The Fear Of The Briar
With Reform now pretty consistently miles in front in polling for the next UK election, logically this is brilliant news for the Scottish independence movement, isn’t it?
So can anyone explain why the SNP is so desperate to stop them?
That’s a rhetorical question, of course. As we’ve repeatedly explored on Wings over the last few years, the SNP don’t want anything to happen that might actually lead to independence, because independence would be the death of the SNP, and they like money and power far more than they hate the Union whose cash keeps the party alive.
But while the motivation of those in the independence industry – who need it to never happen in order to keep making a living out of it, and whose main imperative is always to kick it a few more years down the road and keep people chasing the carrot – is obvious, it’s still an interesting one to ponder for the grassroots Yes movement.
Because if your options are “Reform in power, leading to independence”, and “Labour or the Tories in power and nothing ever changing”, that should be the easiest choice in the world. Even if you’re not sure Nigel Farage in No.10 would have that effect, we know for SURE that the Lab-Con status quo WON’T, so it’s got to be worth a shot.
(And that’s even before you start contemplating the political realities, and all of the rational reasons why an English nationalist like Farage might be a lot more amenable to cutting Scotland loose than the likes of Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch.)
As it stands, nobody with more than two brain cells to rub together thinks there’s the tiniest chance of independence in the next five years at a minimum.
(Just days ago John Swinney himself told us he intends to be contesting the next TWO elections to a devolved Scottish Parliament, clearly signalling he doesn’t think there’s any hope of indy before then.)
So why should we be terrified of an outcome that will supposedly put us 22 points in the lead? Why shouldn’t we be doing everything we possibly can to bring that about without letting the SNP waste another half-decade of our time first?
(A special shout-out to The National’s specialist arithmetic desk there for managing to work out that 61 minus 39 is indeed “over 20”. We hope there was an adult nearby to help them put their socks and shoes back on.)
Yes has NEVER led by anything like 22 points. There have only been three double-digit leads recorded in 130 polls since 2021.
So we need to ask ourselves what’s more important to us – independence, or hand-wringing and pearl-clutching and virtue-signalling aimed at trying to deny England the Reform government it so clearly wants.
We’ve already let Nicola Sturgeon throw away the best chance of leveraging a victory for Farage – the Brexit vote of 2016 – into independence for Scotland, when her terrified phobia of being seen to co-operate with the Tories on anything led her into the misguided and undemocratic attempt to reverse Brexit for the whole UK, rather than weaponising it to Scotland’s advantage.
Let’s not make the same mistake twice. Let’s celebrate every growth in Reform support anywhere in the UK, let’s get the useless elephant corpse of Swinney’s SNP off our backs as soon as possible to give us the maximum amount of time to build something new that can do the job, and get ready to make Nigel an offer he can’t refuse.
Because if Reform are going to win in the UK some time between now and mid-2029, we simply cannot afford to waste the next five years like we’ve wasted the last 11. The SNP are now 20 points less popular than independence is.
Already 40% of indy supporters refuse to vote for them, and after another term of their useless governance that number will only get higher and the roadblock of their toxic unpopularity even bigger.
They are the ball and chain around our ankle. They are yesterday and we need to look to tomorrow, starting now.
Hard to believe that once upon a time the SNP were a means to an end and it was just accepted that after independence they’d disband and the members go wherever.
Seems such a long time ago now.
David Beveridge says:
31 December, 2025 at 11:51 am
“Hard to believe that once upon a time the SNP were a means to an end”
======
It still is.
But the “end” is no longer to end of the union. it is to maximise income for elected Parliamentarians and various SNP hangers-on
Do you know of any party that disbanded itself after independence, David? Even if the SNP lose eventually, they will remain as part of the political establishment. Recall reading an autobiography by one of the early independence parties in Ireland. He felt betrayed by the Irish independence parties. Realism would suggest that every party, whatever its inclinations, wants to hold on to power and privilege, and, nowadays, there is an entourage of ‘workers’ in the parliament who will fight tooth and nail to hang on to their jobs. They are all, politicians and their party workers, a millstone round our neck, but that is how it is. We need to circumvent them to get to independence and try to keep them at arm’s length thereafter, but I wouldn’t go holding my breath on the latter, as they are self-perpetuating – always.
“ But while the motivation of those in the independence industry – who need it to never happen in order to keep making a living out of it, and whose main imperative is always to kick it a few more years down the road and keep people chasing the carrot “
I’ve said for years now that Scotland will never be independent as long as there are people making money out of the quest for independence – the MPs the MSPs, the pundits, the poets, the SPADs, the office staff, the councillors, the authors, the filmmakers, the musicians, the singers, the Indy march movements, the grifting “business/ believe” campaign groups who only like donations of folding money.
Scottish independence is one massive grifting industry which will collapse if Scotland becomes ever independent.
Aside from that, I dread to think what would become of Scotland if we ever got independence under the incompetence of the SNP -it doesn’t bear thinking about.
Which is why I can’t vote SNP while it has the present leadership. The thought of that lot having the powers of an independent country makes my blood run cold.
Yes Heather, there is a lot of people who claim to be Indy supporters promoting misinformation about the state of the SNP and Independence and using Indy to make a living out of us including The National.
“…I dread to think what would become of Scotland if we ever got independence under the incompetence of the SNP…”
This is an error in inductive reasoning called the Retrospective Determinism fallacy.
Retrospective Determinism is a fallacy often rolled out by unionists (it’s good to know about these wee tricks) – although in your case I believe it’s used innocently and not as an attempt at making some anti-independence point.
It’s a common thought form among many folk (understandably) unionists and independence supporters alike.
It’s more likely, however, that independence will be achieved without any assistance at all from the SNP… which will have been relegated to the sidelines – a spectator (if that) and not a player – at the time Scotland gains independence.
The Scottish National Party is finished… it knows it, we know it, and Westminster knows it, tae.
Actually, I wouldn’t be surprised if Westminster isn’t already planning on how to dump the SNP in a dirty ditch in some Scottish political backwater… and then walk away – maybe with an imperial swagger and flickin’ a hauf smoked imperial fag intae the ditch anaw – leaving the battered remains of the SNP to die alone wallowing in its ain thoroughly deserved misery.
Too harsh? I don’t think so.
I read the headline this morning and thought the very same thing, but less eloquently than you Stu. The independance movement needs someone to get behind and they need it soon, as plans need working on now. NF will be the UKs next PM and Swinney is watching on with his thumb up his arse, enjoying securing his long term future employment and subsequent healthy pension. I’ve said it before , yourself and Robin are the very people we need to be delivering Scotland independence.
When it comes to Scottish independence I’m drawn to the old Indian story about ten men and an elephant.
Another thing that has always puzzled me is the ranting about ‘a nation once again ‘. If we were it must have been pretty shit.
All the best for 2026. Lang may your lum reek.
@RevStu I was pretty skeptical about your suggestion to make an offer of an independence referendum on terms where the counterfactual is the abolition of the Scottish Parliament. However, I do wonder if the parliamentary arithmetic supported it, how the SNP would take the offer of a confidence and supply arrangement at Westminster with Reform in exchange for a new independence referendum.
Hard to imagine any scenario where the Tories wouldn’t offer the same level of assistance for far less onerous terms, though.
Besides, can you imagine how such a plan would go down with what’s left of the SNP’s supporters, who are very much left of centre.
It’s possible the conservatives offer better terms, but equally I can see a world where they see being a junior coalition party as the road to ruin and decide they’re better off as an opposition party.
Secondly, in a sense here is the beauty of it because it calls the SNP on whether they are a genuinely independence first party or really a party of devolution. So simplistically there could be three outcomes;
a) The SNP says no to the only opportunity to hold another referendum, SNP is recognised as no longer being an Indy party and is damaged/destroyed;
b) The SNP says yes, the referendum is held and won in which case the SNP ceases to have any purpose; or
c) The SN says yes, the referendum is lost which pretty much kills the cause and the SNP is heavily punished by their voters for voting with reform.
If anyone gets a chance to question John Swinney soon, perhaps ask him about this.
“The independence movement needs someone to get behind..”.
We need the activists of 2014 embodied as the necessary parliamentary mechanism. We don’t want the current party politicians to get in as MSPs yet again because, as the Rev has clearly pointed out for many years, their interests are not our interests.
Some of those 2014 activists ARE getting organised to form a real independence presence in Holyrood. They DO aim to combine all the broad church of pro-independence groups and parties, and to organise the most efficient voting strategy i.e. not waste the list votes. This umbrella group is Liberate Scotland.
It only needs the same attitude as there was in 2014 i.e. everyone and anyone willing to co-operate behind the single cause.
What is stopping the Alba Party from joining this co-operative electoral pact, for example?
A Holyrood election shows the views of Scottish voters. It doesn’t matter that Holyrood is a creation of Westminster. The fact that it demonstrates the preferences of Scottish voters is what counts. It can be used as the democratic justification for progressing independence, acceptable to the international community as well as to the Scots.
Hi Sarah
Aye it would be great if ALL of the REAL independence politicos would get together and try and present a unified message to the electorate for the upcoming 2026 Holyrood election.
I appreciate that none of us are as youung as we used to be, but might it be possible for you to make it along to one of the upcoming YesUnited meetings?
“Saturday 7th February 2026, Yes United will hold our 3rd National meeting in a very special venue, the Cultarlann Inbhir Nis which is the new, community owned, Gaelic Cultural Centre in Inverness. More details will follow soon, but we are delighted to tell you that Andy Wightman will be our keynote speaker.”
and
“on Saturday 14th March 2026, Yes United are joining forces with the IFS (Independence Forum Scotland) to bring you a very special Spring Conference. The venue will be an iconic location in Glasgow, and what’s planned will come in two parts. During the day, there’ll be a Convention-style meeting, with notable speakers, and discussions in World Cafe format on three key topics. In the evening, there’ll be a social event, with high-profile musicians performing, that will catch the imagination of younger people and older people alike.
😉
Hi, aLurker: the Inverness event on 7th February is a possibility for me. Though as you suspect, I’m no Spring chicken, so I’ll have to see!
Andy Wightman ‘the keynote speaker’??? FFS the ba’s burst afore it even touches the slates!!!
If I had been one of these Westminster MP’s who lost their jobs last year. I certainly wouldn’t be happy with his comments considering Swinney was directly to blame for the loss of the majority of the Westminster MP’s, when all Swinney was really bothered about was getting Keir Starmer election to appease the Labour party in Scotland.
If John Swinney goes into the Holyrood election standing on a ticket of saving the Union from reform, he might have just saved me from having to vote for reform to stop the SNP.
He’s no intention of making any effort to delivery Independence, he’s being open and honest about what he wants, so I have to ask why would you vote for the SNP never mind leave them anything in your will.
This will all happen in 2031 it’ll be the same actors play the same play, then it’ll be 2036 and the same again.
My opinion is if the SNP goes into Holyrood fighting reform at the doors they’ll lose. When they should be fight to remove Scotland from the Union. If the Opinion polls are correct and the majority want Independence then why would you through that option of a 50%+ lead away, its simple John isn’t bothered about Independence and he isn’t bothered about the SNP MSP either but for some reason he is bothered about the Labour party.
A curious side question but still related to voting,
Can the Snp stand Candidates for election south of the border, but just do not do it, or are they restricted to Scotland and Scotland devolved governance control borders?
Never hear of them in England, only once the elections are by with in Scotland, and then they migrate to the parliament of England,
But then again political parties registered down south stand up here,
There is nothing to stop the SNP standing for election in England. In fact, I myself am considering standing as an Independent SNP candidate in Kensington in the next general election.
Also on the plus side, Reform are the only major party opposed to damaging and oppressive woke policies such as mass immigration, EDI, and gender ideology, which is the main reason folk are voting for them in droves.
Alf Baird says:
“Reform are the only major party opposed to……..”
———————————————————
By no stretch of the imagination – (apart from polls which in England are years away), is Reform a major party.
They currently have 5 MPs and 1 MSP.
I think you’re being a tad complacent: recent opinion polls seem to suggest that a sea change is coming. From memory Mr Farage was once attracted to the idea of PR for elections when he thought it would benefit UKIP/Reform to break through.
Now however he and his party seem intensely relaxed at the idea of benefitting from the UK’s ridiculous FPTP voting system, as it could well propel him if not into Downing Street, at least into the position of being the largest party.
It’s not really going to help us in Scotland if they fail to make as big a breakthrough due to the D’Hondt system used for Holyrood: they’re still likely to pick up some seats given their polling figures here: they’re wiping the Scottish Tories out in many areas.
As Rev Stu says, the issue may be what will the SNP do if they are still in government at Holyrood post #HR2026 General Election, but are faced with a Reform government in Westminster and/or a bloc of Reform MSP’s in Holyrood.
The experience of brexit isn’t encouraging: the devolusionists in the SNP would rather sabotage independence than do a deal with Reform. A “real” nationalist party would be prepared to do it, as real nationalists in Ireland were prepared to compromise with the British nationalists to get most of what they wanted rather than aim for everything and get nothing.
Alf reform have been back pedaling on their policies e.g. their opposition to the gender woo woo , the immigration policies , NOW stating that they actually mean they will be acting on ILLEGAL immigration NOT legal immigration which they approve of , which will be a vast disappointment for their voters but confirmation that they are just another bunch of con men using words to LIE
While I agree that the present SNP are not going to achieve independence, ironically the rise in Reform is only going to make the support for the SNP grow. I’m a perfect example of that. I left the SNP years ago. I swore I would never vote for them again, until they moved back to the fight of the Salmond era. However, I am far more concerned about Reform getting power in Scotland. So in May I will hold my nose and give the SNP my constituency vote, and hopefully Alba will stand a list candidate here.
Farage and Reform are horrific. Look what a disaster Brexit has been. The one Nigel told us would save the UK. Anyone who believes that snake oil salesman is an idiot. Of course, there’s no shortage of them, even here in Scotland.
As usual most folk are missing the point, and the reasons why reform seem to be doing so well and still growing.
Reform are the protest vote against the incumbents who are all detested for their grifting and incompetence.
Plus they seem to be the only party that is actually saying they will deal with the main issue folk are really wanting dealt with rather than what the parties say we should be wanting.
Whether they can or will do anything about any of them is irrelevant, what most folk want is to cast a fuck you vote against the main parties, including the SNP
“Reform are the protest vote against the incumbents”
True, but far more importantly, that makes Reform the last throw of the democratic dice.
If they are denied power by an establishment stitch-up, or they gain power but then don’t deliver on what they have promised, then it’s game over for democracy.
What comes after won’t be elected at the ballot box, because it and us will know damn well there’s no point.
Another very good article and one which is on point, but I think there is at least one more twist in the tale to come. We must keep in mind that, far from being an anti-establishment man, Farage is controlled opposition, a populist grifter who was elevated from the single-issue fringes only when the BNP started to gain traction (50+ councillors and 2 MEPs) around 2006-09. He was the pressure valve to prevent a nastier uprising in England and, when push comes to shove, has neither the ability nor even the desire to be PM. There’s a chance he could manufacture a way out prior to the election, such as an internal dispute in Reform leading to his resignation. What then? A hung parliament may be more likely than a Reform government, with the latter settling for coalition and thus a token continuation of the Lib-Lab-Con elite status quo.
Whatever happens, I think the independence movement has to be wary of relying on outside forces to aid us in boosting support. This passive approach didn’t see a surge when Cameron got a majority in 2015, nor Brexit, hell not even a Boris Johnson premiership or the incompetence of May and co.
reform smashing it in these northern constituencies
link to youtube.com
Has OberGrueppenFuehrer Nigel von Farage made any statement about the Bondo-Caust?
– walks in, puffs on cigar, sits down …
“… the way I see it, and a lot of decent ordinary people agree with me … if it takes 2 hours to cremate a body in a modern crematorium … during a war with 3 mighty empires … and a chronic labour shortage … and you STILL HAVE TO CRUSH THE BONES … that’s all I’m saying … ”
NF will likely be next PM (unless the jewish lobby destroy him, like Corbyn). He is no friend of ours and there is no scenario where his regime gets us closer to indy.
He is the purest modern equivalent of the little englander the world has seen, an avatar of the anglo group mind. The other yoon politicos at least pretend that UK/Britain is something more than “Super England”.
What he has planned for Scotland is a combination of Thatcher’s Year Zero, the Rough Wooing, Cromwell and Cumberland post Culloden; make no mistake, England is a poor country, absolutely fucked up for all manner of reasons, its going down (they admit this among themselves) … but all the assets of Scotland will be looted to keep the debt collectors at bay.
the whole country is a museum
link to archive.ph
islam, the scourge of God comes to punish England for its crimes
link to archive.ph
– inshallah
never got over the loss of empire, a mind full of delusions of their own importance that their narcissism won’t let go; they are a monty python skit, pretending they still run the world – and it would be a gigantic joke, but we are on the hook for it
C’moan Confused. Still 9 hours to go.
Save some for the bells.
A Reform government is going to collapse due to party difficulties and civil service intransigence. It will also face left and Islamic actions. Scotland will not be immune.
Unfortunately, there are few MSPs capable of steering Scotland towards independence, and no signs of a grassroots resurgence.
It’s 2026 tomorrow, and we can hope for a good year and a Wallace to stand up; but I know people stockpiling food, ammunition, power banks and generators… There is more going on in the countryside than the Women’s Institute debating the lady penis.
Everyone who cheered Sturgeon on – welcome to the promised land.
Had a feeling since 2014 and after the Sturgeon`s Brexit capitulation,(i was outside Bute House expecting a call to war that day)
that our best,not the only,hope for independence was an English referendum for their independence,
some polls say high 40 % for,
if Farage can get them to opt out of EU he could get them independence.
Just need him to realise that a promise for a referendum on English independence would be a massive stick to wield at the next election.
Does he need it ?
If he doesn`t offer it another party might , so why not.
MEGA Make England Great Again, he would love that on his billboards.
Scotland is to England and Farage what Alaska is to the USA and Trump. Similarly, both territories were ‘procured’ by their respective ‘administrative Power’.
Coincidentally, Alaska has also been looking into NSGT status at the UN, as are Guam, Hawaii and Puerto Rico; ditto Liberation Scotland’s UN efforts to ‘List’ Scotland for decolonization (i.e. independence).
Well a pollster reported in The Times today seems to think Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish independence is a certainty with the rise of Reform.
I think he’s talking nonsense.
It’s not just the finery they’re preserving. When the edifice collapses, all the skeletons come out the cupboards. The British establishment no doubt knows where they’re kept. So the SNP and greens are more than happy with unionists voting for them.
Does anyone have confidence in the calibre of Scottish politicians to run a menage let alone a nation in the event of a vote for independence? Nah – me neither, that’s why Scots won’t vote for independence.
You’d put off restoring Scotland as a country just because of the current batch of MSPs?
You’ll never get a better batch of politicians WITHOUT independence because nothing will change. The only way to improve things is to get out of the “Union”.
Can you explain why leaving the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland will improve the calibre of our politicians?
There is no ‘United Kingdom’, its a myth. Scotland was annexed by England and the English crown rebranded as ‘UK’.
Indeed.
@ Alan Scott.
You’re living in southern England so which set of muppets do you mean when you say ‘our politicians’?
All Alan’s contempt is aimed at Scotland, England or what he calls ‘GB & NI’ gets a pass presumably because that is his country. Scotland isn’t his country. Scotland regaining its freedom threatens his ‘country’. Scotland’s politicians are useless and a justification as to why Scotland should not exist as a nation whereas England’s politicians(The bosses of the Scottish ones, their direct line management) just need to be changed and all will be well with his country. Until they fail as well.
That National poll looks like a lot of nonsense to me. When the evil Toaries are in power some polls give the Nationalists 2 or 3 percentage lead sometimes. When the evil Nigel is in power it soars to 22%. I can see why the Reverend might like it but it seems more like straw clutching than pearl clutching.
I speak as an ex Tory now Reform living in the southern part of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland who welcomes all Reform votes.
One last dig at the SNP before the bells ring in the new year.
The desire of the Scots for Scottish independence has been demonstrated again and again and again; over and over and over; mandate after mandate after mandate… and their directive has been ignored by those ‘elite’ who were gifted the power by the Scots to carry out their instruction.
The SNP hasn’t moved the width of an atom in the direction asked of them by the people of Scotland – and it never will… the SNP is now Westminster’s creature and has been for some time; a creature charged with keeping the Scots in suspended animation, forever locked into a dream of next year, or the next year, or the year after… that will be the year.
Holyrood cannot help the Scots (not yet, anyway); that’s where Westminster’s creatures live.
If the Scots are punters in a Casino called Holyrood, then Westminster is the gangster who owns and runs it – and the house always wins… even when it looks like it isn’t.
And on that cheery note…
Oh, an dinnae forget tae open yer back-door tae let the auld year oot an yer fore-door tae let the new year in efter the ringin’ o the bells herald the birth o anither year.
When has Scotland given mandate after mandate for independence?
There was one referendum and it was naw.
Voting for the SNP because they were the least worse option on the table is not directly a vote for independence, more desperation there is no decent partly left to vote for.
Even if the vote in the years since Salmond was in a new referendum I don’t think it would have a snowball’s chance in hell succeeding, for the moment that ship has sailed until and if we get politicians that folk could believe could actually run the country. I think that this may be some time away by the state of things just now
.
Oh Stuart Campbell,
I just love the forensic analysis and fact-rich way in which you write.
Your logic unassailable. The SNP is definitely NOT interested in INDEPENDENCE. The SNP politicians, MPs, MSPs, Cooncil klingons and their ilk of gravy-train grifters are only interested in their own expenses fleeced from the long suffering taxpayer.
Only one problem? James Kelly has just wet his pants at the prospect of manufacturing a bit more grift money by trying to pick a fight with you and your VERY BIG CIRCULATION website, in the hope that some Wings readers’ will donate to his Jimmy Riddle TINY WEENER website… and wet pant Jimmy’s questionable crowdfunders.
Jimmy-The-Holiday-Grifter is desperate to label Wings Over Scotland as “Pro Farage.”
Either the midden-dwelling grifter at Scot-Plop is too thick to understand the facts in this WoS article, (Farage will make Independence a certainty), or more likely, wee Jimmy Kelly is MANUFACTURING a fight with Wings Over Scotland in the hope he can groom WoS readers into donating money to Jimmy’s bank account for another opinion poll (on his way to Spain via Holyrood).
Jimmy, I know you read this page and it is a fact you have been STUCK at £891 at your final ever fundraiser: link to archive.ph
How about I send you a cheque for £1,109 to get you up to £2,000 on one condition?
You stop, polluting the internet with your faux outrage at Stuart Campbell’s impeccable, fact-based research and fluck off Jimmy. Away and get a proper job.
In fact I’d be happy to include a ONE WAY ticket to fly yersel’ tae Spain, ne’er to darken oor doors again with yer financial bin fire of a weblog.
The National? Is that still in print? Who buys that pi$h FFS?
And a guid New Year tae ane an aa.
The BBC publishing the Scottish Newspapers front pages does not have the Nationals, strange every time the National has strong Indy themed article the BBC omit it, strange that ?