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The hearth of Pyrrhus 465

Posted on May 14, 2016 by

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An act of provocation 480

Posted on May 12, 2016 by

We’re still on a break. But we’ve had another response from the BBC.

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The stagnant pool 400

Posted on May 11, 2016 by

We’re supposed to be taking a few days off, but it’s been tipping it down outside for 36 solid hours, so when an alert reader emailed us a question relating to this article from Monday, we couldn’t help but go and research it just to pass some time.

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They’d asked how many of the Tory MSPs elected last Thursday had been rejected by the voters of a constituency seat on the same day, and we were startled by the answer – of the 24 Conservative members of the Scottish Parliament elected on the list last week, every single one was also a failed constituency candidate.

And that got us thinking.

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The separation of goals 790

Posted on May 09, 2016 by

In amongst a torrent of pretty mad analysis of the election result at the weekend, we noticed the most insane reason yet suggested for the loss of the SNP’s majority:

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The co-founder of a much-lauded but little-read pro-independence website asserted that the SNP were cruising to victory until the Nats got the backing of the Scottish Sun and Nicola Sturgeon was pictured posing with the front cover endorsing her party.

The whole litany of gaping flaws in that argument is something the Yes movement has needed to talk about for some considerable time now. So let’s bite the bullet and do it.

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The chasm between words and actions 427

Posted on May 08, 2016 by

We’ll just leave this here:

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Actual percentage of female MSPs returned in the 2016 Scottish Parliament election:

Labour 46%, SNP 43%, Conservative 19%, Green 16%, Lib Dem 0%.

Hmm.

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The Unsackables 197

Posted on May 08, 2016 by

A few weeks ago we rather cruelly highlighted an old post from Kezia Dugdale’s blog in which she bitterly bemoaned the practice of candidates who’d been rejected by voters in constituency seats still being able to get into Parliament via the “back door” of the regional lists.

Angrily Dugdale raged:

“Alex Salmond will try every trick in the book to get elected to the Scottish Parliament. Standing for both a constituency and a list seat this May doesn’t even register in his party’s mindset as being inappropriate.“

She also had a swing at a Lib Dem MSP:

“Mike Pringle has a majority of 158. He is I think, the third most marginal MSP in Scotland. Aware of his vulnerability, Mike has put his name forward for the Liberal Democrat Lothian List which means it’s nearly impossible to get rid of him at the next election. How unfair is that?”

So, y’know, she had this coming.

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What happened and what happens next 356

Posted on May 07, 2016 by

The social-media reaction to this post yesterday was astonishing. Merely pointing out calmly and quietly that our warnings before the election had been entirely vindicated, and that everyone else’s unequivocal assertions of a guaranteed SNP majority had been the rubbish we always said they were, unleashed a torrent of abuse equal to any we’ve ever endured in the last four and a half years – distinguished only by the fact that so much of this one came from supposed Yes supporters.

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But no amount of screaming and shouting will change the facts. Let’s look at them.

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The Drop 155

Posted on May 07, 2016 by

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Don’t say we didn’t tell you 535

Posted on May 06, 2016 by

The first (and from our perspective, most important) thing to note is that independence is now categorically and unequivocally off the table for at least half a decade.

The failure of the SNP to secure another Holyrood majority last night (for the want of just 360 votes) combined with the Greens’ weasel-worded opposition to a second referendum – and make no mistake, opposition is what it is – will ensure that even if the rUK votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes overwhelmingly to stay in, there will be no indyref before the next Holyrood election in 2021.

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Whatever else happens, you can take that to the bank.

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The checklist 879

Posted on May 05, 2016 by

The voting’s over. Let’s see how these get on, shall we?

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The cliffhanger 272

Posted on May 05, 2016 by

Polling day is here.

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But there’s more to today’s election than the fate of Kezia Dugdale.

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The independence dividend 393

Posted on May 04, 2016 by

In so far as this Holyrood election has been a battle at all, the battleground for it has been tax. Not only the Unionist opposition but the pro-indy left have attacked the SNP for timidity over its plans to keep income tax rates the same as the rest of the UK, with only a tweak on the threshold for the top rate.

In their defence the Nats have deployed a line that’s been widely derided as an old Tory argument derived from the so-called “Laffer curve”, but in fact is nothing of the sort. It centres around the ways wealthy people legally shield their income from tax, but there’s a very specific and very important wrinkle that applies only in the particular case of a devolved, not independent, Scotland.

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It’s not at all complicated but it’s absolutely crucial, and it’s barely been discussed on even the most superficial level in any supposed analyses of the situation undertaken in the media, so as usual we suppose it’s going to be down to us to do the job.

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    • Andy Wiltshire on Whatever Can Have Happened?: “It’s colonialism! Am I the winner?” Sep 30, 14:50
    • Colin Dawson on Whatever Can Have Happened?: “In March 2026, just two months ahead of the last Holyrood election, the Scottish Government published an initial internal report…” Sep 30, 14:30
    • Willie on Whatever Can Have Happened?: “Cannot for the life of me guess why this has arisen Rev. Maybe Big John of the Independent minds she’s…” Sep 30, 14:15
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: “@Aidan You can see why it’s so important to sell the “colony” lie. Real former colonies don’t have to shoulder…” Sep 30, 13:52
    • Hatey Mchateface on The Turning Point: “Farage comes out swinging: “The state pension is not a handout, nor an act of government charity. It is a…” Sep 30, 13:34
    • Aidan on The Turning Point: “Yes and you could always take the view that since Scotland would be a new state, it cannot have any…” Sep 30, 13:26
    • Spartan 117 on The Turning Point: “A default and “clean start” would be utterly catastrophic and yet, arguably, the only remaining option for iScot to break…” Sep 30, 13:25
    • Spartan 117 on The Turning Point: ““Westminster has finally lost control” I’d argue we are already there, have been for several years and that most onlookers…” Sep 30, 13:20
    • Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on The Turning Point: “The Irish in me suggests perhaps better not to be starting from here: Anyway, as indicated in the past, my…” Sep 30, 13:03
    • sam on The Turning Point: “The weak of understanding, such as wee Johnny Main attribute my posting of links and quotations from them as being…” Sep 30, 13:02
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: “Very interesting what the former “green beacon”, Germany, is doing in the areas of coal mining and the use of…” Sep 30, 12:00
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: “@CC The US has expended too much of its arsenal in the ME this year. It will take years to…” Sep 30, 11:47
    • Aidan on The Turning Point: “Noting that this was written 16-years ago of course. There is no way that rUK Government would be willing to…” Sep 30, 11:42
    • Aidan on The Turning Point: “Assuming that an IScotland could negotiate a share of the UK’s national debt on a per capita basis (not an…” Sep 30, 11:33
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: “Sure, sam, if one side starts by making all kinds of convenient assumptions, then the final settlement can be massaged…” Sep 30, 11:29
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: ““The UK is rapidly collapsing” I agree. I’m wondering what the catalyst will be. The event that finally puts it…” Sep 30, 11:20
    • Captain Caveman on The Turning Point: “@Hatey If all those things you say about the rapidly changing tech of modern warfare are true – and personally…” Sep 30, 11:17
    • sam on The Turning Point: “Interesting post by Jim Cuthbert on how the negotiations on Scotland’s share of UK debt might be shaped post independence.…” Sep 30, 11:11
    • Captain Caveman on The Turning Point: “The only “way” out of it that I can see (if you could call it any sort of solution, probably…” Sep 30, 11:11
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: “@Spartan An iScotland could default. Cold turkey. I’m not advocating it, but it’s an option. It would mean probably 20…” Sep 30, 10:58
    • Spartan 117 on The Turning Point: “Yep. Uncomfortable facts. The UK state finances are ruinous like most Western nations. It’s difficult to see any way out…” Sep 30, 10:18
    • Spartan 117 on The Turning Point: “Good post. ArAndeh very much set out his stall yesterday – Moar Communism is the way, as is outsourcing democracy…” Sep 30, 10:13
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: ““Nail hit firmly on the head Hatey” Ground Zero for fixing any problem is to be realistic about what the…” Sep 30, 10:10
    • willie on The Turning Point: “Sadly we have seen the plunder of a country’s resources before for the benefit of others. That is what empire…” Sep 30, 09:19
    • willie on The Turning Point: “¬”the infrastructure to capture all this “free” leccy is being mostly paid for by others – English bill payers, multinational…” Sep 30, 09:02
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: “It’s truly extraordinary to see the differences between the reviews of Andeh’s stage performance yesterday. Some on the progressive left…” Sep 30, 08:56
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: “Back in the day they probably did “used to obstruct and sabotage the Scottish Nationalist movement”. But they’ll have been…” Sep 30, 08:22
    • Hatey McHateface on The Turning Point: ““a reported one third of Scotlands electricity” If only that was true, Scotland would be on course to make some…” Sep 30, 08:10
    • Alf Baird on The Turning Point: “““Civil servants, MI5, Special Branch used to obstruct and sabotage the Scottish Nationalist movement.” Sounds exactly like what occurred in…” Sep 30, 07:50
    • Willie on The Turning Point: “So planning proposal.has now dropped to build the world’s largest data centre in Scotland. And its power usage will be…” Sep 30, 07:17
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