For quite some time now, and in particular since the turn of the year, this site’s been pointing out two things about polling for the 2015 UK general election.
One is that Labour’s lead has been in steady decline since 2012. The other is that the polls present a falsely optimistic picture for Ed Miliband’s party, as ultimately a significant proportion of UKIP support is likely to vote tactically, because only two people have a chance of becoming Prime Minister and only one of them is promising what UKIP supporters want above all else – a referendum on leaving the EU.
Pleasingly, on one level at least, today we were proved right.
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Tags: Kinnock Factor
Category
analysis, psephology, stats, uk politics
An email we just got from the Office for National Statistics:
“Hello! The ONS is launching a compendium of statistics on 5 June which enables people to compare stats for Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland across subjects such as their economies and populations.”
We’re not entirely sure where they even got our address, but our curiosity’s piqued.
Category
stats, uk politics
In our poll results earlier today, we found out what Scots thought about the past and the present. But we also asked them to look ahead at the sort of Scotland (and UK) they see developing over the space of the next decade.
Here’s what they thought.
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Tags: poll
Category
analysis, psephology, scottish politics, stats
The chance presented itself recently to conduct a quick bit of snap opinion polling at a lower cost than our usual, so it seemed daft not to jump on it. The data below comes from the same Panelbase survey whose headline findings (Yes 46% No 54% excluding don’t-knows) were reported in the Sunday Times at the weekend, and sampled 1046 Scottish adults earlier this month.
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Tags: poll
Category
analysis, psephology, scottish politics, stats
There’s been a fair bit of crowing from “Better Together” about some recent poll results. Which is fair enough – almost everybody likes to shout when they get some good news (though this site has consistently urged caution over polling findings months before a vote, whether favourable or not).
It is, however, always wise to look at the small print.
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Tags: arithmetic failmisinformation
Category
analysis, psephology, scottish politics, stats
The top five most-read stories on Wings Over Scotland in the last seven days.
1. Quoted For Truth Extra
The first defection to Yes from inside “Better Together” itself.
2. The talk of the town
What Alex Salmond really said to GQ, stripped of media hysteria.
3. What an arsehole looks like
Vile taxpayer-funded scumbag repeatedly abuses decent citizens in public.
4. Character assassination
Journalism, as imagined by a petulant six-year-old.
5. Look away now
Massive story almost totally and inexplicably ignored.
This week’s theme: not pretending any more.
Category
scottish politics, stats
This morning’s Sunday Herald carries a typically sour and sneery quote from “Better Together” campaign director Blair McDougall in response to a Yes Scotland release of financial data relating to its campaign funding:
“No-one would criticise the Weirs, who are longstanding SNP supporters. However, it is extraordinary that compared to the tens of thousands of small donations received by Better Together, almost 80% of Yes Scotland’s money comes from one source.
We now know why they have been hiding their donations for so long.”
Firstly, of course, he might want to revise that opening sentence, since his campaign’s representative Alex Johnstone MSP seems quite unable to stop criticising the Weirs, repeatedly painting them as gullible and dishonest dupes of the evil Alex Salmond.
But as usual, Mr McDougall’s obnoxious bluster also conceals a cynical misdirection.
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Category
analysis, scottish politics, stats
Just magnificent work from the Daily Mail today.
Really only a couple of tiny quibbles.
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Category
analysis, media, scottish politics, stats
Readership stats for April, for those interested.
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Category
navel-gazing, stats
Anyone involved in the independence debate for any length of time will probably already have lost count of how many times they’ve heard the plaintive we-cannae-dae-it wail of “But how will you pay for all of Alex Salmond’s milk and honey promises?”
So here’s a clue.
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Category
comment, scottish politics, stats
Earlier this week we did a little poking and prodding of the Scotsman’s last ICM poll, and now the full data tables are in for the latest one, so to while away an hour before tea we figured we may as well do a bit of comparing and see how things had changed.
Wait! Come back! There’ll be Miley Cyrus at the end!
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Category
analysis, music, psephology, scottish politics, stats, video
Here’s the Scottish Labour finance spokesman Iain Gray on last night’s Newsnight Scotland, discussing Gordon Brown’s speech in Glasgow on pensions because Mr Brown himself refused to answer any questions about it.
As ever with Mr Gray, he packs a lot of entertainment into a short space of time.
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Tags: flat-out lies
Category
analysis, reference, scottish politics, stats, world
