Wings Over Scotland

With little in the way of news to chew on, the Scottish political blogosphere has begun to eat itself of late, with an exhausting number of articles on popular sites about how an SNP list vote is a wasted vote and anyone thinking of voting for the Nats in both constituency and region is a deluded cultist/simple-witted idiot (mostly written by candidates/supporters of other parties who are often not identified as such), and now some angry pieces from disgruntled SNP supporters making the opposite point.

All are based, from one perspective or another, on opinion polls and seat predictions based on those polls, some of which appear to be based on very shaky premises.

We’ve already broken down the mechanics of the Scottish electoral system at very considerable length, so readers will be relieved that we’re not going to get into that again. Instead, we thought we’d take a very specific region-by-region look at the scale of the task facing the fringe parties.

Read the rest of this entry →

For ages now it’s been nagging at us that there wasn’t a quick and easy reference point for all the opinion polls we’ve commissioned, listing all the subjects covered by each poll and linking to both our own analyses of the figures and the raw data tables for people who wanted to go delving in amongst the stats themselves.

So now there is – it’s here. (And in future you can easily locate it under “Polls” in the menu bar running across the top of the front page.) We’re off for a bit of a lie down.

Number 2 in a series.

We thought we might leave this here so that Scottish journalists could print it out and stick it on their monitors as a memory aid. It’s something they keep unaccountably forgetting for some reason.

You never know, it might just cheer them up a bit.

Joan McAlpine, SNP MSP for the South of Scotland, extensively documented at the weekend the obstructiveness of Labour councillors in Dumfries and Galloway, who in an attempt to score some SNP BAD points were refusing to inform their constituents about the Scottish Government’s £1500-per-household flood relief grants to help people cope after recent storms.

The councillors eventually backed down and informed hard-pressed householders and businesses of the help available, but today the issue was debated on the floor of the Holyrood chamber, and when Labour once again tried to make the issue party political, the Deputy First Minister ran out of patience.

We had a lot of requests for the footage, so there it is.

Despite what you may have read in the newspapers at the weekend (and then in the Daily Record a day later), Scotland was today rocked by the news that the SNP’s manifesto for this May’s general election in fact DOES contain a commitment to a second independence referendum within the term of the coming Scottish Parliament.

Who says so? Why, it’s Oliver Mundell, son of the only Conservative MP in Scotland and the Scottish Tory candidate for the Holyrood seat of Dumfriesshire, in a leaflet hitting the doorsteps of constituents in the Borders today.

So, y’know, that must be true.

We called it early.

In the end it took almost exactly four hours.

Read the rest of this entry →

From a speech by David Mundell today:

This is what a man who REALLY doesn’t want to answer a question looks like.

Read the rest of this entry →

As we noted on Tuesday, Scottish Labour’s opening election salvo for 2016 has been to blame the Scottish Government for unaffordable house prices.

Of the 450 most obvious flaws in that argument, not least the extraordinary efforts a 13-year Labour government went to to keep the housing bubble inflated, the one that caught our eye was that in the past three years we were regularly told of one thing that definitely WOULD bring prices down dramatically, but which Labour pathologically fought every step of the way.

Read the rest of this entry →

(And the rest of the “pro-indy left”.)

If you’re primarily or solely contesting regional seats, and you’re chiefly (as seems to be the case) targeting people who are going to use their first vote for the SNP, “Vote for us so that we can provide strong opposition to the SNP” is a pretty weird pitch.

You’re basically asking people to use their second vote to cancel out their first. And that’s quite a tough angle to be trying to sell them. Just saying, like.

We suppose we shouldn’t technically be surprised that today’s newspapers carry no analysis whatsoever of Kezia Dugdale’s big speech yesterday detailing Scottish Labour’s first big election pledge – a £6000 handout to first-time home buyers.

After all, current polling suggests Scottish Labour have about as much chance of exerting any influence in the next Scottish Parliament as Lemmy has of posthumously winning the Eurovision Song Contest, so it doesn’t really matter if Kezia Dugdale promises every voter a free unicorn made of diamonds and glitter.

Still, if only for the mental exercise, it’s worth taking a look in detail.

Read the rest of this entry →