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Convergence keeps converging

Posted on February 23, 2014 by

(An update on this post.)

polls23feb

If the next Ipsos MORI poll shows a significant drop in the No lead, we can probably call that definitive. The days of the No camp being 30+ points ahead seem to be well and truly over. Five out of the seven British Polling Council members polling on the independence referendum now put the required swing for Yes at just 5-6%. Looks like Wings pollsters Panelbase were at the cutting edge again after all.

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    150 to “Convergence keeps converging”

    1. Stuart Black says:

      Kudos, Rev Stu, Wings is at the cutting edge of everything!
      😉

    2. Braco says:

      Sorry everyone. Off topic.
      I am just putting out a request in the hope that someone, anyone, reading Wings might be looking to employ a hardworking, trustworthy ex cyberNat. I have come home from Lisbon last month in order to campaign, full tilt, for a Yes vote. The plan was to sign on initially, get settled into campaigning and pick up a part time or temporary minimum wage type job as soon as settled.

      Unfortunately the rules were changed this Jan and now, as a returning Scot, I do not qualify for any assistance for at least three months. So now I am desperately searching for any job at all, in order to stay.

      I am willing and able to travel and live anywhere (as all votes count no matter where from). Part time, full time, temporary, permanent, minimum wage… anything that would allow me to stay for at least those three months and so guarantee being able to campaign till the very end (and get to vote)!

      I have been running my own architectural business in Lisbon for the last nine years as well as teaching English, so I am very flexible, willing and able to turn my hand to anything at all. I am being told I am over qualified for the jobs I am hunting and the political explanations for my motivations are met with disbelief (and unfortunately mistrust), so I thought if anyone understands, it will be Wingers.

      So if anybody out there has, or knows someone who has, a position available for a super keen, instantly available and flexible hard working Yes campaigner then please email me at braco [at] hush [dot] com

      Thanks Rev for allowing this off topic plea and for everyone else’s forbearance.

    3. Murray McCallum says:

      Campaign manager Blair McDougall has totally outfoxed his naive Yes counterpart, Jenkins.

      Stunning effort by McDougall to shift the polls to equilibrium as summer approaches.

    4. ronald alexander mcdonald says:

      MEMO FROM JOHANN LAMONT TO DAVID CAMERON

      Dear Boss

      Can you please help? Oor master plan tae frighten the peepil o Scotland by tellin them they caannae have the pound isnae workin.

      Yon bloody polls as showin mair folk supporting Independence over rule by Engerland. I’ve now got a huge problem. I’ve got tae stand up next month and talk aboot mair devolution! I was hopin it wouldnae be an issue and i would geat away wi talkin my usual patronising pish.
      I’ve asked Ed fur help and he said don’t worry just go away and eat a nice piece of cheese. Well i’ve tried every bloody type o cheese and it hasnae worked.

      Any ideas?

    5. King of Dál Riata says:

      From a business perspective you would view this convergence as a market opportunity developing.
      It’ll soon be time to get the Post-it notes out for some blue sky thinking and SWAT analysis.
      It’s all looking good people! Keep up the great work.

    6. Geoff Huijer says:

      I was under the impression that because of
      Westminster weighting these polls were always
      behind the curve anyway.

      Does this mean YES are likely to be in the lead?

    7. HandandShrimp says:

      I think Better Together must know that the polls are tightening because they started making “this isn’t in the bag” and “it will be closer than people think” noises a couple of months ago. We are on the right track, we have the boots on the ground to conduct a summer of positive campaigning. The last three months will put a muzzle on the BBC and STV from presenting a biased spin on every story and the SNP will open their war chest and adverts and billboards will appear.

      That gap is bridgeable and we can do this 🙂

    8. mogabee says:

      Excellent stuff. Good to see that The Bruce is still on our side. 🙂

    9. Chris k says:

      If panelbase have always been correct then does that mean the real vote has hardly moved? Just the other co’s getting methods correct

    10. Tattie-bogle says:

      next weeks wee visit should get it swinging towards yes

    11. Wayne says:

      Laughable however that a certain newspaper manages to report the latest ICM poll as bad news for YES. Clutching at straws and then some!

      We can be fairly sure that we are probably at worst marginally behind but with many months to go and the momentum in our favour BT must be extremely concerned. The three-pronged attack conceived by Darling hasn’t worked. Their only chance now is a signed multi-party agreement on specific proposals for further devolution on an agreed time frame. This of course will never happen as English MPSs in all the three main westminster parties are opposed to any such thing.

      Continue with Project Fear and hope for a miracle? Sounds about the only choice for BT right now. When UKIP perform well in the Euro’s this will tilt more people in our favour, and this is before a successful commonwealth games and so on which will undoubtedly swing things in our favour even more. Of course there is the massive advertising campaign which is due to kick in shortly. I nearly wet myself when Newsnight had the two political editors of Daily Record and The Scottish Sun on (typical BBC balance!) and one tried to pretend that BT had suspected that there would be a short term loss on the currency but that this would work back in their favour over the long-term. What a pile of bollocks!!

      I can’t honestly think of one Ace that BT might be holding back. Salmond however holds quite a few. I imagine YES would have been happy with the polls the way they are with a few weeks to go, never mind just under 7 months to go. Things are well within the margin of error.

      Just as a pure aside, if we took the raw data from all of the opinion polls from the last six months on the YES/NO question and did not weight them in any way, how would the results look on a rolling cumulative basis? It is the different weighting techniques (i realise also sometimes the question can be framed differently by respective pollsters) which make polls hard to compare.

      Is there not a case for pollsters not including don’t knows, so only reporting as the headline result all those who intend to vote and indicate a choice of YES/NO? There is no third option on the ballot paper. It is either yes, no, or don’t vote at all. I suspect if pollsters begin to do this the results will be in our favour even more, and that is before we factor in the working class vote (how often do they appear in surveys?), or the likelihood of electors to actually turn up and vote. The time is coming for people to choose, don’t know is not an option.

    12. heedtracker says:

      Lord Snooty No.1 with pledge signing Con/Dem’s in ABZ tomorrow explaining that it’s their oil and you silly scotch are too wee too poor too stupid to run it all… That’ll do it.

    13. Gallowglass says:

      The survation one sticks out as anomalous in comparison to the others at a quick glance; it will be interesting to see these in a few months.

      I wonder what the establishment have lined up next.

      Ooooh the titillation.

    14. Albalha says:

      Another Sun story saying that ‘a cabinet minister’, will be flown to Aberdeen by the RAF. Keep it coming chaps, jolly good show, Pimms all round.

    15. heedtracker says:

      Also here’s to England winning the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Shouldn’t laugh but the World Cup is going to be absolute torture for the BetterTogether office and let alone all the Scottish hacks.

    16. Papadox says:

      HandandShrimp says:

      Don’t put your money on BBC & STV being muzzled for the last three months of the campaign!

      The glorious state is under threat and all the power of the state will be deployed to protect it, and I do mean there will be no holds bard.

      I have said many times before watch yer feet on the lobby gas ECK.

    17. ronnie anderson says:

      Rev, Alistair Carmichiel gave a interview on Sky Tv a little while ago, from Bath,have you anything to tell us
      like did you provide the Teacakes.LOL

    18. Robert Louis says:

      The UK cabinet coming to Scotland, obviously keen to show they really, really care about Scotland. That’ll be why its the first time they have done so since 19 feckin 21.

      Honestly, what a cynical, shallow, conniving, bunch of utter shysters.

    19. caz-m says:

      These polls that come out have got to be fixed. There is no way that the NO vote increased and the YES vote didn’t move over the last couple of weeks. It’s just impossible.

      Is it coincidence that the ICM poll comes out showing an increase in the NO vote the day before David Cameron is due to preach to the unclean.

      The increase in the YES vote is there for all to see, there have been far more people come out in favour of YES in nearly every website out there since the turn of the year.

      Yet the polls are showing the complete opposite.

      Sky News even ran with a full screen graphic a moment ago showing the ICM poll and telling viewers that voters are actually deserting YES and going back to NO.

      We need to start getting poll results showing true figures from unbiased sources.

    20. Roger Mexico says:

      Geoff Huijer says:

      I was under the impression that because of
      Westminster weighting these polls were always
      behind the curve anyway.

      Does this mean YES are likely to be in the lead?

      No, as far as I’m aware all those pollsters who do weight politically now weight the Referendum by Holyrood 2011 constituency vote, including YouGov, and have done for a while (except for the first but not the second Survation poll). So any difference between the two weightings is already accounted for.

      Whether this is the right decision is another matter – to some extent it depends on how they then handle the 2011 non-voters (50%).

    21. Robert Louis says:

      Papadox,

      I have to agree, it is patently clear that the BBC has zero intention of doing anything but propagandising against the restoration of Scottish independence. It is also clear, that they do not think any rules on impartiality apply to them.

      I fully expect that the night before the vote, all rules will be broken, and we will have a one-sided LIVE appeal to save the UK, together with lies about jam tomorrow. Just like Alec Douglas Home did on the eve of the devolution vote in 1979, courtesy of those helpful chaps at BBC pravda.

    22. Murray McCallum says:

      I see George Osborne is off to Singapore to learn about the Singapore dollar and the Brunei Currency and Monetary Board.

      Good for him to research a plan B.

    23. heedtracker says:

      “The BBC therefore argues that “there is no evidence whatsoever” to justify the study’s conclusion that its coverage had damaged the Yes campaign.” http://archive.is/P6eLO

      The empire strikes back in vote No Guardian. BBC in Scotland is accountable to noone so all they have to do is state you are all wrong and vote NO.

    24. hetty says:

      O/T

      Ridiculous article on bbc online titled, (hidden in the section called, magazine’) ‘Should the English have a say on Scottish Independence?’ I read down to the bit where the writer, Roger Sruton,( er also a philosopher supposedly) says, literally, “the Scottish economy is subsidised by the English”.

      The utter ignorance throughout the whole article is actually quite shocking, and of course many folk do actually think this way, especially in England. There is no room for complacency with 7 months to go the bt lot are desperate enough to do whatever it takes to secure either a no vote, or they will hijack the actual process, somehow…they know they are being watched and scrutinised, so it will come out of the blue. Just a thought, it is not won yet, sorry for the gloomy post here!

    25. heedtracker says:

      @ hetty, check BBC in Scotland’s grinching at the Guardian just now and they state “The BBC therefore argues that “there is no evidence whatsoever” to justify the study’s conclusion that its coverage had damaged the Yes campaign.”

      Not bad eh? “We’ve done every single thing we can possibly think of to destroy democracy in Scotland for the last 10 years and for the foreseeable future. But it hasn’t worked. So we didn’t do it.”

    26. hetty says:

      With reference to the above post re the bbc online, there are 1513 comments. The writer/philosopher (!) writing it says he would vote for ‘English’ Independence. Jeez.

    27. ronald alexander mcdonald says:

      The referendum will be won in the last three months, not now.

      All what’s happening is BT are making themselves look more ridiculous, almost on a daily basis. That won’t win the referendum, but it will make people more attracted to the YES campaign when various revelations are issued in the forthcoming months.

      The polls will move big time in the last 6-8 weeks.

    28. bjsalba says:

      Bet they won’t tell us exactly where they are meeting until it is too late to get there before they’ve scarpered back to London.

    29. john mclean says:

      hetty says:
      23 February, 2014 at 3:14 pm

      O/T

      Ridiculous article on bbc online titled, (hidden in the section called, magazine’) ‘Should the English have a say on Scottish Independence?’ I read down to the bit where the writer, Roger Sruton,( er also a philosopher supposedly) says, literally, “the Scottish economy is subsidised by the English”.

      The utter ignorance throughout the whole article is actually quite shocking, and of course many folk do actually think this way, especially in England. There is no room for complacency with 7 months to go the bt lot are desperate enough to do whatever it takes to secure either a no vote, or they will hijack the actual process, somehow…they know they are being watched and scrutinised, so it will come out of the blue. Just a thought, it is not won yet, sorry for the gloomy post here!

      this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26173128

    30. HandandShrimp says:

      Hetty

      Not gloomy, a sensible conclusion. We can’t afford to rest for a minute and need to ensure every lie and every trick is exposed.

      We have people in all walks of life in Scotland there is no hiding place for even the largely invisible Project Fear mob.

    31. Roger Mexico says:

      Looks like Wings pollsters Panelbase were at the cutting edge again after all.

      Um, you do realise that opinions polls try to assess how people think at the moment. So if your poll is showing how people will think in a month’s time, then you’re doing it wrong. Though if you do consider Panelbase to be the predictor of the way that things are going, given that in their last poll Yes went down a point and No up two…

      (Of course such movement is almost certainly the random variation that polls have. But you did raise the issue).

    32. Calgacus MacAndrews says:

      @Tattie-bogle says:
      next weeks wee visit should get it swinging towards yes

      YES, only the third time in history that the UK cabinet has met in Scotland (1921, 2009, Feb 2014).

      The story in 1921 was:
      “Lloyd George was on holiday at Gairloch in Wester Ross when he learned that Ireland had rejected the King and Empire. He decided to call the cabinet at Inverness, rather than travel back to London, as his deputy was at Beaufort and King George V at Moy.”

      The story in 2009 was:
      Jim Murphy suggests to Gordy it would be a good plan to hold the Cabinet Meeting (to discuss Gordy’s economic crisis) somewhere that far away from the centre-of-the-financial-universe that is London.

      The story in 2014 is:
      You know the story.

    33. muttley79 says:

      @Braco

      All the best lad. Hope you get things sorted out. Good luck.

    34. Murray McCallum says:

      Brunei has less than 1/10th the population of Singapore and uses a currency board to match the Singapore dollar. It is a very successful developed economy.

      I wonder what George Osborne can learn for this region of the world?

      “Brunei regained its independence from the United Kingdom on 1 January 1984. Economic growth during the 1970s and 1990s, averaging 56% from 1999 to 2008, has transformed Brunei into a newly industrialised country.

      According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Brunei is ranked fifth in the world by gross domestic product per capita at purchasing power parity.”

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunei

      “On 27 June 2007, Singapore and Brunei celebrated the 40th anniversary of the Currency Interchangeability Agreement (since 12 June 1967) with the joint-issue of the commemorative $20 notes”

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brunei_Currency_and_Monetary_Board

    35. msean says:

      I only watch the news channels for the comedy value,like last night the paper review had a guy who didn’t agree with the bedroom tax and didn’t follow the usual rabid anti indy line.Probably won’t get back on for a while.

    36. cynicalHighlander says:

      Wow I have got the down button back.

    37. cynicalHighlander says:

      Except it doesn’t work.

    38. Andy-B says:

      It appears the tide is turning, in our favour, now that Scots begin to see the truth, I’m sure Rev, your intervention in the debate has played no small part.

      O/T.

      Ed Miliband writes a three quarter page spread, in the Sunday Mail, Miliband really goes to town on nationalists and the SNP claiming if you vote yes, your giving up on social justice.

      In his three quarter page tirade Miliband says the nationalists have been exposed, and are not the progressive beacon they say they are. Miliband then goes on to add I will not change my mind on the currency union, it won’t happen.

      Can’t find this story in the online version, only in the paper version, typical of the Daily Fail.

    39. chicmac says:

      @Wayne
      “When UKIP perform well in the Euro’s this will tilt more people in our favour”

      Hmmm. Not if it looks like they could spoil Tory chances at the GE. And that is how many might interpret it, depending on the result.

      On FPTP folk know that Tory + UKIP support could both greatly increase in overall combined support but leave significantly less Tory + UKIP MPS than the current Tory haul.

      IOW Labour has most to gain from a good UKIP showing in the Euros.

    40. Marcia says:

      Roger Mexico,

      The latest Panelbase poll figures issued today show a slight drop in the No vote and a slight increase of 1% of Yes of those certain to vote.

    41. Andy-B says:

      The BCC (British Chambers of Commerce) telling George Osborne to get his finger out and start investing in young people or lose a whole generation to unemployment. Osborne hasn’t got a clue, another good reason to vote yes.

      http://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/461344/George-Osborne-Lost-generation-needs-Budget-help

    42. Braco says:

      Muttley79,
      Thanks min, much appreciated. Bit of a last throw of the dice though. I am unfortunately running out of time. :@(

    43. Les Wilson says:

      Cameron et al, are coming to tell us once more that we are too wee, to stupid and uniquely incompetent to look after our own resources. Once more Scots will feel insulted, and rightly so. Project Fear once more.

      Their other reason is obvious, they really, really need to keep robbing us in order to keep their own subsidised lifestyles. Do they not realise the game is up, Scots see them for what they are, this visit will mean more YES votes, in other words Scots are giving them the V sign.

      Wake up, go home and stay there and think of how we can work as equals AFTER A YES VOTE.

    44. Andy-B says:

      David Cameron saying that, “The future of North sea oil depends on a strong union with Westminster”. Why?

      http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/23/cameron-union-north-sea-oil

    45. Calgacus MacAndrews says:

      BBC Website now:-
      Should the English have a say on Scottish independence?

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26173128

      Comments are allowed.

      Apologies if anybody has posted this already. Had a quick look, and can’t see a mention.

    46. TJenny says:

      Braco – maybe try dropping an email to Business for Scotland – here’s a link to their contact page.

      http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/contact-us/

      BfS has many buinesses who favour an indy Scotland on their books. One of their spokesmen, Ivan McKee, posts on here sometimes too. they would be favourably placed to advise you on the job vacancy market.

      Also maybe contact YES Scotland, they may have a short term place for you, at least ’til Sept 18. 🙂

      Hope you get a job to suit you soon.

    47. muttley79 says:

      There must be a Yes supporter out there who can help Braco. Keep Braco in Scotland campaign!

    48. Calgacus MacAndrews says:

      Sorry … looks like they have closed it for comments at 14:00.

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-26173128

    49. Andy-B says:

      Here we have Iain Mclean of the Guardian putting the boot in to Scotland, by agreeing with constitutional lawyer Adam Tomkins that Scotland hasn’t got a hope in hell of their independence day being the 24th of March, and their first parliament elected on the 5th of may that year, calling the timetable, risible.

      http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/feb/23/scottish-independence-day-timetable-hasty

    50. patronsaintofcats says:

      Shark jumping anyone?

      [link]http://archive.is/MGfuU[/link]

    51. patronsaintofcats says:

      Sorry, try this http://archive.is/MGfuU

    52. G H Graham says:

      After close scrutiny of the convergence of voter intention trends, Stairheid Rammy Expert, Johann Lamont, alleged leader of North British Labour muses …

      “FFS, how much mair, wull ma bingo dabber pens cost me if yoos get yer indy-pendance?”

    53. patronsaintofcats says:

      *sigh* HTML fail

      Tory plan to give Scots around the world a say on independence

      Lord drafts independence bill for all ‘tartan’ relations to be consulted, including Hollywood A-listers.

      Plans to canvas Hollywood royalty on Scottish independence have been drafted. It comes days after rock legend David Bowie waded into the referendum debate and gave his backing to the union.

      Now, a Scottish peer has put in train legislation in the House of Lords that if passed would force Scottish Secretary Alistair Carmichael to consult everyone who can trace their ancestry back to Scotland on the future of the country.

    54. heedtracker says:

      @ Braco, check out Aberdeen. Its less than 2% unemployment up here but its expensive to rent though.

    55. muttley79 says:

      Stairheid Lamont(G H Graham), are you looking forward to your debate with Sturgeon this week? Have you got Sinclair’s script yet?

    56. msean says:

      See? Westminster does listen,we asked for more tories and they are sending them.FM on sky right now.

    57. Roger Mexico says:

      Marcia

      Sorry, I should have made it clear I was referring to the last Panelbase one for the Sunday Times (Y 37, N 49). We haven’t seen the tables for today’s one for the SNP yet – Y 37, n 47 according to Anthony Wells, who says there’s a slight differences in wording from the ones for the ST series. Even so all the changes do is ‘reduce’ the last poll’s change from November (Y 38, N 47) to a +1 increase for No from +3.

      I put ‘reduce’ in quotes of course because the reality almost certainly one of little movement and we shouldn’t get excited by these small changes in either directions – especially when some pollsters are still refining their methodologies. For example today’s fall in support for Yes in the ICM poll may be due to differences in age-weighting.

    58. scottish_skier says:

      “No, as far as I’m aware all those pollsters who do weight politically now weight the Referendum by Holyrood 2011 constituency vote, including YouGov”.

      Hey RM.

      Yougov have in their weightings ‘Labour in 2010 but SNP 2011″.

      That means they are still weighting to 2010 in a direct way. If people can’t correctly recall 2010 (whether real false recall or lying) how can they be expected to correctly recall voting Labour in 2010 (and SNP in 2011)?

      Unsurprisingly, they don’t get nearly enough respondents and have to up-weight this group massively.

      Should likely favour Labour / No.

      Any thoughts?

    59. bookie from hell says:

      YES, only the third time in history that the UK cabinet has met in Scotland (1921, 2009, Feb 2014).

      Will any Labour groupies be close by?

    60. Taranaich says:

      The convergence is indeed happening. This morning I attended a Yes Scotland ambassador training thingummijig, and the difference in optimism from the already quite optimistic earlier event I attended was palpable. But better than that was meeting all the fellow Yes voters, including several Wings commentators and fans: I had a particularly good talk with Aidan & Gary. Ahoy!

      The meeting was most illuminating in terms of seeing the strength of canvassing, as was the discussion afterwards. A lot of folk from the Radical Independence crowd, and while I wear my SNP affiliation on my sleeve, I’m more than receptive to Radical Indy’s ideas. Definitely hoping that this will be the start of something awesome!

    61. Andy-B says:

      Here we have the Telegraph saying support for independence has stalled and Sir Tom Hunter calling Alex Salmond disingenuous, this piece also covers the Ed Miliband story, in which he sticks the boot into the SNP and nationalists.

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10551676/Ed-Miliband-warns-Scots-no-currency-union-if-I-am-Prime-Minister.html

    62. SquareHaggis says:

      Crowdfund Braco?

      Go to indiegogo and start your own wee campaign, I like to donate to worthy causes such as yours.

    63. Andy-B says:

      The Huffington Post claiming that the no camp are on course to win the referendum.

      http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/02/23/scottish-independence-pol_n_4841050.html?utm_hp_ref=uk&utm_hp_ref=uk

    64. scottish_skier says:

      Has anyone got a link to articles which had Labour on course to win in 2011 big style?

      I recall the rev posted a sun one (I think) but can’t lay my mouse pointer on it.

    65. Braco says:

      T jenny, that’s an idea. Thanks for the link, I will try and contact them.

      Cankers Callan, thanks min will do! Looks helpfull.

      Heedtracker, Aberdeen would be my first choice (studied, lived and campaigned there for 2007) but as you say the housing costs are really the issue. Surviving there without work almost impossible. Bit of a chicken and egg. As I say though, I would happily go anywhere that would allow me to stay and campaign.

      Muttley79, can I have a theme tune please? 8@)

    66. Gaavster says:

      Hi Braco,

      Have a look here and see if there is anything for you…

      http://www.jobserve.com/gb/en/JobSearch.aspx?shid=4DBFF6F0CB58004A

      You might want to check other sites like

      Jobsite

      S1Jobs

      Etc

      Good luck mate

    67. Roger Mexico says:

      scottish_skier

      YouGov don’t have the problem with recall of past vote that the other pollsters have because they asked all their UK panellists how they voted just after the 2010 election. Anyone who joins the panel since is asked on joining (though most panellists were also members in 2010). So they don’t need to ask again – they just get the information from their records.

      They switched to weighting Referendum and Holyrood polls by recalled 2011 Constituency vote in September – Anthony Wells blogged about it here.

      So while they would have had to ask people for their Holyrood vote, they would know how they voted in 2010 anyway.

    68. big_al says:

      Great effort @Braco, hope you get something soon.

    69. Gaavster says:

      Here’s another link for you Braco

      http://www.indeed.co.uk/Architect-jobs-in-Scotland

    70. cynicalHighlander says:

      Aargh now I can’t reload page because I have I already said those two words.

    71. handclapping says:

      We aren’t picking this up. Just in from another canvass, an old estate this time 58% Yes 33% No 8% DK so it looks as if Osballs has shifted the DK and they’ve broken for us

    72. Braco says:

      Square Haggis,
      Yeah, after the Rev so kindly let me advertise on his blog I then go and steal his next (imminent) indiegogo crowdfunding. Like it! Would all depend on split second timing though! ;@)

    73. Andrew Morton says:

      OT. My wife and I had a wee drive down to East Linton for lunch in the Linton Arms (great wee pub BTW). Whilst waiting for the food I looked at a copy of SoS which was on the bar. My God! No wonder I haven’t been buying it recently, it reads like a Better Together propaganda sheet.

      They must be insane at Johnstone Press, no wonder they’re rapidly disappearing down the plug hole.

    74. scottish_skier says:

      So while they would have had to ask people for their Holyrood vote, they would know how they voted in 2010 anyway.

      If they are good for weighting to 2010, why not stick with that? Why introduce a new weighting method based on 2011?

      And why do they need to up-weight heavily those mysterious ‘Labour 2010 and SNP 2011’? They seem to match well on the unweighted base for con lib lab – just SNP they seem to have problems with.

      Just because they asked people right after 2010 is no guarantee they won’t have been told porky pies.

      http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/images/2001graph.jpg

      I am polled by Yougov quite regularly. I only joined in late 2011.

      I told the truth as I didn’t feel maybe shame in wanting to vote SNP in 2010, but did not and voted Labour or Lib. ~10% of voters did do something like that.

    75. scottish_skier says:

      Oh and RM. How come Yougov’s weighted base is too British in natID and doesn’t match the census or SSAS surveys?

    76. Indy_Scot says:

      I think Ladbrokes have also noticed the polls tighten, they have cut the odds on a bet I made only two days ago from 7/1 to 6/1.

    77. Caroline Corfield says:

      While I think that UKIP will do well in the euro elections I don’t put it down to them only getting movement from Tories in this regard. Plenty of traditional Labour voters are wooed by the Daily Mail led policies of UKIP, plenty see Farage as a man of the people, and plenty will vote for his party rather than Milliband in the General Election because plenty will not think Miliband can get elected and will want a counter to the Tories.

      UKIP are trying to position themselves as England’s SNP, and I get the impression they’re managing to do so. It’s easy to think because they have right wing policies they will not appeal to the Labour voters, but the Labour voters down here are used to right wing policies now, all UKIP have to do is make noises about banker bonuses, Eton elites, immigration and British jobs for British people ( Scots need not apply) and they tick a number of boxes for your traditional Labour voter here.

      Add that together with some tough talking on any independence negotiations and voila a Tory/UKIP coalition. Would you trust Labour to negotiate with a country that is full of Labour supporters (allegedly)? There’s only one side making this a ‘them and us’ thing and it’s not us.

    78. Aidan says:

      @Taranaich
      It’s happening. Talking to Stewart on the way back from the training-meeting-thing, both of us agreed that something has changed in where we’re all at and where the country is at. You can feel the groundswell to YES taking place.

      Please believe me when I say that meeting the mighty Taranaich – one of the gods of Wings – was the highlight of my day!

    79. Bill McLean says:

      Skier – what the hell is going on. No signs of any “bounce” and all the stats today are just confusing. Can u throw some light on what it all means please?

    80. Flower of Scotland says:

      O/t
      Been watching wall to wall coverage on BEEB and SKY of crisis in Ukraine . Was watching people wandering about the ” Opulent ” President,s Residence just outside KIEV and thinking that’s a very big country and UK is small . They might like to come and see some REAL OPULENCE at Westminster , Buckingham Palace , Sandringham , Windsor , Holyrood , Balmoral , St James, Palace , Kensington Palace, Clarence House etc etc.
      I know I’m always banging on about it , but we have food banks ! …….WHY and the poor people can’t just go to a food bank , they have to be referred ! It’s ABSOLUTELY DISGUSTING in an oil rich nation .
      So when Cameron brings his cabinet to Aberdeenshire , to tell us that the best way to manage the oil revenues , is to continue letting WM control this , I hope ALEX SALMOND tells him where to his proverbial behind !

    81. Flower of Scotland says:

      Sorry , should have read ” where to put his proverbial behind “

    82. SquareHaggis says:

      @Braco

      I see your point but would quite happily contribute to both causes.

    83. Marcia says:

      S_S

      final look as I must do some cooking!

      http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/3251

    84. G H Graham says:

      In response to Muttley79, Stairheid Rammy Expert, Johann Lamont, retorts with the gravitas one expects of a seasoned captain of industry,

      “Uv no got Sinclair’s notes yet but it duzznay matter cuz I’ll just use yon script fae last week tae scunner Eck wi. Whit part dae ye no unnerstand?”

      {Cue 1,000 yard stare are Presiding Officer.}

    85. ScottyC1314 says:

      O/T Just back from delivering Yes newspaper in Kingseat, my home town, which is where the old hospital used to be for those NE loons and quines. It consists of privately owned houses and expensive apartments which used to be the hospital buildings. There is also some affordable housing but overall there is a sense of wealth here with Audi & BMWs in the drives. This is Alex Salmond’s constituency and we also return an SNP councillor.

      Now, to finally get to my point….the newspaper has Eddie Reader on the front talking about how she is Labour and voting Yes. Fair enough, but I am not sure thats going to cut it here where Labour politicians and supporters are rarer than panda’s babies. I am also not sure whether Nicola Sturgeon, also prominent on front cover, would be as popular in this area as she would be in the central belt or urban areas for example.

      That is not to say the paper doesn’t include content people will be interested in but the front page might be the difference in whether you open or discard. There would of course be an increase in cost to have different covers for different areas but maybe it’s a price worth paying.

      I think Business for Scotland leaflets or something which is focused heavily on oil & gas may be a better option so my intention is to leaflet all the doors again over the next couple of weeks. With this in mind, can anyone share or suggest a leaflet I can print off which would do the job.

    86. Braco says:

      Gaavster, thanks a lot for those links, will look through them carefully.

      Big Al, if only it was effort alone that was needed eh? Thanks for the all the support and help everybody. It’s much appreciated.

    87. TheGreatBaldo says:

      As discussed previously BT usually cannae resist gloating prior to the press embargo being lifted if any poll shows any good news for them…..

      https://twitter.com/Bobbybungalow/status/437639620126208000

      “A little birdy tells me that the nats will have a little difficulty talking about ‘the wind in their sails’ tomorrow”

      I’m guessing as STV usually have a pre Debate poll from IPSOS-Mori it’s them he’s talking about….and either NO has risen or YES has remained static.

    88. scottish_skier says:

      A little birdy.

      If it’s MORI poll it’s worthless.

      Does not match the census nor SSAS demographically – way too British.

    89. Indy_Scot says:

      ScottyC1314, I received that Yes newspaper today. I had a glance throught it and thought it was quite good.

      I not sure if you will know, but is this paper delivered to all houses in Scotland. Thanks.

    90. ScottyC1314 says:

      Indy_Scot….aye, that is the one. As said, it’s maybe fine for a blanket coverage leaflet but could it be tailored for different areas? Worthy of some discussion I would have thought.

    91. TheGreatBaldo says:

      If it’s MORI poll it’s worthless.

      Does not match the census nor SSAS demographically – way too British.

      Sadly we both know that’s not how it will be spun…:-(

      Going on Revs graphic though it would leave Mori alone as the undisputed outlier in indyref polling.

      But that observation will only be mentioned (if at all) in passing after 5 minutes of gloom & doom for YES etc on TV & radio

    92. Dal Riata says:

      @Braco

      Hi there, Braco!

      I, too, will be jobless (though not homeless) in about six weeks time as I will be returning to Scotland from Taiwan to devote myself to the ‘Yes’ cause. I’m giving up a lot here to do it – not least my job! – but the upcoming referendum is truly a once-in-a-lifetime event that we are lucky to be party to. I could never forgive myself if I didn’t do all I could do to see my country become independent. After all, how many of our good countrymen and countrywomen fought and died in their vain attempts to do what we can merely with an ‘X’ inside a box that says ‘Yes’?

      So, I give up my job – big deal. Compared to those who had to give up a lot, lot more my sacrifice is miniscule. I wish to go to bed on the evening of the 17th of September 2014 knowing that I had given all I could to enhance the chance of Scotland gaining its rightful independence and that it was now up to the people of Scotland to, hopefully, do the right thing and vote ‘Yes’.

      Anyway, if you hear of anything workwise, or, indeed, manage to gain some kind of employment (well done if you do) and others are required, be a good fellow-cybernat and please pass on the news to this soon-to-be full-time ‘Yes’ activist, yet unemployed and seeing his meagre savings disappearing fast!

      Whatever,hopefully you and I, and as many other contributors to WoS as possible can meet up someday, somewhere in a post-referendum ‘Yes’ celebration. Here’s tae us aw!

    93. Morag says:

      I not sure if you will know, but is this paper delivered to all houses in Scotland. Thanks.

      Well, as many as possible. I was about 100 short for this area, and as usual it was the farms up the long farm roads that missed out. Some areas can’t manage 100% coverage.

      I have urged our organiser to increase the order for next time (which he has done) and tabulated every dwelling on the voters’ roll, so next time, hopefully, it will be better.

      I doubt if every area will ever manage to get everyone though.

    94. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      Just because I’m paranoid doesn’t mean they are not out to get me but there is something very odd going on.

      I have tried to log into the BBS comments using exactly the same email/password combination I always us – and used recently – only to be told there is some irregularity and either the user name or password is wrong.As I used it last week to register I can’t understand this. I then tried a different identity with a different password (which I have not used on BBC) in the same way. I am told my name password comby is wrong(which it is not). I then tried another user name to be interrupted with a message that I have tried too many times and my access is shut for thirty minutes

    95. scottish_skier says:

      Sadly we both know that’s not how it will be spun

      Yes, but that doesn’t matter. People don’t change their intention based on polls.

      If people did, Labour would have won 2011 with like 70% of the vote.

    96. Indy_Scot says:

      Thanks ScottyC1314 and Morag for the info.

    97. alexicon says:

      @Braco,

      Little tip for you in job hunting here.

      Just google ‘architects in scotland’ and hit everyone of them that comes up in the list with your CV.

      Hope it works and you get fixed up soon.

      Good luck.

    98. alexicon says:

      @Dave McEwan Hill.

      Maybe its your IP address they recognise, not your name etc.

    99. liz says:

      O/T This from newsnet scotland:

      ‘Viviane Reding arrived unannounced in Barcelona today and in a press conference ordered Spain and Catalonia to negociate with no red lines to avoid a breakup which she says is “in noone’s interest” and “a waste of time”. It is an internal matter for a member state.

      Catalonia, she says, is part of Spain and shares the same Constitution. If it separates from Spain, it will be expelled from the EU and have to negotiate reentry.

      La Vanguardia: If the separation is by mutual agreement, like Scotland and London, does that not make negotiation (for re-entry) different?

      Reding: No.’

      According to NNS this contradicts previous statements from her – a hardening of the line?

      If this is true, we need to stop banging our heads against a wall and open up negotiation to join EFTA.

    100. chicmac says:

      No reason why both sets of negotiations shouldn’t take place in parallel.

    101. chicmac says:

      Is the ‘Brucy bonus’ of this weekend’s Scotpulse result going to be added to the graph or is it a case of waiting until there are two results from the STV panel?

    102. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      alexicon at 6.14

      That has occurred to me. !

    103. Thepnr says:

      @handclapping

      When you carry out your canvassing how many people roughly do you get opinion from?

      Do you think there would be any merit in doing our own canvassing? If we had only 10 volunteers knock on 100 doors each asking a single question “Should Scotland be any Independent Country” Unscientific I know, forget weighting but would love to see the result.

      I’d be up for this, think it should all be done on the same day. A Sunday morning in March or April would be good.

    104. Onwards says:

      Regarding the comments about the BBC having to be neutral in the last 3 months..

      All they do is have any Scottish independence articles that can be commented on featured in the entire UK section, rather than the Scotland section alone.

      This can be classed as ‘neutral’ as independence affects the whole UK.

      But inevitably we get swamped with an unbalanced 10-1 ratio of generally pro-unionist opinion that can influence undecided voters here.

      One way to counter this could be for the pro-independence sites to have prominent links sections with daily news stories we can comment on.

      Otherwise we are just talking to the converted.

    105. Paula Rose says:

      @ Thepnr

      I think that’s an interesting idea – something we could all do, be more fun than standing around train stations waiting for folk who don’t appear.

    106. handclapping says:

      100-120 houses = 160-200 peeps. about 1/3 answer
      Did better today it was raining so people stayed home to watch telly and got us instead!

    107. Edward says:

      Liz
      That is indeed strange as Viviane Reding doesn’t mention anything like that on either her twitter https://twitter.com/VivianeRedingEU
      or her EU page http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/reding/multimedia/news/2014/02/20140221_en.htm

      I think it would be a bit ironic if she did come out with a diktat that told the Catalonian’s that they cannot have self determination considering her title is ‘EU Commissioner for Justice, Citizenship and Fundamental Rights’
      According to her web page, she is in Barcelona for a debate, which was not that unexpected I suspect
      Quote “I have known Catalonia for a long time. I know Catalans are ardent Europeans. I am therefore convinced that the debate in Barcelona will be passionate when it comes to the future of our Union but also Catalonia’s future. I am looking forward to this Dialogue with citizens in Barcelona,” said Vice-President Reding ahead of the debate.’

    108. handclapping says:

      And we got wet 🙁 Its the local Yes group organised using a computer called yesmo and we have yes jackets and hats so we look businesslike.

      Have a word with your local Yes group to see when they’re starting. We’ve had a pretty open winter so have been able to start early.

    109. Edward says:

      Some ‘technical notes for you as regards EFTA v EU membership
      In practice one country being in EFTA and its bordering neighbour being in the EU, it does not affect the movement of people. Example being Norway and Sweden. Anyone who has been there or from there can verify it. With the internet you can virtually travel using Google street view.
      All you see is the customs post for the trucks carrying freight.
      Its the freight that has to be processed, but this is now mostly if not all together done electronically, with manifests being pre lodged, there is also a movement by customs authorities to lean towards local import control, so as far as interruption is concerned its negligible.

      So re-capping, if Scotland remains in the EU, it will be absolutely no change what so ever to any transport and travel. If Scotland, somehow leaves the EU and is a member of EFTA, then its the Norway – Sweden scenario, which means no change to travel arrangements and minor/negligible adjustment for transporting cargo (if the Swedes and Norwegians manage, then so can we)

    110. Andrew Morton says:

      In case nobody’s mentioned it there’s a great article about the Radical Independence Campaign’s work in the Glasgow schemes in the Sunday Herald.

      http://archive.is/UvMSx

    111. Roger Mexico says:

      scottish_skier

      If [YouGov] are good for weighting to 2010, why not stick with that? Why introduce a new weighting method based on 2011?

      And why do they need to up-weight heavily those mysterious ‘Labour 2010 and SNP 2011?? They seem to match well on the unweighted base for con lib lab – just SNP they seem to have problems with.

      Probably because people like you kept complaining because they didn’t. 🙂

      I suspect it was partly because everyone else already did and they were worried that the big differences between 2010 and 2011 in voting behaviour might mean they weren’t getting a good sample. Weighting by 2010 didn’t produce very good predictions for Holyrood for anyone.

      The up-weighting of the Lab to SNP switchers probably has the same motivation. When they looked at their samples they probably realised that those who said they voted SNP contained too many ‘core SNP’ and too few 2011 switchers. So they split the group in two and weighted each part separately. Note that the two parts added together match up better (387 weighted to 412). I suspect the Lab to SNP voters may have certain characteristics that make them less likely to be panel members – they may be more likely to be C2DE young men for example, and that would by itself explain a lot of the increase.

    112. Edward says:

      Interesting and latest article in the Sunday Herald reporting that Viviane Reding states that ‘Scotland is nothing like Kososvo’
      She told Barcelona daily La Vanguardia: “Because Kosovo did not leave a country that was a member state of the European Union, it can’t be compared.”
      In her interview Ms Reding made it clear she did not want to see the European Union shed any territory if parts of member states were to go independent.
      Regards Catalonia, she didn’t want to see it leave if it became independent.
      So a bit different to what was earlier reported!
      http://archive.is/9GJHR#selection-1217.1-1217.153

    113. Roger Mexico says:

      scottish_skier

      Just because they asked people right after 2010 is no guarantee they won’t have been told porky pies.

      Well of course not – but that applies to every poll. What YouGov’s method does was to minimise the time between voting and reporting which makes it more likely that people won’t have changed their mind or forgotten or got confused over how they voted in different elections. If you join in 2011 you’re more likely to give the correct answer about how you voted in 2010 than you are if you’re asked in 2014.

      Most people are basically honest and, like you, will say what they actually did. If any fibs are told immediately after voting it will probably be along the lines of people claiming to have voted when they didn’t and saying who they meant to vote for.

    114. Roger Mexico says:

      scottish_skier

      Oh and RM. How come Yougov’s weighted base is too British in natID and doesn’t match the census or SSAS surveys?

      I’m not really sure what you’re referring to here, sorry.

    115. Thepnr says:

      @Paula Rose
      “I think that’s an interesting idea”

      I definitely do too. How about it Rev, any chance of a thread to gauge possible numbers. We could collect all the results together and provide an overall view. My guess is we could get 100 people willing to have a go in their local area, 10,000 opinions would be nice.

      @handandclapping

      Thanks for the answer, are your results combined with other Yes supporters canvassing? I guess they are but kept secret, a WOS canvass would be public knowledge and make a good thread.

    116. Bill C says:

      @Braco – Not sure if your skill set would fit the oil industry but there are heaps of different types of jobs going in the North East. oilcareers.com and rigzone.com might be worth a look. Best of luck.

    117. We must never give in to a false sense of security or complacency.

      let us carry on campaigning as if our lives depended on it and we’re about to face the hangman!

      Solidarity, EVERYBODY!

      Let’s keep hitting the streets!

    118. muttley79 says:

      @Braco

      “Muttley79, can I have a theme tune please? 8@)”

      Since you have been on the move, and might be again soon (getting a job etc), here is a good theme tune for you:

    119. kininvie says:

      O/T

      Text of Reding’s Barcelona remarks:

      http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-14-152_en.htm

      Definitely a hard line on the surface:

      The EC, unsurprisingly, is desperate to avoid a Catalonian UDI – and likely even more desperate to prevent Spain from using force to stop it. Hence it is not going to give an inch by way of encouragement for Catalonian independence.

      Scotland is different. But as I have argued before, it is going to have an equally hard time with the EU unless its independence can be presented as the outcome of an agreed domestic arrangement. To get the UK’s support for that position will take concessions elsewhere.

    120. JLT says:

      Well done, Stuart …you truly are the voice of enlightenment and reason in the United Kingdom; not just in Scotland. Seriously Sir …kudo’s to you.

      If this all does come to pass, mate, I think a space will have to be laid aside in the Scottish History books for your name.
      I think you have done such a great job, literally by yourself, that no one can deny it. You have been one of the voices in this debate, and let me tell you mate …that chart above …all those lines …a big part of that is down to you. Those lines are rising all the time. Why …because this site is one of only a few places where people can come, enlighten themselves to the truth, of what can be, and most of all, to make that dream come true. When people finally realise that there is an alternative choice; a better choice; a fairer choice, then no amount of negative input will stop it.

      This site offers people the way to that alternative choice, so Stuart …well done, mate!

      It seems once again, Scotland stands on the point of an epiphany… just like she did around 500 years ago, when a school was placed in every parish (though some towns and villages did miss out).
      But every child, no matter how poor, was taught to read and write. Within a 100 years, Scotland went from being the most backward illiterate nation in Europe to the most educated in the world. Another 100 years later, Scotland became a powerhouse that drove an Empire. Scotland became the greatest nation on the Earth due to that epiphany from 200 years earlier.

      That fact has never been forgotten. The modern world was created by the Scots. It was Scots who built America. Our best emigrated to the universities in the United States, or stepped up to lead in government, and thus, built a nation not long after America’s independence from Britain.

      Now it seems it is our turn at last. It should have been Scotland, not the US, who should have been the nation to have declared Independence in 1776.

      Well, here we stand again, this time with a new epiphany. A million people (and growing), who are determined to see Scotland become a better place no matter what. To have a fairer society. A country where no one lives in fear of extreme poverty or made to feel that they do not matter. A place where further education is free and not just for the privileged few, and an NHS available to all, and a unique culture just waiting to step forth properly in the eyes of the world.

      That is democracy.

      Through fairness, through wisdom …that is how a nation is defined.

      Not by how big, or how many warships you have, or how loud you can bellow on the world stage, or how many wars you have fought in, or how big your wallet is, or what privileged school you went too …it should be none of that.

      So, given the choice …what would you choose?

    121. Croompenstein says:

      @JLT that is brilliant, is it ok to use your post elsewhere?

    122. scottish_skier says:

      I’m not really sure what you’re referring to here, sorry.

      Have a look at that recent Yougov ‘Migration Observatory’ poll.

      43% identifying as British as part of their natID? That’s not right – the SSAS 2000-2013 average is only 34%. Well established as the 2011 census gives the same.

      Only 66% identifying as Scottish? Census is 83% having a Scottish identity with SSAS 2000-13 average of 74% Scottish in ‘forced choice nat-ID’.

      In Scotland, voting intention for elections is correlated with natID quite markedly. When it comes to indy it’s the biggest factor there is, obviously. If you don’t match the census in terms of natID, your base is off. Not weighting to natID in a natID referendum is rather strange to me!

      MORI have a similar problem (too British), although for them I think it’s a landline only issue. Older, more conservative respondents.

    123. Thepnr says:

      JLT

      Not often that happens but you gave me goose pimples. Excellent, Ta.

    124. scottish_skier says:

      Most people are basically honest and, like you

      Yes, but I wear my politics on my sleeve.

      SNP were polling on average 40% in 2009. Then they ‘collapsed’ to just over 30% as we entered 2011.

      They then got 45% in the election. Taking away the 5% lib defectors, 10% of the electorate were possibly lying to pollsters in 2010. They told them they were going to vote Labour but voted SNP. Maybe it wasn’t lies. Who knows. The SNP did nothing wrong and their support ‘reappeared’ out of nowhere just weeks before the election. a 15% total swing of which 10% had said ‘Labour’ to pollsters for over a year, then voted SNP. Was nuts.

      Scottish politics is totally different to UK politics. Not only do we have two parliaments, but the battle for the future of a nation is unfolding. Things are moving at a rate of knots.

      There are lots of people saying one thing to pollsters at one point, and another at other times. Yes gains votes primarily from No if you look at polls going back to 1997. People say Yes sometimes, and no at other times, depending on how acceptable it is to say Yes.

      It’s confusing as hell, but a product of circumstance.

      Supporting indy / the SNP is something which the UK press constantly attack. ‘Anti-English separatism’ etc. It causes a large number of people to lie when asked their views depending on who’s asking, why and how. Even the SoS as a unionist had said he knows this is happening.

      There’s a big shy indy vote just as there is/was a shy Tory vote. Very hard to establish what the level is though.

      Evidence to me suggests that the Yes is now solidifying but with volatility remaining in No. We are only likely to see polls reflecting the real outcome of the referendum as we get within a month or so of the date possibly.

      The more the gloves come off from Westminster however, the more likely we are to see honest responses from the Scottish electorate when asked. If George is not being polite…

    125. scottish_skier says:

      is/was a shy Tory vote

      UK-wide I mean for example, e.g. 1992 😉

    126. Braco says:

      Alexicon, cheers min!

      Bill C, thanks. I am just looking for a job that would allow me to survive, stay and concentrate on campaigning. The oil industry is great but sounds too much like a career change. Are you allowed to campaign on a rig? Sounds as dangerous as smoking! ;~)

      Muttley 79,
      That was my theme tune during the 2007 campaign in Aberdeen! How did you know?
      ‘ maybe tomorrow I’ll want to settle down?
      But till tomorrow I’ll just keep looking for a job 🙁 ‘

    127. muttley79 says:

      @Braco

      “That was my theme tune during the 2007 campaign in Aberdeen! How did you know?”

      I am an all seeing, all knowing uber genius… 😀 :D: LOL

    128. Roger Mexico says:

      scottish_skier

      I see what you mean now. I assume you’re referring to this survey taken back in October. I think you have to be very careful with wording here, because it asked “How would you describe your national identity?”. The Census on the other hand “What do you feel is your national identity?”. Some people might answer “British” to the first, because that is what it says on their passport; “Scottish” to the second because that is the more emotional tie. They’re not really identical and that may explain the difference.

      I obviously have a higher opinion of your compatriots’ honesty that you do. 😉 Actually I think something else is going on that explain the swings in SNP polling. More than in other parts of Britain (except possibly NE England) there is still a Labour ‘donkey vote’ phenomenon, where people say they will vote for them because they always have.

      Sometimes this happens as in 2010, possibly encouraged by the attacks on Brown’s Scottishness (there was a swing to Labour in Scotland) and a feeling that the SNP ‘did’ Holyrood and Labour Westminster. In 2011 it worked the other way and Labour’s dreadful campaign and the collapse of the Lib Dems also helped the SNP.

      The truth is a lot of vaguely leftish Scots feel they have two valid choices and will switch between them very happily according to circumstance and what they are voting for. Hence the big swings in the polls, rather than any deviousness or shyness on the part of the electorate.

    129. Stuart says:

      Have friend works in ipsos wm cabinet just had survey completed last week. 36 yes 48 no 16 DK this before any weighting and was just before currency announcement.

    130. Taranaich says:

      @Aidan: It’s happening. Talking to Stewart on the way back from the training-meeting-thing, both of us agreed that something has changed in where we’re all at and where the country is at. You can feel the groundswell to YES taking place.

      Please believe me when I say that meeting the mighty Taranaich – one of the gods of Wings – was the highlight of my day!

      Thanks, Aidan, you’re too kind!

      @TheGreatBaldo: “A little birdy tells me that the nats will have a little difficulty talking about ‘the wind in their sails’ tomorrow”

      Good grief, they can’t help sounding like supervillains, can they? “So, they think they have oil, eh? We’ll show them how much precious “oil” they’ll get! BWAHAHAHAHA”

    131. Braco says:

      Rev Stu,
      Calum Craig has just told me that you tweeted my comment request. I would really like to thank you for all your help Rev. Yours and everyone else’s that have answered or shown their support. Wings is a great community and a great resource. This is the attitude found throughout the yes movement and that is why we are going to win. It’s what winning is for.

    132. Alexandra-M- says:

      Good luck Braco!

    133. Morag says:

      Braco, I sent the link to your original post to a pro-indy architect I know. I don’t know if he’ll even click on it, but we try. Do you have somewhere to live at the moment?

    134. JLT says:

      Croompenstein.

      No probs, mate. On you go.

    135. scottish_skier says:

      Some people might answer “British” to the first, because that is what it says on their passport; “Scottish” to the second because that is the more emotional tie.

      They answer very consistently on natID over the years with Moreno averages almost perfectly matching the census. Take care in calling a Scotsman British lest he assumes you mean English and corrects you. Scotland is 74% Scottish if forced to choose (~1997 Q1 and SSAS forced choice natID).

      It is also 62% Scottish only (~1997 Q2, 2011 census and SSAS ‘Scottish not British + More Scottish than British Moreno’) Unless you are English of course, then they may lie to you to be polite and not claim e.g. to be ‘Scottish not British’ lest offence is caused. They even do this a little in polls / surveys depending on the mood of things.

      Same happens for indy. Unless they wear their politics on their sleeve, they may say ‘och naw’ to be polite when they support it. Even I have done this in various ways in the past. It is a very sensitive subject. Supporting Yes makes you a ‘nasty anti-English braveheart-loving economically stupid separatist’. That can make people kinda shy.

      You’d need to be Scottish to understand this well, i.e. that Scotland isn’t very British but can be shy about saying this depending on company / who’s asking.

      While there is crossover, natID is reflected in attitudes to indy/devo etc.

      1/3 Solid indy = ‘Scottish not British’
      1/3 Devo max = ‘More Scottish than British’
      Combined = ‘Scottish only’ census

      1/3 Status quo = Equally Scottish and British + More British than Scottish + British not Scottish SSAS and appropriate census groups

      If you start to look at Scotland not as Britain/England, then you’ll come to understand. England = Britain largely and it’s already independent. It just has a few Scots, Welsh and N. Irish in a corner of its parliament. This is not the case in Scotland. Scotland is governed as an appendage of greater England/Britain and that is reflected strongly in how people vote in Scotland.

      Scotland has never been British, always Scottish + British to varying extents. As the 1997 result reflected natID perfectly on both questions, so did the 1979 one. Scotland was much more British back then (post war British socialism). Maybe 55% or So Scottish (result 53% Yes).

      MORI record natID but don’t weight to it. If you attempt to correct for this, you end up with Y/N results much closer to all the other polls.

      NatID is the single biggest factor in constitutional views and to an extent voting intention (SNP are a movement, not a party largely). The first pollster that includes the census question on natID and weights to it for a natID referendum, will get the best picture.

      My advice as a ‘local’ polling geek anyway. 😉

    136. scottish_skier says:

      Oh and take the SSAS £500 better off question, exclude the DK’s and see what number you get. Look familiar huh? It’s an excuse, not a reason.

    137. Captain Caveman says:

      From my POV, the ‘no’ vote being ~10-15% at this stage of the game is pretty satisfactory. 🙂

      I’ve always said the end result will be between 60/40 – 55/45 in favour of keeping the Union. 🙂

    138. Braco says:

      Alexandra M , thanks. It’s much appreciated.

      Moray,
      Thanks for taking the time to do that. Very kind of you. I have place just now but if I don’t find a job soon I will have to head back to Lisbon to survive and regroup. Very frustrating and upsetting!

    139. Braco says:

      Sorry Morag, damn screen keyboard!

    140. DRD Woodward says:

      Please can anyone help me ….. If Yes wins the referendum with 70% of the votes cast ….. how is that represented in Points?
      or do we just call that a Tsunami?

    141. Non-Scot, not in England says:

      I fail to understand why this is a comment site for considered debate when all people contributing appear to concluded “Yes” to be the only solution.

      I have not seen any reasoned argument from either campaign. Please can somebody provide some facts?

    142. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “I have not seen any reasoned argument from either campaign. Please can somebody provide some facts?”

      We do little BUT provide facts. What do you want to know?

    143. Non-Scot, not in England says:

      As an Englishman who does not live in England I can only stand back and observe what I see as a Scottish (not-SNP) decision.

      What I am tired of though is that the media and people contributing to any forum take an opinion and find facts that fit. Where there is very little argument some statistic can be used in any way desired (baffle with BS).

      Perhaps I do not need facts, however I would like to know the reasoned opinion of the majority of Scottish people and not the thoughts of the most passionate who advocate “Yes”.

      As an Englishman I believe this is the decision for the people of Scotland and the issue of independence should be manged in a mature way. I do not want this turning nasty.



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