In our latest Panelbase poll, we asked the same independence question we asked in the last one, and got much the same answer. (Technically the indy vote went up by about a sixth of one percent, but that’s statistically meaningless.)
That’s a bit disappointing after the events of recent weeks, but also not very surprising – after all, the way the question is framed pretty much guarantees at least 38% of the population will choose the second option straight off the bat.
Much more interesting is the question we asked next.
Political pundits on both sides on the border often marvel at how the SNP appear able to defy the normal rules of electoral gravity, still holding a comfortable double-digit lead in the polls after more than 11 years in power. But there’s no great mystery to it, and the answer is simple, in several senses of that word.
Ladies and gentlemen, allow us to present to you Scottish Labour’s offering for who’d be in charge of all the Scottish Government’s money if the SNP weren’t in power – finance spokesman James Kelly MSP.
As alert readers will know, we’ve heard little from the Unionist parties in Scotland over the last couple of years but “SCOTLAND SAID NO!”, “SCOTLAND DOESN’T WANT ANOTHER REFERENDUM!” and “WHAT PART OF NO DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND?”
That clutch of blunt, angry slogans was (and remains) pretty much the entire Scottish Conservatives manifesto, for example, and it rests on the claim – based on some extremely misleading selective reading of opinion polls – that the nation is implacably opposed to a second vote. The reality, as we know, is somewhat more balanced. But it’s never been quite THIS balanced before.
We’ve just got the results back from a new Panelbase poll of Scottish voters. As ever there’s some fascinating stuff in there, but we’ll start with the headline voting numbers:
HOLYROOD VOTING INTENTION (excl DK, chgs vs Dec 2017)
SNP 41 (+2)
Con 27 (-1)
Lab 22 (-3)
LD 6 (-)
Grn 2 (-)
This year’s Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has found, yet again, that Scottish people trust their government in Holyrood vastly more than they trust the one in Westminster. The figures transcend party loyalties, with far more people saying they trust the Scottish Government than vote for the SNP.
Trust in both governments was down by five points, which meant the Scottish Government had lost 7.6% of its trust (66 down to 61) while the UK government had lost 20% of its trust (25 down to 20).
Now let’s see how two newspapers owned by the same company reported the news.
The Sunday Times puts some poll results in an interesting frame today:
And readers who’ve learned anything at all from this site over the last six years will be looking at that tweet and immediately wondering “what AREN’T we being told there?”
And to be absolutely fair to the Scottish Lib Dem leader, he’s always been consistent in his beliefs, such as the view that elected members should be given a second chance when they’ve committed a minor misdemeanour, and NOT have to (for example) stand down and face re-election.
So as we’re busy today we’ll just refer you to some of the previous occasions we’ve covered it, because literally everything about it is exactly the same now as it was then.
agentx on A matter of class: “Bloody Forestry and Land Scotland (FLS) what are they like eh!” Dec 24, 21:30
Willie on A matter of class: “As someone once said there’s three in this relationship. Diana, Charles and could it be perchance our current queen, our…” Dec 24, 19:29
Cynicus on A matter of class: “Andy Ellis says: 24 December, 2025 at 1:15 pm “Ah hae ma doots bud! I’ve been posting since well before…” Dec 24, 19:09
Dan on A matter of class: “I hear next year’s Speyside Stages car rally based around Elgin has been cancelled due to not being able to…” Dec 24, 18:33
Hatey McHateface on A matter of class: “I’m sure you’re right, willie. And I’m sure the authorities will be all over it soon. But first they have…” Dec 24, 18:10
Hatey McHateface on A matter of class: “As always, sam, more illuminating for what is omitted rather than what is said. Where are the figures permitting comparisons…” Dec 24, 17:50
Hatey McHateface on A matter of class: “C’moan noo, Andy. I’m certain Twatty is spelled wi twa ‘T’s.” Dec 24, 17:36
Hatey McHateface on A matter of class: “I make it 21%, Stu. Are you rounding up or rounding down? And Stu, why aren’t you posting under your…” Dec 24, 17:29
Dan on A matter of class: “And a quick update for that third comment from Andy. “moonhowling, nativist, bigotry, ethnic nationalism, blood and soil nationalism, Siol…” Dec 24, 17:26
Andy Ellis on A matter of class: “@twatbynametwatbynature The onus is on you to prove that moonhowling nativist bigotry is the norm Twaty. There’s oodles of evidence…” Dec 24, 17:20
Dan on A matter of class: “Just for adjudication purposes for those playing Franchise Fanny Crimbo Bingo Numberwang! In this comment trail currently including two of…” Dec 24, 17:12
twathater on A matter of class: ““Those who have apparently abandoned civic nationalism in favour of divisive ethno-nationalism always take umbrage when I say that they…” Dec 24, 17:03
Andy Ellis on A matter of class: “@sam 1.57pm Yeah, I think that looks familiar: I’m not convinced by the (at least to my mind) simplistic correlation…” Dec 24, 16:21
DaveL on A matter of class: ““But then think back to the Jimmy Saville scandal and who was close to that.” Willie at 1.57pm. That’d be…” Dec 24, 15:12
agentx on A matter of class: “willie says: “Anyway, child abuse, even when in Scotland, seems not to be an issue for our athorities – or…” Dec 24, 15:11
James Cheyne on A matter of class: “agentx, Thanks for that info, Local Councils do not give out planning permission very easily in Scotland especially in Green…” Dec 24, 15:10
James Cheyne on A matter of class: “DaveL, Thank you, Let Scots make our own mistakes, stop telling us what mistakes to make. Much appreciated.” Dec 24, 15:02
agentx on A matter of class: ““7 March 2025 Demolition work has started at a cottage in the Highlands formerly owned by Jimmy Savile. The site’s…” Dec 24, 14:59
James Cheyne on A matter of class: “Willie, No you are not missing the mark, Jimmy Savelle even had a holiday cottage in Scotland. While the crown…” Dec 24, 14:44
I. Despair on A matter of class: “A Ferrari? Doesn’t appeal as a daily driver. Too cramped inside. I’d happily have a shot in one at a…” Dec 24, 14:40
sam on A matter of class: ““Scots take an inclusive approach to independence Only 50% of those who support Scottish independence say that being born in…” Dec 24, 14:23
DaveL on A matter of class: “I reckon about twenty percent of posts btl here belong to Hatey. I think most are in reply and all…” Dec 24, 14:16
James Cheyne on A matter of class: “The difference between the two is the English approach to the Scottish approach, English Approach. One tells, lies or bullies…” Dec 24, 14:11
Stuart MacKay on A matter of class: “Andy. you’re looking at it from a values and morals perspective. You don’t seemed to have learned anything from the…” Dec 24, 14:01
willie on A matter of class: “Scotland the colony. Scotland the corrupt. Its all in play as the establishment and the system reveal time after time.…” Dec 24, 13:57
sam on A matter of class: “Maybe you might look at the survey work by McCrone and Keating#. I posted a link above. It looks at…” Dec 24, 13:57
James Cheyne on A matter of class: “One wonders at the intellectual Standard required for tribunals or Judges in Scotland if they have to turn to artificial…” Dec 24, 13:49
Charles Findlay on A matter of class: “My granny used to say a lot of things, and I remember them all. “If wishes were horses, beggars would…” Dec 24, 13:36
Hatey McHateface on A matter of class: “My dear auld mammie used to say the lowest form of humour is limbo stand-up.” Dec 24, 13:34
Andy Ellis on A matter of class: “@cynicus 11.02AM It is you who are the newbie, sunshine. I have been around here a LOT longer than you…” Dec 24, 13:15
