Disclaimer first: as we always say in situations like this, BOOKMAKERS’ ODDS ARE NOT PREDICTIONS. They’re based in significant part on the level of wagers placed, which means that you could affect the odds simply by making a large bet, which of course wouldn’t actually change the likelihood of a particular candidate winning.
So with that proviso, we present the following information purely for interest.
…which we felt it important to preserve for posterity lest anything happen to it. We’d charitably blame it all on the Telegraph, who made it, were it not for the fact that the Scottish Conservatives have posted it on their own Facebook page.
This is how today’s BBC News summed up (fairly accurately) the two main themes of last night’s Question Time special with Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn:
May managed to largely get away with her party’s abysmal track record of brutal cuts and austerity, while Corbyn was made very uncomfortable by a howling mob of angry, terrifyingly bloodthirsty old white men over Labour’s policy on Trident.
And while Corbyn’s position on the nuclear deterrent is idiotic and makes him an easy target for opponents, the main reason for the differing outcomes is language.
We’re being told that this Tory leaflet, where Stephanie Smith is described as “Ruth Davidson’s candidate” for Edinburgh South, is standard across the whole country.
…that will satisfy the Unionist parties. Last night Ruth Davidson told STV viewers that even getting more than 50% of the vote in a general election wouldn’t give the SNP a mandate to pursue their manifesto policies.
She was echoing the words of Kezia Dugdale just over a year ago:
So that’s clear. Davidson has reversed her previous view. There is now no peaceful democratic avenue by which the people of Scotland could express the wish for a second referendum which the two main Unionist parties would accept. They have EXPLICITLY said, in full public view, that they would reject any democratic mandate.
She’d insisted explicitly several times that a Jeremy Corbyn administration WOULD block a new indyref, even after being shown a video clip of Corbyn from earlier in the day saying he wouldn’t, and she repeatedly urged readers not to listen to the party’s leader and to instead go and look at the Labour manifesto.
Today’s Daily Record has a swipe at Jeremy Corbyn for, well, let’s call them “mixed messages” over a second independence referendum. It suggests his Scottish branch manager Kezia Dugdale would have “her head in her hands” over his latest comments, which is a bit rich considering Dugdale’s own history on the subject.
And since her headline boast when she took over as leader of the North British office was that people would know exactly what Labour stood for (and indeed she spent all of the weekend’s keynote Sunday Politics interview listing all the things she’d been very very clear about), we thought we’d have a recap and see how that was going.
Apologies in advance about this, folks, but it’s driving us mad. We got into a Twitter argument with some Tory balloon last night and this morning, and to cut a long story short it got us looking at the 1951 UK general election result.
History records it as a Tory majority, securing just over half of the Parliamentary seats (321 of 625) and forming the government under Winston Churchill despite narrowly losing the popular vote to Labour (48% to 48.8%).
But if you examine the result in the House Of Commons Library the numbers don’t add up, and we can’t figure out why.
100%Yes on The Broken Rainbow: “John Swinney will now sell Scotland for federalism make no mistake this is what’s going to happen. The SNP leadership…” May 13, 22:01
Geri on The Hills Of Far Away: “AI Dan “fluff”? Yer sounding more & more like Franchise Fanny by the day. You just can’t help yersel. As…” May 13, 21:45
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: “Havers, Northy, you’re confusing meaning with interpretation. The Egyptians, demonstrably the finest stone workers who have ever graced this planet…” May 13, 20:47
100%Yes on The Broken Rainbow: “Has anyone watch the mid week Scottish Prism, take a look. Already JS has backed track on what he said…” May 13, 19:47
Northcode on The Hills Of Far Away: “Rhetoric shapes meaning; a lie hollows it out. A lie is the crack in the stone not a carving… as…” May 13, 19:44
Hatey McHateface on The Broken Rainbow: “Good Lord, Northy! So even the Picts are now using the lying language of the coloniser – English.” May 13, 19:30
100%Yes on The Broken Rainbow: “This policy of kicking Indy into the long grass is now showing in the opinion polls for the SNP. There…” May 13, 19:29
Northcode on The Hills Of Far Away: ““… insults aren’t meant to arguments…” To be or not to be, but where is the ‘be’… I forgot to…” May 13, 19:28
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: “You omitted to say where bare-faced lying fits in, Northy.” May 13, 19:27
Northcode on The Broken Rainbow: “Colonialists in this place very often mistake disruption for cleverness and noise for wit, but “the stone knows the difference”,…” May 13, 19:18
Northcode on The Hills Of Far Away: ““Calling people “thick cants” isn’t an argument either.” Correct, but then again insults aren’t meant to arguments… not directly, anyway.…” May 13, 19:08
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: “Well, well. So the Falklands now has an outfit backed by a state with the determination, skill, technology and balls…” May 13, 18:48
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: “@Aidan There’s a war crimes tribunal in permanent session atween Geri’s lugs. In the interests of efficiency, she volunteered to…” May 13, 18:40
Hatey McHateface on The Broken Rainbow: “Lucky for Scotland that the boys petitioning the UN make all of this democratic voting malarkey a pointless sideshow. Beats…” May 13, 18:35
duncanio on The Broken Rainbow: “I didn’t say it was an alternative. I said it was imperfect but less imperfect than FPTP. Otherwise you would…” May 13, 18:31
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: ““Do you think have a special, unique entitlement to type insults” Does not compute. Re-type and re-submit.” May 13, 18:25
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: ““Calling something “horseshit” isn’t an argument” Hark at Northy! Only yesterday he was calling people “thick cants”. Ken fit sane,…” May 13, 18:19
Jay on The Hills Of Far Away: “Commander-in-Chief Caveman, I’ve no idea whether you will read this.. What is pretentious in my comment? I do not pretend,…” May 13, 18:17
Captain Caveman on The Hills Of Far Away: “@Aidan “Of course people living in a rich and prosperous country cosplaying as victims is one thing you missed from…” May 13, 17:38
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Broken Rainbow: “Ever since 2016, the SNP’s policy has basically been to kick it down the road for two years at a…” May 13, 17:33
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Broken Rainbow: “It made zero difference to the point anyway. But gah, too many numbers flying around at once.” May 13, 17:32
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Broken Rainbow: “But that’s not the alternative. The alternative is a proportional system that actually works.” May 13, 17:32
Aidan on The Hills Of Far Away: “Of course people living in a rich and prosperous country cosplaying as victims is one thing you missed from your…” May 13, 17:29
Aidan on The Hills Of Far Away: “Had Blair been tried and found guilty of being a war criminal, or even indicted?” May 13, 17:14
Captain Caveman on The Hills Of Far Away: “Regardless of the whys and wherefores, Jay, one thing is certain: you’re a pretentious, obnoxious, insufferable wanker. 🙂 Yup. Deffo…” May 13, 17:10
Aidan on The Broken Rainbow: “Then when the planned showdown in the 2029 General Election goes nowhere, there will always be the 2031 Holyrood election…” May 13, 17:03
Jay on The Hills Of Far Away: “To S. MacKay: firstly you need to learn how to express yourself, even at the level of punctuation. Secondly, constructing…” May 13, 16:49
Northcode on The Hills Of Far Away: “Calling something “horseshit” isn’t an argument. It’s a way of avoiding one. Exposing the mechanics of abusive power is not…” May 13, 16:13
100%Yes on The Broken Rainbow: “Watch yourself Kelly’s Eye will be crowing from the rooftops about the mistake, but he won’t admit he conned everyone…” May 13, 16:03
Lorncal on The Hills Of Far Away: “That should read: now concentrate…” May 13, 15:51
