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Bending truth until it breaks

Posted on May 19, 2014 by

There’s been a fair bit of crowing from “Better Together” about some recent poll results. Which is fair enough – almost everybody likes to shout when they get some good news (though this site has consistently urged caution over polling findings months before a vote, whether favourable or not).

It is, however, always wise to look at the small print.

latestpolls

Above is a graphic posted on the “Better Together” Facebook page at the weekend. Let’s break each of those claims down and see if they stand up to scrutiny.

latest1

This in fact ISN’T the “latest” Ipsos Mori poll at all. It’s from March 3, two and a half months ago, and the 2% increase referred to is in comparison to a poll conducted last December. The actual most recent Ipsos Mori poll was commissioned by the UK government, which has for some reason declined to release the results, claiming:

“We do research to identify information people require to help them make an informed decision. It is not usual practice to publish internal research”

Wait, what? You ask people questions in order to “help them make an informed decision”, but then don’t tell them the results? How are they supposed to make an informed decision if you hide the information? (Also, if you got that information from asking the people in the first place, didn’t they already know it anyway?)

latest2

The second statement is probably the most bare-facedly misleading on the graphic. Firstly, it wasn’t a “YouGov” poll at all. YouGov did the fieldwork, but the poll was actually commissioned for the Sunday Mail by Progressive Partnership, who then applied the all-important weighting that determines the final figures.

(And which nobody has yet seen, though we’re still trying to get hold of it.)

Secondly, the No campaign were the only people who interpreted its findings as an increase in their lead. The Sunday Mail itself reported the findings as “Gap closes between the Yes and No campaigns”, and noted that in fact they showed a nine-point DECREASE in the No lead compared to Progressive’s previous poll.

Professor John Curtice of What Scotland Thinks concurred with the Mail’s analysis:

The poll shows a six point swing to Yes compared with last November. Since then, of course, every other pollster has recorded a narrowing of the No lead. To that extent today’s poll is simply further evidence of that narrowing.

The “Better Together” claim rests – as they reluctantly acknowledge in very small print at the bottom of the graphic – on comparing the Progressive poll to a “real” YouGov one commissioned by Channel 4 a few days earlier, which used YouGov’s own weighting and would therefore produce completely different outcomes.

[EDIT 23 May: We’ve now managed to secure the release of the data tables from the Sunday Mail. They show that no political weighting at all was applied to the “raw” findings, making an absolute mockery of comparing them to a politically-weighted YouGov poll.]

When both the people who commissioned a poll and the country’s leading impartial psephologist say it shows a substantial swing to Yes, claiming the exact opposite requires a very flexible attitude to reality and a certain amount of chutzpah.

latest6

latest3

Ask a polling company and they’ll tell you that any poll with a sample of around 1000 people has a built-in margin of error of 3%. The Survation poll in question even includes a preface pointing that fact out (it puts the precise figure for that poll at 3.1%).

Any fluctuation within that range is therefore essentially meaningless, and can’t be legitimately described as “momentum” in either direction.

latest4

“Unchanged” rather speaks for itself.

latest5

Which leaves only the most dramatic poll, the ICM one for Scotland on Sunday apparently showing a substantial No swing of 4.5%. The full data tables for the poll have only just been released, and tellingly show that just as with the Progressive Partnership poll, the No campaign is comparing apples with oranges.

ICM have altered their methodology since their previous poll – for more detail, read James Kelly’s explanation over on Scot Goes Pop. While it’s possible to debate what effect the changes (most noticeably a rather leading preceding question) may or may not have had on the results, what can’t be disputed is that in polling terms the conditions for the two polls weren’t the same, and therefore the results can’t be meaningfully measured against one another.

So out of the six polls which “Better Together” claim show momentum is on their side, one shows no change at all, two show changes within the standard margin of error (ie effectively no change), one actually shows a significant swing AWAY from No, one is an invalid comparison and the other one is months old and has been superseded by a new poll from the same company which the UK government is frantically suppressing.

In other words, NOT ONE of the six polls shows a verifiable movement towards No.

It is, fair-minded readers may feel, a slightly different picture to the one painted.

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    1. 19 05 14 17:54

      Bending truth until it breaks | Scottish Independence News

    2. 09 06 14 19:47

      #IndyRef Weekly Review #2: Bias in the BBC and Lies from Better Together | National Collective

    205 to “Bending truth until it breaks”

    1. David says:

      I’ve said this time and again, most of the polls are ‘weighted’ not raw data. Well without a complete explanation of the weighting as well as the sample size, location, time etc it means nothing at all. A good polling company wouldn’t need to ‘weight’ results.

      Let’s face it, on september 18th the results won’t be weighted, it’ll be the actual figures, the raw data, that will present the outcome.

    2. handclapping says:

      Gosh the polls are important to them. I wonder when they will have to make them up.

    3. Graeme Reid says:

      Regarding the uploaded BT polls above. Is it really in their best interest to try and spin and lie when without question they will be found out. Whats the difference between the March the 3rd poll by yougov and the latest one they will not publish. How can one be for the ‘public domain’but the latest one (basically the exact same in regards to gaining the information and funded by the tax payer) be for ‘internal use only ? They are getting desperate !

    4. lumatrix says:

      Polls – Ah! the polls. Like the infamous 2011 poll which showed Labour on 49% and Ian Gray (Who won his seat by only 300+ votes) was a shoo-in for FM. – RIGHT – Those sort of polls.

      They are utter garbage but as long the BT crowd believe them its in the interest of YES to keep them in their blissful ignorance and hopefully not bother voting.

    5. JasonW says:

      This is brilliant, a friend of mine slapped this on my facebook when I had a rant about Westminster hiding the poll.

      I did try to explain to him how wrong he was but he had a picture with numbers on it so he could never be wrong

      Glad i now have pictures and a full blowing in depth article to finally shut him up

      cheers 🙂

    6. The Man in the Jar says:

      I was thinking that the forthcoming EU election results will be picked over and analised till the cows come home.

      I hope as many people as possible get out and vote for a pro independence party. Lets send them a message.

    7. Luigi says:

      Gosh the polls are important to them.

      Main reasons:

      1. A security requirement (comfort blanket)

      2. A need to gloat (feel good factor, to counter their depression)

      3. An absolute desperation to stop the inevitable momentum toward YES

      4. A desire to manipulate public opinion (they are all sheep, after all)!

    8. heedtracker says:

      Its just Projectfearing for Dummies, and you’re in the minority and who wants that. BBC24 had vote no BBCScotland bloke on just there bashing away at how you’re not to worry as they are winning in the polls all the time and then he signed off with, EU says vote yes and the cost of Scots children’s clothes will rise. Its getting worse by the minute!

    9. Iona Brand says:

      This was quickly debunked on numerous Facebook.pages for the risible rubbish it so patently was. Leaving aside the laughable nature of the figures, the unionists expect the latest “secret” poll to be released due to a FOI request, so the predictable unionist tactic is to flood the debate with rubbish so as to dilute the truth. I would remind readers that there is another “poll” on Thursday 22nd May, the results of which won’t be so easily suppressed.

    10. Luigi says:

      The big spoiler is the huge number of people who don’t normally vote, but are determined to have a say in September. These people, who I believe will decide the result, are completely under the radar.

      Yes, the pollsters will say, we are taking that into consideration. However, no matter how clever and sophisticated the weighting system used, it’s just too big an unknown to factor in accurately. Risky!

      Never mind, as long as BT feel comfortable, I can live with their dubious polls.

    11. Les Wilson says:

      If, they do believe their polls BT and Westminster, (oh they know already!) are in for one big frigging shock!

      It is because Westminster is now aware of the feelings of Scots, that we have suddenly had an upturn in poison from every corner. They are shitting themselves.

    12. desimond says:

      We dont believe one word Better Together tell us ( we dont even believe 1 word in their name!) and this Poll is no different.

      I wonder how many people on their side still believe this sort of tiresome bombast. Its getting Comical Ali-esque

      “There are no YES Leads in Blysthwood Square!”

    13. Westie7 says:

      I still smell a rat with the continuous use of these skewed polls.
      The only reason I can see for constantly bashing on with No in the lead polls, which in all likelihood are hiding a different result! Is to use them to discredit a Yes result on the 19th.
      Would they try to set aside a Yes as a “Rogue” result and say they polls said it wasnt possible so it cant be true?
      After all “they” still havent got their heads round the 2011 election result.

    14. Jim Thomson says:

      @David

      The polls HAVE to be weighted because they are samples across demographic groups where you will have a large number of respondents in some groups where they have a low representation in the general population. Weighting is used in an attempt to normalise the outcomes and try to reflect that general population.

    15. jon esquierdo says:

      I don’t know how the polls arrive at these figures because when I ask family and friends it is running neck and neck and when friends ask their family and friends I am told there is nothing between yes and no

    16. jon esquierdo says:

      Can I also say that in the 2011 Scottish elections I used the same family and friends method and knew long before the election that the SNP were going to win yet the polls had them 10points behind

    17. Liquid Lenny says:

      jon esquierdo

      Are with the Family and Friends re the 2011 election, however I am not getting that feeling just now. I would say that the polls are correct, we are slightly behind, but we don’t want to go ahead at this stage!

    18. caz-m says:

      I wonder if Blair McDougall will put these poll results on the Better Together website.

      From the Labour List website,

      A third poll shows Tories in the lead. 19th May 2014.

      http://labourlist.org/2014/05/third-polling-company-now-show-small-tory-lead/

    19. desimond says:

      Jon and Lenny

      Strangely Im the opposite, only know of 1 undecided ( Euro sceptic) and 1 No ( my 78 yr old mother in law). Every one else i talk to, friends, family and strangers seem to be of the Yes persuasion.

      I ofter wonder who all these NO voters are because they dont appear to inhabit the south side of Glasgow much.

    20. YESGUY says:

      The only poll that matters is the one on the day. And many YES voters i know are keeping quiet till nearer the 18th. They don’t want to contend with the bitter together rhetoric and the shameful bias of the MSM.

      WE ARE WINNING . I know tens and hundred s of yes voters and only a handful on No voters(Rangers fans funnily enough)

      The re-action of a desperate westmidden who know they are losing. And it will get worse and i hope so too. I have tried to change many NO voters mind all year and with limited success . But the constant smears and scares are turning No’s and undecided to YES

      KEEP IT UP

    21. Bill Cruickshank says:

      Brilliant debunking of unionist propaganda Stu. No wonder you are Better Together’s pin up boy. LoL

    22. Juteman says:

      I think we should stop calling them ‘Better Together’, and start calling them Camerons ego trip. Fair’s fair. If independence is one mans fantasy, then the union must be his.

    23. Andy-B says:

      Very good deconstruction, of Better Together’s somewhat biased polls, you only have to look at the amount of unionist politicians swarming all over Scotland just now, to know that YES is ahead in the polls.

    24. Peter Macbeastie says:

      Ah, polls. They may ‘have’ to be weighted, but weighting has an interesting tendency to get a result whoever commissions the poll will like.

      While it may be intended to normalise results it regularly hides any hint of what would be the closest outcome. Evidence? When every poll bar one was predicting a close result, or even a Labour win, in 2011 and the one poll that came out with a completely different result was dismissed as a rogue result.

      That rogue result was around two percent off the final result, which is a very acceptable margin of error for polling. And it was by the polling company the SNP prefer to use, which would explain why Eck was smiling so much when all the other polls were predicting a bad day for the SNP.

      No shock at all to see a BT graphic massaging ‘facts’ to suit themselves. They’re so blatant about it now they no longer bother to even try to defend it.

    25. BuckieBraes says:

      Even if it’s true that the momentum is with No, and ‘Better Together’ manages to win this referendum, it will have been achieved on the back of possibly the most dishonest and dishonourable political campaign in recent history.

      They may wish to examine their consciences afterwards – if they have any.

    26. Truth says:

      Well, just posted off the voter registration for my wife who is a new British citizen.

      Oh the irony that she’ll use that status to vote for Scottish citizenship.

      She’s one of those under the radar people that another poster talked of.

    27. Les Wilson says:

      BuckieBraes says:

      Hi, easily sorted, they have no consciences.

    28. Frankie goes to Holyrood says:

      Question 14 in “new” ICM poll is STILL VERY WORRYING for the NO camp…

      If, in September, you think Tories will win UK May 2015 election, how will you vote in the Referendum?

      YES 40%
      NO 43%
      DK 17%

    29. Stuart McLean says:

      Have it on good authority that the unweighted figures for ipsos are 36 yes 48 no and 16 dont know. Not sure if any of the experts on here could apply similar weighting from previous published polls to extrapolate the comparable figures.

    30. Jim Marshall says:

      Finger on the pulse again Stuart. These polls and the interpretation of them are fraudulent. It is worthwhile looking at accurate polls, these being the UK Gen election 2010 and the Scottish Parliament election of 2011.

      Share of popular vote in Scotland 2010.

      Labour 42%

      SNP 19.9%

      Lib Dem 18.9%

      Tory 16.7%

      Share of popular vote 2011

      SNP 44.04%

      Labour 26.31%

      Tory 12.36%

      Lib Dem 5.2%

      It is obvious from these figures that the Scottish electorate were dismayed after having voted Labour in 2010 and got a Tory government for their trouble.

      This was the reason for the massive swing to SNP in 2011.

      It is also obvious that a repeat of the 2011 vote in the referendum will result in a victory for YES.

    31. bookie from hell says:

      Do polls sway voters?

    32. fergie35 says:

      All my family and friends are Yes. Most of work mates are Yes, I know 4 people at work who are No, out of them, one is sectarian, one is a feartie, two are obnoxious, and it just so happens that they all have a common factor, they are complete tossers by nature, which leads me to believe that irrespective of race and religion, the No support relies on tossers & fearties

    33. Schrodingers Cat says:

      i saw another poll in the scotsman, indicating a rise in YES votes if ukip do well in next weeks EU elections, i have been saying this for months and if the YES momentum has stalled(im unsure since the % are so small) this will surely drag them back to yes.
      suggestion Mr Campbell, wait for the EU result to sink in then crowd fund raise another, one that we can believe in. these “knobbled” polls were one of the reasons i contributed to the first poll you did
      thanks again for you prolific imput

      o/t
      YESGUY
      i know some st johnstone fans who are voting no also, no point taking digs at rangers fans, even small ones……..to win we need their support too.

    34. Richard G says:

      Just checked the raw data on Panelbase, and allowing for their 52/45 yes split on the undecideds, the result comes out at 47.5% for Yes and 52.5% No – a five point difference and pretty much where we were a month ago. I guess we just need to help the undecideds a tiny bit more in the right direction.

    35. galamcennalath says:

      It is understandable that BT/MSM don’t want to allow Yes to appear winners. That a valid tactic in a general sense. However, it seems distinctly suspicious that quite so much data misrepresentation, invalid analysis and dodgy comparison is being carried out. Stu has made a convincing case for it going beyond valid tactic!

      It looks distinctly like BT are trying to hide something!

      Turn the logic around. If there is a swing back to No, why haven’t BT put forward an irrefutable case? Conclusion: they haven’t so there isn’t evidence.

      The reality must be either, it’s very close now, or there is a continuing swing to Yes.

      This can’t go on all the way until September. Full raw data and weighting methods will appear. Valid comparisons (apples and apples) will be made. More accurate pictures will appear. BT are just delaying the inevitable.

    36. Schrodingers Cat says:

      @fergie

      we also need the support of obnoxious tossers to win

      keep it positive guys, it isnt easy, i lose the rag too, I freely admit this, I’ve been banned from the guardian many times(dead cats with 9 lives are very hard to get rid off)
      Im not being hypocritical, i’m just pointing out that we are being goaded and it will get worse. we need to be whiter than white, mind our Ps and Qs and be as positive as we can

    37. galamcennalath says:

      bookie from hell says:

      Do polls sway voters?

      I guess because people prefer to be on the winning side?

    38. fergie35 says:

      I’ve never been polled, so excuse my ignorance, do pollsters go through a phone book and chose people at random, or, like with the Daily Mail, do they have online polls?

    39. Schrodingers Cat says:

      @galamcennalath
      i believe you are right

      but curtice will call a poll conducted by wings as he sees it and the last one we did, apart from the obligatory derogatory remarks, he did call a spade a spade.

      thats why we crowd fund our own polls

      i think this is a world first, not sure if anyone can confirm this?

    40. caz-m says:

      The official Referendum Campaign starts on 29th May and it was reported that instead of trying to win back votes from YES, Better Together’s new tactic was to save what they had.

      These false polls are designed to re-assure the existing NO vote.

      Because Better Together know that once the YES Campaign gets up and running, then their is only going to be one winner.

      O/T
      Also, remember to vote for a Pro-Indy Party on Thursday.

    41. fergie35 says:

      @Schrodingers Cat says:

      ‘we also need the support of obnoxious tossers to win’

      I agree 100% with you and I keep it diplomatic, but out of the 4, two are full of hate and even when the are diplomatically destroyed with debate, they despise Scottish nation status even more!

    42. Frankie goes to Holyrood says:

      For the next Wings over Scotland poll, would it be possible to investigate some of the protocol and weighting issues? Do we have enough information about the protcols of the other online pollsters, i.e. ICM, Survation and YouGov, to compare with the Panelbase default? We could use the same raw results, but come up with a range of final results with different weighting rules.

      We could also split the next Wings over Scotland poll into two and use a different protocol with each. That would be a way to get a handle on some of the effects, e.g. difference between asking how you will vote today/to-morrow (as used by Survation and YouGov) and in September. More importantly perhaps, this splitting could also be used to study preamble effects. However, it would require a much bigger sample.

      Apologies if these suggestions are naive and/or too costly!

    43. scottish_skier says:

      I wonder if BT will compare the next real Yougov poll with that Progressive Opinion poll in a nice wee graphic?

      Also, assuming the next ICM doesn’t have an exceedingly dodgy question before the indy one, a comparison with Sunday’s calamity should be interesting too.

      They’re setting themselves up for a fall.

    44. Stoops says:

      To balance, I work in the oil industry and the overwhelming majority of my colleagues are No voters. All are comfortably salaried and ill informed. They believe the status quo will be maintained after a No win, and get quite irate when challenged on this!

    45. heedtracker says:

      Hi Schrodingers Cat, speak of the devilish but just heard vote no Jacky Bird teatime BBC news headline blaming SNP Scots.gov for radiation pollution in Dalgetty Bay there, which I mind you mentioning on bettertogether Guardian.

      Cant bring myself to watch old smirky though!

    46. gerry parker says:

      Well if that’s what the polls say then we need to just go out and redouble our efforts.

    47. Kirsty says:

      Fergie35,

      As far as I know, people have to register with the polling companies to be members of their panel. They then get invited to take part in the polls.

    48. galamcennalath says:

      Stoops says:
      “…..my colleagues are No voters……They believe the status quo will be maintained after a No win”

      I am convinced that is a big weakness in No support. Some will be dyed in the wool Unionists, but it’s obvious with No people I talk to that many are convinced it will be ‘carry on as usual’ after No. As you’ve said, particularly those who feel comfortable just now.

      They are very wrong! And therein lies the key to persuading them to shift their position. This has long since moved away from change versus no change. It’s now change for the better versus change for the worse!

    49. Juteman says:

      @Stoops.
      I also work in the oil industry, and 90% of the folk I work with are Yes voters. 🙂

    50. Walter Scott says:

      . The hope is that because the No’s think they have it in the bag then maybe a lot of them won’t bother to vote if they’re so confident that they’ll always be around 20% in front of the Yes vote. Can someone explain their tactics? Or is it the Zanu PF school of politics,,,, That is, when the votes are counted & No wins by 20% then they can say.. You see, we told you we were miles in front No matter how many votes you get we were always going to win.

    51. Alba4Eva says:

      If the Poll’s were actually showing well for the Naw side, then they wouldn’t be making stuff up.

      Stu (and others) critical analysis of the facts, combined with the exposed lies are all the proof you need to know that YES is Winning.

      Keep on at em 🙂

    52. Schrodingers Cat says:

      @fergie

      yeah, it isnt easy

      after a yes vote, they will get it back in spades, especially when the truth bout how much scotland is subsidising the ruk is finally revealed

      the only chance of a comeupance is a yes vote. we must do everything we can to ensure we win.

    53. Abaron Nomore says:

      Possible reasons for pretending No is doing better than it is?

      – Bolster morale on their side
      – Prevent momentum building for Yes. Amazingly many people vote the way they think everyone else is
      – Make a No win more believable if they are planning to fiddle the results
      – Give a plausible excuse for “false flag” terrorist attacks apparently by wicked nationalist types.

    54. Stoops says:

      Galamcennalath, the level of denial is unbelievable, a very hard nut to crack. When you’re in a minority with either young opinionated engineers or headstrong supervisors I rarely make any headway. Maybe it’s just the culture of the company I work for?

      I must work with the other 10% Juteman 😉

    55. taysideterrier says:

      Never thought they would lie like that, I thought they were a respectable campaign!

      Whatever makes the imperialists/colonialists happy!

    56. cal says:

      How exactly does this polling thing work anyway? I don’t know a single person who’s ever been asked anything in any poll about anything ever. And I include my mother and my sister’s mother-in-law in that and they are both well into their eighties! Do you need to register with them to be asked anything and if so how can they possibly factor in all those extra people they say will be voting who never usually vote? Come to think of it, how do they even know how many people are going to vote anyway if they only ask peoplewho register with them? Surely those people who make the effort to register with them are the kind of motivated who tend to vote anyway? I’m confused!

      Completely off topic. Sorry but I came across this very interesting article today which may be of interest Rev. http://www.bbc.co.uk/history/british/modern/marshall_01.shtml Maybe you’ve come across it before. Is sorry for wasting your time.

    57. Mathie says:

      In 2007 only 50.6% of the electorate voted.
      In 2011 53.9% of the electorate voted.
      Yes much more passionate than No about outcome – it may be close but I think it will be Yes.

    58. Wp says:

      We don’t want to peak too early,but maybe the hidden poll shows we have.

    59. Schrodingers Cat says:

      @heedtracker
      hi heed, yeah, this came from a report that westminster was forced to publish which said that the SG should do something about it……….blood boiling
      look closer at the terms of the investigation heed, ” to establish the extent of the radon luminous dial radiation at dalgety”
      which if you remember my posts was exactly the point i was making
      all bbc news releases state “sources believe that the radiation is due to aircraft luminous dials”…..nb, they never attribute this comment to anyone,
      the bbc report from sepa saying they had abandoned their investigation due to the danger posed to their employees from the cesium 137 has disappeared from the internet
      hint, as a qualified offshore RPS……..radon(luminous paint) doesnt produce cesium 137, it isnt a by product. this report has been nobbled no doubt about it heed.
      ps, dont have tv reception where i live and although i sometimes watch the aye player, i cant bring mysel’ to watch ol’ smirky 🙂

    60. heedtracker says:

      Forecasts of 80% to 90% turn out at least on 18th Sept is almost certainly Scottish voters registering and coming out to vote YES. People just do not turn out like this for a UK/Westminster election, ever.

      http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/may/17/scottish-referendum-no-peacekeepers-needed

      The turnout on 18 September is expected to be between 80% and 90%, perhaps the biggest for a democratic plebiscite in recent European history. In my lifetime, I have never known so many Scots to be as politically engaged.

    61. taysideterrier says:

      In the Quebec referendum when the polls showed a yes lead the Canadian dollar lost 1.5% overnight.

      This is why they will never show a yes lead in any poll, and they are doing everything they can to distort the truth.

      I will eat my hat if there are ever any polls published from now until 18th sept that show a yes lead!

    62. heedtracker says:

      @ Schrodingers Cat, I had never heard of the pollution at Dalgetty Bay, until you raised the issue back in the day and showing how important all online cif can be.

      Two cat thumbs up!

    63. caz-m says:

      S_S

      And the good Professor C is losing credibility by the day.

      His impartiality mask has nearly fallen off. He is a disgrace to his craft.

      That should get him plenty more hours in front of the BBC Scotland cameras.

      Does Professor C not realise that other polling experts like your good self S_S, will be going over these figures and will be wondering how the good Prof comes to these conclusions.

    64. Schrodingers Cat says:

      @heed
      I have never known so many Scots to be as politically engaged.

      indeed
      after a yes vote, we will meet up, with all of our friends
      problem is, there isnt a pub/hotel football stadium big enough
      it will be somewhere central
      i suggest in a field next to stirling castle, bannockburn, october 2014 would be fitting and im sure the folk on wings could organise it no probs (crowd fund portaloos etc)…….something to look forward to guys
      keep the heed, keep the faith, keep it warm…….and above all vote yes

    65. Croompenstein says:

      @heedtracker – That’s a good article by Kevin McKenna, liked this bit..

      Although nationalists are deemed to have more unruly supporters in this area than unionists, the truth is that the ordure has been spread about pretty evenly. And much of it, I have to admit, has been entertaining, if not edifying.

      It’s not the nastiness and the bad language that they fear, it’s the fact that they can’t control it. For be assured that no one does nastiness and unpleasantness better than the British state when it deems the realm to be in any kind of danger.

      And you better believe that their realm is in danger.

    66. Schrodingers Cat says:

      @heed
      I had never heard of the pollution at Dalgetty Bay, until you raised the issue back in the day and showing how important all online cif can be.

      tx, i just wish a better writer than me would investigate the story, i believe there is milage in it for us

    67. Richard Bruce says:

      It’s good to read this Stu, thanks. I noticed the ‘slump’ in the yes vote predictions, was showing on Euronews today. Again highlighting the leader of the YES campaign as Alex Salmond.

      I guess Euronews get’s it’s UK news straight from the BBC these days, without any fact finding by their own journalists. It must be running on a shoestring budget what with the European elections being fairly covered every 20 minutes.

      It makes you wonder what else they are getting wrong then spreading around the world/Europe.

    68. Calgacus MacAndrews says:

      From the door-chapping canvassing I have done the (unscientific) sampling says that the more better-off the households seem, the more likely the voting intentions will be for NO.

      The great thing is that in Scotland the better-off element are a minority.

      My gut feeling at the moment is that YES is in front now (maybe just), and that is why BT are in a panic and are cranking up the evil stuff (which will backfire).

      As has been said earlier, we need to just stay positive and keep our eye on the ball (not rising to any bait, not being distracted).

      The YES Campaign has now built a huge grass-roots ‘army’, and the great work by websites and organisations like Wings, BfS, Bella, Newsnet, National Collective, Common Weal, Radical Independence etc. have created, collected, and documented the ‘ammunition’.

      With ‘battle’ beginning in earnest from June onwards, if we all play our parts, there will only be one winner come September 18th.

    69. Thepnr says:

      Sorry Rev O/T

      Still trying to drum up support for the WoS night out at the Counting House Glasgow on 30th May. So far 8 Wingers from the Dundee and Angus area will be coming through on the bus I’ve arranged.

      This is an executive coach so will be a comfortable journey. It seats 40 so 32 places still available. I’ve decided that I’ll cover the cost and that all seats are free so as no one is denied a seat if cost would be an issue

      Happy to take any donations if some want to chip in.

      I’m really keen to help make this a very successful night and would much prefer the seats to go to people who read Wings first before I start offering any not filled to friends and family.

      So if you fancy a good night out amongst friends and live in the Dundee and Angus area, grab yourself a seat or two on the bus. Pick up points are flexible and will cover everything south of Brechin to Dundee and Perth if there are any takers. Please leave your requirements over in Off Topic. Book 6 if you like and bring a few mates! Cheers.

    70. JLT says:

      Taysideterrier
      In the Quebec referendum when the polls showed a yes lead the Canadian dollar lost 1.5% overnight.

      And yet, for all Osborne’s smug assertions that the UK economy is recovering, we had over the weekend, Mark Carney at the BoE warning the UK of an unstable housing market.

      I remember reading once (for the life of me …I can’t remember what it was, but it might have been Max Keiser, the American broadcaster who takes a deep interest in the Stock Market). If it was Max, the claim was that there would be two bailouts before the people did revolt in disgust at the Government and the Banking system.

      Well, we’ve had one huge bailout …and did the Tories follow their promises of breaking up the Banks, and regulating the system. Nope.
      Which means, that the same system that crashed the world, is still in place in the UK. The Bankers still get their bonuses, the Banks are still one super-giant conglomerate, and the Housing Market is beginning to grow once more.

      Why do I get this ominous feeling that we are about to repeat the process.

      Well …I really hope we’re out of this Union should a 2nd bailout be needed to repair the housing bubble that is growing once more in the SE of England.

    71. galamcennalath says:

      Stoops says:
      “….young opinionated engineers or headstrong supervisors I rarely make any headway”

      Not the feartie Nos, the change denying Nos. I don’t know if I’ve actually converted any deniers, but the scenario I paint is….

      No win.

      Tories win at UK level.

      Tax powers to Holyrood with Barnett removed. Arranged to squeeze Scottish services. Nothing for Westminster to fear anymore from Scots so they can just do that. Appeases English voters nicely.

      Current London led Labour win in Scotland. To maintain services under Tory cutbacks, they raise tax on everyone above average earnings in Scotland.

      Now that gets the attention of those who consider themselves comfortable. They at least go off to think about it.

      Independence with full tax powers and less defence/WMD spending is quite different.

    72. RogueCoder says:

      Sorry to go off topic with this, but a few people I know (might be related to them) have launched a response to VNoB – VoteYESBorders.com. It’s the positive case for indy Scotland within Europe.

    73. taysideterrier says:

      @ JLT

      And if the markets dip before the referendum you know what they will blame….

    74. galamcennalath says:

      “RogueCoder says:
      VoteYESBorders.com. It’s the positive case for indy Scotland within Europe.”

      Nice one!

    75. Andy-B says:

      Gregory’s Girl star John Gordon Sinclair, says I’m a YES man.

      http://www.cumbernauld-media.com/news/politics/1142-gregory-s-girl-star-backs-yes-vote-in-indyref

    76. X_Sticks says:

      @Rev. Stuart Campbell

      “in particular due to something mildly astonishing that happened yesterday”

      Oh, you tease you!

      @Westie7

      “I still smell a rat with the continuous use of these skewed polls.”

      Skewed polls to support a ‘skewed’ vote?

      @Juteman & Stoops.

      I think there is a big difference between the offshore workforce and the onshore workforce. Are you comparing two different things?

      From what I know the offshore seems largely pro-indy. The beach mob are by and large No.

    77. caz-m says:

      Remember, to win this Referendum, we need 50% of the turnout to vote YES, plus yer auntie…

    78. liz says:

      @Thepnr – I won’t be in Glasgow that night or I would have come.
      Maybe next time.

    79. Andy-B says:

      UKIP victory south of the border, will be a boost to Scottish independence., says the FT, and I tend to agree with them.

      http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d1305d84-df70-11e3-8842-00144feabdc0.html#axzz32Bo8xrC5

    80. BuckieBraes says:

      ‘Gregory’s Girl star John Gordon Sinclair, says I’m a YES man.’

      ‘Bella! Bella!’

    81. alexicon says:

      The slanted polls are designed to keep the unionist vote on board especially the labour vote.
      If the vote were to reflect any resemblance of the truth then the no voters would feel in the minority and many voters would simply vote for the wining side, which is going to be YES.
      The other advantages of showing a majority no in the polls is to demoralise your opponent and to keep the troops in check. i.e. Keep their own politicians and party members from jumping ship which could set in place a scramble out of the unionist camp’s door.
      You also have to keep in mind that a lot of so called no voters won’t even turn out to vote.

    82. bookie from hell says:

      Gregory’s Girl

      What about the penguin?

    83. caz-m says:

      O/T

      Andy-B
      “Gregory’s Girl star John Gordon Sinclair, says I’m a YES man”.

      Cue for, “I Have A Dream”

      youtu.be/dNLyZ17imyM

    84. Andy-B says:

      Lady Susan Rice, may be the chosen to head a new body set up to scrutinise Scottish Government tax forecasts. The Scottish Fiscal Commission will provide impartial and expert public scrutiny, of the Scottish Governments tax forecasts.

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-27476159

    85. JLT says:

      Taysideterrier says:

      And if the markets dip before the referendum you know what they will blame….

      I can’t see it, Taysideterrier. You can’t really hide, or blame Scotland for an increasing property bubble in London. One …it was Mark Carney who highlighted it, and I get the impression he couldn’t give a fig for Osborne or Cameron. His job is simple. Protect Sterling. If he thinks there is a threat to Sterling, then I think Carney will not only just come out and say it, but he will highlight where the problem is.

      But yes …I can just picture it if the media got a hold of it! Yes, absolutely! …it’s a damn disgrace that this Scottish Referendum has caused the London House Prices to rise exponentially this year. My 1 bedroom apartment that cost only £350,000 a year ago is now up to £410,000! Those damned Scots! They are causing great uncertainty that value of property is rising in London. Do they not realise that it’s not easy to get by on £160,000 a year wages!

    86. Andy-B says:

      @caz-m.

      Nice one.

      And dreams come true.

    87. taysideterrier says:

      JLT,

      “But yes …I can just picture it if the media got a hold of it! Yes, absolutely! …it’s a damn disgrace that this Scottish Referendum has caused the London House Prices to rise exponentially this year. My 1 bedroom apartment that cost only £350,000 a year ago is now up to £410,000! Those damned Scots! They are causing great uncertainty that value of property is rising in London. Do they not realise that it’s not easy to get by on £160,000 a year wages!”

      LOL,

      I wasn’t meaning the housing bubble per say, just the “markets” and the “city” in general, the poor poor markets dont like uncertainty…..lol

      Fed up of the tax payers wiping their A*se, the poor city with westminster hanging out their behind.

    88. Andy-B says:

      Are any of these kids YOU? if so the BBC want to speak to you , its regarding the 1979 Scottish Devolution Referendum.

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-26517446

    89. Schrodingers Cat says:

      bookie from hell says:
      Gregory’s Girl

      What about the penguin?

      he grew up, more folk voted for him than the libdems http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/may/04/penguin-more-votes-lib-dems

    90. Albert Herring says:

      “We don’t want to peak too early,but maybe the hidden poll shows we have.”

      We wont peak until we hit 75%+ 😀

    91. Andy-B says:

      Nick Clegg, proclaiming that Alex Salmond and the SNP are living in the past,Mr Clegg did admit that once the nationalists (That’s you and me folks)are defeated,and no wins, that theoretically you could turn the tide of devolution back. A sinister comment in my opinion.

      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/10842303/Nick-Clegg-Alex-Salmond-should-stop-living-in-the-past-and-back-devolution.html

    92. alexicon says:

      O.T Will Alistair Darling rein in his henchmen?

      http://taboard.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=151007

    93. Mealer says:

      How do you get on “off topic” ?

    94. Andy-B says:

      The Secretary of State for anywhere but Scotland,Alistair Carmichael proclaiming, that Alex Salmond will only get one shot at independence, because the “Facebook Generation” are overwhelmingly, against independence.

      Is this true? are Facebook users as Mr Carmichael says overwhelmingly against, independence, or is the Secretary of State for Portsmouth, talking out a hole in his bum.

      http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/476594/Salmond-has-just-one-shot-at-independence-says-Scottish-Secretary

    95. HandandShrimp says:

      Andy-B

      I doubt Alistair Carmichaelmoore knows what social media is much less what the zeitgeist on it is. Is he predicting the end to UK borders or will Brit-Nationalism somehow miraculously survive this revolution?

    96. HandandShrimp says:

      Mealer

      If I had a big pointy stick I could use on the interwebs I would do so…but try this

      http://wingsoverscotland.com/off-topic/

    97. caz-m says:

      alexicon

      That’s a serious assault there. I hope the guy makes a full recovery and the coward that done it is dealt with by the law.

      Things like that make me all the more determined to win this thing.

      And we will!

      Fortune favours the Brave.

    98. scottish_skier says:

      SoSfS: because the “Facebook Generation” are overwhelmingly, against independence.

      Yes has consistently had more facebook likes and more people talking about it on average since the beginning of respective campaigns. And that’s with a hell of a lot of £’s spent by BT on facebook, google and now youtube ads (recent ongoing desperate attempt).

      The social media generation are generation Yes.

      http://www.brandwatch.com/scottishindependencereferendum/

    99. Paula Rose says:

      For those who want to find Off-topic – go to the top of the page, Look for Sealand gazette, go down and look for zany comedy relief – nestled there will be Off-topic, Scotland’s best Indy club.

    100. wee_monsieur says:

      I was cheered at the weekend when my 17 yr old son had 10 pals round for a barbecue: 1 definite No; 1 definite Don’t Know, but swayable; EIGHT Definite Yes! All of them determined to vote. We will get there.

    101. Paula Rose says:

      Truth-bending – is that flowers of the union ditty out yet?

    102. eezy says:

      Is it starting to go too well?
      Note to self….BELIEVE!
      http://eezypeezylemonsqeezy.com/

    103. Thepnr says:

      @wee_monsieur

      My son and his friends are exactly the same. He’s went to school with these guys since primary 1 and he tells me all of them will be voting Yes.

    104. Pin says:

      Lots of people saying how wrong the polls were in 2011. One No voter pointed out to me this is a myth. The polls had SNP for about a month before the election

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011

    105. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      Anybody who entertained any notion that any poll commissioned by any of the multitude of enemies to independence would be honest or accurate needs their head examined.

      “Weighting” allows the polling companies to produce whatever result is demanded of them. As does many other factors. One polling company until recently was using “weighting” which referred to the 2010 General Election result in Scotland which hugely favoured Labour and undermined the SNP and was amending its results to it

      I would be prepared to bet that whatever methodology is used the polling companies to a very considerable extent are contacting a subset of the population which is largely middle aged and upwards and is contacting very few of the online generation or the people living in deprived communities.

      Manipulating opinion polls is the very least they will do to us.
      It would be useful if they were to be widely
      exposed as very dodgy

    106. Marcia says:

      We will be on a roller coaster ride with these opinion polls from now until polling day. Those who have noted voted for the past 2 elections but are going to vote Yes will not register in these polls as they don’t have voting history.

      Decent crowd in Galashiels tonight:

      https://twitter.com/calumrkerr/status/468456732822605826/photo/1

    107. YESGUY says:

      Scrodingers Cat

      Looked back on my post and saw , I was a wee bit out of order about the Rangers fans . Sorry . it was just a comment not meant to offend. Apologies everyone.

    108. Marcia says:

      Sigh! I do need a proof reader. not = noted

    109. Elspeth says:

      Talking of social media (and I confess I may be being paranoid here) .. I posted John Jaffy’s piece on Britain’s secret nuclear weapons store on my Facebook page. It disappeared from my timeline moments later. Gone.

      Thankfully someone had already picked up on it and shared it.

      What is going on? Or do I need to access therapy?

    110. HandandShrimp says:

      Pin

      That is true

      Labour were miles ahead for months and within a week of the formal campaign kicking off they began to lose ground and pretty much imploded in the final three weeks up to the vote. By the day of the vote an SNP win was likely, what was a shock (especially to Labour) was the size of the win. No one expected an overall majority although I am sure Alex had hopes in that direction.

    111. Free at 63! says:

      Fantastic that the teenagers are acting on the positive message and voting Yes.

      I must admit that when AS announced that he wanted to reduce the voting age to 16 I was more than a tad concerned as I was a teacher then. However, I did trust him to be advised by those who had done the research and I sincerely hope that it proves right.

      AC was talking about the 16-24 year group who are on social media and don’t care about borders (?).

      My first post on here in February was about polls and I disagreed with the polls showing women my age group were No. I also think that polls showing the youngest voters have been mis-represented. No prizes for guessing why!

    112. Elspeth says:

      Ouch! Of course it should have read John Jappy. Apologies

    113. Paula Rose says:

      As Free at 63! suggests – how does a polling organisation poll that demographic?

    114. geeo says:

      @Desimond 5.23pm

      “Comical Ali” indeed !!

      I can just picture Ali darling being interviewed after a crushing yes vote and still trying to deny he lost while the last nuclear sub passed in the water behind him sent off by a throng of yes voters singing “cheerio cheerio cheerio”

    115. Free at 63! says:

      Paula – don’t know how the polling companies do it but I do know young people get info from the internet – can’t imagine many of them read a newspaper or watch the news. If parents are voting No – what are rebellious teenagers to do?

    116. Marcia says:

      HandandShrimp

      When the canvassing figures started being inputted in the final 10 days of the 2011 campaign, SNP HQ were sceptical so did independent polling to find that the swing to the SNP was genuine but did not believe they would have the actual swing that was delivered on the day.

    117. Tam Jardine says:

      The polls will be manipulated until the referendum to show the no vote holding up. This is a mixed blessing as it leads to complacency on the soft no side and the supreme effort with not a shade of complacency from Yes.

      Trouble is, for those easily led or simply unable to get their heads round it, and of course those whose opinions are formed by the press, it will distort the no vote. The euros will be a game changer if the expected UKIP surge in England is contrast with a strong SNP and Green showing. And that can’t be weighted.

      Ian Brotherhood

      O/T My wee Samsung can’t cope with the monster that is Off Topic. It’s creaking. Count me in for next Friday if I may.

      Working Fri and Sat but can take the train through and get the late one back. The only contact I have usually is my Yes campaign handler dropping off leaflets so it will be guid to put a face to a few names.

    118. Paula Rose says:

      Free at 63! – do young folk believe older people who believe that the UK is an exemplar nation?

    119. galamcennalath says:

      “Pin says:
      Lots of people saying how wrong the polls were in 2011. One No voter pointed out to me this is a myth. The polls had SNP for about a month before the election
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011

      The polls weren’t far out with the constituency vote. They were well out on the regional list vote. Clearly shown on wiki.

      People often claim they were simply wrong. That is over simplification. My understanding is that 2011 polling proves they aren’t good at prediction in more complex situations. They are gear up to old first past the post. I suppose the relevance to the referendum is … It isn’t multiple party first past the post either.

    120. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      HandandShrimp

      What will happen is what did happen in the run in to the 2011 election.
      Polling companies will cover themselves by producing a swing to YES because that is what they know has happened.
      That is exactly what they did in 2011.
      I knew we were winning well a long way out.

      Do not underestimate how big a disaster a YES win would be to UK or underestimate what lengths they will go to block it. Manipulated polls were a total certainty as soon as they released their assumption of a cosy NO win was not on.

    121. Paula Rose says:

      Hey Rev – can us youngsters wot use noo media have a noo off-topic each monf?

    122. Croompenstein says:

      @Les Wilson – read and shared, enough to make you weep, I will never understand anyone who reads these and still votes no

    123. Haggis says:

      I have to wonder why they do this? Are they hoping to make people give up on Yes as a lost cause by lying ever more outrageously or is it a desperate attempt to stop people abandoning their own cause and the funding drying up?

    124. galamcennalath says:

      “Dave McEwan Hill says:
      Do not underestimate how big a disaster a YES win would be to UK or underestimate what lengths they will go to block it. ”

      A very sobering thought indeed!

    125. caz-m says:

      Marcia

      What a turn out. Do you have a bit more detail on who was speaking etc… more pics or vids.

      Before and after polls?

    126. Les Wilson says:

      Croompenstein says:

      Hi
      I know, who in their right minds would vote no. However, these are very big issues. We need to try and get them out, I do not do facebook or twitter, so I hope those who do send these articles far and wide.

      Because this is such an issue, I think the SG should be making them more public, I cannot imagine that if enough see and read them that it would not add to the YES momentum. They also have a duty to inform everyone about these dangers.In my view, of course.

    127. Martin says:

      I’m actually all in favour of them spinning the polls to show a false No lead. Makes for a lower turnout amongst the No voters.

    128. Free at 63! says:

      Paula – I don’t think young people ever believe the older generation. I was just turned 17 when Winnie Ewing won Hamilton and I had never heard of SNP until then but I thought independence was a good idea much to the dismay of my parents, especially my father who was a red-hot Labour supporter.

    129. Calgacus MacAndrews says:

      @galamcennalath says:
      “Dave McEwan Hill says:
      Do not underestimate how big a disaster a YES win would be UK or underestimate what lengths they will go to block it. ”
      A very sobering thought indeed!

      John Jappy’s words on how oil has propped-up the UK economy tell you exactly how big a disaster a YES win will be for them:

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tUduiJL1f6s

    130. Paula Rose says:

      Free at 63! – I used to take my grandparents advice – what’s going on?

    131. Marcia says:

      Caz-m

      The speakers for the Yes Borders event

      https://twitter.com/calumrkerr/status/468504220803411970/photo/1

    132. orri says:

      As far as I can tell there are at least 4 groups it’d be difficult for any polling organisation to adjust their demographics for.
      16 and 17 year olds won’t have voted in any prior election.
      Those who didn’t vote due either a sense of apathy or complacency.
      Those who “missremember” their previous votes.
      Those who can vote in Holyrood but not in Westminster elections, ie EU citizens.

      On the other hand Ashcroft Polls need to be taken with a pinch of salt as I remember one that simply added an extra question to a previous attitude survey and then got itself published as showing no movement.

    133. Thepnr says:

      @Free at 63!

      Parents eh!

      Was the same for me in the 1979 devolution referendum. I was a Yes my old man a very solid NO. I let him talk me out of it too. Something to do with National Service I think and the friends you made.

      Today is different, I have many English friends and family living there, this vote has nothing to do with that. For me it’s all about representation and the quality of government we elect.

      Westminster, big business and bankers are too cosy with each other for my liking. I want a government that represents the electorate. I will vote Yes for I believe something good will come from that.

    134. Les Wilson says:

      Marcia says:

      Marcia, any idea how the Borders event went?

    135. caz-m says:

      Marcia

      Cheers for that link.

    136. caz-m says:

      Wings got another mention on Newsnight Scotland.

    137. haud on the noo says:

      Both my parents were labour, council estate in stirling, just the way it was back early 70s. From age of 12/13 I knew independence was for me, don’t recall where it came from but I was very passionate and shimmied up lampposts all over stirling ripping down Tory posters come election time.. childish I know.

      After a few years both mum and dad are SNP also, both died last year sadly so cannot see Septembers yes. This means so much to me, and I know, a huge number of others on here and around our great country. Vote YES please.

    138. TJenny says:

      Ooh – So exciting – WOS front page showing this article, which was querying what the polls were showing, in paper(?) review at end of Newsnicht. 🙂

      Knew WOS had been on before but never witnessed the phenomenon as I don’t usually watch Newsnict.

      The truth IS out there and you can find it on WOS.

    139. Marcia says:

      Les,

      Sorry but cannot find any more info on the Gala meeting. The local Yes group are going to upload the video of the meeting shortly. I take that to be a couple of days.

    140. Archie [not Erchie] says:

      @ T Jenny – Saw it and jaw dropped. Smiling so much now that even Paula Rose in strappy sandals could not humour me more. 🙂

    141. ronnie anderson says:

      What was that Gary Robertson said, the Yes campain except that BT are in the lead with those graphs from WoS.

    142. Dr Ew says:

      Given the high level threat to the UK state, should we really expect honest, balanced polls any more than we expect honest, balanced reporting by state TV or honest, respectful campaigning from the vested interests? Supression of poll data, distortion of polling samples and questions, skewed coverage and analysis… no alarms and no surprises here.

      Yes, I am concerned some undecided folk will put too much stock in opinion polls and fearmongering media coverage to vote positively on 18th September. That said, we always knew the state apparatus would work ruthlessly and covertly against us so let’s emphasise what we have got going for us:
      – We have THOUSANDS out there on the streets and workplaces countering the lies and distortions with hope, commitment and a robustly positive case for independence.
      – We have THOUSANDS more footsoldiers than the opposition… and we’re motivated and mobilised in ways they cannot begin to comprehend.
      – For once, thanks to great good fortune of an ordinary working-class family called the Weirs and their genorsity in sharing that good fortune with the rest of us, we can match the political establishment pound for pound in campaign spending.
      – All the black ops, disinformation and tomorrow-flavoured jam they can muster cannot alter the fact they are caught in a growing maelstrom of events… a lurch to the right down south, a close and closing General Election, popular contempt for Parliament, politicians and parties – all while trying to sustain a corrupt and creaking system nearing a state of near collapse.

      Regardless of their polls and their commentary, reality is biting and biting hard: “You cannot fool all of the people all of the time”, as Abe once said. So don’t be upset by polls, or lose your cool over barefaced lies, because I’m going to let you into a wee secret…

      We’re going to win.

    143. sausage fingered luddite says:

      Scotland Tonight had Severin from guardian on to give his “analysis” ahead of Thursday’s Euro election. Without quoting word for word, I can sum up his expert view as – we’ll need to wait and see how it goes on the day.

      Pure quality journalism…

    144. caz=m says:

      Ronnie

      Are wondering what Gary Robertson said??

    145. Les Wilson says:

      Marcia
      Thanks anyway, appreciated.

    146. Cactus says:

      Yeah, on the BetTog graphic posted above, regardless of the alleged percentage results.. it should be mandatory for all of these polls to print the time period it was carried out from/to and the confirmed sample count, anything less is just hearsay!

      With regards to voter turnout for our independence referendum, I imagine there will be a large percentage of people who have never voted before that WILL vote YES only once, then never again, their sole motivation being the removal of the Three-Dent weapons of mass destruction.

      It’s now time to get some voting practice in for our big day Scotland, so get yourself down to your allocated polling station on Thursday for the European showdown.

      Unfortunately none of you 16 or 17 year olds get a shot voting on this one, but you’ll get your first chance to do so in less than four months from now. Choose wisely and do it for your siblings.

    147. fitheach says:

      Here is something to cheer up everyone (not that you need it). UHI debate in Fort William with Dave Thompson MSP vs Charles Kennedy MP

      63 Yes
      25 No
      2 Undecided

      http://yeshighland.net/uhi

    148. Thepnr says:

      @Cactus

      I second that, lets ALL turnout and vote for pro-indy paties.

      Gie them a skelp before September!

    149. tartanpigsy says:

      @Dr Ew
      Exactly,
      word for word,
      top to bottom.

      that’s where we’re at.

      They’re bricking it. 😉

    150. john king says:

      Paula Rose says
      “Hey Rev – can us youngsters wot use noo media have a noo off-topic each monf?”

      Your avin a larf mate
      Youngsters?
      snigger, in your dreams 🙂

      Yes the youngsters can have their own off topic but you have to talk with a scouse accent, eh, eh?

    151. Kyle Mackay says:

      fitheach, that’s great to hear, thanks for posting about it.

      It’s a shame more of these debates don’t ask before aswell as after. It’s great to hear about all the Yes wins but it’s so nice to see the swing from No and don’t know to Yes in just one debate 🙂

    152. macdoc says:

      These polls worry me. Lets be honest we want to be ahead rather than behind. We all get excited when we close the gap and then when they widen say they aren’t reliable. Although I wouldnt put any dirty tricks past Westminster I know that most people still haven’t got a clue into the arguments. And this is completely down to the media.

    153. Famous15 says:

      Polls do not say it all. I detect a frustration with Better Together supporters ,bordering on hysteria. They are increasing the loudness in their arguments as those who attempt to get understanding from a Spamish shop assistant think that shouting compensates for their own lack of knowledge.

      I take an almost perverse pleasure in increasing my calmness and friendliness in the face of their stridency and calmly explain the joys of independence and indeed the challenges which we will have the pleasure of resolving.

    154. Famous15 says:

      We see the phenomenon in Spanish as well as those who spam!,,

    155. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      @scottish_skier

      Generation Yes

      Great slogan and would look on a badge,

      Very hip?

    156. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      Famous 15

      Did you used to have a blog, years ago, of the same name?

    157. flirb says:

      George Monbiot says “yes”, and I wish the issue he discusses here would get more attention: http://www.monbiot.com/2014/05/19/highland-spring/

    158. caz-m says:

      Larry (A luv Labour) Flanagan, EIS teachers Union Leader, mixing it up again on GMS. He must have had a wee phone call from our other famous Scottish teacher Johann Lamont.

      Threatening strike action if his poor over worked teachers don’t get everything they are asking for.

      He did mention that they like the fully funded, six weeks summer holiday that they get. (Plus all the other holidays that they get).

      All we are getting here is another piece of Scottish Government bashing.

      Which plays into the Better Together, Project Fear merry-go-round.

      The hard-hitting interview was carried out by Gary Robertson.(snigger)

    159. caz-m says:

      Bugger (the Panda),

      Here is a bit more info on “Generation Yes”. The youth of Scotland.

      http://yesscotland.net/interest-groups/youth-and-students

    160. Aikenheed says:

      Talking of bending the truth here’s yet another reason to vote YES and to beware of the British state
      http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2014/05/the-blair-bush-letters/

    161. Ken500 says:

      Flanagan is totally out of touch with the EIS members. They have to refused to strike every time he tries to instigate a strike against the Scottish Gov. Who elected him? The teachers can see through him.

      Who elects Davidson to decide Scottish Gov policy? ‘Room tax’. Trying to stir up trouble for the Scottish Gov. People can see through his duplicitate actions. Out of touch, out of sight. Soon out of time and out of sight. Westminster fat cats.

      The wealth of the wealthiest has risen 15% in a year, including Westminster members. The vulnerable are being sanctioned and have to walk miles to food banks. Do not be fooled again, Vote YES.

    162. Bugger (the Panda) says:

      caz-m

      Thanks, too obvious not to have been used.

    163. Paul says:

      As already mentioned as many pro Independence supporters should vote this week as a show of strength.

    164. fitheach says:

      @Kyle Mackay
      It’s a shame more of these debates don’t ask before as well as after.

      It is nice to see people moving from No to Yes after being exposed to the facts which is why most Yes organised events take votes before and after. The UHI event was hosted by the university and organised by the students not Yes.The students did a great job too!

      Also of note was Charles Kennedy’s stance on lots of the issues; not much difference between him and Dave Thompson. One person after the debate said “it was almost like having two Yes people up there”.

      Could CK be positioning himself?

    165. Ken500 says:

      Monbiot misses the point. The equivalent of £Billions being secretly defrauded from Scotland which has depopulated Scotland, rendering the land to be useless. Monbiot has his own agenda and is trying to use Scotland to endorse his ‘Green’ arguments. Reducing subsidies would put up the price of food, affecting the poorest, and could depopulate the lands even further. Tax evasion is the problem.

      Doubt if Monbiot would approve of the misuse of the Oil revenues.

    166. Ken500 says:

      Charles Kennedy has love in’s with Michael Gove disgusting.

    167. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      By peculiar coincidence (or by dastardly plan) a couple of the bookies have moved the YES vote odds out again. It is now 3/1 Yes from Ladbrokes and Paddy Power. This could be because the NO vote at more attractive odds has brought in some money or because the bookies have been fed the polls mince or because they are playing the game with those behind Better Together.
      Whatever – 3/1 is a very generous offer if anybody want to take it

    168. desimond says:

      O/T Tommy Sheridan speaking at ‘Rutherglen Undecided’ event “Hope vs Fear” at The Glencairn Club 19:00pm Tuesday 3rd June. If youre near, please try and get any person of doubt in attendance.

    169. Ken500 says:

      The bookies odds are based on risks. They have Risks Managers (Stocks Market?) The Odds are decided on monies placed on outcome, not just an indicater of the Polls. The Referendum is Unique. The Bookie Office staff actually phone the Risk Managers (London?) for Odds, before some punters can put a (relatively small) bet on. ie YES or No, and hedge their bets. Multiply £Million business. The odds – balance is decided on the bets placed and the monies taken in. The Bookies suspend betting (close), so the Risk Mangers can revaluate the Odds. Betting is then recommenced.

      The Bookies always win!

    170. cynicalHighlander says:

      Benet Brandreth argues that our current political discourse is bankrupt, so he proposes a novel solution: a legislature by lot

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0418p80

    171. fitheach says:

      @Ken500

      Re: Kennedy and Gove – I really, really hope you are speaking figuratively 😉

      Did CK speak in favour of “free” schools or something?

    172. Ian Brotherhood says:

      The John Jappy ‘Hiding the Truth’ video is going like a train. If there’s any 5-minute chunk of anything which is more likely to turn No to Yes, I can’t think what it is.

      Was at 222 views on Sunday evening. Now 5,646 –

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TG8uLTaicIY

    173. Ian Brotherhood says:

      Another Indiegogo appeal, but this time it’s oor ain Thistle! – clock’s ticking folks, let’s do it:

      https://www.indiegogo.com/projects/scottish-independence-live-events

    174. caz-m says:

      Nana Smith

      Is the debate with Carmicheal in Stirling, live on the radio or is it getting filmed by anyone?

    175. Ian Brotherhood says:

      P.S. There’s just £15 in the pot so far…

    176. caz-m says:

      O/T

      Vote Pro-Indy Party on Thursday in the Euro Elections..

      Keep UKIP out.

      All other Unionist Parties would put up barriers to us becoming a full Independent member state.

    177. X_Sticks says:

      Thanks for the heads up Ian, donation made.

    178. desimond says:

      Anyone else getting tired of all these reports on so called experts asking for “every tiny tiny tiny tiny detail” on everything and anything post a Yes vote.

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27485018

      How the feck these people even choose something for breakfast is beyond me “Hmm..the cereal looks nice but I wonder what shade of yellow was the corn used in the flakes….and as for the toast..dont get me started!”

    179. caz-m says:

      Ian Brotherhood,

      Stuck a wee tenner into that fundraiser there Ian.

      Every little helps.

    180. Nana Smith says:

      @caz-m

      Says central FM between 11am and 12 in the details

    181. galamcennalath says:

      caz-m says:
      Vote Pro-Indy Party on Thursday in the Euro Elections..
      Keep UKIP out.

      Without going over polls and their trustworthiness … indications are that the fight for the current EU Liberal seat will be between SNP and UKIP. Other Pro-Indy parties don’t seem to be in a position to challenge for the seat.

      I’m not making a pitch for an SNP vote specifically, just pointing out that people need to think about which party is most likely to stop UKIP taking the seat.

      Funny how PR is supposed to stop tactical voting. It doesn’t, does it?

    182. caz-m says:

      Nana Smith

      Thanks for that, I wasn’t sure if the Radio station were just advertising the event or were they actually going to broadcast it as well.

      Will tune in at 11am to Central FM and find out.

    183. Les Wilson says:

      Ian Brotherhood,
      “The John Jappy ‘Hiding the Truth’ video is going like a train.”

      Ian if you have not read Jappy’s articles on Nuclear issues
      ( I posted individual links on last article )
      If anything these are even greater reason to vote yes, they are truly frightening. I suggest you look at them, and help get these out there too. Cheers.

    184. Meindevon says:

      @ Ian brotherhood

      Sent a small amount to help!

    185. Calgacus MacAndrews says:

      I’ve changed my mind.

      I’m gonnae vote NAW now.

      What did it for me was Dave & Samantha Cameron hiring a Scottish nanny : http://archive.today/Cy63B

    186. Ravelin says:

      Am I missing something in this story on the BBC website?

      Scottish independence: Deaf voters critical of referendum campaigners
      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27327187

      I quote…

      It found that, as well as the 29 sign language DVDs, there had been eight ordered in Braille along with 54 audio copies.

      Mr Denerley said: “It’s ridiculous, shocking, and frankly embarrassing only 29 copies have been ordered.

      “You’re talking about over 5,000 British Sign Language (BSL) users in Scotland, and that shows there’s been no publicity around these alternative versions of the White Paper.

      I don’t know how well alternative versions of the Whitepaper have been publicised but come on…I assume the vast majority of those 5000 BSL users can read (being deaf doesn’t, as far as I’m aware, mean you can’t learn to read), so have equal access to the ‘normal’ version of the whitepaper and other referendum material.

    187. geeo says:

      O/t and apologies for that but got to ask, if the oil and gas has 5 years left according to the previously highlighted BBC story, then why bother with this ?

      http://m.stv.tv/news/275857-oil-and-gas-leaders-to-hold-tax-talks-with-treasury-secretary/

    188. Bill McLean says:

      Just re-read John Jappy’s “BBC accused of “Bias by silence” and decided to send a text to BBC Scotland in case they had missed the article –
      “Bill, Dunfermline – Have just read an article from the Financial Times outlining how successful an independent Scotland will be. Dated 2 February 2014. Surely BBC “Scotland” is interested in broadcasting good news of a bright successful future for the people?”
      Why let these purveyors of , deviousness and distortion, have an easy time.

    189. geeo says:

      @ Calgacus MacAndrews

      Are you sure you heard right?
      Maybe he actually said, “i regret hiring that scottish f***y”
      Talking of which, where is the inglorious BT mouthpiece,?

    190. Nana Smith says:

      @caz-m

      Hope you get to listen and as I am unable to would you try to post some of the conversation. Perhaps for once Carmichael might tell a few truths….hahahahaha

    191. Liquid Lenny says:

      fitheach

      Thanks for posting that, more ammunition to SS’s theory on 63% Yes vote

      http://yeshighland.net/newsletter/wildfire/archive/2014/5/19/stunning-win-yes-uhi/

    192. Ravelin says:

      @Liquid Lenny

      Those vote figures add up to 90, so I’m assuming that it is an actual count presented not a percentage. If so the 63 actually represents 70% Yes so SS is being overly cautious. ;>)

    193. Mary Bruce says:

      @Calgacus; “Cameron shows union ties by hiring Scottish nanny.”

      Christ, are we all supposed to be grateful for this? Headline could equally read “Ruling elite in London hire Scottish servant.”

    194. Les Wilson says:

      geeo says:

      I remember back in 79, it was ten years! So do not worry, they can’t count!

    195. Herr Kohler says:

      Forgot the polls – the bookies’ money is decisively on a No vote

    196. fitheach says:

      @Ravelin

      You are correct these were absolute numbers not percentages.

    197. caz-m says:

      galamcennalath

      I agree with you, vote SNP on Thursday, but I also didn’t want to push it.

    198. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “Forgot the polls – the bookies’ money is decisively on a No vote”

      The odds on a Yes have come in from 7/1 last year to around 5/2 recently. Long way to go yet.

    199. Gregor says:

      How many of us have actually taken part in a BT poll do they only poll their employees, friends, newapapers, BBC, ITV/STV are they actually done in Scotland or throughout the UK?
      I am just curious because I or anyone I know have never been asked to partake in a poll.

    200. JohnDM says:

      I really do hate polls!

      After downloading the ICM Poll data and porting it into excel, then comparing the raw data with the 2011 Census, it’s clear to see the potential misinformation provided in a poll.

      For example only 39% of people are in FT Work (2011 Census), as this group are less likely to vote yes, the ICM poll has this at 47% of total respondents – There are many of these examples in the poll – which makes me realise how serious to take these – I have downloaded the Census ACTUAL records and can use this now as a benchmark for any future polls. Although I have a feeling they are all as manipulative.

      J

    201. Marker Post says:

      Doesn’t Better Together do graphs? That poster is horrible (apart from the lies)

    202. colin young says:

      My family are all deaf if i was not they would have no information regards indy.
      There are a large number of deaf people in Scotland not getting info.

      For example my mum wanted to find out info so she got an ipad which i set up for her to watch videos on independence which was a waste of time as youtube do not have subtitles,yes of course the deaf can read but if there is no subtitling then you are reduced to the poor science of lip reading.

      All the money donated by the weirs should cover costs of interpreters or subtitled videos.
      Sheesh.



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