Narrow windows
Supporters of the opposition’s plan to block a no-deal Brexit have been proclaiming vindication this weekend over a couple of polls which show significantly lower support for the Tories, and a lead for Labour, in the event that a general election is called after 31 October with Brexit not having happened.
In that scenario, Tory voters tell pollsters that they’re more likely to defect to the Brexit Party, and the resulting split in the Brexit vote appears to point towards a Labour-led government if you plug the figures into a site like Electoral Calculus.
The reality is much more complicated than that. But what we’re specifically interested in is how it would affect the chances of securing a second indyref, so let’s take a look.
Firstly, the bare numbers on those figures:
At first glance it looks promising. Labour and SNP votes would add up to a 337 – a clear majority. However, the SNP wouldn’t be Labour’s only option. A deal with the Lib Dems would be slightly better for them, producing a 341-seat coalition.
It seems overwhelmingly likely that Labour would choose to work with the Lib Dems rather than concede a second independence referendum, particularly given that John McDonnell as recently as this morning expressly rejected the latter idea.
(We fully expect Labour’s position on this to flip at least three times before tomorrow, but throw the Lib Dems into the mix and it’s a pretty safe bet that it’s not happening.)
OUTCOME: NO INDYREF.
But the Electoral Calculus figures are oversimplified. They take no account of tactical voting, which would be likely to be a HUGE factor in any general election this year, before or after 31 October. Luckily, the site allows users to add a “Tactical Fraction” (TF), imagining the percentage of a party’s voters who might switch tactically to another if their preferred party was unlikely to win in their own seat.
So let’s try that with a uniform TF of 25% for every party:
Now Labour need both the Lib Dems AND the SNP to get to a majority, and if the prospects of Labour agreeing to another indyref were slim, the chances of the Lib Dems also going along with it can fairly confidently be said to be nil.
OUTCOME: NO INDYREF.
So what if we crank the Tactical Fraction up to 50% across the board? There is, after all, much open talk of electoral pacts on both sides, which would increase the tactical-voting effect hugely. And if one side agreed a pact it would make it far more likely that the other side would too, in the classic arms race.
With a TF of 50% we get this:
Now even a three-party Remain coalition struggles to get to a majority.
OUTCOME: NO INDYREF.
It’s actually a lot more plausible, however, that the TF will NOT be uniform. For a Brexit voter, it’s really easy to switch between the Tories and the Brexit Party according to your local circumstances, because both will be unmistakeably in practice standing for the same thing – a no-deal Brexit.
The situation is much less clear for the Remain parties – assuming, indeed, that we can even class Labour as a Remain party. Large swathes of their voters will be extremely reluctant to vote either Lib Dem or SNP, particularly in seats in the north of England which voted overwhelmingly Leave and which will be heavily targeted by the Brexit Party because the Tories have next to zero presence there.
So what if we make the TF 50% for Leave parties and 25% for Remain?
A completely hung Parliament. Right back to where we are now.
OUTCOME: NO INDYREF.
But for fairness, let’s imagine it skews the other way, and the Remain parties somehow cobble together a viable alliance. So we’ll swap those numbers around – a TF of 50 for Remain parties and 25 for Leave.
Again, all three Remain parties are needed. To fully understand how implausible a second indyref is in this scenario, imagine that Labour and the Lib Dems somehow agreed to one, and Scotland voted Yes.
(Which is probably quite unlikely in itself in those circumstances – with Brexit averted, who’d volunteer to plunge back into several more years of uncertainty?)
The remnant UK would now be in a situation where it had only been kept in the EU by the votes of MPs who were no longer part of the UK. It’s all but inconceivable that this plainly unsustainable scenario wouldn’t result in another election and/or another EU referendum which would return a clear rUK Leave vote. And jings, you think we’ve got constitutional chaos NOW?
OUTCOME: NO INDYREF.
So let’s have one last attempt at stacking the odds. Let’s assume Labour voters remain utterly resolute and refuse to vote tactically, but let’s say that every single Lib Dem or Green is willing to vote tactically for Labour. And let’s also imagine that the Brexit Party and Tories are SO at loggerheads that none of them will switch either.
Even in this wildly, comically unfeasible fantasy of a future, the SNP can’t quite carry Labour to a majority alone.
OUTCOME: NO INDYREF.
Remember, these calculations are based on the opposition’s attempts to block a pre-November election succeeding. That isn’t in itself guaranteed by any means. They represent a best-case scenario for both Remainers and Yessers.
And while Electoral Calculus projections are by no means a source of hard empirical stats, the underlying fact they illustrate is that the main beneficiaries of any Remain alliance will unquestionably be the Lib Dems. Labour, and in particular Jeremy Corbyn, are simply far too unpopular to deliver a situation where the SNP can effectively hold them to ransom for a second indyref.
The time when that strategy could have worked, if it ever existed, is gone. While we can tantalisingly glimpse the light, there is no window big enough for us to get through.
In so far as it can be said to have a Plan A at all (we’re not sure that just asking nicely over and over again in the hope that Westminster suddenly develops a conscience and gives us another indyref out of the kindness of its heart really counts as a “plan”), the SNP, and the Yes movement, definitely and urgently need a Plan B.
Yes, Plan B is required.
And, I was very apprehensive about splitting the vote up here but I have come around to the simple logic of it. It must be coordinated and the SNP need to get off their high horse and go along with it to. This is not a question of disloyalty to the SNP but is Loyalty to the cause of Independence. I will shout for this from now on and directly to the SNP.
Right behind you Rev!
This is the current gold standard link to explain both the ongoing WM shambles and the lack of leverage for IndyRef2 within – thanks for the resource Stu, and for the unmistakably stark reality check!
How likely is it that the SNP leadership is not looking seriosly at alternative strategies ? They would have to be among the most inept leaders in history. Another way of qualifying for that group of numpties would be to have worked out alternatives and then blab about them.
Just keep the heid and keep pushing.
Truly demoralizing, aware you didn’t intend it to be that way . God help us all in this maze of unicorns.
Vote SNP 1 WINGS 2 in hollyrood election to be called this year hopefully
Stu.
Why don’t YOU go along to Nicola Sturgeon’s next press conference and ask her all these things that nobody else seems able to ask?
Doorstep her office, ask for an in-depth interview. Demand answers on behalf of the Indy movement.
What is “plan B”?
The SNP did zilch with the 56 MPs (now reduced) so what is going to be different at the next General Election?
While I accept the underlying calculations here I dont recall anyone in the SNP actually saying that this was their plan. I also don’t believe in unicorns so am not naive enough to think that any resulting government that is not dependent on the SNP will grant indyref2.
However a large boost in support for the SNP standing on an independence manifesto might be hard to resist indefinately. And if Boris does squeak through, even without his parcel of rogues, he might just wash his hands with us.
They’ve never had a plan in the first place, except for maybe accepting devo max. I don’t believe that Sturgeon is truly independence minded and in fact, I believe she is central to what I see as a deliberate sabotage from within regarding Scottish independence.
The problem is that independence supporters seem blinded to the fact that there is no alternative independence party in Scotland and Sturgeon and the SNP use this to their own advantage. That’s why currently, I support the Wings initiative.
Scotland desperately needs an alternative independence party and Wings is the only one that’s thrown their hat into the ring so far and made proposals at least.
There can only be one plan B – and that’s a) for the SP to (somehow) dissolve the TOU and then b) hold a confirmatory referendum to endorse, or indeed, reject, its dissolution and a return to pre-1707 self-government. Assuming we’re out of the EU, we should be able to rely on their support at least
1 SNP, 2 Wings
Makes so much sense
Perhaps ‘OUTCOME: NO INDYREF’ is the plan. Mad to advertise your tactics to the opposition in advance. I believe this is exactly the scenario the SNP have been looking for – the next steps they take will be the ones they can state they have been FORCED to adopt. Faolie isn’t far off the mark. I would also point out that Scotland will not be the only issue facing Westminster, there will be N Ireland and of course the EU to deal with.
As I said last night, I think Corbyn would be unwise to assume a split to the Brexit Party if the 31st is missed. Voters aren’t entirely thick. If the opposition so the hands of Boris so he can’t leave on the 31st the chances are Labour will take some of that blame. It may be that some of their vote goes to Farage.
Boris would suffer if he was deemed to have deliberately missed the 31st. He is patently determined on No Deal.
If it is as seems likely another hung parliament with no Tories in Scotland our best chance is that Boris offers a referendum in the hope of losing 59 opposition MPs and getting shot of us.
Failing that mandates are pointless whether now or in 2021 if they are to be ignored. A plan B is therefore necessary and enacted asap.
In other words the slim window of opportunity for a second indref vote is…well, slim to non existent under the current Brexit thingmyjig.
I hope the ‘Idea’ of a Wings party has morphed into something more substantial now because I see no way forward without another party nipping at the heels of the SNP
Nicol Sturgeon says that, if there is a clear majority of Scottish voters in favour of independence then the Labour Party would bend to the democratic will and agree a referendum. She says any other stance would be “unsustainable”. She doesn’t say how she might test that unsustainability.
See interview in Republica:
link to repubblica.it
Why do you think that Nicola and the SNP don’t have a plan B?
It’s been obvious for years that none of the Unionist parties will grant a Section 30 order.
Do the think the SNP leadership is unaware of this?
We just have to let Brexit run its course – the UK will never recover and it will lead to the breakup of the UK.
It going to happen and it’s going to happen very quickly.
No WM government is going to give a S30 when they know it will lead to Indy. End of, as far as I am concerned.
They have so much form. The 40% rule in 1979 to prevent devolution. Thatcher never delivering the ‘better devolution package’ they promised pre 79. There was no way DevoMax/FFA was going to be allowed on any referendum paper, because it would win. Cameron only accepted the Edinburgh agreement because he was sure he would win. (He also did EURef on the basis of expecting to win). The made false promises to win IndyRef1, and never delivered.
WM begrudges giving anything to Scotland. An S30? No chance.
I don’t know what the SNP plan involves but clearly they are trying hard to be perceived reasonable and wiling to compromise. And they want this to be seen as a contrast to BritNats being intransigent and unreasonable. This is probably to persuade No-Remains to switch to Yes.
Are they seriously expecting an S30? I don’t think so.
It would indeed need us to weaponise a Holyrood List vote. Although if Swinson loses her seat which she might do then the FibDems might be more likely to let us have one without being led by Swinson. Because of course for Swinson to concede one would be likely to result in her losing her seat as it vanishes under Independence.
Turkeys do not vote for Xmas.
Also because of the obvious problem that relying on the SNP in a coalition would indeed mean a loss of govt majority when we leave the UK. So at best we might be allowed to have one in say 4 years time which put it at the mercy of by-elections and defections.
Personally in that scenario I would prefer the SNP to offer only Confidence and Supply and not fully enter into a formal coalition. That way they will be less likely to be contaminated by the Lib/Lab govt actions.
@ galamcennalath – I agree. The remain vote in Scotland was 62% in 2016 and is probably c 70% now. If the SNP are the only remain party in Scotland (Lib Dems not clearly remain if they are toying with a coalition) then there is a chance of picking up a huge swathe of votes.
Nicola Sturgeon obviously thinks that in that scenario opposing Indyref2 will be “unsustainable”.
Why is there any debate at all about an S30 and the Westminster Parties “allowing it” or giving it in exchange for support?!!?
This should never be the SNP position. We are entitled to the S30. We don’t need to beg or do deals. And we shouldn’t. It’s ridiculous. It should not even be debated on here.
It’s falling into the Unionist trap, similar to the ‘cannot use the pound’ type of argument.
Doing a deal with Labour or anyone else would make Scottish politics as facile as Westminsters. Seriously? Support a political party who would deny Scottish democracy, in exchange for one S30. You must be kidding.
Who gives a flying fish if Labour does a deal with Lib Dems, or Tories do a deal; with Farage. It merely accelerates the rise of English Nationalism. And this is the way forward for the whole of the UK.
Why are all you “We are sovereign” guys, not up in arms about the very idea that we can be refused? And if you are, why do we even need to discuss it.
Let’s face it. No one wants to give Scotland a second chance. It came too close last time. And in any case, the polls for Indy will be scaring the crap out of them.
Let any party ‘refuse’ a democratic S30, while at the same time English Nationalism is soaring, and you will see, not only a rise in YES in Scotland, but a great deal of support from many in England.
We are approaching, crunch time, we need to assume that S30 is a given after a GE that returns the expected SNP seats.
My prediction is that it’s going to be a Tory majority, swiftly followed by Brexit. This will give Scotland it’s best ever chance at independence. Let’s keep positive and together and make the case.
Scottish Independence within the context of the Brexit backdrop was always a ‘Three Bodies Problem’.
That has not changed. Not one iota.
Pretty charts though……
Blackford has said time and again that Scotland will not be taken out of the EU against its will. They absolutely must have a plan B. Otherwise he is going to have a plateful of egg on his face in the next few months. And I agree he SNP must have something else going on or they would be completely inept.
We also have the Revs plan B of a Wings Party for the Tory list votes which, if successful, will show Westminster to be totalitarian if they don’t ‘allow’ another Indy ref. Then we go through the UN maybe?
Whatever, we have to stay positive and more importantly, united by our common goal. We are totally screwed down here. You need to keep your eye on the prize and back the SNP to the hilt or like us you will have no Party worth putting a cross by on the ballot paper.
I do not actually believe we do have a plan B. Nicola wanted an election now but apparently met resistance from the Westminster members. So we wait.
Labour are not going to give a referendum. Of that I have no doubt. Scottish Labour feel they are left without hope of future recovery in that scenario. Especially if indy wins which is their biggest nightmare. My cousin is a former Labour MP.
So, no chance of a section 30 from any of the major parties, but possible coalition on their terms,which will be a buy off with trinkets and baubles.
As you have said all along Rev, there should have been measures put in place regarding the legitimacy of a referendum for a sovereign people. Tested in court well before now, and it will be vigorously contested by Westminster.
and as if we are not already stressed enough
link to twitter.com
Joss Mackintosh @2.43pm
I believe the SNP have ruled out any debate towards a potential plan B at their upcoming conference. The thinking behind the move being that it undermines plan A.
I dont think the SNP have any plans and are just making it up as they go. And if i was Mr & Mrs Murrell on £250,000 per annum, I would be happy for the status quo for a few more years until i take early retirement and a UN job somewhere.
I wonder if these polls include the Jewish backlash against labour.
I agree a Wings party is needed now to prepare for the next Scottish parliament election as the SNP need strong opposition at Holyrood, which they dont have just now.
I can’t believe anyone could possibly think the leadership of the SNP weren’t supportive of anything but full independence, it is ridiculous.
I’ve been trying in my own mind to ask why they don’t go now and it’s quite obvious, the residents of Scotland ain’t there yet.
Yes we have all heard from neighbours and friends that they have changed from no to yes but it’s not what opinion polls are telling us.
The SNP will be doing its own private polling, that will tell them when the time is right, my gut feeling is the general public are not there yet. The underlying problem I’m detecting is a hard border between Scotland and England.
I agree with the assessment carried out and not one Westminster scenario will offer us independence and the SNP knows that too.
I’ve been around the trade union and political movement long enough to know that every possible option is discussed, challenged and reviewed.
Conference season is coming soon, it’ll be interesting to see how all party’s line up.
Galamcennalath@2.47pm
Exactly. It is an advantage not having a Sect 30. The Britnats ( and I don’t just mean the ace liar Johnson) can never be trusted. They would never honour a sect 30 if an indyref was YES.
On the Andrew Marr show this morning John Mc Donnell Labour shadow chancellor was trying to make out he was a democrat by saying he stood by his words at the Edinburgh festival. Except this time he said a UK ( not the truth as he said in Edinburgh English) parliament would not stand in the way of a democratic indyref for Scotland. He then reverted back to the normal Britnat lies by saying that “there would have to be a proper mandate in Scotland ” for it.
Of course, Britnat Marr who had just spent a lot of time intensely interrogating him about Brexit doesn’t ask any follow up questions e.g. Define a proper mandate or the Scottish parliament think they have a proper mandate as they have voted for an indyref.
The Britnats will never play fair. They control the airwaves and the press and pump out lies, misrepresentation of facts and basic propaganda every day of the week so why should anyone think they will suddenly turn in to the fictitious decent British gentleman is way beyond me.
One wonders what Boris Johnson et al, would do (declare English independence) if the EU said to him now is not the time and no you can’t leave without our permission.
There would be rioting on the streets of England.
A S30 is preferable for Scotland and England , we do not want a NO DEAL exit from the UK and I am pretty certain that both countries politicians agree with that.
England keep refusing a S30 because the NO vote is always higher than the YES vote it’s as simple as that.
Poll,s recently may be showing the YES vote as a majority but that is not the same as numbers in an election or referendum.
Once the YES vote exceeds the NO vote in numbers consistently Westminster will allow a S30 because they do not want a NO DEAL with Scotland which unlike the rest of the EU is actually attached to England’s land and that makes a huge difference, we both need an amicable separation.
Given that Corbyn has said he wouldn’t block a Scottish referendum, a coalition isn’t necessary. SNP picking up fifty odd seats and Labour in government should be all that’s required.
I would also expect Labour to pick up more votes as campaigning goes on, so I think there’s a very reasonable chance of those two outcomes occurring.
Trying to be objective, seeing it as an alien might, I just don’t see the logical difference between disbelieving Sajid Javid and the PM when they bang on about negotiations being so important that they cannot show their hand, and what some are claiming on Blackford’s behalf.
Essentially, all are saying ‘keep the heid, it’ll be alright’.
So it’s alright for Blackford to demand that we keep the faith without the slightest evidence of a strategy, but when the UK Govt does likewise we can safely dismiss it because we know it’s just Tories up to their usual dodginess?
There’s a lot of wishful thinking going on here.
Petition for international observers at next independence referendum: the map shows Scotland in red shades, mostly [NE letting us down again], so I take it that all Wingers have signed?
No we haven’t because there are only 7000 signatures and there’s 200,000 plus readers of Wings.
And Mark Piggott’s fundraiser on GoFundMe for flags is struggling. He needed £8000 by this weekend and has reached £3750 from 174 donors.
It MIGHT be possible to hold them up for a change in the law granting Holyrood the right to hold an indyfer without a section 30 order. Probably not a usable right immediately, but it would mean that, given the right circumstances, a Scottish parliament could call a referendum off its own bat at some time in the future.
Does anybody in the media EVER ask Labour or whoever is sitting in the ‘you’ll not be getting your indy ref two lolz’, seat, why on earth it is they so desperately want to hang onto Scotland when so much ( I mean it must 100’s of £BILLIONS by now!) of their hard earned cash is propping this desperate, useless, stupid tiny backwater, where ‘Scotland doesn’t matter’?
This was all so predictable on 19th Septemeber 2014. Brexit, dissolve Holyrood, send in a couple of thousand English civil servants, make sure the tanks are at the ready.
‘You’ll have had your tiny wee parliament’, lolz, nothing more than a ‘parish council’!
The UK is the US’s bitch, Scotland is the UK’s ( England’s) bitch. Fabulous.
I think that brings us full circle to the endless S30 requirement arguments.
Call me naive, but I have never believed that another S30 would be entered into since 2014 by any Unionist party (ie all of them) So I have never troubled myself with placing it front and centre of any speculation (tactically or otherwise) it’s been said before, that if Independence can only ever be achieved via an S30, it will never be achieved.
Well, there’s an outside chance in some sort of Doomsday/ Zombie Apocalypse/ Chernobyl quarantine scenario – though I doubt we’d be controlling any marine resources.
Without rehashing arguments, to address the central point ‘how do you hold a referendum – well you hold one. If the argument is that for some ‘reasons’ Councils etc may refuse to participate, then we must ask “what is a referendum”? It is nothing more than a census. There is another mechanism for holding a census – which is called “Holding a census”.
They tend to happen quite frequently and everyone is bound by law to complete it. There’s due to be another one in… Let me see – 2021 (with a trial in October 2019) *Other census are available.
Though some may pore over that and decide that such a Census has to be approved by Westminster and “His Majesty” again (yes, King George) and again and again ad-infinitum.
Is there to be no recourse at any turn? Scotland, you can’t point at it, nor even look at it by any means whatsoever, without it being agreed by the Crown in Parliament. “Let One give one a clue – One never shall”
Can we ask nothing without approval and if there is only one question and one alone, which Scotland is prohibited from asking, then there is a word for that. So now it brings us into the realm (ha) of legitimacies.
A census or referendum is only to find out if your actions will carry the majority of the people. That’s really all elections are – a census, a referendum a poll. Decide to introduce a beard tax? “Outrage” The people backed us to make that decision. “How do you know?” Had a census mate. “I don’t recognise your census!” You don’t recognise yourself in the mirror with that beard mate – you owe us tax by the way.
As for recognition of Independence declarations and their legitimacy; I think there is a fair amount of evidence for people refusing to accept legitimacies of any actions; whether nations, countries, towns, streets and the last person standing. What is the criteria, where is the line drawn?
Scenario: The free countries of the world acccept Scottish Independence, except for England, the USA and China and a vice-versa scenario. So how legitimate is Independence then? Ok a reductio ad absurdum argument, but you get the point.
Fight a GE on it, fight Scottish Elections on it, take a poll of any flavour you like, weigh yourself, weigh the people, pass your Independence bill. It might even stick.
So, there you go, that’s my starter for ten. Next.
Well RT managed to get a camera to Perth on Saturday
link to twitter.com
Does anybody in the media EVER ask Labour or whoever is sitting in the ‘you’ll not be getting your indy ref two lolz’, seat, why on earth it is they so desperately want to hang onto Scotland when so much ( I mean it must 100’s of £BILLIONS by now!) of their hard earned cash is propping this desperate, useless, stupid tiny backwater, where ‘Scotland doesn’t matter’?
This was all so predictable on 19th Septemeber 2014. Brexit, dissolve Holyrood, send in a couple of thousand English civil servants, and make sure the tanks are at the ready.
‘You’ll have had your tiny wee parliament’, lolz, nothing more than a ‘parish council’!
The UK is the US’s bitch, Scotland is the UK’s ( England’s) bitch. Fabulous.
Controversially, I believe the SNP should include in their GE Manifesto a Scottish EU referendum for 2025.
It would be after we settled, and discovered how it was going. And it would be giving the decision fully to the electorate.
It is possible that the SNP believe that their strategy for an Independent Scotland requires stability in England.
We do not want a chaotic neighbour when we are Independent, as much as some would take an uncaring viewpoint on that.
It’s in the best interests of Scotland for England not to be some neo-fascist hell hole.
Three paragraphs in and I hate the premise of this article, already.
“the chances of securing a second indyref”
There was an election with a second indyref in the manifesto of the party elected to govern the country and the parliament endorsed the mandate by a clear and unambiguous democratic majority. The UK government is compelled by international law (which it committed to in writing voluntarily) to respect self determination of peoples as a legal right and, therefore, can’t do something which directly contradicts that fundamental principle. A second indyref has been secured.
Remember Article 50 has five parts and Part 5 is reserved for Scotland.
“A second indyref has been secured.”
How’s that working out?
The thing that strikes me is Brexit, or rather it’s buoyancy.
In the beginning there was Tory Euroscepticism, which was pretty anodyne until UKIP and Farage came along.
Fearful of losing ground to UKIP, the Tories farted out a referendum, confident the result would be staying in Europe, and the annoying UKIP boil would be lanced.
But having won against all odds, and staring up at the enormity of what they’d done, Farage said “job done”, quit his Party, and ran away. The three Tory Brexiteers, Rees-Mogg, Johnson, and Gove, all ducked responsibility for Brexit, and left Brexit in the hands of former Remainer, Theresa May.
Despite “nobody” being especially keen to be the figurehead of a Brexit initiative, in fact the Brexit “Ringleaders” had essentially ran away, at no stage was the general public allowed to run away from Brexit, because the UK media pumped steroids into the notion that Brexit was a National obligation, whereas stubborn Remainers were an affront and a threat to democracy. No threat to Brexit would be tolerated.
The Leave Campaign was guilty of breaking the law and Electoral Protocol, but despite the fines, Court cases and Electoral Commission bumping it’s gums, at no time was the validity of the referendum questioned. No threat to Brexit would be tolerated.
When May tried to undo the Brexit crochet, the Tory canoe suddenly found there were rocks and rapids in Shit Creek, and they couldn’t be moved. The EU apparently didn’t read the Daily Mail and didn’t know the script on Brexit, and while the Irish Backstop is often described as the UK’s idea, it was nevertheless inevitable and always going to be there… an unmovable.
With Theresa’s May’s preliminary attempt at a Withdrawal Agreement, the EU’s intransigence and the Irish Backstop suddenly brought Brexit much too close to objective reality, and a nation shitting itself and perhaps thinking twice about Brexit could not be tolerated, so Farage was ushered in again, riding a wave of invisible money to put the UKIP brand back together, only to discover brand UKIP was unfrocked as a racist and thick as pigshit, but No threat to Brexit could be tolerated, so a new “Brexit Party” was magicked into existence, trumpeted by the media, and encouraged to hijack the EuroElections. Not bad, Party inception to a busload of MEP’s in a few short months. SNP must be green with envy. (Sorry, couldn’t help myself).
With May stuck between a rock and a hard place, hemmed in by reality and unable to move forward or back, all the pressure is on the Brexiteers, because the longer it takes for Brexit to happen, the more pennies there are dropping from the pound collapsing, and Britain is in danger of a premature recovery from its insanity before the dirty deed of Brexit is in the back of the net.
So May has to go, and an increasingly stale and faltering Brexit needs tarted up with Boris the Buffoon put in charge. He only has to keep it together for a few weeks until the default Brexit kicks the U.K. out. What could go wrong? But wouldn’t you know it? The hopeless charlatan Boris Johnson is a hopeless charlatan, and can’t keep Brexit on it’s collision course even for a few days.
So. …..Where am I going with all this, you ask. Well take a step back. The impetus for Brexit is NOT political. The Brexit campaign has changed it’s clothes time after time, and recycled it’s leadership with indifferent cynicism. If the Tories won’t deliver, then they’ll invent UKIP. If UKIP won’t deliver, then they’ll invent the Brexit Party. Brexit isn’t a political stratagem, it’s a shapeshifting xenomorph which alters it’s appearance when discovered. It’s a political Trojan virus.
Brexit is the will of the UK Deep State, the money men in grey suits. It doesn’t matter if Boris Johnson was to be struck by a meteor tomorrow morning. By tomorrow afternoon there’d be some other gormless Patsy parachuted into the driving seat, and a gaslighting media promotion cementing their credentials and confirming they’ve got what it takes to get the job done.
Brexit is a titanic battle between a partially anaesthetised democracy and the wicked greedy Deep State manipulators who are administering the anaesthetic.
The UK is fighting Brexit tactically, battle by battle, but the driving force behind Brexit, (and I promise you that’s neither Boris Johnson or Farage), has a global dimension to it’s strategic campaign. It’s Brexit they want for it’s global ramifications, and the UK is expendable.
Take down Boris, and there will be ‘another’ Boris by the middle of next week.
Brexit doesn’t need a referendum or General Election to fix the mess. Brexit needs a forensic judicial review by UK Security Forces with Emergency powers of investigation and arrest. The UK has had it’s central nervous system attacked by factors unknown, and is only just beginning to realise it.
And all those dodgy Twitter accounts over the last few months, ranting; ‘Now is the time, or I’m tearing-up my SNP card!’ – it appears that ‘now’ in fact is not the time and I wish they’d just fade away.
Sure, most unionist Polls are bound to show favour to their own, but Wings has a few Polls since ’14 and none of them show Yes stretching-out, endlessly, into the galaxy.
As the SNP have been urging for a long, long time; keep working, stay positive, use your influence, show Scotland in a good light, and let the Tories do what they’re good at.
Yes, a hard Brexit and its barbaric consequences – no matter how tough on the lives of Scots – might garner a Yes stretching endlessly.
Let us suppose that a general election leaves Labour in a position of being the largest party, but where only the SNP (well, and presumably also the Tories but can’t see a “grand coalition” forming outside of wartime) have the numbers to put them in power.
Now Labour can say what they like at the moment about how they won’t do a deal with the SNP, and will dare them to put the Tories in power instead, but in this scenario without the support of the SNP they (Labour) can’t assume power in the first place. The Queen is not going to summon Jeremy Corbyn to form a government when he self-evidentially lacks the confidence of The House!
Even if they somehow dodge that bullet it would leave them largely at the mercy of the SNP! Imagine Labour propose a piece of legislation (it matters not upon what subject), the Tories propose an amendment that Labour+SNP defeat and then the SNP propose an amendment which the Tories+SNP support (the SNP because they think it a good amendment, the Tories simply to cause trouble for Labour) and it’s carried. What do Labour do then? Vote down their own legislation alongside the Tories, or pass the SNP amended version?
There are international laws against keeping and fleecing colonies, serious sanctions can be applied through the UN. Refusal of a section 30 will start that process. Still lots of water to go under the bridge yet, still time to wait.
England seems to ready to become a one party state and that will be the end of the UK as the world will not allow this to happen, remember Hitler.
starlaw@4.21
The UN are about as much use as a chocolate ashtray.
Israel condemned by the UN for war crimes, and NOTHING gets done.
If we hold our hopes with that lot we are FKD.
OK, the SG have to formally ask nicely for an S30 from whatever Gov Westminster can cobble together. I have always assumed this would not so nicely be refused.
Plans B,C and D will come out the locked cupboard.
No army can stop an idea whose time has come.
Victor Hugo: Les Miserables.
Our job is to grow the concept of Independence into an irresistible force that the World at large recognises. Our future does not rest in the hands of Westminster. It rests with us.
This article is founded on a capitulation to the propaganda that we don’t have a right to self-determination unless the UK government, in whatever form it takes, says we do but it shouldn’t need to be explained to anyone that what the UK government says and what is true are separate things which overlap only occasionally.
Every time anyone says they (whoever ‘they’ are) will refuse or block a second indyref, they’re effectively saying we don’t have that right to self-determination that every people on the planet has – and it isn’t true.
For all this nonsensical presumption, no one has ACTUALLY blocked or refused to allow the second independence referendum, yet. Stuff has been said but nothing’s been done. “Now is not the time” is a procrastination. It’s not a refusal. It can’t be refused and it can’t be postponed indefinitely.
Bob Mack@3.01pm
“Nicola wanted an election now but apparently was met by resistance by the Westminster members.”
Bob do you know that is true because you say apparently. What is the source of this info?
The problem, if this analysis takes hold, is that we could see the re-emergence of the decades long view of the electorate in Scotland that voting SNP in Westminster General Elections is pointless.
Nobody can convince me that the SNP falling back to the 6 seats they held in 2010 would be as useful for independence as having 50 seats in Westminster, even if the near random nature of FPTP voting failed to deliver the balance of power to the SNP.
50 seats for the SNP, followed by persistent refusals by Westminster to allow an S30 would likely result in a Holyrood Election in 2021 with the SNP declaring that election as a de facto referendum on independence.
Believe me, if a genuine majority of the people of Scotland want independence, it will happen, one way or another.
Too many here wishing to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory!
I have waited over seventy years so you lot can wait a few more weeks.
Cut oor Nicola some slack!
Breeks @ 16:09
<i.The thing that strikes me is Brexit, or rather it’s buoyancy. … The impetus for Brexit is NOT political. … Brexit is the will of the UK Deep State, the money men in grey suits. …
There is no doubt in my simple mind that brexit was necessary to avoid EU poking its nose into the money laundering affairs of those people in grey suits and their bosses. Follow the money, follow the money …
So did Broadcasting Scotland Capella.
link to broadcastingscotland.scot
Simples…
Forget IndyRef2 and opt for the simple process of UK GE resulting in SNP securing >50% of votes cast and >50% of seats in Scotland = Indy.
Next!
“The SNP, and the Yes movement, definitely and urgently need a Plan B.”
Not so at all..
Anybody that imagines the SNP is not fully aware of the other options (Plan Bs,Plan Cs, call them what you will)is naive in the extreme and has little understanding of the political realities that they are very aware of indeed.
Plan A is the gold standard road to independence.It is supported by the UN Charter, by the Scottish Claim of Right and even the Smith Commission. It is the route the SNP must follow.
To presently publicly consider at “Plan B” is a concession and a surrender to the divisionists and confusionists (and those seeking to undermine our FM. Do you think we haven’t noticed?)
Should the UK government however unequivocally refuse a powerful demand (ie supported by a Scottish majority)for a Section30 we the enter a different ball game. At that point.
But presently we go powerfully for Plan A.
Stuart
Your glass is continually ‘half-empty’
That I should start to lose faith in our most Indy determined blogger…saddens me to my core.
robertknight 4:55
Hopefully that is the Plan B that the SNP are keeping under their hat…If it has no place on their agenda, we are in dire need of a second Independence Party at Holyrood.
Dave McEwan Hill @ 5-14pm
Say it again Dave!
Neil Mackenzie says:
8 September, 2019 at 4:41 pm
This article is founded on a capitulation to the propaganda that we don’t have a right to self-determination unless the UK government’
How many times do people have to understand what national sovereignty is?…First you have to establish by some historical and legal precedent, such as an Act of Union and confirm it with further affirmations of that Sovereignty e.g. a Claim of Right.
However, if you allow that Sovereignty to be constantly over-ruled , ignored, reduced to a historical oddity, then three hundred years later have a Referendum that confirms that subordinated and non sovereign status, then you are in trouble.
Particularly, when you have a year later, a loophole of regaining that Sovereign status by having the vast majority of seats and over 50% of the popular vote, but decide that ‘now is not the time ‘ to assert this. But repeat trying over the next 4 x years to keep getting mandates that no longer have any real meaning as you have abandoned your Sovereignty de facto.
You could well find yourself in a scenario where the dominant partner in that Union over rules your subordinate parliament and legal system and de jure rub your redundant status out of existence and make it constitutionally impossible to ever appeal to the world to recognise you e.g. Catalonia.
Now do you get it?
I now believe the SNP are hoping for the ‘nuclear option’…No Deal…total collapse of the UK system politically and economically…a and a grateful phalanx of soft ‘no’s’ and fearties flocking for Indyref. I don’t believe that will happen as the British American Project will ‘manage ‘ the decline so that more political upheaval will be unwelcome to that group of people. Ordinary folk i.e. non politically involved, just want ‘it over with’..unfortunately, I’ve been told that time and time again.
Tam the Bam.
It must be difficult when there are so many conflicting positions being posted here, many of them from pretendy supporters who have been sent here by an establishment which understands how powerful Wings has been in our journey.
However I am more concerned by the good guys who are swallowing the unionist bait.
As history should inform us it doesn’t matter how high some of our soldiers are never allow your guard to drop.
In politics total trust is a weakness.
If anybody imagines our movement is not heavily infiltrated they have no understanding of our enemy.
@Neil Mackenzie 4:41pm
Well said.
Fuckng well said, thank you.
A massive pro Indy vote needed in May 2021 if we are refused Indyref2. We can only be sure of that if we can persuade 50% of YESers to vote SNP 1 Wings 2!! I’m sold. Put it in the manifesto that in that case we move to dissolve the Union.
Good to see English nationalism on the rise.
I see Dave McEwan Hill is back on miscalling anyone who questions the SNP policies for Brexit/Indy again. A Stalinist view of dissent is not a pretty approach for a democratic movement Dave. But you obviously embrace no disagreement with the ‘party line’.
I objected to the outburst of McCarthyism and lists of ‘suspects’ that broke out on here recently. Yet you are encouraging this mindset again.There are many so-called SNP supporters who trolled too many good free thinkers off this site. I’m not descending into the sad level of invective adopted by the ‘righteous’ on here by naming and shaming these intellectual zealots who brook no disagreement, but since they have disappeared , for what ever reason, the level of debate has risen again.
People such as you, appear to feel that division over the road map to Indy is somehow unhealthy. Yet that is what made this site so dynamic in the past. I suggest that you stick to analysing and explaining your interpretation of what the SNP leadership’s plan A etc is, rather than attacking people who may be contributing for the first time legitimately. They have a voice too.
starlaw @ 16:21
There are international laws against keeping and fleecing colonies, serious sanctions can be applied through the UN. … England seems to ready to become a one party state and that will be the end of the UK as the world will not allow this to happen, remember Hitler.
To expect UN’s or the “world”s help us is breathtakingly naive. The “world” is biased to status quo, embellished by pious hopes and best intentions. Independence can only come from the grass roots, all else is bound to fail.
Re Adolf: Mercifully England is militarily in no position to emulate Herr Schikelgruber. Even such a simple matter as annexation of Austria might be out of question.
Unless it can be shown in clear evidence, that the EU has promised to help Scotland gain independence and secure access to the EU, on condition that the Scottish government helps to reverse Brexit, and no deal Brexit, then I refuse to believe that the Scottish government and the SNP party, are acting wholly and exclusively in Scotland’s best interests.
Pressure. Fair squeezes the patience out of ye.
In all this focus on the clown circus of WM we seem to be (mostly) missing the crucial factor here: the people of Scotland. Things are uncertain right now because there isn’t a clear preference one way or another, indy or Union. But just one poll puts indy a statistical wobble ahead and all hell breaks loose in the BritNat camp. If we are fed up with the ongoing stasis, just think how worried our opponents are. Because they know we only have to win once.
It seems to me that what people are lacking is clear guidance, someone who can lead the way forward. And the difficulty of the SNP having to “keep its powder dry” is that it makes this impossible to do. Hence the annoyance to many of us – the committed – of the fighting talk with no action. Thankfully there isn’t anyone in the opposite camp, through their rank ineptitude, able to do this either.
This is the real point about a forthcoming UKGE. Not in the likelihood of producing another fine mess in the clown circus of WM, as it likely will be, but in the opportunity for Nicola and the rest of the SNP to finally come out fighting. To offer a clear and unambiguous way forward that can finally rally the necessary public support.
Because once public sentiment tilts unambiguously in favour of indy, as I believe it will, it’s “game over” for the BritNats. And they know it.
And most importantly of all, the people of Scotland will know it.
Yip. Totally agree with the conclusion, we need a plan B.
I am frankly astonished that the SNP think by repeatedly asking nicely, Westminster will say ok have your referendum. I mean seriously, just look at what is currently happening down there.
And here’s the point. We all know an election is imminent, so here is how the SNP should play it. Request section 30, and GET the agreement tied up BEFORE the election. If Westminster refuses, simply state well, we tried, but under our Scottish claim of right, Westminster is blocking democracy, therefore in the forthcoming election, if the Scottish electorate choose a majority of pro independence MP’s, we will regard that as a full mandate for the ending of the treaty of union. Such an approach is totally legitimate, it is forced because Westminster is simply refusing any other option.
THAT, is how you get political leverage.
Telling your opponents, you will not do anything whatsoever, except keep repeatedly asking for a section 30, is giving them a cast-iron way to prevent Scottish independence forever. Every single MSP and MP in Scotland could be SNP, and still Nicola would be asking Westminster for a section 30. And having it denied.
I just do not understand the utter timidity and lack of political strategy of the SNP leadership. It is like they are afraid of their own shadow.
Mea culpa. There is no “e” in Schiklgruber. Profound apologies.
Dave McEwan Hill said:
“If anybody imagines our movement is not heavily infiltrated they have no understanding of our enemy.”
Hmm…I fear that the British might have taken the opportunity to expand their efforts on that front back when the Scottish parliament was being set up.
It would have been glaringly obvious that an organisation[SNP] that had barely a dozen MP’s, assistants, and HQ staff combined, working for them, was wide open to infiltration, when that number was due to increase exponentially.
With no evidence, I would be willing to wager that a fair crop of wannabe James Bond and Matta Hari spooks have traveled the uni-researcher-MP/MSP route.
If I was trying to track them down, I would look first at those who’s cv’s include a spell at an educational establishment in the USA and also the woke-wing.
There will also be a few confined to a computer screen in some god-forsaken basement of a GCHQ outopost in the frozen north…but I’m not sure that we have much to fear from them.
My theory is that the SNP under Ms Sturgeon don’t want independence: they want increased devolution. So, the SNP leadership never wanted to hold an indyref between 2016-21.
Their 2016 manifesto deliberately put a series of conditions to an indyref that seemed unlikely to happen: that England would vote Leave and Scotland would vote Remain and the UK would drag Scotland out of the EU. Thus, the SNP made no preparations whatsoever for an indyref campaign as they expected the UK would vote Remain.
The runes all landed the wrong way for the SNP delivering the indyref mandate. The SNP can’t admit they don’t want indy or their vote would plummet.
So, the SNP have fought tooth and nail to undo that mandate. eg Stop Brexit. They even offered a compromise Soft Brexit, so they could drop indyref, by arguing staying in the Single Market is what they really meant by staying in the EU. That appears to have failed.
So, the SNP now seek an s30, without needing one, in the hope and expectation that it will be refused. The FM insists no indyref without an s30.
The SNP will use that s30 refusal, or UK refusal to respond, as the excuse to not hold an indyref and try and pin the blame on the UK Govt.
They will then seek another devolution mandate at Holyrood in 2021. That’s why Stu’s idea of a Wings Party has rattled the SNP and its acolytes by threatening their plans for devolution administration for 2021 onward.
Based on their performance to date I don’t believe the SNP have any cogent plan. I’m so fed up waiting for any sort of progress that I (reluctantly) chucked my party membership about 3 months ago.
Colin Alexander
They can’t possibly have infiltrated the SNP to that extent…but I suspect you know that…LoL!
My God…They are everywhere!
Must have anoyed them by saying “we have nothing to fear”.
We are rapidly approaching the crunch point I predicted the minute Boris Johnston became PM.
If the judiciary sides with him, that he can by whatever mechanism, ignore a parliamentary instruction which has gone through due process, then the only thing left to save parliamentary democracy is the constabulary and military.
And they will only do so if there is massive public unrest.
I know Stu is wondering what “Plan B” is, or what solution the SNP in particular might effectively enact. I’m also aware of the recent proposal for a “Wings List” party.
To my mind, that must have been predicated on the SNP and independence support not having collapsed and a referendum not having been held, prior to 2021.
So, inferring that is a tacit acceptance of a ‘Long Game’ for Independence – I wonder what Stu thinks a hypothetical political situation might be in 2021 and what the effective “Plan B” might be, that ‘Wings List’ is to facilitate.
Risking the Hammers – I think by now Rev’, I am becoming aware, through numerous inciteful posts, of what you don’t think will be effective and of what you disapprove – is there any chance of an article discussing a solution you would like to see happen.
Putting the cart before the horse does not work.
Scotland must be dragged out of the EU against its will, and for its people to lose its EU citizenship with all the rights that entails before any Referendum on independence.
Should the EU grant a further extension, the GE produce another hung parliament, and People’s Vote produce an identical result. It would take several years for the UK to leave the EU if it ever does!
Also, the UK government has repealed the EU Communities Act 1972 and replaced it with the EU Withdrawal Act 2018.
That put EU law into UK law.
I cannot see any new UK government wanting the new Act to be repealed and the previous one resurrected.
Also, devolved powers the EU has responsibility for will be returning to Scotland.
There are new civil service hubs in Edinburgh and Glasgow for new departments moving from Whitehall
The few returning powers the UK government want a UK wide framework, require the consent of the Scottish Parliament.
I recall reading a UK government report on progress of talks with the devolved governments claiming the Scottish government had agreed a framework on all but four and that progress on the last four was being made.
Odd that these talks are not reported…
Vlad 16;21
The annexing of Ireland might not.
Lochside at 5.48
Perhaps you can indicate where I attacked anybody who attacks the SNP line.
I am entirely entitled to attack or defend the “SNP line” as I see fit and have done both at regular intervals.
I am also entiteld to believe that “Plan B” is naive divisive bullshit AT THIS POINT which is made clear if you understand my post.
Which I’m sure you do.
youtu.be/hIHUv2ooG38
Vlad
“Re Adolf: Mercifully England is militarily in no position to emulate Herr Schikelgruber. Even such a simple matter as annexation of Austria might be out of question.”
—————————-
Vlad. I didn’t know England was interested in annexing Austria, has Boris J come up with something new..??
————————–
“Mea culpa. There is no “e” in Schiklgruber. Profound apologies”
—————-
Vlad, there is. It’s between b and r
BTW, the daddy of Adolf was a Schicklgruber. Austrian spelling. 😉
Neil Mackenzie at 4.41
Hallelujah. Somebody who gets it.Thank you.
The UN Charter (to which the UK, a member of the Security Council, is an original signatory) the Scottish Claim of Right which passed unopposed on 4th July last year in Parliament and even the Smith Commission (final paragraph) makes the UK refusing “unsustainable” as Nicola pointed out.
ElGordo
Fortunately I do not suffer from photosensitive epilepsy … I’m sure that some do, or they wouldn’t keep warning people about it on the telly.
mr thms
I politely suggest you are mistaken. UK Parliament would only be required to consult and seek approval from the Scottish Parliament.
The EU Withdrawal Act says that basically Holyrood’s answers are interpreted thus:
Yes = yes
Consent refused = yes
No response = yes.
Dave McEwan Hill says:
8 September, 2019 at 7:37 pm
Neil Mackenzie at 4.41
Hallelujah. Somebody who gets it.Thank you.
The UN Charter (to which the UK, a member of the Security Council, is an original signatory) the Scottish Claim of Right which passed unopposed on 4th July last year in Parliament and even the Smith Commission (final paragraph) makes the UK refusing “unsustainable” as Nicola pointed out.’
Spain is a signatory to the UN Charter. The UN celebrated its signing in Spain of the 71st anniversary in 2016.
The Smith Commision…yeah that really means a lot…the unchallenged ‘claim of Right…guess why the gangsters in the HOC ignored it when they could have voted it down? because it was irrelevant, a sham, we had already asserted our ‘sovereignty’ by rejecting it and defining ourselves as slaves in 2014.
And your point is Dave?
That is the impression that the UK parliament likes to give.
In the same week that David Cameron was in Brussels negotiating with the EU over new deal (Brexit Lite) which would have been the outcome had the UK voted remain, the Scottish government announced..
link to google.com
The Scottish and EU referendums are connected.
Mist001@2.00pm
Spot on. It is clear that Sturgeon is trying to stop Scotland getting independence. Do you think she is a secret agent of the British state? Sturgeon. Nicola Sturgeon 006. Reporting for duty when she goes down to London.
Neil Mackenzie
Dave McEwan Hill (Nice to see you back).
I don’t agree with the view that the UK would cave in to pressure from the UN, (assuming the UN could and would rule in Scotland’s favour).
Are the UN gonnae send in the Blue Helmets to give Scotland an indyref?
By the way, how’s the Chagos Islanders getting on since the UN ruled the Chagos Islands belongs to sovereign Mauritius?
Has the UK bowed to international pressure to comply with that UN legal ruling?
No !
“The revs blogpost in 2016 stating that attempts to,
“game” the Holyrood voting system were a “mug’s game””.
What has changed?
Apart from a new party is in the offing.
Come on!!
Colin Alexander at 8.09
Don’t be bloody silly.
O/T
Chatter tonight over whether Boris Johnson and Dominic Cummings cd declare a national emergency by using part 2 (Emergency Powers) of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 seek to scrap the European Union (Withdrawal) (No6) Act 2019 and thereby avoid having to apply for extension?
link to twitter.com
Follow up to the above
No, the Civil Contingencies Act 2004 does not come to the aid of Brexiters
This much-misunderstood statute does not say what the Brexiters think it says
Will try to find time this week to set out what that Act does say
link to twitter.com
Makes you wonder if there is any sense in voting SNP.
We got 56 out of 59 MPs and what did we do with. Absolutely nothing.
Since then, and still with a majority of Scottish Westminster MPs, together with an independence majority in Hollyrood, we do nothing.
So what would another super majority achieve?
The bottle has gone, the revolution trap is the comfort and the MPs are happy to play in the Westminster midden
Time for a Wings party to increase the indpendence vote in Hollyrood.
Would smarten up the comfortable time servers too.
Colin Alexander
Reading some of the posts on Wings recently you may be able to sell quite a few of your “make Scotland great again” “SNP baaad” “Sturgeon out” baseball caps. Only problem is not on the 5th of October in Edinburgh. Best try the Tory conference I am sure you will get a warm welcome.
There is no mystic meg. Even intentions change from day to day. Just more voters good intentions. Another IndyRef will happen when people in Scotland vote for it. Not jumping the gun. Successful campaigns happen one campaign at a time. One day at a time. Especially in this complete and utter mess. The Tories unionist complete and utter shambles. They could not make a bigger mess. The Westminster complete imbeciles. Just as well support for SNP/Independence is increasing. Demographics. Gives Scotland a better chance of stability. Smart folk.
Polls can be wrong. Especially in tight margins. Used by illegal fraudsters and money launderers to manipulated the vote. The bookies a mug’s game are more accurate. Or a donkey’s tail. Throw of the dice.
Confusing a GE result and a Ref result are not compatible or helpful, without qualification. Quite different.
Meanwhile I see over on Ian Dunts twitter account. Gove is looking at deploying 1600 troops to deliver fuel under Civil Contingencies Act/or Emergency Act – sorry can’t remember exactly which act… and LibDem leader is speaking to re likes of Rory the Tory to see about reaching a deal whereby the LD’s don’t stand in the recently IndyConservative seats.
Some things however, have not changed.
A S30 is an agreement for both sides to respect and uphold the results of a Scottish IndyRef2.
One side cannot be trusted in any shape or form to uphold such a treaty – and for evidence of this we need only look at the Chago Islands, or Eire and Northern Ireland WA.
A S30 order would not be worth the paper it was written on, and would not last for as long as it took the ink to dry, pending England’s interests lay elsewhere. (wee spoiler – England can’t afford to lose Scotland, we pay the UK’s bills).
Seeking a S30 order is like begging for a level playing field – when the game is well underway, in the second half and we should be firing in goals at every turn.
Other things that have not changed – 31/10/19 we leave the EU with No Deal – unless A50 is revoked (and its not being proposed anymore at WM), or a deal (most likely Terrible Mays deal resurrected) is voted through – and that will be time consuming.
Parliament is still all set to prorogue between 9 – 14th September until 14th October when there follows up to 6 days of ‘debate’ about the Queens speech.
Under the fixed term parliaments act – 25 working days are required – absolute minimum – to call a GE. I worked it out last time and 13/9/19 seems to be D day for calling it to happen before Brexit Day.
The PM – is legally obliged (but might not) to negotiate an extension of A50 for us with the EU – though I’m sure we would all rather he was dead in a ditch. I can’t think of anyone worse or less trustworthy to do this. The EU is under no obligation to grant it – and why would they, it will just prolong the agony. That talk is scheduled for 17/10/19.
Labour don’t want a GE – because they’re going to lose in England.
None of the English parties want a GE because the SNP are going to win big, in Scotland.
None of them are going to sign any form of mandate to grant a S30 order to Scotland before a GE – because it will leak to the papers, and they will lose votes in England because of it. As they are not in power, when they do come into power, that contract will be null and void because ‘events/circumstances’ have changed.
A GE before 31/10/19 looks incredibly far fetched now. An orderly deal looks unlikely.
The ensuing Westminster disruption will be grist to the mill for a No Deal Chaotic leaving, chaos means Civil Contingencies Act being invoked, across the UK. Which means Holyrood and Westminster and the courts being shut.
All the plan A’s and plan B’s and C’s are relying (as far as I can see) on what our manifesto would be in a GE. More pleading for a S30, or all out declaration of a vote for us is a vote for Indy, and every shade in between.
We will be lucky to get a chance to have any of them.
Cubby
In homage to Dave McEwan Hill for showing himself to be the bigger man, I’d like to quote him:
“Don’t be bloody silly”.
Without the SNP there will be no Scottish independence
The SNP is at the forefront of the Scottish independence campaign
Without Nicola Sturgeon there will be no Scottish independence in the near future
A new leader of the SNP at such a crucial time in UK politics would be a devastating setback
Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP will lead us to Scottish independence all we have to do is keep cool heads and avoid attacking other Scottish independence supporters
You may not agree with all the different points of view but surely you see that keeping every vote onside is essential
Let’s do it
Budgets cuts stopped 2016. Now 2019. Yearly budget considerations?
Split the vote between SNP and Wings could lose a safe, consistent majority, A political Party needs a manifesto etc. and funds. To obey electoral rules. Not a lot of mavericks. Just confuses voters, An increasing mess of disillusionment? Despite good intentions? Not helpful? might be a set back. Or a step back.
Campaign to change the voting system. To one voters and everyone else understands. Not D’Hond’t. Just ridiculous. A complete non mandated unionist mess. Leslie Evans.
Willie at 8.22
Is that “Willie” as in short for William or “Willie” as in something entirely different.
An S30 order can be obtained through the Courts because Scotland has been unfairly treated under International Law. Ie EU/UN. Right to self determination and self government if voters vote for it. The reason (limited) Devolution was achieved. The same argument/issue. The Scottish Convention/Assembly can achieve this once again. Concerned citizens. The reason it was set up again?
People in Scotland can go outwith/bypass Westminster governance and petition the EU/UN. It has been done before successfully, many times, and can be done again. Under International Law/Treaty. Sanctions and judgements can be placed on (UK) governments that do not agree to uphold International Law. Change their intentions. The EU know what’s going on, The Westminster government breaking the Law. A government that makes the Law breaks the Law. Breaking EU/International Law. Total. Corruption. Punishable by Law.
The reason why the SNP is popular and successful. Is because they do not lie but stick to manifesto promises. Wherever possible. Uphold them. The reason they are trusted. They do not lie. The only Party in the UK that do try not to break electoral promises. Even from some voters who do not support Independence. They too believe the SNP can be trusted more caring management.
SNP branches being primed now for GE within 10 weeks. Independence will be central theme.
Be on the doors and round the people shortly.
Probably meet Colin Alexander. Aye,right
Daisy Walker , i said the other day that there was no concensus in the EU to grant an extension, the BBC website is reporting (sorry not linking to it) that France will reject a request unless there is political stability. Cant see that happening for a while!
Colin Alexander@8.50pm
“Don’t be a bloody Britnat”
Waht I have recognised over the past couple of years is that if sombody makes a good and telling point the pretendy friends are all over it – giving the game away.
Willie@8.22pm
“Makes you wonder if there is any sense in voting SNP”. Not if you are a Britnat. Are you Willie?
Whats with the outburst of violence at orange/republican marches in glasgow
Is somone winding them up
Are thw police watching who is winding them up or are they looking the other way
@ Dave McEwan Hill says:
8 September, 2019 at 9:22 pm
SNP branches being primed now for GE within 10 weeks.
So, second week in November ish?
If there is a No Deal Brexit that is likely to be during peak disruption time I suspect, if not in Scotland then in South England.
Shug 9.44.
Exactly what occurred to me when that slimebag Annie Wells MSP conservative raised the issue at FMQ’s.
SectRianistic Orange pretendy outrage is all the Tories have left. but still potent if not handled sensitively.
Yes this is the 21 st century!
DMH
So you are privy to the SNP`s inner sanctum, they call you up and keep you in the loop about their supposed plan b`s and c`s, you alone know their strategy Gosh.
You think you are on some higher intellectual plane calling those of us who dare to question the SNP as naïve, pretendy supporters and trolls. Well we are not answerable to you or anyone else for our opinions and after forty years of supporting the SNP I for one don’t care to be lectured by an arrogant twit who hasn’t the grace to respect other opinions without reverting to petty name calling.
In-D-Car Gordon Ross 8.9.19 – Lib dems are doing deals with expelled Tories in upcoming elections
link to youtube.com
Have said this before but bears repeating:
Power, real power, is taken not given.
We have to get off our arses!
It is fairly straightforward, although laborious, matter to find out exactly what would have happened for various imagined transfers of SNP list votes to third parties on the list.
I did so myself for the 2011 result.
What I found was that even if 30% of the the SNP list votes were at that time transferred to third party recipients it would only have resulted in a net gain to total pro-indy MSps of 2
If 50% were transferred, you start to get a significant effect. At that time it would have increased the indy MSP total by 11.
If 100% of SNP list votes were transferred to other* pro-indy parties then you would have got something like 96 pro-indy MSPs that is about +25.
So the process is potentially very successful but ONLY if a large percentage of SNP list voters can be persuaded to do so.
In 2016 I didn’t have the time to do a full analysis, so instead I just did the reverse scenario, i.e. calculating what would have happened if all the list Green voters had instead listened to the vocal consensus at the time and voted SNP on the list instead. It showed that the total pro indy MSP total would have been reduced to dangerous levels although the SNP would then have scraped an outright majority.
* The target party(s) does not really matter. In 2011 it was the Greens and SSP, but the number of parties does. 2 is better than 1, 3 not so sure 4 and above and you are splitting the vote adversarily.
“It is fairly straightforward, although laborious, matter to find out exactly what would have happened for various imagined transfers of SNP list votes to third parties on the list.”
Watch this space…
Dave McEwan Hill
With all your years in politics, tell us please:
Before the devolution Scottish Parliament was created 20 years ago, by which political / democratic means did the SNP seek to establish Scotland’s people had decided to dissolve the Union?
Also that other slimebag Historywoman labelled all English forIndy supporters as catholic or more catholic than the Pope.
It was only later reflection that made me think she was labelling them as Jacobites.
May we be protected from the Tory Unionist separatist disruptive discordant slimebags.
I really am not liking the result at Culloden even though my clan supported the Hanovarians.
None of the Unionist parties will ever give us a Section 30 order (even if, like Labour, they temporarily promise us one). No Prime Minister wants to have as a personal legacy that England’s 300-year control over Scotland was lost on his/her watch.
Without a Section 30 order from the UK Government it’s unlikely that any advisory referendum / UDI would be recognised by the world. Bodies such as the UN and EU pay lip-service to the right to self-determination. However in practical terms – as we saw with Catalonia – it’s all about current treaties and, ultimately, might is right.
Our best plan meantime is to try to develop international friendships – trade links, educational and academic exchanges etc. – as fast as the UK Government is shedding its own. We’re helped by the fact that our Scottish Government comes across as more ethically and ecologically progressive than the UK Government.
The Scottish Government has been forging such links for a long time. This has the UK Government worried to the extent that it’s stopped funding Nicola’s trips abroad and has banned the Scottish civil servants from going abroad. Three cheers to the Scottish Civil Service for ignoring this attempt to isolate us in the world.
All those non snp members telling the SNP what to do.
Thanks guys but we can choose to ignore the unionist trollers and the could not run a ménage Scottish socialist workers!!
McDuff at 10.02
Rather proving my point. Thanks
Perhaps you can find some example of me actually abusing anybody.
Mary McCabe at 10.23
“None of the Unionist parties will ever give us a Section 30 order”
How do you know?
Dave McEwan Hill
Am I correct in saying that for many many years, SNP policy was: The election of a majority of SNP MPs would be regarded as the SNP having a mandate to open independence negotiations with the UK Govt?
Which means the majority SNP MPs would effectively be representing the sovereignty of the people of Scotland?
Am I also correct that the plan was that the provisional Sovereign Scottish Govt would later hold an indyref to confirm independence? No s30 or UK Govt consent required.
If that was valid then, why is it not valid now?
Is the election of a majority of SNP MPs no longer valid as a mandate for taking sovereignty away from Westminster and back to Scotland, because the SNP can now achieve a majority of SNP MPs?
Colin Alexander at 10.40
Exactly. It was the case until the SNP changed it.
You know. As you do as politics moves on.
Any other questions?
This post on Wings is in my opinion the poorest I have ever read. Pity considering all the brilliant posts that have gone before.
There is a strong element of Dads Army about it – we’re doomed doomed I tell you. Essexexile will be on soon to say “I told you so” ” we’re all doomed doomed.” Independence no more will be the Proclaimers new song etc etc
Hamish100
Hey, credit where credit is due, there was a time when the Socialist Workers were rabid Scotland deniers, and would justify their position with pish like :
“We’ve more in common with the working people of Liverpool and Leeds than we have with the Duke of Buccleuch”. while advocating self determination for all people everywhere except in their own country.
That is no longer the case.
socialistworker.co.uk/art/47312/100%2C000+join+Scottish+independence+march+in+Edinburgh
Colin Alexander@10.40pm
You know all that. I know all that. It has been well aired on Wings before. So why are you raising the question now. Oh that’s right you are a shit stirring Britnat.
highlight text – right click – select “go to..”
@DMH, Daisy Walker and others –
What happened here on Friday night was shocking and, I’m sure, upsetting for many (including Rev) but it had to happen eventually. The tension in this place has been building for months.
I’m not a precise thinker. I don’t do ‘detail’ very well and I find anything involving stats really quite difficult. Mibbes just laziness on my part but there it is. That’s why I can’t offer any thoughts on the substance of this post.
But that doesn’t stop me having an opinion, and I have to filter pure ‘opinion’ to find out whether or not there’s anything there which could be of use to those who can do the ‘stats & details’ stuff. Seems to make sense, that we pool whatever we have, right?
But that’s where it fuckin hits the buffers…
The idea that we co-operate – given that we all want the same thing – is simply not acceptable to some in the Yes movement. Because they want it all, and they want it their way.
They’ll happily snaffle ‘big vision’ rhetoric and ideals from others, and incorporate whatever details happen to serve their particular agenda, help to make it all more effective. But the idea that any groups or individual players should get their hands anywhere near levers of actual power is a complete no-no – that power is the birthright of ‘those and such as those’ within the whole Yes/Indy movement, and we footsoldiers are nothing more than the muscle (intellectual and physical) required to put them where they feel entitled to be.
Names?
Nah.
(They know who they are, and so do a lot of regulars here. Some of them used to *be* regulars here!)
Must be so tempting, eh? You can see indy drawing closer…so close you can taste it…the rallies grow bigger and bigger…the British State is committing death by a thousand cuts…Brexit is causing mayhem…
All you have to do is sit tight, maintain undying, unquestioning allegiance to SNP – if you’re ‘in there’, nae danger. You’ll get a gig when independence is secured.
How could you not be rewarded?
It’s unthinkable!
The idea that such careerist cynics could be using all of us to ease their progress into public life makes me want to fuckin honk my actual guts up, but it has to be factored in to any equation by those serious about calculating the likelihood of indy happening anytime soon.
If Scotland does become independent? we’ll have to deal with another configuration of the same cunts who’ve always held power in this country. For them it’ll just be be ‘Business As Usual’, minor tweaks required, nothing too tiresome…
This place means nothing to such characters, even if they read it secretly at each and every opportunity. The dismissive tone of Nicola to the WOS ‘party’ idea speaks volumes.
Sorry to be so gloomy, but that’s how I’m seeing it all right now. I hope I’m properly wrong.
(I’ve just read this again before hitting ‘submit’ – pretty sure I haven’t named anyone, but you’ll know who I mean anyway.)
🙂
Well “Colin Alexander” is out in force again, I see. Quite an opportunity for the sower of confusion. Accuses the SNP of being content with “devolution” =pshaw= when “better devo” was once (among others) his big thing whilst that canard still had a feather or two and a vain hope to fly. Some of us have had our quibbles around the edges of SNP strategy, but if anyone believes Wormtongue and his fantastical musings they need their head examined.
As to the current ruckus, “S.30 or no S.30?”, let’s leave it be for now. There will be a UKGE before long, after the current UKGov has been humiliated just a little more, and the more pressing questions will be such as “will Farage’s little pirate crew help wreck the Torn Tories?” and “Just how many gains will the SNP get?”.
It’s a simple matter of priorities. First things first. The most important of which is that the SNP have clearly every intention of coming out fighting for independence this time, and will achieve a significant gain that will further demoralise our opponents and show the world that they have only one leg to stand on. A wooden leg full of woodworm. So quit squabbling and fantasizing please, and focus on that one important next step.
If the rest of the UK descends into another slough of parliamentary directionless dithering, so what? Our solution doesn’t lie there, nd never did. It will merely further demonstrate that the UK doesn’t have broad shoulders but actually none at all, and emphasise to all that we are our own safe haven and a sound way forward.
Said it before…
If during the next few weeks, either side of Halloween, there’s a UK GE, all the SNP need to to secure Indy is as follows…
Cover the country 2′ deep in election leaflets with the following manifesto pledge:
“If over 50% of the votes cast in Scotland AND over 50% of Scottish constituency seats are won by the Scottish National Party at the UK General Election on (insert date), the SNP will appoint a cross-party and cross-community ‘Scottish Grand Committee’ to return to Scotland the status of an Independent Sovereign State, with membership of international organisations, including NATO and the EU, to be determined by the citizens of the Kingdom of Scotland.
VOTE SNP FOR AN INDEPENDENT SCOTLAND”
No need for a ‘Section 30 Order’as there’s no longer a need for an IndyRef2.
The SNP won 50% of the vote AND 95% of the seats in 2015…
Get both the majority of seats AND votes and that leaves no wriggle room for the “Ah yes, but…” brigade.
Global Thermonuclear War.
Would anyone like a nice game of chess?
robertknight @ 23:22:
Oh, we did notice.
But politics isn’t as simple as that. There is no need to nail ourselves to any figure in advance, it only gives our opponents another superfluous means to scoff if we somehow fail to clear some ambitious self-erected hurdle. No-one with any sense would do that unless they were pretty damn sure it was going to be surpssed. Do you? (No, didn’t think so. How could you? How could anyone?)
The result, whatever it is, will speak for itself. And if it does deliver something more spectacular than we have any right to expect from a UKGE with all its London bias and other distractions, then we can make a very tasty meal of it anyway.
That at least is simple.
Worth a look over on twitter GetReatTodayUK, also Jo Maughan QC.
O/T
*Wings stall info*
The Wings promotional stall was very warmly received by the Perthonians, and all visitors to the beautiful city, yesterday.
The sun was shining and we heard that the marchers got a great welcome, with folk lining the streets and hanging out of windows along their whole route – another cracking day for the indy grassroots!
Again, there was lots of positive discussion about the Wings Party proposition, and generally about how the debate has promoted a more thorough understanding of the Holyrood system – Wingers are a bright bunch 🙂
Many thanks to all our volunteers for helping to setup and run our wee operation – special mentions to our stars Liz G and Ronnie A, and to Dan our personal Perth greeter.
Everyone’s input is appreciated, no matter how small – that’s what makes a successful collective!
Brilliant to see so many btl folk popping by for a gab too (stay tuned for news of the next Wingers social!)
Thanks also to everyone who donated their pennies in exchange for some of those famous Anderson insults (and a free badge).
Remember that if you’re looking for campaign material to distribute around your local area then we’ve got loads, so bring a big bag next time.
Next stop before Edinburgh is Hope Over Fear’s George Square Glasgow rally on 21/9 – meeting for setup at 9am at the Walter Scott monument in the centre of the Square – see you there!
The reason the SNP dropped the GE option is a very simple and obvious one. A GE is not fought on a single issue and it is much more difficult to get a majority vote for independence as many folk,some of then actually independence supporters,vote for the party that have always supported in a GE.
It’s normal party loyalty.
It is much easier and more sensible to establish a majority for independence in a single issue referendum.
Many countries have gone independent on a parliamntary vote but that has been in cases where and obvious, long term and demonstrable majority of their country’s people have supported independence.
If Indyref has to be the gold standard for international recognition of an independent Scotland, then so be it.
But achieve it by exercising Scottish Sovereignty, through obtaining a mandate from the people of Scotland for the SNP to exercise Scotland’s sovereign power to hold an indyref.
No permission should be sought from the UK, if people of Scotland are asked and give their sovereign mandate for Scotland to hold an indyref.
This would be a Scotland only indyref. Nothing to do with the UK state. It would be Scotland’s people exercising their Claim of Right.
No asking permission, no seeking of an s30, no subservience:
Scotland exercising her sovereignty.
Asking permission!
From who/what?
After witnessing the anti-democratic shenanigans thrown up by Cameron’s Brexit shambles?
Please Sir, can I have some more?
Returning 30+ MP’s is all we need, if that’s how it’s put to the people of Scotland.
Rest easy, the people of this disunited Kingdom will get what they voted for in 2016. The inevitable upcoming GE will drive the process on
Who actually gives a flying feck what Corbyn thinks today, or tomorrow!
Let’s imagine that the SNP win 51 seats at the (likely) upcoming GE, and that Sturgeon (as promised) officially requests a section 30 order, under the terms of the Scotland Act, so that a referendum can be held. Let’s not forget, she has not formally requested one yet. Let’s suppose that the UK government refuses, and that the Supreme Court backs the UK government in the inevitable lawsuit, brought by the SG.
There are (it seems to me), only three options left.
1. Run an “unofficial” referendum.
2. Wait for the next GE and then declare in the SNP manifesto that a repeat performance of 50+ seats would trigger a Declaration of Independence.
3. The SNP put a similar promise in their manifesto for the 2021 Holyrood election.
No.1 is problematic, because it is probable that unionists would boycott such a referendum, and international recognition of any subsequent Declaration of Independence would be doubtful.
No 2 would be a good option, but the yes movement is becoming tired of waiting, and ….. events …
No 3 would be my preferred option, because it is likely to be sooner than the next GE, and it would be a purely Scottish affair. Wrt the option of Wings starting a new party, I am not as pessimistic as James Kelly of “Scot Goes Pop!”, because Wings has a huge footprint in the yes movement, and it would (IMO) have a better chance of succeeding than Solidarity or RISE had in 2016, and at the time, (as we all remember), Stu pooh-poohed the idea of “gaming” the D’Hondt system. Everything depends on the question asked in the poll that Stu has promised before the decision to launch the party is made. I agree with James Kelly, that the question should be:-
If the following parties stood on the regional list ballot, who would you vote for?
Scottish National Party (SNP)
Labour
Conservatives
Liberal Democrats
Wings Over Scotland
Brexit Party
Greens
Change UK
UKIP
If polling shows that a Wings party wouldn’t reach the “seat-winning threshold, (around 5%), Stu has promised not to form a party, in case it harms the number of indy seats. If the figures show that this figure would be exceeded, then I would say go for it. To reiterate, asking the right question is crucial. Stu should not stand as a candidate for the Wings party (IMO). He is too divisive a figure (IMO), and not standing would preserve his status as a voice speaking to power, and would prevent accusations of self interest being levelled against him.
Ruglonian
Perthonian see Perthite
Schrodinger – Damn, i was going with Perther until I was, apparently not, corrected on Saturday 😀
@ Ian Brotherhood, I get where your coming from and I’ve felt the same at times – and been deeply hurt by the name calling – and I’m also no saint and have lost my tempter too.
Well, its darkest the hour before dawn.
Brexshit is so big, there really isn’t going to be time for ‘business as usual’ tribal, gatekeeping stuff. I think its going to sweep aside nearly all party plans to be honest, including the SNP’s.
Its going to be all hands to the pump, and we shall be very grateful for them all – regardless of previous disagreements over policy – when the time comes, (don’t look at your watch).
Some things to see positively:
England is in the mix now – 50/50. That’s 55 million people the British Establishment now have to ‘manage’. All of them are disgruntled.
Wales – the Dragon is stirring. Even more of a split for the British Secret Service to manage.
The Army: They don’t have the numbers they did in the 70’s. If NI kicks off – or even looks like it – they haven’t got the numbers to occupy it like they did before.
Police – England’s Police numbers are so low, they are struggling to deal with day to day stuff. They really don’t need riots in any (never mind more than one at a time) major city.And on top of that deal with Operation Stack/food and fuel shortages.
If Police are the back up plan for NI – they can only ask – not force – for volunteers. They won’t get a lot once the bombs and bullets come out (praying it won’t get to that).
Scotland’s Police, our numbers are not as bad as England’s. Also not so much pressure/tension in our major cities. Again can’t be forced to go to NI.
Information – mobile camera phones and internet access. Think Catalonia – the BBC and others tried – and failed – to create a false narrative. They did not succeed.
Scotland’s people and history – we can and we always have managed to get the ‘real story’ from one end of the country to the other, and more than that, we instinctively look for the real story. England’s culture is much more msn dominated. Information is key.
If I were a British Nationalist with kind thoughts and genuine love for the whole UK, standing shoulder to shoulder as one, etc… at every stage since 2014 from Cameron’s EVEL onwards I would be pulling my hair out at the stupidity of their tactics. They have doubled down on being bastards. The same tactics that have cost them every single colony in the past, only now its on their own doorstep – and even they are realising they can’t shit there, not with the neighbours looking.
Now its all falling apart on every single front. Shit or bust indeed.
When the mainstream news is showing Lord Paton openly decrying his party over English Nationalism – the games up. That is the one thing they could never admit to, anymore than they could openly admit that Scotland pays the bills.
And last but not least there’s all the YESSERS. We are not going to riot, or panic, or fall apart. We might well quibble about the best route up the mountain, but we’re all agreed its the same mountain. And we are now a significant chunk of the population that is well versed on the political situation. God how they must hate that;)
And so here we are. Aye standing yet.
Its definitely Perthonian… not that I want to start any more disagreements… but you know, there’s a principle here.
Hi McDuff at 10:02 pm.
You asked,
“DMH
So you are privy to the SNP`s inner sanctum, they call you up and keep you in the loop about their supposed plan b`s and c`s, you alone know their strategy Gosh.
Strategy? Here’s a wee quote for you – an extract from an email I received today. (My capitalisation.)
“Dear friend and supporter,
The next few weeks will be some of the most important in Scotland’s journey to independence.
Whilst Johnson and his Brexiters attempt to ram through a deeply damaging No Deal Brexit, I and my colleagues will do everything in our power to stop them. If you are interested more on my thoughts, please have a read of my latest e-newsletter here.
As Scotland is set to be dragged out of the EU against its will, support for independence continues to rise. Poll after poll is showing that Scots are fast changing from No to Yes.
However, make no mistake: despite the polling, we can never be complacent. A General Election will be called any day now, and it is vital now more than ever that the Scottish people send a loud and clear message to Johnson and Corbyn, that we, the people of Scotland, must have the right to determine our own future.
This is your opportunity to join us on the election campaign trail in our pursuit of independence. You can be key to helping to make that difference.
WE ARE NOW ON AN ELECTION FOOTING.
Yours for an independent Scotland,
Chris Law MP
Dundee West”
Daisy Walker @ 00:13:
Absolutely. That’s the crux of it. Entirely unintentionally, of course, they’re on our side! =laugh=
Brian Doonthetoon at 12.20
Thanks. With some of the stuff I have read today I got too pissed off to answer. What gets on my tits (and I don’t have any BTW) is the number of people who have absolutely no idea of what the rest of us are doing almost daily but who think they know whats going on.
If some light relief is required.
And just to prove their stupidity, have a look over at Munguins Republic. Article there, woman from NI who ID’s as Irish, being taken to court by the UK telling her she can only be British because she’s from NI.
This is breaking the Good Friday Agreement. An International Treaty.
I wonder if they are trying to get NI to go boom. In that way get their state of emergency.
I’m not saying this to cast disrespect on the SNP or NS – its just the truth. A S30 order – an agreement to respect and honour the Result of an Indy Ref – would not be worth the paper it was written on. There is no respect or honour on that side. Recent events have proved that. Our policy should move on as a result.
Perth and Dundee folk are Taysiders, so dinae start any pish or we’ll set oor phazers tae malky!
link to youtube.com
Dave McEwan Hill @ 00:58,
It’s a well-known tactic to sow disillusionment and disengagement. And a predictable gaggle of willing hot-headed dupes always helps. Get people so confused and upset that they give up trying.
In the BritNat case, it’s about all they’ve got left. But it’s backfiring, hurting their own wilting support more!
Daisy Walker @ 01:05,
S.30-schmerty.
Don’t care right now. Let’s cross one bridge at a time.
Daisy Walker @ 1.05
I agree with ye,there was talk of the strength of the section 30 in the Lord’s in 2014 around the time the polls shifted for Yes. They were wondering if Cameron had the authority to issue the section 30 and if they were actually bound by it!
They seemed to think they would need to act if a yes vote was returned because it changed the whole UK and no individual Prime Minister could do that unilaterally….
So even then it was not worth the paper it was written on…
But the refusal of it could be worth a few votes. 🙂
Hamish 100 @ 10.32
At this moment in time the SNP are the Scottish Government we’re supposed to be telling them what to do!
That’s the whole point!!!
Nae membership required.
One of the main problems effecting a lot of Yesers, is that we seem to think getting a vote on independence will guarantee us or freedom…
It won’t!
The very best poll we have had so far is 52% for yes, so giving the 3% margin of error could take us into No territory, we simply must wait until we have climbed sufficiently enough in the polls to give us our independence.
If we fail again, it will give Unionists the perfect excuse to demand we wait some unspecified time until we are ‘allowed’ to have another.
Note to SNP leadership: As a long time Voter/supporter and ex member of the SNP, I find it difficult to even defend you in this thread.
Your behavior with the trans issues has lost you a huge amount of good will, that will only ever be truly won back again, by removing the SNP members who were behind this movement.
Patrick Roden @ 02:00,
Oh, heavens above, here we go again. The 60-percenter catch-22 raises its miserable head once more, just when we need inspiration. When will the ultra-hesitant finally wake up and realise that it’s only after we start campaigning in earnest that we can ever hope to increase support! Without a campaign we will just continue to wallow in inertia, going nowhere. If we don’t believe in ourselves, how can we expect anyone else to believe in us either?
Yes, of course we have to reckon there’s a decent change of winning through, but equally, a win will never be handed to us on a plate, wrapped in a nice red bow. Never. It’s this kind of defeatist hesitancy that drives me nuts. And judging by public reactions of late, a hell of a lot of other people feel the same frustration and impatience at this kind of thing.
People admire others who stick up for themselves and have the evident determination to drive something forward. The Leavers may be led by total phoneys, but if every independence supporter had their gumption instead of all this hesitant hand-wringing, we would already be independent by now.
Frankly, I see our pet trolls and moles efforts getting rather flaccid.
Must try harder.
Perhaps finding themselves spread too thin. Or now feeling a tad squeamish? Or just getting very very weary.
Never too late to change your mind 🙂
Increasing use of facilities by females their friends and families by using mixed changing rooms etc. With separate cubicles advantageous for females. Endorsed by the the millions of females that use them, every day with absolutely no bother. For increase access to facilities. A win win situation. Instead of spreading hysterical misinformation. With less likelihood of attack and higher participation.
Much healthier population all around. Win, win for society. Benefits outweigh any negatives. Or doomsayers. People who do not use them. The prudes. who often do not engage in sport or healthy activities. The couch potatoes. Outraged on behalf of others who do not use them. Or realise the advantages for women, their families and friends of higher participation in many activities. Totally increasing the benefits all round.
Seriously, trying to predict how people will vote in years time, in ever changing circumstances, is deluded. Especially in the way humans change their minds, repeatedly. A natural human reaction and emotion. Most folk do not know what they will have for their tea tomorrow. Never mind how they will or will not vote in a few months/years time.
An interesting but pointless wind up. Pollsters fraudulently and illegally ripping off the public. Trying to manipulate the vote. The piper pays the tune. Gaming statistics.
More people should join the SNP, support, fund and campaign. To increase the 120,000 members who already do. Instead of millions leaving it to others. Or often criticising in the sidelines.
A constant is support for the SNP/Independence rising. Demographics. How high it has become in just a relative few years. Really surprising. The imbeciles at Westminster getting found out repeatedly. Another one gone, down one down. Another one hits the dust, Not looking too healthy for unfit Johnston. Too much greedy lies. Dishonestly at the forefront. Liars always get found out.
A S30 order can be gained through the Courts because Scotland has been so unequally treated by Westminster imbeciles, under EU/International Law. A right to self determination and self governance cannot be denied. If people vote for it.
A Convention/assembly can apply and succeed. Or do it not just the SNP (members). The Convention/assembly already set up, was that the cause. Even more easily. It was done before for (limited) Devolution. The Westminster imbeciles had to conform under EU/International Law or face unpleasant sanctions by defying the Law. Lose the right to (UK) representation and privileges, under International Law. Those that make the Law and break the Law face sanctions,
DMH at 1134pm,
I understand the point you make about a GE as mandate for indy, I respectfully don’t agree. But, even if I did, why on earth is the Scotgov seeking Westminster’s permission for a referendum?? That is not how you get independence for any country, with Westminster behaving the way it is. OK, it worked in 2014, but it has been steadfastly refused over and over again. So how will a referendum ever happen? do we have to wait possibly many years, until such time as a prime minister in Westminster decides to ‘allow’ a referendum??
I honestly, just cannot see how the current strategy can work. We should not be repeatedly begging permission. It insuts and ignores Scottish sovereignty and the claim of right, in every possible way. The Scotgov should not ask, they should simply SAY they are going to hold an indyref, name the date start the campaign then Seek a section 30, if it refused, proceed with the referendum anyway. The Scotgov no longer has the luxury of being able to sit back and wait, wait, wait, until Westminster decides to be ‘reasonable. Look at what is happening. This is an emergency.
This is why indy supporters are getting angry. Like myself and others they see we could be sitting waiting for years for ‘permission’ while Scotland, its businesses and people get utterly shafted by brexit.
Please convince me otherwise.
See Nana’s links here :
link to indyref2.space
Do you think any plans SNP have are going to be shouted from the rooftops.
And meanwhile in a parallel universe Philip Rycroft, ex-top civil servant in the UK gov’s Brexit department is speaking at the David Hume Institute in Edinburgh the nicht.
His topic? “Brexit and the Union: what next for Scotland in the UK?”.
An almost tearful Mr Rycroft was given a platform by Shortbread TV this am to warn that unless the current PM and his successors embrace federalism the U.K. Is in danger.
“It is within the UK Government gift” to do this, said Mr Rycroft, someone to whom the notion that Scotland should be anything other than content with being handed fake beads and baubles as and when our imperial masters see fit, is utterly alien.
Two things stand out here about which I invite readers to make up their own minds.
1- BBC Scotland reported this “event” in exactly the same way when Gordon Broon climbs out of his crypt to assail us with his decrepit British nationalism – extensively.
Yet of the wonderful Perth independence march at which, significantly one would have thought for the media, SNP deputy leader John Swinney addressed 20,000 marchers, absolutely feck all.
2.- a cursory look at Mr Rycroft’s cv shows he was embedded in senior positions with the Scottish Executive and subsequently the Scottish Government,
He is an ardent UK nationalist who was employed by an administration whose avowed aim is to break the British state in which he so passionately believes. He is not alone in that belief in the upper echelons in the civil service at Holyrood.
And I’ll leave that right there.
Me
Motion in Parliament today for early General Election,
what circumstances could give this any chance of getting passed.
Dave McEwan Hill says:
9 September, 2019 at 12:58 am
Brian Doonthetoon at 12.20
Thanks. With some of the stuff I have read today I got too pissed off to answer. What gets on my tits (and I don’t have any BTW) is the number of people who have absolutely no idea of what the rest of us are doing almost daily but who think they know whats going on.’
And that comment neatly sums up your arrogant and myopic, and dare I say grandiose opinion of yourself in relation to others on this site. Toys firmly back in the pram Dave, you have now continued throughout this site with slights and sneers at anyone that disputes your vision of never ending GE mandates and pointless pleas for Referendums.
Well I don’t agree, not because I’m a ‘pretendy’ supporter, nor because, like you, I am one of a clique, but as someone who has supported Independence for his whole adult life and is beyond frustration with illogical strategies by the SNP. The Rev, who has far greater time and inclination to explore the outcomes of the current policy has more or less reached the same conclusion that I and others have that the SNP do not want a show down on Independence, at least not in the very near future.
i believe this is because from 2015 onward they have been bought over by the Westminster puppet show. No-one on here from your coterie of strategists has explained why in 2 x years the SNP lost the initiative to such a degree that 1/2 million votes were shed. To me the answer was obvious: the massive vote by the ‘YES’ electors was turned off by SNP playing the Westminster game e.g. AS leading a sing song of ‘ode to Joy’. Something that only career politicians would think meant anything.
We voted for change back then. But the SNP decided to change their own rules. And people like you go along with everything that is a denial of what the YES people want because ‘It’s normal party loyalty’. Well many people are not interested in narrow party interests. They are interested in their sovereign European status being taken from them with all the real dangers of food and medicinal shortages..yes even death as a direct consequence of evil English Nationalism yet again stamping on our rights as citizens of Scotland.
You partly agreed with me on a previous thread about the black ops approach currently taking place in Glasgow to stir up the ‘Loyalist’ mob. But you rejected my analysis that is part of the BritState’s undermining, at all costs, of our movement. In that case, why is it happening? Why is the msm conflating these attacks on Republican marchers ( whom I have no time for either) as ‘equal’. In the same manner they did when the same scurvy mobs attacked our YES youth in George Square?
The answer is because we are under attack at every level. But our leadership is allowing us to sink into infighting and fear because it is weak and indecisive. Believe me, I would allow all my doubts to evaporate if I could see any chance of a way out of this constitutionally, but I see none.
Perhaps we should all reflect we are grasping in the darkness for something to aid our path. The bottom line is we are all guessing and offering solutions to obtain a referendum within our own knowledge.
I am well clued up as many on this site are to the various routes to independence, but like many I know not what the chosen route will be. It calls probably for patience on my part,which is in short supply.
It also leads me to challenge the views of others on here with my own blinkered view of how indy should be done.
No doubt there are dozens of others doing the same thing,which causes annoyance and resentment. At least one of us may well be right.
We need to debate,but we also need to respect the views of others with whom we debate. They hold sincere convictions just as we do.
There may well be trolls among them, but there may also be genuine indy supporters who see a different route to ourselves.
This forum is the best thing to happen for an independent Scotland. I would hate to see it sink into acrimonious berating of any dissent to a particular view. We have a common aim,but different route maps. My hope is we all end up at the same destination.
Great argument. Wrong conclusion. We don’t need a Plan B. We need a better Plan A. The problem with a creating a Plan B is that this assumes you’re going to get a second bite at the cherry. The attitudes and behaviour of the British political elite strongly suggest that this is not a safe assumption. We would certainly be wise to proceed as if we anticipated getting only one shot; if for no other reason than to eliminate any residual complacency and replace it with the necessary – and unquestionably warranted – sense of urgency that is currently missing from the Scottish Government’s approach.
What is the common factor in all these electoral calculations which lead to “OUTCOME: NO INDYREF”? Section 30! The problem is not the electoral arithmetic but the Scottish Government’s insistence on adhering to a process which, As WOS has shown, leads in every conceivable, barely conceivable and inconceivable scenario, to “OUTCOME: NO INDYREF” and, therefore, no independence.
Any outcome which doesn’t lead to the Union being dissolved in the very short term provides the British establishment with opportunities to create new and increasingly intractable obstacles to restoring Scotland’s independence. If we don’t get Plan A right, you can just forget the rest of the alphabet.
There is no route to independence through the twisting and shifting pathways created and controlled by the British state for the purpose of protecting and preserving the Union. Quite why anybody would think there might be is a total mystery given that this involves disregarding such a glaring contradiction. If we want independence, we must break the Union. And if we are determined to break the Union then we must be prepared to break the rules imposed in the name of and for the sake of the Union. Why is that not obvious?
There is another common factor in all the scenarios Stu Campbell has prepared. The all lead, not just to “no indyref”, but to the inevitable conclusion that the Section 30 process must fail. And when it fails, we are right back in the position of having to break the rules to break the Union. So why go through all that crap just to end up right back where we are now except with new difficulties to overcome in order to attain our goal?
Well just listening to Call Kaye – giving big push to sectarianism in Glasgow.
Westminster must be winding up the orange and green factions.
Thank you Kaye for alerting us
@Peter A Bell,
Great post Peter. It’s becoming increasingly obvious that section 30 order has no tacit support among the larger Cabal at Westminster. It would be economic suicide for England should Brexit go ahead with No Deal.
Who takes the lead in your scenario Peter ?Scottish Government or people. Somebody would have to initiate resistance.
Politically, Scotland is in the doldrums, and with no wind in our sails, and no petrol for the outboard, there’s not a lot we can do about it, but wait for a change in the weather.
Except of course, we could argue about it, with accusations of blame etc. It’s what we do in Scotland. It’s in our DNA. Why be surprised?
No matter, Independence is coming. It is time.
Robert Louis at 7.32
The SNP is not asking for permission to have a referendum. It is going to agree a Section 30 on a referendum it holds (and it can hold as many referendums it likes)which is an agreement from the UK that both sides will honour the result.
I can’t think of anything more sensible and simpler to understand.
And I can’t think of anything that embarrasses the UK more. They can’t win on this one.
@Dave Mcewan Hill,
I see just one tiny flaw in your argument. The SNP have currently a majority in Westminster (Scottish MPs), and a working majority at Holywood (with Greens) ,but have not used them to go ahead with a referendum since being eldcted.
Add to that the fact that Nicola has been requesting a section 30 order for the past two years without success,.
There appears at least to be no appetite from the SNP to travel the route you favour.
shug at 9.22
Exactly. Spot on post. We should call this out right now. The so called “unionbears”are being called out to attack and everybody is getting the blame.
Sent this to the National
I have entertained serious doubts about the “riot” in Govan last week. I could not find any photos of any “riot”. There was lots of photos of lots of policemen on the site so I assumed, if there had been a “riot”, those photographers would have captured it for our information.
Eventually I saw a photo of some policemen and something burning with some guys in black hoods who appeared to be shouting at something in the distance.
It has now been established that there was no attack on the band or marchers , no physical contact at all as the “protesters” never got within two hundred yards of the march and somebody set some bins on fire. It must have been some “riot” if all those polis only managed to arrest two persons.
The mainstream media however have elevated this to two huge sets of sectarian yobs engaged in battle though in none of the “yobs” had anything to do with the legal march.
Similarly two permitted marches the weekend marched entirely peacefully but the mainstream media are quite deliberately misrepresenting aggressive behaviour directed at them as if they were somehow involved in the disorder.
This has been an establishment plot to reintroduce sectarian worries against us.
More worrying is the thought that if these “ yobs on call” attack our march in Edinburgh will we get the blame?
Bob Mack @3.01pm
Bob at 4.46pm I asked you a simple and polite question. Any chance of clarification?
I noted your sentiments in your post of 9.12am this morning.
@Cubby,
Just read your comment.
Sorry for not replying sooner,but other family business has no timetable.
The Rev posted the article on his twitter page. I think he was trying to emphasise his concern that the SNP were too docile at present,or were concentrated on other issues.
That’s the Rev!
ScotGov will soon be able to call a referendum on any matter and the outcome will be legally binding. The legislation for this is going thru Holyrood as I type. To put the outcome of a Yes victory in Indyref2 beyond dispute ScotGov are hoping to get WM to sign S30. Should WM refuse to sign S30 then the issue cannot be decided by internal UK courts – the matter would have to be referred to international courts. I simply cannot see how, having voted for our independence in a legal referendum, any international court could decide against us. If UKGov still refuse then they will surely face the wrath of the international community and find themselves with all manner of sanctions. In short – for Scotland’s Yes vote to eventually win thru, we’re gonna need hauners.
Caller from the National hit the nail on the head – Kaye said there are 20+ republican marches planned – national chap there are 20+ planned but some are religious (Islamic)celebrations, some are young climate activists and a range of other causes – fake news from Kaye.
Nice wee lady followed by reporting the Perth AUOB march not covered by the BBC – as usual
@Proud Cybernat,
The US, China,India, and many other nations ARE CURRENTLY, in defiance of International Court Edicts. The US has actually stated that the International Court has no jurisdiction over anything .
That is not a guaranteed route, especially with the rise of populism in England. Would Boris or Niger be concerned about defying a court ruling? It appears not.
Sorry, it was Nigel, not Niger. Predicate xterm strikes again.
.
O/T, but BREAKING NEWS…
Just been watching Boris Johnson at a joint podium in Dublin with Eire Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and will need to relisten and read the exact wording but….
10 Downing Street’s political buffoon has slipped in paraphrased wording of a REUNIFIED IRELAND on certain levels to gloss over the backstop problem “for sanitary reasons”.
FFS That idiot of a U.K. Prime Minister and Psyco Cummings puppet master are REALLY playing with matches. Lit ones at that.
WoSers who haven’t seen this summit interview would maybes pick up some interesting points.
The press are politely spit roasting Boris, so am away back to the television.
“… it is vital now more than ever that the Scottish people.. must have the right to determine our own future…
Chris Law MP
Dundee West”
‘Must have’, Chris? How’s about ‘already have’? As a sovereign nation, Scotland has no need for the implicit request contained in ‘must have’.
Our starting point is Scotland’s sovereignty. Not England’s.
Scotland’s is a colonisation by stealth, but colonisation nevertheless. We are just the latest in a long line of colonised countries seeking the restoration of our independence which we had, like all the other ‘British’ Colonies, till the English cast their greedy eyes on us.
Independence is a demand. Just ask the other 62. Start with India.
Johnson in Dublin speaking. He can get a ‘deal’ with the EU. He can come up with solutions to the border in Ireland.
If he’s so confident in a ‘deal’ why is he worried about being forced to ask for an extension? Achieve deal, no extension necessary.
It’s the same logic as, if there are easy solutions to the border in Ireland, then why is he worried about the backstop? Solve border, no backstop necessary.
The only conclusion a logical person would come to is, he expects to fail on both accounts and therefore has issues with extension and backstop.
Does the media employ any logical people?
The intentional doubters of independence referendum, that attackers of Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister have mistaken the mood of Scotland.
In my estimation the continued dithering of labour as to what Brexit means to them and how individual labour MP’s will vote, the factional tories infighting with the right wing takeover of its executive has demonstrated more than we could do, the failed state that is the UK.
What it has shown to Gilbraltarians ( remember them), the Welsh, Irish and Scots that we are all expendable. The respect and support shown to Ireland by the EU the exact opposite shown by Westminster and the English establishment to the Celtic nations.
We have to watch the continued civil war in part through a right wing press But we are not as gullible as we were post war. We have other sources of information. As I posted last week a unionist to the core rangers supporting labour man openly saying he is going to vote SNP is the true mood of this nation.
In a few months we will be voting in a GE or Independence referendum. The tories and labour will be punished. Timing is all.
Hi Bob Mack .at 9:43 am
You typed,
Add to that the fact that Nicola has been requesting a section 30 order for the past two years without success,.
You seem to have inferred from press and TV output (spin/propaganda) that a Section 30 has been asked for.
No – it hasn’t. There has been no request, only an expression of intention to seek it when the time is right.
Taoiseach @LeoVaradkar says the Government would oppose the introduction of Direct Rule in Northern Ireland, though he recognises the UK is the sovereign government in Northern Ireland | | Live #brexit blog:
link to twitter.com
RTÉ Europe Editor @tconnellyRTE says @LeoVaradkar gave @BorisJohnson a warm welcome, but didn’t hold back in pointing out the problems the UK faces securing a future trade relationship with the EU in the event of a no-deal #Brexit | Live blog:
link to twitter.com
If Boris is considering a backstop for Ireland,then he is selling out the DUP. Scotland won’t benefit from this as the Good Friday agreement is protected by the EU and the US.
They won’t see Scotland has special status.
It sounds as if Boris is going to throw the DUP to the wolves and try to keep the rest of the UK intact to get his deal.
When a status quo has been allowed to develop that institutes the interests of a minority so deeply into a system of governance, expansion beyond that minority – genuine, transformative expansion – faces so many obstacles as to become inherently compromised, even preventively so.
The above is a quote, lifted directly from a story in the Observer. That story concerns World Rugby, the governing body for that sport.
I would suggest, it refers just as surely to the position Scotland is in as regards the UK, and our gaining our independence. The rules are so-slanted to suit the Union, we will face one almighty battle to release ourselves.
But, we know it will not be easy, however, it has to be done.
@Brian doonthetoon,
Sorry to contradict you Brian ,but you will remember the photograph of Nicola ,feet up on her couch signing that very request following a vote at Holyrood May 2017?.
Remember now?
For all the hysteria demanding SNP action now
What signals have the party had from the general
Public that we are ready to support them in any with the
Required numbers?
We have a poll showing a margin lead should Indy ref 2
Take place tomorrow but you can bet the next series of
False promises the UK Fake News teams and all the Dark
Money ploughed into the next Cambridge Analytics company
Will erode that lead.
This is our last chance for a generation at least.
We cannot blow until the storm truly rises.
Look at the First Minister’s Independence Petition launched
Months ago. She asked for only 300,000 signatures and it currently
Sits at 278,379.
Look at the petition requesting UN support for any future referendum.
It’s struggling to get near 10,000 signatures.
How about the fund raiser for our Indy Fags at 25% of target?
You can bet your life MI6-5, Anti terrorist groups, Police, Army and
UDA are there ready and willing to corrupt any referendum not going their way.
We need a right wing extremist Tory Government with Bojo the Clown, hater
Of the Scots as PM. We need a No Deal Brexit and we need all the pain and
Suffering from it to motivate the many. to sit up and notice demanding change.
Yes, I practice what I preach in all aspects above.
I sign, I ask friends to sign, I raise it with new contacts,
I’m afraid to add up what I’ve Spent on a variety of Independence support groups.
Today is another step in our journey.
I’m confident Bojo will get up to more dirty work after today’s vote and
He just keeps giving to rile people toward to independence path.
Long live the Fascist White Supremest English Elitist Empire builders as they
Opening the door to Scotland’s freedom.
Dogs For Independence Perth AUOB. (apologies if this was posted previously over weekend)
link to twitter.com
Seems to be a lot of bluster knocking about over the weekend and various hair brain schemes to avoid asking for an extension. I suspect the only one that is real is altering the withdrawal deal to be a Northern Ireland only backstop.
If true and if UK parliament votes for it there will be trouble ahead. Obviously the Unionists in Northern Ireland and the West coast of Scotland will go nuts.
However the economics will drive change more than the immediate reaction. It will put Scottish fisherman and farmers at a massive disadvantage to North Irish counterparts when it comes into play.That would be 2 years post 31st October.
That would mean that for the next 2 years the Scottish Government can bang away about the negative economic impact and differental treatment leading into the next GE and a Indyref in 2020.
I suspect if it came to pass it would from an Irish perpsective be seen as unification in all practical terms therefore a very short time period before a unification referendum and the end of Northern Ireland.
I’ve always though that if Scotland leaves the UK Union that Wales and Northern Ireland won’t be far behind. By the same token if Northern Ireland goes Scotland won’t be far behind. Its not inconcievable that the UK could end without the need for another referendum.
When the section 30 request is not granted then it’s time to throw the tea into the harbour!
Robert
Was your photograph taken at equator? Lol
Wsection 30 order signed by Nicola March 2017. Thought it was May from memory. Mrs May was then PM, so probably got into that thought trap.
@ Dave McEwan Hill.
Request a Section 30 order.
Your absolutely right, and rebuttals of this nonsense have been posted here and elsewhere repeatedly.
Nicola stated that she would seek permission from the Scottish Parliament to agree terms on a Section 30 order.
I can understand why the media keep running with this drivel, its their job to lie, and misinform the public, but you would think that actual independence supporters would know what she actually said.
The Scottish Government is constrained by the devolution settlement because that’s what we voted for, its our fault. They have to work with the tools we gave them and despite how blunt and inadequate they are, the SG are doing a damn good job.
Blame rests with us, because we aren’t constrained or limited by Devolution, we are a Sovereign people with unfortunately many within and out with our ranks who haven’t a clue what that means or how to use it.
The FM has started a petition, good for her, but its such a shame that it was left to the FM.
It should have been the Yes movement on every street corner gathering signatures, informing people and educating people just exactly how powerful a voice we have when we act as one. Ordering, not demanding action from our Parliament, to act on our behalf.
No, maybe not, much easier to blame Nicola.
Appeals to all and sundry internationally to help ‘Poor Scotland’, are all well and laudable in their sincerity I’m sure. But ‘we’ve bocht aipples aff thon cairt afore’
In Mr.Peffers absence, I might direct the temporarily forgetful towards Edward I, Phillip IV & Boniface VIII – That worked well didn’t it.
Two claimed Suzerainty over Scotland and one signed a peace treaty with the other and excluded Scotland from it. Scotland’s international envoy was hung drawn and quartered and Scotland was invaded severally.
Draw your own conclusions.
*Scotlands Interregnum (Baliols accession) 1291, Papal Bull 1299 (Scimus Fili), Barons Letter 1301, Treaty of Paris 1303 etcetera.
Bob Mack@9.52am
Thanks for the reply.
I think the question I asked is what is the original source – you mention an article – is it just from unknown sources? Does someone put their name to it that is a credible source or is it just rumour and gossip. If it’s the latter I have to question why do the Britnats work for them.
My view is that just because the site owner posted something on twitter does that make it true. Evidence to back it up?
Lord help us.
Nicola has already requested a Section 30 order. Holyrood voted on it in 2017 and Nicola signed it and sent it to Mrs May. What bit of that is difficult?
Holyrood has requested a Section 30 which can only come from Westminster who are refusing to engage.
It is going nowhere.
Holyrood cannot issue a section 30.
@Cubby,
I cannot help I’m afraid. It is the Rev’s info.
Most of us feel we are closer now to independence than at any time since 1706.
Yet it is at precisely this point in history that a man we have seen as a pillar of the Indy movement, a force for truth, comes out with some of the most potentially divisive stuff we have heard for a long time.
Some might wonderSome might find this curious…
Some might wonder if years of fighting,arguments, fearing trolls and saboteurs have made everybody just a touch paranoid.
There seems to be a plot or alternate meaning lurking round every corner.
Every word analysed and scrutinised to death. Every poster vilified if not agreeing to a common concensus or the dominant figures on Wings.
This is the Rev’s site, He decides what goes on it. We can discuss.
Perusing the Maltese government website (for reasons) was extremely interesting, as it’s probably the most succinct and accessible asessment I’ve read, for any European country’s preperation for a No-Deal Brexit.
I think it’s fair to assume an extrapolation for other EU countries.
I’d summarise, but it’s concise enough to bear reading itself, quite sublime.
link to gov.mt
“A former head of the Brexit department has said a new relationship between the Scottish and UK governments is needed to secure the future of the union. …. He suggested a “radical” solution such as moving to a more federal structure might be required to maintain the UK. “
What is it these people see in their UK that they feel worth saving? Why do they believe that it is in Scotland’s and NI’s best interests to stay in an abusive relationship?
They want to save their Union, but never offer any reasons other than nostalgia and bigger-is-best reasoning.
A “more federal structure”? They have had so many chances to take such a route and botched them. If they were serious about restructuring then five years ago was the right time, or earlier. And who wants a federal outcome anyway? No one in England, certainly. And what sort of Scot want their nation and country to be legally redefined as federal state? Only the über Scot-butts.
The UK is moving fast towards dissolution. Anyone believing otherwise is blinkered or cultist.
link to archive.is
BREAKING from the Guardians Twitter
parliament to be prorogued from end of play today until 14/10/19
Shit or Bust.
Reports that No10 is suspending parliament after close of business today.
Coups just got real.
cynicalHighlander said yesterday at 4:55 pm:
” So did Broadcasting Scotland Capella. “.
Thanks for that link cynicalHighlander —-I usually watch Independence Livestream but Broadcasting Scotland has equally made a fine job of the Rally,speeches and music—-picture and audio excellent.
One hour 18 minutes.
link to broadcastingscotland.scot
This constant harrying and questioning of meaning and motive by the same few on here is wearisome.
Posters are pilloried and bullied because a few on here have decided they are not the real thing.
All the different viewpoints here are an opportunity to rehearse arguments for the real thing. The Socialist argument, the SNP are not always right argument, the legal arguments for sovereignty.
On the doorsteps for those who campaign, if you came across someone with Colin Alexander’s Socialist stance who has always said he wants Independence, would you engage or say ‘you must be a pretendy supporter because you disagree with the SNP’?
If someone said they wanted Independence but they took issue with Nicola Sturgeon’s approach, would you say ‘how could you, she has wanted Indy all her life, therefore her stance must be correct?’
Because these are genuinely some of the answers that occupy BTL on a regular basis.
To constantly question meaning and to misrepresent what posters say because you do not like them is almost the norm here. It is done under the guise of legitimate questioning but it is nothing of the sort – it is designed to discredit the person by reinforcing the central point that nothing they have to say is worthwhile.
The ones who do it know who they are and they have no greater rights to an opinion or response than the rest of us.
Special deal looking a possibility for Northern Ireland with a ‘customs union’ called er..! Something else. 🙂
DUP maybe thrown under that London bus. 🙂
But nothing for you Scotland!
Ball bounces over the net to us …what do we do?
2@Robert the Truth,
I’m half expecting some of them to issue a Prerogative order any day on Wings comments ( smiley thing)
“Anchors of our Soul” on the new Skipinnish album is surely the song for our next campaign. Fabulous and moving. Download it now
RobertTheTruth at 12.19
“Colin Alexander’s Socialist stance”
You are having a joke,right?
Interesting times, no? The government is short of a majority by a long, long shot – even with Arlene’s Orange band. They are all saying the government is breaking the law, ruining the country, etc, etc. Now if only there was some form of sanction that could be applied…some sort of vote of censure or vote of confidence or something…
So why don’t they do it?
An Ireland only backstop was always the EU’s preferred outcome. May rejected it to sook up to the DUP and probably on consideration of the Union itself.
As I understand it, if NI is allowed to stay closer to the EU than any other part of the UK and given favoured trading arrangements, this is a direct breach of the Treaty of Union.
@Robert the Truth,
I think your point has just been proven.
@Call me dave
They should throw the DUP under the bus – they’re useless now anyway as even with them the Tories are waaaaaaaaaaaay short of a majority – but hat doesn’t matter as the Opposition lack the nuts to vote them down in a confidence motion.
The obvious solution to the backstop is a custom’s border in the Irish Sea and not along the border. It makes geographic sense and there already exists such a border for agri products. The Tories would have jumped at that were they not dependent on the DUP. And as for numbskulls who want to blabber on about the ‘integrity of the UK’, Northern Ireland was ALWAYS a place apart. You probably know that NI was the only part of the UK to have it’s own devolved parliament from 1921 to 1972, but did you know that up until about the 198s0 – I forget the exact date – people from the rest of the UK actually needed a work permit to work in NI? Where was the concern for the ‘integrity of the UK’ then?
Customs border in the Irish Sea, backstop solved, deal done. Oh and just because a few moo cows would be getting their udders felt as they come off the ferry wouldn’t mean that NI wouldn’t still be in the UK – or is that concept too difficult for some to grasp?
Roger says:
My understanding is that Boris losing a vote of no confidence, or having an election, won’t stop the ‘no deal’ crash out on Hallowe’en.
I think it’s pretty clear that his plan (Cummings plan?) is to try to run the clock down and avoid being forced to seek an extension. It’s probably too late to guarantee stopping him with censures or elections.
So, the opposition are attempting to force him to seek an extension should he fail to get a deal.
How many people in Scotland remember these jingles:
‘A million housewives every day
pick up a tin of beans and say,
Beanz Meanz Heinz’.
‘A Mars a day helps you work rest and play’.
It didn’t take long for us to learn these for they were on the telly every day, repeatedly. Even now, they are still ‘stuck’ in our minds.
Now, compare that to Westminster propaganda :
‘Scotland’s too poor to be independent’.
Also ‘stuck’ in the minds of millions of Scots still.
By focusing on being poor, Scots were suckered into forgetting about their Sovereignty, if they ever knew about it in the first place – with a little help from English history lessons at school. And the Labour Party of course. Never forget the role they played in suppressing Scotland’s right to a restored, post-colonial, Independence.
Many people are unaware that they are ‘brainwashed’, either by Heinz, or Mars, or by Westminster. But Supermarket shelves are never without Mars bars or tins of beans. And elections and referendums are never without those same old brainwashing lies-come-beliefs.
But, like bubbles of captured air, rising to the surface, the truth is also coming to the surface about the disgusting abuse meted out by the English to all its colonies over hundreds of years, and no less to Scotland. Based on lies and unbridled greed, the English Establishment built an Empire of power and wealth which sustains it to this day from its vaults in offshore tax havens. Including, among other lucrative revenue streams, the seemingly endless oil, gas, fresh water, and wind-powered electricity from Scotland. Preserve the UK? There is all the motivation Westminster needs right there.
So, today, at some point (unless the Queen throws a sickie) Benn’s Bill to force Boris to go to the EU and negotiate an extension will receive Royal Assent.
And parliament is prorogued until 14/10/19.
On re-opening on 14/10/19 there is the Queens Speech followed by 4 – 6 days of debates about the contents of the Queens speech… which burns the clock down nicely.
17/10/19 there is the meeting with the EU.
31/10/19 we are out, with no deal, that anyone can realistically see, except perhaps Terrible May’s really, really shit one.
On the plus side, a Prorogued parliament can and would be recalled if they try and utilise the Civil Contingencies act.
A parliament shut down for the purposes of an election could not be.
Think its definitely time to stockpile the emergency supplies.
galamcennalath says:
9 September, 2019 at 1:04 pm
“As I understand it, if NI is allowed to stay closer to the EU than any other part of the UK and given favoured trading arrangements, this is a direct breach of the Treaty of Union”.
Really? A breach of which Article? Take your time now… Oh, and please note that the Church of Ireland being the established church and united with the Church of England was supposed to be ‘forever’ – according to the Act of Union. The C of I was disestablished in 1867…
But please explain how a custms border in the Irish Sea breaches the Act of Union…and make sure you are referring to the 1801 Act of Union
Call Kaye this am.
Discussing the trouble at marches in Glasgow. Kaye repeatedly says that “there are to be 14 more Republican marches this month” Martin Hannan points out that of these 14 marches only TWO are Republican.
John Beattie Show @12.10
Ex Lord Provost of Glasgow Janes Kelly asked about the ” Sectarian Marches” Ban all marches, no need for marches in today’s modern World. If people want to get a message out use social media.
He’s content for people to congregate in public halls and parks. Where the public wont see the strength of support for a cause.
Job done
@galamcennalath
Apologies for my previous intemperate post – and my other post about a Confidence vote was mean ironically. Basically I’m saying the Opposition are a shower fkn gobshites, cowards and chancers – no better than the Gov