Wings Over Scotland

A new poll by Populus for the Daily Politics is out today, with some interesting rankings for the four UK party leaders. (Which in a UK context includes Nigel Farage, despite his representing a party without a single MP while there are seven other parties at Westminster who do have seats.)

As you can see, UK respondents were asked to identify the three main qualities they associated with each leader, from a list of positive and negative ones. It’s fair to say none comes out covered in glory – fewer than one in five people think the UK’s Prime Minister is “competent”, for example. But the balance is striking.

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We’ve noted several times recently an increase in the intensity of the No campaign, which has really been ramping up the rhetoric and menace since the turn of the year. But it’s also been accompanied by a growing sense of denial, as every poll showing a shift towards Yes is dismissed with the use of ever-more-selective comparisons.

Last night as part of its coverage of the latest polling, Scotland Tonight retweeted a comment from Oliver Milne, the Chair of Scottish Labour Students:

You know how we love to check facts, readers. Let’s check the facts.

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The top five most-read stories on Wings Over Scotland in the last seven days.

1. We less, we happy less
Awful grammar and the same old scaremongering from “Better Together”.

2. Sympathy for the devil
The No camp tries not to rejoice at bad news for Scotland.

3. Please stop lying to us
Reporting the news from Things That Didn’t Actually Happen World.

4. The countdown starts tomorrow
We got the date wrong on this – just two days to go.

5. An apology to Gordon Brown
Instantly gazumped in the “old man gibberish” stakes.

This week’s theme: devo schmevo.

Three opinion polls this week have all suggested that Labour’s opinion-poll lead over the Conservatives is continuing to shrink. ICM put Ed Miliband’s party just three points in front, as do Ipsos MORI, while Populus have a mere 1% between the two parties.

For perspective, the same distance out from the 2010 general election, the Tories were 16 points in front. By seven months away from the vote, in October 2009, their lead was an incredible NINETEEN points, and they still couldn’t win a majority.

Who fancies Labour’s chances?

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We’ve talked a bit today about a fascinating poll by Survation for the Daily Mail last month, whose findings got very little coverage in the media, perhaps because they revealed the rather off-message fact of how ineffectual two of the No campaign’s three great pillars of propaganda have been proving.

But there was another interesting snippet in the results, which could confound the flurry of recent polls all showing the SNP with a commanding lead for the 2016 Holyrood election, regardless of whether it’s for an independent Scottish Parliament or a devolved one.

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As commissioners of opinion polls ourselves, we know all too well that one of the more unwelcome aspects of the pursuit is that sometimes you don’t like the answers you get – we were noticeably dismayed, for example, by one or two of the things revealed about social attitudes in our last poll.

Today’s media extensively covers a Survation poll for the Daily Record which finds the highest Yes vote in some time (despite an “if the referendum was today” preamble, which generally works against Yes), equating to 45% Yes 55% No, with almost a quarter of Labour voters now planning to vote for independence.

The full tables aren’t yet available for analysis as we write this, so to while away the time we decided to have a proper delve in the last one from the same company, run on behalf of the Daily Mail last month. And a couple of things leapt right out at us.

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We don’t say it very often, readers, but as a civilised human being with even the merest glimmer of empathy it’s hard not to feel sorry for “Better Together” sometimes. It must be absolute agony for them today, trying to talk about the slightly disappointing GERS figures without screaming “TOO WEE! TOO POOR! TOO STUPID!” at the tops of their voices, which is what they want to do so much they must be able to taste it.

Instead of naked glee, they must do their best to fake concern, and not appear too joyful to be reporting bad news for what they insist is (proudly, of course) their nation. We don’t envy them in having to maintain two faces and lie about their true feelings, no matter how practiced at it they are. The constant vigilance must be incredibly wearing, because dishonesty is exhausting.

The only way to never be caught out, after all, is to never have to remember which lies you told yesterday and to whom. So as always, we’re just going to give you the truth.

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The top five most-read stories on Wings Over Scotland in the last seven days. (Sorry, we’ve forgotten to do these for a couple of weeks. Things have been a little busy.)

1. The price of the BBC
A realistic analysis of how well off a Scottish state broadcaster would be.

2. Sticking to the script
Labour MSP Makes Idiot Of Self At FMQs Shock.

3. Damn that uncertainty
George Osborne has his eye on North Sea oil money, again.

4. What you didn’t read this week
Major story positive for Yes breaks, media studiously ignores it.

5. All your ducks in a row
…while not only repeating tired old scares, but amalgamating them.

This week’s theme: don’t believe anything you see or hear. Except here, natch.

We’ve been writing for quite a while now about the absurd-yet-deathless “Project Fear” scare story that an independent Scotland would lose access to BBC broadcasts (and thereby shows like Strictly Come Dancing, Match Of The Day, EastEnders, Doctor Who and, we dunno, Homes Under The Hammer or something), which was given another tired run-through last week by UK government culture secretary Maria Miller.

We’ve pointed out in some detail that it was complete nonsense, because the BBC is a commercial organisation which would actively seek to sell the rights to its output to Scotland, but what we haven’t been able to do previously was put a figure to the likely cost. Thanks to an alert reader, though, we can now fill in that gap.

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February full stats. No comment.

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It’s time to finish the job.

Just over a year ago now, the readers of Wings Over Scotland quietly revolutionised the independence campaign. When we launched the first ever formal public fundraising appeal for a Scottish political website (indeed, as far as we know the first for a politics site anywhere in Britain), your response was incredible.

Click to go to this year’s fundraiser

Our £30,000 target was smashed, enabling the site to become a full-time professional concern, and others followed in our footsteps. By our reckoning around £150,000 was raised in 2013 for various pro-independence sites and projects, including the Common Weal and “Scotland Yet”, a full-length documentary currently being produced by Jack Foster and Christopher Silver, makers of “The Fear Factor”.

Now we need to do it again.

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(An update on this post.)

If the next Ipsos MORI poll shows a significant drop in the No lead, we can probably call that definitive. The days of the No camp being 30+ points ahead seem to be well and truly over. Five out of the seven British Polling Council members polling on the independence referendum now put the required swing for Yes at just 5-6%. Looks like Wings pollsters Panelbase were at the cutting edge again after all.