersall has me completely confused. 😉
Majority of Scots voted for parties other than SNP on Thursday. A fact to conjure with. They came incredibly close to 50%, but just missed.
Surely if, as Hothersall categorically states, the votes for other parties were the majority i.e. they would have MORE than 50% then the percentage voting for the S.N.P. would be LESS than 50%. Wouldn’t it? 😀
Sunday Herald inside front page:
link to twitter.com
The Scottish polls seem to have been largely as predicted.
Mr Murphy’s legacy to his party:
link to m.youtube.com
Sunday Herald double front page
link to twitter.com
I wonder if the BBC, after their complicity in Murphy’s fake rallies, might try to create fake Labour parties if there is a split in SLAB? Maybe a “good” SLAB (led by Murphy) and a “bad SLAB” (Findlay, Davidson…), rather like how we now have “good banks” and “bad banks” following the financial crisis.
The good thing for the BBC about a split in Labour ranks is that it can provide endless talking points for a party which has one Scottish MP; a chance to fill the screen with Labour, Labour, Labour… endless talk shows, interviews, analysis (after Jackie Bird has quite finished spitting blood following the Magnificent 56). After all, we can’t have any reporting of SNP anti-austerity speeches in the Commons or Salmond running rings round WM Tories…
A second Labour Party might include the likes of Katy Clarke — supposedly genuinely left-wing, but someone who spoke only about herself at the recent CND meeting and, remember, told us that “Scotland had let the Labour Party down”. What Katy meant is that our role was to vote Labour, get to the back of the bus and shut up!
I have noticed an ever increasing trend in the MSM towards fake everything. So I really expect a fake “Labour Party” to be created with the full help of Pathetic Quay. Hopefully (for them) in time for Holywood 2016, to take away votes from SSP, Solidarity, etc.
unchillfiltered at 8.42
They can boycott it if they want. They then lose the vote.The Scottish Parliament can legitimately call a referendum and no permission from the UK government is required in international law which is determined by the UN Charter. You appear to have missed the point
@callmedave (11.04) –
Re National Crossword today –
Is it 12ac? If so, the answer is ‘traikit-tykes’. Yes, it’s from the Warrack Scots Dialect Dictionary, and it means ‘tired or lounging dogs’.
😉
Cadogan Enright at 8.12
Don’t get your point. The chance of any other than an SNP rep winning in Edinburgh South (or any Green winning anywhere )was nonexistent
@Dr Ew (11.12) –
FWIW, IMHO, hear hear.
🙂
Radio 5 live:
Edwina Curry bigging up the Tory idea of having a ‘British human rights Act’ and putting a blue pencil through the ‘European version’.
Got carried away for a moment calling it ‘English Laws’ then ‘British Laws and then ‘UK Law’
I have a feeling that ‘Scots Law’ would not be considered by her it seems. And so it goes!
🙂
Another judder in the tectonic plates on the border about that I think.
@Lesley-Anne says: 9 May, 2015 at 3:38 pm:
“Labour is in good health. People just disagreed with us.”
I had a wee laugh at that too, Lesley-Anne. It reminded me of a wartime cartoon with proud Mum & Dad at a passing out parade of new recruits of a Scottish regiment. Mum is saying to Dad, “A’body’s oot o step but oor Jock”.
“I want to say DR that this is an absolutely astounding remark to make but I’ve seen who made the remark and it’s a case of Situation Normal Keeping Head in Sand syndrome from Hothersall.”
Yep! Same reason for the Mother’s remark at the parade.
Oi! Been busy was saving the crossword for tomorrow morning – stop it.
@Fireproofjim
Thanks for that.. I’ll check it against other words I have used for a mistake. But don’t think so…Coo hark at me no-mishtakes!
Aye the Sunday’s will be full of the usual advice… Scot’s to go forth and multiple. But know what…Bring it on.
Nuclear Alert: Indian Point in New York State (Fire!) 🙁
NI raises £14Billion in tax revenues and gets £8Billion = £22Billion. Pop size (proportionately it is equivalent of Scotland getting £80Billion.
It is the most subsidised part of the UK.
The Unionists in NI destroyed their own economy. Bigotry ruined their economy. The Irish wanted Home Rule. The minority Unionists rejected this, although a Home Rule Bill was bring passed just before the 1WW. This lead to Partition/Troubles which destroyed the NI economy. IR has a far more successful economy.
Scotland raises £54Billion and spends £54Billion. (plus Corp taxes etc paid through UK HQ’s etc) The UK raises £466Billion. The rest of the UK raises £412 and borrows and spends 90Billion.
Scotland loses revenues because of UK policies. Could save on Trident/illegal wars, tax evasion, tax on ‘loss leading’ drink, debt interest repayments.
The tax cuts have lost £134Billion a year. When the ConDems came to power £600Billion was raised in taxes in the UK.
Wales is underfunded £1Billion. It’s close proximity to London is an advantage. People can live in Cardiff/Wales and work in London.
link to rt.com
Noticed at the bottom of the RT report of the austerity protests there’s a video of the EDL March in Walthamstow. Didnt hear much about that either….
Transformer damaged in electrical fault causes fire:
No risk to public. Nuclear Power Station. Indian Point. NY.
Back on thread Edwina also shocked by poll ‘in a good way’
Now discussing the superiority of the Tory Government, plenty of votes in hand.
Tories will deliver further devolution to Strurgeon as long as she can pay for it. Vow certain to come, no referendum and no independence. “Scots can’t take our money to pay for their kids” That’s it folks!
Oh and the vote on Thursday will change nout!
@Dave McEwan Hill
The whole point of a political party is to get members elected who will put forward their policies. The Greens are perfectly entitled to stand in whichever seat they so chose.
You sound extremely sour that SNP failed to win D&G and wish to blame that on the Greens. Well simply, that is ridiculous.
The SNP did the best they could and it was actually a magnificent effort, however it failed to overthrow Mundell. It is no ones “fault” it is simply the result despite our best efforts.
Finally I will say this, there are many many tens of thousands of Labour, Green, Liberal, SSP etc supporters who DID vote SNP. You can not possibly have any idea how many Greens supported SNP this time around.
Your constant moaning about this result just sounds like sour grapes on your part. I thought you were better than that.
Just watched the papers review on SKY
You have to laugh at the way the Torygraph write their so called news and then the way in which the TV media report it as fact
An interview with former First Minister Alex Salmond in which he was asked “Do you think this will bring Independence closer” to which he replied “yes” and then went on to qualify his statement in terms on which Nicola Sturgeon has laid out
which we all know
The Torygraph then changes a few words (well all of them really) to create an entirely different meaning and headline with which to inflame their reader and once again basically cause trouble
The reason I know so assuredly these words they report as fact are NOT is I heard every word of that interview with Alex Salmond and what they report is a large and defamatory LIE of the first order
Perhaps I could have hit the journalist with an egg or even a piece of deadly cardboard with a slogan on it ( these are the worst kind i’m told )and made myself the subject of the story by inciting a riot which we Scotsmen are more prone to do in a violent manner than our cousins in Englandshire
then so to do may have deflected the tissue of lies written by that aforementioned Budgie cage droppings collector of a newspaper and then accorded to our former
First Minister
And BTW JK Rowling again, is it not possible this woman will ever learn to stop causing trouble with her misunderstanding on how Twitter works
It seems that Free Speech is only accorded to the wealthy and or famous
If poor people do it it’s abuse
Also JK the SNP did at no time abuse you or cause you to be abused and to say they did is slander so think on love
unless you’d like to contribute to SNP fundraising by default
Ooh I could crush a grape…
Just caught part of an item on reporters at my pal’s house. I was heading home and went through there lounge on the way out where his wife had the TV on. They were saying something about Salmond having , “Slapped Sturgeon down”, but I don’t know what it was supposed to be about.
Frankly I don’t wear it, for the party rules strictly bar any elected member from criticising any other elected member and I just cannot see Salmond stepping across that line.
The Scottish GERS figures have only been published since 2000 – the Scottish Parliament. (incomplete) The UK Gov said they could publish separate figures (a lie). They always claim there are no separate figures when they know they will be caught out.
That is how Thatcher could secretly hid the Oil figures. ‘This must be kept secret’. Spent the Oil Revenues on London S/E, Canary Wharf and Tilbury Docks etc. Labour could keep the McCrone Report secret. A total deception. The Scottish Secretary appointed by and colluded with Westminster. Scotland would have been Independent years ago if the truth had been known. The figures couldn’t be googled (or whatever) No Internet.
Who elected Edwina Curry? She lost long ago over an egg stink.
John Silver says:
“I know it’s not the done thing to criticise Stu here”
Now that’s pish for a start!
Cross words from Paula Rose 🙁
OK X-word embargo now on. Sorry 🙁
I’ll wait to Monday it’ll be like ‘until Santa comes’.
My partner completed another populous on-line poll about the election. I don’t pry, not my business, but it was all about who you voted for and did you vote for the party you normally would or tactically. etc.
It was the SNP Scottish Gov who published the GERS figure. They go into power and opened up the books. They went back to 2000 to see what was going on. Got the McCrone Report released. The Thatcher papers were only released last year under the 30 years Secret Act. Thatcher used the Official Secrets Act to hide the deceit. Thatcher took the equivalent of £Billions. She cancelled an Oil pipe-line wasting the equivalent of £Billions of Gas. The Gas was burnt off. Thatcher destroyed every manufacturing base in Scitland. Thatcher’s economic policy was unemployment in Scotland was a price worth paying for prosperity and jobs in the South. A policy continued now.
Some people do not realise how important an SNP Gov is in Scotland, especially to protect the vulnerable.
It was Westminster that established the EU Human Rights Law. It is Westminster who disobeys it.
Call me Dave,
Erm, I think that you will find that Ian is right.
He compiled the crossword! (smiley thing).
Robert Peffers,
The nonsense about Alex Salmond slapping down Nicola, is just that, nonsense. It seems this is the new tactic by the britnats, to try to seed division.
What they do not seem to know of course, is that Nicola worked as Salmond’s deputy for many, many years, her selection as leader was something he approved of and the two of them are good friends.
That tory clown David Torrance was on the BBC this morning basically trying the same thing saying that there was a deep resentment between them, but that apparently they hid it well.
It is baloney, of the very highest order.
Robert (Peffers) many thanks for taking the time to respond to my post about the Barnett Formula. So much to take in and internalise especially as I don’t have a clue about financial affairs / economics. Will have to do my homework! What’s clear however is that we require, it’s essential, to have our own Scottish Broadcasting Service to get the truth out there.
I don’t think Labour are listening yet, check out one of the front runners to replace Miliband.
link to archive.is
call me dave says:
9 May, 2015 at 11:04 pm
X-word all done except the long auld Scot’s word 13 letters.
Whirlie?o???e. I think.
The Whirlies is the name given to a large (could be eight road) roundabout in East Kilbride. A whirlie is a close to the surface coal mine of which the were many in Lanarkshire.
@Robert Peffers,
Made up story during a press review Robert.It is related to an interview Alex did today ,stating that he felt independence was inevitable,and sooner rather than later.
They then quote this as a contradictory standpoint to Nicola who has stated that this election is not about independence.
Typical press,making stories up on the hoof to suit their own viewpoint.
Remind me, what IS the point of continually polling the electorate?
If anyone can be bothered I have read that that stupid ignorant racist bitch Katie whatsherface is now calling for the death penalty for Nicola Sturgeon. 😀
I tell you if this bitch had a brain two short planks of wood would STILL be 100 times more intelligent than her! 😛
The article is in the Daily Record … apparently!
I see May wants to resurrect her Frankenstein Stasi snoopers charter. Cameron said he wants to Scotland to be the strongest devolved government in the world. I trust that includes privacy and human rights legislation. We didn’t vote anything close to Tory. We don’t need their nonsense here.
Gary says:
Remind me, what IS the point of continually polling the electorate?
Job creation perhaps? 😉
The lies Thatcher told. The lies and deceit are astounding. Blair/Brown/Cameron and the rest are professional liars. Just about every word they utter is a lie. Greedy, arrogant, conceited and ignorant. Thatcher caused the Banking crash. Demutualised the Building Societies. Deleveraged the Banks. Sold off utilities. Now in the hands of foreign State run companies. Sold off council houses and didn’t build more. Thatcher started civil war with the miners. Now coal is half the price of (imported) Gas. Thatcher left 3million unemployed and interest rates at 15%.
The Tories are printing money to buy votes and creating more debt. There is no real growth just more debt. They are lying. Blair/Brown/Cameron are the same. The money they waste. The National debt is what everyone owns. Mortgages/loans etc. The National assets are £8Trillion.
Ken500
Re the Human Rights Act, it was officially embodied in uk law only back in 1998, and it was an extension, or recognition on the European Convention on Human Rights. Uk was way behind many other civilised countries in implementing the H rights act. We are very close and likely to lose it, dangerous times, we should all be extremely concerned to say the v least, as you mention.
#2
Ken500
Re the Human Rights Act, it was officially embodied in uk law only back in 1998, and it was an extension, or recognition on the European Convention on Human Rights. Uk was way behind many other civilised countries in implementing the H rights act. We are very close and likely to lose it, dangerous times, we should all be extremely concerned to say the v least, as you mention.
Ya know, I think we should let Cameron/Murdoch et al continue to stir up hatred of the Scots by the English. An Indy Ref for Scotland held in England would pass with a huge majority about now…
🙂
Yep, the “chaos” claim needs to be investigated, along with the general attitude towards the First Minister.
AGITATING, PROVOCATIVE, SINISTER, from a State broadcaster.
A FALSE STATE OF MENACE WAS BEING ROLLED OUT WITH MEDIA ACTING AS PARTNERS TO ALL, EXCEPT THE SNP.
I thought there were strict guidelines for ALL govt / public employees regarding impartiality..
The Beeb, now less trusted than ever, will now move some employees around, following such blatent bias from an entire department.. They will keep it internal.
PATHETIC
THIS ISSUE IS A RED LINE FOR ME..
Democracy only came to Scotland in the year 2000, (the Scottish Parliament) when Scotland had any (limited) control over it’s affairs. Scotland is out voted 10 to 1 in Westminster. It’s a joke. Along with the lies and deception. A disgrace. There as always been Englsh votes for English Laws while they, secretly, fleeced Scotland,
Well put, alternatively… maybe one for the Tartan Army
You can stick your Tory nonsense up your arse.
The British established the European Humans Rights Convention/Act after 11WW.
The illegal wars and destabilising of other countries, especially in the Middle East causes the migration into Europe. Westminster causes the misery and migration and then complains about it.
France, Britain and the US causes the migration. Other European countries have to deal with it,
Chunkymark manages to say what I felt much better than I could at 07:00 on Friday morning. Feel the emotion.
link to youtube.com
@ Mealer at 6.34
I discovered yesterday that exit polls are conducted by giving voters leaving the polling places duplicates of the ballot paper (another opportunity for fraud? They must be a different colour or something) and asking them to vote again the same way as they have just really done. There is no scope for a demographic breakdown.
@ joemcg at 8 something
There were 31 Green candidates, not 59, so there was an opportunity to choose where to field someone. Only 3 of them kept their deposits (2 in Edinburgh, 1 in Glasgow), so although I reluctantly agree with those who have said they had the right to stand (independence is not the party’s priority and there was a low-key Green No campaign last year; I have to accept that they had no real incentive to help the SNP), it was a very expensive exercise for no great gain, in my opinion.
@crazycat
The SNP started out as a fringe party, hard work and good management has taken them a long way.
The Greens and any other party are of course entitled to stand wherever they like.
From small acorns giant oaks may grow. Haven’t the SNP proved that?
There are many in Scotland who are not SNP supporters that put there cross in the SNP box. Never forget that, I reckon now you have 50% of the “traditional” Labour vote.
Do not take it for granted but embrace it. Prove it, else like slowly melting snow it will be gone.
Just as you think sLabour lies can’t get worse you learn these types of thing’s and then you say to your self what.
You liebour didn’t even give us this, our own parliament, this is why you will loose all the time, lie lie lie lie.
link to tinyurl.com
Has anyone looked at the RT story about London riots from Scottidog it says blah blah SNP supporters ….surely not, it must be a mistake. Why would SNP supporters be involved in the austerity riots in London… I really really hope we Scots are not involved,at least not quite so soon.
Just trying to visualise how things will pan out at Westminster in future.
Will the Labour Party at Westminster now oppose austerity cuts, privatation of the NHS, Fracking, TTIP, bedroom tax, renewal of Trident and so on. If not, and the Scots are seen to do so, many, many English people will be totally incensed.
A time too for the Scots to enlighten the English as to what has been going on in relation to many issues (hidden from them previously) not least of all how much we Scots have contributed to the UK Treasury coffers.
I’m also hoping that many English people, who have been brainwashed by the Media, will see that we are fair-minded, caring, highly intelligent and extremely civilised as a Nation.
Individuals like Jim Murphy manipulated so many people via the BBC / MSM especially South of the border into thinking 50% of the Scots (including Labour supporters) are nothing short of a bunch of aggressive morons. In doing so he perpetuated the same view held by many English people of ALL Scots. Did he therefore reinforce that way of thinking and contribute to undermining Milibands chance of winning down South?
The Scottish branch office of the UK Labour Party, including those who went to Westminster, have perpetuated the too wee, too poor, too thick Scottish myth for so, so long. One wonders if this is a form of projecting feelings about themselves onto a Nation.
The decades of Scottish Labour YES men / women going to Westminster, sitting on their arkies, claiming massive expenses (more so than the Tories) and doing nought for the Scots is now well and truly over. It just sticks in my craw to think that they’ll get thousands in ‘redundancy’ payments and a big buck pension (voted to raise it by 25% a few months ago) whilst the rest of us were being hit by austerity measures.
The consequences of the Tories winning the Election isn’t over by a long shot. Friends in England reckon they won through postal vote rigging. People will protest every time the Tories try to implement an unpopular policy. Some groups could use the situation as a reason for rioting (God forbid). The Government could be brought down with a UK wide General Strike.
I hope to see our representatives at Westminster, each and every last one of them, set an example by behaving properly, taking a reduction in wage and claiming the least amount in expenses.
Some of us, thousands, worked our absolute butts off day and night for no wage whatsoever (out of pocket in fact) to get them there. We voted them in. We’ll be watching what they do. Our expectations of them are high. Very high indeed.
@Lesley Anne
Katie Hopkins is mentally ill. I really mean that. There are very clear symptoms of a personality disorder that crages attention and will do anything to achieve it. The complicity of the media is like a publican giving Gazza a free bar – good publicity perhaps but nine below zero on the humanity scale.
Her comments are designed to provoke outrage because it’s all she’s got, and I suspect now Scotland will be her new project. One day she will tweet or spout something so out there that it will be an incitement to hatred or violence that will backfire.
Don’t let it be anything to do with us. Really she is more to be pitied than scorned, but the best policy is to ignore her.
For her sake and others I hope she seeks help or, perhaps, people who care about her have her sectioned.
LouisB you are right. The propaganda being used against the SNP has to be brought to an end RIGHT NOW. Stamped out right now.
Threats and accusations against us in general and more so our First Minister should be dealt with by the Police.
We should all be monitoring the MSM and recording all they say and do (divvy up between us) and report to the appropriate authority.
MSM reports that try to divide the Scots as a Nation, the Scots and English or generate racism, hatred, harassment or violence should be reported.
People like JK Rowling (highly disappointed in her) have accused SNP supporters of online abuse without establishing if this is true or not (anyone can hide behind a pseudonym). Newspapers like the Daily Record then publish her complaints, as an example, without seeking verification of fact. The Law Society in Scotland would come down on Solicitors behaving in such a way like a ton of bricks.
If the same comments were used against Muslims, but they won’t, there would be riots on the streets.
Like you I’ve just about had enough of it and we should all be wise enough to see that some of the tactics being utilised are akin to the Nazi Propaganda Machine that was used to demonise, discredit and scapegoat the Jews.
I’ll fine tune this essay and repost it once I get some sleep!
link to grousebeater.wordpress.com
Hmm. One of the most prominent persons sending abuse to Rowling uses the hashtag #VoteUkip
link to dailyrecord.co.uk
The political demise of Ian Davidson hopefully heralds a much needed change in the Scottish Affairs select Committee. Perhaps now we can have one which lives up to its title.
They have been responsible, IMV, for misleading the public and even for misleading politicians in the past. An anti-democratic and malign influence.
They are allowed non Scottish based MPs however, they had 8 Scottish and 4 non Scottish members. Now they are faced with either stuffing it with non Scottish MPs or undergoing a paradigm change.
James123 @ 9.44pm
He would have been on life support with a 50/50 chance of pulling though. 🙂
_________________________________________________________________
Rock says @9.49pm
“Those 839 Green voters might not have voted SNP but it still leaves a sour taste that a Tory MP hung on with 798 votes.”
Get over yourself Rock, had the Greens stood down in every constituency we would have been wide open to accusations of gerrymandering, and we dont want to be tarred with THEIR brush from the off do we? single representatives from the other three does more to highlight how little support they have in this country than non at all in my opinion.
______________________________________________
Thepnr says@ 10.17pm
“Support Independence Live and help get the real truth to us manky fuckers!”
Speak fur yersel,
Aa waash ma hands afore Aa eat! 😉
link to dekku.nofatclips.com
____________________________________________________
Call me Dave says @10.18pm
“He compared Mr Murphy’s campaign to “dad-dancing in the most modern nightclub in the city of Glasgow”.”
What?
like this you mean?
link to youtube.com
T be fair to Andy Kerr, that was a good analogy of that clowns total lack of understanding of the Scottish mindset.
___________________________________________________
Robert Peffers says@ 12.01am
“They were saying something about Salmond having , “Slapped Sturgeon down”, but I don’t know what it was supposed to be about.”
It was Alex’s response to the question put to him in South Queensferry when he was asked “do you think this result brings independence closer?”
His response,
“YES!”
___________________________________________________________
Petra says @2.31am
“It just sticks in my craw to think that they’ll get thousands in ‘redundancy’ payments and a big buck pension (voted to raise it by 25% a few months ago) whilst the rest of us were being hit by austerity measures.”
Dont give them ideas Petra, the next thing you know they’ll be reporting in the press that we’ve added to the national debt by forcing all those poor MP’s out of a job and causing the debt to rise with all the redundancy payments!
“I hope to see our representatives at Westminster, each and every last one of them, set an example by behaving properly, taking a reduction in wage and claiming the least amount in expenses.”
George Kerevan has already committed to giving the bulk of his salary to charity.
_______________________________________
Dr Ew says @2.33am
“Katie Hopkins is mentally ill. I really mean that. There are very clear symptoms of a personality disorder that crages attention and will do anything to achieve it. The complicity of the media is like a publican giving Gazza a free bar – good publicity perhaps but nine below zero on the humanity scale.”
Couldnt agree more Dr Ew, the best way to treat that idiot is to ignore her.
________________________________________________________
There was a call for another protest at Pacific Quay before the GE which I (among others ) said was bad timing and would simply deflect attention from the election and be potentially harmful,
Well the elections out of the way now and the time is right for that protest, but not a few hundred or a few thousand, we need to flood Glasgow with tens of thousands of people creating hell about the BBC.
NOW IS THE HOUR LETS DRIVE THESE PEOPLE OUT!
Is it just me or is it strange that the last time the polls apparently “got it wrong” was in 1992 when John Major got back into power? I remember reading an article by Frances Wheen in the Guardian at about that time describing how a friend of his went to vote and was told that his vote had already been cast.
It seemed that the friend lived in an apartment block and that his polling card had been stolen, along with several others in the block.
At the time the Tory party seem to have identified a couple of dozen key marginals where very small changes in the votes could swing the seat, and strangely enough there were reports of similar irregularities in many of these key seats.
I don’t know if anyone could help and find this article. It has obviously stayed in my mind for over 20 years. I think that it was in the Saturday magazine section but I may be wrong.
By the way, can’t really believe the lack of coverage by the BBC of the “disturbances” in London. Obviously an irregular verb.
Ooh er missus
I got an email from this guy apologizing to me for getting beaten, I think he mixed me up with someone who gives a shit.
(this is real and to top it all it was in my junk folder:) )
“Dear John,
This is not the email I wanted to be writing to you today. I am profoundly sorry for the defeat we suffered, and more grateful than I can express for the support that you have shown me, and our party, throughout this campaign.
I take full responsibility for the result of the election, and that’s why it’s absolutely right that I step down as Labour’s leader today.
It has been the utmost privilege to serve this party as your leader, and to spend the last four-and-a-half years fighting for the millions of British families who need and deserve the fairness, compassion and opportunity that only a Labour government can provide.
Yet while defeats are hard, we are a party that will never stop fighting for the working people of this country. Britain needs a strong Labour Party and it is the responsibility of each of us to continue the fight. The stakes are too high to wait for others to lead.
It isn’t simply leaders who achieve change, it is people that make change happen. I will never give up on that idea, I will never give up on our cause and I will never give up on our fight.
Thank you again for everything, and please, keep on fighting too. The course of progress and social justice is never simple or straightforward, and change happens because people like us don’t give up.
Yours,
Ed”
As regards the new SNP MP’s, it is now up to each one of them individually to be the VERY best constituency MP. This, regardless of politics will ensure they can retain their places at the next election in five years time, and effectively ‘lock out’ Labour for good.
As regards Labour in England, I am genuinely dismayed to see Labour people already calling for the party to stop being ‘so left wing’. Really???
If the Tories keep lurching to the right, the last thing we need is Labour following them, by supposedly adopting the ‘centre ground’ which keeps on moving further and further to the right. Instead we need a principled Labour party who stand against the neoliberal consensus, to say enough! to the right wing movement of (especially) England. Most importantly, Labour needs to stop being so freaking afraid to argue for socialist policies. Only then will they have any chance of success.
In this last election, Labour tried so hard to appeal to typical Tory voters down south, and it just didn’t work. They really, really need to return to what their founding principles are. Otherwise they will remain an unelectable pale, tepid and weak impersonation of Tories, Tory – lite, red tories, whatever.
Re MP expenses, I disagree with the keep them low suggestions. I hope our new SNP MPs max them out creating the most accessible constituency offices, the most active programme of community engagement and the best staffed constituency teams.
Our MPs need good support in terms of local communications experts, policy officers, researchers and case workers so they can do the best possible job for their constituents. I hope they make the most of their expenses allowance in order to do this.
As for the so called recovery. It is just a bounce back from were it was. It would have happened anyway. Any recovery is just the same as the EU average, except the EU is not printing money. Germany who is doing extremely well and is against it. On average some EU countries are doing well so not so well,for various reasons. The UK unemployment rate is the same as the EU average. The growth rate is achieved by printing money, then leading it. Making services dearer.
eg Germany has 4% unemployment, 7% growth and is in massive surplus. Having not spent so much for years on the military and illegal wars but on the infrastructure and the economy.
The Tory will have a job implementing more unfair austerity. They have no manifesto only vague promises that will not work. See how that goes. The difficult problems start now.
“This message is in your junk folder because you don’t seem to want emails from this sender.”
I liked that one John.
🙂
And thanks for the birthday wishes to the wife.
I’ll be seeing you at the bbc demo’s.
wrt MP’s expenses I’m with you Indigo. Previous MP’s have exploited the system to feather their own nests. The SNP Mp’s should use it to build on the volunteer support that got them where they’re going. We will be around to help keep them honest.
They’re going to a very dangerous place, look at how it corrupted people in the past. I hope they’re only going there temporarily though and will soon be back o help run an independent Scotland.
I agree with all the concerns about the continued ‘monstering’ of the Scots in the MSM, but right now I am more concerned about the Scots we are sending to Westminster.
They will have to be on their guard 24/7 as all the other parties will be trying to portray them as thick jocks who do not know how to behave in civilised society and the MSM will be desperate to trick them into making unguarded comments which can be blown up into a scandal.
BTW did I just hear Tom Harris on Radio5 claiming the SNP were to the right of Labour?
@ Robert Louis
Yeah, heard the same thing RL. More right wing… and they wonder why it all went so wrong (shakes head). More left wing in Scotland and more right wing in order to win the big chair in England.
TA DAH! Has it ever been more obvious that we are in fact two different cultures, two differing bodies politic? You are who you are and the neo liberal model is not us. Labour as a party, is torn between the cultures of two countries and trying to win votes in both by directing their electorates instead of representing their respective electorates.
Who knew?
My response to Ed’s wee homily : A moralizing lecture or admonition that is often tedious or condescending.
“Dear Ed don’t take this the wrong way but regard this as a dear John letter, its over between us, we’ve become different people and as much as I would like to say its been a blast I cant because it hasn’t,
The Labour party in Scotland’s behaviour has been a total disgrace and has shown a complete disregard for the Scottish electorate, hence why you now have one less MP in Scotland that we have Pandas and the combined number of unionist MPs outnumber our pandas by one (at the moment),
the reprehensible attitude the Westminster cabel has displayed towards Scotland shows a thinly veiled disregard for an electorate that supported the Labour party through thick and thin, illegal wars, selling off the family silver, eh gold I mean, raiding the pensions,
Well you know what I mean you were party to it Ed so please enjoy your free time, Im sure (if you ask) there will be a lot of hangers on from Scotland who would be happy to help you with your garden since you will no longer have an expense account to pay for it. yours in expectation of a cold shoulder
John.”
Anything anyone would like me to add before I send it?
It is astounding how ill researched and ignorant some Westminster politicians are, especially the Party leaders. Despite £Billions being spent on administration. It is astounding that Pollsters and so called BBC political experts, receiving £Millions of public money, do not realise that standing in approx 300 seats as opposed to 60 seats will increase vote share but not necessarily win seats. The SNP were winning seats on massive vote share and percentages, plus increased voting averages. UKIP were not. (average). It is elementary Maths.
Pollsters should be banned in the Purdah period. They are being used to manipulate the result. Gerrymandering. Undemocratic. Just as the right wing Press manipulate and control with an undemocratic share of the MSM.
The vulnerable will not be unfairly targeted in Scotland or the Union is finished. Or the Unionists will destroy their economy as they did in NI.
Who cares about JKR ? If she doesn’t want replies don’t twit. Not everyone cares about her. If you can’t take the heat stay out of the kitchen. Don’t give attention seekers anymore attention.
Here is something I want to through out there (with wide grin and tongue firmly in cheek)
What about having an SNP MP as speaker of the house of commons?
John, perhaps you should put in a bit about Jim Murphy and his Scottish campaign team playing a blinder – for us!
🙂
The only reason Scotland voted Labour was to keep the Tories out. The only reason. Not to endorse Labour. One of two evils. Both duplicitous liars, add in the rest of the Unionist Parties.
I agree totally with Rev. Stuart’s analysis and my reasons are quite simple.
A Data Set, as in these political opinion polls, is raw material. On receiving any data the real work begins initially referring to the accepted accuracy, methodology and time etc.
In the actual analysis these basics must be born in mind.
The Pollster does not make any predictions but provides a snapshot at a particular time. Predictions are the domain of “Experts” like Mr Axelrod
Gerry Parker with our 56 Members of Parliament.there is one well versed in dealing with the corrupt establishment that is Westminster. A certain Alex Salmond,he has never been corrupted and that really ticks them off.
Robert Lewis @8.15
“As regards Labour in England, I am genuinely dismayed to see Labour people already calling for the party to stop being ‘so left wing’. Really???”
Your surprised, REALLY?
The Labour party Robert have lost their soul, they’re not interested in returning to their (out of date in their opinion)
founding principles, oh no no no, they’re only concern is how to get their feet under the table again before they have to go and get some real jobs where it is a requirement that they provide a fair days work for less than a fair days pay unless they’re lucky enough to get directorships in a bank,
The Labour parties only concern Robert is the Labour party,
MAY THEY BURN IN HELL THE LOT OF THEM!
Edward @ 9.20am suggests an SNP MP as Speaker of the House of Commons.
That might be a good job for Wee Eck – certainly the three Unionist parties probably would not mind him being handcuffed by the constraints of the position.
Also, as an acknowledged expert on Erskine-May, he would rule with a firm but fair hand.
@Petra says: 10 May, 2015 at 12:34 am:
“many thanks for taking the time to respond to my post about the Barnett Formula.”
Believe me, Petra, Barnett’s Formula is actually far more simple in operation than it is to explain. You are not alone in struggling with the concept. Once the way it works becomes clear the first thing that hits you is that a great many of the people we have elected do not understand it.
Another thing that comes very clear is that the entire set-up of Westminster is designed to be far more complicated that it needs to be and has always been designed to confuse the electorate.
Summing up Barnett, when all four countries were under the UK Ministries we were all supposed to have the same per capita funding but it never worked out that way. It then all depended upon how good the Scottish Office were at arguing Scotland’s corner.
If we had a good Secretary of State we got a better deal. As, of course, so did Wales and Northern Ireland. This was Westminster’s way of playing the non-English countries against each other.
Barnett’s Formula actually should have ended all that but the same old problem was that Westminster was really seen by the main parties as the Parliament of England. Proof of that fact is where was never a Secretary of State for England. In other words the Westminster Ministries were always really run in England, by England for England.
So when devolution was on the way it should have been a four-way split and then every countries could have got the same powers and same per capita funding. With England not getting a devolved parliament they retained all the usual complications.
We are back to Westminster as the Parliament of England, the Ministries being the Ministries of England running England and the per capita funding based upon English Spending.
All they need do to have a workable United Kingdom is to actually properly unite it. Make the Westminster Commons the real parliament of England, end the House of Lords and replace it with an Upper House with just a few elected UK minister from each country to represent each country as the Federal UK Parliament.
Perhaps a First Minister, a Chancellor, a Defence minister and a foreign affairs minister from each UK country. Job done.
Personally I’d rather if Scotland just went her own way and leave the rest to get on with sorting themselves out, (or not – as the case might be).
@john king
I would add in your letter..
“Please also drop the pretence that you are a party for the working class people – your party’s capitulation to the city of London laid rest to that claim well over a decade ago. It was plain to see that labour put the interest of the banking sector first – the only sector which will gain (on the short term) from your pro-austerity stance.”
BBC r4 is worth a listen to right now, SNP either monstered, ignored from now on by that lot. “Nic Sturgeon” mentioned once and real panic in presenters voice in a way I have never heard before. And that’s from a very slick, top of the range, all bells and whistles UKOK BBC propaganda unit, desperation in his silly, plummy, shaky voice.
5 years BBC attack on SNP Scotland, all in one hour.
Just to put some perspective on the votes cast. UKIP approx 5.5k per seat S.N.P 24k per seat. If you cast a bigger net you catch more fish. Sometimes fishing in a smaller pond reaps greater rewards
From: Ed Miliband (onenationpolitics@labour.org.uk) This message is in your junk folder because you don’t seem to want emails from this sender.
Sent: 08 May 2015 16:38:35
To: John (john.dman.king@hotmail.co.uk)
Microsoft SmartScreen marked this message as junk and we’ll delete it after ten days.
Wait, it’s safe!|I’m not sure. Let me check
Dear John,
This is not the email I wanted to be writing to you today. I am profoundly sorry for the defeat we suffered, and more grateful than I can express for the support that you have shown me, and our party, throughout this campaign.
I take full responsibility for the result of the election, and that’s why it’s absolutely right that I step down as Labour’s leader today.
It has been the utmost privilege to serve this party as your leader, and to spend the last four-and-a-half years fighting for the millions of British families who need and deserve the fairness, compassion and opportunity that only a Labour government can provide.
Yet while defeats are hard, we are a party that will never stop fighting for the working people of this country. Britain needs a strong Labour Party and it is the responsibility of each of us to continue the fight. The stakes are too high to wait for others to lead.
It isn’t simply leaders who achieve change, it is people that make change happen. I will never give up on that idea, I will never give up on our cause and I will never give up on our fight.
Thank you again for everything, and please, keep on fighting too. The course of progress and social justice is never simple or straightforward, and change happens because people like us don’t give up.
Yours Ed.
My reply
Dear Ed don’t take this the wrong way but regard this as a dear John letter,
Its over between us,
we’ve become different people(s) and as much as I would like to say its been a blast I cant because it hasn’t been,the Labour party in Scotland’s behaviour has been a total disgrace and has shown a complete disregard for the Scottish electorate, hence why you now have one less MP in Scotland that we have Pandas and the combined number of unionist MPs outnumber our pandas by one,(Barry White cd’s on order) the reprehensible attitude the Westminster cabel has displayed towards Scotland shows a thinly veiled disregard for an electorate that supported the Labour party through thick and thin, illegal wars, selling off the family silver, EH gold I mean, raiding the pensions,
Well you know what I mean you were party to it Ed so please enjoy your freetime, Im sure (if you ask) there will be a lot of hangerson from Scotland who would be happy to help you with your garden since you will no longer have an expense account to pay for it.,
It has to be said not all of your decisions were bad ones though Ed, your shunting Saint Jim the delusional off to the Siberian salt mines (aka) SLAB was inspired, a very quiet man who seemed switch personas to Ian Paisley having what only be described as a meltdown when someone sticks a megaphone in his hand, and then his insightful tweets such as the never to be forgotten( trust me) “Im astonished how easy it has been to outwit the SNP “,
I genuinely hope you enjoy your retirement from Politics Ed but sorry to say I cant say the same for my (ex) MP a certain Mr Gordon Brown who I hope does not enjoy all that I may wish for you as he CERTAINLY after his ( I think Im going to sneeze ahahahahVOW sorry about that it, I seem to have had a cold ever since I walked my dog along the beach at Dalgety Bay, those bloody tapes saying KEEP OUT are a nuisance though,) does not deserve to be remembered fondly.
Yours in expectation of being facepalmed
john king
Will that do Gerry? 🙂
O/T
Good article about how the bbc is infiltrated. We need media devolution.
link to nicholaswilson.com
ScottieDog say
@ john king @9.54
Sorry ScottieDog forgot to add that, and I have now posted it minus stamp of course attached to a pishy old matress! 🙂
@Ken500 says: 10 May, 2015 at 1:17 am:
“There as always been English votes for English Laws while they, secretly, fleeced Scotland”.
Correct, Ken500. I’ve posted already proof of that. Before Devolution we had a Secretaries of State for Scotland, for Wales & for N. Ireland who squabbled at Westminster to get their countries funding share. Notice there was never a Secretary of State for England nor an English Office.
In other words Westminster has always been run in England, by England for England. Devolution should have been a four way split and England’s, non-elected as such, parliament removed from the United Kingdom Parliament and the United Kingdom Parliament made a proper federal Parliament.
To my mind that was the last chance that the United Kingdom parliament had to sort itself out and it blew it big time.
On your claim of always fleecing Scotland remember this from the Rev Stu?
link to wingsoverscotland.com
I heard Lords McConnel and Reid laying off about how the Labour Party has to change.I hear too many lords prattling on about working class,as if this somehow excuses greed and selfishness.
Don’t know if anyone has already posted a link to this odd, but accurate, Chinese appraisal of the outcome.
Love the Unicorn 😉
link to facebook.com
Heard it all now, Murnaghan just interviewed some foaming at the mouth Tory claiming that the SNP is a MARXIST movement and that English taxpayers paid for Scots to go to Lanzerote!
Sorry didn’t get the twats name as I was picking my jaw up from the floor! (package was around 10.15 – 10 25 am)
I fail to see how the printed press and digital media can still demonise the SNP in Scotland after this landslide,surely it must come to an end now? Not holding out much hope though.
Feel the lurve! Smell the fear.. 🙂
link to archive.is
It’s interesting, when a organisation or party suffers such a huge defeat as Scottish Labour did, it is usual and useful to go away and examine the result, converse with members in private.
Scottish Labour goes straight to the newspapers and BBC, confirming that the BBC and various newspapers are the Labour Party in Scotland.
Call me Dave@ 10.37am
I have a question (for the Herald)
Is it possible to be BOTH a communist AND a xenophobe at the same time?
O/T: Interesting to see plans for a major new film and TV production facility outside Edinburgh.
David Davis is lying. Saying Scotland raises less tax and spends 15% more.
Scotland raises £54Billion and spends £54Billion. (plus Corp tax etc which goes through London HQ’s etc). The UK raises £466Billion in tax revenues. The rest of the UK raises £412Billion and borrows and spends £90Billion. Why are the BBC not checking and giving accurate facts, which can be easily googled, but giving out (knowingly) inaccurate facts. Why are Westminster politicians so ignorant?
Thatcher used the Official Secrets Act to contain her deceit and lying. Scotland’s revenues are controlled by Westminster. The Scottish Gov could follow different policies, saving revenues on Trident/illegal wars, tax evasion, a tax on ‘loss leading’ drink, less debt repayment.
If there’s a prize ror crassness in this election campaign it must surely go to the idiotic Ruth Davidson. Straddling a killing machine with the Union Jack flying at her back, a la Thatcher, takes the biscuit. Time this ill-advised, self-opinionated non-entity resigned, got herself a proper job and became a useful member of society.
Labour will indeed change.In reality it is no longer a Party serving the ordinary people. It has become a party which aims to serve a particular demographic instead.
If this leaves out the vulnerable and disenfranchised then too bad.
I now laugh when I hear the liars say they joined to make a difference to Society.
You have. The most vulnerable are now even more so .Congratulations.
The real spirit and soul of Labour has indeed passed on,and sits with its founders in heaven, to be replaced by the very thing they fought against.Full circle indeed.
joemcg 10.35
Around a quarter of voters in Scotland,probably an awful lot of them older folk,voted Labour.They’re the Daily Records target market.I expect the Record to give them what they’re used to.They read the Record and vote Labour because that’s what they’re used to.Other papers have their own,mainly older,mainly unionist markets.The owners of some newspapers may take a decision to try to expand their market into younger,more progressive areas but I doubt that,given the readership figures for The National.
From the start of the socialist movement in 19c it was highjacked by the chattering classes (Oscar Wilde) by the time of the first labour government in 1924
The intelligentia had seen who the opposition was and tried to counter it. The problem for labour was the tories continued to the right and labour had to follow.
All that labour and trades union have done is to navel gaze. Introspection is looking at why it went wrong not what was wrong in the first instance. You cannot reform from within when all are saying “It was the right message but put badly”
labour is broken and unfixable it needs to splinter. The left need to form a proper socialist party for the people by the people. Not some talking shop for the privliged with a guilty conscience.
Good luck U.K labour in trying to achieve this . You lost your shirt off your back on Thursday. I think you will lose your home (Scotland) before you realise politics is about people not policies
Election of Murphy as leader.
Some information to pore over here.
link to scottishlabour.org.uk
Notable in there for me is Tom Clarke and Pamela Nash.
🙂
Before clamouring for ref2 we need to continue the person to person dialogue in the aftermath of the tory win. Large swathes of our population are still only beginning to understand the WM arithmetic that locks out the scottish political will inside a UK majority of a different colour. As pennies have been dropping at different rates since 2012 this is where we go. It has to be done like everything else that actually works and matters at ground level. As the mindshift and continued political education of the people continues we prepare the ground for the political leaders to make the call when to have another ref. All indy parties should however ensure they leave the door open in their 2016 manifestos to have the option to call a ref2 at a time of their collective choosing or not if appropriate. The indy parties should also commit to cross party co-operation on a future ref2 to ensure that squabbling about ref2 does not become a focus of the media and fuel energy in a destructive direction.
Yesterday’s Daily Mail carried a story about the Tories being outraged at the pro Labour BBC Bias?
The writer demands that the new government’s first action should be to clear out the Labour affiliated management, or cut off any
contributions from the tax payer!
Remarkably we have found something we might have in common with
the Tories. I agree that we should work on this together ASAP.
I feel certain the pre-referendum lies and distortion spewed out from this corrupt organisation gave the No campaign the 5% margin that kept Scotland as a remote English colony!
It’s fascicle that the BBC are only accountable to themselves!
As many of us now know, they have 4 levels of complain which all assure you that you are wrong, you wasted their time, and any event they are intellectually superior and you have no powers.
Dr John Robertson would be the idea candidate for this job as
he already has an extensive, and comprehensive portfolio of
their duplicity over the last 2 years.
I would also like to thank England’s Loughbourgh University for
compiling their own report on these matter and again they are undeniably guilty of breaking every aspect of their “Charter”.
From WoS last night, I seen footage of the Riots in Westminster.
On tuning into the BBC and Sky News some hours later, there was not a single word about events of this magnitude?
We have no legitimate TV or Radio news channel that acts as a neutral, yet investigative reporter on matters of national interest! We really need one and measures must be taken to supply one.
Please see the link below where Tory Krankie and the “Independent” headline the news that there is Intimidation across Scotland’s Polling Stations?
Blatant unqualified LIES designed purely to skew a so called
fair and democratic election.
We should have a government watchdog who can prosecute, fine, imprison any editor fueling these lies.
link to independent.co.uk
“The actual final result was 36% for the Tories and 29% for Labour. One doesn’t have be a particularly skilled mathematician to note that that is within the margin of error of the range of fluctuation.”
I’m not sure what you mean by the range of fluctuation but the margin of error is +/- so the errors should average out over many polls, or at least diminish since you’re effectively increasing the sample size. Since the average poll result was 33% for labour, i.e. an average error of 4%, this means most of the polls were outside the margin of error, at least for Labour’s result. You can confirm this by looking at the individual poll results – only 5 polls were within 3% of 29% for Labour. What’s more, all the polls overestimated Labour’s result which shows this isn’t statistical error but a bias in the polls.
When you look at what an error of this size can mean in terms of seats it’s clear the polls were highly inaccurate.
I think it’s quite encouraging that the polls were wrong since politicians nowadays pay far too much attention to them and not enough to their own convictions.
galamcennalath
Thanks for the link watched the Chinese take on things. My wife (Chinese) thought hilarious but accurate
@Petra says: 10 May, 2015 at 3:13 am:
” … Like you I’ve just about had enough of it and we should all be wise enough to see that some of the tactics being utilised are akin to the Nazi Propaganda Machine that was used to demonise, discredit and scapegoat the Jews.”
Believe me, Petra, the propaganda of the Southern Establishment has been going on since at least as long as British recorded history and even before there was an England. I’m working on an article just now about how British history is almost all utter claptrap.
For example if you were to check out the Roman’s recorded history about their troubles with Boadicea you find at least two Roman versions that are quite different.
Roman records were politically biased to enhance people’s political careers back in Rome. Much history has even been written hundreds of years after the events. Check out the Reverand Bede.
Much archaeological evidence is misunderstood by academics who have really no experience of real life. School to Uni and into the field and the past. Here’s a fact, there is less than 2% of Roman remains that are Roman Villas so 98% of Britain in Roman times is more or less neglected as academics concentrate upon Roman Villas and things like Hadrian’s Wall. So how were the aboriginal Britons living as they most certainly were not in Villas unless as slave servants.
We have been subjected to the South Britain Establishment propaganda ever since and it is a good deal more sophisticated than anything the Third Reich threw at us. At the moment we have the likes of Cameron continuing the very old deliberate misuse of the terms Kingdom, Country, England, UK, Britain and Great Britain.
Remember too the words of the Lone elected Tory MP from Scotland.
“The Treaty of Union extinguished the Kingdom of Scotland and renamed the Kingdom of England as The United Kingdom”
The Treaty says nothing of the sort but Mundell is quoting from a UK government funded paper written by a couple of paid professors who make such idiotic claims.
You hit the nail on the head – we need to reverse the propaganda for it has never been so intense nor so easy to propagate.
@call me dave: Just read that article. It appears some people south of the border really hate us and some trully vile comments there. Although the guy who said, ‘ Scotland is subsidised by England but I want us to stay in the union’ Not sure I understand the logic!
Fred 10.51,
I completely disagree.Ruth Davidson is doing a pretty good job.That picture of her astride the tank was a brilliant image.It encapsulates what the Tory party in Scotland is all about.Maggie.They love her.
My contrabution to Labours misery
RE: Thank you dear john e mail
Actions
ronald anderson
11:07
To: onenationpolitics@labour.org.uk
Ed, I gives me great pleasure to read your ( unsolicited e mail) you & your minions bleed the People who you claimed to represent. I will continue to work tirlessly to clear out the remnants of the Labour Party in Scotland ie Local Councilors of the now defunct Slab,& infill the Grave with fast setting Concrete,never again to darken my land of Scotland. I will make one consession however I will scatter some Pee the Bed seeds ( dugs N cats just love tae pish in them). Stink in HELL.
@ cherry
It wasnt us cherry we were to busy celebrating to be bothered throwing stuff at the police in some protest march in London ,what you saw was the half arsed occupy movement still plodding about in the dark ,but no doubt we will get the blame since we are at fault for all the worlds ills apparently.
Time the occupy lot got themselves a political wing then they could do some political damage ,getting beat up by the police will just keep happening until they do,go shape the green party into your own and learn something from us Scots,if they want to fight westminster they have to do it politically.
Just checking folks.
Has Gordon Brown (Scotlands Chumpion / Gaurdian of Britain) been interviewed for his comments on the mighty Labour performance.
You know; since was never shy to comment on the run up to the vote, – surely he wants to comment now !
The 49 new recruits are all as sharp as tacks and once they have finished their five-year course at the Alex Salmond Westminster Finishing School, 56 SNP MPs will be like having 300 Labour MPs!
Can you imagine what sort of a politician Mhairi Black is going to be in 20 years’ time?!?
P.S. Loving all the Labour chattering classs asking: what went wrong?? One person on Twitter says: BBC bias against us! Not up here, luv, the Red Pawns should have won 59 seats on BBC bias. I could help them out by offering a few salient points… but I won’t! Although I suggest they all have a nice cup of soothing green tea in their “control immigration” mugs…
Chunky Mark for Prime Minister!!!!!
Not sure about an SNP MP being Speaker, or one of his/her deputies BUT the SNP’s position as the third largest party in the house should give it representation on all the Committees and, importantly, chairmanship of at least two committees.
The SNP will then be in a position to scrutinise legislation, question civil servants and any witnesses called before the committees.
They will also have two questions at PMQs and a greater right to table questions in all debates.
Therefore great potential to make their points and have their voices heard.
Gravity will take care of Mr Mundell, time is not on his side.
News breaking of a big investigation into election events involving George Galloway and his rival L!ebore candidate.
Meanwhile, c’mon folks, it’s extremely important we look after our own.
Can you spare a few bob for the poor mans pot?
https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/going-forward–2
Inegalitarian societies pursue policies that concentrate wealth in the hands of the few such that a large section of society is virtually unaware of existence.Piketty (2014, ‘Capital’) particularly singles out the UK as such a society-the wealthiest 1% owns 60% of the wealth. He also argues that ‘concentration (of wealth)is already a source of powerful political tensions, which are often difficult to reconcile with universal suffrage’.
The elements of information, influence,social credentials and reinforcement are the ingredients of social capital that if used responsibly reinforce social worth as an individual and a social group. WM should think very carefully about the conflict between equity and efficiency and who gains and loses from economic policy as the inequality gap widens.
WM have pressing problems on their doorstep – London is the inequality capital of England with the highest rates of child poverty in the UK.A fact that clearly did not escape the anti-austerity protestors yesterday.
Scotland is ideologically now existing in a parallel universe to WM. We are concerned about equality of opportunity tomorrow because we are concerned about inequality of outcome today- that will be a message that the 56 newly elected SNP MPs will deliver to WM. Scotland also understands that there is something called society and for better or worse we are all part of it. Many of our SNP MPs served their apprenticeship in the YES movement and the ethos of that amazing campaign that politically educated an entire population will be embodied by them.
There is a relationship between income inequality and the role of money in determining the outcome of democratic elections ‘the dance of ideology and unequal riches’-Scotland is dancing to a different tune and will be doing a fast reel to exit the union – all the YES groups should be choosing their partners and join in.
@ effijy
“It’s fascicle that the BBC are only accountable to themselves!
As many of us now know, they have 4 levels of complain which all assure you that you are wrong, you wasted their time, and any event they are intellectually superior and you have no powers.”
Yep – My ex MP Tom Clarke ( Oh how I love saying that )replied to my letter complaining about the bbc by saying that I should go to the bbc website and make use of their complaints facility. So much for him having helped every family in Coatbridge. His replies to other letters were equally weak, and I was once told by one of his staff “don’t push your luck ( Hi Sam! 🙂 )
Perhaps bbc Scotland will reflect on their performance wrt the SNP, they could have had an ally in the SNP, but they made their bed, they’ve now got to lie in it.
And hell scud it intae the lot of them.
O/T but after being forced to watch a great week long flag fest of Britishness over VE day 70 (I’m not against commemoration but one day is after all one day)and given that we now have five year fixed parliaments does this mean that every election wil be followed by a week long Festival of Britain?
@ Effijy 11.13am Oh ah, ah kin see in the horizon Scottish Grand Committee ( withoot the chair choob) discussing the BBCs Political Bias. Get your bags packed N ready Prof John Robertson its a all expences payed trip tae Londinioum (cause the BBC urnae taking me tae Court anytime soon,whereby I would have payed your expences.
To go a bit O/T
Thinking about the FFA/federalist questions and it occurs to me that what Cameron will try to do is to damage the SNP by giving us the tory version of FFA. I keep hearing this mantra that Scotland should be in charge of raising its own tax and having to provide from that tax take. This would in effect mean that the Scottish government would have considerably less money that we currently get through the Barnett formula.
What this leaves out of the picture are all the Scottish revenues that are deviously hidden by westminster.
The oil revenues from licencing and taxation which are hidden in the Ex Regio scam.
The whisky revenues that are all declared in London as that is where almost all the industry’s headquarters are.
All the Crown Estates revenues which are only counted as a UK revenue.
All the Scottish food an drink exports which are shipped through English ports and are counted as UK exports.
All of the corporation tax from companies operating in Scotland but headquartered in England which includes all the supermarkets and many of the financail services companies.
I would like to hear more about this from the SNP. Whenever FFA is mentioned we should be making it clear that FFA MUST include all of the above and not just income tax take.
If we only get the income tax take we WILL be in financial difficulties. Only TOTAL control of ALL revenues generated in Scotland (including the 6000sq miles of North Sea Brown a co have ‘stolen’) will allow Scotland to flourish.
Anything less than this will spell financial disaster.
@Katie says: 10 May, 2015 at 11:22 am:
“It appears some people south of the border really hate us and some trully vile comments there. Although the guy who said, ‘ Scotland is subsidised by England but I want us to stay in the union’ Not sure I understand the logic!”
That, Katie, could be because there is no logic and the person dribbling at the mouth is even more brainwashed that the Unionist Scots.
I’m an old man and I’ve been a political animal since around 1946 as a schoolboy. I have also always been a history buff and had realise way back then that we Scots had been getting brainwashed since ever we were born. Back then the Scottish Cringe was endemic.
Anyhow during WWII when English kids were being moved away from the south my mother got inside information that D-day was very very close and she and I moved down to Hants as she figured we might never see Dad again and I went to school in the local English town.
I quickly learned that Scots were treated more like the enemy than the allies. I was picked upon by much older kids. I’ve always hated bullies and being a thrawn wee bugger I didn’t think twice about fighting back. Instead of the gang of bullies being punished I was regularly caned by the Head Master as a troublemaker.
I never ever held that against the English as a nation for there are nasty people in all countries. It did though teach me a lesson that these kids were brainwashed in their beliefs about the Scots. I still think that way but also know the Scots have been brain washed quite a bit too.
The only way to reverse the propaganda is to prove the ideas it fosters to be wrong. To do that we Scots must not only search out the truth but then nip every numptie that comes out with the illogical crap in the bud but do so by not only stating the truth but proving it too.
The natural reaction to these numpties is to apply a swift virtual punch to their bracket but that’s not the way to correct their mind-set. Knowledge and logic are.
Can I ask some of my fellow wingers to lay off the Green Party blaming them for standing a candidate in the seat that Mundell won, it’s almost sounding the same as the Labour mantra that it was the SNP that brought down the Labour Government in 1979.
As someone earlier pointed out, Labour’s votes decreased and the Tory vote increased but so did the SNP’s.
aldo_macb says:
9 May, 2015 at 3:42 pm
“Pollsters also probably got turnout wrong. Looks to me like the Labour support stayed at home in England.”
There is no evidence of that. Look at the three right-hand columns in the link below and you will see that Labour, in spite of being trounced here in Scotland, actually increased it’s vote share across the YooKay.
It is very difficult, perhaps impossible to work out what actually happened in England. Rev Stu has suggested that the collapsing LD vote went to the Tories rather than Labour, where is the evidence for that?
I would suggest, though I can’t prove it, that the non-politically savvy labour and LD voters from 2010 jumped ship to UKIP, who they regard as rebels in spite of their bat-shit mental right-wing views. While the savvy Tory voter knows that UKIP exist to split the English Labour vote.
The Labour vote may have increased, meanwhile, by a large number of disaffected LD’s going for “anyone except the Tories/UKIP”.
The only lesson I can see from this is, picking up extra votes in your safe seats is an irrelevance if you can’t pick up votes in the marginal.
It is telling that while UKIP voters and the press are wailing about UKIP getting one seat from almost 4 million votes, the party itself seems quite happy with the results. Is the Tory govt a case of job done?
link to bbc.co.uk
ps
Can anyone tell me why the 20 minute delay on page refreshes, for me, has suddenly become 40 minutes?
I’m not blaming anybody just pointing out the obvious. It’s all water under the bridge now and can’t be helped but their participation in an election wher they don’t expect to win a seat was completely pointless. One of their candidates agreed with me, it was about raising their profile for next year when they can win seats.
I’m a Green Party supporter who campaigned with the SNP, and I know I’m not the only one.
Like the SNP the GP is run by its members, and there was no way the tree-hugging tendency were going to forgo the opportunity to do some banner waving.
But… the advantage is that next year we will be able to appeal to “small c” conservatives and libdems as there will be no seen complicity with the Nats.
In this constituency (Angus) a different campaign will be necessary than those in the cities. We will be positioning our tanks on the right not the left.
Paula, everybody likes the bicycling, vegetarian, studiously scruffy, Greens but there are will be no celebratory sair heids this weekend in that quarter. They might indeed disapprove of Trident, austerity & welfare squeezes but didn’t vote for the Scotbloc now heading south to do something about it, they voted against them.
I don’t know what the figures are for Mundell’s dukeries, my own street was evacuated therraboots during the war, they were all back in Glesga iwithin a fortnight to take their chances with the bombs. I was familiar with the name Thornhill before I even started the school, earywigin on my elders, and it wasn’t lifted with fond regard I may say.
Is it the case that we might have managed to topple Mundell? the Green vote might even have given him a bigger majority? 🙂
Patrick Harvey tells the media that he didn’t get on with Alex Salmond but prefers Nicola Sturgeon, strange way of supporting her and her campaign, I think Salmond maybe had his number anyhow!
@Derekm
Thanks for noticing my post which was written in the wee small hours. I don’t think I expressed my feelings well…I was and am gobsmacked that RT was reporting that the SNP was involved in these austerity riots. Having watched many of the videos I did not see ANY evidence of SNP supporters being involved and I was trying in my sleep deprived state to convey how Scots are now fair game for even RT!
My failure to say as much makes me very embarrassed! I just wanted to give a heads up that, that’s what was being suggested…next time I’ll try to not be so “evasive” about my meaning…sometimes I’m a little bit “shy” of posting as there are so many very clever and politically savvy posters that my thoughts are not relevant…and I don’t mean that in a bad way 😉
Well done Scotland. I had every faith we could do this…so proud of our wee country.
Fred – my point is that many of us did support and campaign for the SNP, the green party members decided constituency by constituency whether they wanted to stand a candidate.
In my case I did not renew my party membership and therefore did not vote on the issue – a stand of principle. Some I know abstained.
For some in the Green Party there is a pie-in-the-sky mentality – there is no evidence that with no Green candidate they would have turned out to vote Green. For example the previous leader was Robin Harper and he was against independence – bloody idiot in my opinion.
My remark about the Greens was not meant to offend and if anybody has taken offence I’m sorry. It was result of the fact that I felt the Greens were really stupid to contest seats at this election as I feel their interests were much better served by a lot of SNP gains rather than a lot of Green losses – and their interests will be better served by the different voting systems at the Scottish and local Government elections.
As it was the almost unbelievable result on Thursday was not really affected by Green votes but on the expected much tighter contest it could have had quite a damaging effect.
As it is I wish we had a wide based independence movement happily containing members of various other groups and this was the basis on which the National Party of Scotland and in 1934 the Scottish National Party set out.
The last Green in the last paragraph should of course be SNP – silly me.
No-one in the pro-indy movement should be falling-out with anyone else over this or that result. We had exactly the same dilemma in the SSP.
We followed the same process as the Greens insofar as individual branches voted on whether or not to put up a candidate. However, it had been agreed at SSP conference last year that we would have four of our top people contesting seats where the result was ‘a foregone conclusion’.
And how many ‘foregone conclusions’ turned out to be accurate? This is the sort of thing that does cause friction, but it needn’t cause division. Some of us who voted against standing a candidate in Ayrshire, for example, declined to help comrades who campaigned in Paisley, but we still put in shifts at stalls etc, as usual.
Thankfully, the SSP didn’t end up in the situation the Greens are now in, with people sniping at them over results which no-one predicted. Sometimes, you just can’t win. Bottom-line is that we’ve got nothing to complain about – this time next year, fingers-crossed, SSP and the Green Party will reap the rewards for having supported the Yes movement, and secure some representation in Holyrood.
tactile-vision at 2.01
You are probably right. As at the English local election last year the UKIP vote directed disaffected Tory voters away from Labour and prevented huge Labour gains
Dave McEwan Hill claims, “The Scottish Parliament can legitimately call a referendum and no permission from the UK government is required in international law which is determined by the UN Charter.”
No, the Scotland Act 1998 did not give the Scottish Parliament the right call a referendum. The Edinburgh Agreement between the Coalition government and the SNP included a Section 30 order which temporarily devolved to Holyrood the power to hold a referendum.
Alex Salmond said, “An agreement with Westminster was necessary to put the referendum beyond legal challenge.” Secession without legitimacy would be just like Ian Smith’s illegal declaration of white Rhodesia’s independence.
Another referendum would require the UK Parliament to agree to a transfer of powers to call the vote under section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998.
Any so-called indicative referendum would have no standing; it would not be a referendum at all. It would be no more than an opinion poll, and we know how accurate they can be.
So a referendum is necessary for ‘legitimacy’. As Nicola Sturgeon said on 29 January 2014, “I don’t believe a majority of seats at any election gives us a mandate for independence.”
2 million people voted for the unity of the British working class in September; just 1.6 million voted for splitting our country.
Just 1.4 million voted SNP in May. The British people voted overwhelmingly for Unionist parties.
The UN Charter does not allow secession. As Rosalyn
Higgins, a former President of the International Court of Justice, stated, “Contrary to popular belief, international law does not permit selfdetermination,
by way of national secession, to national minorities.”
Will Podmore at 3.32
A law is only binding of all parties agree.
The Scotland Act you refer to was agreed by the UK and a compliant Scottish Labour and Tory Party
Are you suggesting that in front of the whole world the UK Government would obstruct a democratically achieved demand for a Scottish Referendum?
Don’t be silly.
We do not have to ask anybody else’s opinion about how we wish to be governed – unless you imagine democracy has been concelled.
Dave McEwan Hill claims, “A law is only binding if all parties agree.” No, the law is binding on all parties until it is changed.
If the SNP chose to hold a referendum without the agreement of the government, it would not be binding, it would have no legal force.
You over and again write ‘we’. The ‘we you invoke is a national minority in a democratic country.
We the British people overwhelmingly voted for Unionist parties. Even in Scotland, the SNP did not win the support of more than 50% of the voters, and won the support of only 35% of the electorate.
If the SNP tried to launch a referendum without consent, people would not turn out to vote in sufficient numbers.
The election did not cancel democracy; it expressed democracy. We, you and I, may not like the result, but Union is what people voted for, capitalism is what people voted for, wars, exploitation, privatisation they voted for …
Precisely. The Scottish Parliament fully entitled to withdraw its consent.
And the unionists achieved 32% of the electorate. What is your point?
Is you point that any vote in a Parliament or an election stands forever? Why are we still not members of the Holy Roman Empire?
No Government can bind the decisions of its successor.
Away with you.
Dave writes that the Scottish Parliament could withdraw its consent to the Union, presumably. But this would have no legal effect. It would be just as illegitimate an act as Ian Smith’s UDI.
The point about the electorate’s votes is that the SNP did not win a majority of the electorate, either in the referendum or in the general election. Even if they had, they did not win a majority of the electorate of the country of which we are all part.
The Holy Roman Empire, besides being neither Holy nor Roman nor an Empire, was not a democracy.
Britain is a democracy, and in a democracy, the majority decides, not any minority, however much they want to.
Will Podmore
Actually independence supporting parties won a slight electoral majority at the recent General Election.
My country is Scotland
The majority in Scotland decides democratically how Scotland is governed. That is all. Check the United Nations Charter.
Are you suggesting the UK Government will replicate in Scotland the USSR invasion of Hungary or something?
Nice to be chatting to a democrat
As I said – away with you.
Dave, you keep saying check the UN Charter – alright, quote me where it says there is a right to secession from a democracy.
Article 1 (2) of the Charter stresses the right of nations to self-determination. But you would have to prove both that Scotland was a nation and that Britain isn’t, to make this article sustain your case.
Article 2 (4) of the Charter stresses the need to defend the territorial integrity of every state. Secession would breach this principle of international law.
As Rosalyn Higgins, a former President of the International Court of Justice, stated, “Contrary to popular belief, international law does not permit selfdetermination, by way of national secession, to national minorities.”
There is no right to secede.
Our country is Britain, as the majority reaffirmed in September.
I’m away now for the weekend to attend the UCU Congress in Glasgow. Have a good Bank Holiday weekend!
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