It’s Monday morning, readers, so welcome once again to the world’s favourite situation comedy, the United Kingdom.
The current position is that absolutely nobody has the slightest idea what’s going to happen this week, or today, or by lunchtime. The Prime Minister is as we speak being taken to court (again), and a whole series of votes in the House Of Commons may or may not take place and may or may not determine anything.
But there’s one particularly interesting thing going on.
As we write this, Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal appears to hang in the balance. According to Sky News this morning the arithmetic is poised on a knife-edge.
The four “in play” groups down the middle of the graphic are, from the top: three Tory “Spartans” (hardcore Brexiters who might yet back the deal), 19 Labour MPs who’ve suggested they might do so for various reasons, 20 former-Tory “rebels” who had the whip removed by Johnson for voting to block no-deal, and 14 independents, mainly from the “Change UK” wing or whatever they’re called this week.
The government needs 36 of the 56 to vote with it to get the deal through, and can probably count on most of the 20 former Tories. Labour sources are suggesting, quite plausibly, that double-figure numbers of their 19 will also back the deal. So it’s close.
If it passes, England and Wales will get what they voted for (Brexit), Northern Ireland will – after a fashion – get what it voted for (effectively staying in the EU), and Scotland will get shafted. It’ll be placed at a significant economic disadvantage to NI, at a likely severe cost in jobs and investment. The nation which voted the most decisively on Brexit (for either option) will be the only one not to get its democratic wishes respected.
And slightly surprisingly, the whole UK thinks that’s unfair.
As we write this, in between bouts of weeping with exhausted misery, frustration and rage, Her Majesty’s Opposition’s interminable will-they-won’t-they game of attempting – maybe, one day, perhaps – to bring down the government and force a new election leading to a new EU referendum continues.
And as the SNP in particular devotes huge amounts of energy to trying to stop Brexit, against the wishes of its own voters, we wondered how the public not just in Scotland but in the two constituent nations of the UK that voted Leave felt about that.
It’s been quite the week so far. For the vile and sickening crime of [check notes] finding out what SNP voters were thinking about the important political issues of the moment, we’ve had (especially on Facebook) a two-day barrage of stuff like this, and worse:
So, y’know, on with what we always do: reporting the facts.
Yesterday’s poll results attracted quite a surprising amount of anger from people who apparently don’t consider it at all important to the cause of independence to find out what people intending to vote SNP at the next Holyrood election think.
They’re probably not going to like these ones much either.
A third of SNP voters are unconvinced by the First Minister’s constant assurances that a second indyref will be delivered in the next 18 months. But the related question posed by several readers yesterday was “If you don’t think the SNP has a coherent strategy for securing a new vote, what would YOU do, Mister Smartypants?”
Which is annoying, because it’s a question we’ve answered in various contexts half a dozen times in the past year and a bit. So we thought we’d see if voters had been paying any more attention.
Remember this guy? Go on, give it a minute, it’ll come to you.
He popped up today to chuck in his tuppence-worth about inflammatory language in politics, and how – like everything else bad – it all started with vile cybernats in 2014 (because as you’ll of course remember, it was Yes supporters who never shut up about “surrendering”) and has now sullied even the dignified halls of Westminster.
You now have less than 24 hours left to secure your copy of our intermittent cartoonist Mr Cairns’ latest beautifully-crafted volume of biting political satire featuring a cute lion. (No, not the one pictured below.)
For the love of God please don’t upset him or we’ll get more like this.
So the Supreme Court has delivered its brutal verdict. The prorogation of Parliament was completely unlawful and now, in effect, never happened. Parliament is officially still in session. The same Parliament that has stupendously failed to solve Brexit for three years can reconvene and continue to fail to solve it. What now?
Jeremy Corbyn stood up a few minutes ago at the Labour conference and demanded that Boris Johnson stand down immediately and hold a general election, as did several other opposition leaders. Which, alert readers may recall, is what Johnson tried to do, twice, barely a fortnight ago, and was blocked by the opposition.
Presumably if he tries again, they all now have to cooperate and vote for it, even though the dissolution of Parliament would render the Benn bill requiring him to ask the EU for an extension first null and void. So there’ll be a general election held on the subject of “Who rules the country – the people or the courts?”, which is what Johnson wanted all along. Um, victory?
.
PS Fun trivia fact: UK electoral law requires 25 working days between the dissolution of Parliament and the date of a general election. There are exactly 27 working days (inclusive) between now and 31 October.
Onlooker on Yelling at the tide: “Any updates on the Alex Salmond case? I hope it’s still going ahead. Be quite willing to kick money into…” Jan 22, 03:08
Saffron Robe on Yelling at the tide: “Well done, Stuart. Keep at them. No one is above the law and that includes the judiciary.” Jan 22, 01:06
AdamH on Yelling at the tide: “What would happen to an FOI request for the “correspondence with judicial colleague”?” Jan 22, 00:52
Jason Smoothpiece on Yelling at the tide: “Harrumph Know your place man.” Jan 21, 22:37
Marie on Yelling at the tide: “I have as much confidence in the Scottish judiciary as I have in Scotland’s politicians – zero.” Jan 21, 22:19
sarah on Yelling at the tide: “@ Dave G: “Judge Susan Walker – a member of the Diversity Taskforce…set up by the Senior President of Tribunals.”…” Jan 21, 22:08
Scot Finlayson on Yelling at the tide: “If there was a choice,and the way the world is unravelling, who knows, would you rather be governed by Westminster…” Jan 21, 21:45
Hatey McHateface on The Secondhand Amendment: “I hate when everybody ignores your posts, Northy. Something about the pathos of it all makes me well up. You…” Jan 21, 20:41
Hatey McHateface on Yelling at the tide: “Really, Northy, buy a copy of Alf’s book? First, define the difference between sucking sycophancy and non-sucking sycophancy. Those of…” Jan 21, 20:30
Hatey McHateface on The Secondhand Amendment: “You’ve got the gas chambers and the incinerators, Confused. Let’s hope that’s enough to get Barbie back. This place just…” Jan 21, 19:52
Hatey McHateface on Yelling at the tide: “@Alf Baird The “coloniser’s historic, economic and cultural needs” would have been best served by Alex Salmond being banged up.…” Jan 21, 19:43
Willie on Yelling at the tide: “Good stuff again Rev. Your letter to the Tribunal President brings into sharp focus the very grave issues of concern…” Jan 21, 19:38
Hatey McHateface on Yelling at the tide: “Sorry, Northy, you’ve already self-id-ed as a shit today. Self-id as a clown in a few days when the alert…” Jan 21, 19:34
Hatey McHateface on Yelling at the tide: “Cracker of a post, Twat H. No random caps anywhere. You must have been a good boy. Looks like Santa…” Jan 21, 19:26
twathater on Yelling at the tide: “I have no doubt Professor Baird that irrespective of what you post Hatey McFuckwit would have to comment on it…” Jan 21, 17:22
sarah on The Secondhand Amendment: “Andy Wiltshire: “Does the entire Scottish judicial system have membership of the same Edinburgh club?” Is this the New Club…” Jan 21, 17:14
Colin Alexander on Yelling at the tide: “Remember: In Scotland, Public body / professional body complaint processes are designed to fob you off and frustrate any attempts…” Jan 21, 17:12
Cynicus on Yelling at the tide: “Ian Smith says: “Bear in mind that AI can be prompted to agree with the type of query it is…” Jan 21, 16:57
Northcode on Yelling at the tide: ““What an utter clown you are “Northcode” And who was it who forced me to run away from home in…” Jan 21, 16:56
Lorna Campbell on Yelling at the tide: “No legislation in existence, in Scotland or the UK, gives any man the right to enter female spaces, even where…” Jan 21, 16:31
Northcode on Yelling at the tide: “And you, Father, are a total embarrassment… period. Not least because of your over-reliance on the exclamation mark and the…” Jan 21, 16:00
Northcode on Yelling at the tide: ““Give up son…” No, Father… I will never give up, I will never surrender. And know this, oh giver of…” Jan 21, 15:52
Insider on Yelling at the tide: “Christ ! What an utter clown you are “Northcode” Give up son ! You’re a total embarrassment to the Indy…” Jan 21, 15:15
Northcode on Yelling at the tide: “Here’s anither yin taken fae the online “Dictionars o the Scots Leid”: SIN, adv., prep., conj. Also syn, sen, san(e),…” Jan 21, 14:58
Alf Baird on Yelling at the tide: ““the Scottish Legal System operates in a context free vacuum” The basic principle of any colonial justice system is that…” Jan 21, 14:51
lothianlad on Yelling at the tide: “stick with it warrior Stu! Thank you for all you do for truth and justice” Jan 21, 14:49
