The one great pillar of the argument against Scottish independence – greater than not being allowed into the EU, greater than being forced to barter with beads and potatoes because we wouldn’t have a currency, greater than losing Doctor Who or having the Chinese take their pandas back – is the economy.
Scotland is far too wee and too poor to be independent, they say – while indignantly denying that they’re saying it – because we only survive now thanks to a vast bailout every year from the rest of the UK, by which they in fact mean England. (Because it’s sure as heck not coming from Wales or Northern Ireland, which by any measure you care to choose are far poorer than Scotland.)
The name and size of this bailout vary wildly. Sometimes it’s a “deficit”, sometimes it’s a “black hole”, sometimes it’s a “fiscal transfer”, and it can be £8bn, £9bn, £10bn, £15bn, £28bn, £32bn or any other figure up to a hundred and eleventy thousand million bajillion squillion depending on who you’re talking to.
(The last one’s probably either David Coburn or Jackie Baillie.)
And while there are a dozen separate and compelling reasons why that argument is complete rubbish, none of them have any traction with diehard Unionists determined to believe that one of the richest and most blessed nations on Earth couldn’t possibly manage its own affairs like, say, Latvia or Ireland or Kuwait or Slovakia can.
But it turns out there IS a – surprisingly simple – way to get Unionists to categorically deny that England subsidises Scotland. You just have to ask them.
The votes for “God Save The Queen” being driven by Tories, English-born residents and supporters of a particular football club probably won’t come as the biggest shock in the world to anyone.
(Alert viewers will of course have noticed that due to MI5 INTERFERENCE in the poll, there were actually two votes for Hoots Mon, which have been suspiciously rounded down to one. We are conducting an investigation, by which we mean brutal purge.)
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson managed to make a bit of a balloon of herself earlier this month when she contrived to get THREE fairly key facts wrong in a single tweet about a poll on a second independence referendum.
(We’re not sure who the guy in the picture with her is. Probably a colleague.)
We suspected the reason she’d so badly misunderstood the data was that there were two options for “have another indyref in the next two years” and only one for “don’t have another indyref”, so when we were putting our latest poll together we thought we’d try to make it easier for her by having an equal number on both sides.
There’s a nice piece in today’s Scottish Sun about one of the findings of our newest Panelbase poll, on who was Scotland’s all-time best First Minister.
We thought you’d want a more detailed look at the data behind it.
There were no surprises in our latest Panelbase poll with regard to the independence question, at least not in terms of the headline figures – in line with a flurry of recent polls they came out at Yes 46% No 54%, with 2016’s Brexit vote seemingly having caused almost equal numbers of people to change sides since 2014.
But as readers will know, we usually like to probe a little bit deeper into the thoughts of our respondents than other media do, so we asked a few more questions on the subject. And the results of that were just plain weird.
When we commissioned our latest opinion poll from Panelbase, we were aware that there’d been a lot of polls recently about independence and Brexit/the EU and even Westminster voting intentions, but surprisingly few on the next thing that Scots will actually go to polling stations for – the council elections in May.
That’s odd because it’s a pretty significant vote, and could lead to some fairly seismic changes in how the country is governed. Despite losing the popular vote for the first time in 2012, Labour are still the dominant force in Scotland’s town/city halls, running almost twice as many of the country’s 32 local authorities (either in sole control or in coalition/minority administrations) as the SNP – 16 to nine.
Depending on the outcome in May, the Nats could either secure a grip on all levels of Scottish elected politics for the first time ever, or a Tory alliance with Labour as junior partners could keep most councils Unionist – something which could have all sorts of wider ramifications beyond local services. (That’s an article for another day.)
The ultra-hardcore Unionist community – or the Yoons, as they’re better known – are in a pretty much permanent state of wild and terrified rage, but it’s been turned up to 11 for most of this year. Constantly proclaiming that the people of Scotland don’t want independence, for some reason they’re absolutely petrified of putting that to the test.
Rev. Stuart Campbell on Only An Excuse: “I’ve actually watched the last eight minutes back now, and in fairness to the ref he deals with the bookings…” May 22, 08:39
Bilbo on Only An Excuse: “I see that Swinney has dropped the role of Woman’s health minister: https://archive.ph/qc5CF The usual hypocritical carpings from the other…” May 22, 07:47
M.E. on Only An Excuse: “This is just the unlockable m-m-m-m-multiball mode!” May 22, 07:46
Potace on Only An Excuse: “The authorities got the result that they wanted. It would have been a “crisis in Scottish football” otherwise” May 22, 07:42
Skip_NC on Only An Excuse: “Does anyone who is not confused believe the SFA’s warblings since the weekend? Seriously, they don’t come close to reality.…” May 22, 02:06
Skip_NC on Only An Excuse: “It should not take thirty seconds to issue and record a caution in professional football. As you go further down…” May 22, 01:52
Rev. Stuart Campbell on Only An Excuse: “I’m going to need all of that in English.” May 22, 00:56
Confused on Only An Excuse: “the authorities have made their statement, there is nothing in it. The ref decides, he doesn’t need to blow his…” May 21, 22:39
Tinto Chiel on Off-topic: “@sarah: thanks for that. It’s back to brassicas then……” May 21, 22:31
Andy Wiltshire on Only An Excuse: “I had no idea there were that many people in MI6.” May 21, 22:12
Bill Scullion on Only An Excuse: “The SFA simply don’t want to take a chance that Hearts come back to them with the same arguments as…” May 21, 21:54
Southernbystander on The Land Of No Laws: “Geri, I daresay this is part of the wider conversation above and I did not read all of it. I…” May 21, 21:14
sarah on Off-topic: “That’s a good idea about the hens, Dan – several neighbours have them. Yes, we have corrugated iron sheets to…” May 21, 21:13
Northcode on The Queer Parliament: ““…the ‘trans’ sadism and madness needs to be removed before independence, Alf…” Not so, that’s retrospective determinism — treating the…” May 21, 21:09
Dan on Off-topic: “I reckon snails could easily travel a hunner yards back to a succulent cabbage leaf. Best to get some chickens…” May 21, 20:46
Geri on The Queer Parliament: “Dan, LOL! Lorncal “Personally, I have no faith in the UN. It is filled to the gunnels with former colonized…” May 21, 20:44
Alf Baird on The Queer Parliament: ““Scotland’s malady is tribalism” The colonizer will always manipulate and ‘exploit tribal rivalries’ (Fanon), we know this from postcolonial theory.…” May 21, 20:42
Scot Finlayson on Only An Excuse: “4 bookings after 90 mins, refs ,generally, put on 30 seconds per booking, so another 2 minutes should have been…” May 21, 20:27
Hatey McHateface on The Queer Parliament: “Surely a blinkered attitude if you stand to make a killing by betting on how long he will last as…” May 21, 20:27
George Ferguson on Only An Excuse: “Well that was the 5 days up and there we have it, nothing to see here move on. The reputational…” May 21, 20:19
sarah on Off-topic: “If your wee ones want to see more than one large snail, I recommend leaving one or more kale [or…” May 21, 20:18
Hatey McHateface on The Queer Parliament: “Arse over tit, Bilbo. The policies over the past 4+ years were sane and rational. It’s the buying of diesel…” May 21, 20:17
Geri on The Queer Parliament: “Another one that doesn’t understand “Scroll on. Piss off” Leave her alone eh? Yer one post today had to be…” May 21, 20:16
Lorncal on The Queer Parliament: “Stuart: that was not my point. It will only come back to reality when the pressures start to show the…” May 21, 20:14
Hatey McHateface on The Queer Parliament: “Hey Alf. Did you know that Northy posts in praise of you as well? He also writes that the only…” May 21, 20:10
Paul Eden on Only An Excuse: “Outrageous, not fair, biased. Who knew?” May 21, 20:09
Bilbo on The Queer Parliament: “O/T. I see that the UK is lifting sanctions and buying oil produced by R via India. They do this…” May 21, 19:56
GM on The Queer Parliament: “It’s a toss up between her and Ivan McKee who is the best minister amongst them. I see Somerville still…” May 21, 19:56
Calum on Only An Excuse: “What’s even more depressing is, I have a couple of mates who are most def not Celtic fans who have…” May 21, 19:53
Bilbo on The Queer Parliament: “I have no interest in English politics but it’s obvious Burnham is only seen a popular candidate to become PM…” May 21, 19:50