You win a historic third election with a second massive landslide, getting more than twice as many seats as your nearest challenger – the first time such a thing has ever happened in a Holyrood election – on the back of what’s (self-evidently) by and large a very popular policy programme and record, and before you’ve even taken your seats in the chamber all the parties you just thrashed out of sight line up to explain how you’ve been doing everything wrong.
And as alliances go, they don’t get much less holy.
We’re supposed to be taking a few days off, but it’s been tipping it down outside for 36 solid hours, so when an alert reader emailed us a question relating to this article from Monday, we couldn’t help but go and research it just to pass some time.
They’d asked how many of the Tory MSPs elected last Thursday had been rejected by the voters of a constituency seat on the same day, and we were startled by the answer – of the 24 Conservative members of the Scottish Parliament elected on the list last week, every single one was also a failed constituency candidate.
In amongst a torrent of pretty mad analysis of the election result at the weekend, we noticed the most insane reason yet suggested for the loss of the SNP’s majority:
The co-founder of a much-lauded but little-read pro-independence website asserted that the SNP were cruising to victory until the Nats got the backing of the Scottish Sun and Nicola Sturgeon was pictured posing with the front cover endorsing her party.
The whole litany of gaping flaws in that argument is something the Yes movement has needed to talk about for some considerable time now. So let’s bite the bullet and do it.
A few weeks ago we rather cruelly highlighted an old post from Kezia Dugdale’s blog in which she bitterly bemoaned the practice of candidates who’d been rejected by voters in constituency seats still being able to get into Parliament via the “back door” of the regional lists.
The social-media reaction to this post yesterday was astonishing. Merely pointing out calmly and quietly that our warnings before the election had been entirely vindicated, and that everyone else’s unequivocal assertions of a guaranteed SNP majority had been the rubbish we always said they were, unleashed a torrent of abuse equal to any we’ve ever endured in the last four and a half years – distinguished only by the fact that so much of this one came from supposed Yes supporters.
But no amount of screaming and shouting will change the facts. Let’s look at them.
The first (and from our perspective, most important) thing to note is that independence is now categorically and unequivocally off the table for at least half a decade.
The failure of the SNP to secure another Holyrood majority last night (for the want of just 360 votes) combined with the Greens’ weasel-worded opposition to a second referendum – and make no mistake, opposition is what it is – will ensure that even if the rUK votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes overwhelmingly to stay in, there will be no indyref before the next Holyrood election in 2021.
Whatever else happens, you can take that to the bank.
John McNab on The Shortest Day: “Why shouldn’t John Swinney “lustily belt out” the National Anthem? There’s no clear indication that this chimera of “independence” which…” Aug 30, 05:58
Peter McAvoy on The Shortest Day: “Early last month the USA celebrated the 250th anniversary of independence I don’t recall on any documentaries,books magazines or online…” Aug 30, 02:19
Saffron Robe on The Shortest Day: “That’s a very good point, James. Why should we vote to leave something we never voted for in the first…” Aug 30, 01:26
robertkknight on The Shortest Day: “Once upon a time, the raison d’être of the SNP was to restore Scottish Independence. In my day, this resulted…” Aug 30, 01:04
James on The Slowest Dawning: “Ah, but wha needs Fannny when we’ve got twa redundant “Pricks” like youse?” Aug 30, 00:37
Young Lochinvar on The Shortest Day: “S117 Alf is right. A lot of us felt very angry with the “my heart said.. but my head said”…” Aug 29, 22:38
Effijy on The Shortest Day: “Reform are right wing fascists who like Trump are there to make the rich richer and using corruption at the…” Aug 29, 22:14
sarah on The Shortest Day: “As someone said here the other day “even Homer nods”! Geoff is a founder of the SSRG, I believe, and…” Aug 29, 22:05
Spartan 117 on The Shortest Day: “A good post Dan and, regarding your closing sentence, you’ve only got to read anything on the internet to see…” Aug 29, 21:55
Spartan 117 on The Shortest Day: “A good post and, regarding your closing sentence, you’ve only got to read anything on the internet to see that…” Aug 29, 21:53
Aidan on The Shortest Day: “I bet you’re popular in the village cracking on like that. But just so you know, I have a V8…” Aug 29, 21:35
Spartan 117 on The Shortest Day: ““Yoon”… To quote your favourite reply, “LOL”. There’s nothing “Yoon” about me. Last time round, I paid attention to the…” Aug 29, 21:35
Alf Baird on The Shortest Day: ““I voted “No” in 2014” You and others like you deprived us Scots our freedom. English Tory rule that appealing,…” Aug 29, 20:55
James on The Shortest Day: “The SNP troughers want gravy, now. As you know [and as has been explained numerous times by this sites author]…” Aug 29, 20:06
James on The Shortest Day: “Fish Face is the Chief Clown as you well know.” Aug 29, 20:01
Shug on The Shortest Day: “I wonder why nobe of them ecer have the balls to twll HO the f…. Off I stand by my…” Aug 29, 19:56
James on The Shortest Day: “That right, aye? Aye, nae rigged postal votes, nae peculiar toon cooncil type franchise, nae ootside political or media interference.…” Aug 29, 19:48
panda paws on The Shortest Day: ““John Swinney’s already upped the stakes by standing in front of a Glasgow crowd in his shortbread-tin outfit and lustily…” Aug 29, 19:12
Spartan 117 on The Shortest Day: “Errrrmmm, we had an independence vote in 2014 which resulted in independence being rejected. Voter turnout was very high (85%)…” Aug 29, 18:47
Dan on The Shortest Day: ““It was outside our price range, but we decided to do the right thing, sacrifice somewhere else and move to…” Aug 29, 18:45
James on The Slowest Dawning: “Aww…how sweet. Now, any Scot knows that one London registered Unionist party is much the same as another, but call…” Aug 29, 18:15
James Che on The Shortest Day: “The Scottish people themselves never voted to join a union, so why do a % of Scots need to vote…” Aug 29, 18:12
Dan on The Shortest Day: “Aye, TH, pretty much my thoughts too. Now if for example Dave Doogan had used his parliamentary privileged position to…” Aug 29, 18:09
Spartan 117 on The Shortest Day: “It’s literally written in the article and directly quoted… If people of your comprehension skills have a vote, is it…” Aug 29, 18:05
factchecker on The Shortest Day: “I often agree with Robert, but not here: “It (the SNP)has no desire for Independence, for to achieve such would…” Aug 29, 18:03
Spartan 117 on The Shortest Day: “What’s really shocking is anyone being in any way surprised at any of this. Post-Alex the SNP were always more…” Aug 29, 18:02
James Che on The Shortest Day: “Scotland declaring independence, UDI from a voluntary union, just leave and end the voluntary bit. Only Englands parliament is doing…” Aug 29, 17:59
James Che on The Shortest Day: “The independence door has been ajar for years, the SNP are just to Scared an feared to go near it…” Aug 29, 17:40
