The asteroid approaches
We thought you might be interested to see some of the working of this post from yesterday. Of the 2.4m votes cast in Scotland in the 2010 UK general election, not far short of a million – if a recent YouGov poll is to be believed – are currently likely to be cast for different parties in 2015. And it’s intriguing to see where they’ll go.
NB The poll had an “Other” category which didn’t specify UKIP, Green, SSP etc. The overall split of those three parties’ votes broke down in a ratio of 6:4:1 (in that order), but there was no mechanism for determining whether, say, Labour voters planned to defect more to Green/SSP and Tory voters to UKIP. So readers will have to make that judgement for themselves.
PROJECTED DESTINATION OF 2010 LABOUR VOTES IN 2015
Labour: 579,896 (56%)
SNP: 331,369
Other: 72,487
Conservative: 51,776
Lib Dem: 10,355
For all Labour’s endless decades of screaming “Tartan Tories!” at the Nats, the fact is that the latter remain the first port of call for dissatisfied Labour voters, picking up more than six times as many Labour defectors as the Conservatives.
PROJECTED DESTINATION OF 2010 SNP VOTES IN 2015
SNP: 402,397 (82%)
Other: 34,397
Conservative: 34,397
Labour: 19,655
Lib Dem: 0
While Labour has shed over 40% of its vote, the SNP holds onto more than 80% of the people who backed it in 2010, with the rest splitting reasonably evenly between everyone else except the poor old Lib Dems.
PROJECTED DESTINATION OF 2010 LIB DEM VOTES IN 2015
SNP: 195,498
Lib Dem: 97,749 (21%)
Other: 88,439
Labour: 65,166
Conservative: 23,274
Oooft. You know it’s bad when you can’t even take the highest vote share among your own supporters. In fact, twice as many Lib Dem voters from 2010 plan to defect to the SNP next year as to stay with Nick Clegg’s dead party walking. Labour can’t even manage third place, and we honestly wouldn’t like to speculate about the UKIP/Green split among the “Other” section.
PROJECTED DESTINATION OF 2010 CONSERVATIVE VOTES IN 2015
Conservative: 280,741 (68%)
Other: 57,800
Labour: 37,156
SNP: 28,900
Lib Dem: 12,386
On the other hand, we suspect we can make a pretty good stab at which horse Tory defectors to “Other” will be backing. But it’s worth noting that more former Tories find Labour a better fit for a switch than the SNP. And interestingly, the Tories pick up almost twice as many votes from their coalition partners as move the other way. Because people tend to hate the bully’s toady more than they hate the actual bully.
It’s remarkable that the party which has carried the burden of government for seven and a half years – pretty much all of it through a tough recession – appears to have by a considerable distance the most loyal voters. Conversely, for the main opposition party, free of responsibility on either side of the border, to have driven away close to half of its own support is an astonishing feat of incompetence.
(A survey this month by the Unite trade union produced even worse findings, with an astounding 54% of 2010 Labour voters – at least those defined by unspecified criteria as “working people” – saying they didn’t expect to vote Labour again next year.)
But perhaps the most striking fact about these figures is that Labour isn’t the first choice for defectors from ANY of the other parties. The SNP and “Others” hoover up the biggest share of vote-switchers across the board, and – combined with the UKIP phenomenon south of the border – that could be a sign of the most radical change in UK politics in living memory.
After several false dawns, the UK may finally be about to witness the extinction event marking the end of the two-party dinosaur age.
Like the Libdems, nobody knows what the current Labour party is for
An ideal time then for wee Ed Miliband and London Labour to impose a right-wing ultra-Blarite westminster placeman on their London branch office. 😀
What’s the difference between England and Scotland?
In Scotland, the dinos sink.
In England, the dinos soar.
If my calculations are correct then of that almost 1 million over 550,000 are switching to the SNP. That’ll do nicely!
Come on blue Tories, your red Tories need you. And lets face it blue tories, you really owe the red tories like Jim Murphy and Bliar MacFatboy everything in Scotland.
We must all do every last thing that we can to make these possibilities real !
Don’t miss that meeting.
Don’t leave it to someone else.
Be part of a new, better future.
Seize the ‘moment’ – from now to next May !
Great stuff Stu. But I’ll have to see this analysis repeated over the next 6 months before I will truly believe Scots who normally would vote for a ‘monkey with a red rosette’ really have changed. What odds could we get now I wonder? I need to try to get my wager on Yes back!!
Interesting numbers Rev, now how and when are the MSM going to leap to Labours defense, after all, Westminster would rather the devil they know !
I’m now seeing friends in the South of england previously Labour supporters posting “what is Labour for” type stuff, it’s not just us.
Had to laugh at the Lib Dem figures, I thought it was a misprint at first!
That’s the whole problem with the Red Tories. They are no longer even a political party, just a facade, an empty core. Any normal party would change its policies, not the leader… And who is Jim Murphy going to attract voters from? Possibly only Tories and we see they are pretty loyal anyway (because they are so small in number from the start).
Shame we can’t get a breakdown of the “other”… I suspect rather a lot of Blue Tories going to the Purple Tories, but for Labour I would think the figure would tend to be more to our friends in the Greens and the SSP.
Great piece of analysis.
Clearly the Conservative party is where we find the hard core Unionist vote. Which shouldn’t surprise anyone. And, as shown above, when they plan to move it’s much more likely to be another Unionist party.
Liberals are the opposite. They are the least Unionist orientated and will shift to SNP.
And, then there’s Labour. Like the Libs they will easily move to SNP, however you can see a fair chunk going to Tory and Other. That probably means other Unionist. Is Other UKIP or SSP? I fear UKIP! I suppose the BIG question is why are half still planning to vote Labour!?
Lastly, there are some small groups of very odd people around. Move Con to Lib … After the events of recent years? Why!?
I preferred the movie where Godzilla bent Big Ben and rampaged through London, much more effective than the Wolfe Man or Labour doggy bag scavengers.
Please make every effort to push the SNP vote as we pushed the YES vote.
I know it may not be a perfect fit for everyone but the power of 40+ seats at Westminster can only be good for Scotland. This is the election that makes real power possible by keeping up the pressure.
It also reduces the chance of Barnett cuts(we will get cuts as all the main Westminster parties have signed up for that – I mean major restructuring)
I want Independence but if Labour gets a large vote Westminster will take it as a sign to sit back and ignore Scotland.
The collapse in the Lib Dem vote is encouraging because Other is quite high and, given that further down comes first Labour and then Tories, one would think that Lib Dem voters would desert to the Greens and SSP, Greens certainly, rather than UKIP….
They are not extinct yet.
There is a danger of the SNP/Greens/SSP peaking too early. The inevitable BBC Labour fightback campaign early next year will be ferocious. Against the full weight of our enemy, we will have to fight very clever. The referendum battle took place over a huge front line (the entire country no less), but for the GE, specific seats should be targeted and resources concentrated for any chance of success. Alliances will be required, big names selected to run for election and new ways of reaching and informing the key groups of voters will be required. There is no point in spreading our resources over the entire country and increasing the indy/more powers vote overall, but ending up with no gains on a FPTP contest. With a bit of luck, a good strategy and a huge amount of effort, it may be possible to win at least 10 Red Tory seats in 2015. Anything more is extremely difficult IMO. However, any serious inroads into their central belt heartlands would ultimately prove fatal for the Red Tory party.
This is another reason why I think it is imperative that the SNP also begins to think nationally in terms of an alliance with other like-minded parties (Greens, PC, Irish Nationalists). The Labour vote appears to be collapsing in England also and it is imperative that the SNP is seen to be able to command even more voting power at WM, else some people might just cling onto the Red Tory vote…. This is the perfect time for an anti-dinosaur (meaning anti-establishment and, for us, anti-unionist) bloc to emerge… Does not have to be official, just a common agreement to work together, consult each other… I see no reasons for any major policy splits anyway.
Good news for the SNP, but if 51,776 Labour voters are going to switch to Tory and
37,156 Tories are going switch to Labour, the question is why?
A couple of possible explanations:
1.They believe there is no difference in policies between Labour and Tory so it doesn’t matter which one they vote for
2.They have a hatred of the SNP and will vote for their best pals in Better Together UK Alliance
If these polls continue in the same vein, there will more MP’s manoeuvring for position. My money is on the Alexander Brothers, Dougie and Danny to be the first to squirm around looking for an opening somewhere.
As the Tories are finding down south,you can only get the voters vote for the same promises so many times before the voters switch in numbers.
Since Labour is the most anti-devolution of the British parties, it could have a future as the Scottish Regionalist Party. Murphy is the ideal man to take them on that journey of uber-britification.
Not sure it’s a huge vote winner, mind you.
Luigi, you are right, they are not extinct yet. But what is important is that the process is underway. We obviously want what is best for our country and, while I would rather have indy now, if it takes another five, ten (even twenty, yikes!) years, then just so long as indy lasts for ever and ever, then I am happy. If this involves chipping away percentage point by percentage point, then that is fine with me.
The first living being I saw on that horrible morn, 19 September, was a spider — and I recalled the legend that all Scots know of this animal. The process is underway and all we need to do is keep marching… until we look around and see we are at long last marching on our own independent land!
The question should not be how many may defect to vote SNP. The question should be why and to achieve what in a GE and for Scotland?
The other key part is that the answer matters most from the over 55s.
It seems to me that the ‘defectors’ want a party that will fight for policies in Scotlands interest which British Labour have essentially abandoned as part of the Better together cabal. It looks more defensive than assertive to me.
In the likely event of a Tory lead Westminster the SNP will just be a minority pressure group ignored as much as possible by the UK media regardless of the numbers. It will amount to a ‘feeble’ 30 or 40 or whatever.
However what if the SNP go into the GE looking for a mandate for FFA for example amongst other things. This would at least pull the legs from under the latest commission by bypassing it completely and going to the electorate. When the UK Gov then fails to act it leaves the door open to add another referendum proposal on a Scottish election manifesto, depending on public opinion.
So, at the very least we still need to to know the main reasons for these defections eg. Is it partly guilt after the Referendum, or just to get MPs that that will vote in the Scottish interest, or …?
No matter what, the YES movement and the SNP need to reassure and encourage the older voters and gradually get their opinion to change. As soon as this large group move to 50/50 for independence then a new referendum is on and the road is then clear otherwise we can forget it. Until then it doesn’t matter if Labour totally implodes or not because being better for Scotland than Labour and the rest won’t achieve anything on its own other than the colour of the political map.
Anyone any idea what would motivate 19000 to move from/back to Slab when so many are moving the other way.
I can’t work it out.
Vote for Scottish Labour! Why?
a2 says:
3 November, 2014 at 4:05 pm
I’m now seeing friends in the South of england previously Labour supporters posting “what is Labour for” type stuff, it’s not just us.
Since the referendum All I have heard from my English friends say is Please can the SNP come down here? even more so since Alex Salmond appeared on Question time in Liverpool. Three Friends are actually making plans to “emigrate north” I told them if they did that and brought their politics north they would undo all the good work we were doing. They agreed saying why on earth would we ever trust labour again? The tories have ruined England and labour stood by and watched it happen! So its not just us that cant stand them>
There will be a lot of tactical voting in May. I hope Yes parties quickly decide who’s to stand where and make sure constituency electorates know the score.
The other thing to remember is that the Labour vote is heavily concentrated. It really doesn’t matter if the Labour vote in Caithness is only 56% of what it was in 2010 but when you start looking at Glasgow SW, NE or Kirkcaldy and knock 44% off their vote then a SNP win becomes at least a possibility because there are few Tory or LibDem votes to swing to them to make up for the defections to the SNP.
Try it in your own constituency 🙂
We all know that until May the MSM will be wall-to-wall “How Murphy and Dugdale rescued Scottish Labour.”
Hopefully the electorate will be a bit more savvy next time.
A more powers alliance is a potential vote winner. However, it has to be very clear on what it will and will not do. Eg:
It will fight to secure more powers for Scotland
It will not, under any circumstances, support a Tory minority government.
It will not accept the proposed 10% MP pay rise next year (donate it to charity/foodbanks, anything, but no compliance).
It will not vote on any laws on English only matters.
It will not declare UDI
Ect etc.
A proper list has to be laid out to inform potential voters what they get if they support the alliance.
It’s far too early to speculate on the outcome of the GE, I would err on the side of caution. If the indie-ref told us anything, it was not to believe “our own” self-delusion. As in let’s not get too excited and keep chipping away at unionist lies, then we can laser guide the asteroid to it’s justifiable destination.
Stu…. Where are the majority of Wings readers coming from inside Scotland?
Wherever it is, please you or a reader stand for a seat under Wings over Scotland. We will crowd fund the deposit and canvass them into a complete win.
I am absolutely serious.
We have the power to do this.
We have a bi election on the 27th of this month.
My priority will be getting all my street out to vote SNP and funnily enough there are others willing to help. Scotland is awake and recognises the power of their vote. SNP should win this from a labour.
I think most folk are over their Labour obsession now. The younger ones are very vocal in their support of SNP.
And Skeletor sent up here is only going to increase the number of pissed off Labour voters. Most i speak to hate him. 🙂
More popcorn needed.
@Kenneth McCargow
“Hopefully the electorate will be a bit more savvy next time.”
Hmmm… I wouldn’t bank on it. We need to educate and enlighten every opportunity we get.
[…] The asteroid approaches […]
@No no no…Yes says:
“If these polls continue in the same vein, there will more MP’s manoeuvring for position. My money is on the Alexander Brothers, Dougie and Danny to be the first to squirm around looking for an opening somewhere.”
I suggest Rothesay … a dirima doo a dirima day
Wings BTL comments are a Goldmine of information for MPs, Journalists, Labour worthies and Unionists…
It bothers me that these people ‘see’ our thoughts and aspirations so easily.
Like the dinosaurs the Scottish regional branch of labour looks like experiencing its own Extinction Level Event.
Hey… Great article!
Severin… This is called journalism
McTernan… This is called truthful analysis
Murphy… This is your future (P45)
Dugdale… This is your career choice (shoogly peg)
Cockers… Try and spin this in the telegraph you horrible wee man
Curtice… This is called explaining the numbers without prejudice
YESSERS… This is called the thin end of the wedge.
NO HOPERS… This called your chance for redemption
Milliband… Yer teas oot!! (This will mean nothing to him of course)
Yes guy
Which byelection is that?
What Clootie said.
The only thing that will provide any measure of protection for Scotland’s electorate in the next few years is to send down a WM contingent which carries a credible political threat. A pro indy contingent will help the neighbours play nice and hold a sizeable voting block in the commons. This will ensure horse trading for the unionist parties becomes a necessity.
Great piece of reading but why are so many so negitive with a party that has seen such a large shift in it’s membership?
The SNP were always seen as a third choice behind the big two then over the years became the Second only to Labour Choice because of thier “Anything but the Tories” policy down the years. Now after the referendum it’s starting to appear to many that it’s the ONLY choice. I don’t even think the BBC can hide all the lies and deception. This is a very different campaign now we’re in a General Election, This allows the others to bitch and snipe and if the SNP, Greens and Others are smart they stay out of it and allow the big 3 to tear each other apart whilst they sail on by picking up votes on the way.
Interesting times cometh!
Tried to forget Labour’s labyrinthine shenanigans to regain power and do nothing with it, again, and Scotland’s inability to seize power when it had the chance. Kinda failed:
‘Mr. Turner, Not De Hooch’ – grousebeater-wordpress
Luigi says:
3 November, 2014 at 5:09 pm
A more powers alliance is a potential vote winner. However, it has to be very clear on what it will and will not do. Eg:
It will fight to secure more powers for Scotland
It will not, under any circumstances, support a Tory minority government.
It will not accept the proposed 10% MP pay rise next year (donate it to charity/foodbanks, anything, but no compliance).
It will not vote on any laws on English only matters.
It will not declare UDI
Ect etc.
A proper list has to be laid out to inform potential voters what they get if they support the alliance.
==================================
Two points Luigi.
1. The pay is what it is.
2. UDI – why would we take that off the table. I say let the political strategists work out what to say and not to say. If UDI is deemed to be possible and will not cause a disadvantage, then so be it.
Scotland Unionist politician free by 2016
Vote SNP/Alliance 7/5/15
Independence by 2020
Don’t be cheated again.
A few academics break their contract of employment and sell themselves to the higher bidder and work against Scottish interest. Bite the hand that feeds them. Secrecy and lies.
Curtice, McLaren, Tompkins.
Neither the Greens or SSP tend to run in UK General Ele tions. The SNP are the best aced ckme May different story in 2016.
Also by then Labour will be competely broken if we can secure large number of MPs come May.
@ ‘Comments are a goldmine of information’
Feed ’em disinformation
Let’s keep cool and work for anahilation of Labour in Scotland. They sold us and our country down the river. And they would do it again in a heartbeat to keep power in Westminster.
@ephermaldeception
Good points here IMO. I fully concur with the view that the SNP should campaign in the 2015 GE on a platform of seeking a mandate for FFA/”Devo MAX”. Maybe that would depress their vote to some extent, but I agree that without such a mandate the SNP block could be very easily ignored.
Yes, all very well but the defining “English only matters” is a complex and thorny issue. The definition and stance of the present half-dozen SNP MPs tries to make a moral virtue out of being completely irrelevant to the outcome of any vote, which would we hope is NOT the case after May 2015.
If a pro-maximum powers / Independence / Yes movement slate manages to achieve, say, 30 MPs and hold the “balance of power”, then a declaration of abstentionism means we provide no balance to any power. If, for example, a minority Labour Government could rely on 30 YesMPs for confidence and supply, then we could negotiate a robust deal to maximise devolution of Scottish powers AND facilitate a decided and long overdue leftward shift in the political agenda across the UK.
That would infuriate the Tories / UKIP and their media lackeys, but would also generate serious debate for radical reformation of political structures of the UK, as opposed to the crass, gerrymandered EVEL. Ultimately, a more democratic rUK with a re-energised Left may provide a more reasonable negotiating partner for a devolved fortress Scotland taking the final step to independence, but at the very least the self-righteous Right will be more determined to rid itself of the turbulent Scots.
Whatever the case, declaring on a manifesto not to vote on “English matters” is a hostage to fortune and vulnerable to vicious caricature when we realise that laws for 84% of the population have a profound impact on policies, culture and above all budgets for the remainder of this sceptred isle.
Let’s not throw away an ace before the game even begins.
Don’t worry about an approaching asteroid, I would highly recommend Preperation H or similar from the chemist they get rid of asteroids.
On a serious note, this website is going to be invaluable at the next election.
Most days when politics come up in conversation( every day), I always say to people visit the WOS site.
The red zombies are going to be difficult to wake up to reality, once we start to get through to them they will realise the best way to vote and it won’t be for the red turdies.
Gary
O/T, Just a wee reminder
25,882 and counting…
link to tinyurl.com
Labour voters are deserting in droves, now only 56% of their supporters intend to do so in 2015. My view is that we continue the assault on that 56% and get more to shift to a pro-indy parties.
The easy ones have been won with the vast majority going to SNP which is no surprise. The rest will be far more difficult to move but not impossible. All SNP supporters should talk up the prospects of the Greens and SSP in an Independent Scotland and even for the 2016 elections.
If you can’t persuade them over to supporting SNP at least try and persuade them that their are other parties and policies worth looking at.
Meantime. We get them to vote SNP in 2015 by looking at the bigger picture.
Fascinating – and I guess if the others split 6:4:1 ukip Greens SSP then we can expect a fair number breaking for the SNP in the constituencies where they are not fielding candidates.
What I want to see soon are some new policy ideas from the SNP to galvanise this added support. There is no point basking in the glories of a couple of polls when we all know the press and BBC are the enemies of the yes parties and will have it as their number one priority to erode the support (number 2 being pushing of the Jim and Kez show).
And it can’t be just an effort to stay in the same place – how do we reach out to the more timid groupings who failed at the vital moment?
Number one for me has to be fracking – a total no – brainer (in my mind) that the Scottish Government should be doing all it can to push renewables and rile out fracking if need be by taking the imposition on Scotland to the European Union. It seems insane in such an energy rich country when we are about to build the biggest tidal power station in Europe (the world?).
It also puts the Scottish Government on the side of prosperous homeowners in the central belt, most of whom voted no and many of whom vote conservative but are dead against fracking under their own homes.
And if Westminster gets away with imposing it anyway – its a win from a political point of view and could result in support increasing for indy and the SNP.
We can’t be complacent and certainly can’t be afraid to frighten the horses through new policies – I can’t wait to see the direction Nicola is going to take us in.
The outcome of the Smith Commission will be crucial in how people vote in 2015 GE. We will need to wait until the end of the month, then we will start to see which powers we are getting or not.
And also it will let voters see how hard Labour are willing to push for more powers. If Labour are seen to be dragging their feet and wanting the minimum amount powers, then you will see a reel backlash against them. Making our job a lot easier.
So all we can do meantime is keep exposing their right wing policies AND their potential right wing leaders.
By the time we’re finished with them, they’ll be sorry they won the bloody Referendum.
Our aim ladies and gentlemen is “Total Wipeout”.
Witch queen says:
3 November, 2014 at 6:55 pm
“Let’s keep cool and work for annihilation of Labour in Scotland. They sold us and our country down the river. And they would do it again in a heartbeat to keep power in Westminster.”
Couldn’t agree more.
:large
@Luigi says:
A more powers alliance is a potential vote winner. However, it has to be very clear on what it will and will not do. Eg:
It will fight to secure more powers for Scotland
It will not, under any circumstances, support a Tory minority government.
It will not accept the proposed 10% MP pay rise next year (donate it to charity/foodbanks, anything, but no compliance).
It will not vote on any laws on English only matters.
It will not declare UDI
Ect etc.
A proper list has to be laid out to inform potential voters what they get if they support the alliance.
Good post.
Even if we don’t get a formal alliance, then the SNP should adopt the same principles. UDI is a vote loser – People wanting devo-max only, may not vote SNP unless they had this assurance.
The SNP needs a simple clear message for the GE – to campaign all out for DEVO-MAX under a federal structure, and to protect Scottish interests at Westminster from Red or Blue Tories.
Independence is realistically on hold until we get maximum devolution first, or until it is clear that no more powers will be devolved.
Labour is EXTREMELY weak on the question of further devolution.
Jim Murphy is now refusing to match the Tories in even devolving full income tax. They have BETRAYED Scottish voters after the promises made.
This is their weak spot, and we need to hit them hard on it.
Most Scots voters don’t care about EVEL on issues that don’t concern Scotland, but Labour is terrified of it for their own selfish interests.
Devolving taxes has implications for the Barnett Formula, but that needs reforming anyway to a system based on need.
We need to hit them where it hurts.
DEVOLVED POWERS COMPARISON:
:large
A vote for Labour or a vote for Conservative is a wasted vote.
Mealer
Sorry had to go out.
The bi election for Midlothian East for a council seat it says on the card. peter Boyce mp had to give up because of ill health.
Keeps things ticking along till May. So many want to be involved , who says politics is boring.
A TORY VOTE IS A WASTED VOTE – RED OR BLUE!
link to ianbone.files.wordpress.com
john mcarther is doing a sterling job in motherwell.
link to archive.today
All bets are off about everything at the moment and nobody has a clue about what might happen politically in the very near future.
Can we agree on this and stop suggesting otherwise.
I really see no point in assuming it will be 2020 before we get independence. It could be long before that – or never.
Some years ago Alex Salmond said it would be 2016. Why not?
I must once again object to this deeply unfair comparison of dinosaurs to the New Labour Party.
One group is an obsolete failure whose halcyon days are long gone, known by their dominance by withered geriatric ectothermic elders, their propensity for tearing each other apart to the point of mutual destruction, their complete lack of self-awareness and higher mental functions, and their woeful inadequacy and resistance to adapt in a changing world.
The other group are dinosaurs.
Letter in Irish Times, the Saturday after IndyRef, ‘if at first you don’t secede, try, try, and try again’. I came across WoS, looking for non MSM info on IndyRef. Delighted to see that Scotland is awake at last. Alba Abú
I think there are several issues out with the obvious “more powers” agenda that show how powerless we are. Nicola has flagged up risk of being taken out of EU. Fracking has already been mentioned here and the other one I would suggest is TTIP a, the Free Trade agreement being negotiated behind closed doors between EU and USA. As a “region”, we have no voice in Europe to influence this but I think overall it will be bad.
Threatens NHS a wi big US private health insurers, stops governments from taking public health measures like minimum pricing of alcohol or plain cigarette packaging (or ey can be taken to cleaners through investor state dispute settlement tribunal ISDS). Th North American FTA resulted in massive job losses so I can’t see it brings any real benefits for ordinary people , just the multinationals who are becoming way more powerful that states. We mustn’t hand our sovereignty over to them.
These issues also form common ground with other pro YES and non Indy supporters and show us to be more than a one trick pony.
The General Election in 2015 is a first-past-the-post so it is unlikely that the Greens and other smaller parties etc will stand without the agreement of the SNP. No doubt the party statisticians can identify one or two constituencies where the the SNP has little chance, but these same seats will offer little to others in a Yes Alliance. So I expect the SNP to be the sole party representing the centre-left next May.
@Graeme Doig
People have odd and capricious breaking points. I have heard some give very strange reasons why they have fallen out with party X. Remember there are a lot of people out there who do actually believe in conspiracy theories and see politics through those lenses. 19,000 is less than 1% of the electorate and will be spread out all over the place. Don’t sweat it and don’t try and follow them down their respective rabbit holes in search of reasons. I’ve been there and it is not pretty. I met a few like that voting Yes on the doorstep too. I just smiled and agreed and moved on. Every vote counted and the deluded get to vote too.
[…] We thought you might be interested to see some of the working of this post from yesterday. Of the 2.4m votes cast in Scotland in the 2010 UK general election, not far short of a million – if a recent YouGov poll is to be believed – are currently likely to be cast for different parties in 2015. And it’s intriguing to see where they’ll go. […]
[…] We thought you might be interested to see some of the working of this post from yesterday. Of the 2.4m votes cast in Scotland in the 2010 UK general election, not far short of a million – if a recent YouGov poll is to be believed – are currently likely to be cast for different parties in 2015. And it’s intriguing to see where they’ll go. […]
SNP WARS: The Force Awakens
‘The great appear great, only because you are on your knees’ James Larkin trade unionist c. 1914.
The only reason Scotland is not a vibrant independant state (it remains a country), is a lack of self belief amongst it’s people.
In Ireland, one of the very few positives from ‘The Years of The Madness’ aka The Celtic Tiger’, was the sunder ing of that particular ball and chain (to be quickly replaced by another one, unfortunately, but ‘sin scéal eile’) (that’s another story)