Any rational assessment of Scottish (or indeed UK or world) politics at the moment tends to be negative and depressing, so since it’s a new year we thought we’d make an extra-special effort at writing something positive.
Unfortunately that does require us to enter the realm of fantasy. But hey, everybody needs a little holiday from time to time, right?
So things are getting pretty strange.
Polling in Scotland, the UK and Wales in the last few days has shown Great Britain taking a fairly heavy swerve to the right after just five months of Sir Keir Starmer’s government. Labour now lead Reform (who have five seats to Labour’s 411) by just three points in the UK and are even more remarkably now in THIRD place in Wales, a country where the party has won every single election for over 100 years.
Scotland, meanwhile, is heading for a hung Parliament in 2026 in which – as this site has been telling its readers for the last year and a half – the only possibility of a stable administration will be an SNP-Labour coalition.
We live, as they say, in interesting times.
The proceedings at the Supreme Court this week were a tough follow even if you could get the court’s abominably bad livestream to work. They’re all archived here now, but non-lawyers will probably glaze over quickly during the nine hours of intense legalese.
We’re not allowed to clip up any illustrative sections, on pain of possible contempt of court, so perhaps the best way to explain the key parts of what happened in a vaguely comprehensible way is by showing you some commentary from social media.
Honestly not sure which of these is the most nauseating.
Click the pic to enlarge, if you can stomach it.
In many ways, the fabricated, hysterical furore of Humza Yousaf Vs Elon Musk is the ultimate in summer-silly-season politics stories.
Absurdly plainly, the former First Minister ISN’T going to take any legal action against the billionaire owner of Twitter. He only likes bullying small nurseries, and even then he doesn’t follow through. He didn’t even sue us for calling him racist a few months ago, so there’s zero chance he’s going to square up to the world’s richest man.
We’ve been off for a little break in the country, and as far as we can tell we’ve missed absolutely nothing in the moribund world of Scottish politics. We did, however, arrive back just in time for something mildly interesting, or at least revealing.
It’s the latest episode of a new podcast by veteran Scottish political journalist and broadcaster Bernard Ponsonby and jobbing opinion columnist Alex Massie, inventively titled The Ponsonby And Massie Podcast.
The first 35 minutes or so weren’t very noteworthy, other than the curious omission – when predicting the makeup of the next Scottish Government – of the idea of a Labour-SNP coalition, which to this site remains by far the most practical and logical outcome of the 2026 Holyrood election.
But then things got a little feisty.
David Davis may be the last of his kind – a libertarian Tory from a council-scheme and grammar-school background, and also one of the few remaining big beasts occupying the political jungle of the back benches.
(He could in fact have been Tory leader, and would have been if David Cameron and George Osborne hadn’t teamed up to defeat him in 2005 after he won the first ballot.)
He resigned from Cameron’s shadow cabinet in June 2008 on a principled issue of civil liberties (winning the subsequent by-election with a massive 72% of the vote) and from Theresa May’s Cabinet over Brexit, and he was one of a tiny handful of MPs prepared to defend Julian Assange from extradition.
And in 2022 it was Davis who rose from the back benches to tell Boris Johnson to “in the name of God, go”.
So on the rare occasions when he leads a Commons adjournment debate, as he did last Thursday evening, those with an educated eye for politics sit up and take notice.
Well, we hope you all listened to us in January and got your bets in.
Enjoy your winnings. Because the real work starts now.
It’s almost 20 years since this last happened.
The 2005 election was the last time the Daily Record and the Scottish Sun both endorsed the same party at a UK general election. So, y’know, something is going on.
Survation released their final projection for the election last night. It’s quite a boring image because they had to make it mostly grey to correctly illustrate the margin of Labour’s lead.
Those ranges are substantial, but even their BEST-case scenario for the Tories is below 100 seats. The WORST-case scenario for Labour – 447 seats – still gives them a majority of 244, which would smash the all-time record of 209 set by the Tories exactly 100 years ago. (The best case is a dizzying 384.)
Scotland is probably the hardest area of the UK to call. In most polls there are only a few points between Labour and the SNP, and depending on how the votes are spread and who’s best at getting their support out either could still win the most seats.
That won’t, of course, make the slightest difference to the governance of the UK for the next five years. Even 57 Scottish MPs out of 57, for any party, would be completely meaningless to a government with a majority of over 200.
But it’ll make a big difference to the independence movement. Because if the SNP manages to hold onto to a significant proportion of its seats, we can all wave goodbye to the slightest chance of progress for another decade on top of the one that’s been wasted since Alex Salmond resigned.
Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary. (More)
